Group 1 - The United States has reached a "comprehensive and complete" trade agreement with South Korea, which includes South Korea providing $350 billion for U.S.-controlled investment projects [1] - South Korea will also purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas or other energy products and commit to reinvesting a significant amount for domestic investment purposes [1] - The agreement stipulates that the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on South Korea, while South Korea will fully open trade to U.S. products, including automobiles, trucks, and agricultural products [1] Group 2 - The U.S. has also reached trade agreements with the European Union and Japan, with both parties committing to invest $550 billion and $600 billion respectively in the U.S. and increase purchases of American goods [3][4] - Analysts suggest that these agreements may superficially ease trade tensions but reflect the U.S.'s use of economic dominance for coercive purposes, indicative of "new economic colonialism" [4] - President Trump has indicated that the deadline for imposing new tariffs on August 1 will not be extended, emphasizing the significance of this date for the U.S. [4]

美国6月整体及核心CPI略有反弹，供应管理会制造业PMI连续4个月低于荣枯线50，但6月失业率下行至 4.1%，显示美国就业形势稳定，而美国刚公布的二季度GDP初值环比折年率超预期达到3%。另外，美 国"对等关税"大限在即，特朗普总统多次施压引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，均使美联储7月会议结 果备受关注。美东时间7月30日，美联储7月会议维持政策利率不变，但有两位委员表明应立即降息。美 股表现分化：万得数据显示，昨夜道琼斯指数下跌0.38%，标普500指数下跌0.12%，纳斯达克指数上 0.15%，美元指数几乎平盘，美国10年期国债收益率收在4.38%。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 美联储本次会议决议及会后鲍威尔发言重点包括了： 一：虽然净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓，经济前景不确定 性仍然偏高，委员会决定将联邦基准利率区间维持4.25%至4.5%不变。 二：会后声明指出，劳动力市场依然稳定，失业率保持低位，但通胀仍然偏高；在评估适当的货币政策 立场时，委员会关注政策使命的双重风险。 三、米歇尔·勒鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒持两位委员 ...

专题：美联储如预期所料按兵不动 利率声明暗示降息之日渐近 7月31日，美国6月整体及核心CPI略有反弹，供应管理会制造业PMI连续4个月低于荣枯线50，但6月失 业率下行至4.1%，显示美国就业形势稳定，而美国刚公布的二季度GDP初值环比折年率超预期达到 3%。另外，美国"对等关税"大限在即，特朗普总统多次施压引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，均使美 联储7月会议结果备受关注。美东时间7月30日，美联储7月会议维持政策利率不变，但有两位委员表明 应立即降息。美股表現分化：万得数据显示，昨夜道琼斯指数下跌0.38%，标普500指数下跌0.12%，纳 斯达克指数上0.15%，美元指数几乎平盘，美国10年期国债收益率收在4.38%。 美联储本次会议决议及会后鲍威尔发言重点包括了： 一：虽然净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓，经济前景不确定 性仍然偏高，委员会决定将联邦基准利率区间维持4.25%至4.5%不变。 二：会后声明指出，劳动力市场依然稳定，失业率保持低位，但通胀仍然偏高；在评估适当的货币政策 立场时，委员会关注政策使命的双重风险。 三、米歇尔-勒鲍曼和克里斯托弗-沃勒持两位委员持 ...

Group 1: Tariff Announcements - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on South Korean goods and a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1 [1][2] - Brazil will face a 40% tariff, raising the total tariff to 50% on certain products [2] - A 50% tariff will be applied to various semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives [3] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - South Korea will invest $350 billion in U.S. controlled projects and purchase $100 billion worth of LNG or other energy products [1] - The trade deficit between the U.S. and India is significant, with U.S.-India trade estimated at $128.8 billion for 2024 and India having a trade surplus of $45.8 billion [2] - Following the tariff announcements, copper prices in New York fell nearly 20% [4]

Core Viewpoint - South Korea has agreed to purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Trade Agreements - South Korea's counterpart tariffs and auto tariffs will be set at 15% [1] - Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper are excluded from this agreement [1] Industry Specifics - South Korea will not face discrimination in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors [1]

Group 1 - The White House announced that copper raw materials and scrap copper are exempt from tariffs under Section 232 or reciprocal tariffs [1]

关税最新。 美国总统特朗普7月29日表示，美国可能对印度输美产品征收20%至25%的关税，但尚未最后决定。 特朗普当天乘专机从英国返美途中对媒体记者说，印度对美国产品征收的关税几乎高于任何其他国家对 美国产品征收的关税，"你（印度）不能这么做"。 特朗普25日表示，美国将向近200个贸易伙伴致信，确定美国对这些国家产品的关税税率。他此前威 胁，将从8月1日开始向未能与美国达成贸易协议的贸易伙伴征收高关税。 美国贸易代表格里尔28日表示，美国需要更多时间与印度谈判，以评估印度向美国开放更多市场的意 愿。 对于特朗普最新关税威胁，印度官方尚未回应。 特朗普4月2日公布所谓"对等关税"措施后，美印双方举行了多轮会谈，但谈判仍陷于僵局。据报道，印 度在保护农业和乳业方面持强硬立场，双方还在购买俄罗斯石油等方面存在分歧。有媒体报道称，印度 计划于8月中旬与美方重启范围更广的贸易谈判。 美国商务部数据显示，2024年，美国与印度的商品贸易金额大约为1288亿美元，印度对美贸易顺差为 458亿美元。 美商务部长称8月1日加征关税期限将不再延长 当地时间7月27日，美国商务部长卢特尼克在接受采访时表示，美国将不再延长8月1日 ...

特朗普发帖抱怨印度关税税率太高，非关税壁垒又比其他任何国家都要"繁重和讨厌"，导致美印贸易多 年来维持较小规模。他随后发帖说："我们与印度之间贸易逆差巨大。" 新华财经纽约7月30日电（记者刘亚南）美国总统特朗普30日通过社交媒体宣布，将从8月1日起对印度 输美商品征收25%的关税并实施其他"惩罚"。 （文章来源：新华财经） 4月2日，美方公布所谓"对等关税"后，美印双方举行多轮会谈，但谈判陷于僵局。据报道，印度在保护 农业和乳制品产业等方面立场强硬。美国商务部数据显示，2024年，美印货物贸易规模约为1288亿美 元，印度对美贸易顺差为458亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the upcoming meeting, with a very low probability of a rate cut at only 3% [1][2] Group 1: External Pressures - President Trump has been vocally critical of the Federal Reserve, questioning its spending on renovations and pressuring for rate cuts to alleviate government debt costs [1] - The White House's proximity to the Federal Reserve has intensified the scrutiny and criticism directed at Chairman Powell [2] Group 2: Internal Dissent - There is a possibility that multiple Federal Reserve governors may vote against the decision for the first time in over 30 years, with the last occurrence dating back to 1993 [2] - Analysts predict that governors Waller and Bowman may cast dissenting votes due to concerns over high interest rates amid rising employment risks [7][8] Group 3: Upcoming Meeting Highlights - Key changes in the Federal Reserve's statement are anticipated, particularly regarding the assessment of economic uncertainty, which may remain at a high level [4][5] - The upcoming GDP data release is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's economic outlook, with a potential downgrade from "solid" to "moderate" growth [6] Group 4: Rate Cut Signals - The likelihood of Powell signaling a September rate cut during the meeting is considered low, but investors will look for clues during his press conference [9][10] - Current market pricing suggests a greater than 60% probability of a rate cut in September, although the Federal Reserve may be cautious about raising these expectations before key economic data is released [12] Group 5: Trade and Tariff Impacts - Powell may face questions regarding the impact of upcoming tariffs on inflation and economic conditions, as uncertainty continues to affect business decisions [14][15] - The delayed implementation of tariffs is expected to have a gradual impact on prices, with businesses currently absorbing some of the costs [15] Group 6: Political Pressures - Powell is likely to be questioned about the influence of political pressures on monetary policy decisions, particularly in light of recent scrutiny from the Trump administration [16][17] - The potential for an internal review of the Federal Reserve's non-monetary policy functions has been suggested, indicating a need for clarity on the institution's mission [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential imposition of tariffs by the United States on Indian products, with President Trump indicating a possible rate of 20% to 25% [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Discussions - President Trump stated that India imposes higher tariffs on U.S. products compared to other countries, emphasizing the need for a trade agreement [2]. - The U.S. Trade Representative, Lighthizer, mentioned that more time is needed to negotiate with India regarding market access [3]. - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that the deadline for imposing tariffs on August 1 will not be extended [6][7]. Group 2: Trade Data - In 2024, the trade volume between the U.S. and India is projected to be approximately $128.8 billion, with India having a trade surplus of $45.8 billion with the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Ongoing Negotiations - Despite multiple rounds of talks following Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," negotiations remain stalled, particularly due to India's firm stance on protecting its agricultural and dairy sectors [4]. - India is reportedly planning to resume broader trade negotiations with the U.S. in mid-August [4].