以下文章来源于晚点LatePost ，作者晚点团队 晚点LatePost . 晚一点，好一点 泡沫之后。 作者/曾梦龙 编辑/ 黄俊杰 来源/晚点LatePost (ID：postlate) 继今年成为首个 4 万亿美元市值的公司后，英伟达在 1 0 月 2 9 日成为目前唯一一个 5 万亿公司。 2 0 2 2 年 11 月 底 Ch a tGPT 上 线 前 夕 ， 英 伟 达 还 只 有 4 0 0 0 亿 美 元 市 值 。 之 后 近 三 年，美国资本市场与 AI 密切相关的公司价值就增加了 1 0 多万亿美元，相当于整个 A 股的总市值。 光英伟达新增的市值就超过英法德股市总和。Op e nAI 估值增加 4 8 0 0 亿美元，也超过 了大多数国家的 GDP。 与此同时，今年 1 0 月的新书《1 9 2 9》则回顾了一个技术进步、金融澎湃时代也有另一 种可能。《大而不倒》的作者、美剧《亿万》编剧索尔金（An d r ew Ro ss S o r k i n）回 到大萧条前的经济泡沫，呈现了与今天有诸多相似之处的环境：技术革命连环爆发，电 网 、 家 电 、 收 音 机 、 电 视 机 、 汽 ...

Core Insights - The debate over the "AI bubble" is intensifying as global investments flood into the AI sector, raising questions about the sustainability of China's AI industry [1] - Historical lessons from the internet bubble suggest that while initial excitement may lead to a bubble, a few companies will emerge post-bubble to create significant societal value [1] Group 1: Current State of AI in China - China's AI development is primarily driven by demand, focusing on practical applications rather than speculative investments [1] - As of June this year, the user base for generative AI in China reached 515 million, providing a solid foundation for AI training and optimization [1] - AI technologies are being integrated across various sectors, including agriculture, industry, and services, facilitating the transformation of traditional industries [1] Group 2: Future Prospects and Strategic Directions - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the implementation of the "AI+" initiative, aiming to integrate AI with various sectors to enhance productivity and societal welfare [2] - High-value AI applications are expected to evolve from basic to deep applications, addressing significant pain points and enabling large-scale implementations [2] - AI can optimize production processes in smart manufacturing, helping companies reduce costs and improve decision-making in complex scenarios [2] Group 3: Investment and Entrepreneurial Strategies - The true bubble arises from concept speculation rather than the technology itself, urging investors to focus on core value segments within the AI industry [2] - Entrepreneurs are advised to maintain clarity and avoid following trends blindly, emphasizing the importance of deepening scenario innovation [2] - Participants who concentrate on the essence of technology and its commercial value are likely to succeed in the ongoing technological revolution [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia reported a remarkable Q3 earnings with revenue reaching $57.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62%, surpassing analyst expectations of $55.19 billion. The company also provided a strong guidance for the next quarter at $65 billion, exceeding market estimates of $62.4 billion [1][3] Group 1: Earnings Report and Market Reaction - Nvidia's stock initially surged over 6% in after-hours trading following the earnings report but then fell nearly 3% the next day, closing at $180.98, marking a one-month low [3] - The market's reaction indicates a decline in risk appetite for the tech sector, with the S&P 500 index dropping approximately 3% [3] Group 2: Concerns Over AI Sustainability - Despite strong sales data, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of the AI boom, with debates about whether the current enthusiasm is leading to an "AI bubble" [3][4] - Analysts from Western Securities highlighted two weakening assumptions supporting the AI narrative: first, AI may not reshape the tech ecosystem and generate significant commercial returns like smartphones did; second, competition from open-source models is compressing industry profit margins [4] Group 3: AI Adoption and Economic Impact - The report noted that only 5% of integrated AI pilot projects have realized millions in value extraction, with many projects stagnating due to rigid workflows and lack of contextual learning [4] - There is skepticism about whether the AI narrative is progressing too quickly while actual benefits are slow to materialize, with over $1.5 trillion in AI-related investments announced globally in recent months, yet stock valuations have not reached pre-burst levels of the 2000 internet bubble [5] Group 4: Nvidia's Perspective on AI and Market Dynamics - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang responded to bubble concerns by asserting that the industry is undergoing three significant technological transformations rather than being in a bubble: a shift from general computing to accelerated computing, a leap from traditional machine learning to generative AI, and the rise of agentic AI and physical AI [6] - Huang emphasized that Nvidia's architecture supports these three technological paths, positioning the company as a foundational infrastructure provider in this global tech transformation [6] - While Nvidia's earnings are impressive, market concerns reflect deeper uncertainties about the timing of AI's impact on corporate profitability and productivity [6]

Core Insights - Google is making significant strides in the AI chip market, aiming to capture 10% of Nvidia's annual revenue through its TPU offerings [6][12][26] - Nvidia is responding aggressively to Google's advancements, emphasizing its established position and capabilities in the AI hardware space [2][20][22] Group 1: Google's Strategy - Google has successfully launched its Gemini 3 AI model using its proprietary TPU, which has led to increased interest from major clients like Meta and financial institutions [3][4] - The company is promoting the deployment of TPUs in clients' data centers, highlighting benefits such as enhanced security and performance for sensitive applications [14][15] - Google has developed a "Google version of CUDA" to facilitate the use of TPUs, aiming to simplify the integration process for clients [14][19] Group 2: Nvidia's Response - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang is closely monitoring Google's TPU developments and is actively courting potential clients to prevent them from switching to Google [20][21] - Nvidia is employing a straightforward strategy of financial investment to secure commitments from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI to continue using its GPUs [21][22] - Despite Nvidia's strong financial performance, the company faces market volatility and pressure to meet high expectations, which has led to significant fluctuations in its stock price [27][31][32] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Both Google and Nvidia have seen their stock prices outperform the S&P 500, with Alphabet showing particularly strong gains [9][11] - The competition between Google and Nvidia is reshaping the AI industry landscape, with both companies vying for dominance in the AI chip market [8][26] - Other major players, including Amazon and Microsoft, are also developing their own AI chips, indicating a broader trend in the industry towards self-sufficiency in AI hardware [26]

近期，投资者对AI泡沫的担心持续上升。就此，在11月26日举办的中国银河证券2026年度投资策略报 告会上，中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长章俊表示，AI泡沫确实存在，但会否演变成危机， 目前来看还为时尚早。章俊提到，IMF将当下与互联网泡沫进行了对比，从市盈率和投资热度等指标来 看，目前整体依然相对可控。美联储加息是刺破互联网泡沫的重要原因，但当下是美联储和全球降息周 期，政策风险可控。不过与此同时，他强调，目前全球经济的韧性远低于当年，因此指标的可比性也还 是存在不确定性。 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba is focusing on increasing capital expenditure to enhance future earnings potential, particularly in its AI cloud business, which has shown significant growth despite short-term market concerns [1][6] - The latest quarterly report highlights a 34% year-on-year revenue growth for Alibaba Cloud, driven by strong AI demand and public cloud revenue [1][3] - The company’s capital expenditure surged by 80% year-on-year to 31.5 billion RMB, with a total of approximately 120 billion RMB invested in AI and cloud infrastructure over the past four quarters [1][7] Financial Performance - Alibaba Cloud's revenue reached 39.824 billion RMB, marking a record growth rate [1][3] - Adjusted net profit fell by 72% year-on-year to 10.35 billion RMB, and free cash flow turned into a net outflow of 21.84 billion RMB [1][3] - The total revenue growth for Alibaba Cloud and its non-consolidated businesses accelerated to 34% and 29% respectively for the quarter ending September 30, 2025 [3] AI Business Strategy - The company is prioritizing three key areas for AI development: enhancing core model training capabilities, improving the efficiency of the Bai Lian platform for inference services, and balancing internal AI needs with external customer demands [4][5] - There is a strong demand for AI products among enterprise clients, with significant growth potential in various applications, including product development and customer interactions [3][6] - CEO Wu Yongming expressed confidence in the absence of an "AI bubble" over the next three years, citing solid demand and reasonable return potential [6][7] Supply Chain and Investment Outlook - The global AI server supply chain is experiencing shortages, with demand outpacing supply, which is expected to continue for the next two to three years [7][8] - Alibaba's CFO indicated that the previously mentioned 380 billion RMB capital expenditure plan might be conservative, and further investments could be made to meet market demand [7][8] - The company is focusing on the quality and cost-effectiveness of its AI infrastructure, with various application models contributing to revenue generation [8]

在市场担忧AI大量投入能否高效带来业绩转化后，公募资金将目光投向业绩落地便利的AI营销赛道。 正在AI营销赛道加大投入的微盟集团，也结束了此前业绩不佳导致公募基金减持退出的现象，该股今年来的 AI营销业务加速扭亏，毛利率从44%升至75%，微盟集团在第三季度开始吸引不少基金经理关注，华安基金旗 下多只公募产品将微盟集团列入十大重仓股名单。 AI营销表现强劲，公募产品抓取丰厚收益 公募基金经理对AI营销赛道关注度的不断提高，既因AI赛道的布局逻辑发生重大变化，也因AI营销行业展现 的高弹性成长力。 券商中国记者注意到，南方基金、招商基金、广发基金挖掘的美图公司过去三年累计股价涨幅约8倍，其股价 的驱动力既得益于C端传统会员修图业务，也得益于新打造的AI营销业务。尤其在美图公司逐步模仿美股上市 公司奥多比，从服务C端向服务B端转变后，其打造AI营销SAAS已成为公司第二增长曲线，美图宜肤、美图云 修、美图设计室等企业级AI营销业务成为业绩新亮点，公司此前亦针对企业级市场业务收购相关公司，包括 以2.8亿元收购站酷设计网，AI营销赛道的需求增长，刺激该公司净利润连续多年猛增。 随着市场对AI投入产出比的关注度越来越 ...

"这一次没有什么不同，无论多少人试图证明。再一次，有一个思科处于这一切的中心，它为所有人提供'镐和铲子'，并伴随着宏大的愿 景。它的名字叫英伟达。" 在经历了基金注销传闻与"做空AI金额被媒体夸大百倍"的闹剧后，电影《大空头》原型、知名投资者Michael Burry于当地时间11月24日兑 现承诺，准时"回归"。 这一次，他并未如传言般通过巨额期权做空市场，而是选择通过首篇专栏文章《泡沫的主要迹象：供给侧的暴食》（The Cardinal Sign of a Bubble: Supply-Side Gluttony）来表达"做空AI"的观点。 Burry在这篇文章中，正式向当下的AI热潮宣战，而风暴的中心正是英伟达。他直指英伟达即是当年的思科。 核心论战：英伟达就是当年的思科 针对近期市场认为"科技巨头盈利能力强，因此不存在泡沫"的主流观点，Burry在文中进行了针锋相对的反驳。 他列举了1999年互联网泡沫巅峰时期的数据指出，当年的繁荣同样是由高利润公司推动的，而非仅仅是那些甚至没有收入的小网站。 "并不像人们以为的那样是由无利可图的网络公司驱动，1999年强劲的纳斯达克指数是由当时高利润的大盘股推动进入 ...

Macro Economic Group - The report indicates that the US PPI remained stable in September, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching expectations, while the core PPI rose by 0.1%, slightly below the expected 0.2% [5] - Retail sales in the US showed a disappointing performance in September, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, indicating a weakening consumer spending momentum [5][6] - The report highlights a "K-shaped" recovery in consumer spending, with a decline in auto sales attributed to the expiration of electric vehicle tax credits, alongside a soft job market and low consumer confidence [6] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-share rating to "Sell," lowering the lithium price forecast for the second half of 2026 by 14% to $9,500 per ton due to weak downstream market feedback and slowing inventory replenishment [12] - The report predicts a 12% shortfall in global lithium capacity relative to demand in the second half of 2025, transitioning to a 10% surplus by the second half of 2026 [12] - The report remains optimistic about mid-term lithium demand and price stability, citing a projected 46% growth in energy storage battery demand in 2026 [12] Consumer Group - Bilibili reported Q3 total revenue of 7.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.8%, with adjusted net profit soaring by 233% to 786 million yuan [14][15] - The company achieved a GAAP operating profit of 354 million yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 66.7 million yuan in the same period last year, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [15] - Advertising revenue grew by 23% year-on-year to 2.57 billion yuan, becoming the core growth engine for the company, while gaming revenue declined by 17% to 1.51 billion yuan due to high base effects from the previous year [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - The US economic data indicates an increasing possibility of interest - rate cuts. The market is focusing on November employment data and the appointment process of the Fed Chair. In China, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, while the policy remains firm, and the market anticipates more policy support [1][2]. - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to "oscillate at the bottom with a slowly declining central level". The RMB's internal appreciation power is accumulating, and the potential rebound of the US dollar is weaker than the previous cycle [4]. - The expectation of Fed rate cuts in December exceeds 80%, which supports the repair of stock index valuations. However, market sentiment is cautious, and the short - term stock index is expected to run strongly and gradually fill the previous gap [5]. - The short - term trading sentiment of treasury bonds is weak, but the medium - term outlook is optimistic [6]. Commodities Metals - Precious metals are expected to see their price centers rise in the medium - to - long term. Short - term attention should be paid to the December Fed rate - cut expectation and the 60 - day moving average [9][12]. - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 yuan/ton, and downstream enterprises in need of inventory are recommended to buy futures for hedging [13][16]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level; alumina is expected to run weakly; cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level; zinc is expected to oscillate; nickel and stainless steel may continue to correct; tin is expected to oscillate at a high level; lithium carbonate futures prices will fluctuate greatly; industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to oscillate weakly; lead is expected to oscillate [16][17][20]. Black Commodities - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate within a range with bottom support [27][29]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before considering short - selling [29][30]. - Coking coal and coke: The short - term downward space of coking coal is limited, and the far - month 05 contract has medium - to - long - term long - allocation potential; for coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward trend [31][32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Energy and Chemicals - LPG is expected to oscillate, with overall fundamentals changing little and slightly weakening [34][35]. - PTA - PX: The aromatics blending - oil logic is weakening. PTA's supply - demand margin has improved, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [37][39]. - MEG - bottle chips: The overall supply - demand situation is still surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies [40][42]. - Methanol: The rebound height of the 01 contract is limited, and it is recommended to hold short - call options and conduct reverse spreads [43][44]. - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level, with supply pressure marginally relieved but weak demand [46][47]. - PE is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [49][50]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price may fall if the US - South Korea pure benzene trading lacks continuity [51]. - Fuel oil: The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil has stabilized and rebounded, but it is still bearish in the future; the cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened, but the overall driving force is still upward [51][53]. - Asphalt: The short - term price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - allocation opportunity of BU2603 [54][55]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate at a low level. Soda ash is mainly cost - priced; glass is affected by cold - repair expectations; caustic soda has supply pressure and weak demand [55][57][58]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp prices are still likely to decline, while the price of offset paper has received some support from paper mills' price increases [58][59]. Others - Logs: The 01 contract is expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies and 01 - 03 reverse spreads [61][62]. - Propylene is expected to maintain a weak pattern [63][64]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - US economic data: September PPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month, core PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month; ADP data showed a weekly average decrease of 13,500 private - sector jobs in the past four weeks; September retail sales increased by 0.2% month - on - month [1][4][5]. - Fed officials' statements and related news: Some Fed officials' statements strengthened the expectation of a December rate cut; there are speculations about the Fed Chair nominee [1][4]. - Geopolitical events: Ukraine agreed to the core terms of the US - proposed plan, and the situation in the Red Sea is related to the shipping market [1]. - Exchange rate: On - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose above 7.09 [3]. Core Logic - Overseas: The US employment data is divided, and the market focuses on November employment data and the Fed Chair appointment. Domestic: The economic fundamentals are cooling, but the policy is firm, and the market expects more policy support [2]. Commodities Metals Precious Metals - Market performance: COMEX gold and silver futures prices fluctuated slightly; SHFE gold and silver futures prices rose [9]. - Rate - cut expectations and fund holdings: The market expects an over 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in December; long - term funds increased their holdings of gold and silver ETFs [10][11]. - Key points of attention: US government data release, Fed economic beige book, and Thanksgiving holiday trading arrangements [11]. Base Metals - Copper: Overnight copper prices in different markets showed different trends; copper inventories in different exchanges changed; the US PPI was in line with expectations, and copper prices were affected by rate - cut expectations [13][14][16]. - Aluminum and related products: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level; alumina is expected to run weakly; cast aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [16][17]. - Zinc: Zinc prices oscillated, with high smelting - end ore - grabbing and reduced TC, and the market is in a state of long - short divergence [17][18]. - Nickel and stainless steel: Nickel and stainless - steel prices corrected, affected by Indonesian policies and cost support; nickel - iron prices continued to decline, and stainless - steel exports had some positive factors [18][20]. - Tin: Tin prices oscillated at a high level, with supply problems and Congo - Kinshasa unrest affecting the market [20][21]. - Lithium carbonate: Futures prices rose, and the market is concerned about supply and demand changes and battery - cell production schedules [22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon: Futures prices showed different trends, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the trading logic potentially shifting to supply - demand fundamentals [23][24]. - Lead: Lead prices continued to decline, with raw - material shortages in the smelting end and potential import increases to balance the market [25][26]. Black Commodities Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market performance: Prices rose slightly, and the increase was accompanied by position reduction, affected by iron ore [27]. - Core logic: The supply and demand of steel improved marginally, with inventory slowly decreasing; iron ore prices oscillated, and the profit of steel enterprises decreased, increasing the risk of negative feedback [27][28]. Iron Ore - Market information: Iron ore prices were strong, with port and overseas inventories changing; the Fed's dovish statements increased the rate - cut probability [29]. - Core logic: Prices oscillated widely, affected by coking coal; the iron - ore market was balanced in the short term, with structural shortages of medium - grade ore [30]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market information: Coking coal prices in Shanxi decreased; the Fed official advocated rate cuts; relevant coal - mine policies were introduced [30]. - Core logic: Coking coal prices continued to decline, with supply increasing and demand weakening in the short term, but there is support in the medium term; for coke, it is not recommended to blindly short [31][32]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Market performance: Prices oscillated. - Core logic: The profitability of steel mills declined, iron - alloy demand is expected to decrease, and they face high - inventory and weak - demand problems [33]. Energy and Chemicals LPG - Market performance: LPG futures prices oscillated, and spot prices changed slightly. - Core logic: Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and the market was affected by crude - oil price fluctuations [34][35]. PTA - PX - Market information: PX supply increased, and PTA had many shutdowns; polyester demand was expected to remain high [37][38]. - Core logic: The aromatics blending - oil logic weakened, and PTA's supply - demand margin improved, with attention paid to restart plans and blending - oil dynamics [37][39]. MEG - Bottle Chips - Market information: MEG inventory was stable, and some devices restarted or shut down; polyester demand was expected to remain high [40][42]. - Core logic: The supply - demand situation was still surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies [40][42]. Methanol - Market performance: Methanol futures prices oscillated around 2000 yuan/ton. - Core logic: The port pressure in December is expected to increase, and the rebound height of the 01 contract is limited [43][44]. PP - Market performance: PP futures prices declined, and spot prices were weak. - Core logic: Supply pressure was marginally relieved, but demand was weak after the "Double Eleven" [46][47]. PE - Market performance: PE futures prices declined, and spot prices changed slightly. - Core logic: The supply - strong and demand - weak situation continued, with the end of the agricultural - film peak season [49][50]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: Futures prices showed different trends, and spot prices changed slightly. - Core logic: The market was affected by the aromatics blending - oil speculation, and the long - term price may fall if the US - South Korea pure benzene trading lacks continuity [51]. Fuel Oil - Market performance: High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel - oil futures prices showed different trends. - Core logic: The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil is bearish; the cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has upward driving force [51][53]. Asphalt - Market performance: Asphalt futures and spot prices changed slightly. - Core logic: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the long - allocation opportunity of BU2603 [54][55]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Market performance: Futures prices of glass, soda ash, and caustic soda showed different trends. - Core logic: Soda ash is cost - priced; glass is affected by cold - repair expectations; caustic soda has supply pressure and weak demand [55][57][58]. Pulp and Paper - Market performance: Pulp and offset - paper futures prices showed different trends. - Core logic: Pulp prices are likely to decline, while offset - paper prices are supported by paper mills' price increases [58][59]. Others Logs - Market performance: Log futures prices declined, and spot prices generally decreased. - Core logic: The 01 contract is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies and consider 01 - 03 reverse spreads [61][62]. Propylene - Market performance: Propylene futures prices declined, and spot prices increased slightly. - Core logic: Propylene supply is loose, and demand is affected by PP and other downstream industries, with an expected weak - oscillation pattern [63][64].