Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated and declined. In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was weak due to large inventory pressure and unmet demand expectations. In the second half of the week, the market sentiment slightly recovered, and the price decline was small. As of October 17, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2][4]. - In the future, the steel market may present a pattern of weak supply and demand. Steel prices still face significant upward pressure and may fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated and declined this week. In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was weak because of large inventory pressure and unmet demand expectations, but the raw material side provided some support. In the second half of the week, the market sentiment slightly recovered, and the price decline was small. As of October 17, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2][4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The Chinese government emphasizes counter - cyclical regulation, expanding domestic demand, and improving the industrial ecosystem [6]. - China and the United States will hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [6]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%; imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.5% year - on - year [6]. - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan; M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year; the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [6]. - In September, China's PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month. CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month [7]. - The World Steel Association expects global steel demand in 2025 to be flat compared to 2024, reaching about 1.75 billion tons. The decline in China's steel demand is expected to slow down, and steel demand in developing economies such as India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia will grow strongly. European steel demand will experience a long - awaited recovery [7]. - On October 17, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% new tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks and parts starting from November 1. He also said that a 10% tariff will be imposed on imported passenger cars [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials in the past two weeks was 97,800 tons, lower than last week's 99,900 tons. The overall market trading was weak, terminal purchasing willingness was low, and the spot trading price was getting closer to the low level [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces is still above 2.4 million tons. Steel mills are generally in a state of small profit or loss. It is expected that the supply side will continue to shrink, which is conducive to alleviating the supply - demand contradiction. The steel market may present a pattern of weak supply and demand in the future, and steel prices may fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential [26]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][26].

双焦期货周度报告 2025年10月20日 需求相对坚挺 提涨意愿再起 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周国内炼焦煤、焦炭市场价格呈稳定局面，心 态方面波动较大。周五主流焦企提涨焦炭价格第二轮涨价，幅度 50-55元/吨，预计自10月20日起执行，加之近期铁水产量维持高 位，下游对炼焦煤上涨有一定利好支撑。 基本面分析：炼焦煤整体供应无明显变化，除个别矿点因搬 家倒面、安全检查等原因致产量仍未恢复，其余煤矿基本维持正 常生产节奏。需求方面，近期焦炭供应保持稳定，多数焦企维持 正常生产，厂内库存未现明显累积，整体呈现即产即销态势。近 期钢材价格及成材需求情况震荡偏弱，后续原料端价格是否可以 持续偏强尚需关注宏观及钢厂利润等因素的反馈。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 双焦期货周报 一、本周行情回顾 本周国内炼焦 ...

Group 1: US Market Overview - The US market is experiencing a "data vacuum" period with policy expectations trading, as Powell hinted at a potential halt in balance sheet reduction in the coming months[5] - The VIX index surged significantly, indicating heightened market volatility, while the financial sector was the worst performer due to regional bank failures[11] - Gold prices reached historic highs, breaking the $4200 per ounce mark, driven by multiple factors including interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions[12] Group 2: Global Economic Trends - China's government is enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments and expanding domestic demand to navigate complex external environments, leading to a structural market characterized by risk aversion[5] - Japan's political instability has suppressed interest rate hike expectations, causing significant fluctuations in stock, bond, and currency markets[13] - In Europe, political uncertainties are dampening growth expectations, with the ECB emphasizing its readiness to address potential market turmoil[15] Group 3: Investment Strategies - A multi-asset FOF portfolio is recommended, with allocations of 60% in equities, 30% in fixed income, and 10% in commodities, achieving an annualized return of 28%[37] - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced approach, focusing on US Treasuries for medium to long-term opportunities and allocating a portion to gold due to expected price support from various factors[44] - For stable returns in a volatile market, mixed equity and bond funds are suggested to balance capital appreciation potential[44]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to focus on reform in areas such as building a modern industrial system, a unified national market, and improving social security. There may be further emphasis on green development, and attention is paid to whether a GDP growth target will be set [1]. - The stock index is entering a direction - selection phase. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and external funds may flow in. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter and become more balanced [2][10]. - Precious metals are strengthening due to factors like trade tensions, potential Fed policy changes, and deteriorating US fiscal conditions. However, there may be adjustments after rapid rises [3][19]. - For oils and fats, palm oil exports are growing, providing some price support, but the market may be pressured by macro - disturbances [3][28]. Section Summaries I. General Situation and Outlook - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be released around October 28. The macro - economy shows positive trends in exports, CPI, and PPI. There are weather and climate phenomena such as cold snaps and a possible La Nina event [1]. II. Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: After a high - level shock in September, it's in a direction - selection phase. Domestic and external funds may flow in, and the market style may shift in the fourth quarter [2][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are rising. Factors include trade tensions, Fed policy hints, and US government issues. There are risks of adjustments [3][19]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production and exports are increasing, but the market may be affected by macro - factors [3][28]. III. Daily News - **International News**: Trump is signaling trade relaxation, and the US may face a "tariff refund" situation if it loses a court case [5]. - **Domestic News**: The China Shipowners' Association has deepened cooperation with international shipping institutions [6]. - **Industry News**: India's oil imports from Russia increased in the first half of October [7]. IV. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500, ICE Brent crude, and the US dollar index rose, while the FTSE China A50 futures, London gold, and London silver declined [9]. V. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: Similar to the key variety analysis, it's in a direction - selection phase with potential fund inflows and a possible style shift [2][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The price is supported by a loose monetary policy environment. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the domestic economy has positive and negative factors. The central bank may continue with a loose policy [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The price decline is due to geopolitical stability and reduced demand. OPEC's actions in November are crucial for the price trend [13]. - **Methanol**: The开工 rate of related devices is decreasing, and inventory is rising. The market is volatile [14]. - **Rubber**: Supply may increase, but weather and trade negotiations can affect the price [15]. - **Polyolefins**: The price is affected by crude oil and market sentiment, with a possible slowdown in the decline [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The inventory of glass is increasing, and that of soda ash is slightly decreasing. The market is cautious, and consumption and policies are key factors [17][18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: The same as the key variety analysis, with growth and adjustment risks [3][19]. - **Copper**: The supply of concentrates is tight, and the demand varies by industry. The Indonesia mine accident may support the price [20]. - **Zinc**: The processing fee is rising, and the price may follow copper. The domestic price may be weaker than the international one [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is supported, with limited fluctuations [22]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is strong in the short - term but may face a high - level shock. The steel - making profit and production are key factors [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand is supported by steel production, and the supply has decreased. The price is expected to be strong [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export is mixed. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with a mid - term bullish view [26]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The US soybean crushing data is positive, but the domestic supply is sufficient, putting pressure on the price [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Similar to the key variety analysis, with palm oil exports supporting the price and macro - factors causing pressure [3][28]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and the domestic market is under supply pressure [29]. - **Cotton**: The US market is affected by the government shutdown, and the domestic market has a production increase expectation and weak downstream demand [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a game for the year - end peak season. The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the far - month price is related to the Israel - Palestine negotiation [31].

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson emphasized the need for implementing counter-cyclical adjustments and enhancing domestic demand to stimulate economic growth and market vitality before the third quarter of 2025 [1] Group 1 - The government aims to strengthen the domestic circulation and enhance endogenous growth momentum to promote sustained and healthy economic development [1] - There is a focus on effectively implementing the decisions and deployments of the Central Committee and the State Council [1] - The strategy includes continuous efforts to boost market confidence and development expectations [1]

关注宏观变化 期价震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 钢材周报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 李婷 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于10月20日 至23日在北京召开。10月18日，何立峰与美国财政部长 贝森特、贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话，双方同意尽快 举行新一轮中美经贸磋商。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量201万吨，环比减少2万吨，表需 220万吨，增加74万吨，厂库185万吨，减少8万吨，社 库456万吨，减少11万吨，总库存641万吨，减少19万吨。 热卷产量322万吨，减少1万吨，厂库78万吨，减少6万 吨，社库341万吨，增 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates a 2.22% decline in the CSI 300 index this week, with the recommended asset allocation order being equities > commodities > bonds > cash [1][2][4]. Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 index fell by 2.22%, while the CSI 300 stock index futures dropped by 2.36%. In contrast, coking coal futures increased by 1.67%, and iron ore futures decreased by 3.02%. The annualized yield of Yu'ebao rose by 1 basis point to 1.06%, and the yield on ten-year government bonds remained stable at 1.82% [2][13][40]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - In September, China's imports saw a significant month-on-month increase of 8.5%. High-tech product imports remained active, with semiconductor devices, integrated circuits, and automatic data processing equipment showing year-on-year growth rates of 3.0%, 8.8%, and 27.2%, respectively. The import of copper ore and copper products also maintained positive year-on-year growth, indicating a potential recovery in domestic manufacturing and infrastructure investment [3][21]. Economic Data Insights - In September, China's CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month but fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while PPI remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year. The fiscal revenue for the first three quarters reached 16.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with a notable growth of 2.5% in the third quarter [6][24][21]. Market Trends - The A-share market showed weakness this week, with only the Shanghai Dividend Index rising by 2.96%. The leading sectors included banking (4.99%), coal (4.27%), and food and beverage (0.85%), while the electronics components sector led the declines with a drop of 7.10% [40][41]. Bond Market Analysis - The yield on ten-year government bonds closed at 1.82%, down 1 basis point, while the yield on ten-year policy bank bonds fell by 3 basis points to 1.99%. The credit spread decreased by 4 basis points to 0.36% [45][46]. Commodity Market Insights - The report highlights fluctuations in commodity prices, with NYMEX crude oil futures down by 2.80% to $57.25 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 6.69% to $4,267.90 per ounce [18][19]. Real Estate Market Overview - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities showed a slight rebound, with a weekly transaction area of 1.2797 million square meters. The report anticipates that the "stabilizing real estate" policy will continue to have a positive effect in the fourth quarter [36][39]. Automotive Industry Trends - In the automotive sector, the wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles showed a year-on-year growth of -1% and 7%, respectively, indicating a focus on consumption as a key driver for expanding domestic demand [36][42]. High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report notes an increase in the operating rates of major steel mills, with rebar and wire rod operating rates rising by 1.35 and 1.78 percentage points, respectively. However, the operating rates of petroleum asphalt facilities in various regions showed a decline [26][27].

Core Insights - The introduction of two monetary policy tools by the People's Bank of China has significantly enhanced the stability of the capital market over the past year, injecting thousands of billions into the market and boosting investor confidence [1][2][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The two monetary policy tools, namely stock repurchase and increase loan and swap convenience, were established with a total initial quota of 800 billion yuan, which has been effectively utilized to stabilize the market [1][4]. - The swap convenience has provided liquidity support to financial institutions without expanding the base currency supply, with a total of 1,050 billion yuan injected through two operations [3][5]. - The stock repurchase and increase loan has seen nearly 700 listed companies disclosing plans to use loans, with a total loan cap exceeding 3,300 billion yuan [1][4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The implementation of these tools has led to a reduction in A-share volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 17.73% over the past year and its annualized volatility decreasing by 4.62 percentage points [6][5]. - The tools have played a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations and preventing excessive fluctuations, particularly during periods of external shocks [5][6]. - The measures have also facilitated a shift in market sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook, encouraging companies to repurchase shares and institutions to increase equity allocations [6][7]. Group 3: Future Directions - There is a push for the normalization of these monetary policy tools to establish a stable balance mechanism in the capital market, which would provide ongoing support and enhance investor confidence [7][8]. - Recommendations include expanding the coverage of the tools to include more financial institutions and optimizing policy designs to improve flexibility and responsiveness [8]. - Strengthening regulatory oversight on the use of these tools is essential to protect the interests of small investors and maintain market integrity [8].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China and other departments established two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, injecting a total of 800 billion yuan in the first phase [1][3] - These tools have effectively boosted investor confidence, reduced A-share volatility, and enhanced the inherent stability of the capital market over the past year [1][5] Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The two monetary tools include stock repurchase and increase re-loans and swap facilities, which have injected thousands of billions into the market [1][4] - The swap facility has conducted two operations, totaling 105 billion yuan, expanding the number of participating institutions from 20 to 40 [1][2] - Nearly 700 listed companies have disclosed the use of repurchase loans, with a total loan ceiling exceeding 330 billion yuan [1][3] Group 2: Market Impact - The tools have provided low-cost, medium-to-long-term funding support to companies, alleviating financial pressure and expanding market liquidity [3][4] - The A-share market has shown signs of stabilization, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 17.73% over the past year and its annualized volatility decreasing by 4.62 percentage points [5][6] - The tools have played a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations and preventing excessive volatility during periods of external shocks [5][6] Group 3: Future Directions - There is a push for the normalization of these monetary tools to establish a stable balance mechanism in the capital market, enhancing investor confidence and supporting long-term healthy development [7][8] - Recommendations include expanding the coverage of the tools, optimizing policy design, and strengthening collaborative mechanisms to address long-term challenges [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the US federal government shutdown for over two weeks and delayed release of key economic data, the US dollar index has not significantly declined recently. This is driven by data vacuum, the "comparative disadvantage logic" of major non - US currencies, and geopolitical risks pushing up market risk - aversion. The asset reallocation from non - US currencies to commodities also indirectly supports the US dollar. However, the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range under the "stability - first" policy of the Chinese central bank, especially before the important meeting at the end of October [1][17][19]. Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Weekly Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - Last week's foreign exchange market was dominated by policy variables (new trade war risks and Fed's monetary policy signals) and the impact of the US government shutdown. The market was immune to the new trade war risks, and the Fed Chair Powell's dovish signal boosted market liquidity expectations. The euro was positively affected by the Fed's signal and short - term political stability in Europe; the yen was affected by Japan's political uncertainty; the US dollar index depreciated, and the offshore RMB, yen, euro, and pound appreciated against the US dollar, while the on - shore RMB slightly depreciated [2][4][5]. 1.2 Weekly Review of USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate showed a "rising first then falling" volatile trend last week. Key events included Fed Chair Powell's dovish signal on the balance - sheet reduction process, which was due to short - term liquidity tightness in the US money market. China released September CPI and PPI data, with CPI showing signs of improvement and PPI expected to continue improving but unlikely to turn positive this year [11][12][14]. 1.3 Market Outlook - The US dollar index's short - term strength is supported by multiple factors. However, under the Chinese central bank's policy of maintaining RMB exchange rate stability, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range before the end of October [17][19]. 1.4 Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [20]. 2. RMB Market Observation 2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the USD/CNY exchange rate depreciated by 99 basis points. The counter - cyclical factor indicates that the central bank's attitude towards the exchange rate has shifted from neutral to stabilizing the exchange rate (in the direction of RMB depreciation expectations) [22]. 2.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In August, China's foreign exchange market was stable, with active trading and balanced supply and demand. Cross - border funds had a net inflow, and bank settlement and sales had a surplus [26]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the spread between offshore and on - shore RMB showed that overseas investors' depreciation sentiment towards the RMB had declined [30]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the 1 - year NDF closing price of the USD/CNH slightly declined, and the sentiment in the market changed little, with only a slight increase in short - term depreciation sentiment towards the RMB [32]. 2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Relevant charts show the price trends and basis differences of the Hong Kong Exchange's USD/CNH futures contracts [37][38]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Relevant charts show the price trends and basis differences of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNH futures contracts [40][41]. 3. Key Data and Events to Watch 3.1 Weekly Global Key Events Review - **China**: In September, China's foreign trade increased year - on - year; economic policies were continuously promoted, including central bank operations, data releases of M1, M2, CPI, and PPI, and statements on maintaining RMB exchange rate stability [46][47]. - **US**: Economists raised the US economic growth forecast, but employment growth was expected to be weak. There were trade frictions, government shutdown issues, and differences in Fed members' views on interest rate cuts [49][51][56]. - **UK**: The unemployment rate rose, and the private - sector wage growth slowed, triggering an upgrade in interest - rate cut expectations [53]. - **Eurozone**: Germany's economy was unlikely to recover in the third quarter [54]. - **Japan**: No significant events were reported [54]. - **Others**: The IMF raised the world economic growth forecast for 2025 and warned about the global public debt issue [54][55]. 3.2 Weekly Global Central Bank Key Statements Summary - Different central banks, including the Chinese central bank, the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, had various statements on monetary policies, interest rate cuts, and exchange rate stability [55][56][59]. 3.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events to Watch - A series of important economic data from China, the US, Canada, Japan, and the UK, as well as central bank speeches, are to be released this week [63]. 4. International Related Market Conditions 4.1 Exchange Rates of Major Countries - Charts show the trends of exchange rates between the US dollar and major currencies such as the euro, yen, pound, etc. [64][66][70]. 4.2 Linkage of Major Asset Classes - Charts show the trends of major assets including gold, crude oil, stock indices, etc., and their relationships [84][85][86]. 4.3 Capital Situation - Charts show central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes [94][96]. 4.4 Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - Charts show the trends of Sino - US interest rate spreads and the yields of 10 - year US and Chinese treasury bonds [98][99]. 4.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - Charts show the trends of three major RMB exchange rate indices [102]. 4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - Charts show the monthly values of the global economic and trade friction index and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes in the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures [104][106].