Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **oil market** and its dynamics, particularly focusing on the impact of geopolitical events and OPEC+ production plans on oil prices and supply-demand balance [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Geopolitical Events**: Geopolitical tensions, including sanctions on Russia, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Iran-Israel conflict, have caused short-term fluctuations in oil prices but have not altered the overall downward trend. Brent crude and WTI crude have both decreased by approximately 10% year-to-date, with current prices at $66.63 and $64.97 per barrel, respectively [1][3]. - **OPEC+ Production Plans**: OPEC+ is set to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, which is four times the increase planned in March. Cumulatively, OPEC+ has increased its production quota by 1.918 million barrels per day this year, intensifying supply pressure in the oil market [1][5]. - **Global Oil Demand Forecast**: The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a growth in global oil demand of 720,000 barrels per day this year, with a downward revision of 300,000 barrels per day from earlier estimates. This is attributed to sluggish economic growth and the rise of clean energy alternatives [1][7]. - **Supply-Demand Imbalance**: The IEA forecasts an increase in oil supply of 1.8 million barrels per day this year, with OPEC+ countries expected to contribute 400,000 barrels per day. The overall market is characterized by an oversupply, exerting downward pressure on oil prices [1][6][7]. Additional Important Content - **Impact of U.S. Shale Producers**: U.S. shale oil producers are reducing capital expenditures and drilling plans due to WTI prices being below the breakeven point of $66 per barrel. This reduction may help alleviate the global oversupply situation [2][6]. - **Response of Major State-Owned Oil Companies**: The three major state-owned oil companies (referred to as "Three Barrels of Oil") are increasing capital expenditures to drive production growth and technological advancements, with an average annual growth rate of 6.6% in capital expenditures planned for 2025. Their production growth rates are projected at 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% respectively [2][8]. - **Geopolitical Influence on Market Trends**: The geopolitical landscape, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, continues to influence market expectations and oil price volatility. The potential for escalation in these conflicts could lead to short-term price increases [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent and WTI may challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel this year [5][6]. - In the first half of the third quarter, the market is bullish, mainly due to OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations, a decline in U.S. shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center. In the long - term, the market is bearish because of the large - scale production increase from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., leading to a high probability of inventory accumulation [6]. - The strategy is to buy on dips and conduct band trading in the short - term, and to short on rallies in the long - term. Close out and take profits on long - short spreads, and avoid reverse spreads [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - The long - end U.S. Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds [11]. - Overseas inflation rises, and the service industry PMI rebounds [17]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [19]. 2. Supply - OPEC+ production increase slightly exceeds expectations. For example, Iraq's Basrah crude export to Europe weakens, the UAE reduces Murban crude allocation, Saudi may use more heavy crude for domestic power generation, and Russia's ESPO Blend export decreases in June but is expected to rebound in July [7]. - The Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows that the business activity index turns negative. U.S. oil and gas executives are pessimistic about production prospects due to Trump's tariff policies and trade wars. Although U.S. crude production increased by 1.8 million barrels per day in April, WTI export profitability has deteriorated [8]. - Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran have different supply situations. Venezuela's production is expected to decline, and Iran's export is affected by sanctions, but there are signs of possible sanction relief [8]. - The IEA predicts a global crude oil supply surplus in the second half of 2025, and global visible inventories have been accumulating in the past three months [8]. 3. Demand - The seasonal peak demand continues. In Asia, China's crude oil processing volume increases, and some countries like Japan, South Korea, and India increase their U.S. crude oil imports. In Europe, refineries are cautious due to conflicts, and freight increases have raised costs [9]. 4. Inventory - U.S. commercial inventory rebounds, while Cushing inventory declines and is significantly lower than the historical average. Refining margins are strongly volatile, European crude inventory rebounds while diesel and gasoline inventories decline, and domestic refined oil margins are recovering [61][70][75]. 5. Price and Spread - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread declines, SC underperforms foreign markets with a declining monthly spread, and the net long position increases [79][80][83].

Group 1 - Barclays has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 by $6 to $72 per barrel and for 2026 by $10 to $70 per barrel, reflecting a reassessment of global oil demand growth prospects amid tightening inventories and weak non-OPEC supply [1] - Despite recent easing of geopolitical risks, oil price trends are primarily supported by better-than-expected supply-demand fundamentals, with a focus shifting back to core supply-demand balance logic as oil inventories continue to decline [8] - OPEC+ countries have accelerated the pace of exiting production cuts, but actual output growth lags behind targets, indicating limited rebound potential in production due to reduction pressures faced by some member countries [8] Group 2 - Barclays has significantly raised its global oil demand growth forecast for this year by an additional 260,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by stronger-than-expected consumption in developed economies, particularly in the U.S. [8] - The mismatch between supply and demand is expected to continue supporting oil prices in the coming quarters, with Brent crude likely to maintain a trading range above $70 per barrel [8] - The stability and recovery of energy prices will positively impact the currencies of oil-producing countries, suggesting investors should pay attention to currencies closely linked to energy, such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-04原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2508： 1.基本面：伊朗外交部长表示，尽管该国宣布暂停与联合国核监督机构的合作，但将继续与该机构接触； 美国6月非农就业数据超预期，失业率降至4.1%，经季节性因素调整后，6月非农就业人数增加14.7万人， 高于预期的11万人；媒体援引不愿透露姓名的代表称，OPEC+已开始讨论在8月份再增加每日41.1万桶的产 量，此举在该组织本周末的视频会议前已提上议程；中性 2.基差：7月3日，阿曼原油现货价为69.84美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.42美元/桶，基差13.66元 /桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存： ...

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market has experienced a significant decline in risk premium due to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly following the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, which has reduced concerns over supply disruptions [1][3]. Supply Side Changes - The global crude oil supply landscape is undergoing subtle adjustments, with OPEC+ members showing differing compliance with production cuts, particularly Iraq and Kazakhstan exceeding their quotas, undermining the overall effectiveness of the reduction policy [4]. - The continuous growth of U.S. shale oil production, driven by technological advancements and cost control, is adding new variables to global supply, while non-OPEC oil-producing countries are also expanding their capacities, contributing to upward pressure on supply [4]. - OPEC+ faces challenges not only from external competition but also from increasing internal coordination difficulties, as core members like Saudi Arabia must balance price stability with market share [4]. Demand Outlook - Global economic slowdown is exerting substantial pressure on crude oil demand, with weak manufacturing activity and sluggish transportation fuel consumption in major economies [5]. - China's economic restructuring and energy transition are suppressing traditional oil demand, while the rapid development of renewable energy technologies is altering long-term energy consumption patterns, reducing reliance on fossil fuels [5]. - Seasonal factors are also impacting current demand, as the end of the summer driving season leads to a decline in gasoline consumption, compounded by cyclical adjustments in industrial production [5].

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Iran and Israel both announced the end of the war, causing oil prices to continue falling [6] - In the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically achieved the planned production increase. Trump has expressed concerns about high oil prices, so there is a possibility that OPEC+ will further increase production [6] - In the June report, due to the suspension of the China-US tariff conflict, the expectation for crude oil demand has improved. However, as there is also an expected increase in supply from countries like Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment to the balance sheet is limited, and the market will maintain a stockpiling pattern in the second half of the year [6] - Short-term geopolitical situations may still change, and oil prices will remain highly volatile. Supported by the peak demand season, oil prices will be relatively strong in the third quarter. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads in operations. In the fourth quarter, the cost line of shale oil may be tested again [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $67.74, closing at $65.01, with a high of $67.83, a low of $64.00, a decline of 5.11%, and a trading volume of 512,300 lots. Brent's opening price was $68.12, closing at $66.84, with a high of $69.37, a low of $65.93, a decline of 5.22%, and a trading volume of 645,800 lots. SC's opening price was 513 yuan/barrel, closing at 508.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 516.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 500.2 yuan/barrel, a decline of 8.13%, and a trading volume of 304,000 lots [6][8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider reverse spreads in the third quarter and expect the fourth quarter to test the shale oil cost line [6] 2. Industry News - Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May [8] - Trump stated that if Iran rebuilds its nuclear facilities, the US will take action again and that the cease - fire between Iran and Israel is progressing smoothly [8] - China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that China will take reasonable energy security measures based on its national interests [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][11][18][23]

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices continued to decline due to Iran's missile attack on US bases in Qatar and Iraq and the expected cease - fire. In the short - term, geopolitical situations may change, and oil prices will remain highly volatile. The market will be in a state of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $78/barrel, closing at $67.23/barrel, with a high of $78.4/barrel, a low of $66.6/barrel, a decline of 8.95%, and a trading volume of 70.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $78.9/barrel, closing at $69.73/barrel, with a high of $79.4/barrel, a low of $98.64/barrel, a decline of 7.62%, and a trading volume of 78.92 million lots. SC's opening price was 566.9 yuan/barrel, closing at 518.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 572.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 518.6 yuan/barrel, a decline of 9%, and a trading volume of 52.65 million lots [6] - **Supply - side**: In the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically completed the planned production increase. Considering Trump's concerns about high oil prices, OPEC+ may further increase production [7] - **Demand - side**: In the June report, due to the suspension of the Sino - US tariff conflict, the crude oil demand outlook improved. However, due to the expected supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment of the balance sheet was limited, and the market will accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short - term, oil prices will be highly volatile. Consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [7] 2. Industry News - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to Trump's cease - fire plan with Iran. The Israeli Defense Forces detected missiles launched from Iran, and the defense system was activated. The Israeli Defense Minister instructed the military to strongly respond to Iran's cease - fire violations and conduct high - intensity strikes on targets in Tehran's core areas [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, various spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][12][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The repeated escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the breakdown of the Iran nuclear negotiations, and the resulting conflicts in the Middle East support the strengthening of oil prices. The supply side is affected by geopolitical factors, with Iran's 3 million barrels per day of crude oil supply potentially threatened, and the market is worried about the obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, involving 16 million barrels per day of crude oil supply. Although eight OPEC+ producing countries plan to increase production, the actual production in April decreased month - on - month, indicating uncertainty in the production increase process. On the demand side, the US enters the driving season, and crude oil demand is expected to increase seasonally. Although China's crude oil processing demand declined in May, demand is expected to be further boosted with the suspension of tariffs and the expectation of pre - export rush. The report suggests holding long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 11.5 million barrels last week, the largest decline since the week of June 28, 2024, and the inventory level was the lowest since January. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 200,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories increased. US crude oil net imports decreased by 1.75 million barrels per day, and exports increased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 4.4 million barrels per day [4][20]. - **Supply**: Affected by geopolitical factors, Iran's 3 million barrels per day of crude oil supply may be threatened, and the market is worried about the obstruction of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, involving 16 million barrels per day of crude oil supply. The US crude oil production remained at 13.4 million barrels per day last week. Eight OPEC+ countries plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, and the cumulative production increase from April to July is expected to be 1.371 million barrels per day. However, the actual production in April decreased month - on - month, indicating uncertainty in the production increase process. There are also uncertainties in supply due to the Israel - Iran conflict, sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan crude oil, and the US shale oil production reaching its ceiling [4]. - **Demand**: The US refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 93.2%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 364,000 barrels per day. As the summer driving season arrives, gasoline demand will increase. In May, China's crude oil processing slowed down, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. Overall, the demand side is expected to increase steadily, with strong demand in the US and stable demand in China [4]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions [4] 3.2. Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides detailed data on global crude oil production, consumption, and inventory changes from January 2024 to December 2025, including production and consumption in OPEC and non - OPEC countries, as well as OECD and non - OECD countries [6]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: The report shows the industrial chain structure of crude oil, including the processing of crude oil through the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit, and then further processing into various products such as naphtha, ethylene, propylene, etc. [9] 3.3. Futures - Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the futures - spot market, including domestic and foreign price spreads, monthly spreads, and freight indices, etc., but no specific analysis of these data is provided [11][15][16] 3.4. Inventory - **US Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased slightly. The inventory level of Cushing decreased [4][20]. - **China Inventory**: In May, China's inventory increment decreased due to a decline in imported crude oil and a month - on - month decrease in crude oil processing demand. The INE crude oil warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Energy Exchange have recently remained at a low level, indicating a low level of deliverable warehouse receipts [25][28] 3.5. Supply Side - **OPEC Production**: OPEC's monthly report shows that the average daily crude oil production of OPEC+ in May was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels compared to April. Eight OPEC+ countries plan to increase production, but there is uncertainty in the production increase process [32][33]. - **US Production**: The US crude oil production remained at 13.4 million barrels per day last week. The US shale oil production has reached its ceiling, and the growth space is limited due to the reduction of capital expenditure by oil companies in the early stage. The US oil rig count, a leading indicator of future production, has remained at a stable level, indicating a low probability of future production increase [37][39]. 3.6. Demand Side - **China Demand**: In May, China's crude oil processing slowed down, but overall, the travel demand is strong, and it is expected to drive the recovery of crude oil consumption. China's crude oil imports in May were 46.6 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to May increased slightly year - on - year. The export of refined oil products in May was 4.409 million tons, a year - on - year decline [47][52][55]. - **US Demand**: The US refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 93.2%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased. As the summer driving season arrives, gasoline demand is expected to increase, and the demand is slightly better than the same period last year [59][62].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 19 日 热点品种 商品 力 涨 幅与增仓 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加 拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协 议谈判陷入僵局，会谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和 伊朗近期已经将袭击目标从核设施及军事设施扩大至能源设施。另外，近期以色 列和伊朗间的风险有所外溢，中东地缘风险加剧升温，美国石油钻井数量下降幅 度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原油供给压力缓解。需求端，美国非农数据、 CPI 数据好于预期，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议上中美原则上达成协议框架，市 场风险偏好回升，美国进入传统出行旺季， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 4.盘面：20日均线偏上，价格在均线上方；偏多 2025-06-13原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2507： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普周四表示，美国仍然致力于通过外交手段解决伊朗核问题，但他补充说，伊朗 必须首先放弃发展核武器的希望；据外媒报道，以色列空军当地时间周四对伊朗进行了袭击。目前尚不清 楚袭击目标，但报道称德黑兰发生了爆炸；特朗普警告说，他可能很快会提高汽车关税，认为这可能会促 使汽车制造商加快在美国的投资；偏多 2.基差：6月12日，阿曼原油现货价为68.86美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为68.69美元/桶，基21.78元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 ...