Group 1: Stock and Bond - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2] - Market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, and it is advisable to hold light long positions in treasury bonds [2] Group 2: Black Sector - Major steel mills in Shanxi Province have restricted crude steel production by about 6 million tons. Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished products may shrink. Attention should be paid to the implementation of specific policy documents. There is no obvious increase on the demand side, and the black sector has risen significantly driven by sentiment [3] Group 3: Gold - Trump's latest tariff policy has boosted the market's risk - aversion sentiment and the price of gold, but the rising US dollar has suppressed gold. The minutes of the Fed's June meeting are hawkish, and the market expects the Fed to postpone the time of interest rate cuts. Gold is expected to maintain high - level consolidation [4] Group 4: Logs - The spot market price is running weakly. The price in the Shandong market has dropped by 10 yuan, and the price in the Jiangsu market has remained stable. The expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply center will move down, the supply pressure will ease, and the daily average outbound volume will remain above 60,000 cubic meters. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on log prices [5] Group 5: Natural Rubber - The weather in Southeast Asian producing areas has eased, and rubber tapping work has gradually resumed. The demand for glue series has dragged down, showing a differentiation from the price of raw material cup lump. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has declined. The contradiction between supply and demand at both ends has not been significantly alleviated, and the price of natural rubber continues to be under pressure [6] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The weather in the US Midwest is good, and South American soybeans have a bumper harvest and continue to be exported. Due to the good performance of US soybean export sales, short - covering has boosted US soybeans. About 10 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in July. The oil mill operating rate remains high, the oil mill pick - up volume has declined, the bean meal inventory has continued to rise, and bean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7] Group 7: Oil and Chemicals - The oil price may return to narrow - range fluctuations due to the lack of clear guidance. PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with the oil price; the supply - demand expectation of PTA is weakening and it will follow the cost fluctuations in the short term; although the raw materials have recovered in the short term, the supply - demand of MEG is weakening, and the upward space of the disk is suppressed [8] Group 8: Pig - Currently, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding side is strong, and the pig sales in many northern regions are smooth. The pig price may continue to rise in the short term. After entering July, the pig supply in the south is expected to be tight, which may take over from the north and lead a new round of price increases [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a recent rebound after hitting a near two-week low, driven by market reactions to U.S. trade policy announcements [1][3]. - Gold prices briefly surpassed the 3320 mark, currently stabilizing around 3315, reflecting a strong recovery momentum after a drop to 3282.61 [1]. - The announcement by U.S. President Trump to delay the implementation of tariff agreements until August 1 has temporarily eased market tensions, but ongoing threats of tariffs contribute to increased global trade uncertainty and heightened market risk aversion [1][3]. Group 2 - The gold market is expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern, with a significant focus on the 3330 resistance level, which, if breached, could lead to further upward movement towards the 20-day moving average at 3345 [3]. - A potential downward trend is anticipated, with key support levels identified between 3305-3300, and further support at 3285-3280 if prices fall below 3310 [3]. - A trading strategy suggests short positions around the 3325-3330 range, with a stop-loss at 3338 and a target price between 3315-3300 [4].

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 7 月 10 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场：今天白天，贵金属小幅反弹。伦敦金震荡走高，当前交投于 3323 美元附近，伦敦银则交投于 36.5 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 0.49%，报 773.3 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.22%，报 8919 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数低开后窄幅波动，当前交投于 97.45 附近。 3.美债收益率：10 年美债收益率窄幅波动，当前交投于 4.35%附近。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率高位震荡，当前交投于 7.177 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.特朗普政府动向：①7 月 9 日，特朗普再向 8 国发出关税信函：自 8 月 1 日 起，美国将对菲律 ...

Group 1: Stock and Bond - Stock index long positions are recommended as data reflects China's economic resilience and market risk aversion eases [2] - Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly as market interest rates consolidate and Treasury bonds rebound narrowly [2] Group 2: Black Sector - Shanxi's mainstream steel mills limit crude steel production by about 6 million tons, and the supply of finished products may shrink under the "anti-involution" trend. The black sector has risen significantly driven by sentiment [3] Group 3: Gold - Market risk aversion rebounds due to Trump's tax increase letters, boosting the gold price. Gold is expected to maintain high-level volatility [4] Group 4: Log - Log spot market prices are weak, with a 10-yuan decline in the Jiangsu market. Supply pressure eases, and the impact of log futures delivery on prices should be noted [5] Group 5: Rubber - Weather in Southeast Asian rubber-producing areas eases, but the natural rubber price remains under pressure as supply-demand contradictions are not significantly alleviated [6] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The estimated reduction in US soybean planting area is limited, and the soybean production outlook is positive. With high imports and rising inventory, bean meal is expected to be weak [7] Group 7: Oil and Chemicals - Oil prices face a callback risk, and PX, PTA, and MEC are affected by supply-demand changes and cost fluctuations [8] Group 8: Pig - The pig price may continue to rise in the short term, and southern China may lead a new round of price increases after July [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from 14 countries, which may negatively impact the fragile global economic recovery and increase market risk aversion [2][3] - The new tariffs range from 25% to 40%, affecting countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia, with specific rates assigned to each country [2] - The announcement has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, although the immediate market reaction showed volatility rather than a clear upward trend in gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - The silver market experienced a slight rebound on July 8, trading around $36.75 per ounce, but still shows a downward trend overall [1][4] - If silver prices fall below $36.50, they may approach recent support levels between $35.65 and $35.85 [4]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices are rising, with Chow Sang Sang leading the increase by 8 CNY to 1007 CNY per gram, reclaiming the highest price position [1][3] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold stores has expanded to 38 CNY per gram, with Shanghai China Gold maintaining the lowest price at 969 CNY per gram [1] - Other major brands' gold prices include Lao Miao at 1000 CNY per gram, Liufuk at 1005 CNY per gram, and Zhou Dafu at 1005 CNY per gram, all showing minimal changes [1][3] Group 2 - The gold recovery price has seen a slight increase of 4.3 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands [4] - The recovery prices for various brands are as follows: Cai Bai at 762 CNY, Zhou Sang Sang at 766.1 CNY, Zhou Dafu at 769.5 CNY, and Lao Feng Xiang at 775 CNY [4] - International gold prices experienced a V-shaped movement, with the lowest at 3296.09 USD per ounce and closing at 3336.35 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.04% increase [6] Group 3 - The market is currently influenced by U.S. tariff announcements and geopolitical tensions, which are affecting investor sentiment towards gold [6] - China's central bank reported an increase in gold reserves to 7390 million ounces (approximately 2298.55 tons), marking the eighth consecutive month of accumulation, which strengthens confidence in gold's long-term value [6] - The overall expectation is for gold prices to remain volatile as the market observes developments regarding U.S. tariffs and Middle Eastern tensions [6]

2025年7月7日 星期一 股债 数据体现我国经济韧性,市场避险情绪缓和,建议股指多头持有。市场利率 盘整,国债走势窄幅反弹,国债多头轻仓持有。 黑色 临汾地区部分停产煤矿将陆续复产,"反内卷"下成材供应有望收缩,盘面 迎来反弹,原料跟涨,关注政策的具体文件落地以及需求跟进情况。 黄金 油粗 美豆种植面积预估仅下调有限,美中西部天气持续改善提振大豆产量前景, 南美大豆丰产持续出口。7月份进口大豆到港约1000万吨,油厂开机率维持高 位,油厂提货量高位,豆粕库存快速攀升,豆粕短期偏震荡。 譯張 CPEC+加大增产力度施压油价,PX持续去库,跟随油价波动;PTA供需预期转 弱,短期跟随成本波动;MEC供需趋弱,盘面承压。 生猪 市场对美联储降息预期下降,最早降息时间可能推至10月,关注本周美联储 会议纪要:大而美法案通过. 加之7月9日贸易关税暂停最后期限临近,特朗 普关税信函增加市场不确定性,避险情绪回升。预计黄金维持高位震荡。 原木 现货市价格偏稳运行,到港量预计环增,供应压力回升,日均出库量维持在6 万方以上,供需矛盾不大,关注原木期货首次交割对原木价格的影响。 橡胶 东南亚产区天气趋于缓和,割胶工作逐步恢 ...

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility on July 2, with Bitcoin dropping over 1.5%, Ethereum over 3%, and Cardano over 5% at one point. However, the losses narrowed later in the day [1][2] - Over 100,000 traders were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market within 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $261 million, primarily from long positions [3] Legislative Impact - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill on July 1, raising concerns about the potential increase in the U.S. fiscal deficit and the risk of government default if the spending cap is not raised later this year [3][4] - The bill includes extensions of tax cuts from Trump's first term, cuts to Medicare and nutrition assistance, and significant funding for immigration enforcement and defense [4][5] Economic Projections - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of the bill could increase the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034, with modifications to healthcare programs potentially increasing the uninsured population by nearly 12 million by 2034 [6] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains cautious, with investors awaiting key economic data releases, including initial unemployment claims [3] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks also saw declines, with notable drops in companies like MicroStrategy and Coinbase, reflecting the overall risk-off sentiment in the market [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the rising market risk aversion due to the upcoming U.S. tariff policy deadline, which is influencing investor sentiment towards gold [1] - There is an ongoing analysis regarding whether gold can still be a viable investment option amidst these market conditions [1]

7月2日国内黄金市场动态：品牌金店首饰金价整体持稳，部分金店金价继续上涨。具体来看，老凤祥黄 金今日又涨7元/克，报价1006元/克，成为新的最高价金店。上海中国黄金不涨不跌，报价956元/克，为 最低价金店。今日品牌金店价差50元/克（1006元/克-956元/克），价差再次拉大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览（2025年7月2日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 757.30 | 元/克 | | 菜百黄金 | 752.90 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 751.60 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 755.00 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 760.50 | 元/克 | 说完首饰黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 昨日现货黄金盘中一路上行，最高涨至了3257.78美元/盎司，最终收报3338.17美元/盎司，涨幅1.07%。 今日金价暂时震荡，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3338.96美元/盎司，涨幅0.02%。 昨日金价大幅回升，主要是美国参议院通过了特朗普的"大而美"减税与支出法 ...