日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普将在两周内决定是否打击伊朗，A 股出 现单边回调 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-20 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普将在两周内决定是否打击伊朗 特朗普两周之内做出是否打击伊朗的决定，这意味着事态没有 进一步升级，进入到焦灼状态，市场短期维持震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 2035 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 后续宽货币等利多难被证伪，因此多头情绪难以趋势性退潮， 债牛尚未结束，多头可继续持有。 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 合 A 股单边回调 晨 报 A 股单边下跌，既有政策不及预期的原因，又有自身结构脆弱估 值偏高的压力。总体而言，宣泄成为纾解高估的方式之一，为 下一轮上行提供便宜的筹码。 农产品（玉米淀粉） 淀粉糖产品原料消耗量增加 淀粉糖产品原料消耗量增加 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比下降 15.67 万吨 本周五大品种库存去化有所加速，现货基本面依然相对坚挺。 螺纹表需环比回落不大，同比仍在-7%左右。由于淡季累库尚未 出现，钢价延续震荡小幅反弹，但走弱预期仍难证伪。 能源化工（PTA） 江浙终端开工率 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 李卓雅 【贵金属】黄金市场周四小幅回撤，沪金主力合约跌至 784 元/克一线，白银波动 加剧回落至 8814 一线。美联储维持鹰派表达，上调失业率预测同时降低经济预 期，鲍威尔多次强调对于通胀的担忧。 ...

英国至6月19日英国央行MPC投票赞成维持利率不变 6，预期7，前值2。 ...

金十数据6月19日讯，英国央行将政策利率维持在4.25%不变，符合市场预期，利率保持在逾两年高 位。 英国央行维持利率不变 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [1] - The financial market showed minimal reaction to the Fed's decision, with the S&P 500 index down 0.03% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.10% [1] - The ten-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.394%, and the dollar index increased by 0.06% to 98.46 points [1] Group 2 - The Fed's economic outlook reflects a collective understanding among its economists, with predictions for GDP growth in 2025 revised down to 1.4% from a previous estimate of 1.7% [2][3] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by the end of this year, indicating a potential slowdown in the job market [3] - Inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is anticipated to increase, with core PCE projected at 3.1% for 2025 [3] Group 3 - The complexity of inflation is heightened by domestic economic policies and international geopolitical conflicts, with tariffs expected to raise consumer prices [4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern tensions, could significantly impact global inflation [4] - The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts, with 10 out of 19 officials suggesting the possibility of two rate cuts this year, while others remain skeptical [4][5] Group 4 - High interest rates are suppressing economic activity, with mortgage rates at 6.89% and credit card rates exceeding 20% [5] - The potential for stagflation is a concern, as low retail growth could lead to a chain reaction affecting the job market [5] - The Fed is willing to sacrifice employment and economic growth to maintain a low inflation environment [5] Group 5 - The upcoming earnings reports in July will be crucial for assessing corporate performance amid uncertainty, particularly regarding the impact of tariff policies [6] - The U.S. Treasury issuance market is under scrutiny, reflecting foreign investors' willingness to purchase U.S. bonds [6] - The credibility of the U.S. dollar is questioned in the context of a move away from dollar dominance [6]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 781.24 | -4.18 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8819 | -226 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 161031 | -1390 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 387527 | -58454 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 142510 | -3319 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 107337 | -10313 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 18168 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1242994 | 13962 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 781.1 | -1.69 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8854 | -104 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -0.14 | 2.49 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) | 35 | 122 | | ...

瑞士央行行长：我们不会轻易做出降息至负利率的决定。绝不排除采取任何关于利率的措施。 ...

KVB App发现北京时间周四凌晨 02:00，美联储货币政策会议落下帷幕，第四次选择按兵不动，将基准利率 目标区间稳定在 4.25%-4.50%，这一决策与市场此前预期高度契合。然而，这看似平稳的决定背后，实则暗 流涌动，各方围绕利率政策展开了激烈的博弈与角力。 在美联储公布利率决议前，美国总统特朗普便率先 "开火"。当天稍早，特朗普毫不留情地抨击了这一市场 早已预期的利率决定，言辞激烈地呼吁美联储大幅降息 100 到 250 个基点。特朗普的不满由来已久，他多 次公开指责美联储主席鲍威尔，即便上个月两人还在椭圆形办公室会面，也未能缓和他对美联储货币政策 的不满情绪。在白宫面对媒体时，特朗普直言 "我们美联储那边有一个说实话很愚蠢的人"，毫不掩饰对美 联储决策层的批评。 特朗普如此迫切地希望降息，有着自己的算盘。他认为大幅降息能够让美国财政部以更低的成本发行长期 债务，从而减轻政府的债务压力。特朗普甚至提出，若未来美联储担忧的通胀问题真的出现，届时再加息 也不迟。值得注意的是，鲍威尔由特朗普于 2018 年任命，目前任期还剩一年，特朗普更是放言，等明年自 己更换鲍威尔后，预计美联储将顺应他的意愿进行降息。 ...

昨天，发生了哪些财经大事？ 美联储凌晨重磅， 鲍威尔发声 当地时间6月18日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示， 美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是美联储货币政 策会议连续第四次决定维持利率不变 。 美联储官员预计未来几个月美国通胀情况将恶化，但 仍预计在2025年年底前将降息两次， 与3月份的预测一致 。美联储预计，相比于3月份的预测，到2025年年底美国经济增长将明 显放缓，通胀将上升，失业率将略有上升。美联储官员预计，美国通胀率到2025年年底将 升至3%，失业率将升至4.5%，经济增长率将放缓至1.4%。 美联储主席鲍威尔当日警告 称，不要过分相信美联储的利率预测，因为预测可能会根据公布的数据而发生变化，尤其是 通胀数据 。鲍威尔在美联储政策会议后的新闻发布会上表示，没有人对这些利率预测抱有 绝对的信心，这些都将取决于数据。 美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，纳指涨0.13%，标普500指数跌0.03%，道指跌0.1% ； Circle大涨近34%，创IPO以来最大单日涨幅，股价逼近200美元，再创新高；大型科技股 涨多跌少，英特尔涨超3% ...

Domestic News - The People's Bank of China announced eight significant financial opening measures at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced the "1+6" policy measures to deepen reforms, establishing a new growth tier for technology innovation [5] - The CSRC will allow qualified foreign investors to participate in ETF options trading, effective from October 9, 2025 [5] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange released a draft notice on deepening cross-border investment and financing foreign exchange management reforms [5] International News - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts this year, but the number of officials not expecting cuts increased to seven [3] - Trump reiterated that the Federal Reserve should cut rates by 200 basis points, suggesting that a 250 basis point cut would be very beneficial [5] - Brazil's central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 15%, while the market had anticipated a hold at 14.75% [5] - Foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasury securities are nearing record highs, with China reducing its holdings in April while the UK and Japan increased theirs [5]