Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by tariffs, geopolitical situations, economic data, and interest rate expectations, with a general outlook remaining bullish after adjustments [1][6][7]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened the week at $3,363.64 per ounce, fluctuated throughout the week, reaching a high of $3,376.99 and a low of $3,309.90, ultimately closing at $3,350.90, reflecting a weekly decline of $6.86 or 0.2% [3][4]. Influencing Factors - The market sentiment was affected by comments from U.S. officials regarding tariff negotiations and interest rate policies, which reduced risk concerns and pressured gold prices [3][4][7]. - The dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and a decrease in consumer inflation expectations provided support for gold prices, indicating potential for upward movement despite short-term fluctuations [4][6]. Future Outlook - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September remains high, which could favor gold prices in the long term [7]. - The overall economic outlook suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive easing policies than currently anticipated, potentially leading to significant increases in gold prices in the coming years [7][8]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a potential risk of a downturn to $3,000 or $2,600, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the 5-month moving average [10]. - Short-term support levels are identified at $3,341 and $3,334, with resistance at $3,365 and $3,385 [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in US CPI data has led to a rebound in inflation, providing support for the gold market amid ongoing trade tariff policies from Trump [2] - The spot gold market experienced fluctuations after the CPI data release, with a low of $3320.22 per ounce and a closing price of $3324.65 per ounce [2] - Current trading in the Asian market is stable, with gold prices hovering around $3330.00 per ounce, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The spot gold market is currently in a consolidation phase, with a trading range identified between $3321.00 and $3332.00, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [3] - If the market breaks below $3321.00, a short position may be considered with target levels set at $3311.00 to $3301.00 per ounce [3] - Conversely, if the market breaks above $3332.00, a long position could be initiated with target levels aimed at $3342.00 to $3352.00 per ounce [3] Group 3 - The spot silver market is also in a consolidation phase, with a trading range identified between $37.560 and $37.850, allowing for a similar buy low and sell high strategy [5] - A break below $37.560 could prompt the establishment of short positions, targeting price levels of $37.100 to $36.800 per ounce [5] - If the market successfully breaks above $37.850, long positions may be pursued with target levels of $38.100 to $38.400 per ounce [5]

Group 1 - The international gold price has shown a recovery after hitting a low of $3282.56 per ounce, closing at $3357.76, with a weekly fluctuation of $86.16 and a gain of $23.21, or 0.7% [1][3] - The market is influenced by concerns over tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which have increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [7][8] - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is supporting gold demand, with indications that there may be three rate cuts next year [8][9] Group 2 - The dollar index has shown signs of recovery but has not exerted sustained pressure on gold prices, with the market reacting to new tariff agreements and geopolitical developments [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend unless this support is broken [11][12] - The overall market sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of further price increases in the coming months, despite potential short-term corrections [9][12]

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail prices of refined oil in China have increased for the third consecutive time, marking the sixth adjustment of the year, driven by fluctuations in international oil prices and seasonal demand [1][2]. Price Adjustments - As of July 1, 2025, the prices for gasoline and diesel will rise by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively [2]. - The price increase translates to an additional cost of 0.18 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.19 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.19 yuan for 0-octane diesel [3]. Market Dynamics - The domestic refined oil market has experienced a mixed trend, with prices initially rising due to strong international oil prices, followed by a slight decline, but ultimately closing higher [4]. - The third quarter is expected to be a peak consumption season for refined oil, with increased demand driven by summer travel [4]. Demand Insights - Gasoline demand remains stable, while diesel demand is weaker due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions affecting outdoor work [5]. - Analysts predict that gasoline prices will stabilize with slight fluctuations, while diesel prices may face downward pressure [4][7]. International Oil Market - International oil prices have recently declined from high levels, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and an increase in supply [8]. - OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, continuing a trend of increased output [8][9]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that OPEC+ will maintain a significant production increase in the coming months, which may exert downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - The overall sentiment in the oil market remains cautious, with expectations of continued fluctuations in international oil prices [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement, the market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was quickly squeezed out, the domestic crude oil declined, and methanol also corrected. In the future, the market will no longer focus on the escalation of the conflict, and methanol will gradually return to its own fundamentals. Currently, the domestic methanol supply - demand change is small and the driving force is weak. The possible future impact lies in imports. Although the conflict has affected Iran's methanol supply, the overall arrival volume in South America is stable, and the high operating rate of inland coal enterprises has made up for the loss of Middle - East device maintenance to some extent. Last week, the port generally accumulated inventory. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1] Summary According to the Directory 1. Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: MA01 in Taicang was 2413 yuan/ton (- 0.25%), in Guangdong was 2435 yuan/ton (- 1.22%); MA05 was 2325 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); MA09 was 2381 yuan/ton (- 0.50%) compared to June 27, 2025 [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, it was 2230 yuan/ton (- 1.33%); in Shaanxi, 2057.50 yuan/ton (- 0.36%); in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, 1947.50 yuan/ton (- 0.38%) [1] - **Basis**: Taicang spot - MA was 377 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Prices**: Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 430 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 495 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: In Hohhot, it was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter; in Chongqing, 3.30 yuan/cubic meter. Both remained unchanged [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol in Chongqing was 493.40 yuan/ton, unchanged; natural gas - to - methanol was - 460 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Downstream Profit**: Northwest MTO was 562 yuan/ton (+ 2.07%); East China MTO was - 1183.07 yuan/ton (+ 19.69%); acetic acid was 347 yuan/ton (+ 21.00%); MTBE and Yilangtan remained unchanged; formaldehyde was - 262.40 yuan/ton (- 3.96%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated narrowly, opened at 2389 yuan/ton, closed at 2381 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 863081 lots and a position of 759974 lots, showing a reduction in volume and position [1] - **Foreign**: 90% of the methanol plants in a Middle - East country are restarting. Attention should be paid to the later start - up and shipping and loading [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA oscillated in the range and closed at 2371 at night. Considering the current situation, the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]

经济导报记者｜刘勇 从需求端来看，目前美国夏季出行高峰仍在推进，传统旺季提振燃油需求，需求季节性增强。此外，美 国与欧洲及日本的关税新政谈判也在推进，进展相对积极，也释放积极信号，需求方面或有改善。 今年以来，国内油价已经历12轮调整，分别为"五涨五跌两搁浅"。本轮调价过后，2025年的调价格局将 变为"六涨五跌两搁浅"。 本次调价对于私家车主和物流企业来说成本将小幅增加。以油箱容量50升的普通私家车计算，此次调价 后，私家车加满一箱油将多花9元左右；按市区百公里耗油8升的车型，平均每行驶100公里燃油费用增 加1.44元左右。对满载50吨百公里油耗40升的大型物流运输车辆而言，平均每行驶100公里燃油费用多 花7.6元左右。 展望后市，在地缘局势缓和及OPEC+增产的背景下，国际油价存利空压力。整体来看，预计下一轮成 品油调价（窗口将在7月15日24时开启）下调的概率较大。 7月1日，国内成品油调价窗口如期打开。经济导报记者获悉，7月1日24时将上调汽柴油零售限价，其中 汽油每吨上调235元，柴油每吨上调225元。折合升价，92号汽油每升涨0.18元，95号汽油及0号柴油每 升涨0.19元。至此，国内成品油 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Investors are closely monitoring trade negotiations as the deadline for Trump's proposed "reciprocal tariffs" approaches, with indications that the negotiations may not be as severe as in April [2] - The proposed "Big and Beautiful" bill passed the House on May 22 and narrowly passed a procedural vote in the Senate on June 28, with modifications requiring another House vote; the CBO predicts a $4.5 trillion revenue reduction and a $3.3 trillion increase in the fiscal deficit by 2034 [2] - Technically, gold has been in a correction phase since April 22, with a potential rebound if it stabilizes above $3,300, targeting $3,360 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Despite a verbal ceasefire between Israel and Iran, tensions remain high, with Trump threatening further military action against Iran and Iran halting inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 80%, with a 92.5% chance of a rate cut in September, increasing market bets on future rate cuts, which could boost oil demand [5] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production, leading to potential oversupply in the oil market; if global economic conditions improve, it may bolster market confidence [5] - Technically, oil prices have shown a downward trend, with resistance at $67 and a potential drop to $60 if prices fall below $64 [5] Group 3: Nikkei 225 and Copper Market - The Nikkei 225 index has been on a strong upward trend, breaking the highest price since July 18, 2024, but caution is advised against chasing further gains [7] - Copper prices have been fluctuating since early April, with a potential shift in trend; support is noted at $4.88 and resistance at $5.06 [7]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 尽管降息预期增加，但是关税风险、地缘局势在上周减少，黄金价格大幅回调。， | | | | 中长期不确定性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【760-790】 | | | | 白银跟随黄金大幅调整。目前，金银比价目前回归正常区间，目前白银基本面 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 变化不大，盘面关注 8700 附近表现，考虑到白银的品种特性弹性较大，操作上 | | | | 做好仓位控制。【8600-8900】 | | | | 特朗普威胁提前任命新美联储主席，降息预期走高，美元指数走弱，铜围绕 8 万关 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 口震荡盘整，建议前期铜多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现，警惕铜高位回落风 | | | | 险，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，81000】 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪积极，秘鲁大型锌冶炼减产，锌延续反弹，震荡走强，关注上 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 方缺口压力位，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22200， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the rubber industry is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term logic of rubber has been falsified, and new driving factors need to be awaited. The overall price range is adjusted from the initial forecast of 15,000 - 19,000 yuan/ton to 12,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton. The upward trend may be driven by supply - side factors such as weather and policies, while the downward trend may be dragged by macro factors like tariff policies and global economic recession expectations [8][86] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Review of the performance of Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber - In the first half of 2025, the natural rubber market fluctuated sharply. In Q1, it remained in a high - level sideways pattern, and in Q2, prices dropped from the high level due to factors such as increased exports from overseas rubber - producing countries, a significant increase in domestic imports, and US reciprocal tariffs. In Q1, the RU index oscillated between 16,600 - 18,000 yuan/ton. In January, prices fluctuated, with raw material prices dropping significantly compared to Q4, and increasing domestic imports and seasonal inventory accumulation suppressing prices. In February, prices rose after the Spring Festival due to seasonal production cuts overseas. In March, the rumored state reserve purchase had limited impact on the market. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival in Q2, the "reciprocal tariff" in the US affected the market, and the increase in import data in March (18% month - on - month and 20.6% year - on - year) also influenced prices. The significant increase in exports from rubber - producing countries and domestic imports in the first half of the year falsified the previous long - term logic, and prices fell back to the level of the same period in 2024 [14][15] 1.2 Review of spreads and price differences - In the first half of the year, state reserve purchases and capital actions strongly disturbed the spreads of Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber. In mid - April, after the rumor of the state reserve purchasing 2024 full - latex warehouse receipts, the 9 - 5 and 1 - 9 spreads of Shanghai rubber narrowed rapidly. The 9 - 5 spread even reached a negative level, and the 1 - 9 spread dropped from over 1,000 yuan/ton to below 700 yuan/ton. Later, the 9 - 5 spread gradually recovered, but the 1 - 9 spread remained at a relatively low level at the end of June. For No. 20 rubber, in Q1, the spot was tight, and the spreads showed a backwardation structure. In Q2, although imports increased, capital actions led to the cancellation of warehouse receipts, and the spreads strengthened again. By the end of June, the spreads weakened but still showed a slight premium. In the third quarter, as production increased, the spreads may return to the previous premium pattern [19][23] 2. Macro - fundamentals 2.1 The Fed lowers economic expectations, raises inflation and unemployment expectations, and internal differences widen - The Fed has paused rate cuts for the fourth consecutive time, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% and the monthly balance - sheet reduction limit at $40 billion. Due to the uncertainty caused by tariffs, the Fed remains cautious. The June economic forecast solidifies the "stagflation" expectation, with economic growth being lowered and unemployment and inflation being raised. The Fed believes that tariffs will have a "one - time" impact on inflation. The internal differences in the Fed are mainly due to the uncertainty of US tariff negotiations and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East [24][27] 2.2 Geopolitical situation and tariff policies disrupt the global economy, increasing uncertainty - US tariff policies disrupt global trade, causing a 0.2% year - on - year decline in global merchandise trade volume in 2025, a 2.9 - percentage - point drop compared to before the tariff war. Multiple international institutions have lowered their global economic growth forecasts for 2025. The recent escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, pushing up oil prices. This has put central banks in a dilemma between fighting inflation and stabilizing growth [28][34] 3. Upstream and downstream of the industrial chain 3.1 Upstream supply and raw materials - The total planting area of ANRPC is at a high level with a slight downward trend. The new planting area has increased in some countries but cannot offset the reduction in the original planting area. The supply - side output price elasticity still exists. In 2024, global natural rubber production increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Emerging rubber - producing countries such as Côte d'Ivoire have seen rapid growth, partially offsetting concerns about the decline in traditional rubber - producing countries. The second half of the year is the peak production season for natural rubber, and the supply is expected to increase [35][47] 3.2 Imports and inventories - In the first half of 2025, domestic imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased significantly. In May, the total imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 607,000 tons, a 25.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 3.476 million tons, a 23.5% increase. As of June 15, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly. The absolute value of domestic inventory is still at a moderately high level. With the increase in new rubber supply in the second half of the year, imports are expected to rise, and the inventory reduction in the middle - stream may slow down before the third quarter [50][52] 3.3 Downstream demand - Tire production growth is slowing down. In May 2025, the output of Chinese tire casings decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production of both all - steel and semi - steel tires declined. The all - steel tire market was supported by policies and exports, but the replacement market was weak. The semi - steel tire market faced increasing production and sales pressure due to rising inventory and new production capacity coming online. In the automotive market, production and sales increased in the first five months of 2025, with the passenger car and new - energy vehicle markets performing well. The heavy - truck market showed a slight increase in sales, mainly due to the implementation of the old - for - new policy [57][68] 4. Cost - profit and spread analysis 4.1 Cost - profit analysis - The losses of Thai latex and No. 20 rubber production have been partially repaired. Since May, continuous rain in the Thai production area has affected tapping, leading to an increase in raw material prices. Factories are stocking EUDR raw materials, and the price difference between EUDR raw materials and general raw materials has narrowed compared to last year [72] 4.2 Futures - spot spread analysis - In 2025, the non - standard arbitrage spread has fully returned. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the price of dark - colored rubber has been strong, and the spread between dark - and light - colored rubber has widened. In May 2025, NR was significantly stronger than RU, and the spread between them reached a multi - year high. The spread between RU2509 and mixed rubber also fully returned, with RU2509 trading at a rare discount to the mixed - rubber spot in late May. Later, attention should be paid to the spread trading opportunities such as going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509, and going long on RU and short on NR [75][85]