Core Insights - The upcoming New Year's holiday in 2026 is expected to significantly boost consumer spending and travel, characterized by increased bookings and diverse travel options [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The search interest for keywords related to the New Year holiday has surged over 280% month-on-month, with overall booking heat for major travel products up nearly 30% compared to the same period last year [2] - The demand for high-quality experiences is evident, with the average spending of the "post-90s" demographic increasing by 17%, while bookings from the "post-05" age group have skyrocketed by 130% [2] Group 2: Travel Preferences - Northern and Southern themed travel is thriving, with ice and snow tourism being particularly popular, as seen in Harbin's sold-out tickets for its ice festival [3] - The demand for warm-weather destinations in the South is also high, creating a dynamic travel pattern between the North and South [3] Group 3: Economic Impact - The "performing arts economy" is driving significant consumer spending, with cities like Nanning experiencing a 17-fold increase in hotel bookings due to a star-studded New Year's concert [3] - The pursuit of "ceremonial consumption" has led to a rise in unique experiences, with searches for events like New Year's fireworks and concerts increasing over 500% [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The surge in consumer activity is attributed to optimized holiday policies, released consumer demand, and innovative supply-side strategies, with a 90% booking rate for New Year-related products [4] - The changing consumer preferences reflect a shift towards emotional experiences and social value, prompting suppliers to innovate from standardized products to personalized offerings [4] - The 2026 New Year holiday is anticipated to mark a strong start for the consumer market, showcasing a diverse and quality-driven consumption landscape [4]

临近年末，多地商业"新地标"陆续进入公众视野。 北京中关村大融城东区近日正式开业，补齐了区域内的品牌商品消费供给，同时，位于通州区的莲花 荟、湾里将于年内正式开业运营，发力年末消费旺季；位于成都天府新区的成都湾悦城近日正式焕新开 业，以"城南活力家庭悦聚场"的全新定位，以及总体量达14.4万平方米的商业空间向市民敞开大门；重 庆奉节首座一站式大型购物中心重庆奉节万达广场近日盛大开业，预计将成为奉节建设区域性消费中心 城市的关键引擎。 "'新地标'作为城市更新的重要载体，既拉动基建投资，又通过新场景激活消费，有望成为经济增长的 新支点。"付一夫表示，同时，城市商业进入差异化竞争阶段，各地不再局限于传统购物中心，而是结 合文化、科技打造特色场景，凸显城市商业能级提升诉求。 郭一鸣认为，这些商业"新地标"通过提供多元业态和沉浸式体验，能有效聚集人气，直接带动零售、餐 饮、文娱等消费，并借助首店经济培育新的消费增长点，促进消费扩容与结构升级。 "各地上新'新地标'对促消费的助益集中体现在三方面。"付一夫分析，一是丰富消费供给，高比例首店 与多元业态填补区域消费空白，满足个性化、多元化需求；二是创造消费场景，通过商文旅 ...

北京商报讯（记者 翟枫瑞）12月24日，装修建材板块小幅增长，以16406.45点收盘，涨幅为0.85%。在 板块带动下，多只装修建材股股价实现增长。濮耐股份以6.05元/股收盘，涨幅为5.58%，领涨装修建材 股。*ST松发以85.01元/股收盘，涨幅为5.00%，涨幅位列装修建材股第二。*ST亚振以40.95元/股收盘， 涨幅为5.00%，涨幅位列装修建材股第三。除此之外，皮阿诺以21.88元/股收盘，跌幅为4.04%，领跌装 修建材股。瑞泰科技以18.85元/股收盘，跌幅为2.94%，跌幅位列装修建材股第二。恒林股份以32.16元/ 股收盘，跌幅为1.05%，跌幅位列装修建材股第三。 中国银河在研报中表示，消费、投资共同发力扩内需，消费升级推动建材高品质转型。消费端，中央经 济工作会议提到，2026年要"深入实施提振消费专项行动，清理消费领域不合理限制措施"，与十五五规 划建议稿中提到的"清理汽车、住房等消费不合理"相呼应，预计26年各地区居民住房限购政策将逐步放 开，家装市场回暖预期增强，有望带动消费建材需求恢复。 ...

专题：2025基金行业年终大盘点：公募规模近36万亿元，主动权益重夺主场，"冠军基"揭榜倒计时 2025年市场走出了一轮慢牛长行情，上证指数一度突破4000点关口。尽管年底出现一定回调，但市场整体上行趋势已经确立。我认为，4000点并非这轮行情 的终点，而是2025年行情的新起点，也是本轮慢牛长期行情的中继。如果说4000点之前属于牛市的上半场，那么2026年市场将逐步进入牛市的下半场，赚钱 效应有望进一步提升。 我每年年底都会发布下一年度的"十大预言"。去年底发布的2025年十大预言，目前回头看已基本得到完美验证。其中包括：美联储延续降息周期、美国经济 增速放缓、美元指数逐步回落、人民币升值、美股结构性风险加大，以及A股和港股走出牛市走势等。去年底多数投资者对2025年行情较为悲观，我则保持 了相对乐观的看法。 关于国际金价，去年底金价处于2900美元/盎司时，不少投资者担心金价可能下跌。我在预言中强调，黄金长期上涨的逻辑在于美元长期超发，其对黄金的 贬值是必然趋势，因此金价长期上涨趋势不变，未来突破5000美元甚至10000美元/盎司只是时间问题。这一观点曾登上热搜。今年以来，国际金价已突破 4400美元 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of "domestic demand as the main driver" for economic growth, marking a strategic shift in focus from merely stimulating consumption to prioritizing it as a long-term economic engine [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance - In 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods showed a steady increase, with a year-on-year growth of 4% from January to November, surpassing both the previous year's growth and the overall annual level [3]. - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the previous year, solidifying consumption's role as the primary driver of economic growth [3]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The government implemented a comprehensive set of policies to boost consumption, including initiatives for replacing old consumer goods and expanding service consumption, which collectively injected significant momentum into the market [4]. - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods was expanded to cover various sectors, leading to over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting more than 360 million people [4]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - There was a notable shift in consumer behavior towards experience-based consumption, with a blend of online and offline shopping environments enhancing market vitality [5][6]. - New consumption models, such as instant retail and live-streaming e-commerce, gained traction, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that with ongoing employment stabilization and income growth measures, along with an expanding supply of quality goods, the potential of China's consumption market will continue to be unleashed, supporting sustained economic progress [8].

让有消费能力的群体带头消费，政策引导与边界界定缺一不可。习近平总书记指出："要有序取消一些 行政性限制消费购买的规定，释放消费潜力。"这需要政策、制度甚至法律层面精准发力，体现包容、 合理。当然，这些既要为消费"松绑"，又要划清"红线"。必须严格区分合理消费与铺张浪费、个人消费 与公款消费的本质区别，在鼓励品质消费、多渠道消费、适度超前消费的同时，又坚守纪律底线，杜绝 公款消费和奢靡之风。近年来，多地实践证明政策"松绑"的有效性：重庆破除二手车流通堵点卡点，海 南公开征集消费限制优化建议，北京定向增发新能源小客车指标等，这些举措都有效激活了相关领域消 费潜力。此外，要完善消费维权机制，优化消费环境，让有消费能力的群体"能消费、敢消费、愿消 费"，推动形成全社会消费升级的良好氛围。 长期以来，全球经济发达体在经济承压时，无不通过引导消费稳增长。如公职人员带薪休假，以及各地 创新假期制度的推行，就展现了显著的带动效果：如今年黄山等地针对"秋假"推出免门票活动，成功将 传统旅游淡季转化为消费旺季；北方地区同步探索"雪假"模式，吉林的"雪假"首日，重点冰雪场所接待 游客超5万人次，部分景区客流量同比翻倍。这些数据生动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of domestic demand is a strategic move for economic stability and security, emphasized by the central economic work conference, which prioritizes building a strong domestic market for the upcoming year [1]. Investment Perspective - Investment in traditional sectors is weakening, while high-tech industries are experiencing rapid growth. There remains significant investment potential in areas such as technological innovation, industrial upgrades, urban renewal, rural infrastructure, and public services [1]. - The investment structure needs optimization to adapt to changing economic development stages, focusing on human resource development, increasing government investment in livelihood projects, and enhancing investment in technology and low-carbon transition [2][4]. Consumption Perspective - Service retail sales have shown improvement, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% in the first 11 months of the year. The potential for consumption will be further released through urban and rural income increase plans and special actions to boost consumption [1]. - The current consumer spending rate in China is 39.9%, which is still 10-30 percentage points lower than that of developed countries, indicating room for growth in service consumption [2]. Structural Challenges - The supply side shows saturation in goods consumption, while service consumption is on the rise. There is a need for high-quality and diversified service supply, which requires easing entry restrictions and rationalizing service pricing to attract more social capital [3]. Long-term Strategy - A combination of short-term policies and long-term institutional construction is necessary to create a sustainable mechanism for expanding domestic demand and addressing deep-seated issues related to insufficient demand and weak consumption [4]. - The urbanization of agricultural migrants is highlighted as a key strategy for boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, necessitating effective public service provision and incentives for local governments [4].

对话人： 李 拯 本报评论员 王一鸣 中国国际经济交流中心副理事长 李拯：激发民间投资积极性，才能更好激活经济内生动力。如何以政府投资撬动更多民间投资？ 王一鸣：民间投资占固定资产投资一半左右，是推动投资止跌回稳的重要力量。激发民间投资积极性， 既要落实短期政策，也要重视制度建设。一方面，要完善公平竞争的市场环境，进一步打通制约民间投 资的堵点卡点，支持民营企业参与铁路、核电等领域重大项目，引导民间投资向高技术、服务业等新赛 道拓展，激发民间投资活力。另一方面，要营造法治化营商环境，保护民营企业和民营企业家合法权 益，持续加力解决拖欠民营企业账款问题，坚决防止违规异地执法和趋利性执法，以更实举措增强民间 投资信心。 李拯：2024年我国居民消费率为39.9%，与发达国家相比仍有约10—30个百分点的差距，特别是服务消 费占比偏低。提振消费，还有哪些短板要补、哪些增量可挖？ 王一鸣："十五五"规划建议把"居民消费率明显提高"列为经济社会发展的主要目标之一。从需求侧看， 我国人均国内生产总值（GDP）已超过1.3万美元，正处在消费结构转型升级阶段，即生存型消费占比 下降，发展型消费占比提高。发展型消费如教育、健康 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese government aims for stable growth in transportation indicators by 2025, with expected fixed asset investment exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan, and significant expansions in high-speed rail, highways, and airports [1] Group 1: Transportation Development Goals - By 2025, the total inter-regional passenger flow is projected to exceed 66 billion trips, with freight volume surpassing 5.8 billion tons, both showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 3.5% [1] - Port foreign trade container throughput is expected to grow by about 9.6%, while international air freight is anticipated to increase by 20%, and express delivery volume is projected to rise by around 13.5% [1] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Initiatives - The government is focusing on boosting consumption, with specific actions to enhance consumer spending being a key initiative [1] - The yacht and cruise consumption sector is identified as a growth point, with new yacht registrations increasing at an annual rate of over 40% in the past three years, indicating a shift towards mass consumption [1] Group 3: Small and Micro Car Rental Market - The small and micro car rental market has seen explosive growth, with a total of 4 million small passenger cars currently in operation, and an expected annual growth rate of around 15% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - The transportation department plans to address current challenges in the small car rental market by enhancing vehicle supply during peak times and optimizing rental operations at transportation hubs [2] Group 4: Major Infrastructure Projects - Significant infrastructure projects such as the Lion's Mouth Channel and Zhangjingao Yangtze River Bridge are set to be completed during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on enhancing transportation integration and safety [3] - Future transportation investments will prioritize highway construction and upgrades in economically developed regions, while railway investments will focus on network reinforcement and smart upgrades [3]

Core Insights - The 27th Shanghai International Gifts, Cultural Products, and Home Goods Exhibition will be held in June 2026, focusing on the development trends of gift enterprises in East China and addressing challenges such as customer acquisition and sales channels [1][3]. Group 1: Exhibition Overview - The exhibition will feature eight thematic areas, showcasing the diverse ecosystem and cutting-edge trends in the Chinese gift industry, emphasizing "innovation, quality, and individuality" [3]. - Key thematic areas include Business Gifts, National Trend Cultural Products, Home Goods, Internet Celebrity Selections, 3C Consumer Electronics, Gift Food Boxes, Gift Packaging, and AI Technology Products [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Innovations - The gift industry is undergoing a transformation from a "function-oriented" approach to one that emphasizes "emotional value and personalized experiences," driven by consumption upgrades and AI digitalization [6]. - The exhibition will promote innovation through three dimensions: product innovation, model innovation, and technology integration, including the use of AR and AI tools [6]. Group 3: Market Potential - The Chinese gift market is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026, with East China being a key battleground for national gift brands [9]. - Future competitiveness in the gift industry will focus on customization capabilities, sustainability, emotional connections, and integrated multi-channel marketing [9][10]. Group 4: Strategic Importance - The exhibition serves as a strategic platform for companies to capture opportunities in the trillion-yuan gift market and link to future growth engines [10][12]. - It aims to reflect the evolution of Chinese consumption and industry, merging tradition with trends and fostering a collaborative environment for innovation [12].