Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The macro - risk is temporarily controllable, and the polyester industry chain rebounds after a decline. The US - China tariff war affects the market, causing crude oil to fall and then rebound. The PTA futures are affected by the crude oil price movement [2][3]. - The supply - demand situation of different products in the polyester industry chain varies. PX's fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook weakens; PTA has short - term improved fundamentals but long - term inventory accumulation pressure; PF has a short - term good supply - demand situation; and PR faces supply - demand pressure with new device production [3][4][5]. - The recommended strategies are to cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on a unilateral basis, go long on PF processing fees at low prices in cross - variety trading, and conduct reverse arbitrage on PX/PTA2601 - 2605 in cross - period trading [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [11][12][14]. Upstream Profit and Spread - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][24]. International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Cover the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Illustrate the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX in China and Asia [29][32][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Present PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipts of PTA, PX, and PF [37][40][41]. Downstream Polyester Load - Show the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, various factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][59]. PF Detailed Data - Provide information on PF's 1.4D physical and equity inventories, polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, and related indicators of regenerated cotton - type short - fibers, pure polyester yarns, and polyester - cotton yarns [70][72][80]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and month - to - month spreads [91][95][98].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group is engaging in commodity futures hedging to lock in raw material costs and pig prices, thereby mitigating price volatility risks [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company has initiated a commodity futures hedging business to manage risks associated with raw material costs and pig prices [1] - A resolution was passed by the board and shareholders to limit the maximum margin usage to 300 million yuan until the annual shareholders' meeting in 2025 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - From January 1 to September 30, 2025, the company has confirmed an investment income of approximately 61.034 million yuan, which accounts for 17.65% of the previous year's audited net profit attributable to the parent company [1] - The current volatility in agricultural product prices aligns the scale of the business with the company's situation, ensuring it does not affect daily operations [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Cost - end**: This week, oil prices fluctuated weakly. After the National Day, China's import demand slowed down while US exports increased, and Middle - East exports also rose, leading to an oversupply situation. The re - fermentation of the China - US tariff war on Friday caused a sharp drop in crude oil prices [1]. - **PX**: China's PX operating rate was 87.4% (up 1.0% week - on - week), and Asia's was 79.9% (up 0.8% week - on - week). China's PX load has recovered to a relatively high level, and overseas restarts and capacity expansion have weakened the Q4 supply - demand outlook and support [1]. - **PTA**: China's PTA operating rate was 74.4% (down 2.4% week - on - week), and the spot processing fee was 199 yuan/ton. The increase in maintenance plans has narrowed the inventory accumulation in the near - term, but the new device commissioning in December may lead to high inventory pressure. Demand improvement needs to be observed [2]. - **PF**: The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber operating rate was 94.3% (down 1.1% week - on - week). After the holiday, the load decreased slightly. The short - term supply - demand situation is better than the raw material end, and the processing fee is expected to remain high [3]. - **PR**: The bottle - chip factory operating rate (based on maximum capacity) was 72.4% (+0.4%), and the inventory was 16.8 days (up 2.1 days week - on - week). The processing fee rebounded to around 500 yuan. The short - term load change is limited, and the supply - demand pressure is large after the new device commissioning [4]. - **Strategy**: - **Single - side**: Consider short - hedging PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies. - **Cross - variety**: Go long on PF processing fees at low levels: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. - **Cross - period**: Reverse spread PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - The report presents various price and spread charts, including TA, PX, PF, and PR contract price trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as processing fees and other related data [8][10][11][12][16] PX and PTA Supply - China's PX load and Asia's PX load are shown, along with PTA load data from China, South Korea, and Taiwan, reflecting the supply situation of PX and PTA [46][47][52] Inventory - It includes PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and the inventory data of PTA and PX warehouse receipts, showing the inventory status of related products [55][60][63] Demand - Charts show the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and the operating rates of various downstream industries such as weaving, texturing, and dyeing, reflecting the demand situation [65][69][71] PF Supply - Demand - Inventory - It presents the load of polyester staple fibers, factory inventory days, and the operating rates and profits of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, showing the supply - demand - inventory situation of PF [87][91][93] PR Supply - Demand - Inventory - It shows the load of polyester bottle - chips, factory inventory days, and processing fees and export profits, reflecting the supply - demand - inventory situation of PR [106][108][110]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Sino-US trade war has dragged down the entire chemical sector. For pure benzene, although the port inventory has decreased after the holiday and downstream提货 is okay, there are still doubts about the long - term procurement sustainability of some downstream products, and the concentrated maintenance of styrene in late October will drag down the demand. Overseas, the pressure of South Korean pure benzene being shipped to China has increased, and the driving force for continuous destocking is not strong. - For styrene, the port inventory has slightly accumulated again after the holiday, and the inventory pressure persists. The downstream提货 performance is still average. The supply side has some devices under maintenance, but there are also new device startups. Overseas demand is weak, and the import pressure from Europe and the US to China will increase. Styrene inventory pressure continues. - The strategy includes short - selling BZ and EB on rallies for hedging, and doing reverse spreads on the EB2511 - EB2512 spread on rallies [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and Styrene Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - period Spreads No specific data or analysis content provided other than the figure names, such as "Pure Benzene Main Futures Contract", "Pure Benzene East China Spot Price", etc. [10][11] 2. Styrene Supply - East China styrene arrival volume is 39,200 tons (+ 0.09), and the port提货 volume is 34,800 tons (+ 0.75). - Styrene plant operating rate is 73.61% (+ 2.37%), with East China at 68.07% (+ 2.72%), Shandong at 75.54% (+ 0.43%), and South China at 82.70% (+ 7.62%) [1]. 3. Styrene Downstream Demand - EPS operating rate is 40.74% (- 2.37%), PS operating rate is 54.60% (- 1.70%), ABS operating rate is 72.50% (+ 1.50%), UPR operating rate is 20.00% (- 8.00%), and butadiene - styrene rubber operating rate is 70.40% (+ 0.03%). - EPS sample enterprise inventory is 30,500 tons (- 800), PS sample enterprise inventory is 108,700 tons (+ 19,340), ABS sample enterprise inventory is 251,000 tons (+ 7,400), and butadiene - styrene rubber sample enterprise inventory is 20,500 tons (+ 0) [1]. 4. Styrene Inventory - Styrene East China port inventory is 201,900 tons (+ 4,400), and styrene plant inventory is 193,863 tons (- 9,411) [1]. 5. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - Pure benzene East China port inventory is 91,000 tons (- 15,000). - Pure benzene operating rate is 79.29% (+ 0.55%), and hydro - benzene operating rate is 63.24% (- 0.75%) [2]. 6. Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - Non - styrene downstream: Caprolactam operating rate is 96.00% (+ 0.00%), phenol - acetone operating rate is 78.00% (- 1.00%), aniline operating rate is 77.16% (+ 1.12%), and adipic acid operating rate is 66.90% (+ 4.00%). - CPL industry chain: Caprolactam CPL operating rate is 96.00% (+ 0.00%), CPL plant inventory is 50,000 tons (+ 0.00); PA6 operating rate is 78.21% (+ 2.17%), PA6 conventional spinning plant inventory days is 7.00 days (+ 0.00 days); nylon filament operating rate is 78.00% (+ 0.00%), nylon filament plant inventory days is 34.50 days (+ 0.00 days). - Phenol - acetone industry chain: Phenol - acetone operating rate is 78.00% (- 1.00), Jiangyin phenol port inventory is 7,000 tons (+ 1,000), Jiangyin acetone port inventory is 30,500 tons (+ 7,500); bisphenol A operating rate is 74.67% (+ 1.22); PC operating rate is 80.92% (- 2.50), epoxy resin operating rate is 50.89% (+ 1.13). - Aniline industry chain: Aniline operating rate is 77.16% (+ 1.12); polymer MDI operating rate is 96.00% (+ 0.00), polymer MDI plant inventory is 72,000 tons (+ 0.00), pure MDI operating rate is 96.00% (+ 0.00), pure MDI plant inventory is 7,000 tons (+ 0.00). - Adipic acid industry chain: Adipic acid operating rate is 66.90% (+ 4.00); spandex operating rate is 77.50% (+ 0.00), spandex plant inventory days is 50.00 days (+ 0.00); PA66 operating rate is 60.45% (- 0.82); polyurethane elastomer operating rate is 53.50% (+ 1.21) [2][3].

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/10/10 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1400 | 31.16% | 81.8% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1500 | 22.56% | 26.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | 库 | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 | FG2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 1400 | | | 存 | 产成品库存偏 高，担心 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China - US negotiations. The market will remain in a narrow bottom - range oscillation until actual Chinese purchase orders emerge. The short - term impact of the quarterly inventory report during the holiday is neutral, and attention should be paid to whether the October USDA report will adjust the previous yield. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is recovering, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upside of the domestic soybean complex is constrained by high near - term inventory, and the domestic market is expected to be under pressure, but there are opportunities for long - position valuation repair supported by costs. The domestic rapeseed complex is mainly affected by China - Canada negotiation results and is influenced by supply recovery expectations and soybean meal in the short term [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for far - month contracts due to supply - demand gaps, and the Brazilian export premium supports far - month contract prices from the cost side. However, the near - term supply is high, with high port and oil - mill inventories of imported soybeans in China, increasing oil - mill crushing volumes, and a seasonal inventory build - up trend for soybean meal. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal but is slightly stronger. After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure on soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, making the near - term supply pressure the dominant factor in the market [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2350 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.6% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - For feed mills with low inventory and wanting to purchase based on orders, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 2939 | 11 | 0.38% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2755 | 17 | 0.62% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2863 | 16 | 0.56% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2435 | 14 | 0.58% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2334 | 17 | 0.73% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2415 | 12 | 0.5% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1029.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1527 | 0.0096 | 0.13% | [6][8] 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 184 with a daily change of - 6, and the RM01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 101 with a daily change of - 3. - The M05 - 09 spread of soybean meal is - 108 with a daily change of 1, and the RM05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal is - 81 with a daily change of 5. - The M09 - 01 spread of soybean meal is - 76 with a daily change of 5, and the RM09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal is - 20 with a daily change of - 2. - The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2950 with a daily change of 10, and the basis is 11 with a daily change of - 1. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2540 with no daily change, and the basis is 105 with no daily change. - The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 with a daily change of 10, and the futures price spread is 504 with a daily change of - 3 [9]. 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4471.4503 | - 32.1737 | 0.031 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3975.71 | 67.65 | 65.91 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 727.0651 | - 12.6593 | - 12.0831 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 622.9153 | - 32.1737 | - 44.9143 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 30.936 | - 5.1388 | - 0.2864 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 1027 | 29 | 188 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 1247 | 49 | 211 | [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of special steel wire ropes, catering to various industries such as elevators, construction machinery, ports, marine engineering, and shipping, establishing a strong brand reputation in the steel wire rope sector [1] Production and Sales Situation - The company adopts a sales-driven production model, coordinating production and raw material procurement based on market orders [2] - The company has a robust annual order volume, with a production cycle of 40 days from raw material input to finished product output [3][4] - The average monthly raw material usage is 3,500 tons, with an annual usage of approximately 40,000 tons, and a delivery cycle of one week [3][4] - The pricing model for raw materials is based on "wire rod price + processing fee," referencing the benchmark price published by Shagang on the first of each month [3][4] - The finished product, steel wire rope, is priced at approximately 10,000 yuan per ton, with a monthly average sales volume of 4,000 tons, leading to an annual sales volume of 48,000 tons [4] Inventory Management - The company maintains a raw material inventory cycle of 30 days, corresponding to a stock of 3,000 tons, and a finished product inventory cycle of 80 days, corresponding to a stock of 10,000 tons [5][4] Risk Exposure Analysis - The company faces two main price risk exposures: rising raw material costs due to increasing wire rod prices and the devaluation risk of raw material and finished product inventories during price declines [6] Futures Hedging Strategy - In response to declining steel demand and prices, the company can implement futures selling hedges for its finished product inventory and buying hedges for raw materials during price rebounds [7][10] - The company is advised to use rebar futures for hedging due to the stable price difference with wire rods [10] Price Volatility Characteristics - Historical price trends indicate that rebar prices fluctuate significantly, typically within a range of 30% to 40% annually, allowing for potential profits of 500 to 800 yuan per ton if half of the volatility is captured [11] Futures Hedging Backtesting - Backtesting of futures hedging strategies from 2023 to 2024 shows a total capital usage of 16 million yuan, with cumulative hedging gains of 8.27 million yuan, resulting in a total return rate of 52% [13] Inventory Selling Hedge - The inventory selling hedge strategy is designed to minimize losses from inventory depreciation, achieving a reduction of 4.86 million yuan in potential losses during the hedging period [17] Raw Material Buying Hedge - The raw material buying hedge strategy is projected to increase profits by 3.41 million yuan, equating to an additional profit of 487 yuan per ton [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - New grain seasonal supply is abundant, putting pressure on spot prices later; soybean No. 1 futures are supported by short - covering, leading to a second - day rebound; the resumption of auctions increases market supply pressure, and attention should be paid to transaction volume [4]. - There are potential policy support and short - covering factors that are favorable, while the resumption of auctions is a negative factor [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Prediction - The price range prediction for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [3]. 3.2 Risk Strategies - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long spot positions such as planting entities with high autumn harvest selling needs and facing short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short soybean No. 1 futures (A2511) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is in the range of 4000 - 4050; also, sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio when the option price is in the range of 30 - 50 to increase the selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium - term, focus on forward procurement management, and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter, with long positions in A2603 and A2605 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions and Market Analysis - **Core Contradictions**: New grain supply is seasonally abundant, pressuring spot prices; futures are supported by short - covering; the resumption of auctions intensifies supply pressure [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: On September 25, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on increasing the large - scale yield per unit of grain and oil crops and "Three Autumn" production, which may lead to relevant policies; the short - side of the 11 - contract continued to reduce positions significantly, supporting the futures price to rebound continuously; the acquisition demand driven by the return - grain operation in the first half of 2025 provided phased support to the market [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: On September 26, 2025, the e - commerce platform of Sinograin organized a domestic soybean auction with a sales volume of 19349 tons, and Liangda.com planned two auctions on the same day, increasing the pressure on the spot market [4]. 3.4 Price Changes - From September 24 to September 25, 2025, the closing prices of soybean No. 1 contracts (11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09) all increased, with daily increases ranging from 0.38% to 0.56% [4][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic. There are policy and cost - increase expectations for the far - month contracts, which cannot be falsified yet. The near - term reality is average, and the mid - stream's inventory - reduction ability during the peak season needs to be observed [2]. - For glass, supply disruptions are emerging again, and expectations are leading. Glass prices are prone to rise and hard to fall, but the high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit price increases. The near - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. From a valuation perspective, there are still profits in coal - gas and petroleum - coke production lines. The cumulative apparent demand from January to September is estimated to decline by 6% - 6.5%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [4]. - For纯碱, market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing price volatility. The second - phase ignition of Yuangxing has entered the test - run stage, and the long - term supply pressure continues. The rigid demand for replenishment in the middle and lower reaches is the main factor, and the pressure on alkali factories has been somewhat relieved. The long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and the inventory of finished products has been reduced. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable, and the heavy - soda balance remains in surplus. In August, soda ash exports exceeded 200,000 tons, which alleviated domestic pressure to some extent [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price monthly forecast is in the range of 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.42% and a historical percentile of 83.6% over three years. Soda ash price monthly forecast is in the range of 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.39% and a historical percentile of 25.7% over three years [1]. 3.2 Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Glass Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, short - sell FG2601 glass futures at 50% ratio with an entry point of 1400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell FG601C1400 call options at 50% ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low, buy FG2601 glass futures at 50% ratio with an entry range of 1100 - 1150 to lock in procurement costs. Sell FG601P1100 put options at 50% ratio with an entry range of 50 - 60 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. 3.2.2 Soda Ash Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, short - sell SA2601 soda ash futures at 50% ratio with an entry range of 1550 - 1600 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell SA601C1500 call options at 50% ratio with an entry range of 50 - 60 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low, buy SA2601 soda ash futures at 50% ratio with an entry range of 1200 - 1250 to lock in procurement costs. Sell SA601P1200 put options at 50% ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. 3.3 Glass and Soda Ash Price and Market Data 3.3.1 Glass - **Futures Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1372, down 11 (- 0.8%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1436, down 10 (- 0.69%); the 01 contract was 1252, down 18 (- 1.42%) [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1225, up 20.4 from the previous day. Different regions had different price changes, with some remaining stable and some rising slightly [6]. 3.3.2 Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1384, down 20 (- 1.42%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1439, down 20 (- 1.37%); the 01 contract was 1293, down 22 (- 1.67%) [7][8]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the heavy - soda and light - soda prices in different regions remained mostly stable, with some regions having a price difference between heavy and light soda [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New grain seasonal supply is abundant, putting pressure on spot prices later [4]. - New grain listing has increased slightly, and the mainstream price of raw grain has dropped to 1.85 - 1.88 yuan per catty [4]. - The soybean No. 1 futures continue the rhythm of volume - increasing decline and volume - decreasing rebound, and attention should be paid to the rebound strength [4]. - The resumption of auctions intensifies the market supply pressure, and attention should be paid to the transaction situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3850 - 4000 yuan per ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 10.16% and a current volatility historical percentile of 31.4% [3]. 3.2 Risk Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For planting entities with high demand for selling new grains in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures (A2511) with a hedging ratio of 30% and a suggested entry range of 4000 - 4050 (holding) [3]. - When there is a concentrated listing and the seller's bargaining power weakens, it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price, with a hedging ratio of 30% and a suggested entry range of 30 - 50 (holding) [3]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For those worried about the rise in raw grain prices and the increase in procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait for spot procurement in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long positions in A2603 and A2605 are recommended, waiting for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - There was widespread rainfall in the Heilongjiang production area, delaying the harvesting operation in some areas [4]. - The short - side of the 11 - contract significantly reduced positions, leading to a large - scale rebound in the futures price [4]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - The e - commerce platform of China National Grain Reserves Corporation will organize a special session for the competitive sale of domestic soybeans on September 26, 2025, with a sales volume of 19349 tons. The resumption of auctions increases the pressure on the spot market, and the futures market may have priced in this bearish factor [4]. - On September 24, Liangda.com planned to auction 7330 tons of raw soybeans from Rongtong Company, with a starting price of 3820 - 3930 yuan per ton, and all auctions failed [4]. 3.4 Market Price Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 23 Close Price | 2025 - 09 - 24 Close Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No. 1 11 | 3878 | 3907 | 29 | 0.75% | | Soybean No. 1 01 | 3871 | 3893 | 22 | 0.57% | | Soybean No. 1 03 | 3877 | 3894 | 17 | 0.44% | | Soybean No. 1 05 | 3920 | 3928 | 8 | 0.20% | | Soybean No. 1 07 | 3924 | 3927 | 3 | 0.08% | | Soybean No. 1 09 | 3932 | 3934 | 2 | 0.05% | [4]