Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for lower-than-expected CPI inflation data in the context of a slowing U.S. economy and manageable inflation pressures [1] Economic Indicators - Signs of economic slowdown in the U.S. are becoming more apparent, raising questions about the overall inflation outlook [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may be reflected in the upcoming CPI data, suggesting that external factors could influence domestic price levels [1]

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 6月6日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 783.24 | -0.15% | 272195 | 178314 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【机构观点】 国投期货：隔夜金价震荡，白银伴随铜价破位上行。中美两国元首通话同意继续落实好日内瓦共识，尽 快举行新一轮会谈。美国公布周度初请失业金人数超预期升至24.7万创八个月新高，本周美国经济数据 普遍偏弱后聚焦今晚非农指引。金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路，白银破位后打开上方空 间。 【基本面消息】 数据显示，6月6日上海黄金现货价格报价779.4元/克，相较于期货主力价格（783.24元/克）贴水3.84元/ 克。 在企业已经面临进口商品关税成本上升之际，美国一季度工人生产率下降速度快于最初预期，推动劳动 力成本大幅上升。美国第一季度非农生产力终值下降了1.5%。 美国上周首次申请失业救济的人数意外增加，达到自去年10月以来的最高水平，这进一步表明就业市场 正在降温。美国至5月31日当周初请失业 ...

Group 1 - The China Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1345.85 points, down 1.37 points or 0.1% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Commodity Futures Index closed at 1863.53 points, down 1.9 points or 0.1% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Coking coal experienced a rebound due to supply-side news but retreated as the news was not confirmed, closing up 1.68% [2] - The market sentiment for coking coal has cooled, with no significant price increases in the spot market, and some steel mills have initiated price reductions for coking coal [2] - The outlook for coking coal remains weak due to oversupply, with expectations of continued market fluctuations in the short term [2] Group 3 - Tin prices are consolidating after a significant rise, closing up 1.47% [3] - Concerns about slow recovery in supply from Myanmar's Wa State tin mines are affecting market sentiment, while overall consumption remains limited [3] - Economic data from the U.S. indicates a slowdown, with ADP employment numbers and ISM services PMI both falling below expectations, leading to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 4 - Aluminum futures saw a sharp decline, dropping nearly 3% amid concerns over supply disruptions from Guinea's Axis mine [4] - The market is shifting focus to the potential for oversupply as production resumes, despite current tightness in the spot market [4] Group 5 - Urea futures fell nearly 3%, reaching the lowest level since January, with significant fluctuations in inventory levels reported [6] - The domestic supply of urea remains high, and while demand is stable, the market sentiment is cautious due to the potential for further inventory accumulation [6] - The nitrogen fertilizer association has set a maximum ex-factory price for urea, indicating a controlled pricing environment amid low production costs [6]

新华社伦敦5月21日电（记者赵小娜）路透社21日发布一项对经济学家的调查显示，围绕美国关税 战的贸易紧张局面近期出现短暂缓和，但美国经济前景仍不容乐观。受财政赤字扩大、通胀居高不下和 政策不确定性影响，美国经济正面临"低增长、高通胀"的风险。报道摘要如下： 高额进口关税暂停实施在一定程度上降低了美国短期内陷入衰退的可能性，但并未实质性改变其经 济下行趋势。最新调查显示，美国经济今年第二季度预计增长1.5%，全年增速仅为1.4%，显著低于去 年的2.8%，2026年增速预期同样为1.5%。未来一年，美国出现经济衰退的概率中位数从4月的45%降至 35%。 美联储官员认为，关税政策导致通胀形势再度恶化的风险在加剧，因此不急于降息。今年以来，联 邦基金利率一直维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。在103位受访的经济学家中，52人预计美联储将在第三 季度开始降息，最可能在9月；25人认为将在第四季度降息；18人预计今年不会降息；8人预测6月将降 息。 FHN金融公司首席经济学家克里斯·洛指出，联邦公开市场委员会坚持要在关税对通胀的直接影响 明朗之后再降息。因此，相关决策可能到第四季度才会做出，甚至明年年初。 摩根士 ...

Core Viewpoint - The founder of the hedge fund company Point72, Steven Cohen, believes that the U.S. economy is likely to slow down due to tariff threats [1] Economic Outlook - Cohen stated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to take immediate action as it remains concerned about inflation issues stemming from tariffs [1] - He projected that the U.S. GDP is expected to grow by 1.5% next year [1]

Group 1 - Jeff Gundlach, known as the "Bond King," predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,000 per ounce, a 20% increase from last week's price of approximately $3,345 [1] - Gold has increased by 25% this year, reflecting a shift in traders' perceptions due to market volatility related to tariffs and geopolitical concerns [1] - The World Gold Council reports that the global market size for physically-backed gold ETFs increased by $11 billion in April, reaching $397 billion [1] Group 2 - Gundlach expresses a challenging outlook for other risk assets, predicting a potential 20% decline in the S&P 500 index, which could drop to 4,500 points [2] - The market is currently in a risk-off state, with other analysts also optimistic about gold due to uncertainties stemming from trade policies [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $3,700 per ounce, citing high policy uncertainty and a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy [3]

报 告 正 文 继续暂停降息，等待实际数据降温 。 本次议息会议中，美联储决定将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.5%的目标范围内，并按原有节奏继续执行缩表。在本次议息会 议声明中，美联储新增判断 "高失业率和高通胀风险已经增加" （the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen），经济前景不确定性"进一 步"（further）增加。美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，不需要急于调整利率，目前等待的成本较低。政策是适度限制的，等到6月才能做出预测。 美联储需 要真实数据反映，而不仅仅是情绪 ，尽管市场很担心，但关税冲击还没有到来。如果双重目标之间存在矛盾，要考虑与目标之间的距离和弥合差距的时间。 此外，鲍威尔重申特朗普施压不会影响美联储的工作。 我们认为， 一方面，美国就业仍趋于降温 ，4月新增非农就业人数回落、前值下修，失业率保持平稳，薪资增速略有回落，整体表现仍然稳健。不过，政府裁 员影响在未来仍将逐渐显现，同时关税等经济政策不确定仍高，或在一定程度上减缓企业招聘，关税等经济政策或对私营企业招聘决策造成负面影响，就业市 场或仍将趋于 ...

墨西哥央行行长：不确定的环境、对外部需求的影响以及可能的美国经济放缓，表明墨西哥的生产活动 可能在2025年仍将保持疲软。 ...

昨天，发生了哪些财经大事？ 美国一季度GDP负增长 美国商务部4月30日公布最新数据显示，2025年第一季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比 按年率计算萎缩0.3%。2024年第四季度，美国GDP环比按年率计算增长2.4%。 据路透社30日报道，由于第一季度美国国内生产总值不及预期，引发了在全球贸易战背景 下市场对美国经济放缓的担忧，美国股指期货应声下跌。 金价大跳水！ 有人一夜亏超47万 北京时间4月30日晚，黄金价格大跳水，截至30日21时30分， 现货黄金跌破3280美元/盎 司关口，最新报3279.27美元/盎司，日内跌1.13%；COMEX黄金期货主力最新报3294.1 美元/盎司，日内跌1.18%。 据消费日报30日报道，多位受访者指出，当前不少消费者更加关注黄金价格走势，或希望 以较低的价格"上车"，或希望将手中金饰高位变现，也有消费者持保守观望态度。但金价 正处于震荡阶段，黄金买卖需理性，切勿追涨杀跌。消费者在黄金回购时应提前了解回收标 准、要求，并保留好相关凭证。 据华夏时报报道，记者注意到，在某金融平台， 有投资者高位上车，于4月22日以829元/ 克均价买入超千万元黄金积存金，并在次日金价 ...

惠誉：美国经济放缓加剧将显著影响非关税收入，并通过自动稳定机制增加支出。 ...