Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures showed a relatively strong and volatile trend; the soybean No.1 futures showed a rebound and oscillation trend [1]. - On August 4, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to short - covering, but the abundant global supply, including the Brazilian soybean harvest and strong US soybean production prospects, continued to suppress the upward momentum of soybean prices. Concerns about Sino - US trade tensions also limited market sentiment. The US soybean crop was still in good condition in early August, and the short - term weather in the US Midwest was expected to be mild and dry, with more mild and rainy weather possible in the next 6 - 15 days. As of August 3, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, down 1 percentage point from a week ago, in line with market expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Futures Prices - DCE soybean No.1 2509 closed at 4117 yuan/ton during the day session, down 9 yuan (-0.22%), and 4133 yuan/ton during the night session, up 7 yuan (+0.17%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3024 yuan/ton during the day session, up 20 yuan (+0.67%), and 3045 yuan/ton during the night session, up 24 yuan (+0.79%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 994.5 cents per bushel, up 6.5 cents (+0.66%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 285.1 dollars per short - ton, up 4.7 dollars (+1.68%) [1]. 2. Spot Prices - In Shandong, the soybean meal price was 2940 - 2960 yuan/ton, with various basis adjustments compared to the futures contract M2509 and M2601, and price changes were mostly flat or up by 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - In East China, the price was 2920 - 2980 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan compared to the previous day, with different basis levels for different contract months [1]. - In South China, the price was 2940 - 2970 yuan/ton, up 20 - 30 yuan compared to the previous day, and also had different basis adjustments for different contract months [1]. 3. Industrial Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 16.7 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 15.5 million tons two trading days ago [1]. - The inventory data for the previous week was not available, and the inventory two weeks ago was 96.1 million tons [1]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal was +1, and that of soybean No.1 was 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day session of the reporting day [3].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline, approaching a three-week low near $3300, influenced by a strong dollar and expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve [3][4] - A "multiple top" formation has been identified in the gold price chart, indicating strong resistance above $3434, with a critical support level at $3300; a breach of this level could lead to further technical selling [3][4] - If the support at $3300 is lost, further declines towards $3200 may occur, while a rebound could face initial resistance at $3340 and stronger resistance at $3370 [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Data Impact - The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial; if no dovish signals are released, gold may enter a new technical downtrend [5] - Investor sentiment remains cautious, focusing on the FOMC meeting and key U.S. economic data [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices are supported by strong summer demand and tight inventories, with potential for price increases if key resistance levels are broken [8] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. pressure on Russia and upcoming trade policy changes, contribute to market uncertainty [7][10] - Technical indicators suggest that if WTI crude oil prices break above $68.30, they could reach $70, while a drop below $65.20 may lead to a sideways trading pattern [8]

Core Insights - Centene Corp (NYSE:CNC) stock increased by 3.9% to $27.75 despite reporting an adjusted second-quarter loss of 16 cents per share, which was worse than the projected loss of 11 cents per share. However, revenue exceeded estimates, leading to a recovery in stock price after significant premarket gains [1] - The stock has been recovering from a 55% year-to-date deficit, primarily due to a 40% drop on July 1 when the company withdrew its 2025 forecast. The shares reached an eight-year low of $26.66 but are now testing the 10-day moving average [2] - Options trading activity has shown a strong preference for calls, with 83,508 calls purchased compared to 12,760 puts over the past two weeks, resulting in a call/put volume ratio of 6.53, indicating high call buying activity [3] - Recently, there has been a shift towards puts, with 58,000 puts traded, which is 26 times the average intraday volume and more than double the number of calls. The September 22.50 put is particularly popular, suggesting some traders may be hedging against potential declines [4] - Short interest has increased by 26% in the last two reporting periods, indicating growing bearish sentiment amidst the stock's technical challenges [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent agreement between the US and Japan on a 15% reciprocal tariff is seen as a positive surprise, boosting market sentiment and leading to a significant rebound in Japanese stocks, particularly in the automotive sector [1][2]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The US will implement a 15% reciprocal tariff on Japan, while Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and open its markets for rice and automobiles [2]. - The initial plan was to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese imports starting August 1, but the new agreement is viewed positively for Japanese companies, allowing them to absorb the lower tariff rate [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the Nikkei index surged by 1,396 points, closing at 41,171 points, marking a 3.51% increase, the highest in about a year [1]. - Automotive stocks, which had been heavily sold off, saw strong rebounds, with Toyota's stock rising by 13.65% and Honda by 10.34% [3]. - Financial stocks also experienced significant gains, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group up 4.67% and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group up 5.52% [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe this agreement could mark a turning point in market dynamics, with July 23 potentially being remembered as a key historical date [5]. - The upcoming earnings season is expected to bring more positive outlooks from companies, further supporting market growth [3].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent decline in soybean prices and questions whether trade agreements can provide new support for the market [1] - It highlights increased volatility in corn prices, raising concerns about whether weather issues might trigger short covering [1] Group 1: Soybean Market - Soybean prices have experienced a downturn, prompting discussions on potential support mechanisms such as trade agreements [1] - The impact of trade agreements on soybean prices remains uncertain, indicating a need for close monitoring of market developments [1] Group 2: Corn Market - Corn prices are showing heightened volatility, which could be influenced by weather-related factors [1] - There is speculation that adverse weather conditions may lead to short covering among traders, affecting overall market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The core message from the Federal Reserve's John Williams indicates that the impact of tariffs on the economy will soon become apparent, leading to a slowdown in economic growth and a cautious stance on monetary policy [3][12] - The market's reaction to macroeconomic changes, such as tariffs and economic slowdown, will ultimately be reflected in trading behaviors within capital markets [3][12] Group 2 - Ordinary investors often focus on surface-level news and fail to recognize the true actions of market participants, which can lead to anxiety over trading decisions [5][10] - Two case studies illustrate the difference in trading behaviors: "Shenzhou Cell" showed clear institutional involvement in short covering, while "Hua Dong Pharmaceutical" appeared to be driven by short-term funds [6][9] Group 3 - Quantitative data can reveal market patterns, with specific indicators showing the level of institutional activity in trading behaviors [11][12] - Understanding how funds will respond to macroeconomic factors is crucial for determining investment returns, rather than solely focusing on the economic indicators themselves [12][14] Group 4 - Recommendations for investors include avoiding being swayed by surface news, distinguishing between market noise and real signals, and valuing quantitative data in trading behavior analysis [16]

Core Insights - Duolingo Inc's shares have experienced a decline of 4.7%, currently priced at $360.67, marking the eighth consecutive weekly loss and a significant drop from the record high of $544.93 on May 14, although still showing an 11% year-to-date gain [1] Group 1 - The stock is approaching its 200-day moving average, indicating a historically bullish signal for potential buyers [2] - Duolingo's stock is within 0.75 of the trendline's 20-day average true range (ATR), having spent over 80% of the last 10 days and two months above this level. In the past three years, similar conditions led to an average gain of 26.2% one month later, potentially bringing the stock back to $455 [3] Group 2 - Short interest has increased, now representing 6.1% of the stock's available float, suggesting potential for a short squeeze if the stock rebounds [4] - The 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.67 indicates a higher level of pessimism among options traders, ranking above 93% of readings from the past year, which could provide tailwinds for the stock [4]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a bumper harvest is suppressing both bottom-fishing buying and short-covering in the soybean market, raising questions about whether CBOT soybean prices can stabilize above the $10 mark [1] Group 1 - The anticipation of high yields is impacting market dynamics, leading to reduced buying interest from investors looking to capitalize on lower prices [1] - Short-covering activities are also being restrained due to the prevailing outlook of abundant supply in the soybean market [1] - The critical price level of $10 for CBOT soybeans is under scrutiny as market participants assess the balance between supply expectations and demand [1]

Group 1: Stock and Bond - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2] - Market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, and it is advisable to hold light long positions in treasury bonds [2] Group 2: Black Sector - Major steel mills in Shanxi Province have restricted crude steel production by about 6 million tons. Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished products may shrink. Attention should be paid to the implementation of specific policy documents. There is no obvious increase on the demand side, and the black sector has risen significantly driven by sentiment [3] Group 3: Gold - Trump's latest tariff policy has boosted the market's risk - aversion sentiment and the price of gold, but the rising US dollar has suppressed gold. The minutes of the Fed's June meeting are hawkish, and the market expects the Fed to postpone the time of interest rate cuts. Gold is expected to maintain high - level consolidation [4] Group 4: Logs - The spot market price is running weakly. The price in the Shandong market has dropped by 10 yuan, and the price in the Jiangsu market has remained stable. The expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply center will move down, the supply pressure will ease, and the daily average outbound volume will remain above 60,000 cubic meters. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on log prices [5] Group 5: Natural Rubber - The weather in Southeast Asian producing areas has eased, and rubber tapping work has gradually resumed. The demand for glue series has dragged down, showing a differentiation from the price of raw material cup lump. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has declined. The contradiction between supply and demand at both ends has not been significantly alleviated, and the price of natural rubber continues to be under pressure [6] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The weather in the US Midwest is good, and South American soybeans have a bumper harvest and continue to be exported. Due to the good performance of US soybean export sales, short - covering has boosted US soybeans. About 10 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in July. The oil mill operating rate remains high, the oil mill pick - up volume has declined, the bean meal inventory has continued to rise, and bean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7] Group 7: Oil and Chemicals - The oil price may return to narrow - range fluctuations due to the lack of clear guidance. PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with the oil price; the supply - demand expectation of PTA is weakening and it will follow the cost fluctuations in the short term; although the raw materials have recovered in the short term, the supply - demand of MEG is weakening, and the upward space of the disk is suppressed [8] Group 8: Pig - Currently, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding side is strong, and the pig sales in many northern regions are smooth. The pig price may continue to rise in the short term. After entering July, the pig supply in the south is expected to be tight, which may take over from the north and lead a new round of price increases [9]

Core Viewpoint - Intel's stock price surged by 7.2% to $23.59, despite a general market decline, raising confusion among analysts due to the lack of substantial positive news driving this increase [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The semiconductor sector has seen a rotation of funds, which may have contributed to Intel's stock price increase [4]. - Over the past month, semiconductor stocks in the Russell 3000 index averaged a return of approximately 10%, while Intel's stock rose about 15% in the same period, despite a 31% decline over the past 12 months [4][6]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Citigroup analyst Christopher Danely raised the target price for Intel but maintained a "hold" rating, indicating that the price increase was not directly linked to this adjustment [3]. - Only 6% of analysts currently rate Intel as a "buy," significantly lower than the average 63% "buy" rating for semiconductor stocks in the Russell 3000 index, reflecting a cautious long-term outlook for Intel [6]. Group 3: Short Selling Dynamics - Short covering may have played a role in the stock's rise, as short sellers borrow and sell stocks hoping to repurchase them at lower prices [6]. - Intel's short interest is approximately 3%, making it a relatively popular short target, with a total short value of about $3 billion, the highest among semiconductor stocks [6].