Report Information - Report Title: "Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Preferences, Copper and Aluminum Prices Remain High - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.07.28" [1] - Author: Liu Peiyang [2] - Contact Information: Phone 0371 - 58620083, Email liupy_qh@ccnew.com, Professional Certificate No. F0290318, Trading Consultation No. Z0011155 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Copper - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. Although the supply in Shanghai has increased recently, the overall supply remains tight. The downstream consumption willingness is low due to high copper prices. The impact of tariffs on copper prices has been gradually digested, and prices are expected to remain bullish after stabilizing [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Shanghai Copper 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 81,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 77,000 yuan/ton [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. Under the pressure of increased supply and the off - season of consumption, the inventory is expected to accumulate. However, the improvement of domestic macro - expectations will support aluminum prices, which are expected to remain high and fluctuate [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 21,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 20,200 yuan/ton [6]. Alumina - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. As of July 24, the national alumina weekly operating rate increased by 0.45 percentage points to 81.19%. The current spot - futures arbitrage window is open, and the warehouse receipt inventory is expected to increase. With the bullish domestic macro - expectations and low warehouse receipts, the alumina futures price is expected to be strong [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Alumina 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 3,600 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 3,000 yuan/ton. A bullish approach is recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review Weekly Market Review - The cumulative weekly price changes from July 21 to July 25 were calculated for various metals including Shanghai Copper, International Copper, LME Copper, etc. [16] Weekly News Review - On July 21, the IAI reported that global primary aluminum production in June was 6.045 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [17]. - From this year to next year, 13.6 million tons of alumina projects in Guangxi are waiting to be put into production, while there is no new alumina capacity in Shanxi and Henan, and some factories may face elimination [17]. - On July 24, the EU started monitoring the import and export of scrap metals such as steel, aluminum, and copper due to supply shortages and smelter shutdown risks [17]. - On July 24, Japanese copper smelters were in difficult mid - year negotiations on processing and refining fees (TC/RCs) [17] 02. Macroeconomic Analysis Domestic Market - On July 21, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations [21]. Overseas Market - On July 22, the US reached a trade agreement with Japan, with a 15% tariff rate and a $550 billion Japanese investment in the US [22]. - On July 27, the US reached a 15% tariff agreement with the EU, with the EU increasing investment in the US by $600 billion, buying US military equipment and $750 billion worth of US energy products [22] 03. Copper Market Analysis Spot Market - The processing fee TC remained weak [26] Futures Market - The net long position in COMEX copper declined [29] Overseas Market - The US dollar index declined [33] Inventory - Exchange inventories of copper in SHFE, LME, and COMEX, as well as Shanghai bonded area inventories, were presented [35]. - As of July 24, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 11.42 million tons. The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises decreased, and the inventory accumulated. The future operating rate is expected to continue to decline [41] 04. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Domestic Market - The spot premium of aluminum narrowed [44] Overseas Market - The US dollar index weakened [48] Inventory - Weekly inventories of SHFE aluminum, aluminum rod social inventory, electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and LME aluminum total inventory were shown [50] Downstream Operating Rate - As of July 24, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different sectors had different performances, and the weekly operating rate is expected to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% [52] Recycled Aluminum Alloy - As of July 24, the SMM ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton. The cost increased, but the demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [56] Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum were analyzed, and the profit was presented in a graph [60] 05. Alumina Market Analysis Spot Market - The spot price of alumina remained stable [63] Futures Market - The inventory of alumina futures was at a low level [66] Supply and Demand - Supply: The supply of alumina decreased slightly due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in a southwestern plant. As of July 24, the built - in capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 93.2 million tons [71]. - Demand: The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly, leading to an increase in alumina demand [71] Cost and Profit - The cost of alumina increased slightly this week due to factors such as the price changes of bauxite, liquid caustic soda, and thermal coal. As of July 24, the industry cost was 2,997.62 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 250.36 yuan/ton [72]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/7/28 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 1502.800 | -28.1↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1737.8 | | +7.10↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2510-EC2512价差 -235.00 | -42.30↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | -38.20 | | -46.90↓ | | EC合约基差 813.76 -59.24↓ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 50694 717↑ | | | | | | 2316.56 SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -83.94↓ SCFIS（美西线） ...

匈牙利总理欧尔班：欧盟与美国的关税协议比英美关税协议更糟。 ...

关税协议"不平衡"。 法国欧洲事务部长Haddad：关税协议带来"暂时稳定"。 ...

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that gold prices remain within a fluctuating range while silver prices have seen further increases [2][3] - The report highlights the impact of rumors regarding reduced tariffs between the US and EU, which has led to decreased safe-haven demand for precious metals [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts within the year, with a 61.9% probability for a cut in September [2] Precious Metals - Gold price for the week was $3343.50 per ounce, down $11.60 from July 18, reflecting a decrease of 0.35% [2] - Silver price for the week was $38.74 per ounce, up $0.46 from July 18, reflecting an increase of 1.22% [2] - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.5, below expectations of 52.7 [2] - US durable goods orders for June showed a preliminary value of -9.3%, better than the expected -10.7% [2] Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $9839 per ton, up $119 from July 18, an increase of 1.22% [5] - SHFE copper closed at 79170 yuan per ton, up 760 yuan from July 18, an increase of 0.97% [5] - Domestic aluminum price was 20800 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from July 18 [6] - LME aluminum inventory was 450825 tons, up 20125 tons from July 18 [6] Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 271360 yuan per ton, up 5460 yuan from July 18, an increase of 2.05% [8] - Antimony ingot price remained stable at 184500 yuan per ton, with weak demand affecting transactions [10] Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The gold industry is rated "recommended" due to the ongoing rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [11] - The copper industry is also rated "recommended" despite short-term demand weakness, with expectations of tightening supply-demand dynamics in the medium to long term [12] - The aluminum industry maintains a "recommended" rating, anticipating similar supply-demand conditions [13] - The tin industry is rated "recommended" due to supply tightness potentially supporting prices [13] - The antimony industry is rated "recommended" with expectations of long-term supply tightness supporting prices [13] Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Shanjin International [14] - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, HeSteel Resources, and Cangge Mining [14] - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [14] - Antimony industry recommendations include Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous [14] - Tin industry recommendations include Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xingye Silver Tin [14]

特朗普表示，有关钢铁和铝的关税将保持现状，能源是这份协议的关键部分，协议将有利于汽车行业，对 农业也将产生重大影响，美国将在芯片领域投入大量精力，英国首相对这份协议感到高兴。 美国商务部长卢特尼克表示，美国将在两周之内确定有关芯片的关税政策。 特朗普表示，美国正在考虑与其他三到四个国家达成协议，大多数协议都将涉及确定的关税，美国会对其 他国家保持低关税，各国会在未来一周收到澄清或确认函，确认关税函将于8月1日前发出。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，欧盟与美国双方同意实行统一的15%关税税率，包括汽车在内的各类商品 将适用该关税标准。冯德莱恩称，这些与美国的贸易协议将为市场带来稳定性。 美国与欧盟达成关税协议。 今日（7月28日）凌晨，美国总统特朗普宣布，美国已与欧盟达成15%税率的关税协议。欧盟委员会主席 冯德莱恩表示，欧盟与美国双方同意实行统一的15%关税税率，包括汽车在内的各类商品将适用该关税标 准。 受此影响，美股股指期货周一集体高开，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.34%，纳指期货涨0.42%，标普500指 数期货涨0.34%。欧元兑美元汇率亦小幅走强，现涨0.16%。 值得一提的是，在关税协议达成后，欧盟内部 ...

特朗普：正在考虑与其他三到四个国家达成协议 金十数据7月28日讯，特朗普表示，美国正在考虑与其他三到四个国家达成协议，大多数协议都将涉及 确定的关税，美国会对其他国家保持低关税，各国会在未来一周收到澄清或确认函，确认关税函将于8 月1日前发出。 ...

据央视报道，特朗普宣布美国与欧盟达成15%税率关税协议，卢特尼克称两周内确定关于芯片的关税政 策。 周一悉尼盘初，欧元兑美元超0.31%，报1.1779。 ...

据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普27日表示，美国已与欧盟达成15%税率的关税协议。特朗普表 示，欧盟将比此前增加对美国投资6000亿美元，欧盟将购买美国军事装备，并将购买1500亿 美元的美国能源产品。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，欧盟与美国双方同意实行统一的15%关税税率，包括汽车在 内的各类商品将适用该关税标准。冯德莱恩称，这些与美国的贸易协议将为市场带来稳定性。 ...

当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与欧盟达成15%税率的关税协议。（央视） ...