Market Overview - On July 30, US stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, S&P 500 down 0.12%, and Nasdaq up 0.15% [1] - Major technology stocks experienced varied performance, with Nvidia rising over 2% and Apple falling more than 1% [3] Gold and Precious Metals - Gold stocks fell across the board, with notable declines including US Gold down over 7%, AngloGold down over 5%, and Kinross Gold down over 3% [5] - International precious metal futures saw a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce [12][13] Copper Sector - Copper mining stocks experienced significant drops, with Freeport-McMoRan down nearly 10% and a cumulative decline of 13% over the last five trading days [8] - Hudbay Minerals fell nearly 7%, and Southern Copper dropped over 6% [8] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% following a two-day monetary policy meeting [1] - The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 3.0% annual growth rate for real GDP in Q2 2025, reversing a previous contraction of -0.5% in Q1 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the geopolitical risk premium related to the Middle East tension fading, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market is shifting its focus to OPEC+'s production policy and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, and the US will hold talks with Iran next week. Fundamentally, global oil products were de-stocked in late June, with the de-stocking slope slightly exceeding expectations. The US commercial crude oil inventory reached the lowest level in the same period in history. The WTI fundamentals are positive, while domestic refinery profits rebounded. However, OPEC+ is preparing to significantly increase production again in August, and the expected acceleration of non-OPEC production in the fourth quarter limits the upside space of absolute prices. A positive spread trading strategy is recommended for the price difference, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From June 27 to July 3, WTI decreased by $0.45, BRENT decreased by $0.31, and DUBAI decreased by $0.35. SC increased by 8.10 yuan, and OMAN decreased by $1.16. Japanese naphtha CFR and Singapore fuel oil 380CST also showed certain price changes [3] 3.2 News - Trump's "Big and Beautiful Bill" ends long - term support for solar and wind energy, creates a friendly environment for oil, gas, and coal production, and gradually cancels tax credits for clean power investment and production in wind and solar energy [3] - OPEC+ is discussing an 8 - month production increase of 41.1 barrels per day, and the decision will be further discussed at the online meeting this weekend [4] - Iran's deputy foreign minister said that Iran does not intend to stop uranium enrichment activities and will not take further retaliatory actions against the US [4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 27, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 0.2 million barrels, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.845 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.239 million barrels. The average supply of US crude oil products in four weeks decreased by 1.12% year - on - year [4][5] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, and the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries recovered [5]

Group 1 - OPEC+ is discussing a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for August, following similar increases in May, June, and July to regain market share [1] - The additional production may exacerbate global oil oversupply and put downward pressure on prices [1] - Brent crude oil futures are currently trading around $68 per barrel, which aligns with U.S. President Trump's calls to lower fuel prices [1] Group 2 - Barclays Bank has raised its Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing improved demand outlook [1][2] - The bank's report indicates that global oil inventories decreased in Q2, driven by stronger demand growth and weak non-OPEC supply growth [2] - Barclays has increased its global demand growth forecast by 260,000 barrels per day, primarily from OECD countries, with U.S. oil demand expected to grow by 130,000 barrels per day this year [3] Group 3 - Despite OPEC+ accelerating production growth, actual output may lag due to pressures on some member countries to limit production [3] - OPEC+'s target production increased by 548,000 barrels per day from March to May 2025, but overall output remained stable, improving compliance rates [3]

Group 1: U.S. Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [3] - This strong employment data indicates the resilience of the U.S. economy, leading to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [3] - Initial jobless claims fell to 233,000, marking a six-week low, which reflects ongoing tightness in the labor market [3] Group 2: Dollar Strength and Oil Prices - The robust employment data has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which is now around 97, providing cost support for oil priced in dollars [2][3] - The market's expectations for a rate cut in July have diminished, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to around 80% [2] Group 3: OPEC+ Production and Geopolitical Risks - OPEC+ is set to discuss a plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August during their meeting on July 6, marking the fourth consecutive month of exceeding production expectations [4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose by 450,000 barrels per day in June compared to May, reaching a new high in over a year, indicating a proactive approach to releasing production capacity [4] - The geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, reducing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the geopolitical risk premium related to the tense situation in the Middle East fading, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market is turning to OPEC+ production policy formulation and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, and the US will hold talks with Iran next week. Fundamentally, global oil products were destocked in late June, with the destocking slope slightly exceeding expectations and the inventory being overall neutral to high. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 5.836 million barrels per day in the week of June 20th, currently at the lowest level in the same period of history. The WTI fundamentals are improving, while domestic refinery profits are rebounding and the Dubai monthly spread has strengthened recently. However, OPEC+ is preparing to significantly increase production by 414,000 barrels per day again in August. Overall, the fundamentals are still in the summer peak season, the supply - demand contradiction in the US market is large, and the upward space for absolute prices is limited. Maintain a positive spread trading strategy and pay attention to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Saudi Arabia is exporting crude oil at the fastest pace in over a year, with exports increasing by 441,000 barrels per day to 6.36 million barrels per day in June, an increase of about 7%. - US President Trump said he will fill the strategic petroleum reserve when market conditions are right. - Mexico's oil production has dropped to the level of the late 1970s, with exports in June dropping to a record low of 529,000 barrels per day. - Iran was reported to have loaded mines onto ships in the Persian Gulf last month, preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending June 28th was 680,000 barrels, compared with an expected - 2.257 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.277 million barrels [3][4] 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 20th, US crude oil exports decreased by 91,000 barrels per day to 4.27 million barrels per day, while domestic production increased by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day. - The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 1.39%. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.049 million barrels per day, a 1.6% decrease compared to the same period last year. - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 237,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. - The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves in the US was 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 440,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, and the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week, and the comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries rebounded [4] 3. Weekly Viewpoints - As the geopolitical risk premium related to the Middle East situation fades, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market focuses on OPEC+ production policy and Trump's tariff decision, and the US - Iran talks are upcoming. - In late June, global oil products were destocked, with the US commercial crude oil inventory at a historical low in the same period. The WTI fundamentals are improving, and domestic refinery profits are rebounding. - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in August. The upward space for absolute oil prices is limited, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Oil prices dropped significantly this week as the geopolitical risk premium related to Middle East tensions faded. The market is now focused on OPEC+ production policies and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, with the US set to talk to Iran next week. [5] - In terms of fundamentals, global oil products were de - stocked in late June, with the de - stocking rate slightly exceeding expectations. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.836 million barrels per day in the week of June 20th, reaching the lowest level in the same period of history. [5] - WTI fundamentals are positive as US gasoline and diesel are de - stocked, apparent demand rebounds, and refinery profits fluctuate. Domestic refinery profits rebound, and the main refinery operating rate increases. [5] - However, OPEC+ plans to significantly increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in August, and the non - OPEC production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. The upside space for absolute prices is limited, but a positive spread strategy is recommended for the price difference between months. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The EU is willing to accept a trade agreement with the US, which includes a 10% general tariff on many EU exports, but hopes for lower tariffs on key industries from the US. [3] - Kazakhstan's oil production may be 2% higher than expected this year, reaching 2 million barrels per day due to increased production from large oil fields. [4] - Morgan Stanley still expects a daily surplus of 1.3 million barrels in the market in 2026. Non - OPEC oil supply will grow strongly from 2025 to 2026, about 1 million barrels per day, and Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to around $60 per barrel early next year. [4] 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 20th, US crude oil exports decreased by 91,000 barrels per day to 4.27 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day. [4] - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 1.39%. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 237,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.049 million barrels per day, a 1.6% decrease compared to the same period last year. Commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 440,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [4] - In China, the operating rate of major refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel both increased, with sales - to - production ratios rising. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. Major refinery comprehensive profits rebounded, and local refinery comprehensive profits improved. [5] 3.3 Weekly View - With the geopolitical risk premium related to Middle East tensions fading, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market is now focused on OPEC+ production policies and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, and the US will talk to Iran next week. [5] - In late June, global oil products were de - stocked, with the de - stocking rate slightly exceeding expectations. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.836 million barrels per day in the week of June 20th, reaching the lowest level in the same period of history, mainly due to high - level refinery operations and a rapid decrease in Canadian crude oil imports. [5] - The number of oil drilling rigs decreased by 6 to 432. US gasoline and diesel were de - stocked, apparent demand rebounded, refinery profits fluctuated, and WTI fundamentals improved. Domestic refinery profits rebounded, the main refinery operating rate increased, and the Dubai monthly spread strengthened recently. [5] - On the negative side, OPEC+ plans to significantly increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in August, and the next meeting will be held on July 6th. Overall, the fundamentals are still in the summer peak season, with a large supply - demand contradiction in the US market. Although Russian refined oil exports have declined recently, the expectation of rapid OPEC+ production increase in August is strengthening, and non - OPEC production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. The upside space for absolute prices is limited, and a positive spread strategy is recommended for the price difference between months. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices. [5]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is currently in a consolidation phase, influenced by OPEC's production decisions and geopolitical factors, with oil prices showing slight declines as the market weighs supply increases against demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: OPEC Production Decisions - OPEC is considering an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day for August, marking the fourth consecutive month of significant production increases, totaling 1.64 million barrels [1][2] - The strategy of Saudi Arabia reflects a "boiling frog" approach, aiming to capture market share while avoiding panic in the market [2] - There is a discrepancy between announced production increases and actual effective increases, highlighting risks related to compliance within OPEC [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The fragile ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has significantly reduced geopolitical risk premiums, with the premium dropping from $15 per barrel to less than $1 [3] - President Trump's potential support for easing sanctions on Iran could further diminish the strategic scarcity of oil, although uncertainties remain regarding Iran's compliance [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Current oil prices are oscillating between $65 and $68 per barrel, reflecting a balance between U.S. economic resilience and seasonal demand against OPEC's production increases and policy uncertainties [3] - The U.S. shale oil cost line is expected to absorb about 50% of OPEC's nominal production increase, indicating a self-regulating market mechanism [3] - A critical OPEC meeting on July 6 will test the shale oil cost baseline and could trigger a reevaluation of oil values if the production increase is confirmed [3]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical risk premium has decreased following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices and a shift in investor focus back to fundamentals rather than geopolitical tail risks [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has alleviated concerns regarding supply disruptions in the oil market [1] - The reduction in geopolitical tensions has allowed for a reassessment of inflation expectations, providing some breathing room for investors [1] Group 2: Market Implications - Expectations of a substantial increase in production by OPEC+ in August are contributing to downward pressure on oil prices [1] - The recent significant weekly decline in international oil prices reflects the market's reaction to these geopolitical developments and production forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market experienced a significant return of risk appetite during the week of June 20 to 27, 2025, driven by the easing of geopolitical tensions and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Geopolitical Factors - The notable easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, alleviated concerns about escalating conflicts, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices from nearly $80 to $66, marking the largest weekly drop since March 2023 [1]. - The reduction in geopolitical risk premium also diminished the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which saw a consecutive decline for two weeks [1]. Monetary Policy Signals - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals, particularly from Vice Chair Bowman, who unexpectedly supported the possibility of rate cuts in the summer, indicated a shift in the Fed's internal assessment of inflation and economic outlook [3]. - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 have risen to 2-3 times, with an increased probability of a cut in July, leading to a significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields [3]. Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with major U.S. indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones reaching historical highs, reflecting restored market confidence and a shift towards growth-oriented assets [4]. - Technology stocks, sensitive to interest rate changes, benefited significantly from the rising rate cut expectations [4]. Regional Market Trends - Asian markets, particularly Japan, showed strong performance, reflecting improved global risk sentiment and optimism regarding trade prospects [5]. - The cryptocurrency market also thrived, with Bitcoin surpassing $107,000, indicating strong institutional interest in crypto assets [5]. Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index experienced its worst week in years, dropping to a three-year low due to reduced demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency and narrowing interest rate differentials [6][7]. - Other major currencies, such as the euro and British pound, strengthened against the dollar, reflecting improved economic outlooks [7]. Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market showed clear differentiation, with oil and gold prices declining due to reduced geopolitical risk and safe-haven demand, while industrial metals like copper rose nearly 6% to a two-month high [8]. - The performance of different commodities was influenced by unique fundamental factors, despite an overall improvement in risk appetite [8]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - The upcoming week is expected to bring significant economic data releases, including global PMI, CPI, and U.S. non-farm payroll reports, which will provide insights into global economic health and inflation pressures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in oil prices is attributed to the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the anticipated increase in production by OPEC+ in August, which enhances supply outlook [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The market has largely eliminated the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices following the ceasefire between Iran and Israel [1] - Analysts note that the geopolitical tensions that previously supported higher oil prices have diminished significantly [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ representatives indicated plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following similar increases in May, June, and July [1] - This planned production increase is expected to further pressure oil prices downward due to improved supply forecasts [1]