除地缘因素外，美国极寒天气的冲击也助推了油价上涨。范智颖表示，本计价周期内，美国遭遇名 为"弗恩"的冬季风暴袭击，波及超24个州，导致美国原油产量短期受损，叠加柴油、取暖油等需求短期 走高，使得原油供需阶段性偏紧，进一步为油价上行提供支撑。 不过值得注意的是，2月2日（本周一）国际油价出现大幅下跌，原油市场波动加剧。对此，范智颖分 析，本周初油价大跌一方面是因为宏观看多情绪退潮，周五晚间特朗普政府宣布提名凯文·沃什为新一 任美联储主席，市场认为其政策主张偏向"鹰派"，导致商品市场价格大幅回调；另一方面是美伊双方释 放和谈意愿，尽管分歧明显，但市场预期风险升级的可能性降低，地缘溢价回落。 "从当前看，油价波动率已接近去年以伊冲突时期的高点，春节前油价仍有一定调整需求，但波动率或 逐步降低。"范智颖认为，后市仍需重点关注中东及俄乌地缘局势的变动，这将是影响短期油价走势的 核心因素。 曹莹莹也表示，后期需持续关注美伊和谈进展，预计油价将呈现窄幅波动行情，但考虑到当前油市基本 面偏弱，供应过剩及库存压力较大，原油价格整体或偏弱运行，下轮国内成品油调价存在下跌可能。 本次调价落地后，2026年成品油调价呈现"两涨零跌一 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 地缘风险溢价下降叠加系统性风险共振，美原油近两日跌幅接近5%，国内SC原油继周一跌停后，其主 力合约周二盘中大跌5%。美伊局势进入"军事威慑+外交谈判"并行的关键窗口期，本周五（2月6日）伊 斯坦布尔谈判为关键节点，决定局势走向（缓和或升级），当前双方核心诉求分歧较大，美方要"彻底 去核+限制导弹+停止代理人活动"，伊朗要"保留核权利+解除制裁+不涉国防议题"。地缘事件存在不确 定性，短期原油以震荡市对待。 据伊朗媒体报道，伊朗总统2日下令同美国启动核谈判，伊朗可能在未来几天同美国举行高规格谈判。 白宫和以色列政府官员2日分别证实，美国总统特使威特科夫将于3日抵达以色列。周六美总统向记者表 示伊朗正与华盛顿进行"严肃对话"，此前几个小时，伊朗最高国家安全委员会主席拉里贾尼表示，正在 推动谈判的安排。美方多次威胁称，若伊朗拒绝核协议或继续镇压抗议者，美方将进行干预。 OPEC+周日会议决定维持3月原油产量不变。该联盟去年11月已冻结2026年1月至3月期间的增产计划， 因季节性需求疲软。综上，地缘局势变化依旧是扰动油价的重要因素，一旦美伊局势升级 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent sharp decline in tin prices is driven by multiple negative factors, including macroeconomic pressures from the Federal Reserve's hawkish policies and a strong US dollar, which have weakened the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [1][2] - The domestic market is experiencing a significant drop in tin prices, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) showing a decrease of 12.38%, reflecting a broader trend of weak demand and high inventory levels [1][2] - The geopolitical situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has eased, leading to a reduction in speculative trading around tin supply, which has contributed to the recent price drop [1][2] Group 2 - The current market is expected to enter a phase of low-level fluctuations, with the core trading range for the SHFE main contract projected between 375,000 and 390,000 yuan per ton, indicating a search for short-term balance [3] - Key indicators for a market turnaround include potential adjustments in the US dollar index and improvements in spot market transactions, while medium-term recovery will depend on post-holiday restocking demand and actual supply reductions [3] - The market is currently in a critical phase of panic emotion release and reassessment of fundamentals, with long-term trends requiring significant inventory reduction or fundamental changes in monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3]

郭艳鹏认为供给过剩的大格局并未改变。他预计，全球原油供需平衡的实质性拐点可能出现在2026年一 季度之后，届时供给增长受限与需求季节性回暖或共同为油价提供上行动力。 进入2026年，国际原油市场风云再起。受伊朗局势影响，布伦特原油价格一度突破70美元/桶关口，在 不到一个月的时间内累计反弹超过10美元/桶，成为近半年来最为强劲的一轮上涨。 市场普遍认为，近期美国在中东地区的军事行动，加剧了市场对伊朗原油供应可能中断的担忧。然而， 在"火热"的盘面之下，能化研究员在接受期货日报记者采访时却冷静地表示，全球原油市场供需宽松的 基本格局并未发生根本性扭转，当前涨幅已蕴含较高的地缘风险溢价，需警惕市场情绪退潮后的回调风 险。 "中东地缘局势对油价的影响主要包括两个方面。"中辉期货能化研究员郭艳鹏分析道，"一是伊朗自身 的原油供应，其产量已达350万桶/日，出口量约160万桶/日；二是其毗邻的霍尔木兹海峡，作为全球石 油贸易咽喉要道，日均通过量巨大。"他表示，2025年6月以伊冲突期间布伦特油价因地缘风险带来的溢 价在15美元/桶左右，而本轮自1月初以来的上涨幅度已超10美元/桶，已经接近上一轮冲突的溢价幅 度。 海证 ...

海证期货能化研究员郑梦琦也持相似观点。她表示，2025年6月以伊冲突期间，原油市场对地缘风险的 反应和消退都较为迅速。当前原油市场供需过剩，若伊朗地缘风险并未进一步实质性发酵，其带来的风 险溢价将逐步回落，弱势的基本面会重新压制油价。 尽管地缘事件吸引了市场的绝大部分目光，但分析师们均认为，决定油价中长期走向的基石仍是供需基 本面。从供给端看，上述两位研究员均指出短期存在一些扰动因素，如哈萨克斯坦Tengiz油田的意外停 产、美国极寒天气导致的产量短暂下降等，但这些影响被普遍认为是"暂时的"。郑梦琦表示，美国原油 产量仍处于历史高位，冬季风暴的影响短暂，港口流量已快速恢复。长期来看，OPEC+在一季度结束 后存在潜在的增产预期，全球原油供应预计较为充足。 需求侧则呈现出结构性分化。郑梦琦表示，成品油需求中，柴油相对较强，形成一定支撑，但汽柴油整 体需求相对较弱，"新能源替代旧能源是大势所趋，新能源车销量占比已超过传统燃油车，柴油重卡的 市场份额也在被侵蚀"。她引用国际能源署（IEA）的预测称，2026年汽油和柴油的需求同比增速仅有 0.3%和0.8%，全球原油库存将攀升至相对高位。 郭艳鹏认为供给过剩的大格局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $5,500 per ounce, and the implications for industrial metals like copper, suggesting that the dynamics driving these metals are more complex than traditional sector rotation theories [5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market is experiencing a significant shift, with copper evolving from a purely cyclical commodity to a strategic asset, influenced by macroeconomic changes and geopolitical risks [10][22]. - The weakening credibility of the US dollar, evidenced by its drop to a four-year low, is prompting investors to seek alternatives, with gold being the primary beneficiary of this sentiment [14][18]. - As central banks reconsider their asset allocations in light of dollar instability, copper is increasingly viewed as a strategic resource rather than just a trading commodity [20][21]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, such as military actions in the Middle East and US-European relations, are contributing to a global supply chain restructuring, which heightens the demand for safe-haven assets like gold and introduces a "geopolitical risk premium" into copper prices [23][27]. - The potential for supply disruptions due to political instability in major copper-producing regions (e.g., Chile, Peru, Congo) adds to the urgency of securing copper as a strategic asset [24][25]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Current copper inventories are rising globally, particularly in the London Metal Exchange (LME), due to weakened demand from China and higher domestic prices, leading to a surplus in the market [33][34]. - The phenomenon of "deep contango" in copper prices indicates a supply surplus, with immediate delivery prices significantly lower than future contracts, reflecting a lack of current demand [36]. - Despite short-term supply issues, long-term projections indicate a tightening supply due to insufficient investment in new copper mines and declining ore grades, which could support higher prices in the future [45][48]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that copper's price dynamics will diverge from traditional inventory-driven models, as it begins to incorporate premiums for its strategic importance and inflation hedging capabilities [62]. - In the short term (1-3 months), copper prices are expected to experience volatility, influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events, while the long-term outlook remains bullish due to structural supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles [64][68]. - The interplay between current supply realities and future demand expectations will create a complex pricing environment, necessitating close monitoring of both financial and industrial reports to understand copper's trajectory [74][75].

或受美国总统特朗普加大对伊朗军事威胁消息影响，国际油价连涨三天冲破了四个月高点。 从近期盘面表现来看，1月29日，国际油价收涨超3%，布伦特原油价格收于70.71美元/桶，突破70美元大关。 分析师认为，长期来看，今年的油价仍然存在下调压力。 "最近油价的涨势超出了大家的预期，业内此前并没预判到能涨这么多。"隆众资讯原油分析师李彦今天在接受第一财经记者采访时直 言。 截至1月30日第一财经记者发稿，国际油价有小幅下调，WTI美国原油价格下调1.941%至64.15美元/桶，布伦特原油价格下调1.897%至 68.25美元/桶。 中银国际分析，短期内国际油价面临关税政策与OPEC+增产的压力，但地缘风险溢价、OPEC+的干预能力以及全球需求韧性有望支撑油 价底部；另外，宏观层面的不确定性或将加大油价的波动水平。 李彦认为，主要因素是市场对美伊局势的担忧，由于地缘因素扰动了情绪，业内担心未来原油供应可能出现问题。而次要因素有两个， 一是前段时间的寒潮天气确实导致美国原油的产量下降，另一个是哈萨克斯坦前段时间由于停电故障，部分油田暂时停产，也对油市产 生了影响。 宏观层面，据摩根大通报告，占据哈萨克斯坦近一半产量的 ...

Core Insights - International oil prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical risks and the interplay of soft power dynamics, particularly following Trump's statements regarding military actions towards Iran [1][2][3] - The current oil price situation reflects a struggle between soft power (geopolitical factors) and hard power (inventory and production policies), with soft power currently dominating the market [3][4] Geopolitical Factors - Trump's announcement of a "large fleet heading towards Iran" has heightened concerns over the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to an increase in geopolitical risk premiums [2][3] - The U.S. has increased its naval presence in the Middle East, with six destroyers and additional naval assets deployed, which further escalates tensions in the region [2] Market Reactions - As of January 29, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose by $2.21 to $65.42 per barrel, marking a 3.50% increase, while Brent crude oil futures increased by $2.31 to $70.71 per barrel, a 3.38% rise [2] - The unexpected decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of an increase, has also contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices [2] OPEC's Role - OPEC has maintained its production cut policy, choosing not to increase output despite rising oil prices, which supports the current price levels [1][3] - The strategy of OPEC is seen as a form of "asymmetric soft power," aimed at reinforcing its authority in the industry and undermining the competitiveness of U.S. shale oil [4] Short-term Price Outlook - The short-term outlook for oil prices is expected to remain strong, influenced by geopolitical risks and potential military actions, with any escalation likely to push prices higher [3][4]

Group 1 - Gold prices have surged, breaking the historic threshold of $5,500 per ounce, with silver following suit [1] - The market is buzzing with discussions about "safe-haven," "monetary attributes," and "historical highs" [2] - The situation is different from the typical "sector rotation" or "catch-up" narrative [3] Group 2 - Copper's value has changed, becoming a strategic asset rather than just a cyclical commodity [6][4] - The driving forces behind copper's price changes overlap with those of gold and silver but are more complex [5] - The current market is experiencing a significant shift in perception regarding copper, moving from a "trading commodity" to a "portfolio asset" [17] Group 3 - The macroeconomic backdrop has dramatically changed, leading to a questioning of the dollar's credibility, with the dollar index hitting a four-year low [9] - As trust in the dollar system wavers, investors are seeking alternatives, with gold being the primary beneficiary of this sentiment [10][11] - Copper, priced in dollars, also benefits from the dollar's depreciation, as it becomes more expensive in dollar terms [14][15] Group 4 - Geopolitical risks are rising, impacting both gold and copper, with increased demand for gold as a safe haven during turbulent times [18][20] - The supply of copper is threatened by political and community uncertainties in major copper-producing regions [21][22] - The geopolitical risk premium is being factored into copper prices, adding an "insurance cost" to its valuation [23] Group 5 - The current spot market for copper is weak, with increasing global inventories and a lack of demand from China [28][29] - The significant price difference between spot and futures copper indicates an oversupply in the market [32] - The weak demand reflects a broader issue where the global economy cannot support the current high copper prices [36] Group 6 - The long-term outlook for copper is driven by structural supply issues and a robust demand forecast due to global energy transitions [39][46] - The anticipated demand from electric vehicles and renewable energy projects is expected to significantly increase copper consumption [47][48] - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between weak short-term realities and strong long-term expectations for copper [49] Group 7 - The pricing logic for copper is evolving, moving away from traditional supply-demand dynamics to include strategic resource premiums and inflation hedges [54][55] - Short-term volatility is expected as the market adjusts to current conditions, with potential for significant price fluctuations [56][60] - In the medium to long term, copper is likely to establish its own upward trend, driven by persistent supply challenges and increasing demand [60][62]

若想中长期布局油气板块，投资者可以考虑关注富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350），聚焦美股油 气勘探和生产领域的个股；近2日涨超10%，当前溢价率为8.31%，需关注短期溢价风险。 每日经济新闻 消息面上，美联储维持联邦基金利率在3.5%～3.75%不变，在流动性预期稳定的背景下，能源等顺周期 板块获得强力支撑。 研究机构认为，国际形势动荡加剧，为原油期货注入地缘风险溢价。同时，冬季风暴导致美国原油产量 损失和炼油厂中断情况超预期，加剧空头回补。此外，美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，美国上周原 油库存减少229.5万桶，远低于市场预估的增加184.8万桶，库存意外下降进一步支撑油价。 1月29日，受到国际油价走强、地缘风险溢价上升及美国原油供应扰动等因素影响，标普油气ETF盘中 （513350）狂飙近9%，截至发稿的最新涨幅为5.7%！标的指数成分股中，KOSMOS能源等美股昨夜大 涨。 ...