Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: On September 22, the main Shanghai nickel contract rose and then fell, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The LME nickel price dropped by 0.46%. The spot market had fair transactions, and the basis premium widened. With supply stagnant and nickel ore prices flat, port inventories increased last week. Nickel pig iron plants' losses narrowed. In September, domestic production increased in both nickel pig iron and electrolytic nickel, while export profits shrank. On the demand side, ternary production decreased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. Considering inventory changes and the fact that the Fed's rate cut has been implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, so the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On September 22, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The spot market had weak transactions, and the basis premium narrowed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory decreased last week. In September, stainless - steel production is set to increase. Terminal demand is weak, but the cost side is supported by stable high - nickel pig iron prices and rising high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Despite the loose fundamentals, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to cost support and limited inventory pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Market**: - On September 22, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 121,400 yuan/ton, 122,580 yuan/ton, 121,730 yuan/ton, and 121,920 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 100 yuan/ton, + 660 yuan/ton, - 190 yuan/ton, and - 240 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The trading volume of the active Shanghai nickel contract was 66,099 lots (+ 3,446), and the open interest was 45,068 lots (- 5,353) [2]. - The LME 3 - month nickel's official spot price was 15,460 dollars/ton, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,270 dollars/ton (- 70 dollars/ton), and the trading volume was 4,024 lots (- 650) [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price (basis) was 1,300 yuan/ton (+ 50) [2]. - The prices of nickel ore from the Philippines with different grades (0.9%, 1.5%, 1.8% CIF) remained unchanged [2]. - The prices of nickel pig iron with different nickel contents (1.5 - 1.7%, 8 - 12%) were stable, while the battery - grade nickel sulfate price increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory**: - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory decreased by 307 tons to 25,536 tons [2]. - The LME nickel registered inventory was 218,454 tons, and the total inventory increased by 456 tons to 228,444 tons [2]. - The SMM China port nickel ore total inventory increased by 180,000 wet tons to 9.71 million wet tons last week [2]. - The SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory decreased, with the total inventory at 3,100 tons (- 600) [2]. - The SMM pure nickel social inventory increased to 41,484 tons [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Market**: - On September 22, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12,725 yuan/ton, 12,910 yuan/ton, 12,940 yuan/ton, and 12,995 yuan/ton respectively, with various changes compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The trading volume of the active Shanghai stainless - steel contract was 138,615 lots (+ 21,690), and the open interest was 130,017 lots (- 1,168) [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The basis (304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price - active contract) was 940 yuan/ton (- 50) [2]. - The prices of different types of stainless - steel products (304, 316L) in Wuxi and Foshan showed some fluctuations [2]. - **Inventory**: - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless - steel inventory decreased by 355 tons to 89,377 tons [2]. - The 300 - series stainless - steel social inventory was 593,400 tons (- 2,900) last week [2]. - The total stainless - steel spot inventory decreased by 13,500 tons to 880,700 tons [2]. Trade and Policy Information - In August 2025, China's unwrought nickel imports were 24,268.4 tons, a 36.11% decrease from the previous month but a 172.34% increase year - on - year. Norway was the largest import source, with imports of 12,020.2 tons (a 391.89% increase from the previous month and a 1745.85% increase year - on - year), and Russia was the second - largest source, with imports of 5,128.53 tons (a 71.10% decrease from the previous month and a 2.17% decrease year - on - year) [2]. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: Short on rallies [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of rebar futures is in the first week of the upward channel, and the main contract of iron ore futures is also in the first week of the upward channel [7][34]. - For rebar, spot - demand customers can consider a step - by - step 50% buy - hedging strategy; for iron ore, spot - demand customers can consider a 50% buy - hedging strategy [11][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The main contract of rebar futures is in the first week of the upward channel. The weekly output is 215 million tons, the apparent consumption is 193 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 172 million tons, and the social inventory is 725 million tons. Spot - demand customers can consider a step - by - step buy - hedging strategy [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - The main contract of rebar futures is in the third week of the downward ladder. According to the model, it has entered the first week of the mid - line upward channel. Spot - demand customers can consider a 50% buy - hedging strategy [10][11]. - **Related Data Situation** - The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [15]. Iron Ore Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The main contract of iron ore futures is in the first week of the upward channel. The global shipment volume last week was 2762 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 2453 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 8996 million tons, and the inventory at major domestic ports was 13842 million tons. Spot - demand customers can consider a long - hedging strategy [34]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the mid - line price of iron ore was in a stable consolidation stage. This week, spot - demand customers can consider a 50% buy - hedging strategy [37]. - **Related Data Situation** - The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weakening fluctuating trend. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time. For arbitrage and options, it's advisable to wait and see [9][15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Futures: The closing prices of most cotton and yarn contracts decreased. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13,610, down 110; the CY09 contract closed at 19,990, down 250. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed, with the trading volume of the CF01 contract increasing by 90,576 and the open interest increasing by 13,028 [3] - Spot: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,224 yuan/ton, down 95; the Cot A price was 78.40 cents/pound, down 0.25. The prices of some other spot products also had corresponding changes [3] - Spreads: In cotton and yarn spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was -5, down 20; the 1 - 5 month spread of yarn was -465, down 85. There were also changes in cross - variety and internal - external spreads [3] Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of September 20, 2025, the cotton planting area in India was 10.964 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The planting areas in some main producing states had different changes. The final area is expected to be around 10.97 - 11 million hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of about 3% [6] - In 2025, China's cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The national expected total output was 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, reaching a new high since 2013 [7] - As of September 16, 2025, the net long position rate of ICE cotton futures funds was -23.31% (a week - on - week increase of 3.73 percentage points) [7] Trading Logic - New cotton is gradually entering the acquisition period, and the market focus is shifting to the opening price of new cotton. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase more than expected, and the acquisition enthusiasm of ginneries is average. It is expected that there will be no large - scale rush to purchase. The acquisition price is expected to be around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be certain selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand in September has slightly improved, but the improvement is limited, so the peak season is expected to be average [8] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will fluctuate mainly, and Zhengzhou cotton will show a slightly weakening fluctuating trend. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The price of the pure cotton yarn market remained stable over the weekend, with general shipment and weak peak - season characteristics, mainly short - term orders. The cash flow of pure cotton spinning enterprises has improved, but inland spinning enterprises are still slightly in the red, so the willingness to increase the operating rate significantly is not high [11] - The shipment of all - cotton grey cloth remained stable with partial weakness. The demand for all - cotton denim was okay, and the order situation this year was better than that of regular cotton cloth. The situation of weaving factories in Shandong was stable, while those in Hubei were under pressure, and some weaving factories reduced the operating rate [11] Options - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton on September 22, 2025, decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601C14000.CZC, CF601P13600.CZC, and CF601P13400.CZC were 12.6%, 11.8%, and 11.9% respectively [13] - Strategy: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7625 for positions and 0.7995 for trading volume. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and CF inter - month spreads, etc., which visually show the price trends and relationships of relevant products [18][20][25]

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250922: Low-level Fluctuation [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Nickel: On September 19, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened low and moved high, with the LME nickel falling 0.01%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium narrowed. With a weak fundamental situation and inventory pressure after the Fed's interest rate cut, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [doc id not provided]. - Stainless Steel: On September 19, the stainless steel main contract fluctuated at a low level, and the spot market trading was weak, with the basis premium narrowing. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [doc id not provided]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: For Shanghai nickel futures on September 19, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 121,500 yuan/ton, 121,920 yuan/ton, 121,340 yuan/ton, and 122,160 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 560 yuan, 620 yuan, 580 yuan, and 680 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel active contract was 62,653 lots (-18,959), and the open interest was 50,421 lots (-4,623) [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, the LME inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [doc id not provided]. - **LME Data**: The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15,320 US dollars, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,270 US dollars, and the trading volume was - 1,108 lots [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of the stainless steel near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on September 19 were 12,725 yuan/ton, 12,860 yuan/ton, 12,910 yuan/ton, and 12,980 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 40 yuan, - 15 yuan, - 15 yuan, and - 10 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the stainless steel active contract was 116,925 lots (-58,909), and the open interest was 131,185 lots (-1,043) [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 593,400 tons (-2,900) [doc id not provided]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Analysis Nickel - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival of nickel ore at ports increased last week, and port inventory accumulated. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, with increased domestic production in September and increased production in Indonesia, and nickel - iron inventory decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profitability expanded [doc id not provided]. - **Demand**: Ternary production decreased; stainless - steel plant production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [doc id not provided]. Stainless Steel - **Supply**: Stainless - steel production increased in September [doc id not provided]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [doc id not provided]. Group 5: Cost Analysis - For stainless steel, the price of high - nickel pig iron remained flat, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [doc id not provided]. Group 6: Industry News - LME is making important adjustments to its Class 5 membership system to simplify and strengthen the brand registration process. From February 20, 2026, only approved brand registration service providers will be eligible to submit metal brand registration applications to INE, making the process for metal producers to become LME - recognized delivery brands more transparent and efficient. Class 1 to Class 4 members can still assist with brand applications as usual, and the current process remains unchanged [doc id not provided].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: International and domestic sugar markets face multiple bearish factors. International factors include a significant narrowing of the sugar production gap in Brazil's 2025/26 season, Indonesia's suspension of sugar imports, and India's approval of sugar exports. Domestic factors include high sugar imports in August, the transition between old and new seasons, and a slowdown in domestic sugar sales. The future trend of domestic sugar prices depends on the performance of the international raw sugar market [3]. - **Pulp**: Overseas broadleaf pulp is strong, driving up domestic broadleaf pulp prices, but the impact on softwood pulp is limited. The demand for pulp is supported by the peak season of finished paper, and the decline in China's pulp imports has alleviated supply pressure. However, the fundamentals lack obvious positive factors, and the upward potential of pulp prices is still uncertain [4]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper has remained stable recently, and the high basis provides some support for the futures price. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward driving force is not clear. The price increase of wood pulp provides some cost support, but the upward space may be limited before the supply further decreases [6]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market is under pressure from the steady listing of cotton in the Southern Hemisphere, the US tariff policy, and the progress of cotton harvesting in the US. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and India's extension of the import tariff exemption provide some support. The domestic cotton market is in a game between tight old - season supply and expected loose new - season supply, and the futures price may be weak [8]. - **Apples**: The futures price has fluctuated recently. The increase in the supply of early - maturing apples and the decline in prices have weakened the support for the futures price. The main logic of the apple market is the expected difference in the new season's harvest, and the futures price is expected to remain within a range [9]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube index has been weakly oscillating. The increase in warehouse receipts has increased the delivery pressure, but the inventory has been gradually depleted, and the spot price has rebounded seasonally. The futures price of the 2601 contract has fluctuated, and investors can consider corresponding trading strategies [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7700 - 7800 and a pressure range of 8400 - 8500. For Jujube 2601, take profit on long positions at high prices, with a support range of 11000 - 11500 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, be cautiously bearish, with a support range of 5430 - 5450 and a pressure range of 5560 - 5580. For Pulp 2511, adopt a range - shorting strategy, with a support range of 4900 - 4950 and a pressure range of 5150 - 5200. For Offset Paper 2601, be bearish on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4350 - 4400. For Cotton 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 14200 - 14300 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Plate Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 8329 | 33 | 0.40 | | Jujube 2601 | 11155 | 155 | 1.41 | | Sugar 2601 | 5540 | 17 | 0.31 | | Pulp 2511 | 4990 | - 72 | - 1.42 | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4224 | 8 | 0.19 | | Cotton 2601 | 13860 | - 140 | - 1.00 | [21] 3.2.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.20 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5830 | - 10 | - 560 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5650 | 0 | - 400 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15283 | - 36 | 278 | [28] 3.3 Third Part: Plate Basis Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only figures related to the basis of each variety are mentioned, including Apple 1 - month basis, Jujube main - contract basis, Sugar main - contract basis, Pulp main - contract basis, and Cotton 1 - month basis [37][40][41]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only figures related to the inter - month spreads of each variety are mentioned, such as Apple 10 - 1 spread, Apple 1 - 5 spread, Jujube 1/5 spread, Jujube 5/9 spread, Sugar 5 - 9 spread, Sugar 9 - 1 spread, Cotton 9 - 1 spread, and Cotton 1 - 5 spread [45][47][50]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8430 | - 231 | 2457 | | Sugar | 10364 | - 265 | - 3138 | | Pulp | 244641 | 0 | - 240079 | | Cotton | 4232 | - 206 | - 2706 | [51] 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - Related Data 3.6.1 Option Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | The price of early - maturing apples has declined steadily, and the difference in acceptance value continues. The short - term futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range | Sell a wide - straddle combination strategy | | Jujube 2601 | New jujube production increase and concentrated listing | Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2601 | Both the domestic and international fundamentals are bearish, and the supply pressure has increased | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Cotton 2601 | The market is in a long - short game, and the short - term futures price fluctuates and consolidates | Sell a wide - straddle combination strategy | | Pulp 2601 | Cost support, but the fundamental upward driving force is not strong | Sell a put option with a strike price of 4900 and a call option with a strike price of 5300 | [52] 3.6.2 Option Data of Each Variety - **Apple Option Data**: Figures related to apple option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [53]. - **Sugar Option Data**: Figures related to sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility are provided [55]. - **Cotton Option Data**: Figures related to cotton option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [62]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apples - **Production Area Weather**: Figures related to the minimum temperature and precipitation in apple - producing areas such as Yantai, Shandong, and Xianyang, Shaanxi, are provided [64]. - **Export Situation**: Figures related to the monthly export volume of apples are provided [69]. - **Inventory Situation**: Figures related to China's weekly apple storage inventory, as well as the weekly storage inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces, are provided [67]. 3.7.2 Jujubes Figures related to the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei provinces, as well as the daily arrival volume of jujubes in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, are provided [70]. 3.7.3 Sugar Figures related to the national industrial sugar inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and the spot - futures difference of sugar are provided [72][74][76]. 3.7.4 Pulp Figures related to the inventory of pulp in four domestic ports, the global producer's wood pulp inventory days, the weekly production of various types of paper, the import volume of broadleaf and softwood pulp, and the market prices of various types of paper are provided [80][82][86]. 3.7.5 Offset Paper Figures related to the capacity utilization rate, weekly production, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption of offset paper are provided [88]. 3.7.6 Cotton Figures related to the retail sales and inventory of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, monthly import volume, clothing retail sales, export volume, and the production and profit data of the textile industry are provided [90][91][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in August 2025 was 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The current production reduction by refineries eases supply pressure, but it may increase next week. The demand side indicates that overall demand is lower than the historical average. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3399 - 3443 [7][8][9]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. There are both positive factors, such as relatively high - level crude oil costs providing some support, and negative factors, like insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand along with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production was 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The current week's sample capacity utilization rate was 36.3734%, a 0.06 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The sample enterprise output was 607,000 tons, a 0.16% month - on - month decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 699,000 tons, a 2.95% month - on - month increase. Refineries have reduced production recently, easing supply pressure, but it may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a 1.71 - percentage - point month - on - month increase; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a 1.69 - percentage - point month - on - month increase; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a 0.50 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a 3.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a 12.97% month - on - month decrease. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On September 19, the Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a 2.88% month - on - month decrease; the in - factory inventory was 653,000 tons, a 4.53% month - on - month decrease; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 240,000 tons, a 20.00% month - on - month decrease. All types of inventory are in a state of continuous destocking [8]. - **Market Trend**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3399 - 3443 [9]. - **Positive Factors**: Relatively high - level crude oil costs provide some support [11]. - **Negative Factors**: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil prices from 2020 - 2025 are presented [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trend of the asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio from 2020 - 2025 is presented [31][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 - 2025 is shown [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 is presented [39][40][41]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volumes from 2020 - 2025 are shown [43][44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 is presented [45][46]. - **Production Volume**: The historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes from 2019 - 2025 are shown [48][49]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 are presented [52][54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 is shown [55][56]. - **Operating Rate**: The historical trend of weekly asphalt operating rates from 2021 - 2025 is presented [58][59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The historical trend of estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025 is shown [60][61]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025 are shown [63][64][66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025 are presented [67][68]. - **In - Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 is shown [70][71]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025 are shown [73][74]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 - 2025 is presented [77][78]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 is shown [79][80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 - 2025 is presented [82][83]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 are shown [85][86][87]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 are presented [89][90][92]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 is shown [94][95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The historical trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 - 2025 are presented [97][100][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [105][106]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices decreased at night, and the EU proposed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including restrictions on Russian LNG and a reduction in the price cap of Russian crude oil. The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3]. - Methanol prices fluctuated at night. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins plants increased, while the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventories rose to a historical high, and the short - term trend of methanol is mainly bearish [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month all decreased, with price drops ranging from - 0.49% to - 1.37%. The night - time decrease was 1.55% [2][3]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest showed different trends. For example, the SC next - month open interest decreased by 30,174, while the WTI near - month open interest increased by 4,990 [2]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The 01 - contract price increased by 0.64%, the 05 - contract price decreased by 0.17%, and the 09 - contract price decreased by 0.55% [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest also had different changes. The open interest of the 01 - contract decreased by 14,496, while that of the 05 - contract increased by 4,777 [2]. Spot Market Crude Oil - International and domestic crude oil spot and refined oil prices decreased [2]. Methanol - The spot price of methanol in the port remained unchanged, while prices in East China, North China, and South China changed with increases or decreases [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Recommended to find buying points for industrial silicon at low prices, with the expected trading range next week between 9,000 - 9,700 yuan/ton; recommended to wait and see for polysilicon, with the expected trading range next week between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [8] - Inter - delivery: Recommended to conduct inter - delivery reverse arbitrage for PS2511/PS2512 at an appropriate time [9] - Hedging: Recommended that upstream industrial silicon plants conduct selling hedging [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term supply and demand of industrial silicon have improved, and the progress of warehouse receipts should be monitored; the sentiment of polysilicon has significantly cooled down, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [7][8] 3. Summary According to Related Contents Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures price center has risen, and the spot price has increased. The futures closed at 9,305 yuan/ton on Friday. The SMM reported that the price of 99 - grade silicon in Xinjiang was 8,800 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 200), and that in Inner Mongolia was 9,050 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 150) [2] - Polysilicon: The futures price first rose and then fell, closing at 52,700 yuan/ton on Friday. The upstream spot price remained firm without price increases, and there was a small amount of restocking from downstream [2] Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory increased slightly. The overall weekly production decreased month - on - month. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 million tons week - on - week, the social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3] - Demand side: The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The short - term weekly production of polysilicon remained high, and there were plans for polysilicon factories to resume production next month. The organic silicon weekly production decreased slightly, and there was an expectation of self - disciplined production cuts in the future. The demand from the aluminum alloy sector was for essential orders, and the export market remained stable [4] Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly production remained high. The estimated production in September was about 127,000 tons. Some factories planned to resume production in October, and the factory inventory decreased [4] - Demand side: After the profit of silicon wafers was restored, the production increased. The short - term inventory of silicon wafers was relatively low, and the export demand for overseas batteries was good. However, the downstream had restocked for three months, and there would be no large - scale restocking in the short term [5][6] Market Charts and Data - The report presents multiple charts and data related to industrial silicon and polysilicon, including prices, inventory, production, and export and import volumes [11][13][14][23][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: Support and pressure coexist, maintaining an interval trading strategy. In the short term, focus on the new - season corn planting cost and wheat - corn price difference; in the medium term, conduct band trading around the new - season corn drivers; in the long term, follow the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost [5][6]. - Pig: Pig prices are expected to stop falling, and short positions on pigs are in the profit - taking range. Near - month contracts are based on supply - demand logic, and far - month contracts focus on the expected difference in sow de - stocking [9][10]. - Egg: The spot price has stopped rising and started to fall. Maintain a short - selling strategy before large - scale concentrated chicken culling. Pay attention to the culling amplitude in the long term [15][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Important Information**: On the 19th, north - south port prices were stable, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices fluctuated, corn futures warehouse receipts decreased, the wheat - corn price difference was positive and expanding, and August 2025 corn imports were at a three - year low. From January to August 2025, cumulative imports decreased by 92.92% year - on - year [5]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: The lower support of the futures price is the new - season corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference. Medium - term: Conduct band trading around new - season corn drivers. Long - term: Follow the import substitution and planting cost pricing logic, focusing on policy orientation [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain an interval trading strategy. For the 2511 and 2601 contracts, the support is at 2150 - 2160. If the support is broken, there may be further downward space; otherwise, it will remain within the interval [6]. Pig - **Important Information**: On the 19th, the national average pig price was 12.6 yuan/kg. It is expected to be stable with a slight increase on the 20th. In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, and the number of sows culled by large - scale pig farms increased by 2.1% month - on - month. Central reserve frozen pork procurement will be carried out on September 23 [9][12]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: Supply exceeds demand, but prices may stop falling after procurement. Medium - term: Pig supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Long - term: Pig production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short positions on pigs are in the profit - taking range. Near - month contracts are based on supply - demand logic, and far - month contracts focus on the expected difference in sow de - stocking. Provide support levels for different contracts [10]. Egg - **Important Information**: On the 19th, egg prices continued to be weak, inventory levels increased, the price of old hens decreased, and in August, the number of laying hens was about 1.365 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 5.98% [15]. - **Market Logic**: Short - to medium - term: Mid - to late - month Mid - Autumn Festival stocking weakens, and prices may fall further if inventory rises. Long - term: Pay attention to the culling amplitude, and the supply pressure may be realized in the fourth quarter [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a short - selling strategy before large - scale concentrated chicken culling. Provide pressure levels for different contracts. Breeding enterprises can also consider selling - hedge opportunities for the 2607 and 2608 contracts [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans/meal, the monthly supply - demand report has limited impact. The market rebounds due to previous full reaction to negative factors and macro - impacts. There is support for prices, but the upside is limited. Domestic soybeans have a loose supply, good demand, and large inventory pressure, with prices expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - For sugar, internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is accumulating. Although recent Brazilian sugar production increases have a negative impact on prices, considering the low price level and the fact that negatives are mostly priced in, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestically, with high - level imports, low domestic sugar inventory, and high sales - to - production ratio, Zheng sugar is likely to have a range - bound movement with a short - term rebound [12]. - For the oilseeds and oils sector, the U.S. biodiesel market has digested some inventory, leading to a decline in the oilseeds and oils market. Malaysian palm oil production and inventory increase is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the inventory - building stage, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, both providing price support [19]. - For corn/corn starch, the U.S. corn futures are falling. Although the U.S. may lower the yield per unit, the overall production is at a new high, with limited short - term rebound space. In the domestic market, the supply is still tight, and the spot price is likely to fall, with the 01 contract expected to have limited downward space [28]. - For live pigs, the overall supply remains stable, but due to the relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices in the future [34]. - For peanuts, some peanuts are gradually coming onto the market, but the supply is limited due to weather. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the prices of related products are stable. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [39]. - For eggs, as the replenishment in each link is coming to an end, the spot price is falling. Based on the current fundamentals, egg prices are expected to face pressure in the short term [45]. - For apples, the early - maturing apple quality is poor, and the price difference between good and bad products is large. The expected low excellent - fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji may lead to a relatively high initial purchase price, but considering the current futures price, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [52]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, new cotton is gradually entering the acquisition stage. The expected increase in Xinjiang cotton production and the general acquisition enthusiasm of ginning mills will bring selling - hedging pressure. The demand improvement in the peak season is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [62]. Summary by Directory Soybeans/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.07% to 1057.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.38% to $289.6 per short - ton [2]. - **Related Information**: As of September 11, the U.S. 2025/2026 soybean export net sales were 923,000 tons, and 2026/2027 net sales were 2,000 tons. For soybean meal, 2024/2025 net sales were 31,000 tons, and 2025/2026 net sales were 151,000 tons. Conab expects Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to increase 3.6% to 177.67 million tons. Oil World expects the global sunflower seed production to be 58.7 million tons. As of September 12, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, with an operating rate of 66.35%. Soybean inventory was 7.332 million tons, and soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Exit the MRM05 spread widening; Options: Wait and see [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: The previous trading day, ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract fell 0.1 (- 0.62%) to 16.13 cents per pound, and London white sugar main contract fell 3.7 (- 0.81%) to $455.6 per ton [8]. - **Important Information**: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar. From January to August, the import volume was 2.6121 million tons. In the 2024/2025 sugar - making season as of August, the import volume was 4.0739 million tons. In the second half of August, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 50.061 million tons, with a sugar production of 3.872 million tons. As of September 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 85, and the sugar quantity was 3.2827 million tons. In August 2025, China's refined sugar production was 454,000 tons [9][10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and Zheng sugar has limited downward space; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [13][14]. Oilseeds and Oils - **External Market**: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main contract changed by - 0.68% to 51.17 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract changed by 0.11% to 4439 ringgit per ton [17]. - **Related Information**: As of September 16, about 36% of the U.S. soybean - growing area was affected by drought. Conab expects Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to increase 3.6%. The 2025 EU and UK rapeseed production is expected to be 21.6 million tons. In August 2025, China imported 340,000 tons of palm oil, 100,000 tons of soybean oil, and 140,000 tons of rapeseed oil [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider buying on dips in the short - term volatile market; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [21][22][23]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: The CBOT corn futures fell, with the December main contract down 0.4% to 424.5 cents per bushel [25]. - **Important Information**: The CBOT corn futures fell on Thursday due to seasonal harvest pressure and a stronger U.S. dollar. As of September 18, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 26.16 days. As of September 17, the corn inventory of 96 major corn - processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.34 million tons. As of September 12, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 729,000 tons. On September 19, the purchase price in the northern port was 2240 yuan per ton [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait for the U.S. December corn to correct from a high level, and buy on dips for the 01 contract; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [29][30][31]. Live Pigs - **Related Information**: Live pig prices are falling, with different price ranges in different regions. As of September 16, the prices of piglets and sows also decreased. On September 18, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.03 points, and the national average pork wholesale price fell 0.9% [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on the near - term contracts; Arbitrage: Do the LH15 reverse spread; Options: Buy long - term call options [35]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: The national average price of peanut kernels is 4.15 yuan per jin. Shandong and Henan oil mills have different purchase prices. The overall oil mill operating rate is low. The sales of peanut oil have slightly improved, and the price of peanut meal is stable. As of September 11, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 65,560 tons, and the peanut oil inventory was 36,760 tons [36][37][38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The 11 and 01 contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and try to go long on the 05 contract after a correction; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [39][40][41]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national mainstream egg prices mostly fell, and the egg market continued to fluctuate. In August, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.365 billion. As of September 11, the weekly egg sales in the representative sales areas were 7303 tons. The average inventory in the production and circulation links decreased [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider shorting at high levels; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [46][47]. Apples - **Important Information**: As of September 10, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 209,100 tons. In July 2025, the apple export volume was 53,600 tons, and the import volume was 17,700 tons. The price of early - maturing apples varies by region, and the profit of apple storage merchants in Qixia has decreased [49][50][51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Apples are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there will be selling - hedging pressure after the new apples are on the market; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [55][56][57]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: The previous trading day, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.26 (0.39%) to 66.92 cents per pound [59]. - **Important Information**: As of September 13, the average temperature and rainfall in the U.S. cotton - growing areas decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has little change, and the cotton spot trading is cold. The sales and transaction basis of cotton are in a certain range [60][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zheng cotton is expected to be slightly weak, suggesting selective trading; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [63][64][65].