可当镜头对准那些酒店大厅、那些挑牛排的大妈、那些排队领号的年轻人，你会发现：这不是玩笑，而是现实。 而这现实背后，是五星级酒店的集体下沉，是消费降级的加速，也是整个行业在寒冬里艰难求生的缩影。 最近，一条关于"五星级酒店剩菜盲盒"的视频刷屏互联网。 很多人第一次听到这个词时，甚至以为是段子： ——五星酒店卖剩菜？ ——盲盒？ ——88 元自助牛排随便捞？ 最典型的例子就是： 上海宝格丽酒店，北京瑜舍酒店——这些曾经的顶奢标杆相继易主或倒闭。 高端酒店在往下掉，平替酒店却疯狂增长： 2024 年上半年，全国新开酒店 2.3 万家、100 万间房，主打"五星平替"的精品酒店成为最大赢家。 一句话： 消费者变穷了。 公司变抠了。 市场变冷了。 根据文旅部数据： 2019–2024 五年间，中国五星级酒店数量从 845 家减少到 736 家，减少近 13%。 而今年情况比去年更难： 那么，为什么五星级酒店会走到卖剩菜这一步？ 答案很简单：自助餐亏得太狠了。 行业数据显示： 于是，就出现我们看到的这一幕： 禁酒令让商务宴请骤减 婚宴市场跳水 公司普遍降本增效，不再住高端酒店 自助餐厅的食材损耗率普遍在 20% 五星酒店 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The central economic work conference indicates that China will adopt a moderately stimulating policy in 2026, with a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Key focuses include expanding consumption, stabilizing investment, and preventing systemic risks [2] - The central bank is expected to lower the RRR by 50 basis points and the LPR by 20 basis points in 2026. The broad fiscal deficit may reach 8.5% of GDP, close to 8.4% in 2025 [2] Global Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,531, down 0.04% for the day but up 27.27% year-to-date. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,873, down 0.70% for the day and up 15.56% year-to-date [3] - The U.S. markets showed slight increases, with the Dow Jones up 1.34% and the S&P 500 up 0.21%. However, the Nasdaq fell by 0.25% [3] Industry Outlook Consumer Sector in China - The report maintains a "market perform" rating for the Chinese consumer sector in 2026, expecting overall retail sales growth of about 3.5%, slightly down from approximately 4% in 2025. Negative factors outweigh positive ones, including the withdrawal of subsidies and slowing export momentum [7][8] - Investment focus is on three consumption types: survival consumption emphasizing frugality, compensatory consumption focusing on affordable entertainment, and defensive assets like gold and high-dividend stocks [8] Specific Sub-sectors - The report is optimistic about the tea and coffee, trendy toys, clothing, and textile industries for 2026. It suggests that tea and coffee have structural growth potential despite a slowdown in growth rates [8][9] - The restaurant sector faces challenges from subsidy withdrawals and increased competition, while the sports goods sector may see some brand reversals but is still impacted by consumer downgrading and inventory pressures [9] Company Reports - Adobe reported a 10% year-on-year revenue increase to $6.19 billion in Q4 FY25, with non-GAAP net profit rising 8% to $2.29 billion, meeting expectations. The integration of AI technology is driving business growth, with AI-enabled business ARR exceeding one-third of total business [10] - J&T Express achieved profitability in Thailand after years of price wars, holding a market share of 32.8% in the first half of FY25. The management is confident about growth potential in the Southeast Asian market [10]

Group 1: Economic Trends - The phenomenon of "revenge saving" is emerging in China, with consumers prioritizing savings over spending due to economic uncertainties [1][11] - In Q2 2025, household deposits exceeded 128 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards saving [3] - Retail sales growth remains stagnant at around 4%, significantly below the initial forecast of 5.5%, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment [3] Group 2: Real Estate Market - Despite lower down payment ratios and historically low mortgage rates, the sales area of commercial housing in China decreased by 8.3% in the first half of 2025, with sales revenue dropping by 12.6% [3] - The phenomenon of "fear of debt" is prevalent, as individuals are hesitant to take on large loans despite favorable borrowing conditions [3] - Population migration trends show a net outflow of 172,000 people from first-tier cities, while second and third-tier cities see a net inflow of 268,000, indicating shifting urban dynamics [3] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There is a stark divide in the consumer market, with luxury brands like LV and Chanel experiencing double-digit sales declines, while sales of micro electric vehicles surged by 43.7% [5] - Young consumers are increasingly opting for practical purchases over brand-name products, reflecting a significant shift in consumption attitudes [5] - The rise of online shopping and community-based retail models is reshaping traditional retail landscapes, leading to increased foot traffic in online platforms while physical stores struggle [5] Group 4: Employment Market - The unemployment rate for individuals aged 25-35 is at 6.7%, with youth unemployment exceeding 20%, highlighting structural issues in the job market [7] - Many young people are shifting career paths towards flexible employment or self-media, indicating a response to changing job market demands [7] - The decline in marriage and birth rates is attributed to high living costs, with young couples facing significant financial burdens [7] Group 5: Economic Structure and Policy Responses - The growth in sectors like renewable energy and semiconductors is not sufficient to offset declines in real estate and traditional manufacturing [9] - There is a 30% mismatch between the skills of graduates and the needs of employers, exacerbating employment challenges [9] - Policy measures, including increased minimum wage standards and financial support for families, are being implemented to address these economic challenges [9]

Core Insights - The price of Moutai has significantly dropped, with the group purchase price on Pinduoduo at 1499 yuan, breaking a psychological barrier that has been reinforced over the past decade [1] - The wholesale price of boxed Moutai fell over 50 yuan in a single day to 1640 yuan, and the price of individual bottles has decreased nearly 30% compared to the same period last year [1] - The decline in prices is attributed to a collective disappearance of consumption scenarios, with a sharp drop in the opening rate of bottles to 22% [1] Market Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship has fundamentally reversed, with Moutai's base liquor production reaching 56,000 tons in 2022, leading to a market inventory nearing 800 million bottles [1] - The direct sales model of the iMoutai app has exposed previously hidden inventory, undermining the narrative of scarcity [1] - Data shows that Gen Z's consumption of liquor has declined by 15% for two consecutive years, with a preference for craft beer over high-end liquor [1] Financial Implications - The financial attributes of Moutai have diminished, with an increase in the auction failure rate of old liquor by 20% and a significant price gap between the payment price and market price for certain products [3] - The entire liquor industry is undergoing a value reassessment, with major brands like Wuliangye and Yanghe experiencing significant profit declines [3] - The current market turbulence is driven more by structural changes in consumer habits rather than policy-driven adjustments, leading to a redefinition of Moutai's value [3] Future Outlook - Moutai has instructed distributors not to sell below 1700 yuan, but market dynamics may override these policies [3] - The luxury status of Moutai may diminish, potentially returning to its essence as a complex distilled spirit rather than a financial product [3] - Speculators holding inventory in anticipation of price increases may face significant losses as market conditions evolve [3]

万洲国际 20251205 摘要 万洲国际预计 2026 年中国生猪市场供强需弱，猪价或低于 2025 年， 利好屠宰及肉制品业务的原材料成本，但整体均价涨幅有限，对以屠宰 和肉制品为主的业务运营是利好的原材料环境。 美国市场方面，万洲国际通过对冲团队管理饲料成本，集中采购确保成 本确定性。肉制品业务受益于产业链整合、品牌组合及效率把控，预计 2026 年猪价回落将利好肉猪价差，提升屠宰业盈利水平。 万洲国际预计 2026 年肉制品利润增速将恢复至中高单位数增长，受益 于猪价回落缓解成本压力。美国屠宰业利润有望提升，因猪价下降利好 肉猪价差。 中国市场四季度销量预计增长，新渠道贡献加大，促销投入增加。2026 年新渠道将带动肉制品销量实现中单位数增长，新渠道销售增速希望达 到 30%或更高。 史密斯菲尔德单独上市后运营管理未变，但股权结构更丰富，派息政策 更明确，承诺每年净利润约 50%派息，提升万洲国际对股东派息的稳定 性和能力。 Q&A 对于 2026 年美国和中国猪价的走势有何预测？ 在美国，我们观察到近期猪肉期货价格有所波动。基于目前的期货价格，预计 2026 年的猪价相较 2025 年会小幅下行。主 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the wool industry, particularly focusing on leading wool enterprises due to expected price increases and inventory replenishment [1][11]. Core Insights - The wool trend is upward, with a focus on investment opportunities in leading wool companies. After a period of low demand and destocking from 2024 to the first half of 2025, the industry is expected to see a cyclical turning point in the second half of 2025. Downstream demand is gradually recovering, as evidenced by a 42% year-on-year increase in contract liabilities for New Australia Holdings in Q3 2025, and a 12.6% year-on-year decrease in raw material inventory across the industry. This supply-demand dynamic supports a strengthening of wool prices, with the spot price of Australian 19-micron wool rising by 20.44% year-on-year in September 2025 [1][12][13]. - Natural堂 Group has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. As China's third-largest domestic cosmetics group, its main brand, Natural堂, remains a leader among domestic brands. The company focuses on mass-market skincare products, with 68.8% of revenue coming from online channels and a broad offline network. In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue grew by 6.4% year-on-year, aligning with the growth rate of the mass-market skincare industry [1][14][24]. Industry Data Tracking - In October, clothing retail sales began to recover, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, attributed to seasonal promotions and improved consumer traffic due to reduced extreme weather conditions. Jewelry retail also continued to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [2][27]. - The cosmetics sector saw a year-on-year retail increase of 9.6% in October, with a significant acceleration in growth compared to September [2][39]. Investment Recommendations - For the apparel sector, Hai Lan Home is recommended for its innovative transformation and strong profitability potential. Li Ning is undergoing operational adjustments, with a potential turning point expected in 2025. In the beauty sector, recommendations include Giant Biological, which has shown resilience, and Jinbo Biological, a leader in collagen products expected to launch new products in the second half of the year. In the gold and jewelry sector, the report recommends Laopu Gold due to its strong brand power amid rising gold prices [3][43].

Core Viewpoint - The "internal circulation" strategy aims to boost domestic demand to drive economic growth, but current consumer spending is declining, indicating challenges in achieving this goal [3][10]. Group 1: Economic Context - The concept of "internal circulation" is introduced as a response to external pressures in international trade and supply chains, emphasizing the need for a domestic market-driven economy [3]. - In 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached approximately 47.12 trillion yuan, but the growth rate is low, with significant disparities across different sectors [4]. - Essential goods like food and daily necessities are still seeing growth, while non-essential and luxury goods are experiencing slow or negative growth [4][6]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more rational, reducing unnecessary spending and focusing on basic needs, leading to a passive consumption downgrade [4][6]. - Personal savings have increased significantly in 2023, indicating a tendency to save rather than spend due to uncertainty about future income and expenses [4]. - Young consumers are particularly affected by high living costs, leading them to prioritize saving over spending [6]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - The decline in consumer purchasing power is a significant barrier to the "internal circulation" strategy, as income growth is not keeping pace with rising expenses [7][10]. - Companies are facing difficulties, which may lead to price increases that further suppress consumer spending [7]. - The transition to an internal circulation economy requires breaking existing patterns, which may result in job losses and income reductions, further inhibiting consumption [7][10]. Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - To effectively stimulate internal circulation, it is essential to increase residents' income, reduce major expenditure pressures, and enhance consumer confidence [10]. - Optimizing consumption structure and developing new consumption areas, such as healthcare and education, could create new demand [10][11]. - The transition to an internal circulation economy is a long-term process that requires collective efforts from consumers, businesses, and the government [11][12].

▲这是灵兽第1721篇原创文章 生鲜传奇超大店是在购物中心的"食品生活馆"，满足情绪性消费。 在灵兽传媒和超采会于2025年10月30-31日联合主办的2025中国零售创新峰会暨小业态发展大会与中国零售供应链展览会上，王卫做了以《吃着玩儿》为 主题的演讲。 下为演讲全文（有删改）： 要看懂消费降级下"精致的贫穷"的社会心态，并围绕"情绪消费"和"吃着玩"彻底重构商品逻辑。 作者/楚勿留香编辑整理 ID/lingshouke 有关"大店好还是小店好"的争论，在零售行业一直都未停止。 当然，这也与经济周期相关，二者互有"胜负"。在推崇小店、"小而美"的当下，被视为小业态引领者的乐城超市＆生鲜传奇董事长王卫，再一次将目光聚 焦"大店"。 他认为，重整开业的乐城超市，既不是传统超市的升级，更不是大卖场的回光，而是购物中心中，餐饮、奶茶店、咖啡店、化妆品店的降维消费。 比如，我们最早做的零食店，100平方米一天能做3万多元，毛利率高，一个月就能回本。尽管数据很好，但当时做大店出身的人，内心还是瞧不起小店 的，觉得太简单、不值一提。 1 从大卖场衰落到小业态崛起 各位来宾，大家早上好。感谢岳峰再次邀请我参加这个小业态论坛 ...

岁末年初，人们总习惯回顾过往，展望未来，而盘点一年的收成，无疑是其中至关重要的一环。这几年，经济大环境充满挑战，投资市场更是如同惊险的过 山车，令人心惊胆战。那些诸如股票、基金、创业等听起来诱人的字眼，对于大多数普通百姓而言，或许不如稳守现有存款来得实在。放眼2025，守护好钱 袋子才是王道。 表格显示，25岁之前的存款基本在1万元以内，30岁达到12万，35岁要有20万，40岁达到32万，45岁46万，而50岁则需要拥有65万存款。平心而论，这份表 单的数据还算务实，只要努力，实现对应年龄的存款目标并非遥不可及。 然而，在当前经济形势下，与其费尽心思地攒钱，更让人头疼的或许是如何守住现有的财富。 说起存款，网络上经常能看到这样的提问："30岁到底有多少存款才算正常？" 近期，一张"各年龄段存款标准表"在网络上流传，引发热议。今天，我们就 来深入探讨一下这个话题。 这位发帖的网友分享了自己的经历：他和妻子大学毕业后便开始工作，但最初几年几乎是"月光族"，甚至偶尔还需要父母资助。 然而，结婚生子后，他们 的生活逐渐步入正轨，也慢慢学会了储蓄。 夫妻俩年收入30多万，扣除房贷、车贷和日常开支，每年还能存下几万元。 ...

前几天，关于"消费降级越来越严重"的话题冲上热搜消费降级越来越严重了上热搜！网友纷纷晒自己生活状态倒苦水…… 在用户的评论中，出现频率最高的就是不怎么"下馆子"了，而在小柴深入去了解这种现状的时候，在社交媒体上发现了一股流行在年轻人群体中的新风潮 ——凌晨去五星酒店抢剩菜盲盒…… 在各大社交媒体上检索相关关键词，相关话题累计播放量加起来轻松破10亿…… 比如在小某书上，开五星酒店剩菜盲盒，已经成了打工人下班后的快乐之一。 而这个盲盒怎么开，可以说五花八门，有打包好的剩菜盲盒袋，也可以到现场自己打包当天没消耗完的菜品。价格是从十几元到上百元不等。 有网友表示，在上海金茂大厦，只要88元就能开到原价398的剩菜盲盒。在该网友拍的视频中，剩菜中，量比较大的主要是蔬菜和汤类，螃蟹只剩蟹钳， 牛排已经空盘，好在有羊排。 不过，最终还是十几种菜品打爆了满满一盒…… 不过到底能装到什么，这个还真的看运气，另一位网友，在同一家酒店，可以说赚大发了，螃蟹、西冷牛排装了满满一大盒。 到了盲盒核券的时候，前台就已经排起了长队……可以说非常的抢手。 而小柴在翻阅这些笔记时发现，在上海有大量的酒店都推出了剩菜盲盒，但要抢到"好货"还真 ...