MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：丁文武 美国股市在小幅上涨中为2月开局，投资者仍在权衡唐纳德·特朗普提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席的影 响，并梳理最新的企业财报。黄金和白银的跌势趋缓，此前的大幅下跌震撼了金融市场。债券收益率与 美元一并走高。 美国股市在小幅上涨中为2月开局，投资者仍在权衡唐纳德·特朗普提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席的影 响，并梳理最新的企业财报。黄金和白银的跌势趋缓，此前的大幅下跌震撼了金融市场。债券收益率与 美元一并走高。 纽约时间9：53，标普500指数上涨0.2%，纳斯达克100指数上涨0.4%，道指走高0.6%。美股此前连续三 日的下跌暂歇。一项超大盘科技股指数回落，小盘股领跑。Palantir Technologies Inc．将于盘后公布业 绩。 Capital.com资深市场分析师Daniela Hathorn表示："面对密集的宏观经济日程，投资者谨慎交易，并重新 调整对全球货币宽松步伐的预期。" "市场对于沃什获得提名的鹰派看法今晨仍未消散，"富国银行的财富与投资管理首席投资官Darrell Cronk指出。"我们预计沃什 ...

有色金属周五夜盘大幅回落，日内低开低走，午后悲观情绪愈发浓重，沪锡、沪镍、沪铜、沪铝还有铝 合金全面跌停，其他金属也大幅下挫。上周五美国总统特朗普宣布提名沃什出任下一任美联储主席，市 场认为其倾向支持降息，但不会像部分其他候选人那样主张更激进地放松政策，美联储独立性担忧缓 解。叠加美国PPI高于预期，部分归因于进口关税的传导效应，这意味着未来数月通胀可能加速，或让 美联储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定，美指出现反弹，金属走势承压。与此同时，前期贵金属大涨所 带来的多头情绪外溢对此前有色走势提振较大，目前贵金属受多头踩踏、美联储政策预期转变等多因素 拖累出现史诗级暴跌一幕，期市氛围骤然降温，有色此前受资金情绪推动的涨幅大面积回吐。 **地缘溢价快速回吐，原油系遭遇跌停潮** 周一在缺乏持续地缘冲突支撑的情况下，多头集中离场避险，内盘原油系全线低开低走，盘中遭遇跌停 潮，SC原油、高硫燃料油主力合约双双封跌停，SC原油主力合约报收449.0元/桶，高硫燃料油主力合约 报收2679元/吨，低硫燃料油主力合约午后一度触及跌停，最终收跌5.92%，报收3128元/吨，沥青、液 化气主力合约双双跌超4%。新华社消息显示，美 ...

在缺乏可信货币替代品的情况下，黄金依然是最终的避风港。 自国际现货黄金在1月29日触及5596美元/盎司的高点后，短时间大幅回调，最低下探至4402美元，跌幅 达27%。截至第一财经记者发稿，金价为每盎司4724美元/盎司，回踩至今年1月中旬水平。 随着金价快速冲高又骤然回调，市场弥漫着一股"估值焦虑"：支撑黄金上涨的核心逻辑是否已然生变？ 瑞士百达资管（Pictet Asset Management）首席经济学家韦柏睿（Patrick Zweifel）在接受第一财经采 访时表示，从本质上看，黄金既是传统的对冲通胀工具，也是对抗法定货币风险的多元化手段。在他看 来，当前金价走势更多是后者的体现，即对法币信用（尤其是美元）的风险对冲。 韦柏睿认为，随着美元"武器化"风险显现，各国央行在主动、加速地降低对美元的依赖。"自2014年以 来，主权基金和央行等官方机构一直在重新平衡其美元头寸。美元在全球外汇储备中的占比在2014年达 到66%的峰值，去年已降至58%。"他称，即便是在美元指数走强的时期，这种占比减少的趋势依然在 持续，如果从纯估值角度来看，这甚至是"违背直觉"的。 换言之，占比减少并非由美元走弱导致的汇 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that geopolitical risk premiums are decreasing as the U.S. engages in negotiations with Iran, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices [1][3] - Brent crude oil prices fell over 7%, trading around $66 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude approached $62 per barrel [1][3] - The recent sell-off in the commodity market, particularly in metals, has also impacted oil prices, with gold prices dropping by 10% and copper prices declining over 5% [1][3] Group 2 - The tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated in January due to Iran's crackdown on protests, which previously pushed oil prices significantly higher [2][4] - The geopolitical situation raised the risk of supply disruptions in about one-third of global oil supply regions, diverting attention from the increasing oversupply in the global oil market [2][4] - Despite recent oil price increases, OPEC and its partners have approved a plan to maintain stable production levels in March, marking the final phase of a three-month production freeze [2][4]

021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 地缘局势驱动，油价谨慎追高 请阅读正文后的声明 月度报告 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 行业 原油月报 日期 2026 年 2 月 2 日 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图3：WTI远期曲线（$/bbl） 图4：Brent远期曲线($/bbl) 数 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：金十期货 SC原油主力午盘闪崩封跌停！美伊"认真谈话"信号突发，地缘溢价一夜蒸发，这是趋势反转还是暴力 洗盘？ 2026年2月2日，SC原油期货主力合约午盘迅速走低，并最终封于跌停板。综合市场分析认为，此次波 动而是国际油价剧烈波动的直接映射。其核心驱动力在于，持续支撑油价的地缘政治"风险溢价"因美伊 紧张局势出现意外缓和信号而骤然收缩，同时，宏观流动性预期收紧以及本就宽松的供需基本面共同放 大了市场的抛售压力。同时，美元走强、宏观流动性预期收紧以及本就宽松的供需基本面共同放大了市 场的抛售压力。 疲弱基本面难以支撑高溢价 虽然欧佩克+成员国同意维持暂停增产政策，3月保持原油产量不再提高。石油输出国组织发表声明 称，八个欧佩克+成员国重申致力于维护市场稳定，全球经济前景稳健且当前石油市场基本面健康，库 存水平较低。但创元期货表示，考虑到当前全球石油供应过剩大背景，将压制情绪溢价的表现高度，油 价持续走高难度较大。 援引光大期货研报显示，IEA认为，今年国际石油市场将出现供过于求的情况，供给超出需求的幅度高 达每日385万桶，相当于全球需求 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices have declined, leading to a continued drop in Hong Kong oil stocks, with 延长石油国际 falling over 7% and 中国海洋石油 and 上海石油化工 down nearly 4% [1] - In Asian early trading, WTI crude oil fell below $63 per barrel, down 4.24%, while Brent crude dropped 3.29% to $67.037 per barrel [1] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to reduced supply disruption risks due to indications of potential negotiations between the US and Iran, as stated by Trump and reported by The Wall Street Journal [1] Group 2 - The stock performance of various oil companies includes 延长石油国际 at 0.390 (-7.14%), 甲国海洋石温 at 23.480 (-3.69%), 上海石油化工股 at 1.530 (-3.77%), 中国石油股份 at 9.000 (-3.02%), 中海油田服务 at 8.400 (-1.98%), 昆仑能源 at 7.880 (-1.50%), and 中国石油化工股 at 5.310 (-1.30%) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the continuous decline in US dollar credit, coupled with speculative capital inflows, has led to a six-day rise in London zinc prices, with a 2.3% increase [1][2] - The overnight London zinc price opened at $3,396 per ton, peaked at $3,575.5, and closed at $3,453, marking a $77 increase and a 2.30% rise, with trading volume increasing significantly [1] - The macroeconomic environment shows persistent geopolitical risk premiums driving demand for physical assets, while expectations of a potential dovish shift in US monetary policy could further support commodity prices [1][2] Group 2 - On the fundamental side, domestic refined zinc exports are replenishing overseas inventories, and the LME premium has significantly decreased, indicating a reduction in the divergence between domestic and international markets [2] - Despite a cyclical increase in global zinc supply, the transmission of increased mining output to smelting capacity is slowing due to reductions in overseas smelting operations, leading to a forecast of continued low smelting profits until 2026 [2] - Overall, the combination of a declining dollar, expectations of Federal Reserve easing, geopolitical risk premiums, and sustained demand for quality metal assets supports the outlook for continued increases in zinc prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in global asset pricing logic from focusing on growth and policy to being influenced by conflicts and uncertainties, particularly in the context of rising geopolitical risks and their impact on investment strategies [3][4]. Group 1: Global Market Dynamics - Over the past decade, global asset pricing has primarily revolved around central bank policies, inflation trajectories, and economic growth, but this framework is changing due to prolonged geopolitical conflicts [4]. - The World Economic Forum's 2026 Global Risk Report identifies "geoeconomic confrontation" and "interstate conflict" as major long-term risks, indicating a heightened focus on tail risks among global investors [4][5]. Group 2: Impact of Geopolitical Risks - The changing landscape leads to three main impacts: asset prices becoming more sensitive to sudden events, increased risk premiums for safe and physical assets, and a decline in the effectiveness of relying solely on economic recovery and profit growth for asset allocation [6]. - The surge in gold prices above $5,000 per ounce and silver prices above $100 per ounce reflects the dominance of "conflict premium and safe-haven demand" in pricing, indicating a need for strategies that address both trends and uncertainties [6]. Group 3: China's Asset Advantages - China's assets are gaining recognition for their policy independence, which is particularly valuable in a high-uncertainty environment, as the country maintains a focus on stable growth and liquidity [9]. - This policy orientation suggests that Chinese assets are less exposed to external geopolitical conflicts, making them more attractive for long-term investors seeking stability and potential growth [9]. Group 4: Investment Reallocation - With the expiration of high-interest deposits and a low-interest environment, long-term funds are seeking new allocation directions, with potential flows into wealth management, insurance, public funds, and A-shares [10]. - The annualized return of the CSI 300 index at approximately 7.62% highlights the relative attractiveness of equity assets compared to other investment options, such as real estate and government bonds [10]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategy - A-shares are positioned as a core holding in investment portfolios due to their lower direct exposure to external conflicts and the potential for policy support [12]. - Satellite positions in portfolios should focus on commodities and macro strategies to enhance flexibility and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical uncertainties [12].

由于美国总统特朗普正考虑对OPEC成员国伊朗实施军事打击，国际原油价格周四大涨，美、布两油日内涨幅扩大至4%以上，布伦特原油站上70美元/桶， WTI原油站上66美元/桶，均为去年9月以来首次。最新消息称，伊朗发出警告，宣布计划于周日和下周一在霍尔木兹海峡举行实弹海军演习。 据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社29日报道，伊朗伊斯兰议会议长卡利巴夫表示，在当前局势下难以信任美国总统特朗普，在伊朗人民的经济利益未得到保证之前，谈 判不会进行。 此前多名消息人士向路透社透露，特朗普正考虑针对伊朗安全部队及领导层实施精准打击，以支持伊朗反政府抗议者。两名美国消息人士表示，这位美国总 统旨在为伊朗政权更迭创造条件。 本月早些时候，伊朗政府为平息抗议活动发起安全镇压，已导致数千人死亡。 另一方面，哈萨克斯坦的巨型田吉兹油田在上周因电气火灾导致产量下降后，正在分阶段重新启动，目标是在一周内恢复全面生产。 而在美国，作为世界最大的石油生产国和最大的液化天然气出口国，其原油和天然气生产商正在恢复油井的生产，此前冬季风暴"弗恩"在上周末造成了生产 中断。 瑞银分析师乔瓦尼·斯陶诺沃（Giovanni Staunovo）表示："哈萨克斯坦出现的 ...