新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-15 氧化铝价格走强持续性或不强 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20210元/吨，较上一交易日上涨200元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日上涨40元/吨至30元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20180元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上 涨20元/吨至-10元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20130元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨40元/吨至-55元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-05-14日沪铝主力合约开于19995元/吨，收于20275元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨280元/ 吨，涨幅1.4%，最高价达20290元/吨，最低价达到19950元/吨。全天交易日成交160950手，较上一交易日增加 20134手，全天交易日持仓151804手，较上一交易日减少8645手。 库存方面，截止2025-05-12，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存60.1万吨。截止2025-05-14，LME铝库存399300 吨，较前一交易日持平。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-05-14 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2940元/吨，山东价格录得2895元/ ...

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 第一，也是最重要的，中美关税和谈，远超市场预期，带来重大利空！上一轮黄金3167下跌2957后大涨3500美元，是得益于关税，当前下跌主要也是关税。 第二，特朗普政府强调，不会在关税谈判中寻求美元贬值；美元贬值是特朗普弱势美元政策，当前则180°转弯不寻求贬值。 第三，俄乌战争，印巴冲突，以色列与中东国家局势当前降温；美国与伊朗谈判传出缓和信号，智通财经5月15日电，伊朗准备与特朗普政府签署一项有条 件的核协议，以换取解除经济制裁。他表示，伊朗将承诺永不制造核武器，销毁其可用于武器化的高浓缩铀库存！ 第四，特朗普中东之行收获满满，分别与沙特，卡塔尔签署万亿美元级别贸易，有助于缓和关税紧张局势。 当前，三个不太确定性利多因素 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 黄金波动率非常高，十几二十美元一会儿的事。单子入场，10-20美元利润轻松，30美元以上也很快；但是，赚了不跑回吐也很快，因为行情节奏太快，慢 一点就是几美元十几美元的波动。持仓就容易回吐或者打损，所以有利润后减仓或者调整止损就很有必要，随时做好获利平仓的准备。除非进到 ...

PPI：油价强势反弹 生产：轮胎开工率降至年内次低 需求：集运运价指数止跌 CPI：猪价低位拉锯 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样，恐与现实情况有些许出入。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 (1) 电厂日耗季节性下行。5 月 13 日，6 大发电集团的平均日耗为 74.7 万吨，较 5 月 6 日的 75.1 万吨下降 0.6%。5 月 7 日，南方八省电厂日耗为 173.7 万吨，较 4 月 28 日的 186.7 万吨下降 7.0%。 (2) 高炉开工率维持高位。5 月 9 日，全国高炉开工率 84.6%，较 5 月 2 日上升 0.3 个百分点；产能利用率 92.1%， 较 5 月 2 日上升 0.1 个百分点。5 月 9 日，唐山钢厂高炉开工率 94.3%，较 5 月 2 日持平。 (3) 轮胎开工率降至年内次低。5 月 8 日，汽车全钢胎（用于卡车）开工率 44.8%，较 5 月 1 日下降 11.5 个百分点； 汽车半钢胎（用于轿车）开工率 58.4%，较 5 月 1 日下降 14.1 个百分点。 (4) 江浙地区织机开工率小幅回升。5 月 8 日，江浙地区涤纶长丝开工率 92.0%，较 5 月 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), highlighting that the CPI has been slightly below market expectations for two consecutive months, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures [2][5][9]. CPI Overview - In April, the CPI year-on-year decreased from 2.4% to 2.3%, below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.4%, while the core CPI remained steady at 2.8% [2][9]. - The CPI and core CPI have reached their lowest levels since the second quarter of 2021 [2][9]. - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the previous value of -0.1% [2][9]. Structural Analysis of CPI - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily influenced by low base effects, with energy, core goods, and super core services prices shifting from decline to increase [3][12]. - Food prices saw a significant drop, with a month-on-month change from 0.4% to -0.1%, largely due to the fading impact of avian influenza, leading to a 12.7% decrease in egg prices [3][12]. - Energy prices rebounded from -2.4% to 0.7%, driven by a 3.7% increase in gas service prices, despite a slight decrease in gasoline prices [3][12][13]. - Core goods prices shifted from -0.1% to 0.1%, with contributions from furniture, medical supplies, and entertainment goods [4][13]. - Rent growth remained stable, with primary residence rent unchanged at 0.3% [4][13]. - Super core services prices increased from -0.24% to 0.21%, with significant contributions from hotel accommodations and car rentals [4][14]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The current economic fundamentals in the US appear healthy, with no evident signs of stagflation, and private sector consumption demand remains strong [5][16]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a "wait and see" approach, as inflation has been stable and slightly below expectations for two months [5][16][17]. - Despite a significant reduction in tariffs between the US and China, the overall tariff rate remains high at nearly 41%, creating uncertainty in future negotiations [5][16][17]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been adjusted, with the first anticipated cut now pushed to September [17]. Market Reactions - Following the Geneva talks between the US and China, a "risk on" mode was observed in the market, although caution is advised regarding the optimism surrounding tariff negotiations [6][17]. - The CPI report has led to stable market expectations for interest rate cuts, with the futures market slightly adjusting the anticipated number of cuts for the year [17].

风险偏好打压避险资产，金价下跌 金十数据5月14日讯，黄金下跌，因投资者的风险偏好增强，尽管围绕关税谈判路径的不确定性挥之不 去，而且对今年降息的乐观情绪有所增强。Forex.com市场分析师法瓦德•拉扎克扎达表示："随着关税 降低，以及谈判显示出实际进展，投资者正变得越来越放心。更重要的是，周二美国公布的低于预期的 通胀数据火上浇油，安抚了特朗普的贸易关税将引发新一轮通胀浪潮的紧张情绪。看跌势头可能会持续 几天，但长期看涨前景仍然完好无损。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent US-China Geneva talks have led to a temporary resolution of the trade war, with President Trump showing signs of compromise rather than aggression [1][3] - Trump stated that US tariffs on China are unlikely to return to the previous high of 145%, indicating a shift in negotiation dynamics [3] - The outcome of the US-China trade discussions has affected the global standing of the US, leading to retaliatory actions from other countries like India and Japan [5][6] Group 2 - India has proposed countermeasures against the US, including tariffs on certain American products, in response to the US tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum [6][8] - The negotiations between the US and India have not resulted in an agreement, which has implications for India's aspirations to become a manufacturing hub [9][11] - Japan's Prime Minister has taken a strong stance against US tariffs, emphasizing the importance of protecting Japan's automotive industry from potential harm [13][14] Group 3 - The current situation illustrates a shift in global trade dynamics, where countries are reconsidering their negotiation strategies with the US, opting for resistance rather than compromise [18] - The article suggests that the US's perceived strength may be overstated, as countries are now more willing to challenge US tariffs and negotiate from a position of strength [16][18]

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the 0-3 month target price for gold to $3,150/oz from the previous target of $3,500/oz, expecting gold prices to consolidate in the range of $3,000-3,300/oz over the coming months [1][11]. Core Insights - Gold prices reached record highs in late April, driven by strong demand, particularly from ETFs in both China and other markets, with a significant increase in gold investment demand estimated at approximately $400 billion annually [5][7][30]. - The report identifies three key drivers of gold demand: deterioration in global growth prospects due to tariff shocks, diversification of foreign reserves towards gold, and rising concerns over currency debasement in the US and China [6][25]. - The report anticipates a physical market deficit for gold, with investment demand expected to exceed 100% of mine supply during 2Q'25, which historically correlates with price increases [35][77]. Summary by Sections Gold Prices and Market Dynamics - Gold prices are expected to consolidate after a significant rally, with the report noting that the recent price surge was largely influenced by tariff-related concerns [11][41]. - The report highlights that gold's share in global central bank reserves has increased significantly, which may limit future demand for gold as central banks approach their target allocations [59][63]. Demand Analysis - The report indicates that gold jewelry demand has weakened, with a 19% decline in volume terms in 1Q'25 compared to the previous year, which may further impact gold prices [42][47]. - Central bank demand has been robust, particularly from emerging markets, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment for gold [60][77]. Investment Demand and Price Correlation - The relationship between gold prices and investment demand has been strong, with the report stating that for every 10% increase in net investment demand as a share of mine supply, gold prices rise by approximately $170/oz [84][88]. - The report emphasizes that the current high levels of gold prices are creating a unique opportunity for gold producers, as forward prices are significantly higher than spot prices, allowing for potential high margins [65][73].

中辉有色观点 | 200 | 111 | 197 | 1 | I | 1 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | N | C | 1 | E | | | | 金银：关税谈判情绪和通胀降温影响，黄金震荡 表 1：产业高频数据 | 盘面信息 | 最新 | 最新 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 上周 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | SHFE黄金 | 767.68 | 772.28 | -0. 60% | 804 | -4. 46% | | | COMEX黄金 | 3255 | 3242 | 0. 39% | 3310 | -1.69% | | 白银 | SHFE 白 银 | 8245 | 8232 | 0. 16% | 8235 | 0. 12% | | | COMEX白银 | 33 | 33 | 0. 90% | 33 | 1.47% | | | 上海金银比 | 93. 40 | 93.81 | -0. 44% | 97.37 | -4. 07% | | 比价 | COME ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a lack of direction following the initial positive response to the temporary tariff reduction agreement between China and the US, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a decline of over 400 points [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,108, down 441 points or 1.9%, while the National Index fell by 2% to 8,386, and the Tech Index dropped by 3.3% to 5,269 [3] Macro & Industry Dynamics - UBS has downgraded its outlook on the US stock market from "bullish" to "neutral," citing that the market has already priced in too many trade-related concerns, with the S&P 500 index rising 11% since April 10 [6] - UBS expects that the recent tariff negotiations will lead to an upward revision of China's economic growth forecast from 4% and a reduction in the trade war's drag on growth from 2 percentage points to approximately 1 percentage point [6][7] - Nomura has upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks to "tactical overweight," indicating that the recent tariff agreement will support positive risk sentiment in Asian markets and enhance the attractiveness of Chinese stocks [8] Company News - Meituan's subsidiary, Keeta, plans to enter the Brazilian market with an investment of $1 billion (approximately 7.8 billion HKD) over the next five years, aiming to enhance consumer experience and create job opportunities [10] - Nissin Foods reported a 6.71% year-on-year decrease in net profit for the first quarter, with a profit of 110 million HKD, despite a revenue increase of 11.31% to 1.072 billion HKD [11] - Shengye announced a placement of up to 17.48 million new shares at a discount of 6.91% to raise approximately 210 million HKD, which will be used to accelerate the expansion of its platform technology services [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the lithium battery and new energy sectors, focusing on the impact of U.S. tariff adjustments on these industries [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Adjustments**: The U.S. has frequently adjusted tariffs on lithium batteries and related products. The total tax rate for energy storage batteries has decreased to 40.9%, but if no agreement is reached in the next three months, it could rise to 64.5% [1][2]. - **Impact on Demand**: The reduction in tariffs is expected to marginally improve the economic viability of energy storage projects, particularly benefiting Tesla's North American storage demand, with projected profits increasing to $350 million [1][3][13]. - **Market Reactions**: Companies with significant indirect exposure to the U.S. market, such as those producing consumer electronics batteries, have seen stock price adjustments due to concerns over demand shrinkage and supply chain shifts [1][5]. - **3M Company**: Initially faced pessimism regarding its energy storage business due to tariff concerns, but stock prices have begun to recover as market conditions improve. Expected shipments for 2025 are between 670-680 GWh, with profits projected around $70 billion [9]. - **Macro Trends**: The U.S. accounts for approximately 30% of global energy storage demand. The tariff reduction is expected to lead to a surge in installations in the short term [1][6]. Additional Important Content - **Indirect Exposure Risks**: Companies like EVE Energy and others in the consumer electronics battery sector are facing significant indirect exposure to U.S. tariffs, leading to stock price declines [5][14]. - **Future Opportunities**: The solid-state battery sector is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity, with several companies expected to benefit from upcoming product launches and technological advancements [18]. - **Long-term Market Trends**: The U.S. renewable energy market is projected to grow, with wind and solar power becoming increasingly competitive. This growth is expected to drive demand for energy storage solutions [19][26]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies such as Ningde Times, Sungrow Power, and others are identified as key beneficiaries in the energy storage market due to their strong positions and readiness to expand orders [28][38]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic regarding the lithium battery and energy storage sectors, with potential for growth driven by tariff adjustments and increasing demand for renewable energy solutions. Companies with strategic positioning and adaptability to market changes are likely to benefit the most in the coming years [1][17][38].