Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.0%, following a contraction of 0.5% in the previous quarter, exceeding the expected 2.6%[7] - However, the overall economic growth rate is projected to decline to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, significantly lower than the second half of 2024[7] - The domestic private final purchases (PDFP) growth has weakened, with Q1 revised down to 1.9% and Q2 at only 1.2%, indicating a decline in internal economic momentum[13] Federal Reserve Policy - Jerome Powell is characterized as a hawkish figure, prioritizing inflation risks over full employment, advocating for tighter monetary policy to suppress inflation[3] - The recent FOMC meeting saw two dissenting votes, marking a notable increase in opposition during Powell's tenure, reflecting the end of a "great moderation" era[5] - The removal of the phrase "uncertainty further reduced" from the Fed's statements suggests ongoing concerns about policy uncertainty, particularly related to Trump's administration[6] Risks and Challenges - Increased uncertainty in the Middle East could significantly raise oil prices, leading to higher inflation in the U.S. and complicating the Fed's rate-cutting decisions[4] - Trump's domestic policies may face greater resistance, potentially leading to increased fiscal stimulus and unexpected easing from the Fed[4] - Heightened volatility in U.S. financial markets could accelerate capital outflows and a decline in the dollar, risking a deeper recession[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's July FOMC meeting maintained the federal funds rate as expected, with two dissenters advocating a 25 - basis - point cut. Powell's hawkish stance reduced market expectations for a September rate cut, and after the meeting, yields on 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US bonds rose. The probabilities of rate cuts in September, October, and December dropped to 43%, 64%, and 87% respectively [3]. - The Fed will continue to be data - dependent, and its policy is in a "moderately restrictive" range. It will only shift to a more neutral stance when the risks to inflation and employment are "fully balanced," implying a greater focus on inflation currently. The Fed will make decisions based on future data and has left room to delay rate cuts [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Meeting Outcomes - The Fed's July FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4 - 1/4 to 4 - 1/2 percent. Governors Bowman and Waller voted against, preferring a 25 - basis - point rate cut, which was in line with their previous statements [3][8]. - After the meeting, yields on 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US bonds rose by 6, 5, and 2 basis points respectively. The probabilities of rate cuts in September, October, and December according to CME FedWatch dropped to 43%, 64%, and 87% respectively [3]. Powell's Press Conference Key Information Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell emphasized that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is in the early stage, with monthly tariff revenue reaching $30 billion, and only a small part borne by exporters. Upstream companies and retailers plan to pass on costs to consumers [5]. - He believed that there is still a long way to assess the full impact of tariffs, suggesting that there may not be a clear judgment even in September [5]. - He stated that the Fed "looking through" temporary inflation only means not raising rates, not a reason for rate cuts, and the Fed will ensure the "one - time" nature of the impact [5]. Labor Market - The labor market is robust but has downward risks. Although new job growth has slowed significantly, the unemployment rate is low, and indicators such as the quit rate and the ratio of job openings to the unemployed are relatively stable. However, the low unemployment rate is due to both a slowdown in labor demand and a reduction in labor supply caused by immigration policies [5]. Economic Growth - Powell downplayed the recognition of "moderate" economic growth slowdown in the meeting statement, saying that the weakening of GDP and final private consumption was in line with expectations. He reiterated that policy focuses on the dual goals of "inflation and employment," suggesting that as long as the job market is stable, the growth slowdown is not enough to trigger a policy shift [6]. Uncertainty - Powell thought the level of uncertainty was the same as in June. Although the current estimate of tariff levels has converged, future uncertainty is still high, and the meeting statement removed the expression of "reduced uncertainty" [6]. Inflation - Powell expected that excluding tariffs, current inflation remains above the 2% target. The composition of inflation pressure has changed, with sticky service inflation easing and tariff increases pushing up prices of some goods [6]. Fed Independence - Powell firmly stated that the Fed will not consider government fiscal needs to maintain its independence, warning that if the Fed loses independence, the government could manipulate rate cuts to influence elections [7]. Future Policy Outlook - The Fed will continue to be data - dependent, and its current policy is in a "moderately restrictive" range. It will only shift to a more neutral stance when the risks to inflation and employment are "fully balanced," implying a greater focus on inflation currently [7]. - There will be two rounds of employment and inflation data before September, and the Fed will make decisions based on future data, leaving room to delay rate cuts [7]. Suggestions - Powell's statements seem to be somewhat inconsistent with the economic assessment in the FOMC statement. It is recommended to follow the statements of other voting members to determine if this reflects the overall tendency of the committee [7]. - Powell's avoidance of giving a September rate - cut guidance may trigger stronger pressure from the Trump administration [7].

金十数据7月31日讯，Van Lanschot Kempen投资策略师Joost Van Leenders在一份报告中表示，美联储周 三决定维持利率不变后，9月份降息的门槛已经提高，尽管有两名反对者投票赞成降息25个基点。这位 资深投资策略师说，美联储将获得两轮通胀和就业数据，但这些数据的变化不大可能大到需要降息的程 度。他说，要降息，通胀应该向美联储2%的目标缓和，但鉴于我们预计的进口关税传导效应，这种情 况实现的可能性极低。另一种情况是，劳动力市场需要大幅走弱。 机构：美联储9月份降息的门槛已经提高 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, under Chairman Powell, is facing uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, with two distinct scenarios being considered: one indicating potential economic weakness hidden beneath stable data, and the other suggesting resilience driven by AI investments and household wealth growth [1][4][6] - The current low unemployment rate of 4.1% may create a false sense of security about the job market, as there are signs of a weakening labor market, including a high number of workers not seeing wage growth and a decline in consumer spending on non-essential items [2][3][4] - Consumer spending is shifting, with reductions in travel and dining expenses, while essential costs like housing continue to rise, indicating a potential strain on the economy [3][4] Group 2 - There is a contrasting view that the warning signals regarding the economy may be overstated, with key factors such as AI investment and wealth accumulation potentially offsetting negative trends [4][5] - Economic challenges have persisted, including rapid interest rate hikes and regional banking crises, but some analysts believe that unless unforeseen shocks occur, a comprehensive recession is unlikely [5][6] - The Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious approach, keeping options open for future rate decisions while monitoring the impact of tariffs and other economic factors [6][8]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Stance - Federal Reserve continues to pause interest rate cuts, indicating a shift from "economic activity continues to expand steadily" to "economic activity growth has slowed in the first half of the year" [1] - Powell's hawkish stance suggests that asserting a rate cut in September is premature, with inflation outlook showing mixed signals [1] - Market's expectation for rate cuts has retracted by 10 basis points, with the CME FedWatch indicating a drop from 45 basis points to 35 basis points for the year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Labor market indicators such as turnover rates, job vacancies, and unemployment rates are close to levels from a year ago, indicating no significant weakness [1] - Employment creation and labor supply are slowing, presenting downside risks to the labor market [1] - The market is now leaning towards a single rate cut for the year, with expectations for a potential shift towards rate cut anticipation in August if tariff impacts on inflation remain manageable [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the US dollar index rose approximately 0.5%, nearing 100, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased from 4.34% to around 4.38% [1] - The market's confidence in a rate cut in October has decreased to about 80% following the meeting [1] - The overall economic data rebound and retraction of rate cut expectations are expected to support the dollar, although future agreements remain uncertain [2]

2025.07.31 本文字数：2232，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 美联储重申等待关税影响明朗化 决议声明称，尽管净出口的波动影响了数据，但最近的指标表明，经济活动继续以稳健的速度扩张。失 业率仍然很低，劳动力市场状况稳健，通货膨胀率有所上升。 FOMC重申，寻求在长期内实现最大就业率和2%的通货膨胀率。经济前景的不确定性有所增加，委员 会关注其双重任务的双向风险。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示，今年上半年经济增长有所放缓，但美联储完全有能力应对 潜在的发展。"与去年的2.5%相比，2025年上半年的增长放缓至1.2%。增长放缓主要反映了消费支出的 放缓。"美联储主席表示，"我们认为，目前的货币政策立场使我们能够及时应对潜在的经济发展。" 谈及关税的影响，美联储主席表示，"更高的关税已经开始体现在一些商品的价格上，但对经济活动和 通货膨胀的总体影响还有待观察。" 鲍威尔认为，一个合理的基本情况可能是，对通胀的影响将是短期的。但他也警告说，征税可能会导致 更持久的通胀变化，"我们的义务是保持长期通胀预期稳定，防止价格水平的一次性上涨成为持续的通 胀问题。" 北京时间7月31日凌晨2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that the labor market remains close to full employment [1] Group 1 - The labor market conditions indicate a strong employment situation, suggesting that the economy is performing well [1] - The statement reflects confidence in the current economic recovery and stability within the job market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming data over the next two months will be crucial for economic outlook, particularly regarding inflation and labor market trends, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - Ashish Shah from Goldman Sachs Asset Management suggests that if inflation caused by tariffs is milder than expected, or if there are signs of a weakening labor market, the Federal Reserve may resume its easing cycle in the fall [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to rely on data in its next meeting to determine interest rate decisions, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] Group 1 - For the Fed to lower interest rates, it must either be confident that inflation increases will be temporary and mild, or believe that inflation will continue to decline in the coming months and quarters [1] - This assessment assumes that there will not be a significant deterioration in the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming data over the next two months will be crucial for economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy decisions [1] Group 1 - If inflation caused by tariffs is milder than expected, or if there are signs of a weakening labor market, the Federal Reserve is likely to resume easing measures in the fall [1]