股指期货早盘收盘 金十期货4月29日讯，沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约跌0.16%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约跌 0.27%，中证500股指期货（IC）主力合约涨0.19%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约涨0.62%。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策面利好预期与外部不确定性 风险并存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 ...

3 • 国内消息：中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议认为，今年以来 ，各项宏观政策协同发力，经济呈现向好态势。会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 ，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 • 海外消息：欧洲各国央行行长对6月降息信心增强，因欧元区商业增长停滞，工资上涨放缓，通 胀持续降低，欧央行可能在6月降息25个基点，但不会大幅降息，以免引发市场担忧。 • 上周沪深300指数窄幅震荡，成交低位。资金方面，近5个交易日主力资金净流出543亿元，融资 资金下降12亿元；宏观层面，国内经济弱势企稳，财政政策、货币政策保持宽松；风险方面，关 注关税政策扰动、海外经济通胀、地缘政治冲突及美联储相关政策。 • 技术上，沪深300指数位于40均线下方，短期成交缩量，中长期估值位于中低位。观点方面，短 期指数反弹，投资者观望为主。 二、股指期货行情及基差 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/28 一、股指期货宏观及市场展望 股指期货市场周报 • 周度宏观及消息面： • 周度总结及后市展望： 3 股指期货 上周收盘 本周收盘 周涨幅 周成交量 周持仓量 成交量/持仓量 IF2506 3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In April, the market rebounded from the bottom. Wind All - A closed down 3.15% monthly, with different performance among various indices. The US tariff war, though temporarily halted, may recur due to its underlying financial issues. Attention should be paid to the growth indicators in the A - share annual and quarterly reports, and the long - term trend of A - shares is mainly affected by the de - leveraging process of various sectors under the debt cycle. Also, capital expenditure and profitability of domestic and foreign demand - related sectors need to be monitored [3][6]. - The equity risk premium is at a relatively high historical level. Short - term funds support the stock market, but market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the momentum of both fund inflows and market sentiment has weakened weekly [3][9][18]. - Sectors with high overseas revenue are more sensitive to tariff policies as most of them are in the development stage with high capital expenditure and low ROE, adopting a thin - profit - high - turnover model [3][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - **Index Performance**: In April, Wind All - A closed down 3.15% monthly. Specifically, CSI 1000 fell 4.61%, CSI 500 fell 3.94%, SSE 50 fell 0.63%, and SSE 300 fell 2.58%. Weekly, small - cap indices rebounded more strongly, with CSI 1000 rising 1.85% and SSE 50 falling 0.33% [3][6]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US tariff war, which started on April 2nd, has temporarily ended. However, due to the US's insufficient financial account financing ability and the need to balance the current account deficit, tariff policies may change again in the future [3][6]. - **Financial Reports**: At the end of April, A - shares will fully disclose the 2024 annual reports and 2025 first - quarter reports. The market is more concerned about nominal growth data, and the year - on - year revenue growth rate in the financial reports can provide indirect verification. In the first three quarters of 2024, the cumulative year - on - year revenue growth rate of A - shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, excluding the financial sector, was - 1.7% ( - 0.6% in the semi - annual report) [3][6]. 2. Market Indicators - **Interest Rate and Valuation**: At the end of April, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond was 1.67%. The dynamic P/E ratio of Wind All - A was 18.22 times, and the equity risk premium was still at a relatively high historical level. The PE_ttm of CSI 1000 was 37.23, and that of SSE 300 was 12.26, with both valuation levels slightly lower than last month [9]. - **Fund Flow**: From April 1st to April 24th, the net subscription of the four major broad - based index ETFs reached 193.6 billion yuan, with a single - day net subscription of 100.3 billion yuan on April 7th, a record high. However, the margin trading balance decreased by 110.5 billion yuan during the same period, indicating a significant cooling of market sentiment. Weekly, both showed weakening momentum [18]. 3. Overseas Revenue Sectors - **Industry Concentration**: Sectors with high overseas revenue are mainly concentrated in three industrial chains: high - end technology manufacturing, new energy vehicle industry chain, and energy and chemical products [20]. - **Sensitivity to Tariffs**: Most sectors with high overseas revenue are in the development and expansion stage, with high capital expenditure ratios (8% - 18% of revenue). Their ROE is lower than the A - share average (around 7.8%), adopting a thin - profit - high - turnover model, making them more sensitive to tariff policies [20]. 4. Policy and Data - **Domestic Policies**: Multiple policies have been introduced, including a 12 - trillion - yuan debt - resolution plan, a mention of "moderately loose monetary policy", a 2025 GDP growth target of 5%, a fiscal deficit rate of 4%, and a fertility reward policy in Hohhot [21]. - **US Tariff Policy**: The US "reciprocal tariff" plan was implemented on April 3rd. As of April 12, 2025, the US tariff rate on Chinese imports increased by 125%. The US also issued a tariff exemption list and a tariff suspension policy for some countries, while China issued a white paper on Sino - US economic and trade relations [21]. - **Economic Data**: In March, China's exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year (in US dollars), and imports decreased by 4.3% year - on - year (in US dollars). In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in March was 5.9%, exceeding the average level of the demand side [21]. 5. Index and Option Performance - **Index Performance**: CSI 1000 fell 4.15% monthly, CSI 500 rose 3.94% monthly, SSE 300 fell 2.58% monthly, and SSE 50 fell 0.63% monthly, with the basis discount annualization showing a widening divergence for all [29][33][36][38]. - **Option Indicators**: Charts of historical volatility, volatility cones,持仓PCR, and 交易PCR for CSI 1000, SSE 300, and SSE 50 options are provided, but no specific analysis of these indicators is given in the text [42][51][58]. - **Trading Slippage**: Charts of IM long - and short - position trading slippage are provided, but no specific analysis is given [66]. 6. Corporate Profitability - **Low - level Profitability**: The profitability of listed companies remains at a relatively low level. In the third quarter of 2024, the revenue and net profit growth rates of the entire market, excluding the financial sector, showed different degrees of decline [77]. - **Financial Indicators of Indices**: The 2024 semi - annual report shows various financial indicators of different indices, including ROE, operating net profit margin, asset turnover, etc., with differences in growth and profitability among different indices [79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view and recommends cautious long - positions [6][7] 2. Core View - The attitude of US tariff policy is inconsistent, but the sensitivity of the A - share market to tariff policy has weakened. Without a substantial policy shift, it is difficult to have a significant impact on domestic stock indices. The core of market trading focuses more on domestic policy expectations [6] - Positive policy expectations support the index under the guidance of domestic policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of April. If substantial favorable policies are released, the index is expected to rise [6] - Market sentiment is not overly optimistic. The historical quantile of the volume - weighted average basis of stock index futures, except for IH, is below 5%. The trading volume of the two markets has declined again, and market sentiment is cautious. Before the implementation of policy benefits, a cautiously optimistic view is maintained [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance. Except for the Shanghai 50 Index, all other indices closed down. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1206.95 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH rose with reduced volume, while IC and IM fell with reduced volume [4] Important Information - Trump said he might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that China will fight if provoked and is open to talks. The US Treasury Secretary caused fluctuations in the US stock market, mentioning "significant" trade agreement opportunities and also stating that the US has not proposed tariff reduction [5] Strategy Recommendation - Recommend cautious long - positions [7] Futures Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change | Volume | Volume MoM | Open Interest | Open Interest MoM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.07% | 8.3579 | - 0.055 | 246,898 | - 890 | | IH | 0.32% | 4.1283 | 0.0782 | 80,085 | - 610 | | IC | - 0.31% | 7.5303 | - 1.1813 | 203,548 | - 4,910 | | IM | - 0.90% | 20.9041 | - 1.6265 | 316,470 | - 2,832 | [8] Spot Market Observation | Indicator | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.03 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | - 0.58 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.42 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 11,090.19 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 1206.95 | [9]

股指期货午盘收盘 沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约涨0.05%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约涨0.30%，中证500股指期 货（IC）主力合约跌0.32%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约跌0.94%。 ...

沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约跌0.07%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约涨0.25%，中证500股指期 货（IC）主力合约跌0.80%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约跌1.39%。 股指期货早盘收盘 ...

一 、成分股分红进度 截至2025年4月23日： 上证50指数中，有32家公司处于预案阶段，2家公司处于决案阶段，2家公司进入 实施阶段，1家公司已分红，4家公司不分红； 沪深300指数中，有161家公司处于预案阶段，23家公司处于决案阶段，7家公司 进入实施阶段，8家公司已分红，28家公司不分红； 中证500指数中，有188家公司处于预案阶段，46家公司处于决案阶段，2家公司 进入实施阶段，3家公司已分红，90家公司不分红； 中证1000指数中，有378家公司处于预案阶段，87家公司处于决案阶段，14家公 司进入实施阶段，7家公司已分红，217家公司不分红。 二、行业成分股股息率比较 我们对当前已披露分红预案的个股股息率进行了统计，其中，煤炭、银行和钢铁行业的股 息率排名前三。 三、已实现及剩余股息率 截至2025年4月16日： 上证50指数已实现股息率为0.06%，剩余股息率2.41%； 沪深300指数已实现股息率为0.11%，剩余股息率2.03%； 中证500指数已实现股息率为0.01%，剩余股息率1.42%； 中证1000指数已实现股息率为0.01%，剩余股息率1.10%。 四、股指期货升贴水情况跟踪 ...

金十期货4月23日讯，沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约跌0.16%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约跌 0.53%，中证500股指期货（IC）主力合约跌0.05%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约涨0.63%。 股指期货午盘收盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view [6] Core View - The current bullish and bearish factors are domestic policy expectations and external tariff disturbances respectively. Positive policy expectations support the index under the guidance of domestic policies. The US tariff negotiations are not optimistic, with some countries taking a tough stance, while Trump shows an intention to ease tariffs on China. With overall positive news, the stock index rose generally today. Under the domestic and foreign loose expectations, the small and medium - cap stock indexes performed better and showed a unilateral upward trend. However, there are still significant external uncertainties, market sentiment is cautious, and the historical percentile of the volume - weighted average basis of stock index futures, except for IH, is at a low level below 5% [6] Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index which closed slightly lower, the rest of the stock indexes closed higher. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 12.6749 billion yuan. In the futures index, IH declined with increasing volume, while the other varieties rose with increasing volume [4] Important Information - The LPR quotation in April remained stable: the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.10%, the same as last time; the over - 5 - year variety was reported at 3.60%, also the same as last time. - Ishiba Shigeru stated that Japan is not ready to make major concessions to the US and is not in a hurry to reach an agreement with the US [5] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change | 0.66% | - 0.08% | 1.85% | 2.27% | | Volume | 7.751 | 4.2261 | 8.7317 | 22.2169 | | Volume change compared to previous period | - 1.855 | - 0.712 | - 1.0559 | - 2.5927 | | Open interest | 247448 | 81204 | 204265 | 317103 | | Open interest change compared to previous period | 532 | 1637 | 1584 | 819 | [7] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.45 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.27 | | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 4.99 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 104.1405 | | | Trading volume change compared to previous period (billion yuan) | 12.6749 | [8]