开源证券表示，中国消费板块的投资价值在当前市场环境下展现出结构性的吸引力。传统消费升级仍在 持续推进，例如家电产品的智能化反映了消费者对高品质生活的追求，而新消费赛道如健康零食、智能 家居等则依托技术创新和对新兴需求的深入洞察，不断开辟增量市场。与此同时，消费者情绪化特征愈 加明显，倾向于通过消费实现心理补偿与情绪释放，并更加重视本土文化的认同感与价值共鸣。这种趋 势与日本自2005年起进入的"第四消费时代"高度相似，表明中国消费市场正在经历从"占有型"向"共享 型""体验型"的系统性转变。 相关产品：港股消费ETF（159735） 消息面上，商务部发布数据显示，线上消费稳步增长，实体零售持续回升向好。1至5月，网上零售额同 比增长8.5%，其中实物商品网上零售额增长6.3%，占社零总额比重为24.5%。实体零售企业不断创新多 元化消费场景、提升居民消费体验，销售保持平稳增长态势。1至5月，限额以上零售业实体店铺零售额 同比增长4.5%，增速较1至4月加快0.1个百分点。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪港股消费指数，是"更新的消费"，相较A股消费以白酒高端消费为主，港 股消费板块中电商、消费电子、新能源车 ...

三大未来主力消费群体构建消费需求图谱 1)Z世代：通常指出生于1995年至2009年的一代人，人口数量约2.33亿人，占比约16.5%。Z世代注重个 性表达与悦己体验，情绪价值消费、悦己体验消费、时间效率消费等逐步成为核心需求，86.6%Z世代 使用信贷产品亦凸显其较强的消费意愿。2)银发族：通常指60岁及以上的老年群体，2024年我国银发族 人口数量为3.1亿，占比22%。银发族"有钱有闲"特征显著，健康意识不断强化，追求精神满足与自我实 现，健康管理、生活改善、社交、娱乐等消费需求旺盛。3)中产阶级：中国社会科学院GSS调查显示我 国中产阶级人口占比约36%。中产阶级面临职业发展、育儿养老等多重现实压力，普遍忙于工作，近年 来财富增长速度放缓使得他们的支出趋于谨慎，催生了"花钱买时间"偏好及理性平替消费需求。 生活方式重构与价值维度升级共同刻画新消费主线 国信证券发布研报称，建议沿数字经济、悦己消费、情绪价值消费、大健康经济、便利经济、平替经 济、价值观消费七大主线挖掘新消费机会。中国消费品企业已具备成为国际品牌的基础，看好中国消费 品牌出海。当前数字化、个性化、效率化生活方式推动消费呈现"产品场景化"和 ...

1） 港股消费：港股消费ETF（513230），打包电商+新消费，覆盖相对A股更为稀缺的新消费赛道。 2） 港股科技：恒生科技指数ETF（513180），中国核心AI资产，囊括相对A股更为稀缺的科技龙头。 6月20日早盘，港股三大指数集体高开，恒生指数涨0.23%，报23291.40点，恒生科指涨0.3%，国企指数 涨0.22%。盘面上，科网股涨跌不一，稳定币概念多股上涨，内房股活跃。热门ETF方面，港股通汽车 ETF（159323）、港股消费ETF（513230）、恒生科技指数ETF（513180）等开盘后小幅上涨。恒生科 技成分股中，华虹、舜宇光学科技、中芯国际、比亚迪电子、哔哩哔哩等涨幅居前。 截至6月19日，今年内南向资金累计净买入港股金额高达6960.41亿港元，相当于2024年全年净买入 8078.69亿港元的86%。中金测算，年内相对确定的南向增量资金为2000-3000亿港元，全年累计流入可 能超万亿港元。该机构认为，当前中国整体仍需修复但有结构亮点的宏观与市场环境，都更有利于港 股，这是因为不论是提供稳定回报的分红、还是作为结构性机会主线的新消费、AI科技、甚至创新 药，港股都更有优势，这也 ...

2025.06. 20 关于下半年的配置方向，新消费、科技仍被看好。风格上，有分析认为，市场将从中小票题材轮动， 转向核心资产的趋势性行情。还有券商提示称，下半年市场的不确定性将主要来自外部挑战，仍需注 重宏观政策应对。 机构预判A股下半年前稳后升 进入6月中下旬，A股2025年"上半场"收官在即。 回顾市场在年内至今的表现：年初，A股波动放大，沪指一度失守3200点，市场交易情绪有所回 落。据东方财富数据，年初至春节假期前（1月2日至1月27日），三大指数区间跌幅均超2%。 进入2月份，受DeepSeek带动，相关概念板块有所表现，大盘逐渐企稳，沪指在2月上旬站稳3300 点，市场对"春季躁动"行情有所期待；3月之后，又有多重利好因素点燃市场热情，包括两会推出各 项利好政策，央行释放"择机降准降息"信号等，沪指在当月中旬站上3400点。 二季度以来，4月初，全球资本市场受"关税风暴"冲击，A股市场在"国家队"出手增持稳市之后，迅速 止跌。5月至今，市场呈现震荡分化格局。 本文字数：2301，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周楠 本月以来，券商陆续召开中期策略会，年中展望观点相继出炉，机构如何研判20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The debut of Haitian Flavor Industry on the Hong Kong stock market was met with mixed reactions, as the stock price initially rose but ultimately closed with a slight gain of 0.55%, indicating a potential lack of investor confidence in traditional consumer stocks in the current market environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Haitian Flavor Industry's stock price rose nearly 5% at the opening but later fell below the issue price, highlighting volatility in investor sentiment [1]. - The stock's performance contrasts with the high subscription amount of HKD 400 billion during the IPO phase, which surpassed the enthusiasm seen for CATL's listing earlier this year [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The current Hong Kong market favors new consumption sectors and high-tech companies, which are more likely to receive premium valuations compared to traditional consumer goods firms like Haitian Flavor Industry [3][4]. - The disparity in market evaluation between A-shares and H-shares suggests that strong companies in the A-share market may not achieve similar success in Hong Kong [4]. Group 3: Implications for Future Listings - The underperformance of Haitian Flavor Industry serves as a warning for Chinese companies considering listings in Hong Kong, emphasizing the need for alignment with market trends and investor expectations [3][4]. - The influx of A-share companies into the Hong Kong market may dilute the market's resource attributes, leading to a more challenging environment for new listings [4][5].

Market Overview - The market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to concerns over escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, leading to fluctuations in various asset classes [3][9]. - The U.S. dollar index reached a peak of 99 before closing down 0.04% at 98.86, while U.S. Treasury yields showed volatility, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.3960% [3]. - Gold prices remained stable, closing up 0.03% at $3370.31 per ounce, while silver fell by 0.91% to $36.37 per ounce [6]. Stock Market Performance - European stock indices closed lower, with the German DAX30 down 1.12% and the French CAC40 down 1.34% [4]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.99% to 23237.74 points, with significant declines in new consumption and innovative drug sectors [4]. - A-shares also saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79% and the Shenzhen Component down 1.21% [5]. Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.28% to $73.81 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 3.5% to $78.69 per barrel, reflecting market volatility amid geopolitical tensions [6]. Economic Indicators - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4.25%, indicating internal divisions among policymakers regarding future rate changes [12]. - The U.S. is expected to release key economic indicators, including the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, which could impact market sentiment [13].

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Longjie has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with a recent increase of over 139.1% since April 9, reaching a peak of 21.54 yuan per share, before facing a reduction in price due to market trends and insider selling plans [3][6][11] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock opened with a rise of over 8% but later turned negative, ultimately closing up 1.69% at 18.65 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 4.035 billion yuan [1] - Since April 9, the stock price has increased by over 139.1%, with a low of 7.15 yuan and a high of 21.54 yuan, effectively tripling in value [3] Group 2: Insider Selling - Four executives plan to reduce their holdings due to personal financial needs, with a total of up to 932,100 shares to be sold, representing 0.4308% of the total share capital [5][6] - Specific planned reductions include: - He Xiaolin: up to 720,000 shares (1.3325% of total shares) - Guan Le: up to 68,000 shares (0.1262% of total shares) - Wang Jianxin: up to 141,000 shares (0.2611% of total shares) - Ma Dongxian: up to 3,100 shares (0.0059% of total shares) [7] Group 3: Business Overview - Suzhou Longjie specializes in differentiated polyester filament and PTT fibers, with applications primarily in the civilian textile sector and some in industrial fields [9] - The company is one of the few in China that has mastered the production technology for high/super realistic animal fur polyester fibers, holding a leading market share in specific segments [9] - The recent popularity of Bubble Mart's Labubu has positively impacted related industry companies, including Suzhou Longjie, although the company does not directly supply Bubble Mart [9][11] - Last year, the company reported a net profit of 57.76 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 301.73%, while the first quarter of this year saw revenues of 310 million yuan, up 2.59%, and a net profit of 13.12 million yuan, up 2.21% [9]

Labubu价格崩了。 19日，一则关于"Labubu价格崩盘"的话题冲上微博热搜榜第一，引发关注与热议。据潮玩二手交易软件"千 岛"的数据，Labubu3.0整盒成交价格暴跌45%，隐藏款"本我"价格跌幅超38%。 有分析称，Labubu价格大跌的原因是，泡泡玛特官方大量补货。自6月18日下午开始，泡泡玛特官方商城小程 序多次弹出相关商品的补货通知，同时在天猫官方旗舰店、抖音潮玩直播间等也大量放货。 在资本市场上，此前持续暴涨的泡泡玛特股价也遭遇重挫。6月19日，泡泡玛特股价大跌超5%，最新股价报 248.6港元，相较于6月12日创出的最高点，累计跌幅超12%。 价格崩盘 受泡泡玛特官方大量补货影响，Labubu在二手市场的交易价格突然暴跌。 以千岛APP上的"前方高能"系列Labubu挂件为例，其成交均价接近"腰斩"，从2279.7元跌至1181.3元，跌幅超 48%。 值得注意的是，这波降价潮已经蔓延至整个Labubu系列。千岛APP今日数据显示，Labubu"前方高能"系列常规 款的价格区间已回落至208元至385元，而隐藏款"本我"价格为2048元。 而在一周前的6月10日，千岛APP常规款的价格尚 ...

Core Viewpoint - Haitian Flavor Industry, a leading soy sauce company in China, successfully listed on the Hong Kong stock market on June 19, raising over HKD 10 billion, setting a record for IPOs in the consumer sector this year, surpassing Mixue Ice City. However, its debut was underwhelming, with a slight increase of only 0.55% on the first day, nearly facing a drop below the issue price [2][6]. Fundraising and Subscription Details - The final offer price for Haitian Flavor was set at HKD 36.30, at the top of the pricing range of HKD 35.00 to HKD 36.30. The subscription enthusiasm was exceptionally high, with retail investors showing a subscription multiple of 918.15 times and institutional investors at 22.93 times, surpassing the previous record set by CATL [3][4]. - The total number of applications received was 172,096, with 379,668 valid applications. The number of shares available for public offering was 15,794,300, which accounted for 19.81% of the total global offering [4]. Investor Participation - A significant number of well-known domestic and international institutions participated as cornerstone investors, including Sinopec (Hong Kong), Kuwait Investment Authority, and UBS Asset Management, among others [4][5]. Market Position and Performance - Haitian Flavor is the leading condiment company in China, holding a market share of 4.8% in the Chinese condiment market, which is projected to reach approximately RMB 498.1 billion in 2024. The company has maintained its position as the largest condiment enterprise in China for 28 consecutive years [6][7]. - In terms of specific products, Haitian Flavor ranks first in both the Chinese and global markets for soy sauce and oyster sauce, with market shares of 13.2% and 40.2% in China, respectively [6][7]. Future Plans - Following the fundraising, Haitian Flavor plans to allocate approximately 20% of the net proceeds for product development and technological upgrades, 30% for capacity expansion and supply chain digitalization, and 20% for enhancing its global brand image and sales channels [7].

Market Performance - A-shares experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.79% to 3362.11 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index down by 1.50%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.70% [1] - The total trading volume across A-shares was 12,809 billion, slightly up from 12,218 billion the previous day [1] - In terms of sector performance, oil and gas sectors showed strength, while hotel and restaurant, and banking sectors performed relatively better [1] Geopolitical Impact - Ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, lasting for 7 days, contributing to market volatility and increased risk aversion [1] - A-shares are affected by geopolitical tensions, though to a lesser extent compared to Hong Kong stocks, which saw a notable decline [1] Federal Reserve Update - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [2] - The "dot plot" indicates that most Fed members expect a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, likely in two 25 basis point increments [2] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed will not cut rates in July, with potential cuts anticipated in September [2]