Core Insights - Small businesses in the U.S. are experiencing a decline in confidence due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, leading to cautious hiring and investment decisions [1] Group 1: Small Business Sentiment - The NFIB's monthly survey indicates that small business sentiment fell below the long-term average for the first time since Trump's election, reflecting concerns over the impact of tariff policies [1] - Analyst Oliver Allen suggests that small businesses are likely to further cut back on hiring and investment plans in the coming months due to uncertainty surrounding the tariff impacts [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The potential downturn in the job market caused by these tariff-related challenges may help alleviate wage pressures on inflation, which is seen as a glimmer of hope for the Federal Reserve [1]

期货研究报告|原油月报 2025-04-06 特朗普关税与欧佩克加快增产推动油价回落 研究院 能源化工组 研究员 潘翔 0755-82767160 panxiang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3023104 投资咨询号：Z0013188 康远宁 0755-23991175 kangyuanning@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 核心观点 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 ■ 市场分析 4 月 2 日，特朗普正式公布了其关税政策，加征关税的范围以及力度均超出市场预期， 全球经济增长与国际贸易面临巨大的不确定性，市场担忧增加导致金融市场出现剧烈 反应，美股、原油、铜、白银等风险资产均遭到大幅抛售，油价连续两个交易日跌幅 超过 10%。除此之外，在 4 月 2 日的同一天，欧佩克宣布将在 5 月份加快增产，当月 实施 41.1 万桶/日的产量配额调整，这相当于原计划每月增产 13.8 万桶/日的三倍，沙 特与欧佩克的突然转向也让市场措手不及，加剧了油价下行压力。两个事件表面上毫 无关联，但不能排除特朗普为了 ...

从3月表现来看，现货黄金继续今年以来亮眼表现，累计涨幅超过9%，已经连续三个月收涨，且今年一 季度涨幅超18%，创下1986年以来最佳季度表现，主要得益于特朗普政府的关税不确定性以及经济增长 担忧，促使资金涌入黄金避险。 本周，市场最关注的事件当属4·2对等关税日。如果没有预期的那么严重，那么黄金可能会开始回落， 因为高位获利回吐可能会被触发。此外，投资者还需要关注周五4月4日出炉的美国非农就业报告，这将 影响美联储的降息预期。如果就业市场恶化，将会支撑美联储进一步的降息行动，从而影响黄金价格。 技术面来看，日线图显示，14日相对强弱指数(RSI)进入高度超买区域，使得多头保持谨慎。不过，黄 金目前处于上升通道内，支持长期看涨倾向。4小时图显示，在持续大涨之后，技术指标进入超买区 间，或暗示金价短线将迎来技术性调整。 截至3月31日，全球最大的黄金ETFSPDR GoldTrust持仓量为933.38吨，较前一个交易日增加1.44吨。3 月31日，现货黄金飙涨40美元，盘中接连突破3100、3110、3120美元/盎司关口，最高触及31278.26美 元/盎司，继续刷新纪录高位，收盘仍然位于3120关口上方， ...

近期，A股及海外市场面临多重潜在风险，投资者需高度关注。从国内经济数据到公司经营状况，再到 国际经济环境的变化，市场不确定性显著增加。本文将围绕退市风险警示、股份减持计划、猪价波动以 及国际经济信息展开分析，为投资者提供风险提示。 退市风险警示频现，多家公司面临压力 退市风险警示不仅影响公司股价，还可能引发市场对A股整体健康状况的担忧。近年来，汇金科技业绩 持续下滑，2021年至2023年营收逐年下降，归母净利润已连续七年同比下滑。公司表示，亏损主要受银 行自助设备现金管理系统销量下降及市场竞争加剧影响。 股份减持计划密集，市场信心受挫 股份减持计划也成为市场关注的焦点。嘉和美康、红旗连锁（002697）、联合水务（603291）等多家公 司股东宣布减持计划，合计减持比例从1%至4.5%不等。股东减持通常被视为对公司未来前景的负面信 号，尤其是在当前经济环境下，更容易影响投资者信心。 猪价波动对养殖行业影响显著，尤其是中小型养殖企业可能面临更大的经营压力。投资者需关注相关企 业的财务状况及应对策略，以规避潜在风险。 国际经济环境动荡，美股大幅收跌 海外市场方面，美股近期表现不佳。上周五，美股三大指数均大幅收跌 ...

德国财政政策迎重大转折。 当地时间3月22日，德国总统施泰因迈尔正式签署《基本法》修正案，为德国政府通过新增债务融资的庞大财政方案扫清了最后一道障碍。这项巨额财政计划 将为国防、基础设施和气候投资提供数千亿欧元资金。分析认为，今年屡创新高的德国股市，有望延续升势；而欧洲资产也有望继续受到投资者追捧。 STOXX50指数、德国DAX指数和法国CAC40指数走势（2025年） | 14 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 10 31 | 1 | 1 | 德国财政迎来重大转折 在德国联邦议院和联邦参议院先后于3月18日和3月21日批准后，施泰因迈尔于法案通过的第二天迅速完成了签署程序。根据总统府当天发布的声明，该法案 现在只需在《联邦法律公报》上公布，即可正式生效，进入执行阶段。 这一决定标志着德国财政政策迎来重大转折。 中信建投的报告认为，本轮财政将显著拉动德国GDP。在激进情形下，假设德国基础设施投资乘数1.5，国防支出投资乘数为0.6，州财政乘数为0.69。预计 2026年财政扩张对德国GDP拉动1.81%，德国进口增长5.14%。而在保守情形下，即财政支出乘数效应 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the U.S. deficit and regional conflicts are driving price increases, with a focus on investment opportunities in gold and minor metals [14]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $307 billion in February, a 4% year-on-year increase, raising inflation concerns and pushing COMEX gold prices above $3,000 per ounce, marking a historical high [14]. - The conflict in eastern Congo has led to the suspension of operations at a major tin mine, causing tin prices to surge to $37,000 per ton, the highest since June 2022 [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The consumption of rebar increased to 2.33 million tons, a 5.84% week-on-week rise, while the overall price index for common steel saw a slight increase of 0.29% [15][40]. - The average daily pig iron production among 247 steel companies was 230.59 thousand tons, showing a minimal increase of 0.03% [25]. - The report indicates a slight decrease in the profitability of long and short process rebar production, with long process margins down by 22 CNY/ton and short process margins down by 16 CNY/ton [37]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that the TC/RC negative values are deepening, suggesting a potential for continued copper price increases, with LME aluminum prices rising to $2,713 per ton, a 0.74% week-on-week increase [17]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for copper is expected to grow due to sectors like photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI [17]. Precious Metals - The COMEX gold price reached $2,993.6 per ounce, reflecting a significant week-on-week increase of 2.60%, with a notable decrease in non-commercial net long positions [17]. - The report suggests that tariffs may continue to elevate demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, indicating a favorable outlook for gold investments [17]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights a significant increase in China's lithium carbonate production in January 2025, which rose by 32.55% year-on-year, while nickel production saw a notable decline of 13.32% [46][48]. - The demand for new energy vehicles in China surged, with January 2025 production reaching 965,900 units, a 27.85% year-on-year increase [50].

Core Viewpoint - The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Cape Town is addressing the challenges of differentiated growth, inflation pressures, and debt restructuring, with significant implications for global economic stability [3]. Group 1: Meeting Background and Strategic Significance - The G20 represents 85% of global GDP and 80% of trade, making its policy coordination crucial for global economic stability [3]. - Since the 2008 financial crisis, the G20 has taken actions such as crisis response, coordinated monetary policies, and debt relief initiatives to mitigate systemic risks [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Landscape Analysis - The global economy is experiencing a "three-speed" growth pattern, with widening growth disparities among developed economies, emerging markets, and vulnerable countries [4]. - Economic growth forecasts for 2024 show varied rates: - Developed economies: - USA: 2.8% driven by service sector resilience and AI investments [4] - Eurozone: 0.4% influenced by falling energy prices [4] - Japan: 1.2% due to yen depreciation boosting exports [4] - Emerging markets: - India: 5.6% supported by infrastructure investment and digital payments [4] - Brazil: 1.4% with iron ore export recovery [4] - Southeast Asia: 4.1% from the shift in electronic manufacturing [4] - Vulnerable economies: - Sub-Saharan Africa: 3.0% driven by mineral development investments [4] Group 3: Monetary Policy Divergence - Major central banks are exhibiting divergent policy stances, leading to increased market volatility [5]. - The Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate of 5.5% while accelerating balance sheet reduction, impacting global liquidity [6]. - The European Central Bank has initiated a rate cut cycle while engaging in quantitative tightening [6]. - Japan has exited negative interest rates, raising its policy rate to 0.1% [6]. Group 4: Key Issues and Potential Breakthroughs - The meeting will focus on global trade rule restructuring, particularly regarding digital taxes and supply chain security [6]. - There are ongoing disputes over digital service taxes, with the EU proposing a 7% global minimum tax on large tech firms [6]. - The potential for a multilateral agreement on mineral supply chain security is being discussed, given China's dominance in rare earth processing [6]. Group 5: Debt Restructuring Mechanisms - The meeting may lead to innovative approaches to debt restructuring, addressing the rising debt-to-GDP ratios in various countries [7]. - The U.S. has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 132%, Japan at 263%, and Italy at 152% [6]. Group 6: Market Impact Projections - If consensus on currency intervention is reached, the U.S. dollar index may decline from 104 to 100, enhancing arbitrage opportunities for emerging market currencies [13]. - A successful sovereign debt restructuring could lead to a rebound in bond prices for defaulting nations [13]. - The establishment of a unified green finance standard could direct over $500 billion annually towards renewable energy infrastructure [13].