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每日机构分析:7月24日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-24 12:33
凯投宏观:美欧关税协定对欧元区经济影响有限,欧央行货币政策或维持不变 三井住友银行:美日关税协议达成,潜在通胀改善或促使日本9月加息 荷兰国际集团:欧洲央行担忧欧元升值可能导致欧元走弱 【机构分析】 凯投宏观经济学家指出,即使欧盟与美国达成限制关税的贸易协定,其对欧元区经济的实际影响将是有 限的。虽然该协定能够避免贸易壁垒的破坏性升级,但相比欧洲央行基准预测所依据的经济假设,实际 效果会稍微不利一些。欧洲央行行长拉加德不太可能因此改变现有的政策立场。 Trinh Nguyen指出,菲律宾和日本与美国达成的关税协议给韩国和其他国家带来了敲定类似协议的压 力。亚洲经济体将需要适应一种新常态,即10%的关税被视为"新的零关税"。印尼和菲律宾以19%的关 税水平达成协议,为泰国和马来西亚等其他国家设定了较高的门槛。 星展银行策略师表示,由于日本自民党在参议院选举中的失利,存在增加民粹主义支出的可能性,这将 推升中长期日本国债的收益率。为了应对民众对于生活成本上升的担忧,日本央行可能需要在今年年底 前考虑加息。 (文章来源:新华财经) 三井住友银行经济学家Junya Takemoto指出,美国将日本商品的全面关税税率设 ...
有色商品日报(2025年7月24日)-20250724
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 07:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.36% to $9,933.5/ton, while SHFE copper fell 0.16% to 79,680 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import is still slightly in the red. With the approaching August tariff deadline, the EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on $100 billion of US goods. Trump's claim of a US - Japan agreement has led to market optimism. The third - round China - US consultations are set to take place in Sweden next week. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,567 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts dropped by 9,972 tons. Affected by the off - season, consumption is weak, but some enterprises are stocking up in advance due to concerns about price increases. The Inner Mongolia flotation incident may cause safety - related production cuts, intensifying the shortage of concentrates. With the approaching August 1st, although there are many positive factors, uncertainties also exist, so weekly market trends should be viewed with caution. The domestic anti - involution impact on the market has eased, and its impact on copper is relatively weak but still affects market sentiment [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a weak and volatile trend. Alumina's AO2509 closed at 3,366 yuan/ton, down 1.55%, with an increase in open interest. Shanghai aluminum's AL2509 closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.46%, also with an increase in open interest. The aluminum alloy's AD2511 closed at 20,140 yuan/ton, down 0.35%, with a decrease in open interest. The SMM alumina price rebounded, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots decreased. The processing fees of aluminum rods and some aluminum products changed. Due to the maintenance of some alumina plants, the commissioning of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the southwest, and low warehouse receipts, the supply of alumina is tight. As the amount of goods delivered to the warehouse recovers and may peak, it is difficult to short - sell under the anti - involution effect. New orders for electrolytic aluminum processing are shrinking, and inventory accumulation in the off - season has started, which forms a game with low near - month warehouse receipts. The unilateral rebound space of aluminum alloy is limited, and attention can be paid to the AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunity when the refined - scrap spread narrows [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.29% to $15,575/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.1% to 123,660 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,220 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 122 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel spread increased by 50 yuan/ton. Weekly nickel ore prices were stable, nickel - iron prices were at a three - year low, and nickel salt prices declined slightly. For stainless steel, cost support is weakening, weekly inventory has decreased, and supply in July has decreased slightly month - on - month, indicating that the supply - demand pattern may be gradually improving. The domestic weekly inventory of primary nickel has increased, and market pressure is emerging. In the short term, prices will still fluctuate, with market sentiment, overseas policies, and fundamentals in a game [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 45 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 120 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free and low - oxygen copper rods remained unchanged. The weekly TC for copper smelting remained unchanged. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 9,972 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 3,094 tons. The social inventory (including bonded areas) decreased by 0.4 million tons. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 160 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 5 yuan/ton. The prices of lead concentrates and processing fees remained unchanged. LME lead inventory increased by 650 tons, SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 200 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 7,186 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 7.2 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 20 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of low - and high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained unchanged, and the price of Shandong alumina increased by 10 yuan/ton. The processing fees of some aluminum products increased. LME aluminum inventory increased by 6,350 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3,161 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 5,625 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, and the alumina inventory decreased by 1.5 million tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 49.65 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss increased by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton, and the spreads of Jinchuan nickel and imported nickel to Wuxi decreased. The prices of nickel ore, nickel - iron, and some stainless steel products remained unchanged, while the prices of some new - energy nickel products decreased. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,220 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 122 tons, and the weekly SHFE nickel inventory increased by 230 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social nickel inventory increased by 1,165 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 228 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 210 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 increased by 0.2%, and the LmeS3 price and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. The near - far month spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The prices of SMM 0 and 1 zinc increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the domestic and imported zinc spot premiums decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 dollars/ton. The prices of zinc alloys and zinc oxide increased. The weekly TC for zinc remained unchanged. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,275 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The active contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased by 0.5%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The near - far month spread decreased by 130 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price increased by 2,600 yuan/ton, and the prices of tin concentrates increased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The domestic spot premium remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 32 dollars/ton. SHFE tin inventory increased by 51 tons, LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE tin increased by 16 tons, and those of LME tin decreased by 225 tons. The active contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton, and the tariff was 3% [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [6][7][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the near - far month spreads (such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin) from 2020 - 2025 are presented [15][18][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are presented [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of the copper concentrate index, copper scrap processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are provided [42][44][46]. 3.3 Non - Technical Content - **Team Introduction**: The report introduces the non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research, a senior precious metals researcher, and has rich experience. Wang Heng focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel. They have all achieved good results in research and service [49][50]
贸易协议提振市场信心,特斯拉业绩逊于预期
Wind万得· 2025-07-23 22:28
Market Overview - The market sentiment has improved due to recent trade negotiations, leading to a rise in US stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 507.85 points, or 1.14%, closing at 45,010.29 points, just 4 points shy of its historical high. The S&P 500 rose by 0.78% to 6,358.91 points, marking its 12th record close of the year, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.61%, closing above 21,000 points for the first time [1][2]. Trade Agreements - The US aims to finalize more trade agreements before the August 1 tariff deadline. Recently, the White House announced a framework agreement with Indonesia, following previous agreements with countries including China and the UK. President Trump mentioned a "significant agreement" with Japan, which includes a 15% reciprocal tariff on Japanese exports to the US. This is part of a broader strategy to expedite negotiations with major trading partners before the critical tariff deadline [3][9]. Earnings Reports - The focus is shifting towards the earnings season, particularly the performance of tech giants. Alphabet reported strong Q2 earnings, with revenue of $96.43 billion, exceeding market expectations of $94 billion, and earnings per share of $2.31, above the anticipated $2.18. The company plans to increase its capital expenditure for 2025 from $75 billion to $85 billion to meet growing demand in cloud computing and AI [5][6]. - Tesla's Q2 earnings showed a 16% year-over-year decline in automotive revenue, marking the second consecutive quarter of sales decline. Total revenue was $22.5 billion, slightly below the expected $22.74 billion. The automotive business revenue fell to $16.7 billion from $19.9 billion year-over-year, and revenue from regulatory credits dropped significantly [6][7]. Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that the US's basic "reciprocal" tariff rate will increase from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and key minerals reaching 50%. This could exacerbate inflationary pressures and suppress economic growth. The firm has adjusted its inflation and GDP growth forecasts accordingly, projecting a 1% reduction in GDP growth for 2025 [12]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in July, with market participants anticipating a potential rate cut in September. Economists predict that the Fed will have to tolerate higher inflation levels while considering the impact of new tariff policies on the economy [14][15].
欧元短线拉升大约20点,逼近1.1750,日内迄今整体上窄幅震荡、并大致持平。欧元区STOXX 50股指期货涨2.4%,欧洲债券价格下跌。标普500指数涨0.57%,道指涨375点涨幅0.84%,纳指涨0.39%,半导体指数跌0.21%。据媒体报道,美国和欧盟接近围绕(特朗普政府对欧盟)征收15%关税达成协议。美国和欧盟将免除飞机、烈酒、以及医疗器械关税。
news flash· 2025-07-23 16:03
Group 1 - The euro experienced a short-term rise of approximately 20 points, approaching 1.1750, with overall narrow fluctuations and remaining roughly flat during the day [1] - The Eurozone STOXX 50 index futures increased by 2.4%, while European bond prices declined [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.57%, the Dow Jones increased by 375 points or 0.84%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.39%, whereas the semiconductor index fell by 0.21% [1] Group 2 - Reports indicate that the US and EU are close to reaching an agreement regarding the 15% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on the EU [1] - The US and EU will eliminate tariffs on aircraft, spirits, and medical devices [1]
美欧接近达成15%关税协议。
news flash· 2025-07-23 16:02
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the US and Europe are nearing an agreement on a 15% tariff deal, which could significantly impact trade relations between the two regions [1] Group 2 - The potential agreement is expected to address various sectors, including technology and agriculture, which have been contentious points in US-EU trade discussions [1] - The 15% tariff rate is seen as a compromise that could facilitate smoother trade and reduce tensions between the US and Europe [1]
关税谈判“投降”、石破茂辞职,为何日股暴涨、日债下跌?
凤凰网财经· 2025-07-23 13:58
Group 1 - The announcement of a trade agreement between the US and Japan has led to a significant rise in the Japanese stock market, with the Nikkei 225 index increasing nearly 4% [1][5] - The agreement includes a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, which is lower than the previously feared 25%, positively impacting automotive stocks such as Mazda and Toyota [1][5] - The market's optimistic response is also influenced by rumors of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation, which investors believe could lead to a more favorable fiscal policy direction [3][6] Group 2 - The yield on Japanese government bonds has risen sharply, with the 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level since October 2008 at 1.6%, reflecting increased expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3][9] - The trade agreement is expected to facilitate easier interest rate increases for the Bank of Japan, as indicated by analysts [8][9] - Concerns about government spending growth have led to weaker demand for 40-year government bonds, highlighting investor worries about Japan's fiscal outlook [9]
供需支撑转强 预计短期焦炭或延续偏强运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-23 06:36
Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, with coking coal futures experiencing fluctuations and a current increase of approximately 2.19% [1] - The main coking coal futures contract opened at 1686.0 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 1740.5 CNY and a low of 1647.5 CNY during the trading session [1] - The supply of raw materials is gradually improving, with iron output reported at 242.44 million tons, an increase of 2.63 million tons, indicating strong coal mine pricing intentions [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment is bullish due to the strong performance of black series futures, supported by stable demand from downstream steel mills and rising coking coal prices [2] - The coking coal market is expected to maintain a strong position in the short term, with operational ranges for coking coal futures projected between 1700-1750 CNY [2] - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in China is reported at 43 CNY, indicating a challenging profit environment for coking enterprises [1]
重磅!特朗普,突然宣布!集体飙涨!
券商中国· 2025-07-23 00:44
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that significant trade agreements have been reached between the United States and Japan, as well as with the Philippines and Indonesia, which are expected to have substantial economic impacts [1][3][5]. Group 2 - The United States will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, while Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S. and open its market to various products including automobiles and agricultural goods [1][3]. - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is under pressure to finalize the trade agreement due to recent political setbacks, which may influence his negotiations with the U.S. [3][4]. - The Nikkei index rose over 1.7% following the announcement, with significant gains in the automotive sector, including a 10% increase in Toyota's stock price [1][3]. Group 3 - The Philippines will open its market to the U.S. with zero tariffs, while agreeing to pay a 19% tariff on certain goods, alongside military cooperation [2][5]. - The U.S. imported $14 billion worth of goods from the Philippines last year, primarily electronics and processed foods, while exporting $9 billion to the Philippines [5]. Group 4 - Indonesia will eliminate tariffs on over 99% of U.S. goods and remove non-tariff barriers, reducing its tariffs on U.S. imports from 32% to 19% [6]. - The agreement with Indonesia includes acceptance of U.S. automotive safety standards and the removal of restrictions on key mineral exports [6].
美国总统特朗普就菲律宾和关税问题表示:我们可能会达成某种协议。
news flash· 2025-07-22 16:11
Core Viewpoint - President Trump indicated that the U.S. may reach some form of agreement regarding the Philippines and tariff issues [1] Group 1 - The potential agreement could impact trade relations between the U.S. and the Philippines [1] - Tariff discussions are part of broader negotiations that may affect various industries [1]
泰国称接近与美国达成协议,新关税税率或降至20%左右
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-22 10:45
Group 1 - Thailand is nearing a crucial trade agreement with the U.S. to avoid punitive tariffs of up to 36% on its exports, which is vital for its export-driven economy [1][4] - The negotiations have progressed over 90%, with Thailand expected to submit final details to U.S. trade officials shortly, aiming for a new tariff rate around 20% [1][2] - The U.S. is Thailand's largest export market, accounting for 18% of its total shipments in 2024, and the recent negotiations have led to a 15% increase in exports in the first five months of this year [1][4] Group 2 - Thailand has expanded its list of U.S. goods to be subject to zero tariffs from over 60% to 90%, including significant purchases of U.S. agricultural products and investments in projects like the Alaska gas project [2][4] - The trade surplus with the U.S. reached $46 billion last year, which is a central issue in the ongoing trade friction [4] - The Thai government is making concessions to minimize the economic impact of punitive tariffs, especially amid rising domestic debt and weak consumer spending [4][5] Group 3 - The final stages of negotiations are focused on addressing remaining requests from the U.S., with expectations for a tariff rate comparable to those negotiated with Vietnam and Indonesia [3][4] - The Thai government is assessing its capacity to meet the U.S.'s expectations regarding policy formulation and issue handling [5]