在美国总统特朗普威胁对全球最大原油生产国之一伊朗采取军事打击之际，WTI原油期货上周大涨近 7%，为自去年10月以来的最大单周涨幅。然而，周一市场开盘后，随着紧张局势似乎有所缓和、整体 大宗商品板块走弱，油价迅速回吐涨幅。 几天之后，华盛顿与德黑兰之间发生的多起紧张军事互动，使局势进一步升级的可能性仍然存在，而上 述资金流入很可能反映了投资者为潜在反弹进行的提前布局。 智通财经APP获悉，随着美伊紧张局势持续发酵，投资者押注油价将继续上涨，一只原油交易型基金 (ETF)取得自疫情以来最大的单日资金流入。数据显示，近几日约有接近2亿美元的资金在周二流入 WisdomTree旗下的WTI原油交易型产品，使该基金的总资产规模增加逾四分之一，达到9.15亿美元。该 基金通过全额出资、以抵押品支持的掉期合约来跟踪原油价格，而非直接持有期货合约，从而降低了其 在期货市场中的直接影响力。 据悉，在多位中东领导人紧急游说特朗普政府放弃退出谈判的威胁后，原定于2月6日举行的美伊核谈判 计划得以恢复，谈判将在阿曼举行。美国稍早前曾拒绝伊朗将原定会议地点由土耳其伊斯坦布尔改到阿 曼的提议——此次僵局引发了整个中东地区的担忧，担心特 ...

TANKAN AND Fra F EST G SIL PM a ® 2026年以来，全球大宗商品市场经历了一场剧烈的定价重估。2月初，国际油价显著承压，布伦特原油期货价格一度回落至66美元/桶下方，WTI原油期货价 格一度跌破62美元/桶。油价大跌的直接诱因在于贵金属板块暴跌引发的跨资产流动性恐慌，避险情绪的快速退潮导致资金从大宗商品板块无差别撤离。凯 文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席后，美元指数强势反弹，进一步压制以美元计价的原油估值。在油价大幅波动时，地缘风险溢价经历快速修正，随着特 朗普政府释放出与伊朗重启谈判的信号，市场对中东供应中断的极端担忧暂时缓解。不过，这并不意味着地缘风险的消退，相反，随着美印贸易协定迫使印 度削减俄油进口并转向美国与委内瑞拉资源，全球能源贸易版图正在经历重构。这种由宏观流动性收紧与地缘叙事切换共同主导的短期剧烈波动，正是深入 剖析当前油价运行逻辑的最佳切入点。 图为伊朗原油出口量（单位：万桶/日） 从"石油美元"到"资源博弈"的新范式 从特朗普的关税政策，到委内瑞拉和伊朗等一系列地缘演变，我们不难发现，2025年以来全球原油市场的定价锚点正经历从单一"石油美元"流动性向广 义 ...

除地缘因素外，美国极寒天气的冲击也助推了油价上涨。范智颖表示，本计价周期内，美国遭遇名 为"弗恩"的冬季风暴袭击，波及超24个州，导致美国原油产量短期受损，叠加柴油、取暖油等需求短期 走高，使得原油供需阶段性偏紧，进一步为油价上行提供支撑。 不过值得注意的是，2月2日（本周一）国际油价出现大幅下跌，原油市场波动加剧。对此，范智颖分 析，本周初油价大跌一方面是因为宏观看多情绪退潮，周五晚间特朗普政府宣布提名凯文·沃什为新一 任美联储主席，市场认为其政策主张偏向"鹰派"，导致商品市场价格大幅回调；另一方面是美伊双方释 放和谈意愿，尽管分歧明显，但市场预期风险升级的可能性降低，地缘溢价回落。 "从当前看，油价波动率已接近去年以伊冲突时期的高点，春节前油价仍有一定调整需求，但波动率或 逐步降低。"范智颖认为，后市仍需重点关注中东及俄乌地缘局势的变动，这将是影响短期油价走势的 核心因素。 曹莹莹也表示，后期需持续关注美伊和谈进展，预计油价将呈现窄幅波动行情，但考虑到当前油市基本 面偏弱，供应过剩及库存压力较大，原油价格整体或偏弱运行，下轮国内成品油调价存在下跌可能。 本次调价落地后，2026年成品油调价呈现"两涨零跌一 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 地缘风险溢价下降叠加系统性风险共振，美原油近两日跌幅接近5%，国内SC原油继周一跌停后，其主 力合约周二盘中大跌5%。美伊局势进入"军事威慑+外交谈判"并行的关键窗口期，本周五（2月6日）伊 斯坦布尔谈判为关键节点，决定局势走向（缓和或升级），当前双方核心诉求分歧较大，美方要"彻底 去核+限制导弹+停止代理人活动"，伊朗要"保留核权利+解除制裁+不涉国防议题"。地缘事件存在不确 定性，短期原油以震荡市对待。 据伊朗媒体报道，伊朗总统2日下令同美国启动核谈判，伊朗可能在未来几天同美国举行高规格谈判。 白宫和以色列政府官员2日分别证实，美国总统特使威特科夫将于3日抵达以色列。周六美总统向记者表 示伊朗正与华盛顿进行"严肃对话"，此前几个小时，伊朗最高国家安全委员会主席拉里贾尼表示，正在 推动谈判的安排。美方多次威胁称，若伊朗拒绝核协议或继续镇压抗议者，美方将进行干预。 OPEC+周日会议决定维持3月原油产量不变。该联盟去年11月已冻结2026年1月至3月期间的增产计划， 因季节性需求疲软。综上，地缘局势变化依旧是扰动油价的重要因素，一旦美伊局势升级 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent sharp decline in tin prices is driven by multiple negative factors, including macroeconomic pressures from the Federal Reserve's hawkish policies and a strong US dollar, which have weakened the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [1][2] - The domestic market is experiencing a significant drop in tin prices, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) showing a decrease of 12.38%, reflecting a broader trend of weak demand and high inventory levels [1][2] - The geopolitical situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has eased, leading to a reduction in speculative trading around tin supply, which has contributed to the recent price drop [1][2] Group 2 - The current market is expected to enter a phase of low-level fluctuations, with the core trading range for the SHFE main contract projected between 375,000 and 390,000 yuan per ton, indicating a search for short-term balance [3] - Key indicators for a market turnaround include potential adjustments in the US dollar index and improvements in spot market transactions, while medium-term recovery will depend on post-holiday restocking demand and actual supply reductions [3] - The market is currently in a critical phase of panic emotion release and reassessment of fundamentals, with long-term trends requiring significant inventory reduction or fundamental changes in monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3]

郭艳鹏认为供给过剩的大格局并未改变。他预计，全球原油供需平衡的实质性拐点可能出现在2026年一 季度之后，届时供给增长受限与需求季节性回暖或共同为油价提供上行动力。 进入2026年，国际原油市场风云再起。受伊朗局势影响，布伦特原油价格一度突破70美元/桶关口，在 不到一个月的时间内累计反弹超过10美元/桶，成为近半年来最为强劲的一轮上涨。 市场普遍认为，近期美国在中东地区的军事行动，加剧了市场对伊朗原油供应可能中断的担忧。然而， 在"火热"的盘面之下，能化研究员在接受期货日报记者采访时却冷静地表示，全球原油市场供需宽松的 基本格局并未发生根本性扭转，当前涨幅已蕴含较高的地缘风险溢价，需警惕市场情绪退潮后的回调风 险。 "中东地缘局势对油价的影响主要包括两个方面。"中辉期货能化研究员郭艳鹏分析道，"一是伊朗自身 的原油供应，其产量已达350万桶/日，出口量约160万桶/日；二是其毗邻的霍尔木兹海峡，作为全球石 油贸易咽喉要道，日均通过量巨大。"他表示，2025年6月以伊冲突期间布伦特油价因地缘风险带来的溢 价在15美元/桶左右，而本轮自1月初以来的上涨幅度已超10美元/桶，已经接近上一轮冲突的溢价幅 度。 海证 ...

海证期货能化研究员郑梦琦也持相似观点。她表示，2025年6月以伊冲突期间，原油市场对地缘风险的 反应和消退都较为迅速。当前原油市场供需过剩，若伊朗地缘风险并未进一步实质性发酵，其带来的风 险溢价将逐步回落，弱势的基本面会重新压制油价。 尽管地缘事件吸引了市场的绝大部分目光，但分析师们均认为，决定油价中长期走向的基石仍是供需基 本面。从供给端看，上述两位研究员均指出短期存在一些扰动因素，如哈萨克斯坦Tengiz油田的意外停 产、美国极寒天气导致的产量短暂下降等，但这些影响被普遍认为是"暂时的"。郑梦琦表示，美国原油 产量仍处于历史高位，冬季风暴的影响短暂，港口流量已快速恢复。长期来看，OPEC+在一季度结束 后存在潜在的增产预期，全球原油供应预计较为充足。 需求侧则呈现出结构性分化。郑梦琦表示，成品油需求中，柴油相对较强，形成一定支撑，但汽柴油整 体需求相对较弱，"新能源替代旧能源是大势所趋，新能源车销量占比已超过传统燃油车，柴油重卡的 市场份额也在被侵蚀"。她引用国际能源署（IEA）的预测称，2026年汽油和柴油的需求同比增速仅有 0.3%和0.8%，全球原油库存将攀升至相对高位。 郭艳鹏认为供给过剩的大格局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $5,500 per ounce, and the implications for industrial metals like copper, suggesting that the dynamics driving these metals are more complex than traditional sector rotation theories [5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market is experiencing a significant shift, with copper evolving from a purely cyclical commodity to a strategic asset, influenced by macroeconomic changes and geopolitical risks [10][22]. - The weakening credibility of the US dollar, evidenced by its drop to a four-year low, is prompting investors to seek alternatives, with gold being the primary beneficiary of this sentiment [14][18]. - As central banks reconsider their asset allocations in light of dollar instability, copper is increasingly viewed as a strategic resource rather than just a trading commodity [20][21]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, such as military actions in the Middle East and US-European relations, are contributing to a global supply chain restructuring, which heightens the demand for safe-haven assets like gold and introduces a "geopolitical risk premium" into copper prices [23][27]. - The potential for supply disruptions due to political instability in major copper-producing regions (e.g., Chile, Peru, Congo) adds to the urgency of securing copper as a strategic asset [24][25]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Current copper inventories are rising globally, particularly in the London Metal Exchange (LME), due to weakened demand from China and higher domestic prices, leading to a surplus in the market [33][34]. - The phenomenon of "deep contango" in copper prices indicates a supply surplus, with immediate delivery prices significantly lower than future contracts, reflecting a lack of current demand [36]. - Despite short-term supply issues, long-term projections indicate a tightening supply due to insufficient investment in new copper mines and declining ore grades, which could support higher prices in the future [45][48]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that copper's price dynamics will diverge from traditional inventory-driven models, as it begins to incorporate premiums for its strategic importance and inflation hedging capabilities [62]. - In the short term (1-3 months), copper prices are expected to experience volatility, influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events, while the long-term outlook remains bullish due to structural supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles [64][68]. - The interplay between current supply realities and future demand expectations will create a complex pricing environment, necessitating close monitoring of both financial and industrial reports to understand copper's trajectory [74][75].

或受美国总统特朗普加大对伊朗军事威胁消息影响，国际油价连涨三天冲破了四个月高点。 从近期盘面表现来看，1月29日，国际油价收涨超3%，布伦特原油价格收于70.71美元/桶，突破70美元大关。 分析师认为，长期来看，今年的油价仍然存在下调压力。 "最近油价的涨势超出了大家的预期，业内此前并没预判到能涨这么多。"隆众资讯原油分析师李彦今天在接受第一财经记者采访时直 言。 截至1月30日第一财经记者发稿，国际油价有小幅下调，WTI美国原油价格下调1.941%至64.15美元/桶，布伦特原油价格下调1.897%至 68.25美元/桶。 中银国际分析，短期内国际油价面临关税政策与OPEC+增产的压力，但地缘风险溢价、OPEC+的干预能力以及全球需求韧性有望支撑油 价底部；另外，宏观层面的不确定性或将加大油价的波动水平。 李彦认为，主要因素是市场对美伊局势的担忧，由于地缘因素扰动了情绪，业内担心未来原油供应可能出现问题。而次要因素有两个， 一是前段时间的寒潮天气确实导致美国原油的产量下降，另一个是哈萨克斯坦前段时间由于停电故障，部分油田暂时停产，也对油市产 生了影响。 宏观层面，据摩根大通报告，占据哈萨克斯坦近一半产量的 ...

Core Insights - International oil prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical risks and the interplay of soft power dynamics, particularly following Trump's statements regarding military actions towards Iran [1][2][3] - The current oil price situation reflects a struggle between soft power (geopolitical factors) and hard power (inventory and production policies), with soft power currently dominating the market [3][4] Geopolitical Factors - Trump's announcement of a "large fleet heading towards Iran" has heightened concerns over the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to an increase in geopolitical risk premiums [2][3] - The U.S. has increased its naval presence in the Middle East, with six destroyers and additional naval assets deployed, which further escalates tensions in the region [2] Market Reactions - As of January 29, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose by $2.21 to $65.42 per barrel, marking a 3.50% increase, while Brent crude oil futures increased by $2.31 to $70.71 per barrel, a 3.38% rise [2] - The unexpected decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of an increase, has also contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices [2] OPEC's Role - OPEC has maintained its production cut policy, choosing not to increase output despite rising oil prices, which supports the current price levels [1][3] - The strategy of OPEC is seen as a form of "asymmetric soft power," aimed at reinforcing its authority in the industry and undermining the competitiveness of U.S. shale oil [4] Short-term Price Outlook - The short-term outlook for oil prices is expected to remain strong, influenced by geopolitical risks and potential military actions, with any escalation likely to push prices higher [3][4]