上证指数早盘收报3608.58点，涨0.75%。 科创50早盘收报1026.09点，涨0.97%。 中证500早盘收报6241.73点，涨0.46%。 中证1000早盘收报6651.19点，涨0.21%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3608.58 | 26.71 | 0.75% | 5220亿 | 7.66% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 11134.07 | 34.24 | 0.31% | 6160亿 | 6.91% | | 899050 | 北证50 | 1451.00 | -7.86 | -0.54% | 217亿 | 39.81% | | 881001 | 万得全A | 5606.44 | 22.96 | 0.41% | 11595亿 | 11.64% | | 000688 | 科创50 | 1026.09 | 9.83 | 0.97% | 19067 | 3.76% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 232 ...

业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月23日 我就必 Z0019144 | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | --- | | I A F DEHANT CALL | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 7月22日 | 7月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 山东32%液碱折自价 | 2593.8 | 2593.8 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2680.0 | 2740.0 | -60.0 | -2.2% | | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 5080.0 | 5040.0 | 40.0 | 0.8% | | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5100.0 | 5100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | SH2509 | 2658.0 | 2569.0 | 89.0 | 3.5% | | | SH2601 | 2699.0 | 2556.0 | 143.0 | 5.6% | | | SH基美 | -64.3 | 24.8 | -89.0 | -3 ...

美日达成贸易协议关税降至15%，日本首相石破茂拟于8月末辞职，日股大涨日元先涨后跌，当前美/日空头占优，后市情绪如 何？欢迎前往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数据每10分钟更新1次）。 香港恒生指数 52% 48% 标普500指数 69% 31% 纳斯达克指数 55% 45% 道琼斯指数 36% 64% 日经225指数 56% 44% 德国DAX40指 35% 65% 数 外汇 r 多头 空头 欧元/美元 14% 86% 欧元/英镑 86% 14% 欧元/日元 11% 89% 欧元/澳元 92% 8% 英镑/美元 22% 78% 英镑/日元 31% 69% 美元/日元 58% 42% 美元/加元 21% 79% 美元/瑞郎 94% 6% 免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不作为任何投资建议。 澳元/美元 53% 47% 澳元/日元 56% 44% 加元/日元 59% 41% 纽元/美元 39% 61% 纽元/日元 41% 59% 美元/离岸人 87% 13% 民币 ...

摘要今日周三（7月23日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于3420.59美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金暂报 3422.78美元/盎司，跌幅0.25%，最高上探3438.54美元/盎司，最低触及3420.49美元/盎司。目前来看， 国际黄金短线偏向看跌走势。 今日周三（7月23日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于3420.59美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金暂报 3422.78美元/盎司，跌幅0.25%，最高上探3438.54美元/盎司，最低触及3420.49美元/盎司。目前来看， 国际黄金短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 据报道，美国财政部长贝森特当地时间22日在接受福克斯新闻采访时宣布，第三轮中美贸易谈判将于下 周一、周二在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行。此前双方在日内瓦和伦敦举行了两次会谈。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 从技术走势看，黄金已突破3400美元阻力位，确认突破近几周形成的对称三角形形态。价格走势和相对 强弱指数（RSI）均显示看涨动能支撑这一突破——目前RSI接近63，表明在进入超买区间前仍有上行 空间。黄金当前保持强劲的看涨结构，关键支撑位在3331美元至3310美元之间。 价格已稳稳站在4月低点至高点涨幅的23.6% ...

会学习是能力的一部分，如果每一颗饭粒都要用筷子戳到嘴里，那不饿死才是比较奇怪的。坊间盛传一 种读书无用论，还有一种你必须教会我论，其实并不是书无用，也不是教书先生没墨水，而是他们抱怨 没有那根戳到嘴里的筷子。 今天行情，哈哈，请重温前几天的一篇有点旧的新文： 最近有好几个网友发来私信表示感谢，当然我也很开心，因为他们肯下功夫，有所得。 任何行当，不学习肯定是不行的，不思考也肯定是不行的，学习、思考、磨练，这是一个不断精进的过 程，不要幻想一步登天。 CXO格局已成，崭新的进攻型主线 ...

Core Insights - The commercial market in Beijing is experiencing a significant boost with the introduction of major new projects and flagship stores, enhancing the offline consumption landscape [1][29] - The number of new flagship stores opened in Q2 2025 has surged, outperforming the previous two years, indicating a strong recovery in consumer interest [2][29] - The focus on experiential and emotional value in consumer behavior is driving innovation in the restaurant and retail sectors, with brands emphasizing customization and unique experiences [10][29] Group 1: New Store Openings - In Q2 2025, Beijing saw the opening of 80 flagship stores, a substantial increase from 48 in the same period last year and 50 two years ago [2] - The first month of May recorded the highest number of new flagship store openings, with 31 stores launched [3] - The new openings included 13 national flagship stores, 5 North China flagship stores, and 62 Beijing flagship stores, showcasing a diverse range of brands [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The restaurant sector led the way with 42 new flagship stores, compared to 33 in retail, indicating a strong trend towards dining experiences [7] - Emerging restaurant brands are actively expanding, while retail brands are also eager to enter the Beijing market, reflecting growing confidence [7][24] - Notable new restaurant concepts include unique regional cuisines and innovative dining experiences, appealing to both local and tourist demographics [17][24] Group 3: Consumer Trends - The consumer market is undergoing a transformation, with a shift towards rational spending and a focus on experience and value [10] - Brands are increasingly adopting a multi-faceted approach to create engaging shopping and dining environments, enhancing the overall consumer experience [10][11] - The rise of the "self-indulgence economy" is evident, with brands focusing on personalized and immersive experiences [10] Group 4: Policy Support - Various government initiatives have been introduced to stimulate consumption, including financial support for commercial projects and the promotion of flagship store openings [29][30] - The Beijing government aims to establish the city as a global flagship center, encouraging the introduction of high-quality brands and innovative concepts [29][30] - Upcoming projects and urban renewal initiatives are expected to further enhance the commercial landscape and consumer engagement in the latter half of 2025 [30]

研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 23 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货7月22日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2508 | 2,300.3 | 2,320.0 | 2,249.7 | 2,276.1 | -50.6 | -2 ...

2025 年 7 月 23 日 硅铁：宏观行情推涨，偏强震荡 锰硅：宏观行情推涨，偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | 期 货 | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2508 | 5858 | 206 | 2,281 | 8,773 | | | 硅铁2509 | 5874 | 206 | 310,983 | 191,798 | | | 锰硅2508 | 6006 | 100 | 1,259 | 11,074 | | | 锰硅2509 | 6012 | 9 8 | 410,587 | 346,266 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5300 | - | 元/吨 | | | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17: ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The futures market was boosted by relevant policies, and there are expectations for industry capacity reduction. The caustic soda spot market had average transactions, with prices in Shandong and Guangdong decreasing. Low - concentration caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The PVC spot market had light transactions, and the current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions in caustic soda and temporarily observe for PVC [6]. Methanol - Inland prices fluctuated slightly. Supply had high maintenance losses in July but there are expectations of resumption. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season. At the port, the basis strengthened, overseas Iranian device production returned, and there will be inventory accumulation from July to August. It is recommended to observe the market [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is less affected, but demand support is weak. PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, while ethylene glycol supply - demand is expected to improve in the short term. Short - fiber supply and demand are both weak, and bottle - chip supply - demand has improvement expectations but is still affected by high supply and inventory. Different strategies are recommended for each product [11]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly due to macro - pressure. The approaching US trade negotiation deadline and the lack of progress in negotiations have suppressed demand expectations. Although there are expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventory, trade tariff uncertainty is the core contradiction. It is recommended to adopt short - term band strategies [16]. Urea - The core driver of the urea futures market comes from macro - policies. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [24][25]. Polyolefins - The marginal profit of PP and PE is gradually recovering, and supply and demand are both contracting, with inventory accumulation and weak demand. At the end of July, demand is expected to pick up seasonally. It is recommended to be short - biased on PP and buy within the range for PE [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve slightly, but its own driving force is limited due to high import expectations and port inventory. Short - term pure benzene may be boosted but with limited rebound space. The supply - demand of styrene is marginally repaired but still weak, and its increase is limited. Different strategies are recommended for each [31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.2%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.8%. Futures prices generally rose, and basis and spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Supply**: From July 11 to July 18, the caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.3%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 2.0% [4]. - **Demand**: From July 11 to July 18, the alumina industry's operating rate increased by 1.0%, and the viscose staple fiber industry's operating rate increased by 8.7%. The operating rate of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased [5][6]. - **Inventory**: From July 10 to July 17, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the upstream factory inventory of PVC decreased, and the total social inventory increased [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, and the basis and spreads changed. Regional spot prices also had different changes [8]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 1.28%, and the port and social inventories increased [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.94%, and some downstream operating rates changed, such as the MTBE operating rate increasing by 3.46% [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha changed slightly. PX, PTA, and other prices and spreads also had corresponding adjustments [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of Asian and Chinese PX, PTA, and MEG all had different degrees of change, and the comprehensive operating rate of polyester decreased by 0.5% [11]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 3.6% from July 14 to July 21 [11]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 23, compared with July 22, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.90%, WTI increased by 0.52%. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 also changed [16]. - **Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and ICE Gasoil had different changes, and the spreads also changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of urea contracts generally increased, and spot prices in different regions also had small increases [19][23]. - **Supply and Demand**: From July 17 to July 18, the domestic urea daily output decreased by 0.25%, and the factory inventory decreased by 7.46% from July 11 to July 18 [24]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of L2601 and PP2601 increased, and spot prices of PP and LLDPE also increased. Spreads and basis changed significantly [29]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the inventory of PE and PP enterprises and traders increased [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of pure benzene and styrene and their spreads changed [31]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries also had different degrees of change [31].

Core Insights - The 2025 New京报贝壳财经 Annual Conference highlighted the theme "China's Economy: Co-Growth of Openness and Resilience," focusing on the evolving consumption patterns of young people in China [1] - A report released by Fudan University professor Zhang Yina indicates that young consumers are redefining "usefulness" to include emotional value, local cultural recognition, and social potential, moving beyond traditional functional utility [1][4] Emotional Value in Consumption - Emotional consumption is becoming a significant driver, with 99.9% of respondents willing to pay for emotional value, indicating a shift from functionality to emotional resonance in purchasing decisions [8][4] - By 2025, the emotional consumption market in China is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a growing trend where consumers prioritize emotional satisfaction over traditional utility [5][4] - The proportion of emotional consumption in total spending has shifted towards the middle ground, with more consumers integrating emotional spending into their budgets [11] Social Dynamics and Relationships - Young people are increasingly favoring "modular socializing," where social relationships are formed based on specific needs and interests rather than traditional definitions of friendship [18][20] - The concept of "搭子" (togetherness) is emerging as a dominant social model, allowing individuals to connect based on shared activities without the emotional burdens of deep relationships [19][21] - Approximately 61.5% of respondents prefer to find social partners through work-related activities, indicating a trend towards functional and efficient social interactions [23] Independent Living Trends - Over 52% of respondents prioritize stable income as the most critical factor for independent living, highlighting the importance of financial security in the pursuit of autonomy [31] - The proportion of single-person households in China has increased significantly, with projections indicating that by 2030, the number of single-person households could reach between 150 million to 200 million [29][31] - Young consumers are increasingly transforming their living spaces into personal sanctuaries, utilizing urban infrastructure for relaxation and emotional well-being [28][29]