2月5日；上交易日周三（2月4日）：国际黄金高开后，最终震荡十字收平，但仍处于中轨上方，后市仍 具走强前景，如收线在5100美元上方，多头动力则稳健加强，可跟进看涨新高。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4964.16美元/盎司，先行走强，于欧盘初录得日内高点5091.72美元，之后 多头动力减弱，陷入震荡，到美盘22点时段开始，空头开始发力，连续走低，于次日零点时段录得日内 低点4854.61美元，最后触底回升，收于4964.45美元，日振幅237.11美元，相对于周二收盘价4935.80美 元，收涨28.65美元，涨幅0.58%。 影响上，受到周二的买盘动力，而先行反弹走强触及日内高点，但由于地缘局势再反转，伊美核谈判将 恢复，美国1月标普全球服务业PMI终值及ISM非制造业PMI好于预期等，金价遇阻回落触及日内低点， 不过，仍受到支撑买盘，以及ADP就业人数不及预期，显示美国劳动力市场继续放缓，维持着一定的多 头力量，而震荡收涨。 展望今日周四（2月5日）：国际黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘回升之力，先行走强，看涨买盘动力依然很强， 其地缘局势的反反复复也令市场反应逐渐减弱，并也产生一定的不确定性，而间接利好金价。 另 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PTA: The commodity market has declined significantly. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, there is still an oil price risk. The downstream PTA industry remains strong, with China's PTA output in January expected to hit a record high and no production cut plan during the Spring Festival. With no new PTA capacity throughout the year, existing plants will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX. The PX supply is still tight. The global effective capacity release is limited. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the polyester factory's production cuts have a limited negative impact on PTA [2] - Ethylene glycol: After the long - term slump of overseas ethylene glycol, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines to produce polyethylene in mid - February, with the duration of the conversion undetermined. This has led to a significant increase in speculative market demand, and the supply contraction has opened up room for price increases [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price increased from 449.4 yuan/barrel on February 3, 2026, to 462.4 yuan/barrel on February 4, 2026, a rise of 13 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA - SC decreased from 1884.2 yuan/ton to 1857.7 yuan/ton, a drop of 26.47 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.5769 to 1.5528, a decrease of 0.0241; CFR China PX increased from 897 to 902, a rise of 5; PX - naphtha spread increased from 316 to 318, a rise of 3 [2] - PTA main contract futures price increased from 5150 yuan/ton to 5218 yuan/ton, a rise of 68 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 5080 yuan/ton to 5140 yuan/ton, a rise of 60 yuan/ton; spot processing fee increased from 371.2 yuan/ton to 405 yuan/ton, a rise of 33.8 yuan/ton; on - disk processing fee increased from 436.2 yuan/ton to 483 yuan/ton, a rise of 46.8 yuan/ton; main contract basis increased from - 68 to - 62, a rise of 6; PTA warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 103,568 [2] - MEG main contract futures price increased from 3767 yuan/ton to 3788 yuan/ton, a rise of 21 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from - 179.84 yuan/ton to - 172.03 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.8 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price increased from 3670 yuan/ton to 3675 yuan/ton, a rise of 5 yuan/ton; main contract basis increased from - 122 to - 103, a rise of 19 [2] - PX operating rate remained unchanged at 85.92%; PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 75.63%; MEG operating rate decreased from 62.48% to 61.67%, a drop of 0.81%; polyester load decreased from 79.76% to 79.24%, a drop of 0.52% [2] - POY150D/48F decreased from 7095 yuan/ton to 7020 yuan/ton, a drop of 75 yuan/ton; POY cash flow decreased from 272 yuan/ton to 144 yuan/ton, a drop of 128 yuan/ton; FDY150D/96F decreased from 7295 yuan/ton to 7255 yuan/ton, a drop of 40 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow decreased from - 28 yuan/ton to - 121 yuan/ton, a drop of 93 yuan/ton; DTY150D/48F decreased from 8210 yuan/ton to 8155 yuan/ton, a drop of 55 yuan/ton; DTY cash flow decreased from 187 yuan/ton to 79 yuan/ton, a drop of 108 yuan/ton; filament sales increased from 24% to 30%, a rise of 6% [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple decreased from 6555 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a drop of 6617 yuan/ton; polyester staple cash flow decreased from 82 yuan/ton to - 6588 yuan/ton, a drop of 6670 yuan/ton; staple fiber sales decreased from 65% to 64%, a drop of 1% [2] - Semi - bright chip increased from 5860 yuan/ton to 5910 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton; chip cash flow decreased from - 63 yuan/ton to - 66 yuan/ton, a drop of 3 yuan/ton; chip sales increased from 78% to 105%, a rise of 27% [2] Device Maintenance - A 3.6 million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th. A 1.25 million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in mid - March [2]

Oil Market - Oil prices saw a significant increase, with WTI March contract closing at $65.14 per barrel, up $1.93 (3.05%) [2][14] - Brent April contract closed at $69.46 per barrel, up $2.13 (3.16%) [2][14] - EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventory by 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million barrels, the lowest level since November 2024 [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 rose by 3.98% to 2797 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 increased by 3.39% to 3268 yuan/ton [3][17] - China's refining capacity utilization rate for reduced pressure was 68.05%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2603 increased by 1.69% to 3361 yuan/ton [5][18] - Social inventory rate for asphalt rose to 25.43%, up 0.64% week-on-week [5][18] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 rose by 205 yuan/ton to 16385 yuan/ton [6][19] - Natural rubber social inventory in China increased by 0.9 million tons to 128.1 million tons, a 0.7% increase [6][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5218 yuan/ton, up 1.32%, while EG2605 closed at 3788 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [7][20] - PX futures closed at 7296 yuan/ton, up 1.25% [7][20] Methanol - Domestic methanol prices showed a mixed trend, with Taicang spot price at 2238 yuan/ton and Inner Mongolia at 1797.5 yuan/ton [8][21] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly in February, while demand may decline due to MTO unit repairs [8][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China polypropylene (PP) ranged from 6550 to 6750 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9][22] - The market is expected to see an increase in inventory as the holiday approaches [9][22] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed a strong adjustment, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4820 to 4900 yuan/ton [10][23] - The market is facing weak demand from the real estate sector, which may limit support for PVC downstream products [10][23] Urea - Urea futures closed at 1787 yuan/ton, up 0.56% day-on-day, with stable prices in the spot market [11][24] - Daily production of urea was reported at 21.03 million tons, with a slight increase expected due to the resumption of gas-based production [11][24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures closed at 1229 yuan/ton, up 2.08%, with stable prices in the spot market [12][26] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.37%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points [12][26] Glass - Glass futures closed at 1109 yuan/ton, up 3.36%, with stable prices in the spot market [13][27] - Concerns about supply fluctuations are present as multiple production lines are planned for resumption [13][27]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices showed volatility with a closing price of $4964.45 per ounce, indicating a potential for upward movement if it remains above $5100, suggesting a strong bullish momentum [1][3]. Market Performance - Gold opened at $4964.16, reached a high of $5091.72, and then fell to a low of $4854.61 before closing at $4964.45, with a daily fluctuation of $237.11 [1]. - The price increased by $28.65, or 0.58%, compared to the previous day's closing price of $4935.80 [1]. Influencing Factors - The rebound in gold prices was initially supported by buying momentum from the previous day, but geopolitical tensions and better-than-expected U.S. economic data led to a pullback [3][5]. - The ADP employment data indicated a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, which maintained some bullish support for gold prices [3]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that upcoming unemployment claims data will likely favor gold prices, maintaining a bullish outlook [5]. - The partial government shutdown in the U.S. has delayed the release of non-farm payroll data, which is expected to influence market expectations positively for gold [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices have found support after a dip, suggesting the potential for a new bull market [6]. - Weekly analysis shows a pattern that may indicate a bottoming out, with a higher probability of maintaining high-level fluctuations rather than a significant downturn [7]. - Daily charts indicate that gold prices are above key moving averages, with bullish sentiment prevailing [8]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4940, $4890, and $4760, while resistance levels are at $5120 and $5220 [9].

燃料油日报 | 2026-02-04 地缘局势边际缓和，关注美伊谈判进展 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌3.81%，报2701元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌2.28%，报3168 元/吨。 由于伊朗与美国计划在2月6日开展谈判，地缘局势边际缓和，本周原油价格大幅回调，带动燃料油在内的能化品 价格下跌。其中，由于伊朗是高硫燃料油主要生产国，FU对地缘反应的弹性要大于LU。需要注意的是，在伊朗与 美国谈判出相对明确的结果或信号前，市场可能受到消息面的反复扰动，叠加春节假期临近，需要保持谨慎。 站在基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油呈现"东强西弱"格局，近期亚太地区现货边际收紧，新加坡库存连续下滑， 国内注册仓单量减少，排除宏观与地缘层面的扰动外，自身市场结构短期存在支撑。低硫燃料油方面，整体市场 矛盾有限，近期科威特与尼日利亚出口回升，但RFCC装置检修量下滑对低硫油组分完成了一定消化。 策略 高硫方面：中性，短期观望为主；关注美伊谈判进展 低硫方面：中性，短期观望为主；关注美伊谈判进展 跨品种：无 跨期：关注逢低多FU2603/2605价差机会（正套） 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral, suggesting short - term observation and attention to the progress of US - Iran negotiations; there are no ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options investments [3] 2. Core View of the Report - As the geopolitical situation between Iran and the US eases marginally, the crude oil price has significantly corrected this week, driving down the prices of energy and chemical products including LPG. However, before a relatively clear result or signal emerges from the US - Iran negotiations, the market may be repeatedly affected by news, and caution is needed as the Spring Festival holiday approaches. From the perspective of LPG's own fundamentals and market structure, overseas supply has tightened marginally recently, and Saudi Arabia's February CP has increased. But the PG market trend is relatively weak. High raw material costs have suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in negative demand feedback. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas has also exerted additional pressure on the PG market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has disturbed the market. If the impact of macro and geopolitical factors weakens, the market may enter a range - bound state again. In the medium term, the LPG balance sheet still anticipates oversupply, and the supply side has relatively high elasticity [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On February 3, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4520; Northeast market, 3790 - 4150; North China market, 4200 - 4530; East China market, 4120 - 4400; Yangtze River market, 4840 - 5130; Northwest market, 4300 - 4500; South China market, 4800 - 4900. In the first half of March 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 615 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 605 US dollars/ton, stable. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4713 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and that of butane was 4636 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 607 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 597 US dollars/ton, stable. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4652 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and that of butane was 4575 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly observe in the short term and pay attention to the progress of US - Iran negotiations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions and inventory data impact prices, with cold - induced production decline providing support, but investors are advised to participate with light positions due to variable geopolitical factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is abundant, demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival, and prices are affected by geopolitical and cost factors, with follow - up pressure [2] - **Asphalt**: In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival. Prices are affected by crude oil and raw material imports [2] - **Polyester**: Macro - environment cools, crude oil prices fall, and polyester raw materials are expected to fluctuate with costs, with a first - quarter inventory build - up expected [4] - **Rubber**: The macro - environment cools, and the rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - weakness situation, with prices expected to decline and fluctuate [4] - **Methanol**: Supply may decrease in February, demand from MTO devices may decline, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range at a low level [5] - **Polyolefins**: Supply may increase slightly, inventory will increase passively during the holiday, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 3 - month contract rose 1.07 dollars to 63.21 dollars/barrel (1.72% increase), Brent 4 - month contract rose 1.03 dollars to 67.33 dollars/barrel (1.55% increase), and SC2603 rose 8 yuan/barrel to 457.8 yuan/barrel (1.78% increase). Geopolitical tensions and API data on inventory changes are key factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2603 fell 3.81% to 22701 yuan/ton, LU2604 fell 2.28% to 3168 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, and demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan/ton. In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 1.14% to 5150 yuan/ton, EG2605 was flat at 3767 yuan/ton. A 500,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China restarted, and there are inventory build - up expectations in the first quarter [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2605 rose 200 yuan/ton to 16180 yuan/ton, NR rose 170 yuan/ton to 13095 yuan/ton, BR rose 285 yuan/ton to 13185 yuan/ton. The macro - environment cools, and supply exceeds demand [4] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2225 yuan/ton. Supply may decrease in February, and demand from MTO devices may decline [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, East China's PP prices were between 6550 - 6750 yuan/ton. Supply may increase slightly, and inventory will increase during the holiday [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, PVC market prices in East China were stable with a slight increase. Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 4, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes [7] 3.3 Market News - Trump said on February 2 that the US and India reached a trade deal, with India potentially stopping buying Russian oil and the US reducing tariffs on Indian goods. API data showed that last week, US crude and distillate inventories decreased sharply, while gasoline inventory increased significantly [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The section presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [11][13][15][17][19][22][24][26] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The section shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [28][31][35][36][38][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The section presents the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products [41][43][46][49][51][53][55] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The section shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products [57][59][61][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The section presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products [67][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and several analysts, along with their professional backgrounds and honors [72][73][74][75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, negatively impacting the crude oil market. The downstream polyester industry's operating load has room to decline, leading to accelerated PTA inventory accumulation and a drop in PTA prices. Despite the decline in the PX - naphtha spread, PX fundamentals remain resilient. The PTA industry in China is expected to maintain high production, providing strong support for PX demand. The reduction in production by polyester factories has a limited negative feedback effect on PTA [2]. - MEG: After a long - term slump in the overseas ethylene glycol market, a decrease in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. A production - line switch at a factory in Jiangsu has led to a contraction in supply, creating room for price increases [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price increased from 449.0 yuan/barrel on February 2, 2026, to 449.4 yuan/barrel on February 3, 2026, with a change of 0.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA: The PTA - SC spread increased by 55.09 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio rose by 0.0164. The PTA主力期价 increased by 58.0 yuan/ton, while the PTA现货 price decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton. The现货 processing fee decreased by 35.7 yuan/ton, and the盘面加工费 increased by 32.3 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG: The MEG主力期价 remained unchanged at 3767 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton, and the MEG内盘 price decreased by 52.0 yuan/ton [2]. - PX: CFR中国PX price increased by 6, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 21 [2]. - Polyester Products: POY150D/48F price decreased by 25.0, FDY150D/96F price decreased by 25.0, DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged. The long - filament sales rate increased from 18% to 24%. The 1.4D直纺涤短 price increased by 10. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 66% to 65%. The semi - light slice price remained unchanged. The slice sales rate increased from 54% to 78% [2]. 3.2 Industry Operating Rates - PX开工率 remained at 85.92% - PTA开工率 remained at 75.63% - MEG开工率 remained at 62.48% - Polyester负荷 remained at 79.76% [2] 3.3 Device Maintenance - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to stop for maintenance on the 15th. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China is expected to stop on the 16th and is tentatively planned to restart in early March [2].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 沥青： （杜冰沁，从业资格号：F3043760；交易咨询资格号：Z0015786） 周二，上期所沥青主力合约BU2603收跌1.72%，报3309元/吨。昨日BU受到油价影响继续下跌，跌幅有 所收窄。进入2月中上旬，北方地区多为下游备货为主，多数炼厂低产，库存水平低位，南方地区部分 套利需求尚可，进入春节期间，终端及交通运输停滞，整体炼厂库存水平呈上升趋势，同时社库的压力 也会进一步加大。近期沥青相对成本端原油波动较小，裂解价差有一定修复，基差方面，受到弱需求现 实的限制，各地区基差有明显走弱。从1-2月的燃料油进口来看，炼厂在积极寻找替代原料，但考虑到 经济性和沥青出率，不排除后续炼厂排产或有一定调整。近期BU受到成本端原油扰动较大，关注油价 波动和后续原料进口。 橡胶： （邸艺琳，从业资格号：F03107645；交易咨询资格号：Z0021445） 原油： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周二油价重心上移，其中WTI 3月合约收盘上涨1.07美元至63.21美元/桶，涨幅1.72%。布伦特4月合约收 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have shown a strong rebound, returning above the midline, indicating increased bullish momentum, although further movement above the 5-day moving average is needed to enhance bullish prospects [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4667.81 per ounce, reached a low of $4665.67, and then rebounded to a high of $4992.95 before closing at $4935.80, marking a daily range of $327.28 and a gain of $267.99, or 5.74% [3]. - The recent price increase is attributed to buying pressure following a previous low, geopolitical tensions ahead of US-Iran talks, and indications from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts [3][5]. Market Outlook - On February 4, gold opened with weakened bullish momentum due to resistance from short-term moving averages and profit-taking, alongside reduced safe-haven demand following a government funding bill signed by Trump [3]. - Despite these factors, gold remains above key support levels, suggesting that the market may either consolidate or continue to strengthen, with a lower probability of further declines [3][5]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold has returned above the 30-day and midline averages but faces resistance at the 10-day moving average, necessitating a breakthrough for a stronger bullish trend [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4850 and $4760, while resistance levels are at $5050 and $5160 [7]. - The monthly chart shows that despite a recent drop, gold has rebounded from a previously established upward trend support, indicating the potential for a new bull market [7]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming data to watch includes the US ADP employment figures, S&P Global Services PMI, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, with mixed market expectations [5]. - The recent factors contributing to price drops have subsided, leading to a more favorable outlook for gold prices, supported by indications from Federal Reserve officials about significant rate cut potential this year [5].