1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil market is in a game period between rapid inventory depletion and weakening marginal demand. Short - term supply is tight, but refinery demand is weakening. The oil price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, and SC crude oil may be stronger than the external market, but risks such as inventory inflection points and the return of geopolitical risk premiums should be vigilant [4]. - The supply - demand pattern shows regional differentiation characteristics. Supply - side disturbance factors are intensifying, and demand shows uneven performance. Geopolitical risk premiums are the key support, but the potential intervention of the United States may suppress the upward space of oil prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On June 18, the price of SC crude oil futures rose 5.3% to 552.7 yuan/barrel, with an intraday amplitude of nearly 9.2%. WTI and Brent oil prices remained horizontally consolidated. The cross - market spread changed significantly, and the premium of the Chinese market expanded rapidly, which may be related to shipping premiums and RMB exchange rate fluctuations [2]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 1.147 billion barrels in a single week, and Cushing inventories decreased by 995,000 barrels, the largest single - week destocking since April. However, refinery processing demand showed signs of weakness, with a sharp reduction in crude oil imports and a decline in equipment utilization rates, reflecting weak terminal consumption [2]. - The supply - demand pattern is regionally differentiated. On the supply side, Qatar raised the premium of Al - Shaheen crude oil, and the export volume of CPC Blend oil in the Black Sea remained unchanged. On the demand side, Japan's crude oil imports increased year - on - year in May, but the demand for refined oil products in the United States was weak [3]. - Geopolitical risk premiums are the key support, but the potential escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict may trigger U.S. intervention, which may suppress the upward space of oil prices [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC crude oil rose 5.3%, WTI fell 0.85%, and Brent fell 1.44%. Spot prices of various types of crude oil showed different degrees of change, and the spreads between different types of crude oil also changed significantly [6]. - Inventory: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.65%, Cushing inventories decreased by 4.2%, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 0.06%. The operating rate of U.S. refineries decreased by 1.17%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 2.11% [6]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose 2.65%, LU rose 3.02%, and NYMEX fuel oil rose 0.58%. Spot prices of various types of fuel oil generally increased, and the spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil also increased [7]. - Inventory: The inventory data of some regions and types of fuel oil showed different trends, and the inventories of some types of fuel oil in the United States were not updated [7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Supply - The EIA's put - into - production crude oil volume and crude oil imports in the United States from June 6 - 13 decreased compared with the previous period. Qatar raised the premium of Al - Shaheen crude oil, and the export volume of CPC Blend oil in the Black Sea in July remained unchanged. Iran may maintain export resilience [8][9]. Demand - The utilization rate of U.S. refinery equipment from June 6 - 13 was lower than expected, and the production of refined oil and gasoline decreased compared with the previous period, indicating weak demand in North America [9]. Inventory - U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, and total crude oil inventories decreased, while refined oil and gasoline inventories increased less than expected [10]. Market Information - Crude - related futures contracts rose, and the market is trading on Middle East geopolitical situations. If the United States is involved in the Israel - Iran conflict, the dollar may fall, and oil prices may also decline [11]. - The price of hot - rolled coil steel stopped falling and rebounded slightly, and the short - term price may fall after a small increase [12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, U.S. crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [13][15][17]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs estimates the geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude oil at $10 per barrel [1]

地缘冲突升级与科技变革交织，全球顶尖分析师共绘贵金属投资新蓝图 2025年6月14日，红狮金业2025年中投资论坛在香港线下线上同步盛大开幕。本次论坛汇聚领域顶尖贵金属分析师和金融科技 专家，围绕三四季度黄金、白银及原油走势展开深度剖析，并系统性探讨人工智能在黄金交易领域的革命性应用。 贵金属走势：避险需求推动黄金白银持续走强 论坛开场，红狮金融研究院首席分析师展示了最新预期分析：黄金价格在第三季度有望再次突破3500美元/盎司，而白银在工 业与投资双重需求推动下，可能挑战42美元/盎司的历史新高。 论坛现场展示的资本流动监测数据显示，在近期中东冲突升级期间，全球资金呈现出"风险资产抛售+避险资产涌入"的典型模 式。军#工、石油石化板块逆势领涨，而传统消费板块则明显承压。"这不是短期扰动"，"地缘冲突风险溢价已嵌入贵金属长 期定价。当市场看到伊朗核设施成为打击目标，意味着游戏规则已经发生本质变化。" 科技变革：AI重塑黄金交易生态 本次论坛最具前瞻性的议题聚焦AI技术在黄金交易中的应用。红狮科技金融实验室负责人首次展示了 AI黄金交易辅助系统的 两大突破性进展： 1. 多模态市场情绪分析：整合新闻文本、社交媒 ...

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings anticipates that the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict will be contained within a range of $5 to $10 per barrel [1] - Significant damage to Iran's production or export infrastructure could further elevate oil prices [1] Industry Impact - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to create volatility in the oil market, influencing pricing strategies and investment decisions [1] - The potential for increased oil prices due to geopolitical tensions may affect global supply chains and energy security [1]

Group 1 - Recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has raised concerns about potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply, leading to a surge in oil prices [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts Brent crude oil prices could rise above $90 per barrel in the near term due to increased geopolitical risk premium [1] - Despite the heightened geopolitical risks, Goldman Sachs maintains that oil supply from the Middle East is unlikely to be interrupted, forecasting strong supply growth outside of US shale oil [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs outlines a scenario where damage to Iran's export infrastructure could reduce its oil supply by 1.75 million barrels per day within six months, with a gradual recovery thereafter [1] - In this scenario, if OPEC+ core producers compensate for half of Iran's peak supply shortfall, Brent crude prices could peak slightly above $90 per barrel, but are expected to decline to $60 per barrel by 2026 as Iranian supply recovers [1] - In extreme tail scenarios, oil prices could rise even faster due to broader regional oil production or shipping disruptions [1][2] Group 3 - The likelihood of trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz appears low, but investors and policymakers remain vigilant due to the potential inability of OPEC+ core producers to deploy spare capacity [2] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for nearly one-fifth of global oil flow [2] - In extreme long-term disruption scenarios, Goldman Sachs estimates oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel [2]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices reaching as high as $76 per barrel before experiencing a sharp decline to $70.45 per barrel [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices experienced a peak of $76 per barrel, followed by a drop to $70.45 per barrel, reflecting a daily decline of 3.5% [1]. - Analysts suggest that the price of high-sulfur fuel oil is closely tied to crude oil prices, with a notable increase of 3.38% to 3276 yuan per ton [1][4]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that if regional conflicts escalate, oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs holds a contrary view, expecting prices to drop to $55 per barrel by Q4 2025 [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, with Israel conducting airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting retaliatory actions from Iran [2]. - Turkish President Erdogan emphasized the need for diplomatic solutions to the escalating violence, which poses risks to regional security [2]. - Analysts indicate that ongoing tensions in the Middle East will likely keep oil prices elevated due to supply risks [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The Middle East accounts for approximately one-third of global high-sulfur fuel oil exports, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts [5]. - Iranian high-sulfur fuel oil shipments have decreased significantly due to U.S. sanctions, with May shipments reported at 900,000 tons, down 100,000 tons from the previous month [5]. - Russian high-sulfur fuel oil exports also faced a decline, with May shipments estimated at 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from the previous month [5]. Group 4: Seasonal Demand Trends - Summer is a peak demand season for high-sulfur fuel oil, particularly in regions like the Middle East and South Asia, with Saudi Arabia's imports expected to rise [6]. - Egypt has increased its demand for high-sulfur fuel oil due to natural gas shortages, with June imports projected at 650,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous month [6]. - The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil may continue to grow, although OPEC+ production increases could impact this trend [6]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The volatility in international oil prices is expected to continue, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [7]. - Analysts recommend market participants to be cautious and consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [7]. - If Brent crude oil prices exceed $80 per barrel, high-sulfur fuel oil prices could rise above $510 per ton [8].

随着以色列和伊朗爆发冲突，外界对霍尔木兹海峡这一全球能源命脉的安全再度产生担忧。 在以色列袭击伊朗之后，伊朗官员已暗示可能关闭霍尔木兹海峡，这一言论一度引发国际原油 价格飙升。 为什么霍尔木兹海峡对全球能源市场至关重要？ 霍尔木兹海峡是连接波斯湾和印度洋的海峡， 亦是唯一一个进入波斯湾的水道。 （卫星图） 这条狭窄的水道在最窄处仅有29海里宽，却承载了近三分之一的全球海运原油运输量以及五 分之一的全球液化天然气（LNG）运输量。 美国能源信息署（EIA）将其称为"全球最重要的 石油咽喉要道"。 据国际能源署（IEA）统计，2023年每天约有2000万桶原油及成品油通过霍尔木兹海峡，占 全球石油贸易总量的近30%。其中约70%的运输量流向亚洲市场，最大买家包括印度和日本 等国。 尽管存在替代的管道运输方案，但能力有限。IEA估计，目前通过陆路改道的石油运输能力仅 为420万桶/日，例如沙特的"东西管道"（通往红海），以及阿联酋的"阿布扎比原油管 道"（通往富查伊拉）。这些替代路线的运输能力仅占海峡正常运输量的约四分之一。 由于卡塔尔和阿联酋的LNG出口几乎没有可行的替代航线，任何航运中断都将严重收紧全球供 应。 ...

过去5天布伦特原油期货的走势 在伊朗议会国家安全委员会成员伊斯梅尔·库萨里14日通过国家电视台释放信号后，市场的恐慌情绪达到了新的顶点。库萨里宣称，德黑兰正在评估封锁霍 尔木兹海峡的可行性。 加密预测平台Polymarket的押注数据显示，投资者对"伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡"可能性的判断，从以色列空袭前的24%一度飙升至40%。 霍尔木兹海峡，这条每日输送约2000万桶石油及相关产品、占据全球海运石油贸易量近五分之一的战略水道，再次因地缘政治的动荡成为全球瞩目的焦点。 冲突升级，油价狂飙——霍尔木兹海峡的阴影再现 德黑兰与耶路撒冷上空再次被爆炸声笼罩，新一轮的军事打击将中东再次推向冲突的深渊。这场冲突的直接引爆点，是以色列于6月13日凌晨对伊朗发动的 大规模空袭。 一时间，"中东火药桶"被彻底点燃，全球能源供应链的神经瞬间绷紧，布伦特原油期货与美国WTI原油期货上周双双录得超过10%的惊人涨幅。周一亚洲早 盘，涨势延续，国内原油期货大涨近6%，价格创近两个月新高。 对全球原油市场来说，伊朗方面关于可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡的表态，无疑是火上浇油。 华尔街巨头们迅速作出反应：摩根大通将其模型中霍尔木兹海峡被封锁的"最坏情 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that if regional conflicts escalate, oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel [1] - The bank's forecast for Brent crude oil futures in Q1 next year is set at $55 per barrel, excluding geopolitical risk premiums or significant oil supply disruptions [1] - The bank recommends increasing positions in high-quality Asian energy companies, specifically China National Petroleum Corporation (00857.HK), raising its H-share target price to HKD 8 due to breakthroughs in Xinjiang gas fields [1] Group 2 - The bank advises selling China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386.HK), anticipating disappointing Q2 performance [1] - The most bearish outlook is on airline stocks, particularly Air China (00753.HK) and China Southern Airlines (01055.HK) [1] - For shipping companies, higher freight rates are expected to offset the negative impact of increased fuel costs, with a preference for Evergreen Marine and China COSCO Shipping Corporation (01919.HK) [1]

Group 1: Market Impact - The recent escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel has significantly impacted global markets, with many broker reports indicating that the intensity and duration of this conflict may exceed previous encounters, leading to risks entering "unknown territory" [2] - On June 13, WTI crude oil prices surged over 14% at one point, closing up more than 7.5% at $73.18 per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since March 2022 [3] - The total trading volume in the U.S. crude oil options market skyrocketed to 681,000 contracts on June 13, with a notable concentration in $80 call options, indicating a strong market sentiment towards potential supply disruptions in the Middle East [4] Group 2: Speculative Positions - As of the week ending June 10, speculative positions in WTI crude oil saw a net increase of 16,000 contracts, reaching a total of 179,100 contracts, the highest in 19 weeks [3][4] - Brent crude oil net long positions also rose by over 29,100 contracts, totaling 196,900 contracts, the highest in 10 weeks [4] Group 3: Shipping and Freight Rates - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 3.36% to 1968 points on June 13, the highest since October of the previous year, with a cumulative increase of 54% over the past month [5] - Oil tanker freight rates surged, with forward contracts for July rising by 15% to $12.83 per ton, reflecting market expectations of supply disruptions [5] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks - The current oil prices are believed to reflect geopolitical risk premiums, with Morgan Stanley estimating a 7% probability of a worst-case scenario where oil prices could rise exponentially due to supply shocks [5] - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles over 30% of global maritime oil trade, poses a significant risk to oil supply and pricing [6] Group 5: Broader Market Reactions - The tensions in the Middle East have also led to a rise in gold prices, with international gold prices reaching $3,467 per ounce, while major global stock indices experienced declines [7] - Analysts suggest that while the current geopolitical tensions may lead to short-term price spikes, the long-term outlook for oil prices may remain weak due to anticipated increases in supply from OPEC+ and slowing demand growth [7][8]