【黄金期货行情表现】 在高利率环境和全球化重构的大背景下，黄金的定价机制正在由传统的以实际利率为核心向以央行购金 为核心，央行购金的行为是关键，背后是"去中心化"、避险需求的集中体现。货币属性方面，特朗普的 大而美法案顺利通过，美国债务问题有望加重，导致美元的货币信用出现裂痕，在去美元化进程中黄金 的去法币化属性凸显。金融属性方面，在全球高利率环境下，黄金作为零息债对债券的替代效应减弱， 对美债实际利率的敏感度下降。避险属性方面，地缘政治风险边际减弱，特朗普的关税政策加剧全球贸 易紧张，市场避险需求仍在，成为阶段性推升黄金价格的重要因素。商品属性方面，中国实物金需求明 显上升，央行从去年11月重启增持黄金，已连续增持八个月。目前来看，推升本轮金价上涨的逻辑没有 完全逆转，美联储的利率政策和关税政策可能是短期扰动因素，预计今年的利率政策会更加谨慎，关税 政策和地缘政治冲突的演变主导着市场避险情绪变化。根据美国最新数据，非农数据显示劳动力市场韧 性较强，非农就业人口超过市场预期，失业率下降至4.1%。6月PCE数据显示通胀数据放缓，核心PCE 同比上涨2.8%，超过市场预期，PCE同比上涨2.6%，超过市场预期， ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE levels increase volatility, and in Q3, the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing should be noted. [5] - It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions. For those with a short - term view, they can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity after the silver's upward momentum fades. [4][5] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The potential harm of the US - EU trade agreement to the European economy led to a more than 1% drop in the euro against the US dollar, pushing the US dollar index to around 99. The easing of international trade and the cease - fire on the Thai - Cambodian border reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold fell to around $3300 per ounce, while silver with strong industrial attributes was strong due to Sino - US trade negotiation expectations. [4] - Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold is expected to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise. [4] - This week, attention should be paid to Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade talks, central bank meetings, and important economic data. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill reduced the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but Trump's policies and geopolitical risks supported the price. [5] - In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. [5] - It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, waiting for the next upward breakthrough. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7][9][11] 3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Sino - US senior economic officials held over five - hour talks in Stockholm to extend the trade truce by three months. [17] - A cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia took effect at midnight on Monday, ending a deadly conflict. [17] - Trump set a new deadline for Russia to make progress in ending the Ukraine war. [17] - Trump expects to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements with the US and will send notice letters to about 200 countries. The US is considering changing its Myanmar policy regarding rare - earth resources. The EU and the US will establish a metal alliance as part of the trade agreement. [18]

Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with market focus on whether the policy statement will convey dovish signals [3] - Economic data presents mixed signals: June job openings decreased and hiring numbers fell, indicating a weak labor market, while the July consumer confidence index rose to 97.2, exceeding expectations [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.330%, the lowest since July 3, reflecting market risk aversion and bets on a shift in Federal Reserve policy [4] - Following the U.S.-EU and U.S.-Japan trade agreements, external risks have decreased, potentially creating space for a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a small upward movement after four consecutive days of decline, indicating a potential slowdown in the downtrend [7] - Key resistance levels for gold are at 3335/3336 and 3345, while support levels are at 3302/3301, 3282, and 3275 [7][9] - The four-hour chart suggests that if gold can hold above the 3302/3301 level, it may confirm an upward structure, with targets set at 3354, 3370, and 3386/3387 [9]

基本面： 周二（7月29日）白银上涨力度不足回落，市场短空轻仓布局方案。本周市场将经历国际贸易局势、美联储等央行利率决议、美国PCE等重磅经济数据和地 缘局势的多重重磅风险事件冲击。美联储利率预期：黄金白银价格波动的"风向标"本周，美联储将于7月30日结束为期两天的政策会议，市场普遍预期其将 维持指标利率区间在4.25%-4.50%不变。尽管特朗普多次向美联储主席鲍威尔施压要求大幅降息，但市场对9月降息的预期依然强烈。两年期美债收益率小幅 上升至3.926%，反映了市场对利率预期的微妙调整。黄金作为无息资产，其价格对利率预期极为敏感。如果美联储释放出明确的降息信号，美元可能走 弱，从而为金价提供上行动力。然而，当前市场对美联储维持利率稳定的预期占据主导，叠加美元的强势表现，金价短期内难以摆脱下行压力。投资者还需 密切关注美联储会后声明以及鲍威尔对未来政策的表态，这些都可能成为金价走势的关键转折点。 特朗普近期对俄罗斯设定了10至12天的最后期限，要求其在乌克兰战争中取得进展，否则将面临制裁和关税威胁。这一强硬立场引发了俄罗斯方面的激烈回 应，克里姆林宫盟友警告此举可能导致更大规模的冲突。乌克兰则对特朗普的表态 ...

金瑞期货：短期内贵金属暂缺趋势性行情的驱动 华泰期货：黄金维持偏震荡市场静候议息会议 Kitco Metals：贸易局势进展提振美元打压金价但黄金仍表现出潜在弹性 瑞士宝盛银行：短期金价的盘整仍将延续 【机构观点分析】 华泰期货表示，目前黄金价格仍然维持偏震荡格局，由于此前市场风险情绪有所滋生，致使金银比价出 现回归。本周将会面临美联储议息会议，当下市场对于美联储降息的计价相对有限，因此倘若美联储意 外降息，则对于行情影响或将较大。同时美联储主席鲍威尔与总统特朗普冲突似有加剧之态，若鲍威尔 果真被免职，则避险需求仍将加大，届时将再度利好黄金价格，目前操作上黄金仍然建议以逢低买入套 保为主。 Kitco Metals分析师Gary Wagner在最新点评文章中写道，近期黄金市场波动的主要催化剂来自于贸易领 域。国际贸易谈判的最新进展推动美元走强并削弱对传统避险资产的需求，黄金价格震荡下挫。同时， 美元的强势进一步受到货币政策预期的支撑，因为美联储即将召开的会议显示降息的可能性很小。但要 注意到的是，尽管隔夜美元升值了超1%，但金价仅下跌0.74%左右，整体走势展现出一些潜在的弹性。 这种差异表明，尽管美元走强带 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美元汇率出现自 5 月初以来最大涨幅，有望实现今年的首次月度上涨。与此同时， 美国与欧盟达成的贸易协议再度引发了人们对关税对全球经济增长影响的担忧。周一，彭博美元现货指 数较主要同类指数上涨了 0.8%。尽管与年初相比仍大幅下跌，但7月迄今，该美元指数已上涨了 1.5%。 彭博宏观策略师指出："欧洲央行原本预计贸易摩擦会较为温和，但最终达成的协议却包含了更高的关 税以及更为严重的后果。这一误判如今正对美元造成重大影响。" 此举有助于缓解有关贸易的诸多担忧。美国和中国官员结束了为期两天的首轮会谈，此次会谈旨在将双 方的关税休战协议延长至 8 月中旬之后。 美国与欧盟于周末宣布达成15%税率关税协议，使得美元相对于 G10 组别中的所有货币汇率均有所上 升，其中欧元跌幅最大。因为投资者纷纷将美元视为避险货币，同时也在权衡关税对欧洲及全球经济增 长的影响。 富国银行的策略师Aroop Chatterjee说道："这表明，鉴于这些不对称的'协议'，实际的关税措施将对世 界其他地区的经济增长产生负面影响。" 该协议使得欧盟的出口商品所面临的关税水平远高于欧盟对美国进口商品征收的关税水平。欧盟委员会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry [1] Core Insights - The gold jewelry industry is experiencing a shift towards younger consumers and a trend towards "Guochao" (national trend) aesthetics, with rising demand for traditional craftsmanship and small-weight gold products [4][5] - The price of gold is expected to maintain an upward trend due to geopolitical factors and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with COMEX gold prices stabilizing between $3,300 and $3,500 per ounce [4] - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry in China reached CNY 194.8 billion in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.3% [20] Summary by Sections Section 1: Gold Price Trends - The gold jewelry industry index is experiencing a synchronized rise, driven by increasing gold prices and product upgrades [20] Section 2: Gold Jewelry Industry - The retail sales of gold jewelry are growing faster than the overall retail market, with a notable increase in demand driven by rising gold prices and seasonal consumption peaks [20][21] - The gold jewelry market is projected to reach CNY 5,688 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6% from 2019 to 2024 [26] Section 3: Industry Chain Analysis - The gold jewelry industry value chain includes upstream mining, midstream design and manufacturing, and downstream retail, with a focus on brand value creation [65] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a concentration of market share among leading brands, with the top five companies holding a significant portion of the market [76] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Laopuhuangjin, Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, Chao Hong Ji, and Cai Bai Co., Ltd. [6]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is around $3338.36 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.06% [1] - Last week, international gold prices experienced fluctuations due to a weaker dollar, trade tensions, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, ultimately closing down nearly 0.35% [1] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce announced that the tariff extension will not be prolonged beyond August 1, and President Trump stated that a 15% tariff agreement with the EU has been reached, which is expected to reduce safe-haven demand for gold [1][2] Group 2 - The recent stabilization of the U.S. dollar index has not led to a breakthrough of previous high points, maintaining pressure on gold prices [2] - The market is currently focused on U.S. tariff negotiations, with lower uncertainty compared to April, which has prevented gold prices from breaking upward [2][4] - The U.S. labor market data has shown unexpected improvement, contributing to a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which exert significant downward pressure on gold prices [1][2] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) saw a decline of 0.28% with a trading volume of 2.91 billion yuan [3] - The gold market is expected to remain in a volatile range, with attention on geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policies, and liquidity shocks that could trigger gold price corrections [4] - Long-term investment in gold ETFs is suggested due to their ability to hedge against tail risks and their stable performance across economic cycles [5]

市场将关注7月的JOLTS职位空缺和美国消费者信心指数。交易者将收到ADP就业数据、第二季度美国 初步GDP和待售房屋销售数据。当天还将有加拿大银行、美联储利率决议和日本银行的货币政策决定。 周四将公布7月的最新PCE通胀数据和每周初请失业金数据，周五以7月非农就业数据和ISM制造业PMI 结束本周。未来一周金价将"延续震荡偏弱走势，因市场风险偏好回升"。市场参与者正屏息以待美联储 政策信号，这场货币政策与避险需求的博弈将决定黄金下一步走向。 周一（7月28日）亚市早盘，现货黄金探底回升，盘初一度延续上周五跌势至3320关口附近，因美国和 欧洲达成贸易协议，令黄金避险需求进一步下降，但金价受到逢低买盘支撑，很快收复大部分跌幅，目 前交投于3335美元/盎司附近。因美元走强、美欧贸易协议的乐观情绪的压制，上周五金价收跌近1%， 为连续三个交易日下跌，收报3336.49美元/盎司。 与此同时，全球央行购金的趋势为黄金提供了坚实的底部支撑。许多国家正通过增持黄金来减少对美元 的依赖，这一趋势将在未来持续推动金价上行。中国央行增持黄金的传闻尤其引人关注，尽管具体数据 尚未公开，但市场普遍预期中国等新兴市场国家将继续加 ...

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Safe-Haven Demand Cools, Pressuring Gold and Silver [1] Report Date - July 28, 2025 [2] Report Author - Bai Suna [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With Trump announcing trade agreements with more countries, global trade tensions ease, reducing safe-haven demand and pressuring precious metal prices. Monitor the progress of US-EU negotiations and China-US-Sweden economic and trade talks, and beware of tariff policy fluctuations as the August 1 tariff suspension period ends [5] - The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in July and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, indicating the end of the ECB's easing cycle. The Fed is also likely to keep rates unchanged in July, temporarily suppressing precious metal prices. Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut rates continues, but the dollar credit risk is alleviated, weakening gold's short-term upward drive. However, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is over 60%, providing medium-term support for gold prices. Focus on key US economic data this week [5] - In the first half of the week, the commodity trading limit-up atmosphere boosted Shanghai silver to break through the 9,500 yuan/kg mark. But as gold weakened and commodities tumbled on Friday night, silver prices were dragged down. As the irrational commodity rally subsides, silver's short-term resilience may weaken, and it is expected to return to fundamental logic in the medium term [5] - Strategy: Buy gold on dips; stay on the sidelines for silver [5] - Long-term view: Bullish. With the Fed likely to cut rates in the second half of the year, global geopolitical tensions remaining complex, de-globalization intensifying, and the weakening of the US dollar credit, central banks will continue to be net buyers of gold, providing long-term support for gold prices [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking Gold and Silver Prices and Gold-Silver Ratio - London spot gold was at $3,336.22/oz, down $13.435 (-0.40%) from the previous week; Shanghai gold futures were at 777.32 yuan/g, up 0.3 yuan (0.04%) [4] - London spot silver was at $38.137/oz, down $0.01 (-0.03%) from the previous week; Shanghai silver futures were at 9,392 yuan/kg, up 119 yuan (1.28%) [4] - SHFE gold-silver ratio was 82.76, down 1.03 (-1.23%) from the previous week [4] ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR-ETF holdings were 957.09 tons, up 13.47 tons (1.43%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX gold non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 253,038 contracts, up 39,923 contracts (18.73%) from the previous week [4] - Silver SLV-ETF holdings were 15,230 tons, up 572 tons (3.90%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 60,620 contracts, up 1,172 contracts (1.97%) from the previous week [4] Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory was 30.258 tons, up 1.4 tons (4.85%) from the previous week; COMEX gold inventory was 1,174.54 tons, up 17.74 tons (1.53%) from the previous week [4] - SHFE silver inventory was 1,187 tons, down 23.82 tons (-1.97%) from the previous week; COMEX silver inventory was 15,562 tons, up 95.7 tons (0.62%) from the previous week; SGE silver inventory (lagging one week) was 1,312 tons, down 15.21 tons (-1.15%) from the previous week [4] 2. Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was 97.6701, down 0.7899 (-0.80%) from the previous week; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1681, down 0.0129 (-0.18%) from the previous week [4] - The 2-year US Treasury yield was 3.9275%, up 0.0647 (1.67%) from the previous week; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.3878%, down 0.0217 (-0.49%) from the previous week; the US 10-year real interest rate was 1.96%, down 0.07 (-3.45%) from the previous week [4] Economic Data - The US first-quarter GDP growth rate unexpectedly contracted; the consumer confidence index improved for the first time in half a year [59] - The US manufacturing PMI and service PMI were better than expected; the US retail sales data showed positive trends [60] - The US June non-farm payrolls were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate declined [66] - Inflation in the US rebounded slightly, but inflation expectations cooled [73] - The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded; the eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined [82] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, with 73.9 million ounces at the end of June, a month-on-month increase of 700,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) [91] - Global central banks remained net buyers of gold. In the first quarter of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net-purchased 243.7 tons of gold, a year-on-year decrease of about 21.4%. Despite the decline in the first quarter, the overall performance remained strong, and global central banks were expected to continue net-purchasing gold [91]