Core Viewpoint - The price of live pigs has been continuously declining in November, with a national average price of 11.68 yuan per kilogram as of November 6, reflecting a decrease of 0.41 yuan per kilogram over four working days [1] Supply Analysis - In November, the planned output from 229 sample breeding enterprises decreased by 4.95% month-on-month, which is expected to support pig prices. However, stable demand and a decline in secondary fattening enthusiasm have led to downward pressure on prices [3] - In October, some breeding enterprises accelerated their output due to a bearish outlook, resulting in a completion rate of 108.08% for their output plans, alleviating supply pressure in November [3] - Daily output from breeding enterprises increased at the beginning of November, with a recorded output of 201,800 pigs on November 6, an increase of 34,700 pigs over four working days, which negatively impacts pig prices [3] - The average trading weight of pigs has remained stable at 124.65 kg as of November 6, indicating that breeding enterprises are reducing weight and accelerating output, further increasing supply and exerting downward pressure on prices [3][4] Demand Analysis - The slaughter volume of pigs has shown a relatively stable trend from late October to early November, with a slight increase to 184,100 pigs on November 6, having minimal impact on prices [4] - The enthusiasm for secondary fattening increased after prices dropped to a relatively low level in mid-October, but this enthusiasm has waned since late October as the fattening replenishment process has been largely completed [6] Overall Summary - The combination of accelerated output from breeding enterprises, declining enthusiasm for secondary fattening, and stable demand has resulted in a continuous decline in pig prices at the beginning of November [7]

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 07, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year, and the second-round fattening and holding in October have increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, the planned sales volume in November decreased by 3.27% month-on-month compared with the actual sales volume in October, with the daily average remaining flat. At the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm for slaughter was average, and the sentiment of reluctance to sell increased in some regions. On the demand side, after the current spot price rebounded to a high level, the second-round fattening is mainly on the sidelines. As the weather continues to cool, the terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises fluctuate slightly. The pickling and sausage-making in the middle and late months may increase slightly. Overall, the spot market will be mainly volatile, while the futures market will be weak in the medium and long term and may rebound in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 6th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened flat, then fluctuated narrowly after hitting a low and rebounding, and closed down at the end of the session. The highest was 11,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,860 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,940 yuan/ton, up 0.67% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 917 lots to 351,356 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 6th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 11.79 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. 2. Industry News - Not provided 3. Data Overview - **Profit**: As of October 30, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was -34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit per pig purchased as a piglet was -258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [12]. - **Utilization Rate**: As of October 31, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 55.5%, a month - on - month increase of 21.2 percentage points, and the same as the same period last year [12]. - **Price Difference**: As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [12]. - **Cost**: As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [12]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide in October was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [12]. - **Slaughter Volume**: In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Poultry and Oilseeds**: The market is affected by the US tariff decision and high domestic inventory, with poor profit control and limited support for demand. Future soybean procurement may face challenges, but the support for soybean meal is expected to increase [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil futures may face further downward pressure, while domestic palm oil and soybean oil futures are expected to show a volatile rebound. The demand for domestic soybean oil is expected to remain stable, and the basis quotation is expected to have limited fluctuation [2]. - **Hogs**: The current hog market is in a range - bound pattern, with limited downward space. The slowdown of the overall slaughter progress in November may boost hog prices to some extent. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish in single - side operations, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The supply in the Northeast and North China regions is stable. The demand side shows general inventory - building enthusiasm in the trading sector. The corn market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and there is a selling pressure expectation in November [7]. - **Sugar**: The expected increase in supply surplus and weakening energy prices have led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is under pressure but has significant cost support at around 5400. The spot market is tepid, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [12]. - **Cotton**: The new cotton cost provides strong support for cotton prices, but there is also hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, but the inventory pressure is not large. Short - term cotton prices are expected to oscillate within a range [13]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the egg market still faces a supply - exceeding - demand situation. The price is expected to be in a difficult - to - rise - or - fall state initially and then gradually transition to a slow - rising trend. The egg price is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Poultry and Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The futures price of M2601 is 3068 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The basis of M2601 is - 8 yuan/ton, up 81.40%. The spot basis quotation in Jiangsu is m2601 - 60 [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of RM2601 is 2549 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The basis of RM2601 is 1 yuan/ton, down 92.31% [1]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4146 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The basis of the main soybean contract is - 226 yuan/ton, down 11.33% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 is 241 yuan/ton, down 3.21%. The rapeseed meal inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 is 133 yuan/ton, up 0.76%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.74, down 0.86%, and that of the main contract is 2.67, up 0.78% [1]. Oils and Fats - **Palm Oil**: The current price of first - grade palm oil in Jiangsu is 8390 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The futures price of Y2601 is 8188 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The basis of Y2601 is 202 yuan/ton, down 16.53% [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: The current price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9780 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The futures price of OI601 is 9564 yuan/ton, up 1.67%. The basis of OI601 is 216 yuan/ton, down 37.03% [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed - soybean oil spread of 2601 is 1376 yuan/ton, up 8.43%. The soybean oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 is 182 yuan/ton, down 3.19% [2]. Hogs - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis is - 40 yuan/ton, up 57.89%. The futures price of hog 2605 is 12040 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The futures price of hog 2601 is 11940 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 11900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong is 12020 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2601 is 2154 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is - 4 yuan/ton, down 125.00% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2601 is 2469 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. The spot price in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is 41 yuan/ton, down 30.51% [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 is 5448 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The futures price of sugar 2605 is 5388 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.22 cents/pound, up 0.71% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The spot price in Kunming is 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Nanning basis is 362 yuan/ton, up 17.92% [12]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2605 is 13615 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The futures price of cotton 2601 is 13605 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The ICE US cotton main contract is 64.48 cents/pound, down 0.91% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of 3128B in Xinjiang is 14618 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The CC Index of 3128B is 14820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 172.02 tons, up 69.85 tons. The industrial inventory is 80.93 tons, down 3.62 tons [13]. Eggs - **Futures Indicators**: The futures price of the egg 12 - contract is 3227 yuan/500KG, up 0.31%. The futures price of the egg 01 - contract is 3386 yuan/500KG, up 0.03% [15]. - **Spot Indicators**: The egg price in the production area is 2.93 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The egg - feed ratio is 2.38, up 0.03 [15].

Group 1 - The average price of external three-yuan pigs in China on November 5, 2025, was 11.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The average price of piglets increased by 0.15 yuan/kg to 18.75 yuan/kg, while the average price of pork dropped by 0.25 yuan/kg to 15.95 yuan/kg [1] - The pig feed-to-meat ratio was 3.54:1, a reduction of 0.04 from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The national average pig price showed a downward trend, with a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg, and prices in some regions of South China, Southwest, and Northwest fell below 11.5 yuan/kg [2] - The increase in pig prices in late October was attributed to a temporary tightening of supply due to concentrated second fattening, but this trend has reversed as the enthusiasm for second fattening has decreased [2] - Market sentiment is mixed, with expectations of price fluctuations, particularly in the northern low-price areas, where a rebound is possible but limited [2]

Core Insights - The recent monitoring by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a mixed trend in the prices of 50 key production materials, with 26 products experiencing price increases and 22 seeing declines, highlighting a significant rise in live pig prices by 10.1% to 12.0 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 1: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Short-term increases in pig prices are driven by seasonal consumption recovery and heightened secondary fattening sentiment [2] - Despite the short-term price fluctuations, medium-term projections suggest that high supply pressure will likely keep pig prices from rising significantly [2] - The overall sentiment in the pig farming sector remains weak, with the market experiencing a situation where supply growth outpaces demand growth [2][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply-demand balance shows strong supply against weak demand, leading to a notable supply surplus [4] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has reported a decrease in the number of breeding sows, with a target to reduce the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million heads [5] - The focus on controlling production capacity and reducing low-quality production is expected to stabilize pig prices and farming profits [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - As the weather cools towards the end of the year, demand for heavier pigs is anticipated to increase, particularly in southern regions due to traditional consumption patterns [2] - However, the consensus in the industry suggests that the expected peak season for pig consumption may not materialize, maintaining the trend of supply growth exceeding demand growth [2][4]

受二育补栏提振，国内生猪价格近期有所企稳。但往后看，二次育肥补栏高峰已过，对猪价的影响也将 由利多转向利空。因此，由于未来两个月，即11月至12月的两轮出栏均会加码供应，这意味着这两个月 猪价欲破新阶段高点，需要消费端的强有力支撑。但考虑到2026年春节时间较晚等因素，猪价上涨缺乏 屠宰端增量支撑，预计猪价刷年内新高的可能性不大。 具体来看，根据农业农村部监测全国能繁母猪存栏和卓创资讯对能繁母猪存栏量在200头以上规模企业 能繁母猪数据推算，11-12月生猪理论供应量或连续增加。这具体表现在，一方面，根据近7年屠宰量季 节性走势分析，11-12月生猪屠宰量或呈逐步增量的走势，其中11月增幅较小，12月增幅较大。另一方 面，10月规模场前期放量出栏，猪价与散户价差较小，出栏压力较小，月度出栏进度较快，下旬部分养 殖场选择将下月出栏计划提前至10月出栏，因此11月上旬养殖端出栏节奏或偏慢，11月中旬至12月底或 逐步加快。尤其是12月腌腊旺季一般是大猪需求高峰期，养殖端也会选择在这期间集中出栏大体重猪 源，12月供应量增幅或超过11月。 因此，根据理论出栏量与理论屠宰量走势分析，11-12月生猪市场或供增需增，理 ...

Report Title - "Pigs: Contradictions Accumulating, Potential Further Decline in the Central Price during the Distant Off - season" [1] Report Date - November 2, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The central price of live pig spot and futures may further decline. For the spot market, the supply pressure is large and the demand is expected to weaken, leading to a lower price center. For the futures market, due to factors such as inventory pressure and supply increase, the price centers of relevant contracts are also expected to decline [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review (October 27 - November 2) 3.1.1 Spot Market - Pig prices fluctuated strongly. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 19.95 yuan/kg (last week: 19.4 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 12.53 yuan/kg (last week: 11.98 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The supply side saw enterprises slightly reduce volume at the end of the month, while the willingness of individual farmers to sell increased. The demand side was weakened as rising prices suppressed demand and the willingness to store in cold storage decreased. The average slaughter weight nationwide this week was 124.51KG (last week: 124.75KG), a 0.19% decrease [2] 3.1.2 Futures Market - Pig futures prices showed weak performance. The highest price of the LH2601 contract this week was 12,445 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,810 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,815 yuan/ton (last week: 12,170 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2601 contract was 715 yuan/ton (last week: - 195 yuan/ton) [2] 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (November 3 - November 9) 3.2.1 Spot Market - Live pig spot prices are expected to run weakly. Low prices in October stimulated demand and cold storage, and the widening price difference between fat and standard pigs drove the enthusiasm for secondary fattening. However, there was a negative feedback at the terminal, limiting further price increases. From the supply perspective, the market supply is in a continuous increasing stage, and the supply pressure is large. From the demand perspective, although low prices in October stimulated demand, the demand is expected to weaken in November. Overall, the price center will further decline [3] 3.2.2 Futures Market - The price of the LH2601 contract closed at 11,810 yuan/ton on October 31. The large - scale entry of secondary fattening in October led to a negative feedback at the terminal, a decrease in slaughter volume, and a weakening of spot prices. There is a large pressure to reduce weight in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to fully digest inventory pressure before the Spring Festival. The supply pressure is expected to be realized in the March and May contracts. It is expected that the price center will further decline, with a short - term support level of 11,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 12,300 yuan/ton for the LH2601 contract [4] 3.3 Other Data - This week's basis was 715 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 monthly spread was 440 yuan/ton [8] - This week's average weight was 124.51KG (last week: 124.75KG). In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, a 5.9% month - on - month increase; in September, pork imports were 80,600 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease [12]

Core Viewpoint - The pig price experienced a rise in late October, returning to the 6 yuan era, but has since shown signs of stagnation and slight decline as of November, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [2][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of the end of Q3 2025, the national breeding sow inventory stands at 40.35 million heads, which is above the normal holding level of 39 million heads, suggesting an oversupply in the pig industry [2]. - The total pig inventory reached 437 million heads by the end of Q3, reflecting a 2.9% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 2.3% increase year-on-year, indicating that the supply of pigs is increasing rather than decreasing [2]. - Cumulative pig slaughter in the first three quarters was approximately 530 million heads, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, further emphasizing the supply pressure in the market [2][4]. Seasonal Trends - The fourth quarter is typically a peak season for pork consumption, which also correlates with increased slaughter rates. Even maintaining the current growth rate, the total pig slaughter for 2025 could reach 710 million heads, just below the 726 million heads in 2023 [4]. Market Sentiment and Price Support - The previous rise in pig prices was largely driven by secondary fattening, but the current market expectations are low, leading to decreased enthusiasm for this practice due to rising costs [6]. - Two main factors currently support pig prices: the ongoing large pig market and market sentiment. As long as the price difference between large and standard pigs remains profitable, there will be some incentive for secondary fattening [7]. - Market sentiment remains stable due to upcoming consumption peaks in the fourth quarter, such as for preserved meats and holiday celebrations, which may prevent immediate price drops despite the lack of upward momentum [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the fundamentals remain loose, and the rebound in spot and futures prices for live pigs is limited due to ongoing supply pressures and market sentiment [1][47]. Group 2 - From the price trend perspective, live pig spot prices have continued to decline since the second half of the year, with national benchmark prices dropping from 13.69 yuan/kg to 10.81 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.88 yuan/kg [1][4]. - Futures prices have also seen a significant decline, with the LH2601 contract falling from a high of 15,070 yuan/ton to a low of 11,655 yuan/ton, a drop of 3,415 points [1][2]. Group 3 - The number of breeding sows has not decreased significantly, with the Ministry of Agriculture reporting a slight reduction from 40.43 million in June to 40.35 million in September, indicating that supply remains ample [7][9]. - The birth of piglets has shown steady growth, with the number of newborn piglets increasing from 4.75 million to 5.67 million, a rise of 19.4% [11][12]. Group 4 - National pig inventory and market supply continue to increase, with the total number of pigs slaughtered in the first three quarters reaching 52.992 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [16][17]. - The inventory structure shows an increase in heavier pigs, with the proportion of pigs over 140 kg rising significantly, indicating ongoing supply pressure [16][19]. Group 5 - The planned slaughter volume for September was 13.32 million, but the actual slaughter was only 12.697 million, indicating unfulfilled targets and ongoing supply pressure [20][21]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has shown limited fluctuation, with a slight increase in average weight despite price declines [25][26]. Group 6 - Demand for pork is showing signs of recovery, driven by lower temperatures and previous price declines, with wholesale prices rising from 14.4 yuan/kg to 16.2 yuan/kg [30][31]. - The operating rate of slaughterhouses has increased, reaching a peak of 37.24% by the end of September, indicating a recovery in demand [30][33]. Group 7 - The price difference between white pigs and live pigs has narrowed significantly, indicating ongoing pressure on slaughterhouse profitability [38][39]. - The price difference between standard and fat pigs has expanded, suggesting limited supply of fat pigs due to production adjustments [38][43]. Group 8 - Overall, the supply-demand balance remains loose, with limited upward price movement expected in the near term, and the market is advised to consider selling at higher prices [47][48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg industry is also cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Report's Core View - For the pig market, although the current second - fattening sentiment is high, it doesn't change the total supply in the market and will increase future supply. The short - term price is firm due to second - fattening, but the long - term supply pressure remains large, and changes in second - fattening and production capacity need attention [2] - For the egg market, the overall demand is weak. Although the egg sales have accelerated this week, it's short - lived. There is inventory accumulation in the production area, and the demand is at a normal off - season level. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is hard to change in the short term [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,880 yuan/ton, a change of - 305.00 yuan/ton (- 2.50%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 12.49 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.14 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.71 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.05 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.30 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.03 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 17.96 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease from yesterday [1] Market Analysis - Second - fattening is mainly undertaken by retail investors who prefer to raise large fat pigs, leading to a prominent problem of postponed pig supply. The short - term price is firm, but the long - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [2] Strategy - The strategy is cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3157 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 8.00 yuan (- 0.25%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.89 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 2.73 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.06 yuan/jin. On October 30, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.11 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days, both unchanged from yesterday [3][4] Market Analysis - The overall demand is weak. The egg sales have accelerated this week but briefly. There is inventory accumulation in the production area, and the terminal purchases on - demand. There is no short - term positive boost, and each link focuses on digesting previous inventory [5] Strategy - The strategy is cautiously bearish as the number of laying hens in production remains high and is difficult to reduce quickly in the short term, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is hard to change [6]