国际期货确实具备一些结构性优势，但"那么多人在炒"的说法需要谨慎看待——从绝对参与人数看，国 内期货市场仍是主流，国际期货更多是在特定群体（如专业交易者、产业客户、全球配置需求者）中关 注度提升。其吸引力主要源于市场特性、工具价值与时代背景的共振。正大国际期货预留3.6详 LJHNN88情 一、国际期货的客观优势 市场机制优势： 工具价值优势： 技术便利性： 二、为何"看起来"参与者在增多 相对增长而非绝对数量：需要澄清的是，国内期货市场客户数（2025年约270万）仍远高于通过合规渠 道参与国际期货的人数。所谓的"增多"更多体现在： 真实驱动因素： 24小时连续交易：覆盖全球时区，避免隔夜跳空风险，对需要实时管理风险的交易者更友好 高流动性：CME、ICE等交易所日均成交量数万亿美元，大资金进出方便，滑点成本低 品种丰富：涵盖原油、黄金、外汇、全球股指等全品类，部分品种（如WTI原油）是全球定价基 准 双向交易机制：无论涨跌均可通过做多/做空获利，在熊市或震荡市中提供额外机会 全球配置工具：为持有海外资产或面临跨境风险的企业提供对冲工具 高杠杆特性：通常提供10-50倍杠杆（品种决定），在正确判断时资金效率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal moment for global asset allocation among Chinese households, with a significant increase in the scale of FOF products and growing interest in global assets like US stocks and gold [1]. Group 1: Changes in Asset Allocation Paradigms - Traditional stock-bond allocation frameworks are no longer sufficient to meet current financial needs, as stocks exhibit high volatility and low win rates, while bond yields are too low [3][4]. - From 2024, more FOF clients are seeking higher win-rate global asset allocation combinations, with a focus on assets like the Nasdaq and gold ETFs, which have historically shown higher success rates [3][4]. - Emerging markets such as India and Vietnam are being explored for their potential, as they replicate the urbanization and industrialization logic seen in China's past [3][4]. Group 2: Market Insights and Historical Context - The performance of "old blue-chip stocks" in China, which have seen stagnant profit growth but high dividend yields, mirrors the current growth stocks in emerging markets like India and Vietnam [4]. - Japan's experience during its low-interest era, where institutional investors significantly increased global asset allocations, serves as a reference point for current trends [15]. Group 3: Evolving Research and Strategy Frameworks - The shift from traditional top-down strategies to a more nuanced global asset allocation approach reflects the changing landscape of wealth management, with a focus on integrating various asset classes [9][11]. - The development of a comprehensive high-frequency data system and the need for more granular industry analysis highlight the evolution of investment strategies [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook on Key Assets - Gold is expected to gain importance as a safe-haven asset, especially in light of geopolitical tensions and the weakening of dollar credibility, with predictions of significant price increases [16]. - The long-term outlook for US stocks remains positive, driven by substantial capital expenditures in the tech sector, particularly in AI, which is anticipated to yield profitable returns [17][18]. Group 5: Role of AI in Investment Strategies - AI is transforming investment research by enhancing efficiency and allowing for more objective analysis, thus reducing emotional biases in decision-making [20]. - The integration of AI into investment frameworks is expected to streamline processes and improve the accuracy of asset allocation strategies [20]. Group 6: Organizational Changes and Research Integration - The restructuring of the research team under the leadership of a chief economist aims to enhance collaboration across various sectors, facilitating a more integrated approach to asset allocation [21].

【全球资本"迁徙"进行时：对中国资产态度转为"计划布局"】2026年开年，亚洲科技股显著跑赢美股科 技板块，折射出资金流向的深层逻辑：随着美联储进入降息通道、美元资产吸引力减弱，国际资本正在 重新评估全球资产配置的风险与回报关系。过去十余年"资金单向流向美国"的格局正在出现松动，非美 资产尤其是亚洲市场，似乎成了外资投资的"下一站"。在此过程中，外资对中国资产的态度也逐渐从观 望转为"计划布局"。同时，多位业内人士透露，开年外资机构关注的不再只是"long-short"策略（股票对 冲策略），也包括"long only"策略（股票多头策略）。（上证报） ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the launch of a new fund by Yinhua Fund, the Yinhua Huayuan Multi-Asset Allocation Six-Month Holding Period Mixed Fund (FOF), aimed at providing investors with a tool for global asset allocation in 2026 [1][2] - The fund emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in a changing global economic environment, focusing on low-correlation assets to enhance portfolio stability [1][2] Group 1: Fund Characteristics - The Yinhua Huayuan Multi-Asset Allocation Six-Month Holding Period Mixed Fund (FOF) is designed to invest in various assets including Chinese bonds, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, and gold, aiming to balance risk and return [1] - The fund's strategy includes a focus on pure bond funds for stable returns and a core dividend strategy in equities, supplemented by various satellite strategies such as overseas investments and growth sectors [1] Group 2: Manager Expertise and Performance - The fund is managed by Wang Jiapeng, who has experience in asset allocation and fund product research, with a notable past performance of the Yinhua Huafeng Three-Month Holding Period Mixed Fund (FOF) achieving a cumulative return of 3.34% since its inception, outperforming its benchmark by 4.03% [2] - The fund aims for long-term absolute returns while controlling drawdowns and enhancing the client holding experience through diversified risk management [2] Group 3: Market Context and Outlook - The article highlights the current economic landscape, noting a shift in growth momentum among major economies, changes in monetary policy, and geopolitical reconfigurations that are shaping new asset pricing logic [2] - Analysts suggest that with an increasing probability of a "soft landing" for the US economy and easing global trade tensions, risk assets are expected to outperform in 2026, although market differentiation will be more pronounced [2]

多家受访机构认为，当前亚洲资产在全球范围内具有显著的吸引力。全球最大资管公司贝莱德最新发布 的一份调查报告显示，被调查的投资者正计划显著增持亚洲股票，这反映出市场对该地区作为全球增长 引擎的信心日益增强。 2025年，黄金、白银两大贵金属大幅上涨，与此同时国际油价持续低迷、美元指数走弱。展望2026年， 多家机构对全球大类资产的走向进行研判：亚洲股市在流动性支持与增长潜力下前景良好；受益于避险 需求与宽松的货币环境，黄金、白银等贵金属有望维持强势；在全球能源转型与经济放缓的双重影响 下，原油或将持续承压。 施罗德投资亚洲多元资产投资团队表示，对亚洲市场持积极态度。2026年以来市场上涨趋势的背后，反 映了更广泛的宏观经济转变。这一转变正在重塑全球资产配置格局，并为在美国以外的市场创造出新的 增长机会。在此背景下，将投资组合多元化配置至美国以外地区具有重要价值。 进入2026年，亚洲市场表现出色：截至1月15日，韩国综合指数上涨13.84%，日经225、深证成指、恒 生指数均涨逾5%。纳斯达克、标普500、法国CAC40指数等表现则相对落后。 "我们相信，宏观环境将在2026年继续利好亚洲资产，主要受充裕的资本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by ICBC Standard Bank highlights a pivotal shift in global asset allocation towards emerging markets and commodities by 2026, with a particular emphasis on the investment value of emerging markets and the potential for strong performance in precious metals and copper prices due to their critical roles in energy transition and AI technology advancement [1]. Emerging Markets - By 2026, investors are expected to increasingly recognize the relative investment value of emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Central Asia [2]. - The issuance of local currency-denominated bonds in emerging and frontier markets is projected to rise, driven by capital inflows seeking returns, with some frontier markets likely to see improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals leading to upgrades in sovereign credit ratings [2]. - Specific opportunities include: - Egypt, supported by strong external financing and government reforms, is expected to see a decline in inflation and improvements in fiscal indicators, creating a favorable investment environment [2]. - Nigeria benefits from foreign exchange liberalization, oil sector restructuring, and fiscal reforms, with strong foreign reserves and declining inflation contributing to positive asset performance [2]. - Uzbekistan's market liberalization, undervalued currency, and rising gold exports are expected to enhance foreign exchange reserves and asset return potential [2]. - Ghana is anticipated to resume international bond issuance by 2026, providing market access opportunities for international investors [2]. Commodities - The report indicates that the commodity market will reflect supply and demand changes more rapidly amid increasing uncertainty in the global economic and financial landscape, with a structural differentiation expected in 2026 [3]. - In precious metals: - Gold prices surged in 2025 due to central bank purchases, aggressive U.S. trade policies, and geopolitical disturbances, but may face temporary downward pressure in 2026 as the Federal Reserve slows its easing, trade tensions ease, and market risk appetite improves, although institutional buying interest remains strong [3]. - Platinum's price sustainability is questioned due to structural weaknesses in automotive demand and jewelry consumption, leading to accumulating downward pressure [3]. - For base metals: - Copper is positioned as a strategic metal benefiting from green energy transitions and AI infrastructure investments, with ongoing supply shortages exacerbated by production disruptions, leading to high volatility in copper prices [3]. - In the oil market: - Oil prices are expected to remain stable in 2026 after experiencing fluctuations in 2025 due to OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical factors, with record supply surpluses initially pressuring prices, but a gradual recovery in global demand and declining shale oil production may stabilize the market [3].

Group 1 - The core concept of ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is that it is a fund traded on exchanges, representing a basket of stocks, similar to buying and selling individual stocks [1] - The ETF market in China has grown rapidly since its inception in 2004, with projections indicating that by the end of 2025, the market size will exceed 60 trillion, experiencing significant growth milestones at 40 trillion, 50 trillion, and 60 trillion within a single year [1] - The potential bottleneck for ETF growth may occur when the market approaches 100 trillion, suggesting a possible slowdown in growth rate [1] Group 2 - There is a wide variety of ETF types available in the market, including broad-based ETFs like CSI 300 ETF and industry-specific ETFs such as securities ETF, communication ETF, and semiconductor equipment ETF [2] - Non-stock ETFs are also present, including gold ETFs, bond ETFs, and currency ETFs, as well as those that invest in overseas assets like Hong Kong technology ETFs and NASDAQ ETFs [2] - The ETF market enhances global investment opportunities, allowing for diversified asset allocation and potentially increasing investment success rates compared to investing in individual stocks [3]

Group 1 - The 2025 Weibo Finance Night and Beijing Financial Influencer Alliance Annual Meeting will be held on January 15, 2026, in Beijing, featuring prominent figures from the finance sector and engaging discussions on hot topics [1][41] - Keynote speakers include Sina Finance CEO Deng Qingxu, Tsinghua University’s Professor He Ping, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist Xing Ziqiang, and others, who will share insights on the current economic landscape [1][41] - The event will include a peak dialogue session and a roundtable forum focusing on the impact of AI and new production capabilities in the finance sector [1][41] Group 2 - Deng Qingxu emphasized the need for reliable voices in the market and the importance of making finance accessible to the public, stating that the bull market should rise steadily and sustainably [4][42] - He Ping highlighted two significant changes in the Chinese capital market: the shift from a policy-driven market to a more effective market and the increasing influence of international capital flows [6][46] - Xing Ziqiang pointed out that China is expected to maintain a growing share in the global export market, with current exports accounting for one-seventh of the global total, projected to rise to over 17% in five years [7][50] Group 3 - Song Xuetao discussed the importance of "investing in people" to enhance consumer spending, suggesting increased transfer payments and improved public services to encourage spending [11][52] - Former economist Fu Peng stated that the discussion around whether AI is a bubble is less important than the potential for investment returns, advocating for risk-taking in early-stage investments [14][55] - Wu Qilun expressed optimism about China's economic growth driven by a large domestic market and high-level openness, supported by government initiatives to boost consumer income [17][58] Group 4 - Li Daxiao expressed a positive outlook for the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of good companies contributing positively to various stakeholders [21][59] - Lin Yixiang raised concerns about the impact of high-frequency trading on retail investors, suggesting that halting such practices could benefit the market [25][63] - Niu Wenxin stressed the need for better capital liquidity in the stock market to ensure long-term stability [27][66] Group 5 - The roundtable discussion on AI highlighted the potential of embodied intelligent robots, with estimates suggesting a market value reaching trillions of dollars [31][71] - Wan Zhe pointed out that the concept of embodied intelligence should be clarified, emphasizing the importance of emotional value in technology adoption [36][73] - The discussion underscored that the AI sector is far from saturated, with ongoing transformations in societal and work structures due to AI advancements [38][75]

专题：2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会 2025年度私享会年度私享会暨北京财经大V联盟年会于2026年1月15日在北京举行。本次年会汇聚财 经界重磅嘉宾与热门话题，为大家呈现了一场精彩纷呈的财经盛宴。 在年会上，新浪财经CEO邓庆旭，清华大学经济管理学院副院长、金融系教授何平，摩根士丹利中国首 席经济学家邢自强，国金证券首席经济学家宋雪涛，前东北证券首席经济学家付鹏，财经评论人、专栏 作家吴其伦，前券商首席经济学家李大霄出席并发表主题演讲。 在巅峰对话环节，天相投顾董事长经济学者林义相，前证券资讯频道执行总编辑兼首席新闻评论员钮文 新，主持人人大重阳金融研究院高级研究员、资深财经媒体人董少鹏，就《风云对话：穿越牛熊的预测 与抉择》的主题分享精彩观点。 在圆桌论坛环节，中国互动媒体产业联盟专家委员会委员、数字文化产业工作组组长包冉，北京师范大 学教授、一带一路学院研究员万喆，普罗宇宙机器人科技有限公司创始人兼COO葛巾，主持人财经媒 体人袁立一围绕《AI浪潮下新质生产力的"新赛道"与"新玩家"》展开深度讨论。 邓庆旭：让牛市真正涨起来、慢起来 新浪财经CEO邓庆旭在致辞中表示，微博作为一个每天都有亿万 ...

Core Insights - The total scale of cross-border ETFs in China has reached 1 trillion yuan (approximately 100.25 billion yuan), marking a 146% increase compared to the same period last year, indicating a significant advancement in China's asset allocation capabilities in the global financial market [1] - Cross-border ETFs are becoming essential financial tools for optimizing global asset allocation, facilitating a structural shift from localized investment to global diversification [1][2] Group 1: Key Drivers of Growth - The deepening of China's financial market opening and the continuous optimization of the cross-border investment regulatory environment have provided solid institutional support for the growth of cross-border ETFs [1][2] - The transformation of the global economic landscape has made overseas asset allocation a critical issue for domestic investors, with cross-border ETFs serving as a core tool for this process [2][3] - The inherent advantages of cross-border ETFs, such as low cost, high transparency, and ease of operation, have significantly lowered the barriers to global asset allocation, making them a mainstream financial bridge connecting domestic capital with overseas markets [3] Group 2: Market Implications - The rapid growth of cross-border ETFs reflects a structural demand for global asset allocation rather than merely a "capital outflow," as a significant portion of funds is allocated to ETFs tracking Chinese assets listed overseas [3] - The expansion of cross-border ETFs is expected to enhance China's proactive and diversified global layout capabilities, increasing its influence in global asset pricing as the financial market continues to open [4]