联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 20 元至 6020 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6035 元/吨 （-45），华南瓶片价格 6080 元/吨（-50）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 5347 手至 5.08 万手，空头持仓减少 6284 手至 5.46 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 33.36 万吨，环比持平。国内聚酯瓶 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 片产能利用率周均值为 73.05%，环比持平；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5445 元，环比+261 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-177 元/吨，环比-59 元/吨。 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 万吨，较上月增加 0.99 万吨。2025 年累计 出口量 586.5 万吨。 3、美乌领导人会晤未能达成实质性突破，俄乌双方冲突仍在进行，地缘不稳推升供 | | 工 | 瓶片 | 震荡 | 应风险，国际油价上涨。NYMEX 原油期货 02 合约 58.08 涨 1.34 美元/桶 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals are experiencing significant volatility, with silver undergoing substantial adjustments due to profit-taking and market sentiment shifts, despite long-term supportive factors such as central bank gold purchases and weakening dollar credibility [2][18]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals are facing increased volatility, particularly silver, which has seen a significant adjustment [2][18]. - The U.S. November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, below the anticipated 3% [2][18]. - The overall downward trend in CPI provides room for potential interest rate cuts, supporting precious metal prices [2][18]. - Recent profit-taking and margin adjustments by exchanges have led to sharp fluctuations in precious metal prices, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [2][18]. Group 2: Stock Indices - The U.S. three major indices declined, with the oil and petrochemical sectors leading gains while the non-ferrous metals sector lagged [3][11]. - The market turnover reached 2.16 trillion yuan, with financing balances decreasing by 2.037 billion yuan to 25,264.62 billion yuan [3][11]. - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD is accelerating, with the offshore RMB exchange rate briefly surpassing the 7.0 mark, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [3][11]. - The anticipated return of overseas capital and the revaluation of Chinese assets are supported by improved policies and funding expansion [3][11]. Group 3: Copper - Night trading saw copper prices drop by 2.8% due to profit-taking, despite ongoing tight supply conditions for concentrates [4][19]. - The smelting profit margins are at breakeven, with overall smelting output continuing to grow [4][19]. - Market sentiment is influencing short-term copper prices, with a focus on changes in the dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [4][19]. Group 4: Industry News - Several lithium iron phosphate companies announced maintenance and production cuts scheduled for January 2026, with reductions ranging from 35% to 50% [8].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - Multiple strong metal varieties experienced a sharp decline, with palladium and platinum hitting the limit down, and lithium carbonate also reaching the limit down [1] - NYMEX palladium dropped over 16%, platinum fell over 14%, COMEX gold decreased over 4%, and COMEX silver dropped over 7% [2] - The rapid decline in precious metals followed a period of short-term surges, attributed to technical indicator adjustments, profit-taking by investors, and increased margin requirements by exchanges [4] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Shanghai silver saw a peak increase of over 10%, reaching nearly 20,000 yuan/kg, with an annual increase exceeding 140% [5] - Shanghai gold reached new highs, surpassing 1,000 yuan/g, with an annual increase of over 60% [5] - The investment demand for precious metals remains strong, with global central bank gold purchases expected to exceed 1,000 tons for the fourth consecutive year [6] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand is expected to grow, with projections indicating that global photovoltaic silver usage will exceed 5,200 tons by 2025 [6] - Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to 715 tons, the lowest level since July 2016, indicating tight supply [6] - Precious metals like silver and platinum have been at historically low prices, contributing to their recent price increases [6] Group 4: Energy Metals Market Overview - Lithium carbonate futures reached a peak of 130,000 yuan/ton before closing below 120,000 yuan/ton, marking a significant increase from under 60,000 yuan/ton earlier in the year [9] - Cobalt prices have risen significantly, reaching 443,500 yuan/ton, with an annual increase exceeding 160% [9] - The surge in energy metal prices is driven by a rebound from historical lows and an explosion in downstream energy storage demand [9][10] Group 5: Supply Constraints in Energy Metals - New regulations on lithium mining in China are expected to tighten supply, with significant reductions in mining rights in key regions [10] - Cobalt imports have declined due to new export quota policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to low domestic inventory levels [10] Group 6: Industrial Metals Price Trends - Tungsten prices have surged dramatically, with prices increasing from 210,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 680,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 220% [15] - Copper prices have reached historical highs, with Shanghai copper futures surpassing 100,000 yuan/ton [16] - The pricing logic for copper has shifted, with increasing demand driven by the transition to electric-driven energy systems [16] Group 7: Key Stocks in Precious and Energy Metals - Key stocks in precious metals include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, with significant annual increases [6][8] - Energy metal stocks include Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Jiangte Electric, reflecting the strong performance in the sector [10][11] - Industrial metal stocks such as Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, and Jiangxi Copper have also shown notable price increases [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC forecasts global economic growth to be 2.8% in 2025 and slightly slow to 2.7% in 2026, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation, but supported by AI investments and fiscal expansions from major economies [1] Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - HSBC predicts global economic growth rates of 2.8% for 2025 and 2.7% for 2026, indicating a slight slowdown [1] - Factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and slowing labor growth are expected to pressure growth potential [1] - Structural deployment in AI infrastructure and fiscal expansions from major countries may offset some negative factors [1] Group 2: Trade Projections - Global goods and services trade export growth is expected to accelerate to 3.8% in 2025 from 3.0% in 2024, but will slow to 2.0% in 2026 due to various factors including the effects of previous "export rush" [2] - Despite reduced tariff uncertainties, U.S. personal consumption expenditure growth is expected to moderate, impacting trade growth [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Conditions - HSBC anticipates that U.S. core inflation will remain sticky in 2026 due to supply-side shocks from tariffs and resilient service demand driven by high-income consumers [2] - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain some resilience in the first half of 2026 due to strong AI-related capital expenditures and the end of government shutdowns [2] - HSBC believes the Federal Reserve will likely maintain the current federal funds rate target range in 2026 without further rate cuts [2] Group 4: Asian Economic Outlook - After strong growth in 2025, Asian export growth is expected to slow in 2026 but will still outperform the global average [3] - Lower inflation in some emerging economies in Asia may allow for continued implementation of accommodative monetary policies [3] - Countries like China are expected to adopt more proactive fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have experienced significant fluctuations, and risks have increased substantially [3][5] - The market sentiment has shifted, with有色金属 experiencing a sharp decline in the afternoon [4] - The high - level uncertainty of copper prices has risen significantly, and the risks in the later period are relatively high [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - During the Christmas holiday in the external market this week, trading was light, and market volatility increased. Precious metals speculation in the morning session drove the collective strength of non - ferrous metals, but the market declined in the afternoon. Shanghai copper and LME copper rose, and domestic spot copper also increased [4] - LME copper reached a new historical high, trading around $12,570. Shanghai copper reached a new high in the morning and then declined in the afternoon, closing slightly higher at 98,860. Trading volume increased while positions decreased, indicating a large divergence in market sentiment [5] Price and Basis - The closing price of Shanghai copper was 98,860, and the spot price was 101,290. The spot was at a premium of 2,430 points over futures. The spot basis was at a discount of - 330 points, and spot trading was extremely poor. The LME spot premium widened to $20, and the external market spot demand was good [4] - The RMB exchange rate rose this week, and the Yangshan copper premium increased to $52.5, indicating an improvement in domestic spot demand. The LME - Shanghai ratio of copper prices remained at 7.87, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased significantly to 1,021 points, with the external market ratio much higher than the domestic market [4] Inventory - This week, the US copper inventory continued to rise significantly to a new high, the LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and the Shanghai copper inventory increased. The spot demand was average [4] Production - In November, domestic copper production increased by 11.9% year - on - year [5] Demand and Premium - Domestic and LME copper demand was not good, but the buying power of US copper was extremely strong, which was the main factor driving up copper prices. Recently, the US copper inventory has continued to rise. The US accelerated inventory accumulation, causing tension in the spot market, and the premium of US copper over LME copper decreased to around $155 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening US dollar index, although future movements in the RMB exchange rate remain uncertain due to multiple interwoven factors [1][2]. Group 1: External Environment - The upcoming transition in leadership at the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Powell's term ending next year, could signal changes in US monetary policy direction, impacting the RMB/USD exchange rate [1]. - The US is facing challenges in balancing inflation and employment, which may constrain the likelihood of significant interest rate cuts in the near future, with expectations of only two rate cuts next year [1]. - The unpredictable nature of the Trump administration's foreign policy adds to market uncertainty, potentially affecting the foreign exchange market [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent significant decline in the US dollar index suggests a potential for future recovery, which could influence the RMB/USD exchange rate in the medium to long term [1]. - Currently, the interest rate differential between Chinese and US government bonds remains inverted by approximately 230 basis points, indicating a stronger incentive for capital to flow towards the US if the RMB appreciation trend slows [2]. - The People's Bank of China has emphasized the need to "prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations," indicating that both appreciation and depreciation risks are being monitored, and measures may be taken if the RMB appreciates too quickly [2]. Group 3: Expert Recommendations - Experts advise that enterprises and financial institutions should avoid blindly following market trends and should adopt a risk-neutral approach to manage exchange rate risks effectively [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, highlighting a significant drop in their values and the potential risks associated with these changes [2][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 29, spot silver experienced a sharp decline of nearly 5% after initially rising close to 6%, while spot gold fell below the $4500 mark, dropping over 1% during the trading session [2]. - As of the latest update, spot gold was priced at $4466.66, reflecting a decrease of 1.44% from the previous day [3]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also decreased, with the price of Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry quoted at ¥1406 per gram, down from ¥1412 per gram [5]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts warn that precious metal prices are at a precarious point, with potential for a significant correction. Tony Sycamore, a market analyst, describes the silver market as experiencing a "generational bubble" [10]. - The rise in precious metal prices has been attributed to market expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, alongside strong buying from central banks and private investors [10]. - Forecasts suggest that as enthusiasm for gold wanes, silver prices may drop to approximately $42 per ounce by the end of next year [10].

全球市场——受美联储降息预期推动，股市有望在年末创下纪录。 来源：滚动播报 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals, particularly silver and gold, is attributed to geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and low market liquidity, leading to significant price fluctuations and potential investment opportunities [6][7]. Group 1: Silver Market - On December 29, spot silver prices initially surged by 5.85% to exceed $83, but later experienced a sharp decline, trading at $80.33 per ounce by 11:58 AM [1]. - The silver price has increased approximately 180% this year, driven by heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical risks and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [7]. - Concerns over a supply shortage in the silver market are growing, with the market facing a structural deficit for five consecutive years, leading to rapidly depleting physical inventories [7]. Group 2: Gold Market - Concurrently, spot gold prices saw a decline, dipping below $4480 before recovering to $4516.17 per ounce by 11:58 AM [3]. - The gold market has also experienced significant price movements, with recent trends indicating a strong correlation with geopolitical tensions and market liquidity conditions [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The precious metals market witnessed a broad rally on December 26, with COMEX silver futures soaring over 11% and spot silver rising more than 10%, alongside similar increases in palladium and platinum [5]. - UBS has noted that the short-term risks in precious metal trading have increased, particularly as gold prices reach new highs, which may lead to profit-taking by short-term investors [7]. - To mitigate market risks, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued notifications on December 26 to encourage risk control and outlined trading margin requirements and price limits for the upcoming New Year period [7].