兄弟们，周四美股休市，今早咱们先来聊聊全球市场的大事。我是帮主郑重，20年财经老炮，专门搞中长线投资的。最近这国际局势真是风起云涌，咱 们得好好捋一捋。 最后聊聊加拿大那边。加拿大警告要提高对美钢铝关税，这明显是在反制美国的贸易政策。贸易摩擦这事儿，对全球供应链的影响可不小，尤其是制造 业。中长线来看，贸易不确定性会压制企业投资，对经济增长可不是什么好事。 好了，今天就聊到这儿。我是帮主郑重，咱们明天接着侃。 先说中东这把火。特朗普说两周内要决定要不要打击伊朗，这消息一出来，全球市场都绷紧了弦。伊朗可是石油出口大国，每天出口量能有200万桶呢。 要是战争真打起来，伊朗石油出口一断，花旗预测油价能涨到75-78美元，高盛更是直接看到90美元。不过兄弟们也别慌，欧佩克+其他国家还有增产潜 力，应该能缓冲一下。但霍尔木兹海峡要是被封锁，那可就麻烦大了，油价搞不好直接破百。所以最近能源板块我一直盯着，这波地缘风险溢价肯定会 反映在股价上。 再看看欧洲那边的情况。欧洲股市已经三连跌了，斯托克欧洲600指数跌了0.8%，英国富时100也跌了0.6%。IMF警告说欧元区经济面临停滞风险，还呼 吁欧盟预算提高50%。欧洲现在 ...

以色列与伊朗冲突升级叠加美国原油库存骤降，国际油价小幅攀升。特朗普透露伊朗主动寻求谈判，暂 缓军事打击，但市场焦虑未消，隐含波动率持续上升。霍尔木兹海峡若中断或推升油价至每桶120美 元，巴克莱警告伊朗出口减半将令布油突破每桶85美元。地缘风险溢价正超越基本面主导油价走势。 邓正红软实力表示，以色列与伊朗冲突持续和上周美国商业原油库存大幅下降，石油软实力保持向上态 势，周三（6月18日）国际油价小幅走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油7月期货 结算价每桶涨0.30美元至75.14美元，涨幅0.40%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油8月期货结算价每桶涨0.25 美元至76.70美元，涨幅0.33%。美国总统特朗普18日表示，伊朗方面已经联系他并甚至表示可以派一个 代表团来白宫进行谈判。特朗普还说，自己此前考虑对伊朗核实施进行军事打击，但尚未作出最终决 定。通过谈判解决伊朗核问题还为时不晚。 分析认为，以色列与伊朗冲突的显著升级可能推动油价大幅上涨。虽然当前市场暂时趋于稳定，但真正 决定走势的将是下一个突发消息。目前隐含波动率持续上升，表明潜在的市场焦虑情绪依然高涨，尽管 这并未完全反映在价格中。石油市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a price range of €67 - 76 [1] Core Viewpoint - Weak demand offsets geopolitical risk premiums, causing the EUA price to continue to decline [1] Key Points from Related Content Market Data - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 74.05 euros/ton (-0.62%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.67 [1] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 74.64 euros/ton (-0.93%), with 25,600 contracts traded (-0.41) [1] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Israel's air - strike on Iran and Iran's counter - attack led to concerns about disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and Middle - East energy infrastructure, causing oil prices to surge over 4%. Austria denied considering resuming imports from Gazprom [1] - **Negative Factors**: Germany's energy minister reiterated Germany's "interest" in future nuclear technologies such as SMR and fusion reactors. OPEC+ will increase production from May to July, and its spare capacity can fill potential supply gaps, reducing investor panic [1] Market Information Tables - **Auction Information**: On June 17, 2025, the EUA auction price was 74.05 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 73.11 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.61, and the auction revenue was 240.33 million euros [1] - **Futures and Spot Information**: On June 17, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 74.64 euros/ton (-0.93%), the trading volume was 25,600 contracts (-0.41), the spot settlement price was 74.41 euros/ton (-0.93%), the spot trading volume was 2,860 contracts (-820), the container shipping carbon cost was 12.74 US dollars/TEU, and the cost - to - freight ratio increased by 0.69% [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: June 19, 2025 [2] Market Conditions - Futures Market: L2509 opened higher, fluctuated upwards during the session, and closed up at 7,418 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan/ton (1.7%), with a trading volume of 430,000 lots and a decrease of 9,972 lots in positions to 431,735 lots. PP2509 closed at 7,214 yuan/ton, up 107 yuan (1.51%), with an increase of 21,500 lots in positions to 477,100 lots [5]. - Spot Market: In the spot market, the price of LLDPE in North China was in the range of 7,330 - 7,480 yuan/ton, in East China 7,400 - 7,800 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,550 - 7,750 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of drawn - wire PP in North China was 7,140 - 7,280 yuan/ton, in East China 7,200 - 7,270 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,150 - 7,330 yuan/ton [5]. Core Viewpoint - Polyolefins are in a stage of strong cost and weak supply - demand game. In the short term, the cost logic supports the upward movement of the polyolefin price center, but downstream demand is difficult to follow up, and the basis of plastics and PP continues to weaken. Attention should be paid to news guidance, and be vigilant against the risk of high - level decline of polyolefins due to the fading of geopolitical risk premium [6]. Industry News - On June 18, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 785,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (1.88%) from the previous working day, compared with 775,000 tons in the same period last year [8]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of easing, and Trump has no intention of nuclear talks with Iran again. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified, and European and American crude oil futures closed up more than 4% again. On June 17, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $74.84 per barrel, up $3.07 (4.28%), with a trading range of $71 - $75.54; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $76.45 per barrel, up $3.22 (4.40%), with a trading range of $72.66 - $77.20 [8][9]. - The PE market price continued to rise. In North China, some linear PE prices increased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure PE prices increased by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure and linear PE prices by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear, low - pressure, and high - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton [9].

智通财经6月18日讯（编辑 冯轶）随着地缘风险的持续，短线市场情绪出现走弱。港股今日继续维持跌势，截至收盘，恒生科技指数收跌1.46%，恒生指 数、国企指数分别下跌1.12%及1.16%，恒指跌近300点。 【大金融普跌拖累大市 恒指连续缩量空头情绪重燃】 盘面上，今日大型科技股及大金融板块普跌，明显拖累大市。科技股方面，美团跌近3.5%，阿里巴巴、百度跌超2%，腾讯、京东均跌1%以上。 | 1 | 800700 | 恒生科技指数 | 5214.41 | -77.44 | -1.46% | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | 03690 | 美团-W | 133.300 | -4.800 | -3.48% | 8144.4亿 | | 3 | 09626 | 哔哩哔哩-W | 160.200 | -4.600 | -2.79% | 659.83亿 | | 4 | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 112.200 | -2.600 | -2.26% | 2.141万亿 | | 5 | 09888 | 百度集团-SW | 83.350 | -1 ...

地缘风险继续推动行情, 等待标志性降温事件 逻辑:以伊冲突下短期地缘溢价继续被市场交易,中期供需过剩 逻辑暂且退场。等待冲突下的标志性降温事件出现,如伊朗同意放弃 轴浓缩确定新谈判时间。 日度技术追踪:原油日线级别中期震荡结构,小时级别短期上涨 结构。今日增仓上行,小时 K 线则尚未转势,短期支撑关注 508一线。 策略上小时周期观望等待短期支撑破位或看到以伊冲突的标志性降 温事件后再逢高空。 图 1.1: 原油 2508 日线图 (二) 苯乙烯: 板块观点汇总 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 農汤 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EB | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PX | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PTA | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PP | 農物 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 塑料 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 甲醇 | 偏多 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EG | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | PVC | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单止 ...

新华财经纽约6月17日电（刘亚南张怡然）以色列与伊朗之间的空袭不断升级，以色列已发出撤离德黑 兰部分地区的警告，引发市场担忧冲突升级，国际油价17日早盘强势盘整，午后涨幅显著扩大，收盘时 国际油价均显著上涨。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨3.07美元，收于每桶74.84美元，涨幅 为4.28%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨3.22美元，收于每桶76.45美元，涨幅为4.4%。 石油巨头壳牌首席执行官瓦埃尔·萨万（Wael Sawan）表示，过去96小时的局势"极其令人担忧"，公司 正在密切评估在中东运营和船运安全。 道达尔能源首席执行官潘彦磊（Patrick Pouyanné）称，若打击延伸至油气设施，"不仅威胁人员安全， 也将冲击全球市场。" 美国普莱斯期货集团高级市场分析师菲尔·弗林（Phil Flynn ）说，"开盘一度飙升后，油价回吐部分涨 幅，因为袭击尚未破坏伊朗出口能力。但特朗普的撤离警告再次点燃风险溢价。"弗林强调，柴油裂解 价差已率先反映供应趋紧，市场需关注成品油领域的进一步波动。 另外，标普全球大宗商品洞察（S&P Global Commodity In ...

Core Insights - The ongoing Middle East conflict has not disrupted oil production, and shipping through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz remains unaffected, indicating a potential easing of hostilities between Iran and Israel, which has led to a decrease in oil prices [1][2][3] - The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a decline of 1.66%, while Brent crude oil dropped by $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, down 1.35% [1] - Iran's willingness to return to nuclear negotiations, contingent on the U.S. refraining from attacks, has alleviated market fears of a prolonged conflict, resulting in a reduction of geopolitical risk premiums [2][3] Market Dynamics - The market sentiment has shifted towards a supply-demand driven pricing model, with expectations that oil prices are unlikely to exceed $80 per barrel, as Western oil companies predict a return to pre-conflict price levels [3][4] - The Trump administration aims to keep oil prices around $50 per barrel to prevent inflation and maintain economic stability, which influences the geopolitical landscape and oil price dynamics [3][4] - A potential oversupply in the oil market is anticipated by the second half of 2025, further exerting downward pressure on prices, especially in light of Iran's signals to resume nuclear talks [4][5] Strategic Implications - The interplay between geopolitical risks and actual supply-demand fundamentals is critical, with current oil price fluctuations reflecting a volatile emotional response rather than structural changes [4][5] - The future trajectory of oil prices will depend on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the Trump administration's strategies to balance inflation control with energy market stability [4][5]

dbg markets发现在全球经济持续紧张局势的阴霾笼罩下艰难前行，能源价格的下行曾被视为少数令人欣 慰的利好因素之一，为经济增长带来些许动力。然而，随着以色列对伊朗目标发动空袭，这一短暂的 "顺风" 迅速转变为阻碍经济发展的 "逆风"，全球经济再次陷入动荡不安的局面。 彭博经济研究分析师韦尔奇（Jennifer Welch）、法拉尔（Adam Farrar）和欧乐鹰（Tom Orlik）进一步 指出，对于美国而言，油价的持续大幅上涨，将与特朗普时期遗留的对等关税政策产生 "共振"，共同 加剧国内的通胀压力。彭博首席美国经济学家安娜・王（Anna Wong）通过严谨的测算表明，若布伦特 原油价格涨至 100 美元 / 桶，美国各标号汽油价格将随之上涨 17%，均价会从 3.25 美元 / 加仑跃升至 4.2 美元 / 加仑，这一价格变动将直接推动 6 月消费者物价指数（CPI）同比涨幅飙升至 3.2%。在后疫 情时代通胀飙升的阴影尚未完全消散，且通胀预期存在脱锚风险的情况下，美联储主席鲍威尔及其同僚 面临着前所未有的艰难挑战，如何在稳定物价与促进经济增长之间找到平衡，成为摆在他们面前的一道 难题。 本周，美 ...

中东冲突升级引爆油价单日暴涨7%，地缘风险溢价与供应过剩博弈下，布伦特原油短期或冲每桶90美 元，极端情形可能飙至每桶120美元。伊朗反击阈值、美国政策困境与欧佩克增产形成三重拉锯，投资 者正面临套期保值的战略窗口期。邓正红软实力表示，以色列对伊朗发动空袭，引发投资者担忧冲突扩 大可能扰乱中东石油供应，地缘溢价放大石油软实力价值，周五（6月13日）国际油价大幅走高。截至 收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油7月期货结算价每桶涨4.94美元至72.98美元，涨幅 7.26%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油8月期货结算价每桶涨4.87美元至74.23美元，涨幅7.02%。中东紧张 局势加剧，伊朗已发动第三波导弹袭击，向以色列方向发射约150枚导弹。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表 示，已摧毁大量伊朗导弹库存和多个核设施；以军称伊朗大不里士的空军基地被完全摧毁。当地时间14 日，以色列急救组织"红色大卫盾"表示，在最新一轮伊朗对以色列的袭击中，有5人受伤。 国际油价成为这次冲突中的"暴风眼"。摩根大通警告称，在极端的地缘政治情况下，尤其是涉及伊朗的 情况下，油价可能会翻倍。尽管中东冲突引发避险情绪飙升，但整体而言，霍尔木兹海 ...