Core Viewpoint - The enthusiasm of public funds for long positions and the resulting profit effect are being directly reflected through the index breakthrough trend, indicating a recovery in market sentiment and a shift towards a broader performance of various thematic funds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46 points, surpassing the previous emotional high of 3674.40 points set on October 8, 2024, marking a new high since December 2021 [1]. - As of August 13, 2025, five actively managed A-share equity funds have achieved a year-to-date performance doubling, with 134 funds showing returns exceeding 60%, and the best-performing fund achieving a return of 1.28 times [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Issuance Trends - The positive performance of the stock market and the recovery of fund performance have led to a surge in the issuance of equity funds, with 26 out of 31 newly launched funds being equity products, accounting for 83.87% of new fund issuances [3]. - The shift towards equity funds is evident as they become the core focus for public fund companies, attracting significant interest from both individual and institutional investors [3][4]. Group 3: Thematic Fund Performance - The performance of thematic funds has diversified, moving away from a few dominant sectors to a broader range of themes, including pharmaceuticals, computing power, robotics, and consumer sectors, with notable returns such as 128.53% for the Great Wall Pharmaceutical Industry Select Fund [2]. - The market is witnessing a new landscape where traditional and emerging themes coexist, with funds focusing on consumer sectors also nearing 100% returns [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Multiple fund companies predict that the breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index will attract incremental capital into the market, suggesting further opportunities ahead [5][6]. - The current market environment, characterized by a positive sentiment and the potential for increased liquidity, is expected to continue driving the market upward, with a focus on technology growth sectors and dividend-yielding stocks [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The public fund's bullish sentiment and profit-making effect are reflected in the breakthrough of the index, indicating a positive trend in the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 13, the A-share market rose significantly, approaching 3700 points, marking a new high since December 2021. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46 points, surpassing the previous emotional high of 3674.40 points from October 2024 [2][3]. - The strong buying support has led to a broad profit-making effect across various theme funds, with over 60 funds achieving returns exceeding 60% year-to-date, and five active equity funds doubling their performance [3]. Group 2: Fund Issuance and Trends - The positive performance of the stock market has stimulated the issuance of public funds, with 26 out of 31 newly launched funds being equity products, accounting for 83.87% of the total [4]. - The popularity of equity funds is evident as bond funds face significant redemptions, indicating a shift in investor preference towards equity products [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Multiple fund companies anticipate that the breakthrough of the index will attract incremental capital, enhancing investor confidence and potentially leading to further market growth [6]. - The market is expected to remain driven by liquidity, with a focus on event-driven and performance-driven trading characteristics during the earnings disclosure period [7].

沪指延续7月以来的单边上涨行情，8月13日早盘越过3674.4点，突破2024年10月8日的高点，创2021年12月 17日以来的新高，此后继续上涨，截至收盘，沪指报3683.46，涨0.48%。 在指数创下近三年新高的同时，两融余额也时隔十年再次回到2万亿元以上水平，并仍持续上升。不少投 资者也担心两融余额突破2万亿元是否意味着市场见顶。 多家机构指出，两融余额重返高位，反映了市场风险偏好有所提升，并不代表市场必然见顶，市场的火热 是流动性宽松与政策预期共振的结果，有机构指出，市场赚钱效应与增量资金流入形成正循环，市场或将 延续上行态势。 两融余额破2万亿元表明投资者信心回升 并不代表市场必然见顶 赚钱效应与增量资金流入形成正循环 市场或将延续上行态势 沪指上一次达到3674是在924行情期间。 除两融余额突破2万亿元外，市场日成交量也逼近2万亿元，显示场内交投活跃。杨德龙指出，新基金发行 量明显回升，去年同期新基金发行困难，而近期单只基金发行额超过10亿元的情况越来越多，这说明市场 赚钱效应已吸引居民储蓄向资本市场转移，带来新的增量资金。 2024年9月24日，央行、证监会、国家金融监管总局等部门联手推出 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The recent market uptrend has been significantly driven by high-risk preference funds such as leveraged funds and private equity funds, while low-risk preference funds are focusing on structural opportunities [1][2][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Active Equity Funds**: There has been a marginal improvement in the issuance and redemption of active equity funds, with July's new issuance reaching 9.7 billion yuan, indicating a recovery from a previous low cycle [3][4]. - **ETF Performance**: Broad-based ETFs faced redemption pressure with a net outflow of 76.7 billion yuan in July, while industry-themed ETFs saw a net inflow of 31.7 billion yuan, particularly in sectors like cyclical, manufacturing, and finance [5]. - **Leverage Funds**: The inflow of leveraged funds has been rapid and significant since July, contributing to the bullish market sentiment [6]. - **Insurance Capital**: Insurance holdings increased significantly, reaching approximately 400 billion yuan in Q1, with the proportion of insurance capital in equity assets rising to 8.4%, the highest since 2022 [8][9]. - **Foreign Investment**: Foreign capital participation in A-shares has been increasing, with net inflows of nearly 20 billion yuan in July, indicating a recovery in market confidence [10]. - **Private Equity Funds**: The management scale and positions of private equity funds have increased significantly, marking them as a crucial source of incremental capital in the current market [11]. - **Retail Investor Participation**: Although the number of new accounts has risen, retail investor confidence remains slow to recover, with institutional investors primarily driving the current market uptrend [12]. - **IPO and Refinance Activity**: There has been a notable increase in IPO and refinancing activities among listed companies, but the pressure on market liquidity remains low compared to previous years [13]. Additional Important Insights - The issuance of floating management fee products has significantly contributed to the recovery of active equity fund issuance, with 22.7 billion yuan from these products in June [4]. - The market has seen three phases of industry-themed ETF growth in 2023, each associated with the TMT technology growth backdrop [5]. - The recent policies have facilitated insurance capital's entry into the market, with a notable increase in the number of stakes taken by insurance funds in listed companies [9].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a broad increase last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, reaching a new high for the year; the Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Component, and ChiNext Index rose by 2.11%, 1.25%, and 0.49% respectively [1] - Key sectors leading the gains included defense and military, non-ferrous metals, and machinery equipment, while pharmaceuticals, computers, retail, and social services experienced declines [1] Upcoming Economic Data - Focus this week includes the release of key economic data such as the US July CPI and PPI, speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, a meeting between US and Russian leaders on August 15, and China's July social financing, retail sales, and industrial output data [1] Investment Strategies - Citic Strategy emphasizes the need for caution in high-valuation sectors, suggesting a focus on five strong industry trends (non-ferrous, communication, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military) while avoiding speculative trading [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy notes that while investor expectations for a bull market remain high, short-term market resistance includes economic slowdown expectations and the need for a clear bull market narrative [3] - Tianfeng Strategy highlights the strong performance of A-shares and the inflow of funds, indicating a potential overheating in market sentiment [4] - Xinda Strategy predicts a bull market phase driven by policy and capital, with expectations of increased retail investment in the stock market [5] - Huaxi Strategy points to diverse sources of incremental capital entering the market, including institutional and retail investors, and anticipates a continued upward trend in A-shares [6] - Xingzheng Strategy discusses the return of active investment in China, with a notable increase in the proportion of actively managed funds outperforming benchmarks [8] - Guotai Junan Strategy suggests that the current bull market is in a mid-stage, with potential for sector rotation and continued upward movement despite short-term resistance [9] - Guosheng Strategy indicates a wait-and-see approach, anticipating a breakthrough in market performance as supply and demand dynamics evolve [10] - Zhongtai Strategy asserts that current market adjustments are due to structural shifts rather than a peak in the market cycle, maintaining a focus on technology and dividend-paying sectors [11]

何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 林晓明 金融工程首席研究员 座机：0755-82080134 邮箱：linxiaoming@htsc.com 今日早参 2025 年 8 月 07 日 今日热点 策略：资金透视：近期公募报会数量回暖 尽管上周后半周市场历经回调，但资金面角度并不需要过分担忧：1）交易 性资金后续仍有支撑，融资余额逆势新高、7 月私募证券投资基金备案数量 创下年内新高；2）公募基金往往是中国资本市场突破平台期的核心力量，7 月中旬以来偏股基金报会数量逐周底部修复，或也将成为后续增量资金的重 要来源；3）长线资金构成了刻画增量资金的另一片拼图，当前配置型外资 单周转为净流入（但仓位尚未明显提升）、险资或稳步入市。 风险提示：1）估算持仓模型失效；2）数据统计口径有误。 研报发布日期：2025-08-06 研究员 何康 SAC:S0570520080004 SFC:BRB318 王伟光 SAC:S0570523040001 今日深度 金工：另类 ETF 配置策略：日内趋势增强——ETF 智投研究系列 之十四 传统的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance recently, with both margin financing and total margin balances reaching over 2 trillion yuan for the first time in a decade, indicating a robust influx of capital and positive market sentiment [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 6, the A-share market continued to rebound, with major indices all rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new closing high for the year at 3633.99 points [1][2]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares reached a historical high of 106.32 trillion yuan as of August 6 [5]. - The trading volume on August 6 was 1.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 143.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with 3357 stocks rising and 77 stocks hitting the daily limit [2][5]. Group 2: Margin Financing - As of August 5, the A-share margin financing balance was reported at 20,002.59 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 19,863.11 billion yuan, both marking over a decade high [1][3]. - The increase in margin financing this year has been significant, with a total increase of 135.68 billion yuan in margin balances since the beginning of the year [3][4]. - The electronic, non-bank financial, and computer sectors have the highest margin financing balances, exceeding 2.29 billion yuan, 1.63 billion yuan, and 1.54 billion yuan respectively [3]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The defense and military sector, along with machinery and coal industries, showed the highest gains, with increases of 3.07%, 1.98%, and 1.89% respectively [2]. - The recent market dynamics indicate a structural upward trend, with active rotation among sectors and stocks, particularly in the humanoid robot and military sectors [2][6]. - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, and defense industries [7].

Group 1 - A-shares' margin trading balance has surpassed 2 trillion yuan for the first time in ten years, reaching 2.0002 trillion yuan as of August 5 [1] - Among the 31 industries classified by Shenwan, 24 have seen an increase in margin trading balance, with the top five industries for net capital inflow being non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, non-bank financials, computers, and electronics [1] - A total of 150 A-share companies have received over 100 million yuan in margin financing since July, with the top ten stocks being Pudong Development Bank, Dongshan Precision, BYD, Zijin Mining, New Era, Pengding Holdings, Zhongji Xuchuang, Zhongyou Capital, Northern Rare Earth, and CITIC Securities [1] Group 2 - The increase in margin trading balance indicates a higher proportion of leverage used by investors, reflecting an optimistic market sentiment and a willingness to take on more risk for greater returns [2] - Historical trends suggest that a rapid rise in margin trading balance often catalyzes accelerated index growth, indicating the potential transition from a "structural bull" to a "full bull" market [2] - Recent market activity has seen a significant inflow of institutional funds, with private equity product registrations exceeding 30 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 125% [2] Group 3 - The upcoming semi-annual reports are expected to confirm the overall improvement in free cash flow for listed companies, reinforcing the rationale for re-evaluating A-shares [3] - There is a strong possibility that A-shares will experience a rebound in August, potentially reaching new highs as the market accumulates profit effects and continues to attract external capital [3]

Market Overview - The military industry index experienced a pullback despite a generally positive market atmosphere, indicating underperformance compared to the broader market [1] - The A-share market saw over 3,900 stocks rise, with a trading volume close to 1.6 trillion yuan, suggesting a strong bullish sentiment [2] Investor Sentiment - New account openings in the A-share market reached 1.96 million in July 2025, marking a 71% year-on-year increase and a 19% month-on-month increase [2] - The current number of new accounts around 200,000 indicates that while there is incremental capital entering the market, the sentiment is not particularly strong, as many investors remain skeptical about the bull market [5] Financing and Leverage - The margin financing balance has reached approximately 1.98 trillion yuan, surpassing previous highs since September 24, but still falling short of the 2015 peak by over 200 billion yuan [6][8] - The current financing balance represents 1.85% of the total market capitalization of 107 trillion yuan, compared to 3.04% during the peak of the 2015 bull market [8] Wealth Migration - The concept of "wealth migration" is being discussed, driven by declining risk-free interest rates and the stock market's profitability, leading individuals to shift deposits into the stock market [9] - The ratio of household deposits to the total market capitalization of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges is currently at a historical high of 1.8%, indicating significant potential for further wealth migration [9] Market Dynamics - The current market rally has been characterized by steady, incremental gains rather than explosive growth, which may contribute to the cautious sentiment among investors [6] - Historical patterns suggest that significant inflows of household deposits into the stock market typically occur after a period of rising stock prices, rather than at the onset of a market rally [11] Investment Opportunities - A new convertible bond, "Microguide Convertible Bond," is set for subscription, with the underlying company focusing on advanced micro and nano-level film deposition equipment for semiconductor clients [14] - The current equity-to-bond yield spread stands at 5.82%, indicating that the overall market offers a higher value proposition compared to 69.44% of historical data [14]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Key funding data remains under pressure, with a notable decline in trading volume, indicating cautious sentiment among investors [2][3] - Key Point 2: The financing and margin trading balance has shown a recent decline, suggesting a slowdown in individual investors' leverage activity [2] - Key Point 3: The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between outflow of margin funds and inflow of new capital, primarily from public funds and asset management products launched in late July [3] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The three major domestic market indices saw a slight rebound, but the underlying data suggests that the downward trend has not been convincingly reversed [2] - Key Point 2: The trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges struggled to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, down from recent peaks of 1.9 trillion yuan, reflecting ongoing investor caution [2] - Key Point 3: The overall market dynamics are influenced more by individual investors' trading data and margin trading balances than by public fund allocations [3]