图片来源：Wind 图片来源：Wind 12月25日盘中，离岸人民币对美元汇率续创15个月以来新高，升破7.0元关口。 Wind数据显示，截至25日10:29，离岸人民币对美元汇率报6.9999元，较前收盘价上涨77个基点，盘中 最高报6.9981元，升破7元关口。 在岸人民币方面，Wind数据显示，截至25日10:28，该市场汇率报7.0073元，较前收盘价上涨88个基 点，盘中最高报7.0061元。 "近期人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精准调控与市场预期转向等多种因素共 同作用的结果。"国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示。 庞溟分析，本轮人民币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。市场预期，伴随美联储继续开展降 息，将进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提供外部升值空间。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，临近年底，企业结汇需求增加，带动人民币季节性走强；特别是近 期人民币持续走强后，前期累积的结汇需求有可能加速释放。 "人民币持续升值，会增大国内资本市场对外资的吸引力，直接增加外资的汇兑收益。就当前来说，汇 市走强有助于提振国内资本市场信心。"王青说。 对于人民币汇率升破7元关口， ...

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) index is lower again on Tuesday, trading not far above its 2025 low. After a strong gain in the weeks following the November 2024 election of Donald Trump, the greenback declined sharply throughout the first half of 2025 and has remained in a choppy pattern near multi-year low levels for the past few months. The dollar's large 2025 drop initially was mostly accompanied by expected broader market reaction, with things like stocks, gold and bitcoin (BTC) all rising sharply to n ...

The dollar was hovering near a one-week low ahead of a slew of U.S. economic data in holiday-thinned trade.The delayed third-quarter U.S. economic growth report and durable goods orders for October will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Industrial production data for November are due at 9:15 a.m. ET while the Richmond Fed's manufacturing survey for December and Conference Board's consumer confidence survey for December are at 10 a.m. ET.Any weakness in the data could add to U.S. rate-cut expectations, ...

数据来源：ICE，Wind资讯 2025年以来，美元总体走弱。上半年，美元汇率明显贬值，从年初的110附近下行至年中低点的96.98，此后持续低位震荡。四季度，随着关税局势略有缓 和，美元汇率有所回升，但仍在100点以下徘徊。与传统认识相比，2025年以来的美元走势有以下三点不同。 一是不符合关税加征国汇率应升值的认识。特朗普第一任期内六次对华加征关税，离岸人民币均在消息宣布后迅速贬值。但在此次特朗普宣布加征"对等关 税"后，美元对主要贸易伙伴货币汇率普遍贬值。相反，在美关税出现缓和迹象时，美元反而升值。 图1 美"对等关税"缓和反而引发美元升值 内容提要 2025年以来，美元总体走弱，有以下三方面原因。从政策面看，特朗普政府经济政策是本轮美元贬值的直接原因。从资金面看，外国投资结构变化导致美元 波动放大。从基本面看，美国经济增长有所放缓，未能对美元汇率形成支撑。未来，欧、日等经济体经济走弱、特朗普极端政策碰壁、美股市保持吸引力等 因素有望支持美元汇率，美元在短期内大幅走弱可能性不大，但汇率波动幅度或将变大。长期看，美元国际货币地位或将受到挑战。 一、2025年以来美元走势及值得关注的情况 二是不符合高息国汇 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a recent high of $4,374.38 per ounce, and the market sentiment is subdued as the holiday season approaches [1][2] - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which is lower than the expected 3.1%, suggesting easing inflation pressures that could support the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy [1][2] - Despite the weak CPI data typically favoring gold, the immediate market reaction saw gold prices initially decline before rebounding, indicating a complex market environment [2] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with prices nearing historical highs, but the environment post-2025 may not be as favorable for gold [2] - The current trading range for gold is identified as $4,375 to $4,250, with a smaller range of $4,350 to $4,280, indicating potential for high-level fluctuations [2][3] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains in a strong bullish trend, with key resistance levels at $4,360-$4,380 and support levels at $4,310-$4,290 for the upcoming week [3]

另外俄乌局势方面，在本周末美国与俄罗斯官员会晤之前，美国总统特朗普表示，他相信结束俄乌冲突 的谈判"正在接近某种结果"。一位白宫官员说，特朗普特使威特科夫和库什纳计划于本周末在迈阿密会 见一个俄罗斯代表团，他们将继续努力促使俄乌双方达成协议，以结束冲突。 【最新白银td行情解析】 日图来看，昨日白银td小幅上涨但涨幅减弱，今日白银td震荡走跌，相对强弱指数(RSI)在1小时图上显 示处于中性，布林带向上开口，等待后续上涨力度，白银td走势下方关注14500-15000支撑；上方关注 15400-16000阻力。 【要闻速递】 因为白银是以美元计价的商品，美元的走势影响白银的走势。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场目前仅为1 月份美联储降息定价26.6%的概率，此前连续三次会议已各降息25个基点。这表明市场对美元未来强势 的信心有限，DXY仍可能在高位承压震荡。 投资者还将关注密歇根大学消费者信心指数及其通胀预期数据，这些指标将为美元短期走势提供进一步 指引。总体来看，美元指数的反弹更多属于技术性修复，而中长期仍需关注美国通胀和就业数据对政策 预期的影响。 今日周五(12月19日)欧盘时段，白银td目前交投 ...

12月19日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，沪锡期货主力合约开盘报337000.00元/吨，今日 盘中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪锡主力最高触及342890.00元，下方探低334680.00元，涨幅达1.96% 附近。 目前来看，沪锡行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪锡后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 铜冠金源期货指出，美国11月CPI通胀低于预期，美元先跌后涨。今日日本央行召开利率会议，市场情 绪谨慎。刚果金武装冲突缓和，供应端扰动支撑减弱，同时下游对高价锡接受度承压，预计库存持续累 增。短期宏观偏紧，基本面利好逐步消化，锡价上冲动能边际减弱，追涨谨慎，关注今日库存数据及持 仓变化。 五矿期货表示，短期虽然当前锡市需求疲软，且供给有好转预期，但下游库存低位情形下，议价能力有 限，短期价格预计跟随市场风偏变化波动。操作方面，建议观望为主。国内主力合约参考运行区间： 300000-350000元/吨，海外伦锡参考运行区间：39000-43000美元/吨。 新湖期货分析称，短期基本面偏弱，对锡价有一定压力。不过宏观政策面的乐观预期主导资金情绪。短 期锡价或高位震荡，不建议追高。关注后期 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment in 2026 will be influenced by U.S. midterm election pressures, defense demands in Europe and Japan, and China's focus on stable growth, leading to continued policy easing in the first half of the year [2] - The AI boom is expected to enhance efficiency and stock valuations but may also exacerbate job losses and economic K-shaped divergence [2] - The report suggests that the second half of 2026 may see a rebound in inflation due to global liquidity easing, a weaker dollar, and China's anti-involution efforts, potentially causing volatility in high-valuation assets [2] Industry Outlook Chinese Internet Software - 2026 is seen as a critical year for competing for user attention in the AI era, with a focus on lowering usage barriers, enhancing decision-making efficiency, and creating real value [2] - Companies with stable cash flows supporting AI investments and strong operational capabilities are expected to have higher long-term investment value [5] Semiconductor - The report maintains four core investment themes for 2026: AI-driven structural growth, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency trend, high-yield defensive allocations, and industry consolidation [7] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 26% to $975 billion in 2026, with AI-related segments leading the growth [7] Technology - The global tech industry is expected to experience demand differentiation and accelerated AI innovation, with a focus on AI computing infrastructure and end-user AI products [8] - Key companies to watch include Apple, which is anticipated to have a year of innovation with new AI products [8] Consumer Sectors Essential Consumption - The report identifies three main investment themes: deepening consumption stratification, focusing on essential survival needs, and leveraging overseas expansion to hedge against domestic uncertainties [10][20] - Companies in the food and beverage sector, such as Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverages, are recommended due to their stable demand and attractive valuations [21] Discretionary Consumption - The outlook for the discretionary consumption sector is cautious, with expected retail sales growth of about 3.5% in 2026, slightly down from 4% in 2025 [11] - The report suggests a focus on survival-type consumption and low-cost emotional comfort products, with recommendations for companies like Luckin Coffee and Bosideng [11][21] Automotive - The Chinese automotive industry is expected to show resilience despite pressures from subsidy reductions and tax incentives, with retail sales of passenger vehicles projected to remain stable [12] - Key trends include intensified competition and the introduction of new models, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [12] Pharmaceuticals - The innovative drug sector has seen significant growth driven by overseas licensing deals, but future catalysts are expected to shift from upfront payments to milestone achievements [13] - The CXO industry is anticipated to continue its recovery in 2026, supported by a rebound in domestic R&D demand [13] Real Estate - The report forecasts a continued contraction in the real estate market, with total residential sales expected to decline by 8% in 2026 [16][17] - Investment themes include focusing on stock market service providers and companies with strong operational capabilities in commercial assets [18][19]

以下文章来源于金十数据 ，作者金十数据 金十数据 . 金十数据官方服务号。汇聚金融投资行业的各类数据和资讯，数据资讯快、准、全。 如果报告显示为2.9%，可能会为2026年的股市带来一些积极动能。事实上，托雷斯认为这样的数据将为所谓的"圣诞老人行情"扫清道路。 他还认为这将对明年的利率前景产生影响——美联储预计在此期间将进行一次降息。 "如果我们能让通胀保持在2字头而不是上升到3字头，这确实会强化在2025年最后一份CPI通胀报告中体现的货币政策宽松预期，因为这将 为明年更多的降息创造条件，"托雷斯补充道。 并 非 一 份 " 干 净 " 的 报 告 来源 | 金十数据 华尔街正等待周四发布的11月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，这将是自上个月创纪录的美国政府停摆结束以来， 投资者获得的首份通胀数据 。 北京时间周四21:30 ，美国将公布11月未季调CPI年率、11月季调后核心CPI月率、美国11月未季调核心CPI年率， 这是2025年最后一份主 要经济报告 。 同一时间还将发布美国12月费城联储制造业指数、美国至12月13日当周初请失业金人数。 根据道琼斯对经济学家的调查，这份追踪人们为各类商品和服务所支付 ...

相反，如果NFP超出预期且失业率保持在4.4%或甚至下降，就业数据的积极意外将对明年美联储降息超 过一次的预期形成反击，为美元提供急需的支撑。而白银是以美元计价的商品，美元的涨跌将影响白银 的走势。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 纽约联储主席约翰.威廉姆斯周一指出，在上周降息后，货币政策已为明年做好充分定位，目前就业风 险有所上升，而通胀风险则相对有所缓解。 美联储理事斯蒂芬.米兰重申其观点，认为当前政策仍过于紧缩。他还表示，在其任期到期后，将很可 能继续留在央行，直至新任人选获确认接任。 另外今晚重磅数据来袭，如果11月份的非农就业人数低于预期，且失业率意外上升，可能会加剧对美国 就业市场放缓的担忧，从而增强市场对美联储在1月份下次会议上再次降息的押注。在这种情况下，美 元可能会再次下跌。 今日周二(12月16日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于14586一线上方，今日开盘于14944元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报14648元/千克，下跌0.42%，最高触及14957元/千克，最低下探14454元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 沪银目前早盘高位回落，空头趋势占主导，短期呈下行趋 ...