重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：市场等待美联储决议，美零售销售继续回升，金价继续走高；美国三大 股指小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收 益率跌0.58个基点报4.028%；美元指数跌0.73%报96.65，离岸人民币对美元升值报 7.1041；COMEX黄金期货涨0.23%报3727.5美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货842.08，现货838，基差-4.08，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单53226千克，增加2799千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方； ...

9月17日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价整体持稳，黄金回收价转跌。其中，周生生黄金上涨1元/克，报价1092元/ 克，为今日最高价金店。上海中国黄金保持不变，报价999元/克，为最低价金店。今日的金店高低价差扩大至93元。 昨日现货黄金继续保持上涨走势，盘中再创历史新高，涨至3702.95美元/盎司，后续出现回落，最终收报3689.83美元/盎 司，涨幅0.30%。今日金价暂有下跌走势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3677.43美元/盎司，跌幅0.37%。 对于昨日金价走势，独立金属交易员Tai Wong分析称，黄金受美元大幅走弱而强势攀升，当前美元已跌至7月以来的最低 位。不过，由于周三美联储将公布关键利率决议，市场情绪趋于谨慎，部分投资者选择在此时锁定利润、获利了结，这一 现象并不意外。 还需注意的是，昨日公布的美国8月零售销售月率录得0.6%，市场此前预期为0.2%，前值0.5%。稍稍提振了美元指数，限制 了金价的部分涨幅。 另外，地缘政治局势仍保持紧张态势，乌克兰继续保持对俄基础能源设施的袭击。以色列也加强了对加沙的空袭，美国方 面则是向哈马斯强硬表态，通过谈判结束战争的"窗口期非常短暂"。进一步推动市 ...

Group 1: US Stock Market Performance - The US stock indices collectively rose on Monday, driven by positive factors such as US-China trade talks and gains in some tech stocks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time closing highs [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 0.11%, the S&P 500 surpassed 6600 points for the first time, closing up 0.47%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.94% [1] Group 2: Alphabet Inc. (Google's Parent Company) - Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalization surpassed $3 trillion for the first time, driven by investor optimism regarding its growth potential in AI products [2][4] - Alphabet's Class A shares rose nearly 4.5% compared to the previous trading day, contributing to its historic market cap milestone [4] Group 3: Tesla Inc. - CEO Elon Musk purchased approximately 2.57 million shares of Tesla, valued at around $1 billion, marking his first significant buyback in recent years [5][7] - Following this news, Tesla's stock price rose over 6% during the day, closing with a gain of about 3.6%, and its market capitalization exceeded $1.3 trillion [8] Group 4: European Stock Market - European stock indices showed mixed results, with investors focusing on US-China trade talks and upcoming central bank interest rate decisions, leading to cautious trading sentiment [10] - The UK FTSE 100 index slightly fell by 0.07%, while the French CAC40 index rose by 0.92% and the German DAX index increased by 0.21% [10] Group 5: Oil Prices - International oil prices experienced a slight increase due to concerns over geopolitical risks potentially disrupting global oil supply [11] - As of the close, light crude oil futures for October settled at $63.30 per barrel, up 0.97%, while November Brent crude futures closed at $67.44 per barrel, up 0.67% [11] Group 6: Gold Prices - International gold prices surpassed $3,700 per ounce, reaching a new all-time high, supported by a weaker dollar, declining US Treasury yields, and heightened geopolitical tensions [12][14] - The December gold futures price closed at $3,719 per ounce, reflecting a gain of 0.88% [14]

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in gold prices is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties, and a trend towards "de-dollarization" which may position gold as a new pricing anchor [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the first quarter, gold prices were primarily driven by uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies and rising geopolitical risks, leading to increased safe-haven investments in gold [1] - From mid-April to August, easing trade tensions and a reduction in geopolitical risks led to market divergence regarding future gold price movements, resulting in a prolonged sideways trend [1] - Starting in August, expectations for Fed rate cuts increased, supported by softening inflation data, which contributed to a breakout in gold prices [1][2] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly due to Trump's attempts to influence its governance, have raised doubts about the credibility of the dollar, prompting a shift towards gold as a safe asset [2] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, including issues in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine situation, have maintained high levels of market uncertainty, further boosting demand for gold [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - While the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to the Fed's anticipated rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, there may be short-term adjustments as the market has already priced in these expectations [3] - Investors are advised to consider gold ETFs, such as those tracking the AU9999 spot contract, for a more stable investment, while those seeking higher volatility may look into gold mining stock ETFs [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, US inflation data showed that PPI turned negative month - on - month and CPI was slightly higher than expected. The inflation pressure on the production side eased, and consumer - side price increases were mainly driven by cars, clothing, and housing costs. The labor market significantly cooled, and the market increased bets on Fed rate cuts, expecting three cuts this year. Precious metals continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $3,700 per ounce and COMEX silver futures breaking through $43 per ounce [3]. - In terms of capital, last week, COMEX gold inventory declined while COMEX silver inventory increased. The inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs slowed down, and hedge funds increased their long positions in gold and silver [3]. - Geopolitical factors such as the Trump tariff case and Fed personnel changes continued to disrupt the market. If Trump's tariffs are ruled illegal, the US will face huge tax refunds, increasing fiscal pressure. The search for a new Fed chair is ongoing, and future Fed leadership will face major adjustments. Inflation may gradually show the impact of tariffs, and there is uncertainty in the second - half rate - cut path. With the continued Russia - Ukraine conflict, central banks and investors are increasing their holdings of precious metals, providing bottom support for precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will continue to fluctuate upward. The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, oscillatory in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high in the medium - term. Shanghai silver is oscillatory in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The spot price of gold in the London market increased by 1.57% to $3,651.10 per ounce, COMEX gold futures rose 1.12% to $3,680.70 per ounce, the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 3.72% to 834.22 yuan per gram, and gold A (T + D) (spot) rose 2.30% to 830.34 yuan per gram. The spot price of silver in the London market increased by 3.72% to $42.26 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 2.82% to $42.68 per ounce, the Shanghai silver main contract increased by 2.27% to 10,035 yuan per kilogram, and silver A (T + D) (spot) rose 2.51% to 10,034 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Inventory and Position Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.11% to 3,891.45 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 1.75% to 52,742.32 million ounces. COMEX gold total positions increased by 3.39% to 150,000 lots, and COMEX gold speculative net long positions increased by 4.89% to 261,700 lots. COMEX silver total positions decreased by 1.05% to 156,700 lots, and COMEX silver speculative net long positions decreased by 3.55% to 53,900 lots [5]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: Last week, the domestic gold - silver ratio fell to around 83, and the overseas gold - silver ratio fell to around 86, still higher than their long - term historical averages. Supported by Fed rate - cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, silver continued to rise with gold and has room for catch - up growth due to its industrial attributes and the repair of the gold - silver ratio [7]. - **Domestic - Overseas Price Difference**: The domestic - overseas price difference of gold increased compared to the previous week, while that of silver slightly decreased. Gold and silver continued to rise and broke historical highs last week [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Aspects - **Dollar Index**: Last week, US inflation and employment data showed moderate inflation and high employment downside risks, boosting Fed rate - cut expectations. Coupled with the continuous disruption of the Trump tariff case and Fed personnel changes, the dollar index was under pressure, providing bottom support for precious metal prices [13]. - **US Treasury Real Yields**: Last week, the real yields of 5 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds continued to decline, mainly due to moderate inflation and a weakening labor market, further strengthening Fed rate - cut expectations and expecting three rate cuts this year [16]. - **US Key Economic Data** - **CPI**: In August, US CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year. Core commodity price increases accelerated, and service - sector price increases were mainly driven by housing costs, indicating moderate inflation [21]. - **PPI**: In August, US PPI was 2.6% year - on - year, lower than expected, and - 0.1% month - on - month, turning negative for the first time in four months, indicating that inflation pressure on the production side is easing [21]. - **Core PCE**: In July, the US core PCE increased by 2.88% year - on - year, and 0.3% month - on - month, both in line with market expectations. The PCE increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, also meeting expectations [25]. - **PMI**: In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, below expectations, and the service PMI was 52, showing that the manufacturing sector was in contraction while the service sector expanded [28]. - **Retail Sales**: In July, US retail sales increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and core retail sales increased by 0.27% month - on - month, indicating improved consumer activity [28]. - **Employment Data**: In August, US ADP employment increased by only 54,000, non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The number of initial jobless claims last week reached a nearly four - year high, indicating a significant cooling of the labor market [31]. - **Fed Rate Cuts**: Last week's US inflation data was moderate, and the labor market was weak, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and expecting three rate cuts this year. Geopolitical conflicts such as the Trump tariff case and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued to disrupt the market, and the path of rate cuts in the second half of the year remains uncertain [32]. 3. Position Analysis - **Hedge Fund Positions**: As of September 9, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 32,300 lots to 261,700 lots, and CMX silver speculative net long positions increased by 9,700 lots to 53,900 lots [35]. - **ETF Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 7.17 tons to 974.80 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 124.25 tons to 15,069.60 tons, indicating a slowdown in the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs [36]. 4. Other Elements - **Inventory**: Last week, COMEX gold inventory was 3,891.45 million ounces, a 0.11% decrease, and COMEX silver inventory was 52,742.32 million ounces, a 1.75% increase [42]. - **Demand** - **Gold**: In September 2025, global gold reserves increased by 15.24 tons to 36,359.73 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 1.87 tons to 2,300.40 tons. In Q2 2025, global gold demand increased by 3% year - on - year, and in August, gold ETFs had a net inflow of $5.5 billion [45]. - **Silver**: The global silver market is expected to be in a structural shortage for the fifth consecutive year in 2025. Industrial demand for silver remains strong, and silver has room for catch - up growth [45]. - **This Week's Key Events**: This week, focus on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, expecting a rate cut. Also, pay attention to the release of US August retail sales data to see if consumer demand maintains its resilience [48].

来看华尔街对黄金的看法。 华尔街的15位分析师中，80%（即12人）坚定看好黄金价格上涨，仅13%（2人）预测下跌，剩余7%（1 人）预计横盘。 散户方面，268位散户投资者中有65%（174人）仍押注上涨，17%（46人）担忧回调，18%（48人）选 择观望观望。 日内收盘，沪金上涨0.86%，报收831.6元/克。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 目前在美国就业市场下行风险增加的情况下，美联储政策路径呈现"预期强化-独立性受挫"的双重特征 从而打压美元指数，同时欧美国家政治局势动荡使股市风险偏好下降从而增加机构投资者对贵金属避险 的配置需求带来价格不断抬升。非农数据"爆冷"美联储降息概率较高的情况下多头驱动明确金价上行趋 势涨至 3600 美元以上但降息预期消化后趋势或有所缓和，等待美联储决议后酝酿新的上涨动力，短期 单边以逢低谨慎买入为主，或卖出虚值黄金期权把握波动率回落的收益。 法院裁定特朗普关税政策违法，以及特朗普解除联储理事库克的职位引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧， 此外法国政府垮台和日本首相辞职进一步加剧非美市场不确定性，避险情绪提升也使黄金受益。 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices are currently challenging the $3700 per ounce mark after a period of consolidation around $3400, driven by weak U.S. employment indicators and increased likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The significant rise in gold prices in 2025, with an increase of approximately 30% in less than nine months, is attributed to geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, as well as concerns over the future of the U.S. dollar due to trade wars and Federal Reserve policies [2] - The rise in gold prices is expected to have a limited impact on industrial production but may suppress jewelry consumption, particularly affecting businesses that produce and sell gold jewelry [2] Group 2 - Mining companies with substantial gold reserves and favorable production conditions are likely to benefit from rising gold prices, which also positively influences silver and other precious metals [3] - The ongoing increase in gold prices is shifting investor behavior, with a notable rise in sales of physical gold products like gold bars, while jewelry consumption declines, indicating a preference for gold as a safe-haven investment [3] - The limited capacity of domestic gold investment avenues, such as the 20 available gold ETFs with a total net value of around 155 billion yuan, suggests that there is potential for growth in gold investment options, which could influence market dynamics [4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in gold prices driven by multiple factors including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, rising global geopolitical uncertainties, and increased central bank gold purchases [1][2][3] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The primary drivers of the recent gold price surge are heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over the political independence of the Fed, leading to increased risk aversion [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy was signaled by Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole conference, which has significantly raised market expectations for rate cuts [2] - Recent labor market data showed disappointing job growth, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in September, with traders now pricing in a 100% probability of a cut [2][4] Group 2: Central Bank and ETF Demand - Strong global buying pressure, particularly from central banks and increased inflows into gold ETFs, has provided substantial support for gold prices [3][6] - Central banks have been significant buyers, with global official gold reserves increasing by 166 tons in Q2 2025, maintaining historical highs [3] - China's central bank reported an increase in gold reserves to 74.02 million ounces, marking the tenth consecutive month of increases [3] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts, including Goldman Sachs, have raised their gold price forecasts, with a baseline target of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and a potential extreme scenario of $5,000 [4][5] - The expectation of continued rate cuts and ongoing political uncertainties are seen as key factors supporting this optimistic outlook for gold prices [4][5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider various investment tools in the gold market, including physical gold, liquid gold ETFs, gold mining stocks, and leveraged gold futures [6] - The low correlation of gold with traditional stock and bond assets makes it an effective tool for risk diversification and stabilizing overall portfolio returns [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant trading volume of over 2.5 trillion, an increase of over 800 billion compared to the previous day, indicating a shift in capital direction [1][5] - The major indices showed minimal movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.09% [3] Sector Performance - The metals sector, particularly precious metals and copper, saw notable gains, with stocks like Hunan Silver and Northern Copper reaching their daily limit up [3] - The storage chip sector also gained traction, with stocks such as Beijing Junzheng and Xiangnong Chip rising over 10%, reflecting renewed interest in the semiconductor industry's recovery [3] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector was active, with companies like Rongsheng Development and Huaxia Happiness hitting their daily limit up, driven by recent policy changes and stabilization in some companies' operations [4] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and core assets, as potential policy support could enhance long-term value in this sector [4] Other Sectors - The banking and liquor sectors faced adjustments, with banks like Pudong Development Bank dropping over 3% and liquor stocks experiencing a pullback after initial gains [4] - The banking sector is influenced by macroeconomic conditions and interest rate spreads, while the liquor sector's performance is tied to consumer recovery [4] Investment Strategy - The significant trading volume indicates a reallocation of funds across different sectors, suggesting a need for investors to focus on sectors with strong industrial logic and policy support [5] - It is advised to monitor the fundamental health of sectors experiencing declines, as short-term fluctuations may present opportunities for long-term investment [5]

#第一金PPLI：黄金白银市场动态解析与投资参考 从最新市场数据来看，全球规模领先的黄金 ETF 持 仓变动引发关注 —— 截至 9 月 11 日，其持仓量录得 977.95 吨，较前一交易日减少 2.01 吨，短期市场 对黄金的配置意愿略有降温；不过拉长至月度维度，该 ETF 本月仍实现 0.27 吨净增持，说明机构对黄 金的中长期配置价值仍持认可态度，为金价提供了一定支撑。 地缘政治层面，墨西哥近期推出的提税政策引发广泛讨论。据央视新闻报道，有分析认为，此举不仅与 美国长期对华战略方向一致，有助于墨西哥后续与北美贸易伙伴的磋商进程，还能配合 "墨西哥计划" 推动本土生产与消费升级。对此，中国方面已明确表态，将根据实际情况采取必要应对措施，地缘局势 的不确定性为黄金的避险属性提供了发挥空间。 美国经济数据呈现 "喜忧参半" 态势：8 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.9%、环比攀升 0.4%，基本符合市场预期，通 胀水平保持相对稳定；但上周美国初请失业金人数意外飙升至 26.3 万，创下近四年以来的新高，劳动 力市场疲软信号明显。通胀涨幅超预期叠加失业救济人数激增，进一步加剧了美国经济前景的不确定 性，市场避险情绪 ...