Core Points - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of significant cooling, with July's unemployment rate rising and non-farm payrolls underperforming expectations [1][4] - President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the employment data and ordered the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau director, accusing her of manipulating data for political purposes [1][7] - Economic indicators suggest a downward trend in the U.S. economy, with GDP growth in the first half of the year at only 1.4%, below the potential growth rate of 1.8% [4] - Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48, indicating contraction, with new orders and employment indices also reflecting a decline [4] - Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, aiming to manage the national debt of $36 trillion through cheaper financing [8] Economic Indicators - July's unemployment rate increased, and non-farm payrolls were significantly revised down for May and June, indicating a cooling labor market [1] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 48, with the new orders index declining sharply due to trade tensions [4] - The employment index reached a five-year low at 43.4, and unemployment claims exceeded expectations, further signaling labor market deterioration [4] Political Interference - Trump's actions, including the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau director and calls for the resignation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, reflect increasing political interference in economic institutions [7][8] - The pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is seen as a strategy to alleviate the burden of national debt, but it raises concerns about the independence of the Fed [8]

Employment Data - July non-farm employment increased by 73,000, below the expected 104,000[1] - Unemployment rate rose by 0.13 percentage points to 4.248%[1] - Labor participation rate declined by 0.06 percentage points to 62.2%[1] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations[1] Data Revisions - Non-farm employment for May and June was revised down by a total of 258,000[2] - May's employment was revised down by 125,000 to 19,000, and June's by 133,000 to 14,000[1] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm data release, the dollar index fell from 100 to 98.7[2] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped over 20 basis points[2] - Gold prices increased by 2.2%, while the S&P 500 fell by 1.6%[2] - Rate cut expectations rose from 33 basis points to 56 basis points[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Potential for a 50 basis point rate cut in September due to weak labor market signals[3] - The resignation of a Federal Reserve governor may expedite the selection of a new chair[3] - Market skepticism regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead to expectations of a 75-100 basis point cut[4] Risk Factors - Economic, employment, and inflation trends in the U.S. may exceed expectations, impacting fiscal and tariff policies[5]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed unexpected weakness in July, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of over 140,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The U.S. Labor Department revised down the employment figures for May and June, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs, indicating growing concerns about the slowdown in the U.S. economy [1] Group 2 - Job growth in July was primarily driven by the healthcare and social services sectors, which added 55,000 and 18,000 jobs respectively, while federal government employment continued to decline [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees in July was $36.44, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 3.9% [1] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about the labor market, noting that private sector job growth is nearly stagnant and that the labor market is showing signs of vulnerability [2]

Core Insights - Emerging market bonds have rebounded following the suspension or cancellation of certain tariffs, with local rate yields and emerging market currencies outperforming other fixed income assets [1] - The weakening of the US dollar is changing market perceptions of the US economic dominance, creating investment opportunities in emerging and developed markets outside the US [1] - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere have led markets to separate geopolitical risks from other global macro uncertainties, indicating a favorable environment for bottom-up investment opportunities [1] - Structural and cyclical shifts in US and emerging market policies and growth dynamics are increasing the attractiveness of emerging market bonds [2] Emerging Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are expected to benefit from widening growth differentials, with their fundamentals remaining resilient compared to developed markets [2] - Many emerging market countries have seen improvements in their fiscal deficits, stabilizing public debt levels and leading to sovereign credit upgrades [2] - The weakening dollar is expected to lower the ratio of emerging market public debt to GDP, creating a more favorable external environment [2] - Emerging market central banks have room to implement accommodative policies to boost domestic demand due to controlled inflation and stable currencies [2] Investment Opportunities - Emerging market hard currency bonds offer a rare combination of high yields, risk diversification, and macro resilience, making them attractive for investors [3] - Despite rising US real yields, most emerging market currencies have appreciated against the dollar, indicating potential relative value opportunities [3] - The expectation of a weaker dollar is driven by ongoing tariffs and their negative impact on growth, which may lead to more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve compared to other central banks [3] Market Challenges - The market faces headwinds from uncertainties related to trade disputes and potential deterioration of the situation in the Middle East [4] - The reshaping of the global order presents opportunities, particularly for investors who are cautious about risks associated with single asset classes [4]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with various economic indicators showing a contraction trend compared to the previous two years [1][4] - The OECD has revised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6%, and further down to 1.5% for 2026 [1] - The IMF has also lowered its 2025 growth expectation by 0.9 percentage points to 1.8% [1] Labor Market Analysis - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the anticipated 4.3% [5] - Despite a seemingly stable labor market, there are signs of weakness, particularly in the private sector, where job growth is sluggish [5] - The labor market is under pressure from overall economic slowdown and structural adjustments within industries [5] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, the highest level since February [1] - Tariff policies theoretically increase prices, but their actual impact is mitigated by falling global energy prices and limited implementation of tariffs [2][6] - Energy prices have decreased significantly, with crude oil dropping from around $80 per barrel to approximately $65, contributing to lower inflation [6] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts, with a probability exceeding 90% for the September meeting [8] - Current economic conditions, including declining inflation indicators and global economic slowdown, suggest that maintaining the current federal funds rate of 4.25%-4.5% is inappropriate [8] Currency Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index is under pressure due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and a slowdown in global trade growth [9] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves is close to 60%, and its role in global trade settlements is about 50%, indicating a significant impact from trade tensions [9] - Despite some supportive factors for the dollar, such as stable capital inflows, the prevailing negative factors are expected to dominate in the short term [9]

金十数据7月1日讯，美国制造业在6月份仍然低迷，新订单低迷，投入价格攀升，这表明特朗普政府对 进口商品征收的关税继续阻碍企业提前计划的能力。最新的数据显示，美国6月ISM制造业PMI从5月的 六个月低点48.5微升至49.0。这是PMI连续第四个月低于50，这表明占经济10.2%的制造业出现收缩。与 此同时，楼市、消费者支出和失业人数不断增加等疲弱数据显示，美国经济的潜在动能在第二季进一步 放缓，尽管GDP可能反弹，因创纪录的贸易逆差拖累因进口下降而消退。 受关税影响，美国制造业陷入疲软 ...

Core Viewpoint - The slowdown in U.S. labor force growth is expected to hinder economic growth, with immigration being a contributing factor [1] Group 1 - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the economy is slowing down this year [1] - The deceleration in labor force growth is identified as a key factor affecting economic performance [1] - Immigration is highlighted as one of the reasons for the slowdown in labor force growth [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% and will continue with the existing pace of balance sheet reduction, indicating a cautious approach due to high uncertainty [1][6] - The median target interest rate for 2025 is projected at 3.9%, with potential for two rate cuts within the year, although the number of members expecting no cuts has increased since March [1][6] - Employment trends show a cooling, with May's non-farm payrolls slightly declining and the unemployment rate remaining stable, suggesting a possible overestimation of current employment levels [2][5] Group 2 - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upwards, with the Fed raising the 2025 unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.5% and the PCE inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3% [4][6] - Powell noted that rising tariffs could increase prices and pressure economic activity, while the labor market remains solid but with fewer new job opportunities [4][6] - The economic growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded from 1.7% to 1.4%, with 2026 also revised down to 1.6%, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty [6][9] Group 3 - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen from 60% to 71%, driven by service-led inflation decline, although there are short-term risks from commodity inflation due to tariff policies [9] - The overall economic activity is reported to be slightly declining across most regions, with increased policy and economic uncertainty leading to more cautious decision-making by households and businesses [6][9] - The Fed's cautious stance is influenced by the high-interest rate environment and the ongoing development of Trump administration policies, which contribute to economic uncertainty [9]

Core Viewpoint - Recent signs indicate that American consumers are abandoning travel plans to save expenses, which may serve as an early warning signal of a broader economic slowdown in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Travel Consumption Trends - According to TS Lombard's analysis of TSA data, U.S. airport passenger throughput has declined year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, indicating a negative growth in air traffic [1] - American Airlines and Delta Airlines have seen stock declines of 22.46% and 20.37% respectively, while American Airlines and JetBlue have dropped by 39% and over 40% [4] - In May, U.S. airline travel spending fell by 11% year-on-year, with accommodation spending down approximately 2.5% and air travel spending down 6% [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has sharply declined since the beginning of the year, with spending on travel accommodations and air travel lower across all income groups compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The low-income group has shown a significant reduction in travel spending, particularly after the announcement of large tariffs by President Trump [3] - High-income groups are also tightening their wallets, with a 7 percentage point drop in air travel spending growth for those earning over $150,000 [3] Group 3: Impact on Airlines and Hotels - Major airlines have withdrawn their full-year earnings forecasts for 2025 due to economic uncertainty affecting demand [4] - Hotel groups like Marriott and Hyatt have revised their 2025 profit expectations downward, with Wyndham reducing its RevPAR growth forecast from 2%-3% to -2%-1% [4] - The current environment is expected to test key metrics in the hotel industry, such as occupancy rates and average daily rates [4] Group 4: International Travel and Perception - A report from Oxford Economics predicts a 9% decline in international visitors to the U.S. this year, resulting in an estimated $8.5 billion reduction in spending [7] - Negative perceptions of U.S. trade and immigration policies are contributing to a decrease in international tourist arrivals, particularly from France and Germany [7] - American tourists are also planning fewer long-haul trips abroad, with a 7% decrease in those planning to travel to Europe this summer [7] Group 5: Economic Outlook and Consumer Spending - The increase in tariffs is expected to significantly lower U.S. economic growth rates in 2025, impacting consumer purchasing power and stock markets [8] - Rising inflation and slowing job growth may lead to a decline in real wage growth below 1% by the end of the year, making it difficult for consumers to maintain current spending levels [8] - The depletion of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic has returned bank deposits to 2019 levels, indicating a potential strain on consumer spending [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for lower-than-expected CPI inflation data in the context of a slowing U.S. economy and manageable inflation pressures [1] Economic Indicators - Signs of economic slowdown in the U.S. are becoming more apparent, raising questions about the overall inflation outlook [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may be reflected in the upcoming CPI data, suggesting that external factors could influence domestic price levels [1]