1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices fluctuated at high levels. Gold and silver prices reached new highs during the week. After CME changed the margin of precious metal futures contracts from fixed to proportion - floating on the 14th, COMEX silver prices continued to rise strongly, hitting a record high of $93.7 per ounce. Gold and platinum prices fluctuated, and palladium prices declined slightly due to the temporary elimination of tariff risks [2][5]. - On January 15, the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals including silver and platinum for the time being. Trump's criminal investigation against Fed Chairman Powell led to political backlash, and Kevin Warsh became the top candidate for the next Fed Chairman. Geopolitical tensions persisted, such as the US threatening to impose tariffs to seize Greenland and the tense situation in Iran [2][6]. - Recent US employment and inflation data were better than expected, pushing the US dollar index to rebound. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the January 27 - 28 meeting and cut rates at least twice by 25 basis points this year. With the tariff policy becoming clearer, metals not subject to high - tariff may flow out of the US market, but the market still anticipates long - term supply shortages, geopolitical instability, and strategic hoarding, so the popularity of precious metals is expected to remain high, with high price volatility risks [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1032.32 | 25.84 | 2.57 | 87298 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 1031.09 | 28.17 | 2.81 | 40854 | 188966 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4601.10 | 82.70 | 1.83 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 22483 | 3193 | 16.55 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 22641 | 3882 | 20.69 | 538580 | 3156550 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 89.95 | 10.16 | 12.73 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 610.05 | 10.25 | 1.71 | 24678 | 12562 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 602.46 | 9.64 | 1.63 | | | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2342.90 | 9.64 | 2.86 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 469.35 | 9.64 | - 5.95 | 12825 | 12562 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1846.50 | 9.64 | - 1.47 | | | US dollars/ounce | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Price trends: Precious metal prices fluctuated at high levels last week. Gold and silver hit new highs, while palladium declined slightly due to tariff risk elimination [2][5]. - Policy: The Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals including silver and platinum after a national security review, and will seek bilateral negotiations and consider setting a price floor [5]. - Political situation: Trump's criminal investigation against Powell led to criticism from former US economic and financial officials. Kevin Warsh became the most likely candidate for the next Fed Chairman. Geopolitical tensions included the US threatening to impose tariffs on 8 European countries for Greenland and the tense situation in Iran [2][6]. - Economic data: US employment and inflation data were better than expected, pushing the US dollar index to rebound. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January and cut rates at least twice this year [2][6][8]. - Future outlook: With the tariff policy becoming clearer, metals not subject to high - tariff may flow out of the US market, but the market still anticipates long - term supply shortages, geopolitical instability, and strategic hoarding. The popularity of precious metals is expected to remain high, but high price volatility risks need to be noted. This week, attention should be paid to the initial value of the US Q4 GDP and the November PCE data [2][8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - US core inflation slowed down. In December, the core CPI growth rate was lower than expected, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, the same as the lowest level in the past five years, and the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations [8]. - In November last year, the US PPI and core PPI both increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. Rising energy costs were the main driver of PPI growth [8]. - In November last year, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the fastest growth rate since July last year. Core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, better than the market expectation of 0.4%, significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption [8]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, the lowest level since November last year. The four - week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two - year low [9]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that in 8 of the 12 Fed districts, overall economic activity increased slightly to moderately, 3 reported no change, and 1 reported a slight decline. Compared with the previous three reporting cycles, the situation improved. Most banks reported a slight to moderate increase in consumer spending during this period, mainly due to the holiday shopping season [9]. - On January 12, CME announced that it would change the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures from a fixed - dollar amount to a certain percentage of the contract's nominal value. Under the new framework, the gold margin will be set at 5%, and the silver margin will rise to 9%. Platinum and palladium will also use a similar percentage calculation. The adjustment took effect after the close on January 13 [9]. - The governor of the Polish central bank said that the bank plans to increase its gold reserves to 700 tons by the end of the year [9]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - Precious metal ETF holdings: The total gold ETF holdings on January 16, 2026, were 1085.67 tons, an increase of 21.11 tons compared with the previous week, 33.13 tons compared with the previous month, and 206.55 tons compared with the previous year. The iShare silver holdings on January 16, 2026, were 16073.06 tons, a decrease of 235.42 tons compared with the previous week, an increase of 54.77 tons compared with the previous month, and an increase of 1662.34 tons compared with the previous year [12]. - Multiple charts show the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, and other data of precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, as well as their relationships with the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and other factors [13][20][34].

| > | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月16日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数录得19.8万人低于预期为12月以来新低，美国经济保持韧性，美联储多位 官员讲话对短期内降息持否定态度。美媒称特朗普哲缓决定是否对伊朗发动军事打击,短期避险情绪有所降 温,黄金表现抗跌,美国对于全球秩序的挑战令贵金属中期维持强势,多头思路不变。 ★南美局势 --- 19知情人士称，美军已扣押第六艘与委内瑞拉有关的油轮。②美国正向墨西哥施压,要求允 许美军跨境打击贩毒。③特朗普称会前往委内瑞 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core View - The US economy remains resilient with the weekly initial jobless claims at a new low since December, and multiple Fed officials oppose short - term interest rate cuts. Short - term risk - aversion sentiment has cooled due to Trump's delay in deciding on a military strike against Iran. However, gold shows resistance to decline. Given the US challenges to the global order, precious metals are expected to stay strong in the medium term, and a long - position strategy remains unchanged [1] Summary by Related Topics South American Situation - The US military has seized the sixth oil tanker related to Venezuela. The US is pressuring Mexico to allow cross - border anti - drug operations. Trump plans to visit Venezuela, and the Venezuelan opposition leader met with Trump, who refused to back his bid for power [2] Federal Reserve - Goolsbee believes the central bank should focus on reducing inflation due to a stable job market. Bostic thinks inflation is too high and tight policies are needed. Paulson supports keeping interest rates unchanged at the next meeting. Schmid sees little reason for a rate cut as monetary policy is not very tight. Daly thinks the policy is in a "good position" and adjustments should be cautious [2] International Monetary Fund (IMF) - IMF President Kristalina Georgieva emphasized the importance of central bank independence and supported Fed Chairman Powell, who is under investigation by the Trump administration [2]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have experienced significant volatility, with a recent surge of 15% despite a pullback from record highs, driven by increased demand for precious metals and the absence of U.S. import tariffs on key minerals [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 16, silver prices rose by 15% during the week, with a peak increase of over 20% in the first four trading days [1][6]. - The absence of U.S. tariffs on key minerals, including silver and platinum, has contributed to the rise in gold prices [1][6]. - President Trump announced plans for bilateral negotiations to ensure adequate supply of key minerals, alleviating market concerns over potential tariffs on silver, platinum, and palladium [4][9]. Group 2: Price Trends and Historical Context - Spot silver prices reached a historical high of over $93 per ounce, more than doubling compared to the same period last year, and are on track for a ninth consecutive month of increases, marking the longest streak since records began in 1950 [4][9]. - The solar industry accounted for approximately 17% of total silver demand last year, more than double the demand from a decade ago, indicating a shift in consumption patterns [4][9]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite strong U.S. data boosting the dollar and pressuring gold prices, expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve may increase the demand for precious metals as a hedge [5][10]. - The recent surge in precious metals prices has been partly speculative, with signs of weakening fund inflows raising concerns about sustainability [5][11]. - The market is expected to shift from being driven by sentiment and capital flows to requiring ongoing validation from fundamental data, necessitating close attention to support levels during pullbacks and the health of speculative positions [5][11].

Group 1 - The latest Shanghai gold futures closing price is 1032.32 CNY per gram, with a daily decline of 0.31% and a trading volume of 123,247 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai on January 16 is quoted at 1029.60 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 2.72 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. State Department has issued a warning for American citizens to leave Iran, marking the third alert in five days, amidst rising tensions and military readiness from Iran [1] Group 2 - Jinrui Futures suggests that gold and silver are experiencing increased short-term volatility, while the long-term bull market may present an entry opportunity [2] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.33% to 4620.50 USD per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 0.90% to 92.21 USD per ounce, reflecting market uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions and upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve leadership announcements [2] - The long-term core drivers for precious metal prices remain stable, influenced by factors such as sovereign debt issues, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases driven by de-dollarization [2]

Group 1 - The total number of ETF shares increased by 3.73 billion, reaching 33,579.30 billion shares, with a total scale increase of 38.307 billion, amounting to 61,664.52 billion [1] - On January 14 and 15, ETF trading volumes hit record highs of 715.535 billion and 749.244 billion respectively [1] - The Huaan Gold ETF surpassed 100 billion in scale on January 14, becoming the first gold ETF in China to reach this milestone [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have been rising steadily, attracting significant market attention [2] - On January 14, the spot price of gold in London reached a historical high of 4,643 USD per ounce [3] - The AU9999 gold spot trading price set a new record on January 15 [4] - The resource market is expected to show significant structural trends by 2025, with precious metals and industrial metals like copper leading the way [4] - Gold is highlighted as a core asset for risk diversification and inflation hedging, while silver is noted for its dual financial and industrial attributes [4]

| 铂金在内的关键矿产征收全面关税，推动白银价格在周四一度较大幅度回撤。1 | 月 | 15 | 日美元指数最终收涨 | 0.28%，报 | 99.35。1 | 月 | 15 | 日全天 | COMEX | 黄金探底回升，COMEX | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 白银大幅回撤后、收复多数失地。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 【交易策略】 | | | | | | | | | | | | 贵金属短线波动加剧，多头继续持仓，注意控制风险。 | | | | | | | | | | | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报 ...

| 国投期货 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月15日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布11月PPI录得3%为7月以来新高，零售销售月率录得0.6%略高于预期，美联储多位官员讲话对短 期内降息持否定态度。伊朗局势处于高度紧张状态,尽管释放一定暂缓行动信号,但不确定性依然很强,消 息称联合国安理会将于15日应美国要求举行伊朗局势紧急会议。责金属整体维持多头思路，白银连续拉涨后 波动加剧。今日关注美国1月SPGI制造业PMI初值和周度初请失业金人数。 ★美联储——①卡什卡利：特朗普的威胁 ...

山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月15日16时39分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.02%，沪银主力收涨1.68%，铂金主力收跌4.11%，钯金主力收涨涨0.15%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，伊朗警告若 特朗普发动袭击将进行报复，美国从中东基地撤离人员，美联储主席鲍威尔因总部翻修案深陷刑事调查，特朗普政府正在讨论获取 格陵兰岛的方案，美国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭食品与房 租支出增加。美国12月就业增长几乎停滞，失业率下降缓解劳动力市场恶化担忧。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂 停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1 月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。 铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震 ...

Core Insights - The global financial market is experiencing a surge in precious metals, with gold reaching a historic high of $4642.77 per ounce and silver climbing to $93.48, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions, economic data fluctuations, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and political strife in the U.S. [1][5] Market Dynamics - Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is at its peak, reflecting a collective action by investors seeking refuge from uncertainties [1][5] - The recent price surge is not just a numerical increase but indicates underlying market dynamics influenced by various external factors [1][5] Technical Analysis - After three days of price increases, gold is facing upward pressure from trend lines, suggesting a potential wedge formation that may limit further upward movement [3][7] - Key support levels to watch are $4570 and $4520, indicating a possible need for a price adjustment despite the prevailing bullish trend [3][7] - Recent technical indicators show a shift, with the Wednesday candlestick closing below the Bollinger upper band, suggesting a less aggressive market performance [3][7]