金十数据5月15日讯，油价周四下跌约2美元，因市场预期美伊可能达成核协议，或导致制裁放松，而美 国原油上周库存意外增加，加剧了投资者对供应过剩的担忧。一名伊朗官员在周三发布的NBC新闻采 访中表示，伊朗愿意同意与美国达成协议，以换取解除经济制裁。野村证券经济学家Yuki Takashima表 示："新的抛售是由于预期美伊核协议将缓解美国最近收紧的对伊制裁，可能会放松全球原油供需平 衡。"沙特外交部大臣周三表示，沙特完全支持美伊核谈判，并希望取得积极成果。IG分析师Tony Sycamore表示，"我的预测是，我们将在未来一个月左右继续看到油价在区间波动，然而，除非出现意 想不到的地缘政治冲击，否则当区间波动消失时，油价将会下行，向50美元靠拢。" 美伊核协议在望 油价日内跌幅扩大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run strongly. It shows a volatile trend in the short - term, a volatile and slightly weak trend in the medium - term, and a volatile and slightly strong trend intraday [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Performance - Last Friday night, the price of domestic crude oil futures rose slightly by 1.31% to 464.6 yuan per barrel [5] 3.2 Core Logic - OPEC+ oil - producing countries will further accelerate the pace of production increase in June, and US shale oil production is also growing steadily, which increases the expectation of oversupply in the oil market. After the digestion of negative sentiment, as the crude oil consumption peak season approaches in mid - May, the demand factor may gradually strengthen, supporting the crude oil futures price. The progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations boosts market risk appetite [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-12原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2506： 1.基本面：美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔描述会谈取得"实质性进展"，并表示将于周一公布 细节；伊美谈判代表为解决伊朗核问题而举行的新一轮会谈于周日在阿曼结束，官员们表示，双方计 划举行进一步谈判；乌克兰总统泽连斯基周日呼吁俄罗斯确认从5月12日开始无条件停火，然后乌克 兰将准备好与俄罗斯举行直接会谈；中性 2.基差：5月9日，阿曼原油现货价为64.12美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为63.38美元/桶，基差 13.26元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至5月2日当周API原油库存减少449 ...

原油燃料油日报：供需宽松叠加库存压力，原油延续低位震荡 态势 一、日度市场总结 日度市场总结（2025年5月8日） 数据变化分析 期货价格：SC原油价格小幅回落，5月8日报461.0元/桶，较前日下跌7.2元 （-1.54%），盘中波动区间[458.9,483.6]，显示市场情绪偏弱；WTI与Brent价 格维持稳定，分别持平于57.95美元/桶和60.95美元/桶，短期缺乏明确方向。 价差变动：SC-Brent和SC-WTI价差分别走弱1.09美元/桶，至2.76和5.76美元/ 桶，反映SC相对国际油价的贴水扩大；SC连-连3价差走强2.1元至14.5元/桶， 近月合约支撑增强。 供需及库存分析 供给端：OPEC+成员国伊拉克（5月8日资讯）调整6月亚洲原油定价策略，重 质原油贴水扩大至2.70美元/桶，或反映亚洲炼厂对重质原油需求疲软；伊朗重 申支持OPEC+减产协议，但美国康菲石油（5月8日）因油价跌破60美元/桶削减 支出，暗示页岩油产量增速受限。此外，中俄能源合作深化可能长期支撑供应 稳定性。 需求端：美国汽油库存意外上升（5月8日外媒报道）压制市场情绪，叠加4月中 国地炼汽柴油订单环比减少22. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to be volatile. Although short - term geopolitical disturbances and potential declines in US crude oil production have led to a short - term upward repair in market sentiment, the over - production of Kazakhstan and Iraq, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may put pressure on prices [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to be volatile. The reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market, and high - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power generation demand. However, the low raw material procurement demand and the arrival of Middle - East supplies will also have an impact [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to be volatile. With the repair of processing profits, supply is expected to increase. The expected acceleration of special bond issuance and the start of terminal projects with the warming weather will support demand, but attention should be paid to the pressure brought by the increase in supply [2]. - Polyester prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The decline in the prices of PX, PTA, and EG, the weak sales of polyester yarns, and the maintenance of some devices all indicate a weak market [2][4]. - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile and weak. Although Thailand's proposal to reduce import tariffs and the postponement of the rubber tapping season may support the market, the high raw material prices may lead to high tapping enthusiasm, and the weak terminal demand will still put pressure on prices [4][5]. - Methanol prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand will remain relatively stable in May, leading to a loosening of spot price support [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to be volatile and weak. Although the supply is expected to decline due to refinery maintenance, the demand will enter the off - season, and the inventory decline will slow down [6]. - PVC prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. The real - estate construction off - season will reduce the demand for PVC downstream products, and the approaching implementation of the Indian BIS certification may lead to a decline in exports [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI June contract closed at $59.09/barrel, up $1.96 or 3.43%; Brent July contract closed at $62.15/barrel, up $1.92 or 3.19%; SC2506 closed at 465.9 yuan/barrel, up 8.1 yuan or 1.77%. Kazakhstan and Iraq have over - produced. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.49 million barrels, and the EIA predicts that the US crude oil daily output in 2025 will be 13.42 million barrels, about 100,000 barrels less than last month's forecast [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, FU2507 closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, up 1.13%; LU2506 closed at 3,405 yuan/ton, up 1.73%. The reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market, and high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power generation demand [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, BU2506 closed at 3,424 yuan/ton, up 2.42%. With the repair of processing profits, supply is expected to increase. The expected acceleration of special bond issuance and the start of terminal projects will support demand [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,362 yuan/ton, down 1.62%; EG2509 closed at 4,130 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. The sales of polyester yarns in Zhejiang and Jiangsu are weak, and some devices are under maintenance [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2509 closed at 14,815 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton; NR closed at 12,555 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Thailand proposes to reduce import tariffs, and the rubber tapping season is postponed, but the terminal demand is weak [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,420 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will remain relatively stable in May [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of PP in East China was 7,150 - 7,300 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to decline due to refinery maintenance, but the demand will enter the off - season [6]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the price in the East - China PVC market decreased. The real - estate construction off - season will reduce the demand for PVC downstream products, and the inventory pressure will increase [6][7]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on May 6, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with April 30, 2025 [8]. Market News - The US API data shows that in the week of May 2, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.49 million barrels, and the analysts expected a decrease of 2.5 million barrels [13]. - On May 6, the EU announced a plan to terminate the import of Russian energy by 2027 [13]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [27][29][33] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [40][42][46] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [61][62][65] - **Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profits of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [68][70][71] Team Member Introduction - The research team includes Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in the field of energy and chemical research [73][74][75]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-06 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡偏弱 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2507 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 弱势运行 | 增产超预期，原油低开弱势运行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 参考观点：弱势运行 核心逻辑：欧佩克+产油国 6 月进一步加快增产节奏，同时美国页岩油产量也稳步增长，这令油市供 应过剩预期加重。而处在 5 月份，北半球原油需求仍维持淡季模式，6 ...

那咱们中长线投资者该怎么看这事？记住三个字：看趋势，别慌短期。首先，原油这东西从来都是"政治+供需"的双重博弈。欧佩克+这次增产，短期肯 定打压油价，但长期得看两件事：一是全球经济复苏的势头能不能撑住需求，二是美国页岩油、新能源替代这些变量会不会捣乱。举个例子，要是下半 年美国通胀反弹，美联储加息重启，那原油需求可能进一步萎缩，油价说不定还得往下探；但要是全球制造业回暖，新能源车渗透率增速放缓，那供应 过剩的压力可能只是暂时的。 另外，给大家提个醒：最近别盲目跟风做空或者抄底。欧佩克+内部矛盾虽然激化，但沙特的底线很清楚——油价不能跌破成本线太多（据说沙特原油生 产成本不到20美元/桶，但财政平衡需要油价在80美元左右）。所以这次大跌更像是"内部整顿"的短期震荡，而不是趋势性反转。咱们中长线布局，不妨 多关注两个信号：一是欧佩克+下次会议的产量政策有没有调整，二是美国原油库存和页岩油钻井数的变化。如果库存持续累库，页岩油增产，那可能真 得小心"熊途漫漫"；要是库存开始去化，那说不定是个分批建仓的机会。 最后总结一下：原油这波大跌，本质上是欧佩克+"家法伺候"不听话的成员国，短期搅乱了市场预期，但中长线怎么走， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term: The overall supply and demand of crude oil are stable. There are no definite signs of a recession in the US. Crude oil is undervalued and there is room for valuation repair. The main drivers are Sino - US tariff games and the progress of US - Iran negotiations. Oil prices should be viewed with a topping - out strategy, and attention should be paid to the pressure around $68 per barrel for Brent [4][73]. - Medium - term: The impact of the "tariff war" on the economy will gradually materialize. It is necessary to verify whether a US recession occurs based on actual economic data. OPEC may continue to "push down prices" on the supply side, and oil prices still face significant pressure in the medium - to - long term. Oil prices are expected to be volatile at the end of April and beginning of May [4][73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In early April, due to the US imposing tariffs on China and OPEC +'s unexpected decision to increase production in May, oil prices tumbled. Brent's main contract fell below $60 per barrel. As the macro - sentiment eased, oil prices rebounded. By the end of the month, oil prices first rose and then fell due to tariff policy fluctuations and internal disagreements within OPEC +, with Brent's main contract (July) falling back to around $65 per barrel [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Short - term: The overall supply and demand are stable, the US shows no definite signs of recession, and there is room for crude oil valuation repair. The main drivers are Sino - US tariff games, US - Iran negotiation progress, and OPEC production policies. - Medium - term: It is necessary to verify the US recession based on economic data. OPEC may continue to "push down prices" on the supply side, and oil prices face pressure. At the end of April and beginning of May, oil prices are expected to be volatile [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuations, bearish in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. The cracking spread of domestic gasoline is stable, while that of diesel is weak. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In April, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply due to macro and geopolitical factors. At the beginning of the month, global trade wars caused a sharp decline in crude oil and asphalt prices. In the middle of the month, prices rebounded due to sanctions on Iran and OPEC +'s compensation plans. In the late month, prices fluctuated due to trade wars and OPEC + internal disagreements. The discount of diluted asphalt remained at - $5.5 per barrel, and the basis and valuations increased [8]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - OPEC: In March, OPEC 12 countries' production decreased by 78,000 barrels per day. OPEC + (excluding exempted countries) slightly exceeded the production target. In early April, OPEC + decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May. In mid - April, OPEC + submitted a compensation plan. If implemented, supply pressure will be concentrated after the fourth quarter [13]. - US: Shale oil production costs are rising, and the growth rate of production has been revised down. In the third week of April, production was flat at 13.458 million barrels per day [16][17]. - Russia: In April, oil exports were stable. Falling oil prices led to a decline in export revenue but also increased the motivation to increase production. Future OPEC + policies need to be monitored [24][27]. - Iran: US sanctions have led to a decrease in exports and an increase in floating storage. US - Iran negotiations are ongoing, and the outcome is uncertain [29]. - Venezuela: US sanctions will lead to a decline in production and exports, but exports to China are expected to increase. IEA predicts a quarterly decline in production [32]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - US: Oil product consumption is stable. Gasoline demand recovered after the Easter holiday, diesel demand stabilized in April, and jet fuel demand reached a five - year high [35]. - China: Since April, the operation rate of state - owned refineries has declined, while that of independent refineries has increased. The overall crude oil processing volume is at the average level of the past three years [39][40]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation - Inventory: Global crude oil inventory decreased in December 2024 and January 2025, then increased in February and March. In early April, it accelerated the increase and approached the five - year average. In late April, China's inventory decreased, driving down the global total [57]. - Profit: Overseas refining margins were stable, while domestic refining margins were first pushed up by falling oil prices and then pressured during the rebound [59]. - Balance: IEA predicts that in 2025, supply will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day, demand growth will be 730,000 barrels per day, and inventory will accumulate by 700,000 barrels per day. In 2026, supply will increase by 960,000 barrels per day, demand growth will be 690,000 barrels per day, and inventory will accumulate by 970,000 barrels per day [61]. - Cost: In a moderately oversupplied situation, the market will test the marginal production cost line. Key areas to watch are Latin American deep - water oilfields and US shale oil (Bakken Basin) [66]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Future Outlook - Short - term: Supply and demand are stable, there is room for valuation repair, and the main drivers are Sino - US tariff games and US - Iran negotiation progress. Attention should be paid to the pressure around $68 per barrel for Brent. - Medium - term: The impact of the "tariff war" will gradually appear. It is necessary to verify the US recession based on economic data, and oil prices face pressure [73]. 3.3.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuations, bearish in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's "reciprocal tariff" executive order has a significant impact on international crude oil futures, increasing short - term fluctuations of commodities like crude oil and intensifying concerns about global economic slowdown, which weakens crude oil demand expectations. The uncertainty of tariff policies boosts investors' risk - aversion sentiment and suppresses risk assets such as crude oil [6]. - China's additional 34% tariff on US imports starting from April 10, 2025, directly increases the import cost of US crude oil, raises domestic crude oil prices and production costs of energy - chemical products. It may also affect the market supply - demand pattern and downstream products [6]. - Short - term escalation of the Sino - US trade tariff war may lead to intensified price fluctuations of crude oil futures and downstream energy - chemical commodity futures. It is advisable to avoid systematic risks [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Price Slightly Rises and Basis Discount Slightly Narrows - As of the week ending April 3, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in Shengli Oilfield area is $70.59 per barrel (equivalent to RMB 507.5 per barrel), with a week - on - week increase of RMB 0.6 per barrel. The domestic crude oil futures main contract 2505 is reported at RMB 542.0 per barrel, and the basis is RMB 34.5 per barrel, with the discount slightly narrowing [10]. 3.1.2 Crude Oil Stops Rising and Turns Down under the Influence of Negative Factors - On April 2, 2025, Trump signed two executive orders on "reciprocal tariffs". The 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners took effect on the early morning of April 5, 2025, and additional tariffs on 60 countries with the highest trade deficits with the US will take effect on the early morning of April 9, 2025. The scale of these tariffs exceeded market expectations. - On the night session of Wednesday this week, international crude oil futures prices stopped rising and turned down. The US WTI crude oil futures price dropped 2.47% to $69.94 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil futures price dropped 2.24% to $73.27 per barrel. On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures 2505 contract closed 2.24% lower at RMB 542.0 per barrel [6][13][14]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Structure Weakens and the Production Increase Cycle Arrives 3.2.1 OPEC+ Production - Cut Policy Tends to End and the Expectation of Loose Supply Revives - OPEC+ repeatedly postponed its production - increase plan due to concerns about weak global crude oil demand and increasing supply from non - OPEC countries. As of the end of 2024, OPEC+ had a cumulative production cut of about 5.7% of global crude oil supply (about 5.85 million barrels per day). - OPEC+ decided at the December 5, 2024 meeting to gradually and flexibly cancel the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by 8 member countries from April 1, 2025, to the end of 2026. On March 3, 2025, 8 countries including Saudi Arabia decided to start the production - increase plan from April 1, 2025, and adjust the pace flexibly. The IEA predicted that the global crude oil supply surplus would increase from 950,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 if OPEC+ increased production [22][23]. 3.2.2 Non - OPEC Oil - Producing Countries' Production Capacity Remains at a High Level - The US, as the leading non - OPEC oil - producing country, has maintained high - level crude oil production. As of the week ending February 14, 2025, the number of active oil - drilling platforms in the US was 481, with a week - on - week increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 16. The daily average crude oil production was 13.497 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.97 million barrels per day. The EIA estimated that the US crude oil production would increase by 280,000 barrels per day in 2025 [27]. 3.2.3 The Northern Hemisphere's Crude Oil Demand Enters a Seasonal Off - Peak - US crude oil demand has obvious seasonal changes. From December to February, it is the peak season for heating oil consumption, and refinery operating rates rise. In March 2025, the off - peak season arrived, refinery operating rates declined, and inventory - building pressure emerged. - Global crude oil demand growth is limited in 2025. Developed economies' demand is affected by slow economic recovery, energy transformation, strong US dollar, and Trump's tariff policy. China's demand expansion is also limited due to energy transformation and high penetration of new - energy vehicles [48][49]. 3.2.4 US Crude Oil Inventory Increases Significantly and Refinery Operating Rate Drops Slightly - As of the week ending March 28, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) reached 439.792 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 6.165 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 11.625 million barrels. Cushing, Oklahoma's crude oil inventory increased by 2.373 million barrels week - on - week. The strategic petroleum reserve increased by 0.285 million barrels month - on - month. The refinery operating rate was 86.0%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 percentage point [54]. 3.2.5 China's Crude Oil Import and Production Decline Slightly in January - February 2025 - In January - February 2025, China's industrial crude oil processing volume increased by 2.1% year - on - year, but crude oil production decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 5.0% year - on - year. The improvement of the domestic crude oil supply - demand structure helps the domestic crude oil futures price to stabilize and rebound [57]. 3.3 Geopolitical Risks in the Middle East Are Prominent and There Are Big Disputes over the Cease - Fire in Russia - Ukraine - In mid - March 2025, geopolitical risks in the Middle East resurfaced. The US launched at least 47 air strikes on Yemen, and the Houthi rebels retaliated. If the Mandeb Strait is closed or unstable, it will increase the uncertainty of crude oil exports from the Middle East and bring a premium to international crude oil futures prices [65][66]. - On March 20, 2025, the US announced new sanctions on Iran. This is the fourth round of sanctions since Trump said he would re - impose "maximum pressure" on Iran in February. The sanctions may bring a risk premium of $3 - 5 per barrel [67]. - The US is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, but the conflict is intensifying. There are differences between Russia and Ukraine on the cease - fire conditions, and the negotiation progress is slow [68]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Increase Significantly Week - on - Week - Since March 2025, international crude oil futures prices have stabilized, and the market's long - buying power has recovered. As of March 25, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 180,558 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 13,735 contracts. The average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 250,215 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 55,511 contracts [82]. 3.5 Conclusion - Trump's "reciprocal tariff" executive order affects international crude oil futures, increasing short - term fluctuations and weakening demand expectations. China's additional tariff on US imports will increase costs and may affect the supply - demand pattern. Short - term price fluctuations of crude oil and downstream products may intensify, and it is necessary to avoid systematic risks. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, domestic crude oil futures may open at the daily limit down, and it is necessary to observe relevant boosting policies [84][87].