Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices, which fell by 8% on June 23, and further declines are expected following Trump's announcement of a "full ceasefire" between Israel and Palestine [1] - Since June 11, geopolitical risks have notably increased, but signs of risk reduction were evident on June 23, resulting in a substantial retraction of the oil price premium [1] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 will address production decisions for August, with expectations that countries like Saudi Arabia may continue to increase production for the fourth consecutive month, intensifying supply pressures [1] Group 2 - Macro sentiment disturbances are expected to influence oil prices, particularly with the impending expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension and the ongoing negotiations regarding "reciprocal tariffs" with the U.S. [2] - The Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July will be crucial, as it faces challenges related to "stagflation" risks and debt issues, which could impact oil price trends [2] - The average international oil price is projected to remain supported in Q3 within the range of $60-65 per barrel, but there may be greater downward pressure in Q4 [2]

避险情绪波动 贵金属涨势暂缓 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 伦敦金、伦敦银日线 沪金、沪银日线 逻辑分析 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 周内，美元指数延续磨底走势，间或小幅反弹。贵金属涨势暂缓，在高位陷入震荡。 ➢ 伦敦金交投于3340-3450美元区间，周跌幅1.9%；伦敦银交投于35.5-37.3美元区间，周跌幅0.9%。受外盘驱动和汇率因素影响， 沪金交投于777-800元区间，周跌幅1.99%；沪银交投与8638-9075区间，周跌幅1.44%。 ➢ 美元指数从97.6附近反弹，周内一度回到99之上，但未能站稳，最终收于98.7，周涨幅0.53%。10年美债收益率高位波动至4.38% 附近。 ◼ 本周市场的交易主线在于美联储的货币政策路径预期和中东地缘冲突。美联储方面，6月会议结果和市场预期一致，并且持续传达了关 税可能在未来引发通胀的担忧，观望仍是当前的主要基调，令贵金属整体有所承压。中东方面，伊朗、 ...

截至6月23日亚盘早市，黄金现货价格跳空至3385.71开盘，随后回调至3364.78美元/盎司附近，跌幅0.11%，盘中一度因 美军空袭伊朗核设施跳涨近30美元，但避险情绪未能持续。白银市场呈现类似走势，伦敦银现价格回落至36.03美元/盎 司，较开盘下跌0.14%。 | 昨收 | 3368.52 | 最高 | 3398.02 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3385.71 | | 3351.93 | | 买入 | 3364.78 | 卖出 | 3364.98 | 美军于6月21日动用B-2隐形轰炸机对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹等核设施发动空袭，投掷6枚钻地弹及30枚战斧导弹，伊朗随后 以导弹和无人机报复，但黄金价格仅短暂冲高后回调。 市场对地缘风险的"疲劳效应"显著，投资者更关注美联储政策路径及经济数据对黄金的中长期影响。尽管伊朗威胁封锁 霍尔木兹海峡可能推升油价，但布伦特原油仅微涨0.5%至78.3美元/桶，显示市场对短期能源供应中断的担忧有限。 一、地缘冲突与市场反应： 白银：日线级别仍处于35.50-36.50美元震荡区间，15分钟图在36.17美元（前高）附近遇阻，若 ...

【6月美联储按兵不动，铜市多因素交织有调整压力但下跌空间或有限】6月，美联储按兵不动，连续四 次会议暂停降息，预计今年降息两次，暗示滞胀风险增加。地缘风险、关税政策不确定及降息延后，压 制了市场风险偏好。 供应方面，上周国内TC报价为 -43.80美元/吨，仍处历史低位，显示矿石供应紧 张。预测2025年全球铜冶炼产能利用率或跌破80%，中国炼厂面临减产压力。虽冶炼亏损，但国内减产 意愿有限，间接支撑铜精矿报价。预计6月国内电解铜产量环比降0.72万吨，降幅0.63%，同比增12.61 万吨，升幅12.55%；1 - 6月累计产量预计同比增67.09万吨，升幅11.34%。 需求端，因铜价处于阶段高 位，下游采购意愿不足，开工率放缓，拿货积极性低。终端电线电缆有韧性，但家电排产缩水，高温阶 段房地产形成拖累。近期基本面变化不大，总体供应偏紧，淡季需求有边际走弱预期。 库存上，上周 LME库存持续下降，纽约期货库存升至20万吨以上，再创近年新高，机构赌美国对铜产品进口加征关 税预期未减。国内社会库存小幅反弹，期货库存回落。 市场观点认为，6月美联储按兵不动等因素压制 市场风险偏好。铜矿TC维持深度负值，虽精铜矿 ...

Group 1 - Recent trends in US Treasury yields show a decline in short-term rates and a slight increase in long-term rates, indicating a dual market dynamic of outlook and supply-demand mismatch [1] - As of June 20, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.38%, down 2 basis points from two weeks prior, while the 2-year yield also fell by 2 basis points and the 30-year yield rose by 1 basis point [1] - The US fiscal surplus turned negative in May, resulting in a deficit of $316 billion, with a 12-month cumulative deficit of $2 trillion, highlighting ongoing fiscal pressures [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% on June 19, with increasing internal divisions potentially leading to communication risks regarding future policy [1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance increased by $7.7 billion over two weeks, while the Fed's reverse repo tool expanded by $33.3 billion, tightening short-term dollar liquidity [1] - Market conditions are facing risks from rapid oil price increases and tightening liquidity [1]

华联期货铜周报 淡季需求有边际走弱预期 20250622 黄忠夏 交易咨询号：Z0010771 从业资格号：F0285615 0769-22119245 审核：陈小国 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 供给及库存 4 初加工及终端市场 5 供需平衡表及产业链结构 周度观点及策略 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1285号 周度观点及策略 u 宏观：6月美联储按兵不动，连续四次会议暂停降息，预计今年降息两次，暗示滞胀风险增加。地缘风险、关税政策不确定及降息延 后压制市场风险偏好。 u 供应：上周国内TC（加工费）报价在-43.80美元/吨，仍处历史低位，凸显矿石供应紧张。据预测，2025年全球铜冶炼产能利用率或 跌破80%，中国炼厂面临减产压力，凸显上下游矛盾。尽管冶炼亏损，但目前国内减产意愿仍有限，间接支撑铜精矿报价。根据排产 情况，预计6月国内电解铜产量环比下降0.72万吨降幅为0.63%，同比增加12.61万吨升幅为12.55%。1-6月累计产量预计同比增加 67.09万吨升幅为11.34%。 u 需求：因铜价处于阶段高位，下游 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro: In June, the Fed kept rates unchanged, pausing rate cuts for the fourth consecutive meeting. It is expected to cut rates twice this year, hinting at an increased risk of stagflation. Geopolitical risks, uncertain tariff policies, and delayed rate cuts are suppressing market risk appetite [5]. - Supply: In June, bauxite prices fluctuated. The overall cost of alumina did not change significantly. Although the supply of domestic ores has been tight recently and concerns about imported ore supplies remain, some alumina enterprises continue to increase their operating capacity, and new projects are still expected to be launched in the southern region in the third quarter. There is still pressure for an increase in domestic supply. Due to high profits, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum smelters remains high, but the room for output growth is limited due to capacity constraints. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and its products, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Domestic aluminum smelting enterprises still face pressure from environmental protection supervision and electricity price adjustments, which may continue to promote the import of primary aluminum and intermediate products [5]. - Demand: The previous electricity reform policy stimulated the demand for photovoltaic installations. After entering June, the marginal demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic sector is under downward pressure. The real estate market in China has recovered due to a series of policy stimuli, and real estate demand has improved. The production schedules of white goods in July - August have decreased significantly month-on-month, increasing the downward pressure on terminal demand. However, the strong demand in the new energy industry largely offsets the impact of the decline in traditional industry demand [5]. - Inventory: Last week, both the LME market and domestic social inventories continued to decline, indicating that the market demand is not weak in the off - season [5]. - View: Entering June, bauxite prices fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina did not change significantly. Although the supply of domestic ores has been tight recently and concerns about imported ore supplies remain, some alumina enterprises continue to increase their operating capacity, and new projects are still expected to be launched in the southern region in the third quarter. There is still pressure for an increase in domestic supply. Due to high profits, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum smelters remains high, but the room for output growth is limited due to capacity constraints. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and its products, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Domestic aluminum smelting enterprises still face pressure from environmental protection supervision and electricity price adjustments, which may continue to promote the import of primary aluminum and intermediate products. On the demand side, the previous electricity reform policy stimulated the demand for photovoltaic installations. After entering June, the marginal demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic sector is under downward pressure. The real estate market in China has recovered due to a series of policy stimuli, and real estate demand has improved. The production schedules of white goods in July - August have decreased significantly month-on-month, increasing the downward pressure on terminal demand. However, the strong demand in the new energy industry largely offsets the impact of the decline in traditional industry demand. Currently, domestic social inventories are at a long - term low. Under the dual effects of capacity constraints and stable demand, aluminum prices still have upward potential in the medium term [5]. - Strategy: For Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy operations, it is recommended to mainly buy on dips. The reference support level for Shanghai Aluminum 2508 is 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Strategies - Macro factors such as Fed's rate - decision, geopolitical risks, and tariff policies affect market risk appetite [5]. - Supply side has capacity - related situations in alumina and electrolytic aluminum, along with import trends [5]. - Demand varies in different industries like photovoltaic, real estate, white goods, and new energy [5]. - Inventory shows a downward trend in both LME and domestic social inventories [5]. - The view is that aluminum prices have medium - term upward potential, and the strategy is to buy on dips [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents figures on domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums and discounts, LME aluminum prices, and China's aluminum ingot import profits [9][10]. 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of bauxite and its concentrates were 85.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. In May, imports were 17.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.4%. In 2024, China imported 158.767 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%. Guinea and Australia were the main sources. There are also many potential incremental projects in Guinea with a total expected increment of 62 million tons [20][22]. - **Alumina**: By May 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's alumina industry was 2,879.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 153.6 yuan/ton from the previous month. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative alumina production was 37.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In May, production was 7.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports were 1.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.4%, and cumulative exports were 11.723 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.4% [28][33][34]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of March 2025, China's built - in electrolytic aluminum capacity was 45.172 million tons, and the operating capacity reached 43.85 million tons. In May 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,333 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. The average profit was about 3,717 yuan/ton. In May 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 18.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. In May 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports were about 2.232 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 41.4%. From January to May, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 10.575 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. From January to May, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 0.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 215.6%. On June 20, 2025, the LME futures inventory was 342,900 tons. As of June 19, 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 450,000 tons [39][43][46][50][56][57]. 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Aluminum Alloy**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative aluminum alloy production was 7.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In May, production was 1.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7% [65]. - **Aluminum Products**: In May 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 26.831 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [72]. - **Imports and Exports of Aluminum Products**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 16.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%, and exports were 24.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [78]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report shows the global aluminum downstream demand structure, green demand forecasts, photovoltaic and wind power installation capacity forecasts, new energy vehicle sales forecasts, China's real estate market situation, new energy vehicle production, and power project investment, as well as China's automotive and photovoltaic aluminum consumption forecasts [83][87][92][97][102]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It is expected that the global primary aluminum production in 2025 will be 73.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. There are detailed production and demand data for different regions and years from 2021 to 2027E, showing supply - demand balances in different periods [105][106][107]. - **Aluminum Industrial Chain Structure**: No detailed text description provided, but presumably related to the overall industrial chain of aluminum from bauxite to downstream products.

美联储按兵不动，黄金高位回落 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | | 黄金：震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 月 | 22 | 日 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 1.9%至 3368 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.38%，通胀 预期 2.34%，实际利率降至 2.03%，美元指数涨 0.53%至 98.7，标普 500 指数跌 0.15%，离岸人民币小幅升值，内外价差窄幅波动。 贵 金 金价高位回落，表现弱于原油和白银，中东地区地缘政治风险继 续扰动市场，但资金选择做多价格更低的品种，对黄金的配置反 而有限，美国对伊朗的核设施进行打击后，预计伊朗的反击能力 有限，当前的地缘冲突程度难以带动黄金突破上涨，关注后续美 国的参与程度。 属 美联储 6 月利率会议按兵不动，点阵图显示支持年内不降息的人 数增加，2026 年的降息预期下降，经济预测则显示美国滞胀风险 增加，但由于就业市场存有韧性，关税对通胀的影响还未完全体 现，美联储选择继续观望，市场降息预期维持在 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250622: Macro and fundamental factors are intertwined, and copper will remain volatile in the short term [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macro and fundamental factors are intertwined, and copper will remain volatile in the short term [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Warehouse receipts are flowing out, and the premium of copper spot is under pressure [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium continued to strengthen week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.03/ton week - on - week to - $44.78/ton, still negative [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at nine ports decreased by 100,700 tons week - on - week to 712,100 tons [17] - The week - on - week change of the refined - scrap copper price difference was limited [20] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in June is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [22] - Copper imports still remain in an inverted state [24] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory increased [25] - The LME copper inventory decreased again, while the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [27] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week but fell short of expectations. Terminal demand was weak, and the finished product inventory of refined copper rods increased [30] - From June 1st to 15th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 38% year - on - year [33] - Domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decline in June [34] - The "trade - in" national subsidy will continue, and 138 billion yuan of central funds will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters [36] Macroeconomic Data - China's social financing in May increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed [40] - The US CPI in May increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling below expectations for the fourth consecutive month [42] - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, expecting two interest rate cuts this year and hinting at an increased risk of stagflation [43]

不过，尽管他认为经济和劳动力市场仍然"稳健"，但增长前景与通胀前景一样在迅速恶化。根据美联储 官员的预测，2025-2027年的累计GDP增长率将比去年12月份的预测低约1.25个百分点，累计通胀率将 高出约一个百分点。 转自：金十数据 美联储本周略微转向鹰派，表明其更担心通胀上升而非增长放缓。但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，应谨慎看 待这一前景。 美联储修订后的经济预测显示，官员们预计未来几个季度美国失业率和通胀率将上升，经济增长将放 缓。"滞胀"风险正在上升。 然而，与大多数其他G10央行不同的是，美联储拒绝先发制人地降息，而是选择等待关税引发的通胀前 景更加明朗后再决定下一步行动。 这是可以理解的。特朗普的关税对价格和经济活动的全面影响只有在7月9日之后才能感受到，届时目前 所谓的对等关税暂停期将结束。与此同时，随着以色列和伊朗之间的战争不断升级，新的地缘政治风险 正在上升，推动油价上涨。 在这种背景下，保持政策的"适度"限制性（鲍威尔对美联储当前立场的描述）是合理的。 鲍威尔几乎肯定会淡化或彻底否定这些动机，但它们仍将继续影响投资者对美联储行动的解读。 美联储亦毫无头绪 如果增长和通胀风险大体平衡，为什么官员 ...