Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed companies have shown positive performance in their half-year reports, with a significant proportion of companies expecting profit growth, driven by various factors including international market expansion and cost reduction measures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Out of 26 companies that announced their performance forecasts, approximately 77% are expected to report positive results, with 9 companies anticipating "slight growth," 6 "increased growth," 4 "continued profit," 1 "turning profitable," and 1 "slight decrease" [2][3]. - Companies such as Guangda Special Materials and Shengnuo Bio are expected to see net profit increases exceeding 100% [2][5]. - The industries with the highest concentration of companies expecting positive results include pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and hardware equipment [2][9]. Group 2: Individual Company Highlights - Guangda Special Materials forecasts a net profit of approximately 200 million yuan, representing a growth of 367.51% [4][5]. - Shengnuo Bio anticipates a net profit between 77.03 million and 94.14 million yuan, with a growth rate of 253.54% to 332.10% [4][5]. - Tai Ling Micro expects a net profit of about 99 million yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 267% [4][6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - The overall net profit growth of A-share listed companies is expected to continue improving, driven by macroeconomic policies and industry restructuring [8][9]. - Analysts predict that sectors such as consumer services, information technology, and midstream manufacturing will see relatively high profit growth in 2025 [8][9]. - The market sentiment is optimistic, with many institutions recommending an overweight position in the Chinese stock market, anticipating a bull market in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed companies are showing positive performance in their half-year reports, with a significant number of companies forecasting profit increases, driven by international market expansion, improved gross margins, optimized product structures, and cost reduction measures [2][3][9]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - As of July 1, 2025, 26 companies have announced their half-year performance forecasts, with approximately 77% expecting positive results [2][3]. - Among these, 9 companies anticipate "slight increases," 6 expect "increases," 4 forecast "continued profits," 1 expects a "turnaround," and 1 predicts a "slight decrease" [3][5]. - Notable companies with significant profit increases include Guangda Special Materials, which expects a net profit increase of 367.51%, and Saintno Biological, with an expected increase of 253.54% to 332.10% [6][8]. Group 2: Industry Distribution - The companies expecting positive performance are primarily concentrated in the pharmaceutical, semiconductor, and hardware equipment sectors [3][13]. - The performance growth is attributed to factors such as international business expansion, recovery in product gross margins, product structure optimization, and cost reduction initiatives [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the overall profitability of A-share listed companies will continue to recover, leading to a stabilization in valuations [11]. - The sectors expected to see higher profit growth in 2025 include consumer services, information technology, and midstream manufacturing [12]. - The market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of a bull market in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by improvements in technology capabilities and domestic demand [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Core Viewpoint - UBS Securities analyst Meng Lei believes that A-share earnings may gradually recover quarter by quarter this year, provided the macro environment remains stable [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - After short-term fluctuations, the market is expected to present upward opportunities in the medium to long term [1] - Any incremental fiscal and monetary policies may boost market confidence and drive A-share market valuation increases in the medium term [1] Group 2: Structural Reforms - China is undergoing comprehensive structural reforms that are gradually enhancing investment attractiveness [1] - Key aspects of these reforms include lowering foreign investment access thresholds and invigorating the vitality of private enterprises [1]

【导读】沪深北三大交易所6月30日新增受理41家IPO企业 见习记者 舍梨 A股IPO久违的"受理潮"又出现了。 6月30日，2025年上半年最后一天，沪深北三大交易所共新增受理41家IPO企业。其中，北 交所受理了32家公司的IPO，深交所受理了4家公司的IPO，上交所受理了5家公司的IPO，均 为科创板项目。这也成为今年以来受理数量最多的一天。 从单月来看，6月IPO新受理数量达到150家，占今年全年受理总数的85%，创下今年以来单 月新高。截至目前，2025年A股已受理177家企业，已超去年全年受理总数。 民生证券投行事业部保荐代表人吴超在接受记者采访时表示，从常规流程来看，6月份受理数 量集中增加有其合理性。企业以2024年年报作为财务基准日进行申报后，需依次完成财务核 查、审计、内核、辅导验收以及申请文件撰写等一系列IPO必要程序，完成这些流程通常需要 较长时间。此外，2024年IPO整体呈现阶段性收紧态势，数量处于较低水平，属于一种异常 状态。如今，IPO受理数量的增加，正是市场逐步恢复常态化的体现。 6月IPO受理迎来高峰 今年6月，沪深北三地交易所集中受理一批IPO企业，已超过前5个月的总和。 ...

器色盒属数据日报 | 2025/07/01 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宇慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 6月30日 | 3015.00 | 3128.00 | 690. 00 | 1442.50 | 861.00 | | | 涨跌值 | 18. 00 | 7.00 | 2. 00 | -8. 50 | -14.00 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.60 7 | 0.22 | 0. 29 | -0. 59 | -1.60 - | | | 近月合约收盘价 | RB2510 ...

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the third set of standards for the ChiNext board and the fifth set for the Sci-Tech Innovation board has created a favorable environment for unprofitable companies to go public, but the actual number of such listings is expected to remain limited due to high standards and the preference for Hong Kong listings among many companies [1][4][9]. Group 1: Recent Developments - As of June 29, four unprofitable companies have had their IPO applications accepted in a short span, including DaPuWei on the ChiNext board and three others on the Sci-Tech Innovation board [2][4]. - Currently, there are 14 unprofitable companies in the queue for IPOs, with half of them having been accepted before the "827 new policy" in 2023 [2][5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the recent acceptance of unprofitable companies, industry insiders believe that a large influx of such listings is unrealistic in the short term due to stringent standards that require strong technological attributes [5][7]. - The four recently accepted companies are all in the semiconductor sector and are leaders in their respective niches, indicating a trend towards high-tech industries [6][7]. Group 3: Company Performance - DaPuWei, while unprofitable, has shown significant improvement in its financials, with net losses decreasing from 617 million yuan in 2023 to 191 million yuan in 2024, suggesting it may soon meet the profit requirements for the ChiNext board [6]. - Other companies like Zhaoxin Integrated and Shanghai Super Silicon have not shown similar financial improvements, but they are focused on breaking international monopolies in their fields [6][7]. Group 4: Hong Kong vs. A-Share Market - Many unprofitable companies that initially planned to list in Hong Kong are unlikely to switch back to the A-share market due to the perceived certainty of Hong Kong listings [8][9]. - Among the unprofitable companies that have applied for Hong Kong listings, several had previously failed in their A-share IPO attempts, indicating a trend of companies seeking more reliable listing options [8].

【紫金矿业12亿美元收购金矿，"收购—盈利—再收购"模式持续】6月30日早盘，紫金矿业公告，计划 12亿美元收购哈萨克斯坦Raygorodok大型金矿。这是其年内继加纳Akyem金矿后的又一笔黄金矿产资源 并购。 今年3月业绩说明会上，董事长陈景河指出黄金是未来投资并购重要方向。加上收购藏格矿业控 股权，上半年外部并购金额超220亿元。 上半年，在股权激励、分拆黄金资产港股上市等运作下，紫金 矿业股价创新高。截至半年度收官，其涨幅达30.85%，总市值超5000亿。 6月29日，旗下新加坡子公司 金哈矿业与Cantech签约，收购RG金矿100%权益。该矿位于哈北部，是在产矿山，基础设施完备。 2022 - 2024年，RG金矿产金分别为2吨、5.9吨和6吨，2024年现金成本796美元/盎司。紫金矿业称其盈 利能力强，并购当年可贡献产量和利润。 通过改进措施，RG金矿产量及效益有望提高。4月公司刚完 成加纳Akyem金矿并购，两矿年产量超5吨，排公司金矿前五位。 两矿收购短期内为紫金矿业带来12吨 黄金增量，助力实现年度目标。中期也为"2028年矿产金100 - 110吨"目标提供支撑。 受益于铜、金价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market sentiment is warm, and the bond market continues to fluctuate. For stock index futures, sentiment is positive with healthy long - short position changes; for stock index options, a covered defense strategy is recommended; for treasury bond futures, the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: IF, IH, IC, and IM's current - month basis, inter - period spreads, and positions changed. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated higher on Monday, with small - cap sentiment remaining active. Large - cap stocks retreated after capital congestion, and funds flowed to small - cap stocks. IM saw healthy long - short position changes, with a significant decrease in positions and wider intraday discounts [7]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks eased, the tariff deadline was postponed, and the market shifted its focus to internal profit improvement as the interim report announcements approached. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to allocate long IM contracts [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Conditions**: The equity market oscillated upward with sectoral divergence. Although sentiment indicators rose with the underlying assets, the trading volume in the options market declined significantly, and trading liquidity was lower than expected [7]. - **Logic**: In a low - liquidity derivatives market, sentiment indicators showed synchronicity but no guiding effect. Implied volatility only corresponded to daily market fluctuations, and all varieties showed a decline in volatility in the morning. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a covered defense strategy [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. T, TF, TS, and TL's main contracts changed by - 0.16%, - 0.10%, - 0.05%, and - 0.43% respectively. Trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis all had corresponding changes [3][8][9]. - **Logic**: The central bank's second - quarter policy statement was positive, the end - of - month capital tightened, the June PMI was better than expected, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was evident. At the beginning of the month, the capital may seasonally loosen, but the central bank may be cautious in liquidity injection, and the supply of new local bonds in July may remain high [3][9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, maintain an oscillating view; for hedging strategies, focus on short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, appropriately focus on basis widening; for curve strategies, steepening the curve in the medium term has higher odds [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating 3.2 Economic Calendar - The official manufacturing PMI in China in June was 49.7, better than the previous value of 49.5. The US will release the June ISM manufacturing index on July 1st, the June unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls change on July 3rd [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Bond Market**: As of the end of May, overseas institutions' custodial balance in the Chinese bond market was 4.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.3% of the total. In the inter - bank bond market, the balance was 4.3 trillion yuan. Overseas institutions held 2.1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, 1.2 trillion yuan of negotiable certificates of deposit, and 0.8 trillion yuan of policy - bank bonds [11]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US Senate procedurally voted to pass the "Great Beauty" tax and spending bill pushed by President Trump. The bill is estimated to increase the US federal government's debt by about $3.8 trillion in the next 10 years [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent rebound in the US stock market is supported by fundamental improvements, driven by three key factors: earnings expectations revision, a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, and a reduction in geopolitical and policy risks [1][10][12] Group 2 - Earnings expectations have significantly improved, with the breadth of earnings revisions rising from a low of -25% in mid-April to -5%, indicating a strong recovery in corporate earnings outlook [3][5] - Historical data suggests that similar V-shaped recoveries in earnings revisions often lead to strong market returns over the following 12 months [5] - The preference for large-cap quality stocks, represented by the "Magnificent Seven," continues to lead in earnings revisions and stock performance, while small-cap stocks lag behind historical highs [7][14] Group 3 - The market is increasingly pricing in potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Morgan Stanley predicting up to seven rate cuts by the end of next year, which could support stock valuations in the second half of this year [10][11] - Employment market data will be a key trigger for the Fed's policy shift, with significant private sector job growth below expectations potentially prompting earlier rate cuts [11] Group 4 - Geopolitical risks have eased, with oil prices dropping 14% since June 19, reducing inflationary pressures and potential threats to the business cycle [13] - The removal of concerns regarding the "capital tax" clause from the "Big Beautiful" plan alleviates risks related to foreign direct investment in the US [13] Group 5 - The current stock risk premium is at a 20-year low, while earnings risk is at a 20-year high, indicating a notable contradiction that warrants attention [14] - Long-term prospects remain optimistic, with AI-driven productivity improvements expected to contribute an additional 30 basis points to S&P 500 net profit margins by 2025-2026, expanding to 50 basis points by 2027 [16]