25Q3 营收和盈利同比增长明显，存储和高可靠领域需求向好 ——上海复旦（1385.HK）2025 年三季报业绩点评 要点 事件：公司前三季度实现营收 30.24 亿人民币，同比增长 12.7%；25Q3 实现 营收 11.86 亿人民币，同比增长 33.28%；Q3 营收增长主要系非挥发性存储 芯片、智能电表芯片和 FPGA 及其他芯片业务的销售带动，Q3 收入分别同比 增长 44%/42%/34%，而安全与识别芯片 Q3 营收同比增长 16%。利润端， 前三季度产品综合毛利率 58.47%，同比增长 3.42pct；25Q3 产品综合毛利 率 61.06%，同比增长 8.91pct，系营收增长叠加产品结构优化。前三季度归 母净利润 3.30 亿人民币，同比下降 22.69%，系受到政府补助专项验收和增 值税加计抵减额下降、存储跌价准备增加、无形资产计提减值等的影响。其中 25Q3 归母净利润 1.37 亿人民币，同比增长 72.69%，对应归母净利率 12%。 非挥发性存储器 Q3 营收回暖，公司积极开拓民品应用领域和合作：1）安全 与识别芯片业务 25Q3 实现收入 2.39 亿元，同比增长 16%。金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that Shanghai Fudan (01385) is experiencing a recovery in high-reliability sectors and storage demand, while actively expanding into emerging fields such as automotive and industrial applications. However, due to intense market competition and the impact of asset impairment losses in 2025, the profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward for 2025 and 2026, while showing an increase for 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 3.024 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [2] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.186 billion RMB, with a significant year-on-year increase of 33.28% [2] - The revenue growth in Q3 was primarily driven by sales of non-volatile storage chips, smart meter chips, and FPGA and other chip businesses, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 42%, and 34% [2] Group 2: Profitability Metrics - The overall gross profit margin for products in the first three quarters was 58.47%, an increase of 3.42 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin for products reached 61.06%, reflecting an increase of 8.91 percentage points, attributed to revenue growth and product structure optimization [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 330 million RMB, a decline of 22.69%, influenced by government subsidy inspections, reduced VAT deductions, increased storage impairment provisions, and intangible asset impairment [2] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 72.69%, with a corresponding net profit margin of 12% [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 530 million RMB, 976 million RMB, and 1.191 billion RMB, reflecting changes of -26.4%, -1.1%, and +7.2% respectively compared to previous predictions [1] - The expected year-on-year growth rates for net profit in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are -7%, +84%, and +22% respectively [1] - The current closing price is 39.5 HKD, corresponding to a forecasted P/E ratio of 56x for 2025 and 30x for 2026, with a maintained "buy" rating due to accelerated domestic substitution of FPGA chips and recovery in storage demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates a recovery in demand for high-reliability and storage sectors for Shanghai Fudan (01385), while also highlighting the company's expansion into emerging fields such as automotive and industrial applications. However, due to intense market competition and asset impairment losses, profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward for 2025 and 2026, while showing an increase for 2027. The current stock price suggests a "buy" rating based on the anticipated recovery in memory business and accelerated domestic substitution of FPGA chips [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 3.024 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.7%. In Q3 2025, revenue reached 1.186 billion RMB, with a significant year-on-year increase of 33.28%. The growth in Q3 revenue was primarily driven by sales of non-volatile memory chips, smart meter chips, and FPGA and other chip businesses, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 42%, and 34% [2]. - The overall gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 58.47%, an increase of 3.42 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 61.06%, up by 8.91 percentage points, attributed to revenue growth and product mix optimization [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 330 million RMB, a decline of 22.69%, influenced by government subsidy verification, a decrease in VAT deductions, increased provisions for storage price declines, and impairment of intangible assets. In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 72.69%, with a corresponding net profit margin of 12% [2]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in the storage business and the acceleration of domestic substitution for FPGA chips, which are expected to positively impact the company's future performance. The adjusted profit forecasts reflect a cautious outlook due to competitive pressures and asset impairment issues, but the long-term growth potential remains strong [1].

Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher on November 6, with significant gains in the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index by the end of the trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76 points, up 0.97%, with a trading volume of approximately 930.3 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42 points, up 1.73%, with a trading volume of about 112.5 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index closed at 3224.62 points, up 1.84%, with a trading volume of around 50.5 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, opening high and maintaining gains throughout the day; the phosphate chemical sector also saw significant increases before stabilizing [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced upward movement, driven by multiple aluminum stocks hitting the daily limit; other sectors such as chemical fiber, PVDF concept, CPO concept, storage chips, components, EDA concept, and lithium mining also recorded notable gains [1] - Conversely, sectors that had previously seen substantial gains, such as Hainan, tourism, duty-free shops, and media entertainment, faced significant adjustments [1] Institutional Insights - According to institutional views, the market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by policies, liquidity, and valuation factors; sectors like semiconductors, consumer electronics, artificial intelligence, robotics, and low-altitude economy are highlighted for investment opportunities [2] - Another perspective suggests that while favorable factors slightly outweigh the pressures, the market may remain in a sideways trend, with a focus on structural opportunities in technology sectors like AI and semiconductors [2] - The overall sentiment indicates a "slow bull" market, with structural opportunities likely to dominate the market in November [3] Index Changes - MSCI announced changes to its November index, adding 26 stocks to the MSCI China Index and removing 20 stocks, including notable companies like Ganfeng Lithium and others [4] Innovations Recognition - TIME magazine recognized several Chinese tech companies, including Yushu Technology and DeepSeek, in its list of "Best Inventions of 2025," highlighting the innovation landscape in China [5]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.97% to 4007.76 points, with a total turnover of 930.3 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.73% to 13452.42 points, with a turnover of 1125 billion yuan [3] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.84%, closing at 3224.62 points [3] - The overall market saw over 2800 stocks increase, with a total trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [1][2] Sector Highlights - The AI-related sectors, including computing power, transportation capacity, storage capacity, and electricity, experienced significant gains, driving technology stocks higher [1] - The semiconductor sector was particularly strong, with leading companies like Haiguang Information and Cambrian Technology seeing substantial increases, contributing to a more than 3% rise in the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index [1] - The phosphorus chemical sector also performed well, with companies like Qingshuiyuan and Chengxing Co. hitting the daily limit, supported by a 21.42% year-on-year increase in net profit for the sector in the first three quarters, totaling 3.005 billion yuan [2] Investment Trends - Main funds focused on semiconductor, components, and automotive parts sectors, with notable net inflows into stocks like Shenghong Technology and Haiguang Information [4] - Analysts suggest that while there are doubts about the sustainability of the AI boom, the long-term growth trajectory for technology remains a key area for investment [2][10] Industry Developments - A significant restructuring plan for polysilicon companies is in discussion, aiming to establish a fund of approximately 70 billion yuan to facilitate acquisitions [5] - The global first industrial 5G international standard has been officially released, marking a significant advancement in the integration of 5G technology in industrial applications [7]

Group 1: Northern Huachuang (002371) - The company achieved a revenue of 27.301 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.130 billion yuan, up 14.83% year-on-year [5][6] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 11.160 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.63%, with a net profit of 1.922 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.60% [5][6] - The company focuses on the semiconductor equipment sector, with over 80% of its revenue coming from this area, benefiting from the acceleration of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry and the expansion of downstream wafer fabs [6][7] - Inventory increased significantly to 30.199 billion yuan, up 30.01% year-on-year, indicating proactive stocking to meet strong market demand and to build a localized, secure supply chain [7] - R&D expenses reached 3.285 billion yuan, a 48.40% increase year-on-year, with a R&D expense ratio of 12.03%, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation and product competitiveness [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of downstream wafer fab capacities and the domestic substitution trend, with projected revenues of 39.283 billion yuan, 49.665 billion yuan, and 61.156 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9] Group 2: Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317) - The company reported a revenue of 1.889 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a slight decrease of 1.01% year-on-year, but a net profit of 251 million yuan, up 68.40% year-on-year [11][12] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 589 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.35%, with a net profit of 63 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.10% [11] - The R&D pipeline is progressing well, with key products like Anglavi tablets and RAY1225 showing promising clinical advancements, indicating strong potential for market expansion [12] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.841 billion yuan, 3.336 billion yuan, and 3.917 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 307 million yuan, 366 million yuan, and 481 million yuan [13]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector, is experiencing a significant rebound driven by the wave of domestic substitution, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF (520980) rising over 2% and achieving a trading volume exceeding 530 million yuan [1] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513260), which has the lowest management fee in its category, also increased by over 1.5%, with a trading volume surpassing 350 million yuan and a recent fund inflow of over 350 million yuan in the past 20 days [3] - The semiconductor sector is witnessing unexpected price increases, with SK Hynix raising the price of HBM4 supplied to NVIDIA by 50% compared to the previous generation [5] Group 2 - Major stocks in the Hong Kong technology sector are showing positive performance, with notable increases in share prices for companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor (over 6%), SMIC (over 5%), Alibaba (over 3%), and Tencent (over 2%) [5] - Recent data indicates that southbound funds have been flowing into leading Hong Kong technology stocks, with Xiaomi Group-W and Meituan-W among the top ten net purchases in the past week [7] - The Hong Kong technology sector is becoming a core carrier of the AI wave, with domestic AI application giants primarily listed in Hong Kong, enhancing their scarcity and global competitiveness [9] Group 3 - The valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is currently low compared to historical levels, particularly in the technology sector, providing significant potential for upward adjustment [10] - The market is expected to attract substantial incremental capital, with foreign capital showing signs of stabilization and domestic capital inflows projected to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan in the coming year [12] - The scarcity of quality assets in the Hong Kong market, particularly in internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, is expected to support the ongoing bullish trend [13]

Core Insights - The domestic chip sector is experiencing a strong rally, particularly in the AI industry chain, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) showing a price increase of 2.21% and recovering the 60-day moving average, which is seen as a significant bullish signal [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) has seen a net inflow of funds totaling 23.34 million yuan over the past four days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Key constituent stocks such as Cambricon Technologies surged over 9%, while other companies like Yuntian Lifei and Obsidian Technology rose by more than 4% [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The AI sector is transitioning from a narrative phase to a practical implementation phase, with increasing commercial applications and a growing willingness among enterprises to invest in AI solutions [3] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for AI commercialization, marking a shift from AI as a supportive tool to becoming a core productivity driver [3] Group 3: Policy Environment - The importance of domestic substitution in the AI industry is highlighted by the new five-year plan, which emphasizes the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative to empower various industries [3] - The Chinese government has expressed a strong commitment to advancing towards an intelligent economy and society by 2035, showcasing a national strategy to enhance AI capabilities [3] Group 4: Investment Highlights - The ETF is positioned to benefit from top-level policies that are expected to ignite growth in the AI sector, with a focus on companies that are leaders in their respective segments [4] - The ETF offers a low-threshold investment opportunity with a 20% price fluctuation limit, enhancing its efficiency during market surges [4] - The top ten holdings in the ETF account for over 70% of its weight, with the semiconductor sector representing more than half of the portfolio, indicating a concentrated and aggressive investment strategy [4]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a significant rebound on November 6, with all three major indices rising, particularly in the technology growth sector, where the Sci-Tech 50 Index surged by 3.74% and the Sci-Tech Chip Index increased by nearly 5% [1] - The semiconductor sector, especially stocks like Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and SMIC, showed strong performance, with over 80% of the component stocks in the Sci-Tech 50 ETF in the green [1] - Analysts suggest focusing on two main areas: the semiconductor supply chain benefiting from eased export restrictions and the commercialization of AI applications driven by technological breakthroughs [1] Industry Summary - The Sci-Tech 50 ETF closely tracks the Sci-Tech 50 Index, consisting of 50 high market-cap and liquid securities from the Sci-Tech board, with the semiconductor sector making up 65.5% of the index [2] - The index's top three sectors also include medical devices (5.3%) and photovoltaic equipment (4.6%), aligning well with the development of domestic chips, artificial intelligence, and robotics [2]

Group 1 - Semiconductor stocks surged, with Cambrian and Haiguang Information rising over 7%, and various semiconductor ETFs increasing by more than 4% [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETFs and industry ETFs track the CSI semiconductor industry index, with the top three sectors covering semiconductor equipment, materials, and integrated circuit design, accounting for over 80% [1] - The core components of the semiconductor ETFs include leading equipment manufacturers and AI chip design leaders, forming a complete ecosystem covering upstream equipment, midstream manufacturing, and downstream design [1] Group 2 - AMD's CEO revealed that the Instinct MI308 AI chip has received export approval to China, significantly impacting the chip sector, particularly benefiting Haiguang Information [2] - There is a notable increase in domestic chip replacement logic, driven by data center construction and domestic chip developments [2] - SK Hynix announced successful negotiations with NVIDIA regarding HBM4 supply, with prices expected to be over 50% higher than current HBM3E prices [2] Group 3 - Recent trends indicate a continuous rise in memory prices, with significant increases noted since September [3][4] - The price of DDR4 8G memory modules rose from below 90 yuan in August to between 100 and 130 yuan within a month, reflecting strong demand driven by AI applications [4] - The global semiconductor equipment sales reached $33.1 billion in Q2 2025, a 23% year-on-year increase, indicating ongoing expansion in the semiconductor industry [5] Group 4 - Major tech companies have raised their capital expenditure forecasts for FY2025, indicating sustained growth in server and data center storage demand [5] - Google increased its FY2025 capital expenditure guidance from $85 billion to $91-93 billion, while Meta narrowed its target to $70-72 billion [5] - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers reported significant revenue growth in Q3, reflecting strong order fulfillment and ongoing R&D investment [5]