策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 24 日 策略点评 静待"击球点" 市场若因中东局势出现显著调整，快线指标或有望发出新一轮加仓信号。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 据央视新闻报道，当地时间 6 月 21 日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒 体上发文称，美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设 施的袭击。 自 6 月 13 日以色列对伊朗发动军事行动以来，由于此前冲突范围限定在 两国内，冲突虽持续，但以国际金价衡量的冲突烈度并未有显著失控， 截至 6 月 20 日，布伦特原油期货价格较冲突前明显上涨，COMEX 黄金 期货价格区间涨幅接近持平。 但本次美国军事行动的发起，或再度引发市场担忧，包括但不限于核 设施被攻击后伊朗的潜在报复行动及后续霍尔木兹海峡潜在的被封 锁可能。 我们认为对 A 股当前的风险偏好下修风险仍然可控，逻辑条件来看，美 国袭击伊朗核设施后，6 月 22 日中东股市全线高开，从通胀（油 ...

Group 1 - Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Control Co., Ltd. successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 23, 2023, marking the seventh A-share company to do so this year, with over 60 more A-share companies planning to list in Hong Kong [1][2] - The IPO market in Hong Kong has seen a dual-engine growth of "new consumption + hard technology," with 35 companies listed and a total fundraising amount of approximately 996.99 billion HKD as of June 23, 2023 [2] - The listing of A-share companies in Hong Kong has been supported by regulatory measures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which have optimized the approval process and provided tailored services for technology companies [2][4] Group 2 - Unlike previous trends where H-share prices were lower than A-share prices, some A-share companies now have H-share prices exceeding A-share prices, boosting confidence in listing in Hong Kong [3] - The global strategy is a significant reason for A-share companies planning to list in Hong Kong, with many companies aiming to utilize international financing tools to support their global expansion [4] - The improvement in liquidity in the Hong Kong market has attracted A-share companies, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 240 billion HKD from early 2025 to June 20, 2023, representing a more than 17-fold increase since 2000 [4][5] Group 3 - Southbound capital has continuously flowed into the Hong Kong stock market, with a net inflow of approximately 7054.87 billion HKD in 2023, providing significant support to the market [5] - A-share companies listing in Hong Kong can enhance their cash reserves, which is strategically valuable in managing market volatility and seizing investment opportunities [5]

2025.06. 23 本文字数：2223，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 周楠 A股市场迎来一波"红包雨"，就在本周，超三百家上市公司的年报分红到账。 Wind统计显示，6月23日至6月27日（统计期间，下同），牧原股份（002714.SZ）、贵州茅台 （600519.SH）等约350家A股公司，将实施年报分红派息，分红总额合计超2050亿元。其中，发 出百亿"现金红包"的有中国石油（601857.SH）、中远海控（601919.SH）等。 政策引导之下，前期，今年年报季里，千余家A股公司披露分红预案。年报季收官之后，这些分红承 诺陆续得到兑现。本月以来，年报分红派息步入实施高峰期，数据显示，月内已有超1200家A股公 司完成派息。 除此之外，周内实施派息的公司中，海大集团（002311.SZ）、中国国贸（600007.SH）等每股派 息金额，也均超过1元。 哪些公司将大额分红？统计期间，中国石油将派发的"现金红包"最大，分红总额457.55亿元。紧随其 后，还有3家公司分红总额超过百亿，为贵州茅台（346.71亿元）、中远海控（159.54亿元）和陕 西煤业（110.14亿元）。 部分行业龙头的 ...

Market Overview - On June 23, the A-share market opened lower but rose slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3348 points and closing at 3381.58 points, up 0.65%[4][9]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,048.39 points, up 0.43%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.39%[10][9]. - Total trading volume for both markets reached 11,471 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[4][17]. Sector Performance - Strong performers included banking, software development, semiconductors, and energy metals, while sectors like liquor, aviation, engineering machinery, and electricity showed weaker performance[4][9]. - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets rose, with notable gains in energy metals, shipping ports, and software development[9]. Valuation and Investment Strategy - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 13.85 times and 36.04 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[4][17]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in software development, semiconductors, banking, and chemical pharmaceuticals in the short term[4][17]. Economic Context - China's economy continues to show moderate recovery, driven by consumption and investment, with long-term capital inflows increasing and ETF sizes growing steadily[4][17]. - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, but uncertainty remains regarding future rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite[4][17]. Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and geopolitical tensions affecting global trade and energy supplies[5][4].

Market Performance - The A-share market showed resilience despite external negative factors, with a notable rebound after a half-month decline [1] - The market opened lower but gradually rose throughout the day, supported by various sectors, although blue-chip stocks did not participate in the rally [1] Volume and Technical Indicators - The trading volume increased by 60 billion compared to the previous Friday, but this was insufficient to support a broad-based rally among 4,400 stocks [1] - The market's rebound did not surpass the 5-day moving average, indicating a lack of strength and uncertainty about stabilization at this level [1] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The recent price action has been characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish signals, with upward movements occurring amidst a series of downward trends [2] - The presence of bullish candles within a downtrend can mislead investors, leading to potential losses if the market reverses again [2] - A cautious approach is advised, with a focus on waiting for stronger volume and confirmation of upward momentum before entering the market [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market demonstrated strong internal resilience with a low opening and high closing amid escalating overseas geopolitical conflicts [1] - The trading volume of the CSI A500 ETF (563360) reached 812 million yuan, a nearly 150% increase compared to the previous trading day's 325 million yuan [1] - CITIC Securities indicated that core assets have a significant relative profitability advantage and strong operational resilience, with a profit inflection point appearing ahead of the overall A-share market [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 Index, tracked by the CSI A500 ETF (563360), consists of 500 leading stocks in the A-share market, with the top five sectors being electronics, banking, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage [1] - The management fee and custody fee for the CSI A500 ETF (563360) are 0.15% and 0.05% per year, respectively, which are among the lowest in the market for stock ETFs [1] - Huatai-PB Fund, the manager of the CSI A500 ETF (563360), is one of the first ETF managers in China with over 18 years of experience, managing the largest ETF in the A-share market, the CSI 300 ETF (510300) [1]

2025 年 06 月 23 日 一周市场回顾 证券研究报告-一周市场回顾 分析师：马遥识途 资格证书：S1330524050001 联系邮箱：mayst@hxzb.cn 联系电话：15201282186 相关研究 一周市场回顾 （ 2025.06.09 — 2025.06.13） 2025.06.16 一周市场回顾 （ 2025.06.03 — 2025.06.06） 2025.06.09 融资融券： 市 场 研 究 · 一 周 市 场 回 顾 · 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 1 / 7 一周市场回顾 （2025.06.16—2025.06.20） 一周市场回顾 （ 2025.05.26 — 2025.05.30） 2025.06.03 本周 A 股上证指数下跌 0.51%，收于 3359.90 点，深证成指下跌 1.16%，收于 10005.03 点，创业板指下跌 1.66%，收于 2009.89 点。 价值风格类板块代表指数上证 50、中证 100、沪深 300 分别下跌 0.10%、下跌 0.68%、下跌 0.45%，成长风格类板块代表指数中小 100、中证 500、中证 1 ...

发布时间：2025-06-23 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《震荡仍是主旋律，等待内部政策窗口 期》 - 2025.06.16 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 策略观点 短期地缘冲突逆风延续，A 股面临压力 ⚫ 投资要点 本周 A 股受外围地缘政治冲突影响表现不佳。本周主要股指全数 下跌，其中高股息大市值个股占比高的上证 50 微跌 0.10%表现最佳， 其余权重指数跌幅亦较小，科创 50、创业板指、中证 1000 和中证 500 跌幅较大。行业层面，外围地缘冲突影响下市场风偏趋于谨慎。本周 申万一级行业中仅有银行、通信和电子有正收益，在伊以冲突延续并 有烈度增强迹象的背景下，A 股在下半周避险情绪显著升温，快速切 向以银行为代表的高股息板块进行防御。 A 股个人投资者情绪指数再跌入 ...

半 n 市 场 与 周一还将有1000亿元国库现金定存到期。央行行长潘功胜表示,过去 年,央行坚持稳健的货币政策立场,从量价结构等多维度实施多项举 措,有效支持经济持续回升向好,维护金融市场稳定。同时,央行着力 完善货币政策框架:优化中间变量、培育政策利率、提升传导效率、丰富 政策工具箱并加强沟通与预期引导。货币政策框架转型是一个渐进持续 的过程,未来将持续评估并完善。 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 3847 | 0.09 | IF当月 | 3804 | 0.2 | | 上证50 | 2674 | 0.31 | IH当月 | 2637 | 0.6 | | 中证500 | 5640 | -0.66 | IC当月 | 5588 | -0.5 | | 中证1000 | 6000 | -0.80 | IM当月 | રેત્રેર | -0.6 | | IF成交量 | 93277 | -20.6 | IF持仓量 | 213382 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market in China has experienced a significant bubble, with property prices in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen reaching a price-to-income ratio of 40 times, indicating potential for further price declines [1][3] - A notable case is highlighted where a property purchased for 4 million yuan in 2022 has seen its value drop to 2.65 million yuan, reflecting a price decline of over 30% within two years [1] - The underlying reasons for the real estate bubble's burst include excessive debt leverage among residents, a supply-demand imbalance with supply exceeding demand, and a collapse in market confidence since 2022 [3][5] Group 2: A-Share Market Challenges - The A-share market has seen limited success in wealth generation, with most investors facing losses, as evidenced by an average loss of 54,000 yuan per person in 2023 [1][5] - Key issues in the A-share market include a lack of investment value due to many companies not providing cash dividends, leading to a speculative environment where investors rely on short-term price fluctuations [5] - High initial public offering (IPO) prices, typically above 30-40 times price-to-earnings ratio, have drained future growth potential, resulting in many new stocks experiencing significant declines post-IPO [5]