| 贵金属日评20251119: ADP周度新增就业人数为负支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-11-18 | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-12 | 收盘价 | -27.24 | 918. 52 | 945. 76 | -10. 94 | 929. 46 | | | | | 成交量 | 260377.00 | -165,869.00 | 236915.00 | 402784.00 | -23, 462. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 101723.00 | 90872. 00 | 124540.00 | -10,851.00 | -33, 668. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 90426. 00 | 90426. 00 | 89616.00 | 0. 00 | 810. 00 | 上海黄金 | ...

研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 上周在伦敦黄金反弹至 4245 美元/盎司和伦敦白银接近历史记录之后，美联 储官员表态鹰派抑制了美联储降息预期，美元汇率获得提振而金银价格随之回落； 我们判断短期内美联储放缓降息步伐甚至暂停降息、中美贸易形势边际缓和等利 空因素，与地缘政治风险上升和国际贸易货币体系加速重组等利多因素相平衡， 伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的波动区间内运行更长时间以积累再次突 破动能，目前阶段不宜过度追涨杀跌。但在中期维度，环球央行宽松、地缘政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to a continuous pullback in precious metals, but a bottom has been established, awaiting new upward catalysts [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Overall volatility in precious metals has significantly decreased, with London silver spot prices returning to a premium over Comex futures, indicating ongoing tightness in the physical market [1] - Precious metals are currently in a bottom consolidation phase, but the main downtrend has passed, and the overall macro framework remains favorable for long positions [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - In the medium to long term, the price center of gold is expected to rise, and investors may consider participating in future pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Attention is drawn to direct investments in physical gold, tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800), and gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver continued to decline under pressure during the session, but the downward momentum weakened, and the London gold and silver prices formed strong support at the integer level [3]. - The market's risk - aversion sentiment weakened marginally after the US - Switzerland tariff agreement, and profit - taking by long - positions intensified the pressure on the high - level correction of gold prices. FOMC officials' hawkish signals reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut to below 50%, strengthening the US dollar and pressuring precious metals [3]. - In the short term, if the US stock market continues to decline, liquidity risks may increase the correction pressure on precious metals. The Fed's more hawkish stance than expected and the rise in US Treasury yields pose potential negatives to gold prices. - In the long term, the increasing US debt pressure and weakening investor confidence in the US dollar make gold attractive. Central bank gold purchases may push up the gold price center. The recommended trading ranges are 900 - 950 yuan/gram for the Shanghai gold 2512 contract and 11500 - 12300 yuan/kg for the Shanghai silver 2512 contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - **Closing Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 929.46 yuan/gram, down 23.74 yuan; the Shanghai silver main contract was 11933 yuan/kg, down 418 yuan [3]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 101723 lots, down 11874 lots; the Shanghai silver main contract was 311515 lots, up 101189 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 108348 lots, down 7750 lots; the Shanghai silver was 105453 lots, down 16646 lots [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 90426 kg (unchanged); the silver was 569355 kg, down 7539 kg [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 931.45 yuan/gram, down 27.35 yuan; the silver spot price was 11977 yuan/kg, down 441 yuan [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1.99 yuan/gram, down 3.61 yuan; the Shanghai silver main contract was 44 yuan/kg, down 23 yuan [3]. 3.3. Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 1044 tons, down 4.93 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15218.42 tons, up 45.14 tons [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net position was 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver was 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons and 54.83 tons respectively. The annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the global annual demand was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. 3.4. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 27.6%, down 2.74%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.22%, up 0.1% [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 26.76%, up 2%. 3.5. Industry News - The US and Switzerland have "basically" reached a trade agreement. US tariffs on Swiss goods will drop from 39% to 15%, and Switzerland will invest $200 billion in the US [3]. - The US will release the Q3 GDP revised value on November 26, along with October personal income, expenditure, and PCE index at 10:00 on the same day. There are also scheduled releases of September non - farm payroll and real wage data, but the release of October CPI data is uncertain [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in December is 44.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 55.6%. By January next year, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 48.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 16.7% [3].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月17日16时33分 一、黄金 报告导读： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 4084.40 | -90.10 | -2.16% | 76.60 | 1.91% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 4071.10 | -124.55 | -2.97% | 77.00 | 1.93% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 929.46 | -23.74 | -2.49% | -6.52 | -0.70% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 930.22 | -17.76 | -1.87% | -2.80 | -0.30% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -1.54 | 2.79 | -65% | -16.85 | -110% | | | 沪金主力基差 ...

| 贵金属日评20251117: 多位美联储官员放鹰使贵金属价格承压 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-10 | 收盘价 | 953. 20 | 17.22 | 961. 22 | 935. 98 | -8. 02 | | | | | 成交量 | 307687.00 | 307850.00 | 320688.00 | -163.00 | -13,001.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 113597.00 | 124239.00 | 136657.00 | -23, 060. 00 | -10. 642. 00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 90426.00 | 89616.00 | 0. 00 | 810. 00 | 90426.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 | 947. ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Weekly Precious Metals Report by Changjiang Futures, dated November 17, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The end of the US government shutdown and the mitigation of liquidity shocks, along with hawkish statements from multiple Fed officials, have led to a strong - oscillating trend in precious metal prices. The market is divided on whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, and the expected end - point of this round of rate cuts has been lowered. Amid concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported in the medium - term but are currently in a short - term adjustment phase [6][9][11] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review - US government shutdown ended and liquidity shock eased. Fed officials made hawkish statements. The price of US gold was in a strong - oscillating state, closing at $4084 per ounce last Friday, up 1.9% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4150, and the lower support level is $3980. The price of US silver also showed a strong - oscillating trend, with a weekly increase of 4.5%, closing at $50.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $49, and the upper resistance level is $51.5 [6][9] 4.2 Weekly Viewpoint - The end of the US government shutdown and hawkish Fed statements have reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut. The market is divided on the December rate cut, and the expected end - point of rate cuts has been lowered. With a slowdown in the US employment situation and concerns about the US economy and Fed independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported in the medium - term but are in short - term adjustment. Strategy advice is to trade cautiously within a range, with the reference operating range for SHFE gold contract 12 being 910 - 970 and for SHFE silver contract 12 being 11500 - 12400 [11][13] 4.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data and trends of various overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate, inflation expectation, US Treasury yield spread, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures price [15][17][21] 4.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the eurozone in November was 25, compared with the previous value of 22.7 [28] 4.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The US House of Representatives passed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. There are internal disagreements within the Fed on interest rate cuts, and it is uncertain whether there will be a rate cut in December [29] 4.6 Inventory - This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10,789.81 kg to 1,162,728.30 kg, while SHFE gold inventory increased by 810 kg to 90,426 kg. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 138,277.37 kg to 14,795,008.84 kg, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 46,158 kg to 576,894 kg [13][33] 4.7 Fund Holdings - This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13][38] 4.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday, November 20th, at 21:30, important economic indicators to watch include the seasonally - adjusted change in US non - farm payrolls for September and the US unemployment rate for September [40]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 贵金属冲高回落，短期建议观望 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-17 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 ◆ 上周贵金属冲高回落，但周线仍整体收涨。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）上半 周，美国政府即将结束停摆，市场预期美国财政部即将释放流动性，同时美联储12月 降息预期提升和美联储独立性继续遭到削弱等，美元指数走弱，提振贵金属价格再度 强势上涨；且白银受益于流动性和供应偏紧(国内库存走低+国内TD升水期货)利好， 表现远强于黄金，沪银期货价格创历史新高。（2）后随着美国政府停摆结束落地， 市场避险需求有所削弱，加上在美国关键经济数据持续缺失背景下，多位美联储官员 发表偏鹰派言论，市场预测美联储12月降息概率低于50%，美债收益率回升，引发投 资者恐慌，美股、比特币等风险资产持续下挫；在流动性风险下，贵金属亦遭到同步 抛售，致使金银价格上周五夜盘大幅下挫，且白银因前期涨幅较大，获利了结压力更 大，因此跌幅更甚。 ◆ 后市展望：我们认为流动性风险持续的时间或相对有限，因此贵金属价格在经历上 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks collectively declined following a significant drop in spot gold prices, which fell nearly $180 from a historical high of $4,211, marking the largest single-day decline in recent times [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Gold International (02099) fell by 4.03%, closing at HKD 135.8 [1] - Shandong Gold (01787) decreased by 3.46%, closing at HKD 33.52 [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) dropped by 2.96%, closing at HKD 29.54 [1] - Zijin Mining International (02259) declined by 2.54%, closing at HKD 138 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The market is adjusting its optimistic expectations for a December interest rate cut following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, leading to profit-taking across risk assets, including gold and cryptocurrencies [1] - Dongwu Securities suggests that despite the current macroeconomic framework, there remains a medium-term bullish outlook for precious metals, indicating that the recent price correction may present a buying opportunity [1] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures believes that the recent rebound in gold and silver prices has ended, and a new adjustment phase is expected, with attention on the upcoming non-farm payroll data [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Multiple Fed officials' hawkish remarks and the end of the US government shutdown may lead to short - term adjustments in precious metal prices, but long - term factors such as global debt expansion, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 961.22, with a change of 15.46 compared to the previous day and 39.96 compared to the previous week; COMEX gold futures' closing price was 4174.50, with a change of - 26.90 compared to the previous day and 184.10 compared to the previous week; London gold spot price was 3968.20, with a change of 227.45 compared to the previous day and 58.90 compared to the previous week [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 12588.00, with a change of 515.00 compared to the previous day and 1104.00 compared to the previous week; COMEX silver futures' closing price was 52.23, with a change of 4.37 compared to the previous day and - 1.00 compared to the previous week; London silver spot price was 53.87, with a change of 2.34 compared to the previous day and 6.26 compared to the previous week [1] - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 76.36, with a change of - 3.86 compared to the previous day and - 1.98 compared to the previous week; the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 83.35, with a change of - 2.39 compared to the previous day and - 5.46 compared to the previous week [1] 3.2 Important Information - The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown, and it is estimated that the shutdown caused 60,000 job losses; multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks before the release of important economic data [1] 3.3 Multi - Empty Logic - Short - term: Multiple Fed officials' remarks reduced the probability of a December rate cut to around 45%, and the end of the government shutdown is expected to lead to the release of a large amount of economic data, which may cause short - term adjustments in precious metal prices [1] - Long - term: Global debt expansion, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold previous long positions; for London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 870 - 890 and the resistance level around 960 - 1000; for London silver, pay attention to the support level around 38 - 45 and the resistance level around 55 - 60; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9500 - 10500 and the resistance level around 12400 - 13000 [1]