1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of crude oil continues to be strong due to a decrease in Russian crude oil exports and rising VLCC freight rates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The chemical industry shows a demand for stopping the decline and stabilizing under the situation of crude oil fluctuations [2][3]. - The chemical products in the industry have different trends. Some products may stop falling and stabilize, while others continue to be under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. API data shows an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, but the reduction in refined oil inventories and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 2026, but the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation is difficult to change, so the price fluctuates [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: Affected by the crude oil market, most chemical products are in a state of shock. Some products are facing cost and supply - demand pressures, while others have certain profit supports [3][4]. 3.2 Variety Analysis - **Asphalt**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price lacks support. The high - valued premium is starting to decline, and it is expected that the absolute price is over - valued and the monthly spread may decline [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil weakens, the fuel oil price is weak. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. Facing factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, it has a low valuation and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [9][10]. - **PX**: The supply has not decreased, and there is support for profits under the situation of strong supply and demand. It is expected to return to the cost and fundamental pricing logic in the short - term and maintain range consolidation [11]. - **PTA**: The market is waiting and watching, and there is a bottom - support for short - term profits. It is expected that the price will fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium - term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is running weakly. The pure benzene - naphtha price spread is at a low level in recent years, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Although there are some supply disturbances, the upward drive is still insufficient [11][12]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of inventory over - filling, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost - side has some disturbances, but it does not reverse the situation, and the follow - up rhythm depends on crude oil [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Under the resonance of cost and fundamentals, it is in a downward trend, and the medium - term supply surplus problem is difficult to solve. The price is under pressure in the short - term [15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream factories are digesting previous stockpiles, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed to a certain extent. The price follows the cost and fluctuates weakly [19][20]. - **Bottle Chip**: Affected by cost, the supply - demand drive is limited. The price follows the raw materials, and the support for the processing fee below is enhanced [21]. - **Methanol**: After continuous decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is still value in going long at a low level [23][26]. - **Urea**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the information of the Nanjing Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference [24]. - **Plastic**: The OPEC+ production increase is cautious. Considering the fundamentals and profit situation, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [27][28]. - **PP**: There is still some support on the cost side. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the change and sustainability of maintenance [28][29]. - **PL**: The improvement in downstream transactions is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [29]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cost of integrated production in the northwest may support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the cost is moving up. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the trading strategy is to go short on rallies [31]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring**: The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [33][34][35]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists various chemicals such as methanol, urea, etc., specific content is not fully presented in the provided text. - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline. The energy index also shows a downward trend, with a daily decline of 1.07%, a 5 - day decline of 0.25%, a 1 - month decline of 5.01%, and a decline of 5.08% since the beginning of the year [274][276].

Core Insights - The article highlights the recent performance of oil prices, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.07% to $61.02 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.14% to $64.86 per barrel [1] - OPEC+ has decided to suspend its planned production increase originally scheduled for the first quarter of 2026, leading to expectations of a slowdown in global oil supply growth, which supports oil prices [1] - Institutions like Morgan Stanley have raised their oil price forecasts, reinforcing market confidence in the balance of oil supply and demand [1] Oil Price Performance - WTI crude oil price increased by 0.07% to $61.02 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil price rose by 0.14% to $64.86 per barrel [1] OPEC+ Decision - OPEC+ has suspended the planned production increase for the first quarter of 2026 [1] - This decision has led to market expectations of a slowdown in global oil supply growth [1] Market Confidence - Morgan Stanley and other institutions have adjusted their oil price forecasts upwards [1] - This adjustment has strengthened market confidence regarding the balance of oil supply and demand [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong upward expectation for oil prices in the medium to long term, indicating a potential for significant investment opportunities in the sector [6]. Core Insights - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain its production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December, with a pause in production increases expected in Q1 2026 due to seasonal demand factors [2][3]. - The cumulative production increase by OPEC+ is projected to reach approximately 2.9 million barrels per day by April 2025, with actual increases as of September 2023 at 2.11 million barrels per day, leaving room for an additional 800,000 barrels per day [3]. - The report highlights that geopolitical factors and the pace of domestic strategic oil reserve replenishment are key variables that could alter the supply-demand balance expected in 2026 [4]. - Non-OPEC supply, particularly from U.S. shale oil and offshore production in Brazil and Guyana, is a focal point for market observers, with U.S. production in October 2023 averaging 13.64 million barrels per day, an increase of 110,000 barrels per day year-on-year [5]. Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in Q1 2026, which is seen as a response to seasonal demand trends rather than a shift towards a price war [3]. - The report anticipates that OPEC+ may resume production increases after Q1 2026, influenced by ongoing developments in non-OPEC production and geopolitical dynamics [3][4]. Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly sanctions on Russia, could lead to short-term supply shortages but are more likely to result in shifts in trade routes rather than a significant reduction in supply [4]. - The potential for actual supply losses from Venezuela and Nigeria, along with the pace of U.S. strategic reserve replenishment, could significantly impact the supply-demand outlook for 2026 [4]. Non-OPEC Supply Trends - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of offshore oil production, particularly in Brazil and Guyana, with Brazil's production in September 2023 increasing by 410,000 barrels per day year-on-year [5]. - The performance of large oil companies versus independent producers in the U.S. shale sector shows a divergence, with larger firms generally performing better [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that if the pace of U.S. strategic reserve replenishment exceeds expectations or if geopolitical risks escalate, the outlook for supply-demand balance in 2026 could be revised positively [6]. - The midstream and downstream sectors are expected to stabilize and improve, with a focus on leading companies in these areas for long-term investment value [6].

2025 年 11 月 3 日 行业研究 OPEC+暂停增产改善供给过剩，"三桶油"长期投资价值凸显 ——石化化工行业动态跟踪 要点 事件： 11 月 2 日，OPEC+在线上会议后宣布将于 12 月增产 13.7 万桶/日，并将 于 2026 年 1-3 月暂停增产计划。 点评： 暂停增产反映 OPEC+平衡油价诉求，25 年 1-9 月 OPEC+增产约 240 万桶/日。 本次暂停增产决策表明 OPEC+在稳定与增产间寻求平衡，在 25 年四季度至 26 年一季度原油需求预期低迷、累库风险预期走高的背景下，OPEC+通过暂停增 产释放平衡油价的诉求。2025 年以来，OPEC+通过大幅增产以惩罚超产成员国 和争夺全球原油市场份额，沙特等自愿减产 8 国先后取消两大自愿减产限额， 2025 年 9 月 OPEC+原油产量为 4304 万桶/日，较 2024 年 12 月上升 239 万桶/ 日，其中 OPEC+自愿减产 8 国产量上升 241 万桶/日。OPEC+重申将根据原油 市场变化决定原油产量，本次暂停增产有望改善市场对原油供给端的担忧。 原油供给过剩有望改善，关注 2026 年需求预期变化。当前原 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - After the positive factors such as sanctions on Russian oil companies, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, and South American geopolitical risks were digested, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures stopped rising and started to decline last week. The main logic in the crude oil market is still price pressure under loose supply and demand, and geopolitical disturbances cannot reverse the trend. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [6][75]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price drop and basis widening**: As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in Shengli Oilfield was $61.04 per barrel, equivalent to RMB 432.6 per barrel, a significant weekly decline of $10.0 per barrel. The main contract of domestic crude oil futures, 2512, closed at RMB 458.6 per barrel, a significant weekly decline of RMB 6.3 per barrel. The basis widened slightly to RMB 26.0 per barrel [9]. - **Positive factors digested and oil price decline**: After the positive factors were digested, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures stopped rising and started to decline last week. The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a volatile downward trend, with a cumulative weekly decline of 1.33% to RMB 458.7 per barrel [12]. 3.2 Aggravation of Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus and Faster Production Increase - **OPEC+ production increase**: Since April 2025, OPEC+ has gradually abandoned the production - cut strategy and shifted to a "production - increase for market share" strategy. In early November, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, the same as in October. It is expected that the daily new supply in the fourth quarter will exceed 430,000 barrels. In September 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels per day, a significant monthly increase of 524,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 2.346 million barrels per day [22][23]. - **Non - OPEC production at a high level**: Non - OPEC+ countries' production expansion has further aggravated the supply surplus. As of the week ending October 24, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 420, a slight weekly increase of 2, and the daily US crude oil production was 13.644 million barrels, a slight weekly increase of 15,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 144,000 barrels per day [39]. - **End of the peak demand season in the Northern Hemisphere**: After entering October, the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere ended, demand weakened, and inventory accumulation pressure increased. The three major energy institutions have different forecasts for the oil market. EIA and IEA are more pessimistic, expecting an increase in oil inventory and a decline in oil prices [41]. - **US crude oil inventory and refinery utilization rate**: As of the week ending October 24, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly by 6.858 million barrels week - on - week, and the refinery utilization rate was 86.6%, a slight weekly decline of 2.0 percentage points [45]. - **Increase in China's crude oil imports in September 2025**: In September 2025, China imported about 47.25 million tons of crude oil, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% and a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. Russia remained China's largest crude oil supplier, while imports from the US were almost zero [55][56]. 3.3 End of the Israel - Palestine Conflict and Cooling Geopolitical Risks - In October 2025, the Israel - Palestine conflict ended, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East decreased, causing the "geopolitical risk premium" to be squeezed out, and oil prices were under pressure. In contrast, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued, and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries reduced Russia's refining capacity, increasing the supply of discounted crude oil in the global market [63][66]. 3.4 Significant Weekly Decrease in Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market - Since October 2025, the prices of international crude oil futures have been under pressure. As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil decreased by 19,105 contracts compared with the August average, a decline of 15.65%. As of October 21, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds decreased by 164,564 contracts compared with the September average, a decline of 76.06% [71]. 3.5 Conclusion - After the digestion of positive factors, the main logic in the crude oil market is price pressure under loose supply and demand. Geopolitical disturbances exist but are difficult to reverse the trend. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [75].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [3] Core Insights - As of the latest October report, three major institutions (IEA, EIA, OPEC) all expect an oversupply in the crude oil market by 2026, but the extent of the oversupply varies significantly among them. IEA predicts the largest oversupply, primarily due to its highest expectations for supply-side increments and the lowest expectations for demand increments [10][12][13]. - The differences in supply forecasts among the institutions are largely attributed to varying views on OPEC's actual production capacity and the feedback effects of oil prices on production [2][15]. - The demand forecasts show significant uncertainty, particularly regarding China's inventory replenishment needs, which could impact overall demand projections [2][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Balance Differences - All three institutions predict an oversupply in the crude oil market by 2026, with IEA forecasting a surplus of 4 million barrels per day, while EIA and OPEC have lower estimates of 2.07 million and 1.1 million barrels per day, respectively [13][45]. - The divergence in forecasts intensified after June, likely due to OPEC's unexpected acceleration in production [15] 2. Demand Forecast Differences - IEA's demand forecast is the weakest, reflecting concerns over tariff impacts and economic conditions in OECD countries, predicting a decline in oil demand [17][20]. - EIA maintains a more neutral stance, while OPEC is more optimistic about demand growth, particularly in the U.S. and OECD countries [22][26]. 3. Supply Side Differences - IEA expects the highest supply increment for 2026 at 2.4 million barrels per day, while OPEC's forecast is more conservative, focusing on non-OPEC supply increments [33][45]. - The U.S. shale oil production outlook is mixed, with IEA predicting a modest increase while EIA and OPEC express concerns over production declines due to economic pressures [38][39]. - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 1.2 million barrels per day, but EIA suggests that actual increases may fall short of targets due to capacity limits and market conditions [45][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - Short-term geopolitical risks provide support for oil prices, while the mid-term fundamentals remain loose [2][5]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In October 2025, oil prices showed a weak fluctuation. Key events impacting prices included the U.S. government shutdown, OPEC+ maintaining production increases of 137,000 barrels per day, and fragile ceasefire agreements in the Middle East [4]. - The report indicates that after the signing of the ceasefire agreement, the Middle East situation has somewhat eased, leading to a partial release of geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices. However, the market remains pessimistic about demand due to renewed tariff threats from the U.S. [4]. OPEC Production - OPEC+ continues to increase production, with a plan to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in October and November 2025. This indicates an early completion of their recovery plan [8][9]. - In September 2025, OPEC's total crude oil production reached 28,440 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 524 thousand barrels per day from the previous month [9]. Global Oil Demand and Supply Forecast - The EIA forecasts that global oil demand will reach 103.87 million barrels per day in October 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 63.98 million barrels per day. The demand is expected to grow further in 2026 [35]. - The report predicts that global oil supply will increase significantly, with OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries contributing to this growth. The EIA expects a supply surplus in the coming years due to increased production from these regions [26][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic oil companies that are actively exploring and developing oil and gas resources, particularly those with clear production increase targets and potential for overseas market expansion, such as China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC [7].

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-29原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.基本面：德国经济和能源部长莱歇告诉路透，美国政府已书面保证，俄油在德国的业务将免受新的 能源制裁，因为这些资产已不再由俄罗斯控制；以色列总理内塔尼亚胡下令军方立即在加沙发动"强 力打击"，以回应士兵在加沙遇袭事件，此举重新引发了市场对中东供应的担忧；印度石油公司高 管：绝不会完全停止购买俄罗斯原油；中性 2.基差：10月28日，阿曼原油现货价为65.60美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为64.70美元/桶，基差 22.24元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至10月24日当周API原油库存减少4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector [5]. Core Views - The oil price is expected to enter a downward channel due to the end of the peak season and increased production from OPEC+, with short-term volatility anticipated due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil [1][10]. - The average Brent crude oil price is projected to be $68 and $62 per barrel for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 prices expected to be around $63, $61, and $60 per barrel [4][65]. - High-dividend energy companies with production and cost reduction capabilities, as well as growth in natural gas business, are recommended for investment opportunities, specifically China Petroleum (A/H) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (A/H) [4][65]. Supply Side Summary - OPEC+ is expected to release actual production increments starting Q4 2025, with global oil supply increasing by 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [3][42]. - The U.S. announced new sanctions on Russian oil, affecting nearly 50% of the country's total oil exports, which may cause short-term disruptions in global oil trade [3][42]. - Despite these sanctions, the long-term impact on oil supply and demand is expected to be limited due to a generally loose supply-demand situation [3][42]. Demand Side Summary - Global oil demand growth for 2025 has been revised down to 700,000 barrels per day from a previous estimate of 740,000 barrels per day, with 2026 demand growth maintained at 700,000 barrels per day [2][17]. - The end of the traditional peak season has led to a decrease in refinery throughput in major regions, with U.S. refinery utilization rates declining due to seasonal maintenance [2][26]. - China's crude oil imports fell by 4.5% month-on-month in September, indicating a slight decrease in demand [2][29]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends the following companies based on their potential for growth and dividend yield: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (883 HK) - Buy with a target price of 27.49 [7][66] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938 CH) - Buy with a target price of 34.75 [7][66] - China Petroleum (601857 CH) - Hold with a target price of 10.44 [7][66] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (857 HK) - Hold with a target price of 8.80 [7][66]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have shown a strong upward trend due to geopolitical risks, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices closing at $61.50 and $65.94 per barrel respectively, reflecting weekly increases of +6.88% and +7.59% [1] - The international oil market is facing increasing supply pressure as OPEC+ has accelerated its production increase plan, with a projected supply of 34.69 million barrels per day, the highest since December 2018 [2] - Demand is entering a seasonal low, with both EIA and IEA predicting that supply growth will outpace demand growth, leading to a forecasted Brent crude oil price of $62 and $52 per barrel for Q4 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] Supply Summary - OPEC+ has entered a second phase of production increase, adding 1.66 million barrels per day, which will continue to exert supply pressure [2] - Non-OPEC+ countries are also expected to increase production significantly, with the IEA forecasting an additional 1.6 million barrels per day by 2025/2026 [2] Demand Summary - The EIA and IEA have both adjusted their demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating that demand growth will be lower than supply growth, with EIA predicting a demand increase of 1.1 million barrels per day [3] Price Support Analysis - The average breakeven price for new wells developed by U.S. oil and gas companies is approximately $65 per barrel, with large companies having a breakeven price of around $61 per barrel [4] - A significant portion of U.S. oil executives believe that if WTI prices remain at $60 per barrel, production will slightly decrease, and at $50 per barrel, production will significantly decline [4]