Investment Rating - The report rates the railway and highway industry as "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Insights - The freight volume in China is projected to reach 58.7 billion tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%. The growth rates for railway, highway, waterway, and civil aviation freight volumes are expected to be 2%, 3.4%, 3.2%, and 13.3% respectively [4]. - Fixed asset investment in transportation is expected to remain high, with an estimated completion of over 3.6 trillion yuan in 2025. The inter-regional personnel flow is projected to reach 66.86 billion person-times, growing by 3.5% year-on-year [4]. - Railway passenger and freight volumes are expected to maintain steady growth, with passenger volume reaching 4.601 billion people and freight volume reaching 5.277 billion tons in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 2% respectively [4]. - The highway sector is anticipated to improve in 2026 after a slowdown in growth in 2025, with freight volume growth of 3.4% in 2025 [4]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on high dividend stocks and potential market value management catalysts in the highway sector, with specific companies such as Anhui Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and Zhejiang Expressway being highlighted [4]. Summary by Sections Railway Transportation - In 2025, the total passenger turnover is expected to reach 1,639.556 billion person-kilometers, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%. The total freight turnover is projected to be 3,686.909 billion ton-kilometers, growing by 2.8% [4]. - The investment in railway fixed assets is expected to reach 901.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6% [4]. Highway Transportation - The growth rate of highway freight volume is expected to slow down in 2025 but is projected to improve in 2026 due to stable demand in highway logistics [4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the highway sector has two main investment themes for the year: traditional high dividend investments and potential market value management catalysts. Recommended companies include Wanhua Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and others [4].

稿源：掌上长沙 2026-01-31 22:44 吴桂英在全市重点工作推进会上强调 吴桂英指出，过去一年，全市经济运行总体平稳、质效向好、承压前行。我们要客观盘点发展成效，正视存在的 短板不足，增强慢进亦退的危机意识，以久久为功的定力抓实各项工作。要把高质量发展的导向牢牢树起来，践 行正确政绩观，推进内涵式发展行稳致远。要把稳增长摆在更加突出的位置，以有力举措进一步提高经济工作质 效，着力稳定市场预期、提振企业信心。要把内需主导作为重中之重，精准谋划储备项目，深入实施提振消费专 项行动，加速推进重大基础设施项目、重大产业项目。要把科产融合战略做深做实，提升科创竞争力，做大做强 先进制造业，加快发展现代服务业。要把改革开放抓出更好成效，进一步破解深层次矛盾和体制性障碍，大抓招 商引资，优化营商环境，稳住外贸基本盘。要把发展红线底线筑稳筑牢，办好民生实事，打好大气污染防治攻坚 战，抓好重点领域隐患整治，持续强化信访问题源头治理。 吴桂英强调，全市上下要增强"紧抓快干"的意识，弘扬"真抓实干"的作风，彰显"敢抓会干"的担当，展现开局之 年的关键之为。春节临近，要统筹抓好促发展、惠民生、保安全、守底线等各项工作，在新 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of special new special-purpose bonds has changed the traditional allocation logic of special-purpose bonds, and the allocation logic has become more complex due to regional economic and fiscal differences and the balance between economic development and "Three Guarantees" [4][7][18]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects", but in recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors, especially debt risk factors, has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the quota allocation has been "tailored to local conditions and precisely targeted", showing regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible and difficult to fully explain with objective factors. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments for municipalities will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [9][85][88]. - Some provinces have significant deviations in the actual allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas from the theoretical values. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas due to major project construction, while some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Special-purpose Bonds as the Main Local Financing Method - The scale of special-purpose bonds has been continuously increasing. As of the end of 2025, the stock of local special-purpose bonds in China was 37 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of the total stock of local government bonds. The net financing of special-purpose bonds increased significantly in 2020 and 2024, and the issuance scale and stock are expected to continue to rise [19]. - Special-purpose bonds can be divided into new special-purpose bonds, refinancing special-purpose bonds, and replacement special-purpose bonds. There are also special refinancing special-purpose bonds and special new special-purpose bonds for debt resolution [21]. 3.2 Deviation between Special-purpose Bond Investment and Physical Workload - In 2024 and 2025, new special-purpose bond funds were mainly invested in transportation infrastructure, municipal and industrial park infrastructure, and other fields. However, there may be a situation where "money waits for projects", and the progress of some special-purpose bond funds in forming physical workload is slow [25][30]. 3.3 Debt Resolution Factors Becoming an Important Consideration in Special-purpose Bond Allocation - The spatial distribution of special-purpose bond stocks is uneven. Since 2023, the marginal changes have reflected the policy orientation of "risk prevention". The issuance of refinancing special-purpose bonds in the western region has increased rapidly, and the proportion of debt resolution funds in key provinces is relatively high [37]. 3.4 Process and Results of New Special-purpose Bond Quota Allocation - **Principles**: New special-purpose bond quota allocation mainly considers five factors: financial strength, debt risk, construction demand, capital efficiency, and local applications, and is adjusted by a fluctuation coefficient. Overall, it follows the principle of "rewarding the excellent and punishing the inferior", but also pays attention to risk prevention [8][47]. - **Results**: There is a positive correlation between the new special-purpose bond quota and the actual in - place investment in fixed assets, but there are also some deviations. The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas can generally reflect the objective situation, but some provinces deviate from the trend, indicating that they may receive more special funds [53][57]. 3.5 Provincial Quota Allocation: From "Extensive Distribution" to "Precise Targeting" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the provincial level generally follows the logic of "following the projects". In recent years, the explanatory power of objective factors has decreased, and more attention is paid to management performance and local application factors. Since 2020, the allocation logic has shown regional heterogeneity [9][75][81]. 3.6 Municipal Quota Allocation: From "Rewarding the Excellent and Punishing the Inferior" to "Overall Coordination" - The allocation of new special-purpose bond quotas at the municipal level is more flexible, and the overall explanatory power of objective factors is weaker. It is speculated that the resource coordination of provincial governments will further reduce the explanatory power of objective factors [85][88]. 3.7 Deviation Calculation: Which Provinces Receive More Special-purpose Bond Funds? - Provinces such as Shandong, Guangdong, Anhui, Tianjin, Gansu, and Xinjiang have a large upward deviation in the actual quota allocation from the theoretical value, while Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have a large downward deviation. Some economic provinces may receive more quotas for major project construction, and some regions may receive more funds for debt resolution [10][90].

中经记者 孙丽朝 北京报道 2026年地方工业发展蓝图正在全面铺展。 近日，各地密集召开工业和信息化工作会议，既强调稳住工业经济基本盘，又将创新和培育新质生产力 置于突出位置，以力争"开门红"的奋进姿态，为现代化产业体系建设夯实根基。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年全国规模以上工业增加值比上年增长5.9%。工业生产较快增长，为实 现"十五五"良好开局筑牢坚实基础。业内专家指出，各地通过稳增长夯实基本盘、强创新培育新动能、 差异化布局优化生产力，将共同塑造中国工业经济多极发力、协同共进的高质量发展新格局。 对于2026年的区域工业经济形势，工信部信息通信经济专家委员会委员盘和林在接受《中国经营报》记 者采访时表示，预计2026年工业发展集中度将进一步提高，工业基础较好的东部沿海省份依然将在工业 发展上保持相对领先，尤其是珠三角和长三角两个工业集聚区域。传统工业大省将发挥产业集聚作用， 如长三角的江苏、大湾区的广东等制造业集聚区域，未来将继续挑起中国制造的大梁。 北京市社会科学院副研究员王鹏表示，预计2026年区域工业发展将呈现梯度联动格局：东部地区依托创 新优势引领高端化转型，中部省份通过产业承接与内需驱动实现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The government emphasizes the integration of investment in physical infrastructure and human capital to boost consumption and adapt to changing economic conditions [3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The government aims to address the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand by focusing on both physical and human investments [3]. - There is a need to shift investment priorities to improve infrastructure and public services, aligning with urban renewal and demographic trends [3]. Group 2: Consumption Enhancement - The strategy includes optimizing consumer supply to reflect the shift from goods consumption to service consumption and from uniform to diverse consumption [3]. - The government plans to create comprehensive scenarios that leverage local strengths and enhance innovation and service support [3]. Group 3: Employment and Policy Support - Efforts will be made to increase employment, reduce burdens, and improve policies to stimulate consumer spending [3]. - The government encourages committee members to actively contribute ideas and facilitate cooperation to promote consumption, investment, and stable growth [3].

北京时间1月29日凌晨，美联储2026年首次议息会议落下帷幕。最终决议毫无悬念：维持3.5%-3.75%的 基准利率不变，按下了此前连续三次降息的"暂停键"。这不是简单的政策观望，更不是对经济形势的盲 目乐观。深挖10:2的投票分歧、鲍威尔的强硬表态以及全球市场的连锁反应就能发现，这场"不降息"的 决定，是美联储在抗通胀、守独立、控溢出效应之间的艰难平衡，更暴露了当前全球货币政策的集体困 局。 但通胀问题仍未解决，核心PCE物价指数同比上涨3%，距离2%的目标还有差距，尤其是服务价格、租 金等领域降温缓慢。这种背景下，美联储内部分裂明显：10名委员支持维持利率，2名委员坚决主张降 息25个基点。分歧的本质，是"防通胀反弹"与"怕经济降温"两派的博弈，而最终的"不降息"，实则是选 择了"短期控风险优先"的策略。 博弈二：拒政治施压，守住央行独立性底线 这场"不降息"，更是美联储对白宫政治施压的直接回应。特朗普政府多次抨击美联储，要求大幅降息刺 激经济，甚至通过调查鲍威尔施压，试图干预货币政策走向。 博弈一：抗通胀vs稳增长，内部分歧摆上台面 美联储此次拒降息，核心矛盾是"通胀粘性"与"经济韧性"的对冲。最新数据 ...

业内人士指出，2026年置换债的快速推进，不仅有助于降低地方政府利息负担、优化债务结构，也为腾 出财政空间支持重大项目建设和民生保障提供支撑。东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳表示，一季度地 方债发行规模预计超2万亿元，其中再融资专项债占比近半，凸显"稳增长"与"防风险"双目标协同推 进。 新华财经上海1月28日电据新华财经专项债项目库显示，截至1月28日，年内各地已披露用于置换存量隐 性债务的地方政府再融资专项债规模超过3000亿元。从期限结构看，债券以10年期及以上品种为主。 根据公布的置换债发行方案，2024至2026年每年将安排约2万亿元置换债额度。2026年作为三年置换计 划的收官之年，政策节奏明显前倾。 截至发稿，全国已有多个省份披露2026年用于置换存量隐性债务的再融资专项债发行计划，合计披露的 计划规模达3027.8991亿元，已完成发行规模约2592.5亿元。其中，江苏、山东、浙江等省份已率先启动 发行，成为本轮化债政策"靠前发力"的重要抓手。 值得注意的是，根据相关安排，新疆于2024至2026年共获得648亿元用于置换存量隐性债务的地方政府 专项债务额度，每年分配216亿元，相关债券已于1月 ...

Economic Overview - Qinghai Province aims for a GDP growth of 4.1% by 2025, with per capita disposable income expected to rise by 5.1% and an urban unemployment rate of 5.4% [1] - In the previous year, the province's general public budget expenditure was 216.42 billion RMB, with a focus on implementing proactive macro policies and leveraging over 50 billion RMB in financial resources [1] Industry Performance - The agricultural and pastoral sector saw a value-added growth of 5.5%, with cattle and sheep output increasing by 5.2% and 1.9% respectively, and total grain production at 1.193 million tons [1] - The industrial sector's value-added output grew by 7.6%, with 85 new industrial enterprises established and 20 green factories created, while high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors grew by 9.5% and 10.7% respectively [1] Service Sector and Consumption - The service sector showed stability with transportation, warehousing, and postal services growing by 8.5%, and total passenger and cargo turnover increasing by 9.5% [2] - Consumer activity was boosted by a 2.03 billion RMB "trade-in" subsidy, leading to a consumption increase of 21.5 billion RMB, alongside the establishment of flagship stores for brands like McDonald's and Xiaomi [2] Investment and Infrastructure - Significant infrastructure developments include the completion of the third phase of Xining Airport, expansion of the Ge'ku Railway, and the opening of 11 national and provincial highways, contributing to a 24% increase in investment funds to 79.56 billion RMB [2] - The province is enhancing its business environment and integrating into the national market, with a 17.6% increase in total import and export value, and notable growth in lithium-ion battery and salt lake chemical product exports [2]

原标题： 陈刚指出，习近平总书记在省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神专题研讨班开班 式上的重要讲话，高屋建瓴、立意深远、催人奋进，具有很强的政治性、理论性、针对性、指导性，为 我们深刻领会把握党的二十届四中全会精神、扎实做好各项工作提供了根本遵循。我们要深刻领悟"两 个确立"的决定性意义，坚决做到"两个维护"，自觉把思想和行动统一到习近平总书记重要讲话精神和 党中央决策部署上来，登高望远强化战略思维、聚焦重点狠抓贯彻落实、锻造过硬作风提高能力水平， 自觉为人民出政绩、以实干出政绩。 陈刚在2026年一季度全区经济发展调度会上强调 陈刚指出，过去一年，自治区党委、政府团结带领全区上下锚定目标、铆足干劲，拼经济、净生 态、转作风，工作思路更宽了、经济运行更稳了、发展动能更强了、"朋友圈"更大了、营商环境更好 了、干部作风更实了，取得了多年未有的优异成绩。实践证明，广西正迎来历史最好发展时期，高质量 发展其时已至、其势渐成、其兴可待。但越是形势向好，越要清醒看到存在的短板和面临的挑战。必须 将"实干为要、创新为魂，用业绩说话、让人民评价"的导向牢牢树立起来，把心思用在干实事上，把精 力投到抓落实上，把 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 1 月 24 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62% 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 0.10%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 3.38%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 2.82%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率与上周持平，收于 1.00%；十年国债收益率下行 1BP 至 1.83%，活跃十 年国债期货本周上涨 0.12%。 资产配置建议 2025 年经济增长目标圆满实现，2026 年稳增长需要财政政策和货币政策 协同发力。2025 年我国经济经历了美国关税政策给全球贸易带来的不确 定性冲击，出现了名义 GDP 和实际 GDP 同比增速倒挂的情况，内需对经 济增长前景预期偏弱导致需求疲弱，工业企业利润同比增速整体偏低等情 况，为稳定经济，我国实施了积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，推 出"两重""两新"政策支持经济转型升级和内需有效释放，落实"反内卷"政 策引导实体经济持续向好发展，最终实现了全年经济增长 5%的目标。2026 年全球经济 ...