Group 1 - The international gold price experienced fluctuations, stabilizing around the support level of $3300 after a four-day decline, indicating a potential reversal with a small bullish candlestick pattern [1] - Market focus is on the outcomes of the US-China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with expectations of relative stability until these results are announced [1] - Recent tariff agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU have lowered overall tariff levels compared to previous threats, reducing short-term market risk aversion and potentially stabilizing gold prices [1] Group 2 - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the $3305-$3335 range, with potential downward support at $3280 and $3250, or upward resistance at $3350-$3355 [2] - The outcome of the battle for the $3350 level will be crucial for determining the future price trajectory of gold [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in July with a 2.6% probability of a rate cut, but the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economy shows resilience, with the July composite PMI reaching a new high, but the manufacturing PMI falling into the contraction range. The gold market has increased long - short divergence, and domestic gold investment demand is strong while jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - Copper prices may decline slightly in the future week as the anti - involution heat fades, and will experience significant fluctuations due to major macro - events [14]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with low inventory supporting prices but weakening demand. Alumina has intensified capital games, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Zinc's supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak in the off - season, and short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades, and are affected by macro - events [96]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the polysilicon market should be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [117]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Expectations**: The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in July (2.6% probability of a rate cut), and the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economic data shows mixed signals, with the composite PMI at a high and the manufacturing PMI in contraction [3]. - **Market Sentiment and Demand**: The 15% tariff agreement between the US and Europe weakens the safe - haven demand. Domestic gold investment demand is strong (23.69% year - on - year increase in gold bar and coin consumption in the first half of the year), but jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold's total positions and net long positions have increased significantly, indicating intensified long - short divergence [3]. Copper - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week. The rise was due to anti - involution and expected copper demand from the Yajiang Hydropower Station, but these factors have limited short - term impact. Future price trends will be affected by the fading anti - involution heat and macro - events [14]. - **Market Data**: As of the report date, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper has declined, and the import profit and loss and processing fees have also changed [15][22][26]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: The anti - involution sentiment has eased, and the price has slightly declined. Low inventory supports prices, but demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [34]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is still tight. The warehouse receipts are at a low level, and the price has been affected by trading restrictions [35]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply side is affected by the price of scrap aluminum, and the demand side shows good short - term performance. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [36]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of zinc futures and spot zinc have declined, and inventory has changed [67][72][75]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Movement**: The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures have changed, and trading volume and positions have also fluctuated [82]. Tin - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Tin prices rose due to anti - involution and may decline slightly as the heat fades, being affected by macro - events [96]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of tin futures and spot tin have declined, and inventory has increased [97][101][103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - **Market Data**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot lithium have changed, and inventory has also fluctuated [108][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to good macro - sentiment and the rise of polysilicon [117]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is hyped up by policy expectations, and caution is needed about the "strong expectation, weak reality" situation [117]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products have changed, and production and inventory data are also provided [118][124][132]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton decreased with reduced positions. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions and grades of cotton had various sales basis and price ranges [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market's quotes remained stable, and transaction prices gradually approached the quotes. The overall demand in the cotton fabric market was weak, with prices mostly stable or declining [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market focused on the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, as of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, the squaring rate was 80%, and the boll-setting rate was 44%. The growth progress of US cotton was slow, and the good-to-excellent rate declined slightly. Domestically, the sown area increased year-on-year, and there was still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream industry's demand remained weak, and the short-term main contract adjusted with position reduction and contract switching, with the 9-1 spread continuing to converge [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 24, the number of deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE was 21,617 bales, down from 21,635 bales the previous trading day. As of July 22, 2025, the net long position rate of ICE cotton futures funds was -18.94% (a week-on-week increase of 3.97 percentage points) [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including those on the China cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, different contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [17][18][23]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.38% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 267 points, a decline of 0.6% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 84 points, down 0.4% [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index nearly completely reversed earlier gains [1] Economic Commentary - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, stated that a large number of agreements are close to being finalized, pending the determination of tariff rates by President Trump [1]

跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 墨西哥总统辛鲍姆：墨西哥的目标是在本周与美国达成关税协议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures show limited short-term fluctuations, with Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining an increase of approximately 0.4%. India is preparing to temporarily face higher U.S. tariffs, anticipating a potential agreement with the U.S. by September or October regarding tariffs ranging from 20% to 25% [1]. Group 1 - U.S. stock futures are experiencing minor fluctuations, indicating a stable market environment [1]. - Nasdaq 100 futures are showing a gain of about 0.4%, reflecting positive investor sentiment [1]. - India is preparing for a potential increase in U.S. tariffs, which could range from 20% to 25% [1]. Group 2 - India expects to reach an agreement with the U.S. by September or October, which may address the tariff situation [1].

执行：毕秋兰 刘小军 编导：吴轶楠 张旭烨 刘雯文 视频制作：邓琦 曾馨颐 视觉设计：杨霁昕 06:02 美欧7月27日宣布达成新协议，美国将对欧盟输美产品征收15%的关税，欧盟将对美增加6000亿美元投 资及购买价值7500亿美元的美国能源等。欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席贝恩德·朗格表示，这项协议总 体上将削弱欧盟的经济发展。 本期《新华网国际看点》连线北京外国语大学区域与全球治理高等研究院教授崔洪建。他认为，欧盟并 没有真正下决心以关税战的方式来应对美国单边征税措施，15%的关税将严重冲击欧洲国家的经济和民 生，对其财政、市场信心、产业投资等将造成难以估量的损失。 策划：车玉明 刘加文 统筹：杨定都 徐倩 新华网海外传播中心制作 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the analysis implies a short - term upward support situation [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bearish trend according to the star - rating system [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, suggesting a bearish trend [1] - Asphalt: Not explicitly stated, with a neutral view on supply and weak demand but some price support [3] - LPG: ★☆☆, representing a bearish bias [1] Core View - The macro - economic and geopolitical factors have an impact on the energy market, with different products showing various trends. The overall energy market is affected by factors such as inventory changes, production adjustments, and demand fluctuations. The prices of these energy products generally follow the trend of crude oil to some extent, but each has its own supply - demand characteristics [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, global crude oil inventory has decreased by 1.9%, refined oil inventory has increased by 1.4%, and the overall petroleum inventory has decreased by 0.7% after increases in the first and second quarters. There are expectations for a more relaxed balance sheet after OPEC+ production returns. There are positive macro - economic expectations from trade agreements and negotiations. The short - term market has upward support [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Macro and geopolitical news boosts oil prices, but fuel - related futures' cracking spreads are expected to be under pressure. In July, the arrival volume in the Singapore market increased by 22.5% month - on - month to 6.55 million tons, and the demand for ship refueling weakened. The cracking spreads are likely to be in a weak and volatile state [2] Asphalt - The planned production in August decreased compared to July, but there are signs of potential production increases. Demand recovery is delayed in the South due to typhoons and is weak in the North. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The supply increase space is considered neutral, demand has a weak reality but a repair expectation, and the price is supported by low inventory and follows the crude oil trend with limited upward space [3] LPG - Traders are cautious about potential CP price cuts at the end of the month. Exports increase and put pressure on the overseas market. The import cost decline improves chemical profit margins, and the PDH operating rate has room to rise. The supply is relatively loose, and the market is under pressure, showing a weak and volatile trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU is perceived as unfavorable for Europe, as it involves a 15% tariff on EU products while requiring significant investments and purchases from the U.S. [2][10][15] Group 1: Agreement Details - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on EU products, aligning with the rate set for Japan [2] - The EU is expected to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [2][14] - The agreement is seen as a trade-off where Europe accepts higher tariffs in exchange for investment commitments [3][4] Group 2: European Response - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen acknowledged that while the 15% tariff is not ideal, it is the best outcome they could achieve [5] - There are significant dissenting voices within Europe, with leaders like the French Prime Minister criticizing the agreement as detrimental to European interests [20][21] - The agreement is compared to historical unequal treaties, suggesting that Europe is sacrificing its own benefits [22][23] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The agreement reinforces Europe's energy dependence on the U.S., especially in light of recent geopolitical tensions [33][34] - The U.S. may leverage this energy dependency to impose higher prices on European imports [34][37] - The U.S. is expected to pursue similar agreements with other nations, particularly Japan, using its strategic advantages [41][43]

Group 1 - The core agreement between the US and EU involves a 15% tariff rate, increasing the effective tariff on EU goods exported to the US from approximately 10% to about 16% [1] - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for the impact of trade tensions on the Eurozone's GDP from -0.6% to -0.4%, indicating a more positive outlook for the European economy [1][6] - The agreement is expected to positively influence European growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, raising predictions by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1% and 1.2% respectively [1][6] Group 2 - The automotive sector benefits significantly from the agreement, with tariffs on cars reduced from 27.5% to 15%, impacting approximately €60 billion in exports, which constitutes 10% of total EU exports to the US [2] - Germany and Italy are the primary beneficiaries, accounting for 74% of EU automotive exports to the US [2] Group 3 - Pharmaceutical products are temporarily exempt from the new 15% tariff until early 2027 due to the sensitivity of drug pricing, with Ireland, Germany, Belgium, and Italy being the main beneficiaries of this exemption [3] Group 4 - Tariffs on steel and aluminum will remain at 50%, while the EU plans to reduce trade barriers through tariff cuts and quota systems [4] - Steel and aluminum products represent only 4% of the EU's total exports to the US, approximately €23 billion [4] Group 5 - The EU has committed to significantly increasing its procurement of US energy products, aiming for $750 billion over three years, which would triple current imports and account for 60% of EU energy imports [5] - Achieving this procurement goal is considered highly challenging, even with existing plans included [5] Group 6 - The overall economic impact of the tariff agreement is better than expected, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its GDP growth forecasts upward for 2025 and 2026, while also noting a slight increase in inflation expectations for 2026 [6]