Macro Insights - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will announce several major financial policies, with key speeches from the Governor of the People's Bank of China and the Deputy Governor [3] Bond Market Alerts - Jilin Credit Financing Guarantee Investment Group disclosed three major litigation cases involving financial loan contract disputes, indicating that the company is operating normally and its financial status is good [5] - Zhaoyang Urban Construction Investment Co., Ltd. is listed as an executor in two cases due to loan contract disputes, with liabilities totaling 65 million yuan [6][14] - China Huayang Economic and Trade Group failed to pay due on bonds, leading to substantial default, with the bankruptcy administrator announcing criminal charges against the issuer [8] - Gansu Energy Chemical's coal mine experienced a flooding accident, resulting in three fatalities, raising concerns about safety management and profitability due to falling coal prices [9] - Xi'an New District's project revenue significantly underperformed expectations, with actual income of 8.1 million yuan against a forecast of 260.2 million yuan, although it has not adversely affected the company's debt repayment ability [10] Stock Market Alerts - The China Securities Index Company announced regular adjustments to the CSI 300 and other indices, with several companies being added to the indices [16] - BYD's management refuted claims that it is akin to "Evergrande in the auto industry," asserting that mainstream Chinese automakers have better asset-liability situations compared to foreign counterparts [19] - ST Dongshi is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected information disclosure violations [20] - ST Tianyu's actual controller is under investigation for fund misappropriation, but it is not expected to significantly impact the company's operations [21] - ST Jinglan is also under investigation for information disclosure violations, with no major impact on daily operations anticipated [22] - ST Yazhen warned of potential stock price volatility after a significant increase of 93.14% in its stock price [23] Industry Alerts - Major pig farming companies have received notifications to suspend the expansion of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs for sale, indicating regulatory tightening in the industry [41] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported a 10.8% year-on-year decline in profits for internet enterprises from January to April, despite a 1.5% increase in internet business revenue [42]

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 30 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，29 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后探底回升震荡走高，尾盘收阳， 最高 13690 元/吨，最低 13380 元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: SPPOMA's significant decline in the first 25 - day production increase and the increase in the first 25 - day exports announced by shipping agencies will limit the downside of the market. However, the domestic Dalian palm oil futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the weak performance of Malaysian palm oil and the increase in domestic port inventories [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are deteriorating. Spot soybean oil will continue to be weaker than futures, and the basis quote is expected to decline. Although CBOT soybean oil is supported by the US biodiesel policy and the promotion of green energy, it is also affected by the possible tariff increase on EU goods by Trump and the decline of CBOT soybeans [1]. Meal - The two - meal futures in the domestic market are expected to maintain a volatile structure. The spring sowing of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the supply pressure from Brazil is still being realized. The abundant arrival of soybeans in the domestic market will suppress the cost of domestic soybean meal, but the low inventory of oil mills and the low basis limit the downside [2]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded slightly. Although the improvement in supply - demand is limited, the reduction in the supply of breeding groups at the end of the month and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand have contributed to the rebound. The 09 contract has also rebounded, and the market is expected to neither decline significantly nor have strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the support around 13,500 [4][5]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market will maintain a narrow - range volatile trend. The supply and price are affected by traders' selling rhythm. The downstream deep - processing industry's continuous losses and the substitution expectation of wheat put pressure on corn. In the long term, the tightening supply, reduced imports and substitution, and increased breeding demand will support the upward movement of corn prices [7]. Sugar - The supply outlook for the 25/26 sugar season is optimistic, with smooth harvesting in Brazil's central - southern region and a good start of the monsoon season in Thailand. The raw sugar is expected to be weak and volatile, with a risk of falling below 17 cents per pound. The domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the future import rhythm and the increasing long - term supply [10]. Cotton - The downstream demand for cotton has resilience, and the basis of cotton spot is firm, providing strong support for cotton prices. However, the weak long - term demand expectation limits the upward movement of cotton prices. In the short term, the domestic cotton market is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively sufficient, which has a negative impact on egg prices. The demand is expected to first decrease and then increase, and the egg price is expected to first fall and then rise slightly this week [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices and Changes**: For soybeans, the spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.61% to 8,120 yuan, and the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 0.53% to 7,530 yuan. For palm oil, the spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.93% to 8,520 yuan, and the futures price of P2509 decreased by 0.43% to 7,920 yuan. For rapeseed oil, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 9,610 yuan, and the futures price of 01509 decreased by 0.44% to 9,026 yuan [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread have changed to varying degrees. For example, the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 7.76% to - 250 yuan [1]. Meal - **Prices and Changes**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased by 0.68% to 2,940 yuan, and the futures price of M2509 decreased by 0.07% to 2,950 yuan. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 0.40% to 2,510 yuan, and the futures price of RM2509 increased by 0.39% to 2,566 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 1.96% to - 52 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal increased by 6.85% to 234 yuan [2]. Live Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures prices of the main contract and the 2507 and 2509 contracts of live pigs have all increased. The spot prices in various regions have also rebounded to varying degrees, with the largest increase of 550 yuan in Liaoning [4]. - **Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 1.42%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100%, and the self - breeding and外购 breeding profits decreased by 40.23% and 133.32% respectively [4]. Corn - **Prices and Changes**: The futures price of corn 2507 decreased by 0.39% to 2,318 yuan, and the futures price of corn starch 2507 decreased by 0.38% to 2,653 yuan. The basis of corn and corn starch has changed, with the corn basis increasing by 128.57% [7]. - **Indicators**: The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing industry in the morning increased by 15.67%, and the import profit of corn increased by 2.80% [7]. Sugar - **Prices and Changes**: The futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.11%, and the futures price of sugar 2509 increased by 0.03%. The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained stable or decreased slightly [10]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national cumulative sugar production and sales have increased, and the industrial inventory has decreased. The cumulative national and Guangxi sugar sales rates have increased [10]. Cotton - **Prices and Changes**: The futures price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.19%, and the futures price of cotton 2601 decreased by 0.19%. The spot prices in Xinjiang and other regions have changed slightly [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: The commercial and industrial inventories of cotton have decreased, and the cotton outbound shipment volume has increased by 22.6%. The export volume of textile yarns, fabrics and products, and clothing and accessories has changed to varying degrees [12]. Eggs - **Prices and Changes**: The futures prices of the 09 and 06 contracts of eggs have increased slightly. The egg - laying hen chick price remained unchanged, and the淘汰 chicken price decreased by 1.92% [13]. - **Indicators**: The basis of eggs increased by 42.40%, and the breeding profit increased by 7.32% [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Market Review (5.19 - 5.25)**: In the spot market, pig prices were weak. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 43 yuan/kg (last week: 44.1 yuan/kg), and the price of live pigs in Henan was 14.3 yuan/kg (last week: 14.85 yuan/kg). The price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1631 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). On the supply side, the willingness of individual farmers to sell increased, and group farms also increased their sales. On the demand side, recent demand was weak, and slaughter volume was slightly lower than expected, but the demand for secondary fattening increased in the second half of the week. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 126.5KG (last week: 126.42KG), a week-on-week increase of 0.06%. In the futures market, pig futures prices were also weak. The highest price of the LH2509 contract was 13,730 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,475 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,515 yuan/ton (last week: 13,660 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 785 yuan/ton (last week: 1,190 yuan/ton) [1][2]. - **Market Outlook (5.26 - 6.1)**: In the spot market, pig prices will fluctuate weakly. During the off - season, the adjustment of group farm sales has a significant impact on prices. In early May, group farms reduced sales to support prices, but in the middle and late May, downstream consumption was weak, slaughter volume remained low, and enterprises increased sales, causing prices to drop rapidly. There is still room for inventory accumulation, but the incremental driving force for inventory accumulation is limited. The speculative demand in May still has support, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing. In the futures market, the price of the LH2509 contract closed at 13,515 yuan/ton on May 23. There are signs of passive pig retention, and the central price of the futures market will continue to decline. If secondary fattening fails to form a concentrated entry situation, the inventory reduction stage may be long, and the price difference structure will switch to a reverse spread pattern. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The prices of piglets, live pigs, and binary sows were provided, along with changes in supply and demand. The average slaughter weight increased slightly week - on - week [1]. - **Futures Market**: The price range, closing price, and basis of the LH2509 contract were given, showing a weak trend [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Spot Market**: The impact of group farm sales adjustment on prices, supply and demand conditions, and inventory accumulation were analyzed, indicating a weak price trend [3]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2509 contract, the situation of passive pig retention, the possible price difference structure change, and the short - term support and pressure levels were discussed [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Month - to - Month Difference**: The basis was 785 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 month - to - month difference was - 310 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average slaughter weight was 126.5KG. In March, pork production was 508 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%. In April, pork imports were 80,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.8% [12].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-05-16 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 5 月 16 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，较 上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；广东 14.9-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育 强势进场，部分养殖户预计加快出栏节奏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，猪肉消费转 淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动 进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二 育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能 提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险， ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，15 日生猪主力 2509 合约小幅低开后震荡下跌，尾盘收阴，最高 14015 元/吨，最低 13735 元/吨， ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 15 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 期货方面，14 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 14 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of live pigs is increasing and shifting backward, with prices under pressure but limited decline due to the discounted futures price. Egg prices are supported in the short - term but face long - term supply pressure. Oils have rebounded due to improved macro - environment and USDA report, but face supply pressure in the short - term and are expected to decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and strong in the long - term. Corn prices are supported in the short - term and have upward drivers in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On May 14, spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has weakened, and later supply will increase. Demand is limited, and the overall supply - demand game intensifies, with prices fluctuating. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase from May to September 2024, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy is to wait for a rebound and short on the high side [1]. Eggs - On May 14, prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable. Short - term prices are supported by the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but supply pressure is increasing. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase, and the 06 contract may face pressure if the festival effect is weak. The strategy is to short lightly on the rebound for the 06 contract and be bearish on 08 and 09 contracts [2]. Oils - **Palm Oil**: MPOB April report is neutral - bearish, and May data shows high production and weak exports, with large inventory accumulation pressure in Malaysia. In China, inventory is decreasing but is expected to rise from May. The 07 contract faces pressure at 3900 - 4000 [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA May report is bullish, but the rise of US soybeans is limited. In China, soybean arrivals will increase from May to July, and inventory is expected to accumulate [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: ICE rapeseed rebounds due to improved macro - environment and tight domestic supply. In China, inventory is at a high level, but if supply tightens, inventory is expected to decrease [6]. - Overall, oils rebound in May, but short - term supply pressure limits the rebound height. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The strategy is to short cautiously after a rebound for 09 contracts and consider spreading strategies for bean - palm and rapeseed - palm 09 contracts [7][8]. Soybean Meal - US soybeans are rebounding, but the upside is limited. In China, soybean arrivals will increase from May to July, and prices are expected to decline in the short - term. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to increased costs and weather disturbances. The strategy is to short on the high side for the 09 contract in the short - term and go long on the low side in the long - term [8]. Corn - On May 13, prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang were stable. Short - term supply is tight, supporting prices, but the upside may be limited. In the long - term, there are upward drivers, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to be bullish in the long - term, go long at the lower end of the 07 contract range, and consider a 9 - 1 spread positive arbitrage [9]. Today's Futures Market Overview - CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, ICE rapeseed, and egg futures prices changed on May 13. Other varieties such as soybean meal, corn, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil also had price fluctuations [10].

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 13 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，12 日生猪主力 2509 合约小幅低开后震荡走低，尾盘收阴，最高 13930 元/吨，最低 13855 元/吨，收盘报 13870 元/吨，较 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, pig prices are oscillating strongly. From May 5 - 11, the price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 45 yuan/kg, the pig price in Henan rose from 14.85 yuan/kg last week to 15 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide dropped from 1635 yuan/head last week to 1631 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight increased by 0.18% week - on - week to 126.51KG. In the futures market, the pig futures price is oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract closed at 13925 yuan/ton on May 9, and its basis widened from 940 yuan/ton last week to 1075 yuan/ton [2]. - Looking ahead to May 12 - 18, the spot price of pigs will oscillate and adjust. In the off - season, the group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing, and the actual pressure can only be judged after the selling pressure test. For the futures market, the short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity, with stop - profit and stop - loss in mind. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review (May 5 - 11) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices are oscillating strongly. The supply side shows that large - scale farms have no intention to actively sell and reduce weight in May, and small farmers are reluctant to sell. The demand side has the frozen - fresh price difference supporting regular demand, and the secondary fattening procurement demand has weakened compared to before the festival. The average national slaughter weight increased slightly [2]. - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices are oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract has a certain price range, and the basis has widened [2] 3.2 Market Outlook (May 12 - 18) - **Spot Market**: The price will oscillate and adjust. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume in the off - season has a large impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing [3]. - **Futures Market**: The short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity. The short - term support and pressure levels of the LH2509 contract are 13000 yuan/ton and 15000 yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week, the basis is 1075 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 monthly spread is - 430 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week is 126.51KG. In March, the pork output was 508 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%, and the pork import was 9.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [12].