行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 15 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 期货方面，14 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 14 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 14 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.6-15.4 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.4-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15.1- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，部分养殖户预计节后出 栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升，二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增 加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏 损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧， 猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁 母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增 加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强 需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库 以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去 化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上限，四季度供应压力仍 大，远 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 13 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，12 日生猪主力 2509 合约小幅低开后震荡走低，尾盘收阴，最高 13930 元/吨，最低 13855 元/吨，收盘报 13870 元/吨，较 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, pig prices are oscillating strongly. From May 5 - 11, the price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 45 yuan/kg, the pig price in Henan rose from 14.85 yuan/kg last week to 15 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide dropped from 1635 yuan/head last week to 1631 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight increased by 0.18% week - on - week to 126.51KG. In the futures market, the pig futures price is oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract closed at 13925 yuan/ton on May 9, and its basis widened from 940 yuan/ton last week to 1075 yuan/ton [2]. - Looking ahead to May 12 - 18, the spot price of pigs will oscillate and adjust. In the off - season, the group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing, and the actual pressure can only be judged after the selling pressure test. For the futures market, the short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity, with stop - profit and stop - loss in mind. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review (May 5 - 11) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices are oscillating strongly. The supply side shows that large - scale farms have no intention to actively sell and reduce weight in May, and small farmers are reluctant to sell. The demand side has the frozen - fresh price difference supporting regular demand, and the secondary fattening procurement demand has weakened compared to before the festival. The average national slaughter weight increased slightly [2]. - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices are oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract has a certain price range, and the basis has widened [2] 3.2 Market Outlook (May 12 - 18) - **Spot Market**: The price will oscillate and adjust. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume in the off - season has a large impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing [3]. - **Futures Market**: The short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity. The short - term support and pressure levels of the LH2509 contract are 13000 yuan/ton and 15000 yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week, the basis is 1075 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 monthly spread is - 430 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week is 126.51KG. In March, the pork output was 508 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%, and the pork import was 9.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pig Market**: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and pig prices fluctuate frequently. In the long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices face a downward risk. The overall trend is weak and volatile [1]. - **Egg Market**: In the short - term, the egg price is under pressure due to increased supply and decreased demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure increases, and the far - month valuation is under pressure [2]. - **Oil Market**: After the holiday, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market and international crude oil to fluctuate weakly. In the second quarter, the overall oils are dragged down by the increase in soybean and palm oil arrivals, and may rebound in the third quarter [8]. - **Soybean Meal Market**: In the short - term, the price of soybean meal is expected to decline with the relaxation of supply and demand. In the long - term, due to increased costs and weather disturbances, the price is expected to be strong [9]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, although there is an upward driving force, the upside space is limited due to substitutes [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable compared to the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Secondary fattening entry enthusiasm weakens, and post - festival demand is weak. Long - term: Supply increases from April to September 2024, and the supply pressure is still large in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: The overall trend is weak and volatile, and short positions should be stopped for profit. Long - term: Wait for a rebound to go short at high prices [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: After the May Day holiday, demand falls, and supply accumulates. Long - term: High replenishment volume leads to an increasing supply trend [2]. - **Strategy**: 06 contract: Low - level shock. 08 and 09 contracts: Treat with a bearish logic [2]. Oil - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures rose [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia: Production increases more than exports, and prices are under pressure. China: There is an expectation of inventory recovery and supply loosening in the second quarter [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean futures are under short - term pressure. In China, the supply pressure is large in the second quarter [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply in Canada is tightening. In China, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease in the second quarter [7]. - **Strategy**: 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Be cautious about shorting palm oil, and wait and see for soybean and rapeseed oils [8]. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean 07 contract rose. The premium quotation is weak [9]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short - term, supply and demand are loosening, and prices are falling. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors [9]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: Go short at high prices for the 09 contract. Long - term: Go long at low prices [9]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 8, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Supply is tight, and prices have support. Long - term: There is an upward driving force, but the upside space is limited [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long, and be cautious about chasing up [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - It shows the prices, price changes of various varieties such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day [11].

Group 1: Core Breeding and Sales - The company operates three core breeding farms and four binary breeding farms, ranking first nationally in Duroc pig breeding for several years [1] - The company focuses on balanced breeding to improve growth speed and reproductive performance, aiming to shorten the time to market and enhance barn utilization [1] - The company anticipates that the current price of piglets will remain stable until October, with a low likelihood of prices falling below cost during the off-season [1] Group 2: Feed Sales and Market Dynamics - The feed distributor primarily sells pig feed to local smallholders, with sales volume around 1,200 tons per month, peaking at 1,400-1,500 tons [1] - The distributor notes a decline in self-breeding households due to stricter environmental regulations [1] Group 3: Pig Raising and Market Conditions - The contract farmer in Sichuan raises 7,000 pigs across two farms, with a total raising fee of approximately 220 yuan per pig [2] - The farmer highlights significant issues with piglet diarrhea affecting growth rates, leading to a desire for heavier pigs among both smallholders and larger farms [2] - A breeding company with a 200-head boar station believes piglet prices will remain high, with traditional seasonal price increases expected [2] Group 4: Trade and Supply Chain - A trading company focuses on pig trade, moving 5-6 trucks of pigs to slaughterhouses daily, with peak volumes reaching 30-40 trucks [3] - The company observes a stable price for piglets, predicting limited price increases but a potential decline after the end of the second fattening phase [3] - Another trading firm has shifted focus to piglet trade and reports increased supply of heavier pigs post-Qingming Festival, while anticipating a potential price drop for piglets [3] Group 5: Fattening and Market Impact - A company with 10,000 fattening pigs has cleared its stock, with an average weight of 120 kg per pig, and a feed-to-meat ratio of 2.5-2.6 [3] - The company indicates that if prices for second fattening pigs drop below 7 yuan/kg, it will consider restocking or fattening pigs [3] - The company believes that second fattening will significantly impact this year's pig market [3]

Core Insights - The swine industry is entering a phase of high-quality development, focusing on improving the productivity of breeding sows and reducing costs while increasing efficiency [1][2] - The supply of pigs cannot be solely predicted by the number of breeding sows; performance improvements must also be considered to estimate supply increments [1] - The presence of speculators in the swine farming industry has increased due to various factors, including financial pressure and high price volatility [1] Group 1: Breeding and Production - In 2024, the pig output in Fujian is projected to be 16.5258 million heads, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, ranking 16th in the country [2] - The breeding sow inventory in Fujian is estimated to be between 700,000 and 750,000 heads, with many new breeding farms established in recent years [2] - A core breeding enterprise emphasizes balanced breeding principles, achieving significant improvements in growth performance metrics for "American" Duroc pigs [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In Jiangxi, the pig output for 2024 is expected to be 30.356 million heads, with a significant portion of production based on a company-plus-farmer model [5] - The second fattening group has become increasingly important, with trade merchants actively participating in this segment [5][6] - The average weight of pigs for second fattening has shifted to 120-125 kg, influenced by breed upgrades and lower feed prices [7] Group 3: Health Concerns - The outbreak of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PED) has raised concerns, particularly affecting piglets and potentially leading to significant mortality rates [8] - The impact of common pig diseases is expected to remain low this year, with strict environmental regulations and disease management practices in place [9] - The assessment of production losses due to PED varies, with mainstream estimates suggesting a 5% loss [8]

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 7 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.5-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.5-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定； 广东 15.4-16 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用 率已超过一半，部分养殖户五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消 费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥 滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节 奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生 产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据， 2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体 重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注 二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动； 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限， 处 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the short - term, the prices of hog, egg, and corn will experience fluctuations. The hog market is under supply pressure with increased supply and weakening demand; the egg market has both supply and demand increasing, with short - term demand supporting prices and long - term supply pressuring prices; the corn market is supported by reduced supply from the grassroots level and decreased imports in the short - term, but faces pressure from deep - processing losses and new wheat substitution in the long - term [6][55][92]. - In the long - term, the hog price is likely to decline due to strong supply and weak demand; the egg price is under pressure from increasing supply; the corn price has an upward drive but its upside is limited by substitutes [6][55][92]. Summary by Catalog 1. Hog 1.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the national hog price was 14.94 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan/kg from the end of last month; the Henan hog price was 14.75 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg. The main 09 futures price closed at 13910 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the end of last month, and the 09 contract basis was 840 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton [6]. 1.2 Supply - The inventory of breeding sows increased steadily from May to November 2024, with improved performance. From April to September, the supply is on the rise. The inventory decreased slightly from December 2024 to January 2025, rebounded in February, and decreased by 0.66% month - on - month in March, still 3.56% higher than the normal level. The supply pressure remains in the fourth quarter. The number of piglets increased year - on - year from November 2024 to February 2025, so the second - quarter slaughter pressure is high. The planned slaughter volume of enterprises in April increased month - on - month, the slaughter weight increased, and the fat - to - standard price difference was inverted [6][17]. 1.3 Demand - The monthly slaughter enterprise's开工 rate first decreased and then increased. After the May Day holiday, the pork market demand will weaken, but it will improve near the Dragon Boat Festival. However, the slaughter enterprises are still in loss, and the demand increment is limited. In April, the average daily slaughter of key slaughter enterprises was 121412 heads, up 4.62% from the previous month and 8.52% year - on - year; the slaughter gross profit was - 30 yuan/head, down 4.5 yuan/head from the previous month; the national frozen product inventory was 16.84%, down 0.01% from the end of last month and 0.46% from last year [6]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - The monthly piglet price decreased slightly, the breeding sow price was stable, and the breeding profit improved. As of April 30, the 15 - kg piglet sales price was 649 yuan/head, down 10 yuan/head from the end of last month; the binary sow price was 1634 yuan/head, unchanged from the end of last month. The breeding cost of enterprises with 5000 - 10000 sows was 13.31 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of purchasing piglets for breeding was 13.87 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg from the previous month. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of hogs was 145.34 yuan/head, up 24.34 yuan/head from the end of last month; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 118.88 yuan/head, up 87.95 yuan/head from the previous month [6]. 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - Under the background of increased and postponed supply, the hog price is under pressure, but the futures discount has already reflected the weak expectation, so the decline is limited. It is recommended to gradually stop profiting on short positions and short at high prices after a rebound. For the 07 contract, the resistance level is 13800 - 13900, and the support level is 13200 - 13300; for the 09 contract, the resistance level is 14600 - 14700, and the support level is 13700 - 13800. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices, partially stop profiting, and re - enter after a rebound [6]. 2. Egg 2.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.19 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the end of March; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin. The main 06 contract closed at 2942 yuan/500 kg, up 74 yuan/500 kg from the end of March; the main contract basis was 58 yuan/500 kg, 86 yuan/500 kg stronger than at the end of March. The egg price first rebounded and then declined, and the futures followed the spot price [55]. 2.2 Supply - In May, the number of newly - opened laying hens corresponding to the replenishment in January 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, with a large opening volume. Coupled with the non - increasing elimination of old hens, the supply continued to accumulate. In the long - term, the high replenishment volume from February to April 2025 means more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025, and the long - term supply increase trend is difficult to reverse. In April 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.011 billion month - on - month and 0.089 billion year - on - year [55]. 2.3 Demand - In early April, the downstream replenishment demand after the Tomb - sweeping Festival and the approaching May Day holiday boosted the egg price. After the May Day holiday, the channel may have replenishment demand, and the Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand increases, so the seasonal consumption of eggs improves. As of the end of April, the monthly sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was 29500 tons, up 1.99% from March [55]. 2.4 Strategy Suggestion - The 06 contract is expected to fluctuate in a range after the May Day holiday. Pay attention to the performance of the 3100 resistance and 2900 support levels. Treat the 08 and 09 contracts with a bearish view in general, and pay attention to the impact of feed and elimination [55]. 3. Corn 3.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2280 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the end of March; the main 2507 contract of corn was 2377 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton from the end of March; the main contract basis was - 97 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton stronger than at the end of March. The corn price first fluctuated narrowly and then rose rapidly at the end of the month, and the futures contract first fell and then rose [92]. 3.2 Supply - The grassroots grain sales are basically over, and the grain source has transferred to the trading end. Traders are reluctant to sell, and the supply is tight, which supports the price. However, after the price rises in May, traders' willingness to sell at high prices may increase, and there is a demand for making room for wheat in North China, which will increase the supply periodically. In March, the corn import was 80000 tons, the same as the previous month and a 95.3% year - on - year decrease. The import of international grains decreased year - on - year [92]. 3.3 Demand - The inventory of hogs and poultry is increasing, which drives the recovery of feed demand. Although wheat substitution has an impact on corn feed demand, it has not been carried out on a large scale, and the cost - effectiveness of corn is still high. The deep - processing industry is in loss, the operating rate has declined, and the demand increment is limited. As of April 25, the weekly feed corn inventory days were 35.74 days, an increase of 2.15 days from the end of March; the operating rate of sample deep - processing enterprises was 58.37%, a decrease of 5.45% from the end of March [92]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion - Generally, take a stable - to - strong view. Wait for the futures to pull back to go long, and be cautious about chasing high prices. For the 07 contract, pay attention to the 2400 resistance and 2280 - 2300 support levels; for the 09 contract, pay attention to the 2320 - 2330 support level [92].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 研究员 叶 天 咨询电话：027-65777093 从业编号：F03089203 投资咨询编号：Z0020750 4 月 29 日辽宁现货 14.3-15 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6- 15.2 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上日稳 定；广东 15.4-16 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价北涨南稳。月底月 初规模企业缩量、散户抗价情绪仍存，支撑价格，但前期二育强势进场，二 育栏舍利用率已超过一半，部分养殖户预计五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂 以及成本提升，二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，五一假 期备货需求小幅增加，但猪价偏高，消费处于淡季，屠企利润仍亏损，需求 增量有限，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二 育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能 提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供 ...