1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall disturbance to the liability side of the bond market in the fourth quarter is limited. Neither the equity market nor the "relocation" of deposits is sufficient to cause a trend disturbance to the bond market. The repair market in the fourth quarter is expected to continue. The yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond (tax - free) is expected to decline to 1.65% - 1.7%, and the yield of the taxable bond is expected to decline to 1.7% - 1.75% [2][7][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs For the Bond Market, Equity is a High - Odds Variable - Fixed - income and equity products have different risk preferences and corresponding customer risk levels. Even if the equity market rises significantly, the bond market's capital loss is not obvious. Residents participate in the fixed - income market mainly through bank deposits, wealth management products, and fund products [11]. - For wealth management products, after the net - value transformation, they prioritize performance stability and liquidity management. As of September this year, the scale of cash and deposits held by wealth management reached 9.4 trillion, accounting for 27.5%, a record high. The scale of equity assets held remains below 1 trillion, accounting for about 2%. The performance compliance rate is not high, with the overall lower - limit compliance rate at 65% as of September. Thus, fixed - income funds in wealth management are unlikely to flow to equity assets even when the equity market rises [12]. - Public funds are the main drivers of the stock - bond seesaw. In Q3 this year, hybrid and bond funds together increased their stock holdings by about 1.3 trillion to around 6 trillion, a 27.6% increase, and reduced bond holdings by about 2 trillion to around 22 trillion, an 8.2% decrease. "Fixed - income +" funds increased both stock and bond holdings by 0.97 trillion to over 3 trillion, a 45.2% increase. Since Q4, the equity market has been oscillating at a high level. Public funds are expected to prefer a balanced stock - bond allocation rather than significantly increasing risk asset positions [13]. Deposit "Relocation" is Relatively Mild and More Affects the Internal Pricing of the Bond Market - There are two main forms of deposit "relocation": to the equity market and to non - bank institutions due to low deposit interest rates. When deposits move to the equity market, it may drive up the equity market but will not cause the bond market to fall because margin deposits are still within the banking system [26]. - The decline in bank deposit interest rates has made the bank's liability side unstable. Before the central bank announced the resumption of Treasury bond trading, the 1Y AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit yield was above 1.65%. Even with some market speculation, the yield generally remains above 1.6% [29]. - The impact of deposit interest rate cuts on liabilities is relatively mild. Current small and medium - sized bank interest rate cuts are a follow - up to large - bank cuts. Since May this year, the prices of 10 - year Treasury bonds and LPR have not changed significantly, so a new round of deposit interest rate cuts is unlikely to start soon. The "relocation" of funds from deposits to wealth management is mild, and this capital movement is within fixed - income products, which is relatively beneficial to credit bonds [30][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the current economic situation, particularly focusing on CPI and PPI data, indicating a lack of inflation and a need for continued monetary and fiscal policy support [5][6][10] - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, suggesting weak consumer demand and manufacturing prices [1][3] - The article highlights the importance of M1 and M2 monetary supply data, with M2 growing by 8.4% year-on-year and M1 by 7.2%, indicating a narrowing gap between the two, which reflects a shift in liquidity dynamics [6][8][9] Group 2 - The increase in M1 is attributed to a decline in government bond prices, leading individuals to withdraw funds from fixed-term investments and place them into demand deposits [9][10] - In September, household deposits rose by 2.96 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institution deposits fell by 1.06 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of funds returning to banks rather than remaining in investment accounts [10][11] - The article suggests that the current market volatility and lack of clear upward trends in the stock market have led to a decrease in the "money-moving" phenomenon, with investors opting to keep funds in banks [12][13] Group 3 - The article anticipates that as the stock market stabilizes and begins to rise, there will be a renewed influx of deposits into the market, driven by improved investor sentiment [14][15] - It discusses the government's intention to stimulate the capital market to help escape the current economic stagnation and achieve asset price recovery [16][18] - The upcoming key events, including trade negotiations and monetary policy decisions, are expected to influence market movements, necessitating strategic asset allocation in anticipation of these developments [20][21]

Market Performance Review - The major stock indices showed mixed performance in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85% while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 1.10% and 1.56% respectively [3][12] - By style, stable style increased by 3.40%, financial style by 2.44%, while consumer style decreased by 0.83% and growth style fell by 1.56% [3][12] - The market experienced increased volatility due to internal and external political factors, with a technical correction in early October followed by a rebound due to favorable political developments [4][12] Industry Insights - Resource sectors led the gains, with coal rising by 10.02%, steel by 5.16%, and non-ferrous metals by 5.00%. Conversely, the media and automotive sectors saw declines of -6.04% and -3.58% respectively [16][17] - The market rotation was evident, with funds shifting from the previously leading TMT sectors to resource sectors, driven by supply disruptions in coal and steel production [16][17] Future Outlook and Investment Views - The report anticipates a "windless zone" for the A-share market in November, with limited political support and a focus on macroeconomic fundamentals and corporate earnings [4][30] - Investment strategies should focus on policy themes and high-performing stocks, particularly in sectors like commercial aviation and low-altitude economy, as previous leaders face pressure [5][31] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The dynamic HMM timing model indicates a current market correction risk, suggesting a re-entry signal for investors [18][20] - Personal investor sentiment showed slight recovery, with the sentiment index at -3.51% as of October 31, indicating significant volatility without a clear trend [22][26] Dividend Yield Analysis - The analysis of dividend yield suggests that bank stocks, which have seen significant price increases, may now offer less attractive value due to high previous gains [27][29] - The current bank dividend yield is under scrutiny, with a necessary increase in cash dividend payout to maintain adequate compensation for risk [27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The ultimate goal of investment and financial management is to make money, but many ordinary individuals are concerned about the potential loss of principal [4]. Group 1: Types of Investments - The article categorizes investments into three types based on the safety of principal: very safe, likely safe, and likely unsafe [6][7]. Category 1: Very Safe Principal - Suitable for individuals who can accept returns that may not outpace inflation and prioritize extreme safety [9]. - **Savings**: Keeping money in the bank, which is becoming less popular due to declining interest rates [11]. - **Government Bonds**: Lending money to the government with the expectation of receiving principal and interest at maturity, with returns similar to bank savings [12]. Category 2: Likely Safe Principal - This category introduces some volatility to investments [13]. - **Money Market Funds**: A convenient tool for managing idle cash, primarily investing in government bonds and short-term financial instruments, with low risk [16]. - **Low-Risk Bank Wealth Management**: Banks invest in stable assets like bonds and deposits, generally offering higher returns than the previous categories [19]. - **Bond Funds**: These funds invest in various bonds, with risks primarily associated with credit bonds, which can lead to potential losses if the fund manager makes poor investment choices [25][28]. Category 3: Likely Unsafe Principal - This category involves a significant risk of principal loss [31]. - **Stocks and Stock Funds**: These assets shift the focus from bonds to stocks, resulting in fundamentally different risk profiles, with stock fund volatility potentially reaching 20% or more [33][34]. - **Fixed Income Plus Funds**: These funds typically allocate around 80% to bonds for stable returns while using 20% for higher-risk investments, providing a balance between risk and return [36]. Group 2: Performance Insights - During the significant market adjustments in 2022, equity funds averaged a decline of over 20%, while high-quality fixed income plus products maintained maximum drawdowns generally within 5% [39]. - Long-term, stable fixed income plus funds typically yield annual returns in the range of 3%-6%, effectively achieving lower losses during downturns while keeping pace during upswings [40]. Group 3: Summary Recommendations - For extremely conservative investors, options include bank savings and government bonds [42]. - For those willing to accept slight risks, money market funds, bank wealth management, and bond funds are recommended, with expected returns in the order of money market funds < bank wealth management = bond funds [42]. - For investors who can tolerate significant risks, stocks and stock funds are suitable [42]. - For those seeking stability without settling for low returns, fixed income plus funds are advised [42].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has been active and leading globally in 2023, driven by asset revaluation narratives and structural opportunities in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside active liquidity [2][10]. Market Activity - The overall market activity has significantly increased, with an average trading volume of 257.9 billion HKD from the beginning of the year, nearly doubling from 131.8 billion HKD in 2024 [2]. - Southbound capital has surged, with a daily inflow of 6.42 billion HKD in Q3, almost double the average of 3.47 billion HKD for the entire year of 2024, totaling 1.26 trillion HKD by the end of October, a record high for the year [2][3]. Foreign Capital Dynamics - There has been a partial return of overseas funds, with passive funds significantly flowing into the market, while active funds have shown a mixed trend [5][10]. - Despite a net outflow of 9.74 billion USD from Hong Kong stocks by overseas active funds, the outflow has narrowed compared to 11.25 billion USD in the same period of 2024 [10]. - The allocation of overseas active funds to the Chinese market has increased to 7.2%, indicating a recovery in interest [10][11]. Southbound Capital Trends - Southbound capital has become a crucial support for the Hong Kong market, with a cumulative inflow of 1.26 trillion HKD, surpassing the total for 2024 and setting a new annual record since the launch of the Stock Connect [26]. - The daily trading volume of southbound capital has stabilized around 30%, reflecting its growing influence on the Hong Kong market [26][28]. Institutional and Individual Investor Dynamics - Active public funds have seen their holdings in Hong Kong stocks increase from 25.7% to 30.8%, but they are not the main drivers of southbound capital [28]. - Passive public funds have significantly increased their holdings, rising from 30.4% to approximately 41.9%, indicating a stronger trend towards passive investment strategies [31]. - Individual investors have shown a notable increase in participation, with a significant inflow into Hong Kong stock ETFs, reflecting a trend of "deposit migration" [41]. Future Outlook - The potential for further inflows from institutional investors appears limited, with estimates suggesting a possible increase of 4.5 to 6 billion HKD from active public and insurance funds [39]. - Individual investors' inflow into Hong Kong stocks could reach approximately 120 billion HKD in Q4, depending on market conditions and investor sentiment [42].

2025年10月30日，商务部新闻发言人就中美吉隆坡经贸磋商联合安排答记者问介绍了中美经贸团队通过吉隆坡磋商达成的成果共识 [1]。主要包括关税、出口管制、航运附加费等内容，我们认为，中美吉隆坡磋商的成果共识有助于稳定经贸关系，改善我国外循环， 也会降低市场风险溢价。中金公司总量（宏观、策略、外汇）以及行业（交运、大宗商品、科技、有色、互联网、纺服、家电）为您联 合解读。 2025.10.30 | 中金公司研究部 02 中金研究 CICC Research 宏观走势和投资机会——简评"十五五"规划建议 中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 中金研究 CICC Research 联合解读中美经贸磋商成果 >>点击图片查看全文<< >>点击图片查看全文<< 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》及说明发布[2]，对"十五五"的地位、方针、目标、任 务等问题做了系统阐述。"十五五"具有承前启后的重要地位，达到2035年远景目标需要增长保持在合理区间。在经济新旧动能转换、地 缘冲突易发多发等背景下，未来五年供给侧创新要求更高，百尺竿头更进一步，更注重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on "stabilizing scale and optimizing structure" to address challenges such as "deposit migration" and narrowing interest margins, while also seizing opportunities in the capital market to boost income from wealth management and custody services [1][2]. Deposit Management - As of the end of September, the total deposit scale of the company reached 5.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 302.4 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [2]. - The interest rate on deposits for the first three quarters was 1.71%, down 5 basis points from the first half of the year [2]. - The company plans to stabilize deposit scale by controlling the growth of high-cost deposits and enhancing customer engagement to increase low-cost transaction deposits [2]. Interest Income and Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for the first three quarters was 1.72%, a decrease of 10 basis points compared to the same period in 2024 [3]. - The interest income for the first three quarters was 1,109.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.56%, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.96 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3]. Non-Interest Income Growth - The company achieved net fee and commission income of 200.81 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 3.79% [4]. - Wealth management sales revenue reached 4.2 billion yuan, growing by 7.7% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in the capital market [4]. - Credit card income saw a reduced decline, with a total of 6.7 billion yuan in intermediary income, benefiting from integrated customer acquisition strategies [4]. Risk Management - As of the end of September, the non-performing loan balance was 645.60 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08%, reflecting a slight increase from the end of the previous year [7]. - The company reported a significant reduction in new non-performing assets in key areas such as real estate and credit cards, indicating improved risk management [8]. - The company expects a decrease in new non-performing loans for the year, maintaining a stable and controllable asset quality [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant investment opportunities in China as highlighted by the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the strategic focus on technology, consumption, green initiatives, and security as key investment themes for global capital [3][14]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a guiding framework for China's development over the next five years, attracting global capital interest [14]. - Experts agree that the shift from "going out" to becoming "global enterprises" represents a major investment opportunity, with Chinese companies achieving world-leading capabilities in industrial and technological sectors [14]. - The demand for risk asset allocation has notably increased, as evidenced by the rapid growth of multi-asset allocation strategies [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The relationship between Hong Kong and A-share markets is characterized by a complementary and mutually beneficial development pattern, with Hong Kong's ECM financing reaching $76 billion since 2025, making it the largest globally [12]. - The current bull market is transitioning from being liquidity-driven to being supported by institutional reforms and fundamental improvements [12]. - The "capital bridge" strategy is emphasized, showcasing the role of foreign institutions in facilitating cross-border investments and enhancing market connectivity [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The decline of "American exceptionalism" is prompting global capital to focus on China, with concerns about U.S. fiscal deficits and regulatory uncertainties [6]. - The strategic partnership between foreign and Chinese financial institutions is crucial for promoting the development of capital markets and enhancing financial infrastructure connectivity [10]. - A clear and sustainable planning approach is highlighted as a unique advantage for both enterprises and governments, reinforcing the attractiveness of the Chinese market [15]. Group 4: Recommendations for Investors - Experts recommend a long-term investment philosophy to navigate market volatility, advocating for diversified strategies to mitigate risks [16]. - The low percentage of stock allocation among Chinese households (11%) indicates significant potential for growth in equity investments [16]. - The emphasis on consumer spending and the creation of new consumption scenarios is seen as a key driver for economic growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [15].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant impact of the recent interest rate cuts by major banks, leading to a substantial outflow of deposits and a surge in bank wealth management products [1] - The "fixed income plus" (固收+) products have emerged as a preferred investment solution in a low-interest-rate environment, combining stable returns with growth potential [3][4] Group 1: Industry Trends - In May, the five major banks simultaneously lowered deposit rates, resulting in a net decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan in household deposits within two months [1] - Bank wealth management scale increased by approximately 2 trillion yuan month-on-month, reaching 32.67 trillion yuan, significantly exceeding historical averages [1] - Zhongyin Wealth Management has shown remarkable performance, with a net increase of over 170 billion yuan in a single month, positioning itself among the top wealth management subsidiaries [1] Group 2: Product Development - "Fixed income plus" products are designed to provide stable returns through a combination of fixed income assets and a portion allocated to higher-risk assets like stocks and commodities [3] - Zhongyin Wealth Management's "Stable Wealth Fixed Income Enhancement" series allocates over 80% to fixed income assets while cautiously investing 20% in equities and other assets to enhance overall returns [3] - The company has developed a diverse product matrix, including passive stock index tracking strategies, pension finance products, and global allocation strategy products to meet various investor needs [4] Group 3: Investment Guidance - Investors are advised to focus on three core dimensions when selecting "fixed income plus" products: asset allocation ratio, historical performance of strategies, and the capabilities of the management team [5] - The asset allocation ratio between fixed income and enhanced assets directly influences the risk-return profile of the product [5] - The future outlook for the bond market is positive, but volatility in equity assets remains, suggesting that a "long-term hold" strategy may be a prudent choice [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the "deposit shift" boosted the scale of bank wealth management to grow beyond expectations. The market is dominated by fixed - income wealth management products, but hybrid products showed significant growth momentum. The scale of "fixed - income +" wealth management products also increased [1][12][18]. - In Q3 2025, cash and bank deposits were increased on the asset side, and the proportion of bonds decreased. The leverage ratio of wealth management products dropped to a recent low [24][25]. - In the future, the scale of bank wealth management is expected to continue growing due to the "comparison effect" caused by the decline in deposit interest rates. The wealth management industry needs to build a more refined and systematic asset allocation and risk management system [2][27][30]. - In the short term, credit bonds may fluctuate under the influence of factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, the new public fund fee policy, and the stock - bond seesaw. The short - to - medium - term credit bonds still have allocation value, and long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may have room for spread compression [3][39]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Q3 Bank Wealth Management Market Observation 3.1.1 Liability Side - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total market wealth management product scale was 32.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.42%, and a single - quarter increase of 1.46 trillion yuan in Q3, higher than the same period in history [12]. - The year - on - year growth of wealth management scale deviated from the weekly high - frequency data of Puyi Standard. The large growth in wealth management scale in Q3 with a general performance in the bond market was due to the mismatch between wealth management asset allocation and the bond market structure. Wealth management mainly held short - term credit bonds [15]. - Fixed - income wealth management products dominated the market, while hybrid products showed significant growth in Q3. The scale of "fixed - income +" wealth management products reached 17.83 trillion yuan, accounting for 57.8% of the total wealth management scale [18]. - The proportion of wealth management products of wealth management companies increased quarter by quarter, exceeding 90% at the end of Q3 [20]. 3.1.2 Asset Side - As of the end of Q3 2025, the proportion of cash and bank deposits rose to 27.5%, and the proportion of bonds, the largest allocated asset, decreased to 40.4%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the end of Q2 [24]. - The leverage ratio of wealth management products dropped to 106.65%, a year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.84 and 0.8 percentage points respectively [25]. 3.1.3 Summary and Outlook - In Q3 2025, the bank wealth management market performed well, with a strong year - on - year scale growth. Fixed - income products contributed the largest scale increment, and the layout of equity - related products increased [26]. - In the future, the scale of bank wealth management is expected to grow, and the wealth management industry needs to build a more refined and systematic asset allocation and risk management system [27][30]. 3.2 Credit Bond Yield Overview - From October 20 - 24, 2025, credit bond yields mostly declined. Non - financial credit bonds performed better than financial bonds, and long - term non - financial credit bonds performed better than short - to - medium - term ones [4][31]. - In terms of different varieties, the yields of urban investment bonds all declined, with long - term bonds performing better. The yields of most industrial bonds declined, and the overall performance was weaker than that of urban investment bonds. The yields of most financial bonds increased [31][32]. 3.3 Primary Market 3.3.1 Issuance Volume - From October 20 - 24, 2025, the credit bond issuance scale increased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, and the net financing scale increased quarter - on - quarter and decreased year - on - year. The net financing scale of urban investment bonds and financial bonds increased quarter - on - quarter, while that of industrial bonds decreased [43]. 3.3.2 Issuance Cost - The average credit bond issuance interest rate decreased quarter - on - quarter. The average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds and financial bonds decreased by 0.8bp and 10bp respectively, while that of urban investment bonds increased by 1.3bp [50]. 3.3.3 Issuance Term - The average credit bond issuance term increased quarter - on - quarter. The average issuance terms of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased by 0.19 years, 0.04 years, and 0.04 years respectively [51]. 3.3.4 Cancellation of Issuance - From October 20 - 24, 2025, the number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances increased quarter - on - quarter [52]. 3.4 Secondary Market 3.4.1 Trading Volume - Except for the decline in the trading volume of bank perpetual bonds and insurance sub - bonds, the trading volume of other credit bond varieties rebounded. The trading volume of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased by more than 100 billion yuan [59]. 3.4.2 Trading Liquidity - The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all decreased. For urban investment bonds, the turnover rate of bonds with a term of less than 1 year decreased the most; for industrial bonds, the turnover rates of bonds with terms of less than 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and more than 10 years decreased; for financial bonds, the turnover rates of bonds with terms of 3 - 5 years and 5 - 7 years decreased, while others increased [61]. 3.4.3 Spread Tracking - Except for a slight 1bp widening of the 10 - year AAA - rated urban investment bonds, the spreads of other urban investment bonds narrowed. The 7 - year bonds had the largest narrowing amplitude, up to 10bp [68]. - Except for the widening of the spread of AAA - rated automobile industry in industrial bonds, the spreads of other industries narrowed. The average narrowing amplitude of AAA - rated industrial bonds was slightly smaller than that of AA - rated ones [73]. - The spreads of bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds mostly narrowed, and the spreads of securities firm sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds also mostly narrowed [74][75]. 3.5 Weekly Hot Bonds Overview - The top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores were selected for investors' reference [78]. 3.6 Credit Rating Adjustment Review - According to domestic rating agencies, there were no bond rating adjustments last week [83].