Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures show limited short-term fluctuations, with Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining an increase of approximately 0.4%. India is preparing to temporarily face higher U.S. tariffs, anticipating a potential agreement with the U.S. by September or October regarding tariffs ranging from 20% to 25% [1]. Group 1 - U.S. stock futures are experiencing minor fluctuations, indicating a stable market environment [1]. - Nasdaq 100 futures are showing a gain of about 0.4%, reflecting positive investor sentiment [1]. - India is preparing for a potential increase in U.S. tariffs, which could range from 20% to 25% [1]. Group 2 - India expects to reach an agreement with the U.S. by September or October, which may address the tariff situation [1].

执行：毕秋兰 刘小军 编导：吴轶楠 张旭烨 刘雯文 视频制作：邓琦 曾馨颐 视觉设计：杨霁昕 06:02 美欧7月27日宣布达成新协议，美国将对欧盟输美产品征收15%的关税，欧盟将对美增加6000亿美元投 资及购买价值7500亿美元的美国能源等。欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席贝恩德·朗格表示，这项协议总 体上将削弱欧盟的经济发展。 本期《新华网国际看点》连线北京外国语大学区域与全球治理高等研究院教授崔洪建。他认为，欧盟并 没有真正下决心以关税战的方式来应对美国单边征税措施，15%的关税将严重冲击欧洲国家的经济和民 生，对其财政、市场信心、产业投资等将造成难以估量的损失。 策划：车玉明 刘加文 统筹：杨定都 徐倩 新华网海外传播中心制作 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the analysis implies a short - term upward support situation [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bearish trend according to the star - rating system [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, suggesting a bearish trend [1] - Asphalt: Not explicitly stated, with a neutral view on supply and weak demand but some price support [3] - LPG: ★☆☆, representing a bearish bias [1] Core View - The macro - economic and geopolitical factors have an impact on the energy market, with different products showing various trends. The overall energy market is affected by factors such as inventory changes, production adjustments, and demand fluctuations. The prices of these energy products generally follow the trend of crude oil to some extent, but each has its own supply - demand characteristics [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, global crude oil inventory has decreased by 1.9%, refined oil inventory has increased by 1.4%, and the overall petroleum inventory has decreased by 0.7% after increases in the first and second quarters. There are expectations for a more relaxed balance sheet after OPEC+ production returns. There are positive macro - economic expectations from trade agreements and negotiations. The short - term market has upward support [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Macro and geopolitical news boosts oil prices, but fuel - related futures' cracking spreads are expected to be under pressure. In July, the arrival volume in the Singapore market increased by 22.5% month - on - month to 6.55 million tons, and the demand for ship refueling weakened. The cracking spreads are likely to be in a weak and volatile state [2] Asphalt - The planned production in August decreased compared to July, but there are signs of potential production increases. Demand recovery is delayed in the South due to typhoons and is weak in the North. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The supply increase space is considered neutral, demand has a weak reality but a repair expectation, and the price is supported by low inventory and follows the crude oil trend with limited upward space [3] LPG - Traders are cautious about potential CP price cuts at the end of the month. Exports increase and put pressure on the overseas market. The import cost decline improves chemical profit margins, and the PDH operating rate has room to rise. The supply is relatively loose, and the market is under pressure, showing a weak and volatile trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU is perceived as unfavorable for Europe, as it involves a 15% tariff on EU products while requiring significant investments and purchases from the U.S. [2][10][15] Group 1: Agreement Details - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on EU products, aligning with the rate set for Japan [2] - The EU is expected to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [2][14] - The agreement is seen as a trade-off where Europe accepts higher tariffs in exchange for investment commitments [3][4] Group 2: European Response - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen acknowledged that while the 15% tariff is not ideal, it is the best outcome they could achieve [5] - There are significant dissenting voices within Europe, with leaders like the French Prime Minister criticizing the agreement as detrimental to European interests [20][21] - The agreement is compared to historical unequal treaties, suggesting that Europe is sacrificing its own benefits [22][23] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The agreement reinforces Europe's energy dependence on the U.S., especially in light of recent geopolitical tensions [33][34] - The U.S. may leverage this energy dependency to impose higher prices on European imports [34][37] - The U.S. is expected to pursue similar agreements with other nations, particularly Japan, using its strategic advantages [41][43]

Group 1 - The core agreement between the US and EU involves a 15% tariff rate, increasing the effective tariff on EU goods exported to the US from approximately 10% to about 16% [1] - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for the impact of trade tensions on the Eurozone's GDP from -0.6% to -0.4%, indicating a more positive outlook for the European economy [1][6] - The agreement is expected to positively influence European growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, raising predictions by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1% and 1.2% respectively [1][6] Group 2 - The automotive sector benefits significantly from the agreement, with tariffs on cars reduced from 27.5% to 15%, impacting approximately €60 billion in exports, which constitutes 10% of total EU exports to the US [2] - Germany and Italy are the primary beneficiaries, accounting for 74% of EU automotive exports to the US [2] Group 3 - Pharmaceutical products are temporarily exempt from the new 15% tariff until early 2027 due to the sensitivity of drug pricing, with Ireland, Germany, Belgium, and Italy being the main beneficiaries of this exemption [3] Group 4 - Tariffs on steel and aluminum will remain at 50%, while the EU plans to reduce trade barriers through tariff cuts and quota systems [4] - Steel and aluminum products represent only 4% of the EU's total exports to the US, approximately €23 billion [4] Group 5 - The EU has committed to significantly increasing its procurement of US energy products, aiming for $750 billion over three years, which would triple current imports and account for 60% of EU energy imports [5] - Achieving this procurement goal is considered highly challenging, even with existing plans included [5] Group 6 - The overall economic impact of the tariff agreement is better than expected, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its GDP growth forecasts upward for 2025 and 2026, while also noting a slight increase in inflation expectations for 2026 [6]

泰国财政部长Pichai Chunhavajira：泰国和美国预计将达成关税协议的主要部分。 对泰国的关税公告将由美国发布。 泰国非常接近与美国达成贸易协议。 泰国的关税税率可能低于36%。 ...

Group 1: National Childcare Subsidy Policy - The national childcare subsidy plan will provide 3,600 yuan per year for each child until they reach 3 years old, starting from January 1, 2025, benefiting over 20 million families [1][2] - The subsidy can be claimed online or offline, with specific distribution times determined by local governments [1] - The policy aims to reduce the financial burden of raising children and is a significant step towards encouraging childbirth [1] Group 2: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first half of 2023, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China totaled 34,365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [3] - In June, profits amounted to 7,155.8 billion yuan, with a decline of 4.3%, but the drop was less severe than in May [3] - The manufacturing sector showed improvement, with profits turning from a decline of 4.1% in May to a growth of 1.4% in June [3] Group 3: US-EU Trade Agreement - The US and EU reached a preliminary agreement on a 15% tariff rate, with the EU committing to invest an additional 600 billion USD in the US [5][6] - The agreement includes a unified tariff rate for various goods, although there are inconsistencies in the details regarding pharmaceuticals and steel [5][6] - This trade agreement is seen as a way to reduce global trade tensions, but further negotiations are needed to finalize the details [6] Group 4: AI Development and Investment - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai attracted over 1,572 leaders from 73 countries, with an expected procurement amount of approximately 16.2 billion yuan [7] - The conference highlighted the competitive landscape of AI, with the US leading in model development and China excelling in application [8] - Shanghai's initiative to issue 600 million yuan in computing power vouchers aims to support AI startups and enhance the city's AI infrastructure [9][10] Group 5: Tesla and Samsung Partnership - Tesla signed a significant chip supply agreement worth 16.5 billion USD with Samsung, focusing on the production of AI chips [11] - This partnership is expected to boost Samsung's chip manufacturing capabilities and improve its market position [12] - The collaboration reflects Tesla's commitment to advancing its AI technology, although it carries some risks due to Samsung's current technological standing [12] Group 6: Cryptocurrency Lending - New digital asset institutions are re-entering the cryptocurrency lending market, offering unsecured loans with high interest rates in response to rising digital asset prices [13] - The lending model targets underserved populations, with a high initial default rate of around 40% [13][14] - The approach raises concerns about the sustainability of such lending practices, especially in volatile markets [14] Group 7: Stock Market Performance - On July 28, the stock market experienced a slight rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,597.94 points, up 0.12% [15] - The market showed mixed performance across sectors, with technology and innovative drug stocks performing well, while cyclical stocks like steel and coal faced declines [15][16] - The overall market demonstrated resilience, with a noticeable recovery in investor sentiment [16]

Report Information - Report Title: "Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Preferences, Copper and Aluminum Prices Remain High - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.07.28" [1] - Author: Liu Peiyang [2] - Contact Information: Phone 0371 - 58620083, Email liupy_qh@ccnew.com, Professional Certificate No. F0290318, Trading Consultation No. Z0011155 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Copper - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. Although the supply in Shanghai has increased recently, the overall supply remains tight. The downstream consumption willingness is low due to high copper prices. The impact of tariffs on copper prices has been gradually digested, and prices are expected to remain bullish after stabilizing [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Shanghai Copper 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 81,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 77,000 yuan/ton [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. Under the pressure of increased supply and the off - season of consumption, the inventory is expected to accumulate. However, the improvement of domestic macro - expectations will support aluminum prices, which are expected to remain high and fluctuate [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 21,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 20,200 yuan/ton [6]. Alumina - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. As of July 24, the national alumina weekly operating rate increased by 0.45 percentage points to 81.19%. The current spot - futures arbitrage window is open, and the warehouse receipt inventory is expected to increase. With the bullish domestic macro - expectations and low warehouse receipts, the alumina futures price is expected to be strong [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Alumina 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 3,600 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 3,000 yuan/ton. A bullish approach is recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review Weekly Market Review - The cumulative weekly price changes from July 21 to July 25 were calculated for various metals including Shanghai Copper, International Copper, LME Copper, etc. [16] Weekly News Review - On July 21, the IAI reported that global primary aluminum production in June was 6.045 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [17]. - From this year to next year, 13.6 million tons of alumina projects in Guangxi are waiting to be put into production, while there is no new alumina capacity in Shanxi and Henan, and some factories may face elimination [17]. - On July 24, the EU started monitoring the import and export of scrap metals such as steel, aluminum, and copper due to supply shortages and smelter shutdown risks [17]. - On July 24, Japanese copper smelters were in difficult mid - year negotiations on processing and refining fees (TC/RCs) [17] 02. Macroeconomic Analysis Domestic Market - On July 21, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations [21]. Overseas Market - On July 22, the US reached a trade agreement with Japan, with a 15% tariff rate and a $550 billion Japanese investment in the US [22]. - On July 27, the US reached a 15% tariff agreement with the EU, with the EU increasing investment in the US by $600 billion, buying US military equipment and $750 billion worth of US energy products [22] 03. Copper Market Analysis Spot Market - The processing fee TC remained weak [26] Futures Market - The net long position in COMEX copper declined [29] Overseas Market - The US dollar index declined [33] Inventory - Exchange inventories of copper in SHFE, LME, and COMEX, as well as Shanghai bonded area inventories, were presented [35]. - As of July 24, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 11.42 million tons. The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises decreased, and the inventory accumulated. The future operating rate is expected to continue to decline [41] 04. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Domestic Market - The spot premium of aluminum narrowed [44] Overseas Market - The US dollar index weakened [48] Inventory - Weekly inventories of SHFE aluminum, aluminum rod social inventory, electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and LME aluminum total inventory were shown [50] Downstream Operating Rate - As of July 24, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different sectors had different performances, and the weekly operating rate is expected to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% [52] Recycled Aluminum Alloy - As of July 24, the SMM ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton. The cost increased, but the demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [56] Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum were analyzed, and the profit was presented in a graph [60] 05. Alumina Market Analysis Spot Market - The spot price of alumina remained stable [63] Futures Market - The inventory of alumina futures was at a low level [66] Supply and Demand - Supply: The supply of alumina decreased slightly due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in a southwestern plant. As of July 24, the built - in capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 93.2 million tons [71]. - Demand: The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly, leading to an increase in alumina demand [71] Cost and Profit - The cost of alumina increased slightly this week due to factors such as the price changes of bauxite, liquid caustic soda, and thermal coal. As of July 24, the industry cost was 2,997.62 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 250.36 yuan/ton [72]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/7/28 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 1502.800 | -28.1↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1737.8 | | +7.10↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2510-EC2512价差 -235.00 | -42.30↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | -38.20 | | -46.90↓ | | EC合约基差 813.76 -59.24↓ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 50694 717↑ | | | | | | 2316.56 SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -83.94↓ SCFIS（美西线） ...

匈牙利总理欧尔班：欧盟与美国的关税协议比英美关税协议更糟。 ...