化工日报 | 2025-11-14 EG高供应，本周主港延续累库 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3892元/吨（较前一交易日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.03%），EG华东市场现货价 3943元/吨（较前一交易日变动-22元/吨，幅度-0.55%），EG华东现货基差59元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-62美元/吨（环比-1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-987 元/吨（环比-38元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为66.1万吨（环比+9.9万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.8万吨（环比+5.4万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数14.6万吨，副 港到港量6.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数18.1万吨，副港到港量4.7万吨，本周到港计划较多，预计将再度累 库。隆众口径周四较周一累库1.3万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 11月中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈现中性偏多，港口库存预计逐步回升 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongda Co., Ltd. utilizes futures hedging to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations on production costs, primarily relying on copper and aluminum as key raw materials [1] Group 1 - The company responded to investor inquiries on November 6 regarding its approach to raw material price volatility [1] - The main raw materials for the company's products are copper and aluminum [1] - The company typically employs futures hedging strategies to smooth out the effects of raw material price fluctuations on production costs [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory remains high, and the arrival pressure in November is still significant. The overseas supply pressure is large as Iran has not announced winter inspections. Attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the December Fude maintenance plan and the opening of the window for methanol to flow back to the mainland as port prices fall [3] - The mainland inventory is continuously accumulating. Mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. The coal - based methanol start - up rate has further increased in November, and the mainland inventory has been rebuilt from a low level. The demand from mainland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The mainland is also in an inventory accumulation cycle, and the degree of support for the port remains to be observed [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - term structure, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) compared with the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][27] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - The report includes figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), mainland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated ones) [6][35][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - There are figures showing regional price differences, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][40][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][53][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Views - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the context of China - US negotiations. With the expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in, the ending inventory remains at around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range moves up slightly. There is limited upward drive due to the smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans. The inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by the high near - month inventory. Buying US soybeans will bring a downward drive for the far - month, but the cost support moves up during the outer - market rebound, so the decline is also limited. The inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations. It shows slightly stronger in the short - term due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month, but chasing long is not advisable. The timing of going long after November depends on subsequent warrant changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price prediction for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.2%. For rapeseed meal, it is 2250 - 2750, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.9% [3] - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about high imports and low prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3] Core Contradictions - Outer - market US soybeans are export - demand - driven. Inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by high near - month inventory, and buying US soybeans will affect far - month prices. Inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations and warrant cancellation [4] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. The outer - market strengthens continuously when buying US soybeans. The pressure on the near - month contract is relieved as it enters the warrant cancellation month [5][6] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The current near - month supply shows high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, and soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation. The smooth planting in Brazil and the repair of the far - month supply gap under China - US negotiations are negative factors [6][9] Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3021, up 27 (0.9%); soybean meal 05 is 2813, up 14 (0.5%); soybean meal 09 is 2930, up 12 (0.41%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2388, down 13 (- 0.54%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2342, up 7 (0.3%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2432, up 3 (0.12%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1115, up 8 (0.72%); the offshore RMB is 7.122, up 0.0089 (0.13%) [7][10] Price Spreads - For soybean meal, M01 - 05 spread is 208, up 13; M05 - 09 is - 117, up 2; M09 - 01 is - 91, down 15. For rapeseed meal, RM01 - 05 spread is 46, down 20; RM05 - 09 is - 90, up 4; RM09 - 01 is 44, up 16. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3020, up 20; the basis is - 1, down 7. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2450, unchanged; the basis is 62, up 13. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 570, up 20; the futures spread is 633, up 40 [11] Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4727.8317 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import cost is 4062.33 yuan/ton, up 20.17. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 852.6667 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import profit is - 43.7567 yuan/ton, down 15.4341. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 497 yuan/ton, down 92; in the spot market, it is 765 yuan/ton, down 92 [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the background of China - US negotiations. The expectation of Chinese procurement of US soybeans will drive the rebound of US soybeans, but the rebound is limited without actual policies or orders. Brazil's soybean planting progress is improving, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upward space of the inner - market soybean series is limited by high near - month inventory, but there is also support below. The inner - market rapeseed series should focus on China - Canada relations and is affected by supply restoration expectations and soybean meal [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - In the near - month, the high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, the increase in oil mill crushing volume, and the resumption of seasonal inventory accumulation of soybean meal are negative factors. The increase in warehouse receipt pressure and the expectation of China - US and China - Canada negotiations also put downward pressure on the meal market [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.1%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 18.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.2% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to prevent inventory losses [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as CBOT yellow soybeans and the offshore RMB, are provided. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, down 1 with a 0.03% decline [7]. 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spread and Import Cost and Profit - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The import costs and profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, and the import profits of Canadian rapeseed are also given. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4430.9578 yuan/ton, up 19.2789 yuan/ton [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term spot liquidity is tightening due to fewer imported shipments and potential unloading issues. In the long - term, domestic and imported supplies are expected to increase, leading to a high - supply situation in the fourth quarter that downstream industries can't fully absorb, and the inventory build - up pattern is hard to change [4]. - **Styrene**: Supply is tightening as more units are under maintenance and the return of Jingbo's styrene is uncertain. However, terminal demand recovery after the National Day holiday is limited, and port inventory remains high. With new plants coming into operation, the de - stocking pressure is expected to increase. In the short term, one can short the spread between pure benzene and styrene when prices are high, and consider widening the processing spread after seeing significant unplanned styrene production cuts or an increase in pure benzene imports. Given the large macro - level disturbances, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for pure benzene is predicted to be 5200 - 5800 yuan/ton, and for styrene, it is 6200 - 6800 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over three years is 85.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventories and concerns about price drops, one can short styrene futures (EB2512) at 25% with an entry range of 6600 - 6650 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell call options (EB2512C6700) at 50% with an entry range of 70 - 90 to collect premiums and reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventories and the need to purchase based on orders, buy styrene futures (EB2512) at 50% with an entry range of 6350 - 6400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (EB2512P6400) at 75% with an entry range of 55 - 70 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term supply tightness due to import issues, but long - term high supply and difficult de - stocking due to insufficient downstream demand [4]. - **Styrene**: Supply reduction due to maintenance, but limited demand recovery and high port inventory. New plant startups will increase de - stocking pressure. Macro factors drive price increases, but the rebound is weaker than that of crude oil [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - In early October, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China decreased to 4.7 tons, and some import cargoes faced unloading difficulties, tightening short - term spot liquidity [5]. - Dalian Hengli Petrochemical's 720,000 - ton styrene plant is planned to shut down for half a month starting in early November [7]. - US sanctions on Russian oil companies and geopolitical rumors in Venezuela have pushed up crude oil prices, strengthening the cost side [7]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - As of October 20, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 202,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period, indicating difficulty in reducing high inventory [8]. - The 600,000 - ton styrene plants of Guangxi Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical were put into production around October 18 and 19 respectively [8]. 3.5 Price and Spread Data - **Basis Changes**: The daily basis changes of pure benzene and styrene in different regions and contracts are provided, showing various trends [8]. - **Industry Chain Spreads**: The spreads between pure benzene and styrene in the industry chain, including spot, paper - based, and different contract months, are presented, along with their daily changes [9]. - **Price Data**: The prices of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain, such as crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene, are given for different dates, including daily and weekly changes [9][10].

Group 1: Market Participants - The market participants in the alumina futures market can be categorized into five main types: upstream production enterprises, downstream consumption enterprises, domestic and foreign traders, financial institutions and arbitrage funds, and individual and speculative funds [1][2]. Group 2: Upstream and Downstream Enterprises - Upstream production enterprises, such as alumina plants, use futures to hedge against price fluctuations of bauxite and their own products, thereby locking in sales profits [1]. - Downstream consumption enterprises, like electrolytic aluminum plants, utilize a combination of "alumina futures + electrolytic aluminum futures" to stabilize processing fees and profits [1]. Group 3: Trading and Financial Institutions - Domestic and foreign traders, along with spot traders and specialized futures companies, engage in both hedging and basis trading, providing liquidity to the market [1]. - Financial institutions and arbitrage funds, including futures company asset management, private equity funds, and chemical product arbitrage teams, primarily conduct cross-commodity, cross-month, or spot-futures arbitrage [1]. Group 4: Individual and Speculative Funds - The high volatility of alumina futures attracts a significant amount of intraday short-term and high-frequency speculative funds, which play an important role in price discovery [2]. Group 5: Delivery Details - The delivery unit for alumina futures is set at 300 tons (15 lots) in integer multiples, with dual-track delivery involving registered brands and warehouses/factories; individuals are not allowed to enter the delivery month [3]. - The quality standards are defined by the national standard GB/T 24487-2022 for AO-1 or AO-2 grades, with strict upper limits on impurities such as SiO, FeO, and NaO [3]. - The delivery settlement price is calculated as the arithmetic average of the settlement prices from the last five trading days with transactions [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The polyester industry chain continues to be weak due to a weak cost side. There is an imbalance between China's import demand and US exports after the National Day, along with increased Middle - East exports, leading to a supply - surplus situation. In the short term, the combination of macro and fundamental factors is pressuring the fundamentals, with no obvious drivers for a rebound. PX, TA, and demand - side conditions all face various challenges, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - It's currently in the Sino - US trade war negotiation period, and the leaders of both sides will meet around the end of the month. Attention should be paid to the progress. Also, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025, discussing the "15th Five - Year Plan", studying the current economic situation, and planning the second - half economic work [1]. Market Analysis Cost Side - After the National Day, there is a significant gap between China's slowing import demand and the increasing US exports, combined with increased Middle - East exports, resulting in a supply - surplus situation. The combination of macro and fundamental factors is pressuring the fundamentals, with no signs of a rebound [2]. - PX: The PXN was 246 dollars/ton in the previous trading session (a 5.50 - dollar/ton increase from the previous period). China's PX operating rate has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. With fewer PX maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some plants, PXN remains under pressure. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans after a significant compression of profits, so the PX supply - demand support is limited [2]. - TA: The TA main - contract spot basis was - 88 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee was 106 yuan/ton (a 23 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the main - contract on - screen processing fee was 307 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The processing fee has been further compressed due to news of new plant launches. There are many near - term maintenance plans, so the inventory - accumulation pressure is not large. However, a new plant is expected to start production next week, and the inventory - accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is abundant, and the cost - side support has weakened. The demand side is not in the peak season due to tariffs [2]. Demand Side - The polyester operating rate was 91.4% (a 0.1% decrease from the previous period). After the National Day, the market calmed down, and filament inventory increased again. Terminal raw - material procurement remains mostly cautious. The weaving and texturing load decreased again this week due to high tariffs. It's expected that the average polyester load in October can still be maintained above 91%, and there is still support from the cooling weather. Attention should be paid to whether bottle - chip production will restart when the processing fee recovers [3]. - PF: The spot production profit was 326 yuan/ton (an 18 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load remained stable. Due to the narrowing price gap in the market, the factory price advantage became prominent, and inventory decreased. The current factory inventory is low, and the quantity of goods held by traders has decreased. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw - material side, and the processing margin has expanded to over 1200. On the demand side, the production of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn was mostly stable, with some offering moderate discounts. Sales were average, inventory decreased slightly, and the load increased slightly [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip spot processing fee was 530 yuan/ton (an 11 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Fundamentally, the bottle - chip load remained stable with a slight increase this week. Large factories generally maintained production cuts. The bottle - chip factory inventory decreased. As the processing efficiency improves, attention should be paid to whether the plant load will increase and the progress of new - capacity launches [3]. Strategy Single - Side Strategy - For PX/PTA/PF/PR, cautious short - selling hedging at high prices is recommended. Currently in the Sino - US trade war negotiation period, attention should be paid to the progress. For PX, China's PX operating rate has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, with fewer fourth - quarter maintenance plans and capacity expansion of some plants, weakening the fourth - quarter supply - demand support. For TA, there are many near - term maintenance plans, and the inventory - accumulation pressure is not large, but a new plant is expected to start production soon, and the inventory - accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is abundant, and the demand side is not in the peak season due to tariffs. For PF, the demand has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has decreased to a low level. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw - material side, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate strongly. For PR, the bottle - chip fundamentals have not changed much, maintenance continues, and the demand is average. The bottle - chip spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw - material price fluctuations [4]. Cross - Variety Strategy - Go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [4]. Cross - Period Strategy - PX/PTA2601 - 2605 reverse spread [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current trading focus of the soybean meal futures market is that the US soybean market is mainly driven by export demand under the background of China-US negotiations. It will continue to fluctuate narrowly at the bottom until actual Chinese purchase orders emerge. The suspension of the US Department of Agriculture and the October USDA report's potential adjustment to the previous yield are to be followed. The soybean planting progress in Brazil is improving, and there are no major issues with the new crop's yield. The upward space of the domestic soybean complex is restricted by the high inventory pressure in the near - term, and short - term sentiment trading is affected by China - US negotiations. - The current trading focus of the rapeseed meal futures market is that with limited arrivals of rapeseed raw materials in the future, inventory will show seasonal destocking. China - Canada negotiations affect market expectations, and it will mainly follow the trend of soybean meal in the short term. The timing of accelerating long positions depends on subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.5% and a historical percentile of 34.2% over three years. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.3% and a historical percentile of 52.8% over three years [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs due to high protein inventory and concerns about price drops | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in case of price increases | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and cover production costs due to concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - For soybean meal, the external US soybean market is export - demand - driven under China - US negotiations, with short - term USDA suspension and Brazilian planting progress to watch. The domestic market is restricted by high inventory and negotiation sentiment. - For rapeseed meal, with limited raw material arrivals, inventory will destock seasonally. It follows soybean meal in the short term, and the long - entry timing depends on warehouse receipts [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to supply - demand gaps. - The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - In the near - term, the inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and the soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend after the resumption of oil mill crushing. - The warehouse receipt pressure of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has increased again, making the near - term supply pressure dominate the market. - The expectations of China - US and China - Canada negotiations have led to a weakening of the meal futures market [6]. 3.6 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 2889 | - 6 | - 0.21% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2743 | 7 | 0.26% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2860 | 7 | 0.25% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2321 | - 29 | - 1.23% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2303 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2396 | 2 | 0.08% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1032.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1233 | 0.0067 | 0.09% | [7][9] 3.7 Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 159 | 0 | RM01 - 05 | 45 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 117 | 0 | RM05 - 09 | - 89 | 0 | | M09 - 01 | - 42 | 0 | RM09 - 01 | 44 | 0 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2970 | 0 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 75 | 0 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2480 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 130 | - 44 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 490 | 0 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 545 | 0 | [10] 3.8 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4397.7754 | - 59.8076 | 0.005 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 4001.68 | 33.35 | 75.73 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 715.0854 | - 8.1371 | - 1.6835 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 590.0704 | - 59.8076 | - 7.1389 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 3.5993 | 8.8209 | - 0.9582 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 766 | - 26 | - 206 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 1025 | - 29 | - 180 | [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, the port destocking rate has slowed down, domestic production capacity utilization has declined, and downstream capacity utilization has decreased. There is still inventory pressure in PA6, nylon filament, and MDI [4]. - For styrene, short - term maintenance continues, new device production impacts, downstream capacity utilization has increased but port inventory pressure persists, overseas demand is weak, and inventory pressure continues [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and Styrene Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - period - Not elaborated in the content, only figure names are mentioned such as pure benzene and styrene futures contracts, spot prices, basis, and inter - period spreads [9][10][17] 2. Styrene Supply - The arrival volume of styrene in East China is 11,900 tons (-27,300 tons). The overall styrene factory capacity utilization is 71.88% (-1.73%), with different rates in different regions: East China 71.42% (+3.35%), Shandong 62.46% (-13.08%), and South China 80.53% (-2.17%) [1]. - In the short term, maintenance continues, satellite petrochemical is under maintenance, and new device production from Jihua, Guangxi Petrochemical, etc. impacts [4]. 3. Styrene Downstream Demand - EPS capacity utilization is 62.52% (+21.78%), PS capacity utilization is 53.80% (-0.80%), ABS capacity utilization is 73.10% (+0.60%), UPR capacity utilization is 34.00% (+14.00%), and butadiene - styrene rubber capacity utilization is 70.20% (-0.20%) [1]. - EPS has a seasonal post - festival increase, PS capacity utilization continues to decline, ABS capacity utilization rebounds from a low level, and the finished product inventory pressure of the three hard plastics is still large [4]. 4. Styrene Inventory - The East China port inventory of styrene is 196,500 tons (-5,400 tons), and the factory inventory is 193,420 tons (-443 tons). The inventory of EPS sample enterprises is 34,600 tons (+4,100 tons), PS sample enterprises is 112,050 tons (+3,350 tons), ABS sample enterprises is 257,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and butadiene - styrene rubber sample enterprises is 19,000 tons (-1,500 tons) [1]. - The port inventory pressure persists, and overseas demand is weak, increasing the import pressure on China [4]. 5. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - The East China port inventory of pure benzene is 90,000 tons (-1,000 tons). The pure benzene capacity utilization is 75.48% (-3.81%), and the hydro - benzene capacity utilization is 64.53% (+1.29%) [2]. 6. Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - In the CPL industry chain, the CPL capacity utilization is 92.41% (-3.59%), the PA6 capacity utilization is 79.58% (+1.37%), and the nylon filament capacity utilization is 77.50% (-0.50%) [2]. - In the phenol - acetone industry chain, the phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 78.00% (+0.00%), the bisphenol A capacity utilization is 68.90% (-5.77%), the PC capacity utilization is 77.69% (-3.23%), and the epoxy resin capacity utilization is 50.64% (-0.25%) [2]. - In the aniline industry chain, the aniline capacity utilization is 75.73% (-1.43%), the polymer MDI capacity utilization is 96.00% (+0.00%), and the pure MDI capacity utilization is 96.00% (+0.00%) [3]. - In the adipic acid industry chain, the adipic acid capacity utilization is 59.10% (-7.80%), the spandex capacity utilization is 77.50% (+0.00%), the PA66 capacity utilization is 60.45% (-0.82%), and the polyurethane elastomer capacity utilization is 53.50% (+1.21%) [3].