Group 1 - The dollar has strengthened against almost all major currencies at the beginning of the quarter, driven by safe-haven buying amid concerns over regional banks in the U.S. [1] - The upcoming release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) is highly anticipated, with economists expecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, the highest since May 2024 [1][5] - Market sentiment is leaning towards a bullish outlook for the dollar, with suggestions to buy the dollar in the coming weeks [1][5] Group 2 - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has seen a slight increase of about 0.4% this week, but it is down approximately 7% for the year, potentially marking the worst annual performance since 2017 [6] - The dollar weakened significantly in the first half of the year due to market disruptions caused by tariffs, but there are signs of foreign investors still entering U.S. stocks and bonds [7] - Options traders have become more optimistic about the dollar, with a preference for call options betting on the dollar's strength over the next three months [7] Group 3 - Standard Chartered's Steven Englander predicts a comprehensive rebound of the dollar, forecasting the euro to drop from approximately 1.16 to 1.12 dollars by mid-next year [10] - Englander believes that the market is underestimating the risk of a dollar rebound, suggesting that the Fed's room for rate cuts is smaller than expected, which could support the dollar [10]

和讯猎报 10.22 22:42:15 周三 【德国商业银行分析师：美国通胀数据难改美元走势及美联储决策】10月22日，德国商业银行分析师 Antje Praefcke称，周五公布的美国通胀数据或难对美元产生持久影响。 她指出，延迟发布的数据能揭 示关税政策是否推高通胀，但不太可能改变美联储下周会议决策基调，多数联储成员认为关税对通胀影 响是暂时的。 Praefcke认为，即便通胀数据超预期，美联储仍可能在10月29日降息，因其更关注就业状 况，近期劳动力市场恶化提供了降息依据。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【德国商业银行分析师:美国通胀数据难改美元走 势及美联储决策】10月22日,德国商业银行分析师 Antje Praefcke称,周五公布的美国通胀数据或难对 美元产生持久影响。她指出,延迟发布的数据能揭 示关税政策是否推高通胀,但不太可能改变美联储 下周会议决策基调,多数联储成员认为关税对通胀 影响是暂时的。Praefcke认为,即便通胀数据超预 期,美联储仍可能在10月29日降息,因其更关注就 业状况,近期劳动力市场恶化提供了降息依据。 本文由 Al 算法生成，仅作参考， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by geopolitical tensions and market dynamics, with a notable increase of over 64% this year, despite recent fluctuations and a potential for further upward movement in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold reached a high of $4,274.53 per ounce due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid renewed conflict in the Middle East, but later retreated to around $4,247.30 [1]. - The gold market is currently characterized by a fierce tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, influenced by geopolitical risks, trade relations, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [2]. - The price of gold has seen a significant increase, touching a historical high of $4,379.38 before closing at $4,247.17, marking a weekly gain of 5.69% and a ninth consecutive week of increases [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Key support for gold is identified at $4,200, with resistance at $4,280; maintaining above $4,200 is crucial for the upward trend [4]. - The recent high of $4,274.6 was followed by a drop to $4,218, indicating potential short-term volatility, but the overall bullish trend remains intact [4]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying on dips around $4,200-$4,205 and selling on rallies near $4,275-$4,280, with strict stop-loss measures recommended [5].

Group 1: High-Frequency Tracking - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has increased again, impacting global risk assets, with a notable rise in safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries [10][11]. - September exports exceeded expectations due to a combination of low base effects and improved external demand [12]. - Domestic industrial production has shown signs of decline, while infrastructure construction has weakened, although travel activity remains high [13]. Group 2: Data Commentary - Inflation has surpassed expectations, driven by rising prices in commodities, which have significantly influenced upstream PPI, and increases in gold and appliance prices affecting downstream CPI [14]. - The surge in M1 growth may be partially attributed to accelerated fiscal spending [15]. Group 3: Hot Topics - The article discusses the potential future direction of U.S. tariffs from an American perspective, providing a framework for understanding the implications of tariff strategies [9]. - The transition period between old and new economic forces is highlighted, raising questions about the impact of external factors on strong export performance and the evolving domestic demand pressures [8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the rising uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations, highlighting recent developments and their implications for global markets [5][9]. - It emphasizes the strong performance of exports in September, attributing this to a combination of low base effects and improved external demand [11]. - The article notes a decline in industrial production and infrastructure investment, while mobility indicators show a continued high level of movement among the population [12]. Group 2 - The analysis of inflation reveals three key drivers: rising prices of commodities boosting upstream PPI, and increases in gold and appliance prices significantly impacting downstream CPI [13]. - The article points out that the surge in M1 growth may be partially due to accelerated fiscal spending [15]. - It provides insights into the potential future direction of U.S. tariff policies from an American perspective, offering a structured framework for understanding these developments [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to various factors, including supply-demand dynamics, market sentiment, and external economic conditions, indicating both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends [2][5]. Group 1: Logic Behind Gold Price Increase - Gold prices are fundamentally driven by supply and demand, but are influenced by unique factors such as geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and inflation [2][3]. - Historical instances of significant gold price increases occurred during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, suggesting that external shocks can lead to substantial price movements [2][3]. Group 2: Strategies for Individuals Facing Rising Gold Prices - Individuals can consider various investment methods in gold, including physical gold, gold ETFs, and gold mining stocks, each with different risk and return profiles [4]. - Gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset, particularly during times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions, which drives demand and subsequently prices [3][4]. - The impact of inflation and central bank policies, particularly regarding currency valuation and interest rates, plays a crucial role in gold price dynamics [3][6]. Group 3: Future Gold Price Trends - Future gold price movements will depend on several key factors, including global economic conditions, Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical risks, and the potential impact of emerging technologies like digital currencies [5][6]. - A cautious approach is recommended for investors, suggesting that gold can be a part of a diversified asset allocation strategy, particularly for those seeking to hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty [5][6].

| | | | | Difference from July | | | Difference from April | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Projections | | 2025 WEO Update1 | | | 2025 WEO1 | | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | | World Output | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | | Advanced Economies | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | | United States | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | | Euro Area | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | | Germany | -0.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC believes that the US dollar is likely to weaken again, with expectations of hitting a bottom in early next year [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - HSBC's global foreign exchange research head states that the US dollar typically weakens when the Federal Reserve resumes a loose monetary policy and the US avoids recession [1]

（文章来源：新华财经） 汇丰全球外汇研究主管保罗·梅克尔在报告中指出："当美联储重启宽松周期，而美国经济又免于衰退 时，历史经验表明美元将会走弱，这一规律很难被打破。" 虽然关于美国经济重新加速的讨论，以及近期法国和日本的政治局势动荡，确实值得让人思考美元自7 月以来的横盘走势，但市场心态变幻莫测。相信美元走强的渴望固然诱人，但现在摒弃看跌观点为时尚 早。梅克尔预计美元将在明年初触底。 新华财经北京10月14日电关于美元是否已经触底，市场上争论激烈，但汇丰银行认为美元很可能还将再 度走弱。 ...

Group 1 - The recent strength of the US dollar continues despite expectations of a rate cut, as no other currency has emerged to surpass the dollar's dominance, indicating that while the dollar's position is challenged, it remains robust [1] - Global demand for US Treasuries and the dollar has increased due to economic instability in Europe, particularly in France, and currency depreciation in Japan, leading to a favorable outlook for US debt holdings [1] - The policies implemented aim to maintain the strength of the US dollar amidst global economic fluctuations [1] Group 2 - Gold prices opened at 3893 and rose to 4058 by Thursday, followed by a pullback to 3943, indicating strong upward momentum despite fluctuations [2] - The daily chart shows a potential high engulfing pattern, making the closing price critical for determining future price movements, whether it will continue to decline or rebound [2] - Current resistance levels for gold are between 4040 and 4050, while support levels are between 3900 and 3920, suggesting a range-bound trading environment [4]