Global Asset Price Review - The US Treasury Secretary proposed the removal of Clause 899 from the tax bill, which is a controversial "capital tax" clause, leading to a waiver for US companies from certain taxes imposed by other countries [1][8] - Global geopolitical tensions have eased, resulting in a notable increase in equity markets while commodities generally declined [1][8] - As of June 27, 2025, the 10Y US Treasury yield decreased by 9 basis points to 4.29%, and the US dollar index remains below 100 at 97.3 [1][8] Global Fund Flows - Developed European equity funds experienced significant outflows, while Japan and emerging markets saw notable inflows [1][8] - In the past week, foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market while domestic capital saw outflows, with domestic outflows amounting to $380 million and foreign inflows of $997 million [1][8] - Active overseas funds withdrew from the Chinese stock market, while passive funds saw inflows, with active outflows of $538 million and passive inflows of $1.535 billion [1][8] Global Asset Valuation - The equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares remains significantly higher than that of overseas markets, with the ERP percentile for the CSI 300 dropping 4 percentage points to 73% [1][8] - The ERP percentiles for the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq are at 4%, 2%, and 6% respectively, indicating a lower risk premium compared to A-shares [1][8] Global Asset Risk Indicators - The sentiment in the US stock market continues to improve, with the put/call ratio on June 27 dropping to 0.90 from 1.23 on June 23, indicating a more optimistic outlook [1][8] - In the A-share market, only 30% of CSI 300 constituent stocks are above their 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, suggesting a weaker overall performance [1][8] Global Economic Data - The US Q1 GDP showed a contraction of -0.5%, indicating increasing economic pressure [1][8] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated expectations for monetary easing, with a 91.4% probability of a rate cut by September 2025 [1][8]

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 地缘冲突升级 风险偏好降低 ——股指周报2025.06.23 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作上，随着5 | | | | 1、券商中国，随着美联储维持利率不变，全球市场进入新一轮观望期。多家外资机构 | 月经济数据的披 | | | | 表示，通胀走势、贸易政策与地缘政治的不确定性，正深刻影响市场预期。在全球经济 | 露，市场对于基 | | | | 面临多重扰动的背景下，美联储选择"按兵不动"，但这并未完全减弱市场波动，投资机 | 本面或存在一定 | | | | 构对未来资产价格的再评估与区域配置的调整意愿依然强烈。券商中国记者注意到，从 | 的分歧，叠加目 | | | | 资产类别到区域配置，外资的战略重心正在发生微妙变化。相较于对美国市场的谨慎态 | 前海外地缘局势 | | | | 度，欧洲、日本与新兴市场正逐步获得更高的权重。 ...

随着美联储维持利率不变，全球市场进入新一轮观望期。 券商中国记者注意到，从资产类别到区域配置，外资的战略重心正在发生微妙变化。相较于对美国市场的谨慎 态度，欧洲、日本与新兴市场正逐步获得更高的权重。信用债、黄金、欧元等多元资产也重新进入主流视野， 全球资产配置的格局正在悄然重塑。 美联储按兵不动，政策扰动下的市场波动未止 尽管市场对于通胀和经济前景仍存在诸多疑问，但多家外资机构判断，美联储本轮议息会议维持利率不变，符 合预期。在关税博弈、地缘冲突、财政不确定性等多重扰动交织之下，投资机构普遍对政策路径和宏观趋势持 谨慎态度。 贝莱德智库指出，美国CPI等经济数据波动剧烈，反映出当前宏观经济正处于波动更大的阶段。他们认为，在 等待关税影响成为现实的过程中，美联储将维持利率不变。贝莱德据此维持超配美股的观点。 相关数据显示，随着贸易紧张局势缓和，标普500指数已反弹到2月高点附近。为期90天的关税暂停期将于7月9 日结束，贝莱德智库认为，鉴于美国正酝酿在此之前单方面设定关税，预计将会有更多由政策引发的波动。 此外，鉴于关税的经济影响尚不明确以及通胀持续波动，美联储在本周的议息会议上 "按兵不动"。贝莱德智 库认为 ...

2025陆家嘴论坛6月18日开幕。在"全体大会四：深化上海与香港国际金融中心合作发展"上，上海浦东 发展银行董事长张为忠表示，沪港两地基础设施连接"三通"扩容和允许两地投资者市场流动性增强是非 常重要的。通过深化机制的连通，沪港两地可以建立全球资产配置的高速路。香港在离岸人民币业务及 财富管理、资产配置方面具备显著优势，这些优势可借助机制连通助力全球资产配置，为中国企业出海 提供产业布局与资产配置新路径。（证券时报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces the "Xueqiu Three-Point Method," which enhances traditional asset allocation by incorporating global asset allocation and dynamic rebalancing strategies [2][42]. Group 1: Asset Allocation - The "Three-Point" method consists of asset diversification across stocks, bonds, and commodities [3][42]. - It emphasizes market diversification by investing in different regions such as A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks [3][42]. - The method also includes timing diversification through regular investment (dollar-cost averaging) [3][42]. Group 2: User Experience - The tool is designed to be user-friendly, allowing investors with limited knowledge to create a portfolio that outperforms benchmarks [4][5]. - Users can manually adjust asset allocation based on their preferences after an initial questionnaire [9][11]. - The platform offers a curated selection of high-quality funds, simplifying the selection process for users [12][25]. Group 3: Fund Selection Process - Users can choose from a pool of recommended funds or opt for a pre-assembled portfolio [12][13]. - The platform provides detailed information and tags for each fund, making it easier for users to understand their investment options [24][25]. - The tool allows for the selection of various fund types, including index funds and overseas investments [16][18]. Group 4: Rebalancing and Performance Tracking - The "Three-Point Dashboard" provides weekly updates on asset valuations and market sentiment, aiding in rebalancing decisions [30][39]. - The dashboard tracks multiple key indicators to inform users about market conditions and potential adjustments [41][42]. - The article highlights a successful reallocation based on the dashboard's recommendations, demonstrating its effectiveness [32][37].

Weekly Insights - The report highlights an increase in market disturbances due to escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran, leading to heightened concerns over oil prices and inflation risks. However, the direct impact on China is considered limited, with the main concern being the risk of significant oil price increases. Historically, Middle Eastern conflicts have acted as catalysts for oil price fluctuations, but their effects tend to be short-lived due to the global economy's inability to sustain high oil prices for extended periods. Overall, the emotional impact of these conflicts on the market is greater than the actual economic implications [4][7]. - The State Council's meeting on June 13 emphasized stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market, outlining four key policy directions: stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks. This is expected to lead to timely responses from local governments and facilitate a quicker adjustment in the real estate cycle, contributing to marginal improvements in economic performance [4][7]. Market Trends - Despite recent adjustments, the overall market trend remains a broad range-bound movement. The core factors driving the market are stable and improving fundamental expectations, with hopes for gradual policy and external improvements. The report anticipates a structural bull market to emerge in the third quarter, with 3,400 points identified as a significant resistance level. The transition from quantitative to qualitative changes in A-shares is underway, indicating a revaluation of Chinese assets from a global investment perspective [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high economic activity, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks, which are expected to continue their upward trajectory. While there may be short-term adjustments in crowded small-cap stocks, the likelihood of a major cyclical downturn is low. The report remains optimistic about the performance of large-cap companies following the trends of small-cap stocks. Key sectors to watch include innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumer trends, with an emphasis on undervalued, high-dividend stocks as long-term investment opportunities in a declining interest rate environment [6][9]. Market Data - The report notes a general upward trend in the market, with small-cap stocks performing particularly well. The weekly performance of major indices shows positive returns, with the ChiNext Index leading at 2.32%, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index at 1.42% and the Shanghai Composite Index at 1.13% [10][12]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector has outperformed other industries this week, indicating strong investor interest in this area [13]. - Market turnover rates have increased, suggesting a rise in trading activity, while margin financing balances have shown a decline, reflecting reduced market participation [15][17]. Valuation Insights - The overall valuation levels in the market remain reasonable, with the exception of the Sci-Tech 50 Index, which has seen a notable increase. The report provides a detailed breakdown of sector valuations, highlighting significant variations across different industries [19][21]. - For instance, the electronics sector has a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 58.6, while the real estate sector shows a negative P/E of -6.4, indicating substantial differences in market sentiment and performance expectations across sectors [21][22].

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看路演详情 ） 随着全球化进程不断推进、中国资本市场不断发展，参与海外投资的市场基础显著拓宽， 可投资 的海外市场日益多元，可选投资标的也不断丰富，这让全球资产配置不再遥不可及，成为应对市 场不确定性、优化资产布局的重要途径之一。 在这此背景下，了解并遵循国际税务规则，成为每一位考虑或已经进行海外资产布局的投资者的 必修课。特别是近年来， 共同申报准则（CRS） 在全球范围深入实施，各国之间的税务信息透 明度显著提升。面对这一变化，投资者需要提前了解、充分准备，才能在全球化的投资道路上走 得更稳、更远。 6月16日（周一），私募排排网特邀 RSM中国税务合伙人、注册税务师罗大威 先生带来关于海 外税务合规的专业、深度分享。 路演主题 《CRS信息交换下的 个人海外资产收入申报与税务合规》 亮点前瞻 详解CRS信息交换机制 全面解读境外收入纳税范围与申报要求 路演时间 6月16日（周一）20:00 观看地址 扫码 观看路演（或 点击小程序观看 ） 嘉宾介绍 罗大威 | 税务合伙人 | RSM中国 中国注册税务师 罗大威先生在税务领域拥有超过20年的专业服务经验 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that stable capital market policies provide A-shares with a "buffer" against macro disturbances, suggesting a shift in focus from macro analysis to strong sector rhythm judgment for short-term market assessment [3][9]. - It indicates that the improvement in the supply-demand structure of A-shares may be delayed, while the verification process of China's global competitiveness is also a process of optimistic expectation fermentation [3][9]. - The article highlights that Hong Kong stocks are a potential leading market in a bull market scenario, with significant liquidity improvements being a historical change [3][20]. Group 2 - The article discusses the expected global economic conditions over the next 3-6 months, indicating that the global fundamentals will still be affected by tariffs and high interest rates, with a preference for Chinese stocks and technology growth stocks [15][20]. - It mentions that the market may enter a phase where the central tendency is elevated, suggesting that the market is in the final stage before a significant upward movement [5][8]. - The article provides insights into the potential return rates for the Hang Seng Index in 2025, with various scenarios based on earnings growth and U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a high implied equity risk premium [20][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Switzerland's Pictet Asset Management sees China as a long-term strategic market and is committed to sustainable development in its Chinese operations [1][12] - Pictet Asset Management has increased its allocation to Chinese stocks, citing favorable policy support for market valuation recovery [1][6] - The firm is planning to launch a third mutual recognition fund and is optimistic about the expansion of the Wealth Management Connect in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [7][12] Group 2 - The U.S. tariff policy has shaken global investor confidence, leading some investors from South Korea and Taiwan to diversify away from U.S. assets into European and emerging market investments [3][4] - As of June 2023, non-U.S. investors held $26 trillion in U.S. assets, indicating that even a 5% shift to other markets could have a significant impact [4] - Asian investors are increasingly favoring low-volatility multi-asset strategies, reflecting a long-term trend towards income and fixed dividend preferences [5] Group 3 - The perception of the Chinese market has improved among Pictet's executives following increased visits to China, leading to a deeper understanding of the country's economic vitality [11][12] - The firm emphasizes a long-term investment approach, focusing on sustainable growth rather than short-term gains, which has historically led to stable returns [12][13] - Pictet Asset Management is cautious about rapid expansion, prioritizing employee sustainability and brand integrity over short-term growth [13]

本文重点 观点来自： 6 月 11 日本周三直播 欢迎大家 点击【预约】 按钮 预约 我 下一场直播 日本市场则仍处于加息周期，整体处于流动性收缩状态。日本经历了30年通缩和异常宽松的货币政策， 目前正尝试回归正常化，包括提高利率和缩减国债规模。短期内这种政策调整导致市场表现乏力，表现 较弱。日本市场适合机会主义操作，若出现暴跌则是介入机会，否则维持观望。作为发达国家，日本治 理和基本面仍较稳健，但目前吸引力有限。 德国市场暂时未重点跟踪，主要因为其与美国市场高度相关，关注美国市场即可代表对德国的关注。 黄金方面，目前处于高位整理阶段。央行持续买入黄金，形成支撑，避免价格大幅下跌。美国美元走势 偏弱，短期难见显著反弹，因此黄金仍具备相对吸引力，适合作为配置资产。 总结来看，印度由于政策利好兑现且估值偏高，短期建议止盈谨慎；越南经济健康、估值合理，值得继 续关注；日本加息周期内表现乏力，适合等待机会；黄金保持稳定，美元弱势下仍可配置。朋友们如有 兴趣，可以关注我们全球配置的思路和服务，结合宏观与资产配置，实现收益稳健的目标。 以上内容仅为案例展示，不构成投资建议，投资有风险，交易需谨慎。 注：基金投顾服务由盈米 ...