1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Pig Industry - Short - term pig prices are rebounding due to secondary fattening, but long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are not optimistic. Short - term futures operations may be strong, but the upward space is limited, and the supply pressure in the medium - and long - term is difficult to ease [2]. Oil Industry - Malaysian palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, and domestic palm oil futures may also be weak. US soybean oil is affected by related oils, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory, but there may be a price - holding mentality due to losses in oil mill crushing margins [6]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are rebounding, and domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient. However, domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, and the spot price is difficult to improve. The meal lacks a continuous upward drive, but there is support at the cost end [8]. Corn Industry - Corn prices are still likely to be weak due to selling pressure from a bumper harvest. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for rigid needs, and the futures market is also under pressure [10]. Sugar Industry - Brazilian sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and the international raw sugar price is likely to be weak. The domestic sugar price has limited downward momentum and may be supported [14]. Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises have certain demand for cotton, and the new cotton cost provides support. However, there is hedging pressure, and short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [15]. Egg Industry - Egg supply is sufficient, and demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline, and the main contract may face pressure around 3200 [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract increased by 125 to - 225, with a change rate of 35.71%. Futures prices of contracts such as "pig 2511" and "pig 2601" declined slightly. The main contract's open interest increased by 4.68% to 112,397, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 206 [2]. Spot Prices - Spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with prices in Henan and Hunan rising, and those in Shandong, Liaoning, and Hebei falling [2]. Spot Indicators - Daily slaughter volume decreased by 1.29%, weekly white - strip prices dropped by 100%, and weekly self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased by 24.12% and 22.97% respectively. The monthly inventory of reproductive sows decreased by 0.10% to 40.38 million heads [2]. Oil Industry Palm Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, and domestic Dalian palm oil futures may also seek support in the range of 8900 - 9000 yuan [6]. Soybean Oil - US soybean oil is affected by related oils, and domestic soybean oil inventory is at a high level, but there may be a price - holding mentality due to losses in oil mill crushing margins [6]. Canola Oil - The spot price of canola oil decreased slightly, and the basis also declined [6]. Spreads - Spreads such as the three - oil inter - period spread and the palm oil inter - period spread showed different changes [6]. Meal Industry Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.68%, the futures price decreased slightly, and the basis increased significantly. The crushing margins of imported soybeans from Argentina and Brazil showed different trends [8]. Rapeseed Meal - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.41%, the futures price decreased, and the basis increased. The crushing margin of imported rapeseed from Canada decreased [8]. Soybeans - The spot and futures prices of soybeans in different regions changed slightly, and the basis also changed accordingly [8]. Spreads - Spreads such as the soybean meal inter - period spread and the oil - meal ratio showed different changes [8]. Corn Industry Corn - The futures price of corn decreased slightly, the basis increased, and the north - south trade profit and import profit decreased [10]. Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch decreased, the basis increased, and the profit of Shandong starch increased [10]. Sugar Industry Futures Market - The futures prices of sugar contracts such as "sugar 2601" and "sugar 2605" decreased slightly, and the open interest and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [14]. Spot Market - Spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, and the basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar decreased, and the price differences with domestic sugar also changed [14]. Industry Situation - National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and industrial inventory decreased significantly. Sugar imports increased by 37.50% [14]. Cotton Industry Futures Market - The futures prices of cotton contracts such as "cotton 2605" and "cotton 2601" decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased [15]. Spot Market - Spot prices such as the Xinjiang arrival price and the CC Index increased slightly, and the price differences with futures contracts also changed [15]. Industry Situation - Commercial inventory increased significantly, industrial inventory decreased, and imports increased by 42.9% [15]. Egg Industry Futures and Spot Indicators - Futures prices of egg contracts such as "egg 11" and "egg 01" increased, the spot price of eggs increased, and the basis and spreads changed [17]. Related Indicators - The price of egg - laying chicks increased, the price of culled hens decreased, and the egg - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Pig Industry - Short - term pig prices are supported by secondary fattening, but in the long run, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will continue to be released, and the outlook for pig prices is not optimistic. The short - term disk operation may be strong, but the upward space is limited, and the risk of holding arbitrage positions increases [2]. 2.2 Oil Industry - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure due to concerns about slow exports. There is a possibility of further decline, but there may be a chance of stabilizing and rebounding after the release of the MPOB report risk. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are expected to be under pressure and seek support in the range of 8900 - 9000 yuan. - Soybean oil: The influence of the US soybean oil's own fundamentals has declined. The domestic inventory is at a high level, the basis is under pressure, but the oil mills may have a certain price - holding mentality due to losses in crushing margins [6]. 2.3 Meal Industry - The Sino - US negotiations are progressing, and the export prospects of US soybeans are improving. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but the crushing margins are deteriorating, and the oil mills' reluctance to sell has increased. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the spot price is expected to be weak this year. The soybean meal lacks a continuous upward driving force, and the disk has support around 2900 [8]. 2.4 Corn Industry - The corn price in the Northeast is stable with a slight increase, while the price in North China has declined again. The overall corn harvest progress is over 80%, and there is still selling pressure under a bumper harvest. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for rigid needs. The disk is still weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm and the intensity of policy procurement [10]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - Brazil's supply outlook is loose, and the raw sugar price is expected to be weak. The domestic sugar price has a weak intention to follow the decline, and the current bottom - shock weak pattern may continue [14]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flows have improved, and the rigid demand for cotton raw materials is resilient. The new cotton cost has increased, which supports the cotton price. However, the cotton price also faces hedging pressure, and the marginal driving force is decreasing. The short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is sufficient, and the demand may first increase and then decrease this week. The egg price may rise slightly in the short term but may decline slightly in the second half of the week due to strong supply and weak demand. The main contract's rebound should pay attention to the pressure level around 3200 [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract increased by 125 to - 225, with an increase rate of 35.71%. The prices of "pig 2511" and "pig 2601" decreased slightly, and the main contract's open interest increased by 4.68% to 112397. The number of warehouse receipts increased to 206 [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.29%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100%, and the weekly prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased, and the monthly inventory of reproductive sows decreased slightly [2]. 3.2 Oil Industry 3.2.1 Soybean Oil - The current price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8450 yuan/ton, the futures price of "Y2601" increased slightly, the basis decreased by 2.29%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.99% [6]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The current price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9000 yuan/ton, the futures price of "P2601" decreased slightly, the basis increased, the import cost increased slightly, the import profit decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. 3.2.3 Rapeseed Oil - The current price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.50% to 10000 yuan/ton, the futures price of "OI601" increased slightly, the basis decreased significantly, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. 3.2.4 Spreads - The spreads of different varieties showed different trends, such as the three - oil inter - period spread increased, while the palm oil and rapeseed oil inter - period spreads decreased [6]. 3.3 Meal Industry 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - The current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.68% to 2960 yuan/ton, the futures price of "M2601" decreased slightly, the basis increased significantly, the import crushing margins of Argentina and Brazil showed different trends, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. 3.3.2 Rapeseed Meal - The current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2420 yuan/ton, the futures price of "RM2601" decreased, the basis increased, the import crushing margin of Canada decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 9.40% [8]. 3.3.3 Soybeans - The current prices of domestic and imported soybeans remained unchanged, the futures prices of the main contracts decreased slightly, the bases increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. 3.3.4 Spreads - The inter - period spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, the oil - meal ratio showed different trends, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased [8]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Corn - The futures price of "corn 2601" decreased slightly, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, the prices of ports and trade profits showed different trends, the number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased significantly, the open interest decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10]. 3.4.2 Corn Starch - The futures price of "corn starch 2601" decreased slightly, the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remained unchanged, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, the starch - corn 01 spread decreased, the profit of Shandong starch increased, the open interest decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10]. 3.5 Sugar Industry 3.5.1 Futures Market - The futures prices of "sugar 2601" and "sugar 2605" decreased slightly, the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, the open interest of the main contract decreased, the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the effective forecast increased [14]. 3.5.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, the bases increased, the import prices of Brazilian sugar decreased, and the spreads between imported sugar and domestic sugar decreased [14]. 3.5.3 Industry Situation - The cumulative production and sales of sugar increased year - on - year, the cumulative sales rate in the whole country decreased, the cumulative sales rate in Guangxi increased, the industrial inventory in the whole country decreased significantly, and the industrial inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan increased. The sugar import volume increased [14]. 3.6 Cotton Industry 3.6.1 Futures Market - The futures prices of "cotton 2605" and "cotton 2601" decreased slightly, the ICE US cotton main contract increased slightly, the 5 - 1 spread decreased to 0, the open interest of the main contract decreased, the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the effective forecast increased significantly [15]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - The spot prices increased slightly, the spreads between spot and futures contracts increased, and the spread between the CC Index and the FC Index decreased [15]. 3.6.3 Industry Situation - The commercial inventory increased significantly, the industrial inventory decreased slightly, the import volume increased, the bonded area inventory decreased slightly, the inventory of the textile industry increased year - on - year, the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth increased, the cotton outbound shipment volume increased, the processing profit of textile enterprises decreased, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased, and the export situation of textile products showed different trends [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Indicators - The futures prices of "egg 11" and "egg 01" increased, the spot price in the egg - producing area increased, the basis increased, the 11 - 01 spread decreased, the price of chicken seedlings increased, the price of culled chickens decreased, the egg - feed ratio decreased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [17]. 3.7.2 Market Situation - The inventory of laying hens is high, the egg supply is sufficient, the demand may first increase and then decrease, and the egg price may first rise slightly and then decline slightly [17][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, there is a bottom - support sentiment in the pig market, but contradictions continue to accumulate. The rebound of spot prices in October led to an extension of the inventory accumulation cycle due to increased second - round fattening enthusiasm, postponing the pressure. The futures market is expected to enter an adjustment phase [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (10.20 - 10.26) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices showed a strong - side oscillation. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 19.4 yuan/kg (last week: 20.4 yuan/kg), the pig price in Henan was 11.98 yuan/kg (last week: 11.38 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1546 yuan/head (last week: 1566 yuan/head). The average national slaughter weight was 124.75KG, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06%. The supply tightened slightly as group slaughter progress was fast and individual farmers were reluctant to sell. Low prices stimulated demand, and the slaughter volume increased significantly [2]. - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices showed a strong - side performance. The highest price of the LH2511 contract was 11615 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11490 yuan/ton (last week: 11050 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2511 contract was 490 yuan/ton (last week: 330 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (10.27 - 11.2) - **Spot Market**: Pig spot prices will oscillate. After the sharp decline after the National Day holiday, low prices stimulated demand and second - round fattening. Supply is expected to increase continuously, but low prices have boosted demand. The inventory accumulation cycle has been extended, and the pressure has been postponed. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment after the rebound at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2511 contract price closed at 11490 yuan/ton on October 24. Short - term spot prices are expected to oscillate upward, but the market is expected to enter an adjustment phase. The support level for the LH2511 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12000 yuan/ton. Traders should pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Month - spread**: This week's basis was 490 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 month - spread was - 685 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9%; pork imports were 80,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.02%. The average slaughter weight this week was 124.75KG [10].

据农业农村部监测，10月24日，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.73元/公斤，与上周五（10月17日）的18.03元/公斤相比，下降 1.7%。本周的平均价格为17.7元/公斤，与上周18.24元/公斤的均价相比，下降2.9%。 本周国内生猪价格持续上涨，周均价环比上涨。据中国养猪网的数据，10月24日，生猪（外三元）价格为11.8元/公斤，与上周五（10月17 日）的11.17元/公斤相比，上涨5.6%。从一周均价来看，本周生猪均价为11.5元/公斤，与上周11元/公斤的均价相比，上涨4.5%。 | 日期 | 猪肉批发价格 (元/公斤) | 生猪(外三元)(元/公斤) | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年9月1日 | 20. 01 | 13. 83 | | 2025年9月2日 | 19. 8 | 14. 04 | | 2025年9月3日 | 20. 04 | 14. 06 | | 2025年9月4日 | 19. 85 | 13. 98 | | 2025年9月5日 | 19. 84 | 13. 89 | | 2025年9月8日 | 20. 1 | 13. 59 | | 2025年9 ...

而这回猪价持续上涨的原因就是4个字：一猪难求！ 当然，这个猪指的是大猪，尤其是350斤以上的大猪，现在市场上供应的确是不多。 二师兄这波上涨有点猛。 说猛倒不是说涨幅有多猛，毕竟涨了好几天，也还是没全面回到6元时代。但是怎么说呢，在当前这样的供需背景下，已经算是很不错了。 当前什么情况呢？ 供应方面压力不是很大，而是一直很大。 虽然官方从5月份开始就一直强调去产能去产能，但是从产能去化的幅度来看，前期是比较慢的，也就是最近两个月稍稍有些加速，但整体去化幅度也还是 偏慢。 而需求端呢，这两年猪肉消费波动不大，尤其是往年节日效应有明显走弱的趋势，一方面是大家钱袋子紧，日子都开始精打细算；另一方面，像鸡蛋、水产 品等价格也都不贵，所以也并不是非吃猪肉不可。 所以消费端没有什么太大的亮眼可言。 整体生猪市场依然是一个供强需弱的大背景，而在这样的背景下，还能连续上涨已经很不错了。 怎么就突然缺大猪了呢？ 原因是前期生猪市场一直在践行降体重、控制二次育肥，再加上标肥价差倒挂，所以前期大猪出栏较多，使得市场中大猪持续减少。 但随着最近全国多地大降温，市场对于大猪的需求明显增多，于是标肥价差开始走扩，有的地方标肥价差甚至达到 ...

1. Report Information - **Industry**: Agricultural products [1] - **Date**: October 24, 2025 [1] - **Research Team**: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] 2. Fats and Oils 2.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The three major oils continued to decline this week, with palm oil having the largest decline of over 2%, followed by rapeseed oil, and soybean oil being the strongest. The overall oils sector remained in a volatile adjustment phase, searching for support below technically, while the basis quotation had little fluctuation [8]. - **Macro Factors**: China-US trade negotiations and Canada-China trade discussions related to agriculture are under way. Continued attention should be paid to specific agricultural issues in these negotiations [9]. - **Palm Oil**: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.77% month-on-month. Exports increased by 2.5% - 3.4%. Production remained strong, and Indian demand was expected to slow after Diwali, pressuring prices. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy provided bottom support [9]. - **Soybean Oil**: Global soybean supply was abundant, domestic soybean oil inventory was at a historical high and slow to decline, but narrowing crushing margins were not conducive to inventory accumulation [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With capital outflow from the market, bullish sentiment weakened. Good Canadian rapeseed harvests and falling futures prices affected the domestic market. However, domestic supply remained uncertain due to unchanged China-Canada trade policies [10]. 2.2 Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of October 23, 2025, the price of first-grade soybean oil in East China was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan week-on-week; third-grade rapeseed oil was 10,050 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan week-on-week; and 24-degree palm oil in South China was 9,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan week-on-week [12]. - **Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 42nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils was 2.5568 million tons, down 37,600 tons week-on-week, a 1.45% decrease. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.4171 million tons, down 45,600 tons; palm oil inventory was 529,800 tons, up 26,600 tons; and rapeseed oil inventory was 610,000 tons, down 18,500 tons [25]. - **Domestic Oilseeds Supply**: As of the end of the 42nd week, the average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills was 63.89%, up 17.33% from last week. The total soybean crushing volume was 2.389 million tons, up 658,400 tons. The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 7.1882 million tons, up from last week. The estimated arrival volume in October was about 8.807 million tons [28][29]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: The MPOC expected crude palm oil prices to remain above 4,400 ringgit for the rest of the year. From October 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.77% month-on-month according to MPOA data. If Indonesia implemented the B50 policy, its export supply would be reduced [37][43]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of the week of September 23, 2025, commodity funds held a net long position of -18,233 contracts in CBOT soybean futures and options, a decrease of 32,680 contracts from the previous week. In CBOT soybean oil futures and options, the net long position was 8,046 contracts, a decrease of 26,973 contracts [48]. 3. Live Pigs 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The national average live pig slaughter price fluctuated strongly this week. The price increased in the middle and later part of the week due to increased consumption, increased low - price segmentation by northern slaughterhouses, increased reluctance to sell, and reduced large - pig inventory. As of October 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit per head was - 138 yuan, up 50.4 yuan week - on - week; the profit per head for purchasing piglets was - 378.6 yuan, up 53.6 yuan week - on - week [52]. - **Futures Market**: As of Thursday this week, the main live pig futures contract LH2601 rebounded and closed at 12,200 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan/ton from last Thursday, a 2.48% increase, with a basis of - 570 yuan/ton [53]. 3.2 Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply**: The average price of 50 - kg binary sows was 1,546 yuan/head this week, down 1 yuan from last week. According to official data, the theoretical hog slaughter volume is expected to change slightly in the coming months. According to Yongyi data, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms decreased by 0.84% month - on - month in September. Overall, hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly until next June [61][62][63]. - **Medium - Term Supply**: The average price of 15 - kg piglets was 255 yuan/head this week, down 10 yuan from last week. As of September, the inventory of small pigs in sample enterprises increased by 1.42% month - on - month. The theoretical hog slaughter volume is expected to increase slightly from October to next March [77][78]. - **Short - Term Supply**: As of September, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased by 1.77% month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased in September. The proportion of secondary fattening sales increased in mid - October [79][80][81]. - **Current Supply**: In September, the actual slaughter completion rate of the supply side was 96.5%, and the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September. The average slaughter weight this week was 127.90 kg, down 0.35 kg week - on - week [85][86]. - **Import Supply**: In September, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, the same as last month and 20,000 tons less than the same period last year. From January to September 2025, the total pork imports were 790,000 tons, a 11.24% decrease compared with the same period last year [91]. - **Demand**: In mid - October, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening increased, but then cooled as the price rose. The average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises increased by 3.36% week - on - week [93][95]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: On the supply side, hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly in the short and long term, but the pressure has eased. On the demand side, secondary fattening and terminal consumption are expected to improve, but the overall increase may be limited. The spot price is expected to continue to rebound, while the futures price may have limited upward space [100]. - **Strategy**: Futures investors are advised to wait and see; breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions [102]. 4. Corn 4.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: This week, corn prices continued to decline seasonally, but the decline slowed. Northeast corn prices rose, North China prices first rose and then fell, and the selling area prices increased [104]. - **Futures Market**: As of October 23, the Dalian main 2601 contract closed at 2,140 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last Thursday, a 0.19% increase [105]. 4.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The national autumn grain harvest progress is slow. As of the week of October 17, the northern port inventory was 1.04 million tons, up 110,000 tons week - on - week; the southern port inventory was 480,000 tons, up 93,000 tons week - on - week [109]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices continued to rise this week due to tight supply, increased demand, and policy support. As of October 23, the national average corn price was 2,218 yuan/ton, and the wheat price was 2,483 yuan/ton [110]. - **Import Substitute Grains**: In September 2025, China imported 15.83 million tons of grain, a 12.3% increase month - on - month and a 12.5% increase year - on - year. The import volume of various grains showed different trends. The import advantage of substitute grains may weaken in the future [117][118]. - **Feed Demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed production was 30.36 million tons, a 3.4% increase month - on - month and a 5.0% increase year - on - year. Hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly, so feed production is also expected to increase. As of October 23, the average inventory time of national sample feed enterprises was 24.04 days, down 0.40 days from last week [132][133][136]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: As of the week of October 23, the national corn processing volume was 574,000 tons, down 7,600 tons from last week; the corn starch production was 287,700 tons, down 5,800 tons; the开机 rate was 55.62%, down 1.12%. The processing profit of starch enterprises fluctuated slightly. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased by 6.5% from last week [137][139]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 Chinese corn production and consumption forecasts remain unchanged, but the import volume is adjusted down by 1 million tons to 6 million tons. The price is expected to be stable [146][147]. 4.3 Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: On the supply side, new corn is listed, the cost decreases, and the substitution advantage of wheat and imported grains weakens. On the demand side, feed demand is good, but the inventory intention is low, and deep - processing demand recovers. The spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the futures price will fluctuate around the cost [148][149]. - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should purchase on demand; futures investors should hold short positions and reduce positions on dips [149]. 5. Soybean Meal 5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **External Market**: CBOT soybeans were relatively strong due to expectations of China - US negotiations and the US - India agreement. The Brazilian new - season soybean planting progress is faster than last year [153]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly, but was weaker than the external market. The market is concerned about the outcome of China - US negotiations and the high inventory of soybean meal. Investors are advised to hold light positions or use option strategies [154]. 5.2 Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: According to the USDA September report, new - season US soybean planting and harvest areas decreased year - on - year. There is a possibility of further downward adjustment of yield. Brazilian soybean planting progress is fast [155][156][157]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of September 18, US soybean exports were at a low level in the new season, especially exports to China [163]. - **Domestic Soybean Import and Crushing**: As of October 16, the soybean crushing profit was negative. The soybean crushing rate and volume are expected to remain high in the short term. The soybean import volume in September was 12.869 million tons. The port soybean inventory will be high in the near future and then decrease [168][169]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory**: As of October 17, the domestic main oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 853,400 tons, down 87,700 tons from last week. Terminal demand is relatively good [176]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: As of October 23, the basis of the 01 contract decreased, and the 11 - 1 spread was at a low level [182]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 23, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were 42,582 lots, slightly down from last week [186]. 6. Eggs 6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot price first decreased and then rebounded, but the upward pressure appeared on Friday. It is expected to peak and fluctuate next week [188]. - **Futures Market**: The futures price rebounded this week as the spot price stopped falling. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the rebound and sell out - of - the - money call options [188]. 6.2 Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: As of the end of September, the national laying hen inventory was at a historical high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The egg - chick replenishment momentum slowed down in September [189]. - **Inventory Proportion**: In September, the proportion of reserve laying hens under 120 days old decreased, the proportion of 120 - 450 - day - old laying hens increased, and the proportion of hens over 450 days old decreased [192].

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 22nd, the main pig contract 2601 opened flat, then bottomed out and rebounded in a narrow - range oscillation, closing with a negative line. The highest was 12,275 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,135 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,220 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous day. The total position of the index increased by 7 lots to 290,211 lots [6]. - Spot: On the 23rd, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 11.80 yuan/kg, up 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. Pig Review - Supply: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. In the short - term, the pig slaughter volume in October continued to increase significantly, with high supply pressure. However, currently, the slaughter of key provincial breeding enterprises across the country shows a stable and slightly faster rhythm, and the short - term slaughter pressure of large - scale farms has been alleviated to some extent. Also, with the expansion of the price difference between fat and standard pigs, farmers have the sentiment of resisting price cuts and delaying slaughter for weight gain [7]. - Demand: Currently, secondary fattening continues to enter the market due to low meat - making costs and the expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs. After the price rebounded to a high level in some areas, it turned to a wait - and - see attitude. As the weather in the south cools down rapidly, terminal consumer demand may continue to rise, and the demand side may gradually improve. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On October 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 164,600 heads, an increase of 300 heads from the previous day, 1,300 heads week - on - week, and 10,600 heads month - on - month [7]. - Overall: In the spot market, driven by the active replenishment demand of secondary fattening, the short - term supply has decreased, and the supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The spot price continues to oscillate and rebound. In the futures market, the pig supply before the Spring Festival is expected to maintain a slight increase. The demand elasticity of the 2601 contract still exists, and it may rebound driven by the spot market. However, the entry of secondary fattening in October was relatively concentrated, and farmers mostly have the sentiment of hoarding and waiting for weight gain. Coupled with the continuous release of production capacity, it will form double supply pressure in the fourth quarter, and the upward space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of secondary fattening replenishment in the later stage [7]. Data Overview - Breeding Profit: On October 16th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was - 188.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 111 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased from outside was - 432.2 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 112 yuan/head [11]. - Piglet Price: In the week of October 16th, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 265 yuan/head, a decrease of 17 yuan/head from the previous week [11]. - Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs: In the week of October 16th, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.60 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [11]. - Fattening Cost: The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg in this week was 11.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 11.95 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [11]. - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week of October 16th, the average slaughter weight of pigs across the country was 128.25 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%), a decrease of 0.20 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%), and an increase of 1.91 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.51%) [11]. - Slaughtering Enterprise开工率: In the week of October 16th, the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year. The opening rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 30.95 - 34.44% during the week, and the enterprise opening rate increased slowly [11].

农产品日报 | 2025-10-23 需求略有回暖，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约12220元/吨，较前交易日变动-15.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.87元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.04元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-350，较前交易日变动+55；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 12.08元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.29元/公斤，现货基差LH01-140，较前交易日变动+305；四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.41元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.20元/公斤，现货基差LH01-810，较前交易日变动+215。 综合来看，近期生猪现货价格受二次育肥需求火热支撑坚挺，但二次育肥是生猪再生产环节，并未改变市场总供 应而且会导致几月后的生猪供应进一步增加，当前二次育肥主要由散户承接，且散户更倾向养殖大肥猪，这直接 导致生猪供应后移问题凸显。供需节奏的变化使得市场"跷跷板效应"明显，近月合约与现货价格坚挺，远期合约 因预期供应增加而表现趋弱。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 政策变化 鸡蛋观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘鸡蛋 2511 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-10-22 供应压力仍存，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约12235元/吨，较前交易日变动+80.00元/吨，幅度+0.66%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.83元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.25元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-405，较前交易日变动+170；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.79元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.23元/公斤，现货基差LH01-445，较前交易日变动+150；四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.21元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.33元/公斤，现货基差LH01-1025，较前交易日变动+250。 据农业农村部监测，10月21日"农产品批发价格200指数"为120.40，比昨天上升0.27个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为121.60，比昨天上升0.32个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.70元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；牛肉66.21 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；羊肉62.10元/公斤，比昨天上升0.6%；鸡蛋7.38元/公斤，比昨天下降1.3%；白条鸡17.50 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%。 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and the demand elasticity of the 2601 contract remains. Driven by the spot market, it may rebound. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of second - round fattening purchases in the later stage [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 21st, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest was 12,315 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,235 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 593 lots to 290,204 lots [8] - Spot: On the 21st, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 11.49 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In October, the planned live pig出栏量 of sample enterprises increased by 5.14% compared with the actual出栏量 in September. The出栏量 may continue to increase significantly, and the supply pressure remains high. The average slaughter weight increases seasonally. In the long term, the live pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year [9] - Demand: Currently, due to low meat - making costs, an expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs, and low pen utilization rates, the enthusiasm for second - round fattening is high, which diverts part of the supply. As the weather in the south turns cold rapidly, terminal consumer demand may continue to rise, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, with a slight increase in the operating rate and slaughter volume [9] Operation Suggestions - Spot: The supply and demand of live pigs have both increased, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. However, currently driven by the active demand for second - round fattening, the supply has decreased temporarily, and the spot price continues to fluctuate and rebound [9] - Futures: The live pig supply before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The 2601 contract still has demand elasticity and may rebound driven by the spot market. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of second - round fattening purchases in the later stage [9] Group 5: Industry News - On October 16, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 188.5 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 111 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 432.2 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 112 yuan/head [10][12] Group 6: Data Overview - On the week of October 16, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 265 yuan/head, a decrease of 17 yuan/head from the previous week [14] - On the week of October 16, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.60 yuan/jin, a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [14] - The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 11.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 11.95 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [14] - As of the week of October 16, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.25 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week (a weekly decrease of 0.18%), a decrease of 0.20 kg from the previous month (a monthly decrease of 0.16%), and an increase of 1.91 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.51%) [14] - On the week of October 16, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year. The enterprise operating rate fluctuated in the range of 30.95 - 34.44% during the week, and the enterprise operation increased slowly [14]