Market Overview - A-shares experienced a comprehensive rise this week, with small-cap stocks continuing to outperform. The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased significantly compared to last week, indicating sustained momentum in the "small but beautiful" market structure [2][15]. Stock Market - The small-cap style has been dominant for an extended period, often associated with loose liquidity conditions. Current macroeconomic trends suggest that the trend of loose liquidity will continue, favoring small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks in terms of profit potential [7][8]. - The market's reaction to the recent China-US phone call was muted, indicating that investors are more focused on actual policy measures rather than mere expectations. The recommendation remains on sectors with clear fundamental improvements, particularly in technology and domestic consumption [8]. Bond Market - The bond market showed a strong performance this week, with a downward trend in the yield of ten-year government bonds. The central bank's liquidity support is evident, and the risk of significant interest rate hikes in the bond market is low [3][9]. - The bond market is expected to serve as a stabilizing asset class in the current economic environment, with a focus on appropriate buying timing to enhance returns [9]. Commodity Market - Gold prices fluctuated this week, with a general upward trend influenced by geopolitical factors and tariff policies. However, short-term volatility is expected to remain high [4][10]. - The long-term support for gold prices is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar's credit due to rising national debt [10]. Overseas Market - US stocks showed slight gains, with the 10-year US Treasury yield declining. The market remains sensitive to tariff policies and economic data, particularly employment figures [5][11]. - The uncertainty surrounding US government policies and the potential for a shift away from dollar dominance are key considerations for overseas asset allocation [11]. Industry Performance - In the A-share market, the communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors performed notably well, with weekly gains of +5.27%, +3.74%, and +3.60% respectively [22][24]. - The overall trading activity in the stock market saw an increase in the proportion of trading volume for small-cap indices compared to large-cap indices, indicating a shift in investor preference [15][19]. Key Events - The recent phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump has raised investor interest in the potential implications for trade relations and market sentiment [27]. - The release of China's PMI data for May indicated a slight improvement in manufacturing and services, which may influence market expectations moving forward [28]. Quantitative Data - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 11,842 billion yuan this week, a 10.81% increase from the previous week. The trading volume for the CSI 1000 index also saw a significant rise [15][38]. - The volatility of major indices, including the CSI 300, has decreased compared to the previous week, suggesting a more stable market environment [19].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese market, U.S.-China trade relations, and various sectors including consumer goods, technology, and dividend stocks. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S.-China Tariff Concerns** The U.S. has increased tariff threats against China, particularly targeting AI and chip design software exports, which may disrupt trade negotiations and worsen U.S.-China relations [1][3][4] 2. **Short-term Tariff Impact** The likelihood of imposing new tariffs in the short term is low due to the U.S. retail sector's peak ordering season, with a 90-day grace period before any potential tariffs take effect. However, risks may rise post-grace period [5][6] 3. **Judicial Intervention in Trade** The U.S. judicial system's involvement in trade disputes may gradually reduce the extremity of tariff increases, indicating a potential shift in tariff authority back to Congress in the long term [6] 4. **Dividend Stocks in June** June typically sees seasonal pressure on dividend stocks due to profit-taking, leading to lower excess returns and win rates despite being a peak dividend distribution period [7][8] 5. **Long-term Outlook for Dividend Stocks** Despite short-term volatility, dividend stocks remain strategically significant in a low-interest-rate environment, with high dividend yields observed in indices [9] 6. **Focus on Emerging Consumption Sectors** The market is currently focused on service consumption, new consumption, and biomedicine, which are supported by policies and show strong performance. Notable companies in these sectors are less crowded, presenting investment opportunities [10][11] 7. **Weakness in Traditional Consumer Sectors** Traditional consumer sectors like home appliances and automobiles are underperforming due to declining consumer interest and the cessation of government subsidies, leading to concerns about their future growth [12][13] 8. **Technology Sector Trends** The technology sector is expected to rebound in the short term, with a long-term focus on significant capital expenditures and breakthroughs in areas like AI and robotics [14] 9. **Anti-Tariff Themes** The anti-tariff theme is performing steadily, with sectors like rare earths benefiting. The market is gradually desensitizing to tariff concerns, avoiding significant volatility [15] 10. **Recommended Industries** Key recommended industries include beauty care, biomedicine, computing, non-ferrous metals, social services, agriculture, defense, and retail, all of which are seen as having good growth potential [16][17] 11. **Market Outlook** The market is expected to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern, supported by domestic demand resilience, with a focus on service consumption and emerging sectors as key growth drivers [18]

Market Performance - The bond market showed a more subdued performance on May 29, with government bond futures closing lower across the board, and interbank bond yields generally rising by 1-2 basis points [1][2] - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.65% to 118.690, while the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.26% to 108.475 [2] Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" rose by 1.25 basis points to 1.695%, and the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开10" increased by 2.5 basis points to 1.7385% [2] - In the North American market, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.37 basis points to 4.477% [3] Monetary Policy Insights - Institutions believe that monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose orientation and flexible operations, with room for both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [1][7] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1.5%-1.8% in the second half of the year [1][7] Market Activity - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 111.5 billion yuan on that day [5] - The Shibor short-term rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate remaining flat at 1.411% and the 7-day rate rising by 2.4 basis points to 1.602% [5] Investment Strategies - Xiangcai Securities recommends a dual-low strategy focusing on dividend assets and technology sectors, particularly in robotics, to achieve higher risk-adjusted returns [6][7] - CITIC Securities anticipates a GDP growth target of around 5.0% for the year, but expects marginal slowing of economic growth momentum in the second half [7]

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market saw significant increases in aerospace, military, and communication sectors after the May Day holiday, with multiple ETFs in these themes rising over 5% [1] - The ChiNext index experienced a rebound, with the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext index rising over 4% and 3% respectively [1] Group 2: Fund Flows in ETFs - The total net inflow into ETFs tracking the Sci-Tech sector exceeded 4 billion yuan, with the Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF leading with over 1.8 billion yuan in net inflow [2][3] - Conversely, ETFs tracking the CSI 300 experienced significant outflows, totaling over 5.7 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Bond ETFs Growth - Bond ETFs have seen explosive growth this year, with a total net inflow of nearly 50 billion yuan as of May 9, and the total scale surpassing 250 billion yuan, an increase of over 70 billion yuan compared to the end of last year [4] - Institutional investors, particularly insurance institutions, are the primary holders of bond ETFs, with their share exceeding 35% [4] Group 4: Changes in ChiNext Index - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will revise the ChiNext index compilation scheme, introducing an ESG negative exclusion mechanism and setting a weight adjustment factor to limit individual stock weights to no more than 20% during periodic adjustments, effective June 16 [2]

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 11 日 量化择时周报：重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 上周周报(20250505)认为：在风险偏好承压叠加市场格局触发下行趋势， 全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估值不高，建议在压力位突 破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 周二突破 30 日均线，随后迎来上涨。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 3.58%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 1.6%，沪深 300 上涨 2%，上证 50 上涨 1.93%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括国防军工、通信，国防军工上涨 6.44%，消费者服务、房 地产表现较弱，消费者服务微涨 0.3%。上周成交活跃度上，军工和通信资 金流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离开始收窄，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 4946，120 日线收于 5088 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之下， 两线差值由上周的-3.63%缩小至-2.80%，距离绝对值开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the proactive measures taken by various companies and institutions in the Chinese capital market to stabilize and enhance investor confidence amid market fluctuations, indicating a strong belief in the long-term growth of the Chinese economy. Group 1: Company Actions - China Electronics Technology Group announced a stock buyback exceeding 20 billion yuan, demonstrating confidence in the long-term economic outlook [1] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. plans to repurchase shares worth no less than 40 billion yuan and up to 80 billion yuan for employee incentive plans [3] - Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Guoxin have also announced stock purchases to support the stability of the capital market [5] Group 2: Market Reactions - On April 7, following the Qingming Festival, Asian stock markets experienced declines, with significant drops in the Nikkei 225 and the KOSPI, leading to a collective pullback in A-shares [7] - The total trading volume in the market reached approximately 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 460 billion yuan from the previous trading day [7] - Analysts suggest that the A-share adjustment is primarily driven by overseas pessimism, with a potential overlap of easing policies between the US and China later this year [7] Group 3: Institutional Investment - Central Huijin has increased its holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), indicating a commitment to maintaining market stability [10] - The trading volume of ETFs surged to 332.14 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of nearly 30% from the previous trading day [10][11] - Major ETFs, such as the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, recorded substantial trading volumes, with the highest reaching 243.15 billion yuan, the third-highest daily volume in its history [11] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions are taking advantage of market volatility by increasing their positions in undervalued stocks, particularly in the consumer and healthcare sectors [14][17] - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors with lower correlation to tariff impacts, such as aerospace, animal health, and high-end manufacturing, as potential beneficiaries of policy changes [17]

Macro Overview - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is expected to remain high in the future, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on China exceeding market expectations, leading to suppressed market risk appetite [3] - The U.S. tariff policy is seen as a temporary tool, with ongoing risks of fluctuating tax rates and expanded implementation scope [3] - Long-term risks include potential overestimation of tariff threats by the Trump administration and possible policy oscillations between "increases and exemptions," which could disrupt operational decisions for certain countries and industries [3] Domestic Macro - The economy showed a strong start in Q1, but growth may slow in Q2 due to external tariff disturbances [3] - Policy measures in Q1 have led to better-than-expected economic growth, but structural issues such as strong supply and weak demand persist, indicating a potential slowdown in recovery [3] - Increased external tariffs may negatively impact global economic growth expectations and put pressure on exports [3] - There is a need for continued policy support focused on domestic demand, particularly in employment, income, and social security, to address the weak demand situation [3] - As external tariff pressures rise, domestic policies are expected to respond actively to bolster domestic consumption and support steady economic recovery [3] A-share Strategy and Outlook - The global risk appetite is being suppressed by tariff pressures, leading to a phase of adjustment in A-shares after a revaluation [4] - The domestic economic fundamentals show a strong start, but internal momentum faces downward pressure, and market sentiment towards technology stocks has cooled [4] - The policy phase has shifted from negotiation to implementation, with a focus on observing the recovery of economic fundamentals [4] - The upcoming earnings season will shift market focus from valuation to performance fundamentals, with a potential shift towards high-quality and high-dividend stocks in the short term [4] - A defensive approach is recommended, with a focus on large-cap value/dividend stocks due to increased market volatility and uncertainty [4] - Patience is advised while waiting for the end of external uncertainties and potential domestic policy responses to boost market confidence [4] - The technology sector remains a key focus for the year despite current adjustments, with expectations of policy support to strengthen the sector [4] - Continuous attention to globalization and multi-asset opportunities is encouraged, particularly in overseas bonds and gold [4]