Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has shifted from panic to optimism over the past three months, but some strategists warn that the market may be overly optimistic given the uncertainties ahead [2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Investors are feeling reassured by the framework agreement between the U.S. and China, leading to a generally optimistic market outlook regarding the continuation of tariff suspension measures [2]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of nearly 19% from its record high in February to the lows in April, but rebounded sharply after the announcement of tariff suspensions [2]. - The 50-day rebound since the April 8 low has been 19.8%, marking it as the ninth largest increase for the S&P 500 since 1950, indicating potential for further gains in the coming months [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - The recent fiscal policy changes, including a projected increase of $3.4 trillion in government debt over the next decade, have raised concerns about the sustainability of economic growth and public debt levels [3]. - Analysts are questioning whether tariff revenues, which amounted to $15.6 billion in April alone, will significantly contribute to economic growth and help mitigate public debt increases over the next ten years [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - Some strategists suggest that the current stock market gains may have outpaced the underlying fundamentals, leading to considerations for reducing exposure in overvalued sectors, particularly small-cap stocks, industrials, and consumer discretionary [4]. - Investment recommendations include holding cash for potential market corrections or reallocating to sectors perceived as more attractive, such as technology, financials, energy, utilities, and communication services [4].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor Villeroy has expressed concerns regarding the slow economic growth in France [1] Economic Growth - Villeroy highlighted that the economic growth rate in France is currently too slow, indicating a need for improvement in economic performance [1]

Group 1 - Vietnam's economy is expected to grow faster in the second quarter, driven by manufacturing and trade, with a year-on-year growth of 7.67% [1] - This estimate will bring the economic growth rate for the first half of the year to approximately 7.31%, compared to a growth rate of 6.93% in the first three months [1] - Manufacturing in Vietnam grew by 10% in the first half of the year, and exports increased by 14.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of 7.63 billion USD [1]

Core Insights - Thailand's economic growth in May was slightly lower than in April [1] Economic Performance - The economic growth rate for May was reported to be below the rate observed in April [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to revise the GDP growth forecast for the second quarter, projecting it to be between 5.2% and 5.4% due to strong performance in industrial and service sectors, alongside a notable rebound in consumer spending [2][5]. Economic Overview - In May, industrial production growth was recorded at 5.8%, while the service sector's production index grew by 6.2%. Consumer spending showed a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, up from 5.1% in April [20][25]. - Investment growth has slowed, with fixed asset investment growth at 2.7% in May, down from 3.5% in April. Real estate investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12.0% [20][38]. Consumer Spending Insights - The article identifies several factors contributing to the unexpected rise in consumer spending, including accelerated "trade-in" programs, early promotional activities for the 618 shopping festival, and an increase in holidays compared to the previous year [6][10]. - Specific categories such as home appliances saw a significant increase in sales, with a 53% growth in May. Online shopping also surged, with an 8.2% increase compared to the previous year [27][28]. Consumer Potential Analysis - The article highlights five groups with increasing consumer potential: retirees, individuals with dividend income from listed companies, urban operators, rural wage earners, and those engaging in preventive savings [3][7]. - However, it also notes that certain groups, such as borrowers and urban private sector employees, require additional support to enhance their consumption potential [17][18]. Detailed Economic Data - The report provides a detailed analysis of May's economic data, indicating that the consumer price index (CPI) remained stable at -0.1%, while the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% [21][22]. - The unemployment rate in urban areas decreased to 5.0%, reflecting a slight improvement in the job market [22]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth has been primarily driven by sectors such as infrastructure and manufacturing, with manufacturing investment growth at 8.5% for the first five months of the year [38][40]. - The report also notes a decline in real estate investment, with new construction area down by 19.3% year-on-year in May [29][30].

同时将主要再融资利率从2.4%下调至 2.15%，边际贷款利率从2.65%下调至2.4%，均符合市场预期。 | ं | 欧元区欧洲央行边际贷款利率 | ★★★ | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.65% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ੋ | 欧元区欧洲央行主要再融资利率 | ★★★ | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.4% | | ं | 欧元区欧洲央行存款便利利率 | ★★★ | 2% | 2% | 2.25% | 此外，欧央行坚持其对未来利率路径的措辞，欧央行表示，决心确保通胀率持续稳定在2%，管理委员会 准备好调整所有工具。 关税影响方面，欧央行表示，贸易政策不确定性将影响投资和出口，贸易升级将导致经济增长和通胀放 缓。 欧洲央行利率决议公布后，欧元兑美元EUR/USD短线快速上升后回落，报1.1416。 通胀率跌破2%、经济遭受关税威胁 本周的数据显示，欧元区5月份通胀率降至1.9%，为8个月来首次跌破2%，也是2021 年以来第二次跌破 2%。经济放缓的原因是服务业价格涨幅放缓，工资增长也有所降温，这支持工资增长在赶上通胀后将会 放缓的观点。 ...

金十数据5月30日讯，亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型预计美国第二季度GDP增速为3.8%，此前预计为 2.2%。 亚特兰大联储大幅上调美国Q2经济增速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian economy's GDP growth of 2.2% in the first quarter exceeded expectations, but underlying issues suggest a more concerning economic reality [1] Economic Performance - The 2.2% annualized GDP growth was driven by a 6.7% surge in exports and an increase in corporate inventories [1] - Preliminary estimates for April indicate a 0.1% month-over-month growth, primarily supported by the commodities sector [1] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand remains weak, reflecting declining household confidence and businesses scaling back or canceling investment plans due to high uncertainty in trade policies [1] - Early tracking for the second quarter suggests a significant slowdown, with projected growth of only 0.5%, indicating potential overcapacity in the economy [1]

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate stabilized above 1.3300, with the latest rate at 1.3308, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01% as the market digests the recent economic data [1] - The UK economy grew by 0.7% in Q1, significantly surpassing the expected 0.6% and the previous quarter's growth of 0.1%, indicating stronger economic performance [1] - The market's expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England have decreased, with projections for a cut in 2025 dropping from 70 basis points to 44 basis points following the recent economic data [1] Group 2 - Hawkish comments from Bank of England officials have influenced market expectations, with a key speech from committee member Swati Dhingra anticipated [2] - The GBP/USD exchange rate remains trapped in a narrow range around 1.3300, with buying pressure preventing a drop below the 50-day EMA at approximately 1.3110 [2] - UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves emphasized the significance of trade agreements with the US and India despite facing economic headwinds [1]

供应紊乱可能会打压经济增速，并推高通胀。 美联储理事Barr：美国经济稳健，但贸易问题给前景蒙上阴影。 ...