Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Wells Fargo economists predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will rise by 0.2% after a surprising decline of 0.1% in March, leading to an annual CPI rate of 2.3%, the lowest in four years [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and emphasizes the need to observe the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - UBS Wealth Management highlights that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve could significantly damage the dollar's safe-haven status, with currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting in the current environment [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Analysts at Societe Generale note a trend of investors shifting from U.S. assets to European assets, although this transition may take time to fully materialize [4] - Bank of America indicates that the recent surge in interest in European markets does not necessarily signal a structural shift, as many institutional investors remain cautious about large-scale capital transfers from the U.S. [5] - Citic Securities maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodities market, citing OPEC+'s unexpected production increase as a factor that may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [6][5] Group 3: Commodity Price Forecasts - KPMG has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of the year down from $70 to $60 per barrel, reflecting improved global oil supply conditions [6] - Barclays has postponed its forecast for the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike to January 2026, adjusting its final rate prediction down to 1.00% [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Galaxy Securities reports a significant increase in global gold ETF inflows in Q1 2025, with net purchases by central banks remaining strong, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [8] - The automotive market in China is expected to see a rebound in sales, driven by the release of new models and the end of consumer hesitation following the Shanghai Auto Show [8]

三菱日联：美联储对降息的谨慎态度不一定令美元走强 金十数据5月7日讯，三菱日联银行分析师哈尔潘尼在一份报告中说，如果美联储在周三的会议上对未来 几个月降息的可能性持谨慎态度，美元不一定会升值。他说，自4月初以来，欧元走强，尽管欧盟与美 国两年期国债的收益率差已经向有利于美国的方向移动。这意味着有关降息的谨慎信号不一定会提振美 元。哈尔潘尼说，政策的不确定性以及对美国经济将走弱的强烈预期意味着美元可能会保持疲软或进一 步走弱。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by a combination of factors, including a softening stance from the US on tariff negotiations and proactive macroeconomic policies from China aimed at stabilizing the economy [1][2][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - On May 6, the onshore RMB rose significantly against the US dollar, reaching a high of 7.2105, the highest level since November of the previous year [1]. - During the May Day holiday, the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.9%, with notable increases of over 650 points on May 2 and again on May 5, peaking at 7.19 [1]. - The RMB's overall stability amidst global market fluctuations caused by US tariff policies indicates a resilient exchange rate [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Strength - The recent strength of the RMB is attributed to the US's willingness to engage in tariff negotiations, as indicated by statements from US officials, which has positively influenced the RMB's value [2]. - The Chinese government's commitment to implementing proactive macroeconomic policies, as discussed in the April 25 Politburo meeting, aims to stabilize employment and market expectations, further supporting the RMB [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - The future trajectory of the RMB will largely depend on the progress of US-China trade talks and the performance of the US dollar [4]. - The potential for a more flexible US stance on tariffs may reduce downward pressure on the RMB, suggesting that the most significant depreciation risks may have passed [4]. - The RMB is expected to exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern against the dollar, with relatively smaller volatility compared to other major currencies [4]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals Supporting RMB Stability - The foundation for maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate is strong, supported by positive domestic economic indicators and China's institutional advantages, including a large market and effective governance mechanisms [5]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system, aiming to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB [5].

近几日，人民币汇率表现亮眼。5月6日，人民币对美元中间价报7.2，较前一交易日上调6个基点。5月5 日，人民币对美元汇率依然走高。离岸人民币盘中一度升穿7.2关口，为去年11月以来首次，创近半年 以来新高。专家分析，近期人民币暴涨主要有两方面原因。第一是美方在关税问题上的态度有了变化； 第二是国内稳经济政策提供了关键支撑。未来汇率会怎么走？东方金诚研究发展部王青认为，主要有两 大关键：一是中美谈判进展；二是美元走势。未来人民币更可能出现一个与美元走势相反的双向波动过 程。不过别担心，这种波动幅度相对较小。而且相对于其它主要货币来说，人民币则要稳定得多。(国 是直通车) ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data exceeded market expectations, indicating a steady expansion in the labor market, but signs of cooling are emerging, suggesting potential future increases in the unemployment rate [1][5][17]. Employment Data Summary - In April, the U.S. added 177,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 138,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2% and a labor participation rate of 62.6% [1][5]. - The three-month moving average for job additions stands at 155,000, reflecting a stable growth trend [5]. - Job growth is concentrated in sectors experiencing labor shortages, with education and healthcare contributing 70,000 jobs, trade adding 29,000, and leisure and hospitality contributing 24,000, accounting for 69.5% of the total job additions [5][6]. Signs of Labor Market Cooling - Job vacancy rates have declined, with the vacancy rate dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 4.3%, indicating a potential shift towards equilibrium in the labor market [8][10]. - The ratio of job vacancies to job seekers has decreased to 1.03, suggesting that the labor market is nearing a balance between supply and demand [8]. - Wage growth has softened, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, indicating a shift from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market" [12][14]. Unemployment Structure and Trends - The number of permanent jobless individuals surged by 105,000 to 1.915 million, while the number of individuals re-entering the labor market increased by 60,000 to 2.236 million, reflecting a deteriorating unemployment structure [15][17]. - Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 18,000 to 241,000, significantly above seasonal levels, indicating rising unemployment [15][16]. Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy - The combination of tariff impacts on corporate profits and household finances may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts mid-year [17][19]. - Long-term, the strict immigration policies may affect labor supply, and the anticipated decline in interest rates could support economic stability, suggesting that any rise in unemployment may be relatively moderate [17][19]. Market Strategy - The company maintains a cautious approach towards U.S. Treasury bonds, with entry points set at 4.4% for 10-year bonds and 4.1% for 5-year bonds, while also anticipating a potential technical rebound in the U.S. dollar in Q2 [3][19]. - The market's reaction to the strong employment data indicates a belief in the resilience of the labor market, with expectations of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has shown strong performance during the May Day holiday, with a cumulative increase of 687 basis points to 7.2011 against the USD, indicating a potential upward adjustment for the onshore RMB post-holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Performance - Four main reasons are identified for the recent strength of the offshore RMB: 1. Record high travel data during the May Day holiday may inject more economic growth momentum 2. Positive signals from Sino-U.S. trade negotiations during the holiday 3. Increased allocation of risk-averse funds into RMB assets 4. A declining trend in the USD index, leading to a gradual release of settlement demand [4][5]. Group 2: Sino-U.S. Trade Negotiations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted that the U.S. has expressed willingness to negotiate on tariff issues, suggesting a softening stance that could facilitate trade dialogue and address high tariffs, contributing to the RMB's recent strength [4][5]. - Analysts expect that the RMB's future performance will largely depend on the progress of Sino-U.S. trade talks and the movement of the USD [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The offshore RMB market experienced lower trading activity during the holiday, which may have amplified the rise in the RMB due to short-covering by overseas institutions [4]. - The overall sentiment in the foreign exchange market has improved due to favorable news from Sino-U.S. negotiations, leading to a potential decrease in tariff pressure on the RMB [5][6]. Group 4: Broader Currency Trends - Other Asian currencies, including the Hong Kong dollar and New Taiwan dollar, have also appreciated against the USD, indicating a regional trend of currency strengthening [7][8]. - Market expectations suggest that the USD may continue to weaken, influenced by the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions and ongoing trade dynamics [9].

第一季度财报季总体进展顺利，因为这是特朗普关税政策产生影响之前的最后一个季度。 根据巴克莱银行的数据，标普 500 指数（^GSPC）成分股公司本季度的盈利同比增长 7.9%。盈利超出 预期的平均幅度为 10.2%，而长期平均超出预期幅度为 5.2%。 苹果（AAPL）、字母表公司（GOOG， GOOGL）和微软（MSFT）等家喻户晓的公司，其业绩令华尔 街印象深刻。 但标普 500 指数成分股公司是否能够实现预计 10% 的每股收益增长率仍存疑问，它们的估值前景同样 如此。 考克斯警告称："我认为让很多华尔街人士担忧的是，感觉最糟糕的情况还在后头。" 从企业高管到普通消费者，每个人都在担心关税带来的影响，投资者在寻找合理估值的过程中，股票市 场也随之大幅波动。 在 4 月初的 "解放日" 之后，股票市场大幅下跌，并在 4 月 7 日触底，随后随着财报陆续公布，股票市 场在当月反弹回升。 可口可乐（KO）董事长兼首席执行官詹姆斯・昆西告诉索齐，谨慎的消费者在超市的购买量有所减 少。 昆西解释道："疲软就集中在这个方面，我认为这在一定程度上表明了低收入消费者面临的一些购买力 压力，以及一些地缘政治因素的影响。" ...

1. 新台币兑美元盘初升破30大关，报29.990，日内涨近3.5%，为2023年2月8日以来新高。 2. 离岸人民币兑美元升穿7.20关口，为去年11月以来首次，日内涨超100点。 3. 马来西亚林吉特兑美元涨1%，升至去年10月份来新高。 4. 美元指数DXY开盘即下破100，美元兑日元USD/JPY日内走低0.50%。 5. 纽元兑美元NZD/USD、澳元兑美元AUD/USD日内均涨超0.50%。 金十整理：美元全线走低，亚太货币集体上扬 ...

如果ISM数据逊于预期，美元可能转跌 荷兰国际集团分析师特纳在一份报告中说，如果美国ISM制造业报告弱于预期，美元可能会走低。 市 场对制造业PMI的预估已经相当低，因此任何低于该指数的情况都可能"引发美元再次走低"。经济学家 预计，该指数将从3月份的49.0降至4月份的47.8。 ...

金十数据4月30日讯，瑞银全球财富管理分析师在一份报告中说，美元看起来超卖，近期将面临一段盘 整期。美联储主席鲍威尔不太可能被迫辞职，在其他央行放松（政策）之际，美联储在降息问题上听起 来很谨慎。然而，分析师们表示，从中期来看，美元走软的趋势可能会恢复。美国经济放缓的幅度可能 大于其他地区，财政赤字上升将成为更大的焦点，美联储可能在今年晚些时候恢复降息。瑞银倾向于利 用近期美元走强的时机减少美元配置，转而选择日圆、欧元、英镑和澳元等货币。 瑞银：美元近期可能盘整，但随后可能再度下跌 ...