2025.10.15 多位与会经济学家认为，就业下行风险正成为美联储内部关注的焦点。机构MacroPolicy Perspectives创 始人朱莉娅·科罗纳多（Julia Coronado）表示："10月降息几乎是板上钉钉。劳动力市场的风险并未缓 解，反而在增加。" 美国咨商会高级经济学家叶莲娜·舒利亚季耶娃（Yelena Shulyatyeva）认为，美联储正从"抗通胀优 先"逐步过渡到"平衡增长与就业"的阶段。"当前风险更多集中在就业端，这将决定短期内的政策方 向。" 本文字数：1970，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间10月14日，在美国政府停摆导致经济数据发布受阻的背景下，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，自9月 决策会议以来，美国经济前景基本保持不变。当前政策取向已进入艰难平衡期：一边是通胀压力尚未完 全缓解，另一边是就业市场持续走弱。尽管鲍威尔未对下一步行动给出明确信号，但市场普遍预期，美 联储将在10月底的会议上再次降息。 "现在没有无风险的路径。"鲍威尔在全美商业经济协会（NABE）年会上说，"如果行动太快，可能会 让抗通胀任务半途而废；但若行动太慢，劳动力市场也可能遭到不必要的损 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is nearing the end of its quantitative tightening efforts, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy to support liquidity in the financial system [1][14] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet liabilities total $6.5 trillion, with $2.4 trillion in Federal Reserve notes, $3.0 trillion in reserves, and approximately $800 billion in the Treasury General Account [4] - The asset side consists mainly of $4.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities and $2.1 trillion in government-backed mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [5] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Powell highlighted signs of tightening liquidity conditions, including a general tightening of repo rates and temporary liquidity pressures on specific dates [1][14] - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with rising risks to employment, suggesting a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points later this month [1][2][18] - Current economic data indicates that while the unemployment rate remains low, job growth has significantly slowed, influenced by reduced immigration and a declining labor force participation rate [18] Asset Purchase and Market Stability - The Fed's asset purchases during the pandemic were aimed at stabilizing the economy and financial markets, with a peak loan amount of slightly over $200 billion in July 2020 [7] - The Fed maintained a significant asset purchase pace until October 2021, with a total increase of $4.6 trillion in securities held [8][9] - The Fed's framework for ample reserves has proven effective in controlling policy rates and promoting financial stability, even as the balance sheet has contracted by $2.2 trillion since June 2022 [13] Future Considerations - The Fed plans to halt balance sheet reduction when reserves are slightly above the deemed adequate level, monitoring various indicators closely [14] - The current balance sheet size is influenced by public demand for liabilities rather than pandemic-related asset purchases, with non-reserve liabilities exceeding pre-pandemic levels by approximately $1.1 trillion [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential for interest rate cuts this month due to a deteriorating labor market, despite the impact of the government shutdown on economic assessments [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Powell's remarks reinforced expectations for further rate cuts, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October according to CME FedWatch [1][7] - Analysts believe Powell's statements have paved the way for the Fed to announce the end of its balance sheet reduction at the upcoming policy meeting [6] - The market is increasingly confident in a rate cut, with some analysts stating that the October cut is almost certain given the ongoing risks in the labor market [6][7] Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Powell noted that the employment and inflation outlook has not changed significantly since the last meeting, but risks to employment have increased [2][3] - He emphasized the slow hiring pace and the likelihood of a further decline in the unemployment rate, with job vacancies decreasing [2] - The government shutdown has led to missing non-farm payroll data, making private sector employment reports the primary source of employment data [2] Group 3: Quantitative Tightening (QT) Status - Powell suggested that the Fed's long-standing plan for balance sheet reduction may be nearing its end, with careful monitoring of liquidity indicators [4][5] - He acknowledged signs of tightening liquidity but assured that the Fed would take cautious measures to avoid a repeat of the 2019 market stress [4][5] - Since mid-2022, the Fed has been reducing liquidity through QT, with the balance sheet currently at $6.6 trillion [4]

Market Overview - The US stock market closed mixed, with major indices reacting to positive quarterly results from large banks, comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and ongoing trade tensions [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 202.88 points (0.44%) to 46,270.46, while the Nasdaq fell by 172.91 points (0.76%) to 22,521.70, and the S&P 500 decreased by 10.41 points (0.16%) to 6,644.31 [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) may soon come to an end, with expectations for a halt in asset balance sheet reduction at the October policy meeting [1][2] - Powell acknowledged the significant downside risks in the labor market, despite inflation appearing to rise slowly [2] Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, 10 out of 11 sectors rose, with consumer staples leading at 1.72% increase, followed by industrials at 1.17% [3] - The global airline ETF rose by 3.17%, regional bank ETF increased by 3.09%, and bank ETF gained 3.02%, while technology sector ETFs saw declines [3] Notable Stock Movements - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Nvidia down 4.4%, Intel down 4.27%, and Tesla down 1.53% [4] - Wells Fargo surged by 7.15%, marking its largest single-day gain since November 2024, while Citigroup's stock rose nearly 4% [5] - JPMorgan raised its full-year net interest income forecast, while Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, yet both saw stock declines of about 2% [6] Emerging Trends - A record proportion of global fund managers believe AI-related stocks are in a bubble, with 54% of respondents in a recent survey stating that tech stock valuations are "too expensive" [2] - Rare earth stocks continued their upward trend, with Critical Metals rising by 28.7% and MP Materials increasing by 3.78% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. economic outlook remains largely unchanged since the September meeting, with a delicate balance between persistent inflation pressures and a weakening labor market. The market widely anticipates another rate cut at the upcoming meeting at the end of October [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Powell emphasized that the U.S. is experiencing a phase of "low hiring, low layoffs," with a decline in job vacancies likely to soon impact the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in a year, and the government shutdown has delayed the release of the September non-farm payroll report, complicating assessments of labor market conditions [2][5]. - Economists are increasingly concerned about the risks to employment, with some suggesting that the Fed is shifting focus from anti-inflation measures to balancing growth and employment [2][6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Despite market expectations for continued easing, Powell reiterated that inflation risks have not been fully resolved, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 2.9% year-over-year, still above the Fed's 2% target. He indicated that the Fed's task remains to bring inflation back to sustainable levels without harming employment [3][4]. - Powell hinted that the process of reducing the Fed's balance sheet may soon come to an end, suggesting a potential slowdown in quantitative tightening to maintain market liquidity [3][5]. Data Availability and Decision-Making Challenges - The government shutdown has interrupted the release of key economic data, creating uncertainty for the Fed's decision-making process. Powell acknowledged that the Fed may not be able to compensate for the lack of data, particularly for October, which could complicate the situation further [5][6]. - The Fed is relying on alternative data sources to fill the gaps left by the absence of official statistics, but Powell stressed that these cannot fully replace government data [4][5]. Market Expectations - Investors generally expect the Fed to maintain a moderate easing stance in the coming months, with projections indicating a cumulative rate cut of about 50 basis points by the end of the year. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note recently fell to 4.03%, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets [5][6].

目前尚不清楚美联储能将资产负债表缩减到何种程度。一些官员认为，金融体系中仍有充足流动性，意味着QT进程仍可继续推进，而不会 对货币市场造成扰乱。 鲍威尔并未说明QT最终的目标规模，但他强调："到目前为止，我们的充足储备金体系在执行货币政策、维护经济和金融稳定方面，已被证 明非常有效。" 当地时间周二，美联储主席鲍威尔表示， 美联储长期推进的资产负债表缩减计划，也就是所谓的量化紧缩(QT)，可能即将接近尾声。 鲍威尔指出，鉴于美联储一直以来的目标是让金融体系保持足够的流动性，以便对短期利率进行有效控制并维持货币市场的正常波动。"我 们可能在未来数月接近这一节点，我们正密切监测一系列指标，以判断这一时刻是否已经到来。" 在费城出举行的美商业经济协会上，鲍威尔提到： "一些迹象显示，流动性状况正逐步趋紧，包括回购利率普遍上升，以及在特定日期出现 更明显但暂时性的市场压力。" 自2022年中期以来，美联储一直通过量化紧缩计划收回流动性，目的是消化疫情期间向市场注入的巨额资金。当时，美联储大规模购买国 债和抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)，以在短期利率接近零时稳定市场并提供刺激。 这一系列资产购买操作使美联储的资产负债表规模 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of a rate cut in October due to the deteriorating labor market, despite the impact of the government shutdown on economic assessments [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Powell's remarks reinforced expectations for further rate cuts, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October according to CME FedWatch [1][7]. - Analysts believe Powell's statements have solidified the market's belief in a rate cut, with some suggesting that the October cut is almost certain due to ongoing labor market risks [6][7]. Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Powell noted that the employment and inflation outlook has not changed significantly since the last meeting, but risks to employment have increased, prompting the September rate cut [2][3]. - He emphasized the slow hiring pace and the potential for further declines in the unemployment rate, with job vacancies decreasing [2][3]. Group 3: Quantitative Tightening (QT) Status - Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve's long-term plan for reducing its balance sheet (QT) may be nearing its end, with careful monitoring of liquidity indicators [4][5]. - The Fed's balance sheet has been reduced to $6.6 trillion since mid-2022, and Powell acknowledged signs of tightening liquidity in the banking system [5][6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, U.S. stock markets showed a rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 0.44% after initially dipping [7]. - Major tech stocks experienced declines, while some banks like Wells Fargo and Citigroup saw significant gains due to better-than-expected earnings [7].

Group 1: Market Performance - US stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up by 0.44%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 0.76% and 0.16% respectively [1] - Notable declines were observed in major tech stocks, including Nvidia down over 4%, Amazon down over 1%, and Tesla down over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping nearly 2%, and significant losses for Alibaba, Baidu, and NIO [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of interest rate cuts due to a weakening labor market, despite ongoing inflation concerns [2][3] - Powell highlighted the risks associated with rapid rate cuts potentially leaving inflation targets unmet, while slower cuts could harm the job market [2] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction may be paused in the coming months, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [2] Group 3: IMF Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, but noted that US tariffs and trade protectionism are dampening growth prospects [4][7] - The IMF predicts US economic growth will slow to 2% this year, with a slight increase to 2.1% next year, while the Eurozone is expected to grow at 1.2% this year [4] - Despite a temporary boost from preemptive purchasing due to tariffs, the overall economic outlook remains bleak, with risks skewed to the downside [7][8]

Market Overview - US President Trump announced the consideration of terminating business relations with China regarding edible oils, leading to a decline in major US stock indices, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing down [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 202.88 points (0.44%) to 46270.46 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 172.91 points (0.76%) to 22521.7 points, and the S&P 500 dropped by 10.41 points (0.16%) to 6644.31 points [1] - In European markets, the DAX30 index fell by 120.72 points (0.50%) to 24254.56 points, while the FTSE 100 index rose by 8.38 points (0.09%) to 9451.25 points [1] Oil Market - Light crude oil futures for November fell by $0.79 to $58.70 per barrel, a decrease of 1.33%, while Brent crude for December dropped by $0.93 to $62.39 per barrel, down 1.47% [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin increased by 0.22% to $113,128.7, and Ethereum rose by 0.8% to $4,117.89 [3] Gold Market - Spot gold reached a historical high of $4,179.83 before closing up 0.78% at $4,143.67. A survey indicated that 43% of investors consider "going long on gold" as the most crowded trade [3] Macro Economic Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated support for further rate cuts due to signs of a cooling labor market, suggesting a potential 25 basis point cut later this month [4] - Powell also mentioned that the Fed may soon end its balance sheet reduction efforts, with liquidity conditions tightening [5] - Fed Governor Bowman expects two more rate cuts by the end of the year, contingent on labor market and economic data [5] - Fed's Collins expressed concerns over a weakening labor market, suggesting that another 25 basis point cut may be appropriate [7] Company News - LVMH reported a 1% year-on-year increase in third-quarter sales, reaching €18.28 billion, driven by improved demand in Asia, particularly outside Japan [8] - The fashion and leather goods segment saw a 2% decline in sales during the third quarter, an improvement from a 9% drop in the previous quarter [8]

美国总统特朗普周二美股尾盘时在社交媒体上发文，称其政府正在考虑"终止与中国有关食用油的商业 往来"。受此消息影响，三大指数跳水，纳指、标普500指数最终收跌。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨202.88点，涨幅为0.44%，报46270.46点；纳指跌172.91点，跌幅为0.76%， 报22521.7点；标普500指数跌10.41点，跌幅为0.16%，报6644.31点。博通(AVGO.US)跌3.5%，英伟达 (NVDA.US)跌4.4%，纳微半导体(NVTS.US)涨26%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.95%，阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)跌超2%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数跌120.72点，跌幅0.50%，报24254.56点；英国富时100指数涨8.38点，涨幅 0.09%，报9451.25点；法国CAC40指数跌14.64点，跌幅0.18%，报7919.62点；欧洲斯托克50指数跌 12.74点，跌幅0.23%，报5555.45点；西班牙IBEX35指数涨45.21点，涨幅0.29%，报15583.51点；意大利 富时MIB指数跌83.59点，跌幅0.20%，报42084.00点。 IMF称央行需对货币宽 ...