数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 沪铜产业日报 2025/5/15 | | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 77,870.00 | -1070.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,480.00 | -126.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 370.00 | -110.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 186,574.00 | -7337.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 10,701.00 | +9143.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 185,575.00 | -4075.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 80,705.00 | -8602.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 77,650.00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions has led to a market rebound, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its target prices for Chinese stocks twice within a week, returning to levels predicted before April 2 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 14, the Chinese stock market has fully recovered the losses incurred since April 2, with the MSCI China, CSI 300, and Hang Seng Tech indices rising by 2-4% from their early April highs [1][4]. - The reduction of tariffs has contributed to this recovery, with a total of 91% of the tariffs being lifted and a suspension of 24% of retaliatory tariffs, exceeding market expectations [4]. Group 2: Goldman Sachs Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has maintained an overweight rating on Chinese stocks, adjusting the 12-month target prices for the MSCI China and CSI 300 indices to 84 and 4600 points, respectively, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17% [1][5]. - The firm has revised its GDP growth forecasts for both the U.S. and China, reflecting a more optimistic economic outlook [6]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The hardware technology, industrial, and consumer sectors have led the market rally, while healthcare, U.S. exporters, and government spending-related stocks have lagged [4]. - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from consumption recovery and digital transformation, including quality regional banks and leading real estate companies [5].

东海期货 铁矿石价格短期以偏强思路对待 华联期货 前期铁矿2509合约空单注意减仓 新世纪期货：稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套 关税降幅超预期，市场情绪明显提振，黑色盘面大幅上涨。随着部分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的 改善，供应仍有增加的预期。铁矿港口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核心关 键，贸易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善，美国进口商未来三个月将迎来进口成本大幅降低 的明确窗口期，未来90天中美两国之间的贸易将大幅增长，对近月形成一定支撑，稳健的投资者尝试铁 矿正套，激进的投资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月合约反弹抛空机会。 东海期货：铁矿石价格短期以偏强思路对待 5月15日盘中，铁矿石期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至738.5元。截止发稿，铁矿石主力合 约报735.5元，涨幅1.03%。 铁矿石期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 新世纪期货 稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套 钢厂利润可观，铁水产量短期处于高位，后续铁水产量回落是大概率事件，但对于回落路径，市场存在 较大分歧。供应方面，铁矿石发货量环比回落21.5万吨，到港量环比回落95.1万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of today's (May 15, 2025) futures main contracts. Index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while gold, silver, crude oil, glass, soda ash, and PTA futures are likely to oscillate weakly. Alumina, PVC, styrene futures, and container shipping index (European line) futures are predicted to oscillate strongly [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 are expected to oscillate strongly. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 main contracts are likely to oscillate widely [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, rebar, hot - rolled coils, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and crude oil futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Aluminum, alumina, zinc, iron ore, PVC, styrene, and container shipping index (European line) futures are likely to oscillate strongly [2][3][4][6]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - **Tariff Measures**: China's counter - measures against US fentanyl tariffs remain effective. The US has adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods, canceling 91% of the tariffs and implementing 34% reciprocal tariffs, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. The US has also adjusted the ad - valorem tax rate for small Chinese parcels and canceled a planned increase in the specific tax [7]. - **Monetary Policy**: China's central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points for most financial institutions and 5 percentage points for auto finance companies and financial leasing companies, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the market [8]. - **Other Policies**: Seven departments have jointly issued policies to promote science and technology finance. The National Development and Reform Commission has held a symposium for private enterprises, and the State Council has issued a legislative work plan [9]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On May 14, international precious metal futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 2.07% to $3180.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.15% to $32.39 per ounce [11]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices weakened on May 14. US crude oil futures fell 1.23% to $62.89 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.23% to $65.81 per barrel [11]. - **Other Commodities**: Domestic commodity futures had mixed results on May 14. Energy and chemical products generally rose, while base metals mostly closed higher. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar weakened slightly, and the US dollar index rose slightly [12][13]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On May 14, index futures showed strong performance. A - shares also rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 3400 points. The market has rumors about account verification and fund positions, and insurance funds are expected to increase their allocation of CSI A500 index components [13][14][15][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 14, treasury bond futures closed lower across the board. The ten - year and thirty - year main contracts are expected to oscillate widely on May 15 [37][42]. - **Commodity Futures**: Each commodity futures contract's performance on May 14 is analyzed, and the trend for May 15 is predicted, including resistance and support levels [43][49][53] etc.

Overall Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices have been falling this year, priced with the expectation of weak demand after the imposition of tariffs. However, the industry has strong supply and demand, with continuous inventory reduction. Exports and re - exports support steel demand this year. With low inventory support, improved macro - sentiment is expected to repair valuations. Attention should be paid to the impact of terminal restocking on spot prices. For the October contract, pay attention to the pressure in the range of 3200 - 3250 for rebar and 3300 - 3400 for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated upwards. Affected by macro - sentiment, the black series generally rose. In the short term, iron ore is expected to have a valuation repair, but in the medium - to - long term, a bearish view should be maintained. The high - level sustainability of hot - metal production depends on the terminal demand for finished products, and the marginal changes lie in exports and infrastructure [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The macro - positive factors drove a general rise in commodities. On the supply side, coke enterprises' production increased due to good orders, and coking profits improved. On the demand side, hot - metal production remained high after the holiday, and steel mills replenished inventory as needed. It is necessary to pay attention to whether hot - metal production will decline in the future. The inventory of coking plants and steel mills decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke (equal value) [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures oscillated and rose. The macro - positive factors drove a general rise in commodities. The spot market continued to decline slightly. The futures market was in a deep - discount structure, with large hedging pressure. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal remained loose in the short term. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal (equal value) [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The ferrosilicon futures oscillated strongly. Recently, manufacturers have carried out maintenance and production cuts, and the production decline has accelerated. The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and it is expected that the price will oscillate, stabilize, and rebound. The ferromanganese futures also rose slightly. The supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, and it is expected that the price will also oscillate and stabilize [6]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, rebar 10 - contract rose 48 yuan/ton from 3079 to 3127, and hot - rolled coil 10 - contract rose 52 yuan/ton from 3215 to 3267 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 2980 yuan/ton. Some steel product profits changed, such as the East China rebar profit decreased by 21 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output increased slightly by 0.2 to 245.6 (0.1% increase). The output of five major steel products decreased by 9.5 to 874.2 (- 1.1%), and rebar output decreased by 9.8 to 223.5 (- 4.2%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 1476.1 (2.0% increase), rebar inventory increased by 9.6 to 653.6 (1.5% increase), and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 10.9 to 365.1 (3.1% increase) [1]. Trading and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.2 to 12.0 (22.4% increase). The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 125.7 to 845.2 (- 12.9%), and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 77.8 to 213.9 (- 26.7%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 09 - contract basis of various iron ore powders also increased significantly. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased from 32.7 to 87.9 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 63.1 to 2449.7 (- 2.5%), and the global shipping volume decreased by 137.7 to 3050.5 (- 4.3%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 to 245.6 (0.1% increase). The national monthly pig iron output increased by 859.5 to 7529.4 (12.9%), and the national monthly crude steel output increased by 1687.2 to 9284.1 (22.2%) [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 102.2 to 14340.88 (0.7%), and the inventory of 64 steel mills decreased by 376.1 to 8959.0 (- 4.0%) [4]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The 09 - contract of coke rose by 35 yuan/ton to 1482 (2.4% increase), and the 01 - contract rose by 33 yuan/ton to 1508 (2.2% increase). The coking profit increased by 7 to 1 (700.0% increase) [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 to 66.9 (- 0.2%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.3 (- 0.24%) [5]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 to 245.6 (0.1% increase) [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 17.8 to 994.6 (- 1.8%), the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.5 to 94.4 (- 4.6%), and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.2 to 671.0 (- 0.64%) [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The 09 - contract of coking coal rose by 24 to 894.5 (2.76% increase), and the 01 - contract rose by 29.5 to 911 (3.35% increase). The profit of sample coal mines decreased by 4 to 399 (- 1.0%) [5]. Supply - The output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased, with the raw coal output increasing by 2.8 to 893.1 (0.34%) and the clean coal output increasing by 2.0 to 457.3 (0.4%) [5]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 to 66.9 (- 0.2%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.3 (- 0.2%) [5]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.2 to 210.9 (4.6%), the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 42.7 to 916.6 (- 4.4%), and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 2.4 to 787.2 (0.34%) [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon 72%FeSi main - contract closing price rose by 66 to 5678 (1.2%), and the ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 main - contract closing price rose by 54 to 5864 (0.9%) [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of some regions changed slightly. For example, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 22.3 to 5787.9 (0.4%). Some production profits decreased, such as the production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 3 to - 124 (- 3.0%) [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprises' start - up rate increased by 1.8 to 32.5 (5.8%), and the ferromanganese weekly output decreased by 1.1 to 17.2 (- 5.9%) [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 (- 1.1%), and the ferromanganese demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased by 0.2 to 12.6 (- 1.8%) [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1.0 to 7.4 (- 11.8%), and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese increased by 2.5 to 20.7 (13.9%) [6].

国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 15 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（5 月 14 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指站上 3400 点整数关口。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.86%，收报 3403.95 点；深证成指涨 0.64%，收报 10354.22 点；创业板指涨 1.01%，收报 2083.14 点。沪深两 市成交额达到 13167 亿，较昨日小幅放量 252 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 14 日强势，收盘 3943.21，环比上涨 46.95。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 14 日焦炭加权指数弱势反弹，收盘价 1483.8 元，环比上涨 22.8。 客服产品系列•日评 5 月 14 日，焦煤加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 894.6 元，环比上涨 18.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭提降一轮。13 日邢台地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭下调 50 元/吨、干熄焦炭下调 55 元/吨，2025 年 5 月 16 日零点执行。13 日天津地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭下调 50 元/吨、干熄焦炭下调 55 元/吨，2025 年 5 月 16 日零点执行。13 日石家庄地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭 ...

| 11 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 现价(元) | 张跃幅(%) | 区间涨跌幅:前复权(%) ②↓ 05.12-05.15 | 所属同花顺行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 833171 | 国航远洋 | 14.75 | 19.68 | 116.72 | 交通运输 港口航运 航运 | | | 601022 | 宁波远洋 | 11.12 | ਰੇ ਰੇਰੇ | 39.52 | 交通运输 ·潜口航运 ·航运 | | | 600798 | 宁波海运 | 4.07 | 10.00 | 37.04 | 交通运输 · 港口航运 航运 | | | 000520 | 凤凰航运 | 6.00 == | 7.32 | 33.04 | 交通运输 港口航运 航运 | | િ | 601083 | 锦江航运 | 14.28 | 10.01 | 28.62 | 交通运输 · 塔口航运 航运 | | | 601866 | 中远海发 | 2.87 | 9.96 | 25.33 | 交通运输 ·港口航运 航运 | | | 603162 | 海通发展 | 9.00 | ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业团队 2025/5/15 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 周三，螺纹钢期货价格震荡上行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3240 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 40 元/吨，10 合约基差 113（-8）。宏观政策方面，5 月 7 日， 三部门发布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过市 场仍在期待财政政策发力，中美会谈成果超预期，双方大幅互降关税， 市场预期改善；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需双降，库存小幅累积， 供需格局有转差迹象，当然也有五一假期因素影响，需求是否已经开始 季节性回落还需进一步观察。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格仍 低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸 易环境改善，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现 实供需尚可，但需求仍面临季节性下滑压力，关注需求变化，低估值背 景下，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周三，中美会谈成果营造良好预期，市场再度炒作抢出口，盘面向上回 调。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 778 ...

2025 年 05 月 15 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》点评——攻守 之势迎转折，建议红利底仓叠加出口链弹性 资产配置报告 最近一年走势 相关报告 《资产配置报告：国新办发布会点评——资本市场 迎来多重利好*林加力》——2025-05-08 《4 月资金流向月报：价值型资金或仍为主要定价 力量*徐凝碧，林加力》——2025-05-07 《资产配置报告：社融总量超预期，信贷结构显现 积极变化*林加力，徐凝碧》——2025-04-17 事件: 5 月 12 日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（以下简称"联合声明"）发 布，双方承诺将于 2025 年 5 月 14 日前采取以下举措：美国将（一）修 改 2025 年 4 月 2 日对中国商品加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初 始的 90 天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余 10%的关税；（二）取消 2025 年 4 月 8 日和 4 月 9 日的加征关税。中国 将（一）相应修改对美国商品加征 ...

Group 1 - Huawei is set to launch the HarmonyOS foldable laptop during the nova 14 series and HarmonyOS computer product launch event on May 19 [1] - The China Real Estate Association will hold the "Establishment Conference of the Business Travel Branch of the China Real Estate Association and the 2025 Commercial Real Estate Development Conference" in Beijing on June 12 [2] - Following the mutual tariff reductions between the US and China, container shipping bookings from China to the US have surged nearly 300% [3] Group 2 - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.12%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.35%. The Hang Seng Index declined by 0.25%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.62% [4]