Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market shows a volatile trend with near - term strength and long - term weakness [8]. - Due to the news of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the recovery of demand on the US route, airlines are trying to raise the freight rates on the European route in June. The 6 - month - end quotes from major companies indicate a willingness to increase prices [9]. - Some macro data this week show that the rush - shipping on the US route is less than expected. The change in the long - position logic of the main contract leads to a significant decline in the main - contract price, with the 6 - 8 spread and monthly spread narrowing. The price fluctuates under the influence of news about the US trade court's decision on Trump's trade policy [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2073, up 30.68% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1118, up 0.92%. Rates on various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe have also changed significantly [5]. - **EC Contracts**: For EC contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., their current values, previous values, and changes are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1834.8, up 1.48% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: Positions of different EC contracts (e.g., EC2506, EC2508) and their changes are provided. For instance, the EC2506 position is currently 11037, down 1679 from the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values, previous values, and changes of monthly spreads (e.g., 10 - 12, 12 - 2) are given. For example, the 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently 728.9, down 9.7 from the previous value [5]. 3.2 Trade Friction News - **Sino - US Trade**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days. However, there are signs of a resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, and the US plans more sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - **US - EU Trade**: The EU is "strongly regretful" about the US raising steel tariffs to 50% and is preparing "counter - measures" [7]. - **US Court Decision**: The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed since Trump's second term, except for those on specific industries like automobiles, steel, and aluminum [7]. 3.3 Market Conditions - **Spot Market**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on the US route, airlines are trying to raise European - route freight rates in June. Quotes for late June also show an upward trend [9]. - **Futures Market**: The main - contract price shows a volatile downward trend due to the change in the long - position logic and the influence of news about the US trade court's decision on Trump's trade policy [9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the fluctuation in the A-share market, which showed initial concerns but eventually led to a rise, influenced by the performance of Hong Kong stocks and the Chinese concept stocks index [1][2] - The market's rise was attributed to a mix of external factors, including concerns over increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, and positive expectations from potential communications, which created a favorable atmosphere [2] - The brokerage sector played a significant role in driving market sentiment, with a notable increase in small and medium-sized banks, which positively impacted the brokerage stocks [2][3] Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a transitional phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a positive trend but not yet breaking recent highs, indicating a cautious optimism [4] - The weekly MACD technical indicators for the Shanghai Composite Index are showing signs of a potential bullish crossover, suggesting a stronger upward trend may be forming [5] - The overall sentiment towards the A-share market remains optimistic, particularly if the brokerage sector can catch up and attract more investment [4][5]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Nasdaq gaining nearly 0.7% [1] - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.61% [1] - The ISM reported that the U.S. manufacturing index fell to 48.5 in May, indicating a contraction for the third consecutive month [3] - Uncertainty remains high in the manufacturing sector due to tariff pressures affecting delivery times [3] Company Performance - Major technology stocks showed mixed results, with Meta Platforms up 3.6%, Nvidia up 1.6%, and Amazon up 0.8%, while Google fell 1.5% [1] - Automotive stocks declined, with General Motors and Ford both down 3.9%, Stellantis down 3.6%, and Tesla down 1.1% following Trump's comments on production requirements [4] - Steel stocks surged, with Steel Dynamics and Nucor rising by 10%, and Cleveland-Cliffs soaring by 23% due to tariff news [4] Commodity Market - International oil prices rebounded significantly, with light crude oil futures rising by $1.73 to $62.52 per barrel, a 2.85% increase [5] - Gold prices reached a three-week high, driven by a weaker dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with COMEX gold futures up 2.7% to $3404.70 per ounce [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, particularly focusing on the decline of major indices and the impact of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which has led to significant gains in the steel and aluminum sectors. Market Performance - On June 2, the three major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.5%, S&P 500 down 0.25%, and Nasdaq down 0.05% [1] - Specific stock performances include Tesla dropping nearly 3% due to poor sales in Europe [1][8] Steel and Aluminum Sector - Following President Trump's announcement to increase tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%, steel and aluminum stocks surged, with Century Aluminum rising over 28%, Cleveland-Cliffs up over 21%, and Nucor and Steel Dynamics both increasing over 10% [5][6][7] - The market response indicates a strong bullish sentiment in the steel and aluminum sectors due to the tariff hike [5] Tesla's Sales Performance - Tesla's sales in Europe were notably poor in May, with France experiencing a 67% drop, marking the lowest sales level in nearly three years. Other countries like Portugal, Denmark, and Sweden also reported significant declines in sales [8][9] - As of the latest trading session, Tesla's stock price fell by 2.69%, contributing to a year-to-date decline of 16% [9] Technology Sector Performance - In the technology sector, Nvidia rose by 1%, while Apple saw a slight increase, and Meta Platforms gained over 1%. Conversely, Amazon and Microsoft experienced minor declines, with Google down 1.59% [10][11]

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Metal Stocks - President Trump's announcement to increase tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% has significantly influenced U.S. metal stocks, strengthening domestic producers by reducing foreign competition and increasing prices [1][2] - Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) stock surged about 33% in pre-market trading following the tariff announcement, while Nucor Corp (NYSE: NUE) shares rose around 13% [2] - United States Steel stock (NYSE:X) increased by 22% over the past week and is up nearly 65% year-to-date [2] Group 2: Cleveland-Cliffs Performance - Cleveland-Cliffs stock has decreased by 66% over the last year and approximately 76% over the past three years, with a 15% revenue decline in the last twelve months [3][4] - The company's price-to-sales (PS) multiple has dropped from 1.1x in 2020 to 0.48x in 2023, currently at 0.2x, indicating potential for upside compared to previous years [4] - For Q1 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs reported revenues of $4.6 billion, up from $4.3 billion in Q4 2024, but incurred a net loss of $483 million, attributed to underutilized assets and low steel prices [5] Group 3: Strategic Responses and Future Outlook - Cleveland-Cliffs plans to temporarily close several facilities and pause capital spending on a transformer facility, expecting to save over $300 million annually [5] - The long-term impact of the tariff increase on metal stocks will depend on the sustainability of the tariffs, global market responses, and domestic production capabilities [6] - Diversification across sectors and stocks is emphasized as vital to mitigate concentration risk, with the Trefis High Quality (HQ) portfolio outperforming major indices with returns exceeding 91% since inception [7]

时局依然不稳！ 今天早上，全球市场全线杀跌。日经指数一度杀跌近1.5%，中国台湾股指大跌近1%，港股三大指数全线杀 跌，恒生科技指数一度杀跌近3%，A50跌幅亦明显扩大。与此同时，美股三大期指亦是集体杀跌。那么，究 竟又发生了什么？ 分析人士认为，可能有三大变数出现。 一是，关税方向， 除了欧洲发出征收报复性关税信号之外，据报道，美国众议院上周通过的美国总统特朗普 税务及开支法案，即《大而美法案》，内容包括大幅修改在美海外资本税务安排的条款，包括向外国在美资本 投资征收报复税收条款。 二是，俄乌方向， 在俄乌谈判之际，局势突然恶化。据乌克兰安全局消息人士称，乌克兰无人机1日袭击了多 个俄罗斯军用机场，其中包括位于西伯利亚东部深处的贝拉亚军事基地。包括A-50、图-95和图-22 M3在内的 40多架飞机在此次行动中受损，损失约为20亿美元。 全球股市再度进入到情绪低迷期。今天早上，亚太股市开盘，几乎是全线杀跌。其中，率先开盘的日本股市持 续走低，跌幅扩大至1.5%附近；中国台湾股市在低开之后，跌幅扩大至1%。 香港股市波动更大，恒生指数开盘报23043.10点。翰森制药跌超4%，比亚迪股份跌近3%，快手跌2. ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of Emirates Airlines stated that there has been no observed change in demand patterns due to tariff adjustments [1] Group 1 - Emirates Airlines has not seen any impact on demand as a result of tariff changes [1]

SHEIN's IPO Plans - SHEIN is reportedly planning to shift its IPO focus to Hong Kong, aiming to submit an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange soon and complete the IPO within the year [2] - The company's IPO journey has faced multiple setbacks since 2020, including a failed attempt to go public in the U.S. due to geopolitical changes and subsequent adjustments to its corporate structure [2][3] - In 2024, SHEIN's sales are projected to increase by nearly 40% to approximately $10 billion, with overall revenue growth expected to reach 19% to $38 billion, although profits are anticipated to be significantly lower than the company's expectations [3] Birkenstock's Price Increase - Birkenstock plans to raise global prices to offset the impact of a 10% tariff on EU goods imposed by the U.S., with some styles seeing price increases close to 10% [4] - The company reported a revenue of €574.3 million in Q2 2025, a 19% year-over-year increase, with the Americas market growing by 23% [5] - Birkenstock is expanding its presence in Asia, particularly in China, India, and the Middle East, with a focus on online retail [5] Walmart's Restructuring and Layoffs - Walmart plans to lay off approximately 1,500 employees as part of a restructuring effort to simplify operations and reduce costs, primarily affecting its global tech department and e-commerce fulfillment operations [6] - The company will raise prices on certain products starting at the end of May due to increased costs from tariffs, with CEO Doug McMillon stating that the company cannot absorb all tariff pressures [6] - This marks the second round of layoffs for Walmart in 2023, following earlier job cuts in February [6][7] Jacquemus Group Formation - French designer brand Jacquemus has established a holding company, Jacquemus La Maison Mère, marking its transition to a group structure [18] - The new company has an overall valuation of €576.1 million, following a strategic partnership with L'Oréal, which acquired a 10% minority stake in Jacquemus [18][19] Dior's Creative Director Resignation - Maria Grazia Chiuri has resigned as the artistic director of Dior's women's wear, ending speculation about her future [21] - Under her leadership, Dior's sales grew from €2.2 billion in 2017 to €9 billion in 2023, making it one of the fastest-growing brands in the luxury fashion sector [21] ELF Beauty's Acquisition - ELF Beauty announced the acquisition of Hailey Bieber's skincare brand, Rhode, for a total of $1 billion, marking the largest acquisition in ELF's 18-year history [24] - The deal will involve an initial payment of $800 million, with the remaining $200 million contingent on Rhode meeting specific revenue targets from 2025 to 2027 [25] POLA Group's Exit from China - POLA Group has announced the dissolution and liquidation of its wholly-owned subsidiary in China, raising concerns about the potential exit of its ORBIS brand from the Chinese market [26] - The subsidiary has experienced continuous declines in operating and net profits from 2022 to 2024, with 2024 revenue estimated at only 40 million RMB [26]

Core Viewpoint - The recent court ruling regarding tariffs has positively impacted consumer goods companies, particularly Kohl's, which reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings despite ongoing sales declines [1][6][10]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - A U.S. Court of International Trade ordered the lifting of certain tariffs imposed by President Trump, which has led to a positive reaction in the stock prices of consumer goods companies [1][2]. - Companies like Deckers Outdoor and Five Below saw stock increases of 1.9% and 2.6% respectively, while Kohl's stock rose by 4.3% [3][4]. Group 2: Kohl's Q1 Earnings - Kohl's reported a smaller-than-expected loss of $0.13 per share against an analyst forecast of a $0.22 loss, with sales reaching $3.1 billion [6][8]. - The company experienced a 4.1% decline in sales and a 3.9% decline in same-store sales, but managed to improve its gross margin by 37 basis points to 39.9% [7][8]. Group 3: Future Guidance - Kohl's forecasts a sales decline of 5% to 7% through the end of 2025, indicating worsening sales trends compared to the 4.1% decline reported in Q1 [9]. - The company expects to be profitable for the year, projecting earnings between $0.10 and $0.60 per share, which falls short of Wall Street's expectation of $0.67 [10]. Group 4: Stock Valuation - Kohl's stock is currently priced at approximately $8, translating to a valuation of 12.5 times analyst forecasts, which are likely to decrease in line with the new guidance [11]. - If Kohl's achieves the midpoint of its earnings guidance at $0.35 per share, the stock would be valued at around 24 times current-year earnings, which is considered too high given the declining sales and earnings [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $0.22, down from $0.88 in the previous year [29] - Total sales for Q1 2025 were $614.2 million, a decline of 6.8% year over year, which was below expectations of a 5% to 6% decline [26][27] - Consolidated gross margin decreased to 45.4%, down 150 basis points compared to last year [27] - Operating earnings were $12.2 million, resulting in an operating margin of 2% [28] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Brand Portfolio sales declined by 6.9%, with gross margin at 43.8%, down 280 basis points due to lower initial margins and higher markdown reserves [27][28] - Famous Footwear sales decreased by 6.3%, with comparable sales down 4.6%, but e-commerce sales increased by 2.5% [20][21] - The Brand Portfolio's lead brands, including Sam Edelman and Allen Edmonds, represented about 60% of sales and 80% of operating earnings [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Brand Portfolio gained market share in women's fashion footwear despite overall sales declines [11] - Famous Footwear gained 0.5 points of market share in shoe chains within the kids category [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to reduce SG&A expenses by $15 million annually through structural cuts [7][34] - An acquisition of Stuart Weitzman is expected to enhance the company's premium positioning and direct-to-consumer presence [19] - The company is focusing on optimizing sourcing strategies and managing inventory levels in response to tariff impacts [9][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a challenging operating environment and emphasized the need to drive growth and profitability [6][7] - There is cautious optimism regarding back-to-school preparations, with no major cancellations reported [40] - The company is suspending guidance due to the volatile environment but is seeing improving retail trends [33][34] Other Important Information - Inventory levels increased by 8.1% year over year, with a significant portion attributed to the upcoming launch of the Jordan brand [30] - Cash flow from operations was negative $5.7 million due to lower net income and higher inventory levels [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: How are you thinking about the prices of your portfolio brands moving into the summer and fall? - The company is making selective price increases, starting with fall receipts, and is managing this in real-time with key partners [38][39] Question: What adjustments are being made for the $15 million in strategic expense cutting? - The reductions are permanent and structural, expected to begin in the third quarter, with $7.5 million in savings for the back half of the year [43][44] Question: How is the Jordan launch performing? - Early trends for the Jordan launch are encouraging, with strong sell-throughs in men's and boys' categories [56][57] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on the business? - The company is managing tariff-related challenges through factory concessions and selective price increases, but the situation remains fluid [32][60] Question: How should we think about inventory reserves and customer credit issues moving forward? - The company believes it has adequately reserved for spring product markdowns and is closely monitoring customer credit ratings [62][63]