Core Viewpoint - The upcoming US inflation data is expected to be a key catalyst for the GBP/USD exchange rate, with the market currently holding a neutral view on the pound [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The market anticipates that the GBP/USD exchange rate will continue to fluctuate within a range, with investor focus shifting towards the upcoming UK autumn budget and its potential policy signals [1] - A potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in December is expected to occur earlier than the market's general consensus, which could significantly weaken the pound's interest rate advantage [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD has stabilized above the support level of 1.3400 and has broken through short-term moving average resistance [1] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, indicating increased bullish momentum; if the exchange rate effectively breaks through the 1.3570 level, it may further test resistance levels at 1.3620 and 1.3680 [1] - Initial support levels to watch for a potential pullback are at 1.3500 and subsequently at 1.3440, with an overall trend leaning towards a strong consolidation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in spot gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve policy expectations, dollar movements, inflation data, and changes in market risk appetite [1][3][5] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold is currently in the overbought zone, indicating that the recent upward trend may require consolidation to alleviate high buying pressure [1] - Initial support levels are established around $3,600 and $3,580, with potential testing of mid-term support areas at $3,565–$3,560 and historical lows at $3,510 if prices break down [1] - Resistance levels are concentrated at recent highs of $3,675 and the psychological barrier of $3,700, which will challenge further upward movement [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Market expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy significantly impact gold prices, with recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data showing lower-than-expected increases, reinforcing expectations for future rate cuts [3] - Anticipation of the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August is crucial, as it will provide important insights into inflation trends and monetary policy direction [3] - A CPI reading above expectations may support the dollar, while a lower-than-expected reading could slow the dollar's strengthening [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risk - Market sensitivity to uncertain events can also affect gold prices, as investors tend to increase their focus on safe-haven assets during sudden changes in financial markets, economic data, or the global economic environment [4] - This demand for safety can support gold prices, leading to a defensive characteristic in the short term [5] - The current market is in a phase of waiting for significant data and events, with high-level fluctuations and range-bound movements likely to become the norm [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to show a short - term and mid - term upward trend, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly. Copper is also expected to have a short - term and mid - term upward trend, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, gold prices maintained high - level oscillating. New York gold oscillated below $3700, and Shanghai gold oscillated around 835 yuan. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22nd, gold prices have been on an upward trend, with foreign gold breaking through the high of the oscillation range since the second quarter of this year [3] - **Core Logic**: Recent stock markets at home and abroad have been oscillating, giving gold a safe - haven premium. In the short term, the upward momentum of gold prices is strong. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average when prices fall. Also, focus on tonight's US inflation data [3] Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last night, copper prices increased in volume and moved upwards, with the main contract price standing above the 80,000 - yuan mark [4] - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, the expectation of overseas economic decline is rising, which is negative for copper prices, while the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, which is positive. Industrially, the support of the domestic industrial peak season for futures prices is constantly strengthening. With a strong domestic and weak overseas macro - environment and the industry entering the peak season, futures prices are expected to move strongly. Technically, the futures price increased in volume and stood above 80,000 yuan, with strong upward momentum [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which is influencing gold prices to remain near historical highs [1][2] - As of September 10, gold prices have increased by 38% this year, benefiting from a weaker dollar, strong central bank purchases, and a loose monetary environment [2] - The market anticipates a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 50 basis point cut possibility at around 8% [2] Group 2 - Recent U.S. employment data indicates a cooling labor market, which supports the expectation of a rate cut and has contributed to the rise in gold prices [1][2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains in a bullish trend as long as it does not fall below $3,600, with short-term support levels identified around $3,620 to $3,640 [4][5] - The articles provide specific trading strategies for gold, including recommendations for both short and long positions based on current market conditions [5][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market is expected to maintain high-level volatility in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and the core direction of fluctuation depends on the final decision of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 18th, the guidance of US inflation data, and the speed of domestic inventory depletion [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Daily Market Summary Market Data Changes - On September 9th, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose slightly by 90 yuan to 79,740 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range oscillation pattern. The spot premium continued to weaken, with the premium of premium copper dropping from 190 yuan/ton on September 8th to 125 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper narrowing from 60 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount widened to 81.07 dollars/ton, highlighting the pressure of loose overseas spot supply [1] - On September 8th, the LME copper open interest increased by 1,928 lots to over 290,000 lots. However, with the high price of SHFE copper, domestic spot trading volume was suppressed, and downstream procurement remained cautious, lacking continuous short - term drivers [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes in the Industry Chain - Supply: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia suspended mining operations due to a sudden ore outburst accident, which may disturb market sentiment in the short term. China's imports of unforged copper in August decreased month - on - month to 425,000 tons, reflecting the slowdown of import demand in the off - season, but the release of smelter capacity still supported sufficient supply of electrolytic copper [2] - Demand: High copper prices suppressed the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory. The spot premium of electrolytic copper in North China continued to weaken. Orders in the power, construction, and consumer electronics sectors were seasonally weak. Coupled with the accumulation of high - price copper product inventory, terminal procurement was mostly for rigid demand, and the demand side lacked continuous stimulation [2] - Inventory: Global visible inventories were differentiated. On September 8th, LME copper inventory increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, reaching a new high in nearly a month; SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 550 tons to 155,000 tons, still at a high level this year. The overall inventory pressure was not relieved, and the spot de - stocking rhythm was slow [2] Market Summary - The Indonesian mine accident on the supply side may briefly boost market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited. On the demand side, high prices suppress restocking, and the weakening of the spot discount restricts the rebound space. The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the decline of the US dollar index on the macro - level provide support for copper prices, but market caution has increased before the release of CPI data [3] Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM:1 copper on September 9th was 79,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.01%. The premium of premium copper decreased by 65 yuan to 125 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 34.21%. The premium of flat - water copper decreased by 20 yuan to 40 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 33.33%. The premium of wet - process copper decreased by 10 yuan to - 40 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 33.33%. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened [5] - The SHFE copper price on September 9th was 79,740 yuan/ton, a rise of 90 yuan from the previous day, with a change rate of 0.11%. The LME copper price rose slightly. The LME copper inventory increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, with a change rate of 0.82%. The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,275 tons, with a change rate of - 0.35% [5] Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes various data charts such as China PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [6][10][12]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - Gold prices surged to a record high of $3,674.70 per ounce, driven by a 92% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month [1] - Silver struggled below $41.67, showing a bearish trend due to weak industrial confidence, despite expectations of a dovish Fed stance [1] - Platinum fell from $1,438.30 and is currently testing a key support level at $1,367.60, near the 50-day moving average [1] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 for the year ending in March, averaging a decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2000 [2] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, maintained its holdings at 979.68 tons, indicating stable demand despite market volatility [2] - The Fed's rate cut pace remains uncertain, with expectations of gradual cuts of 25 basis points until rates reach a target range of 3.0% to 3.5% [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Precious Metals - The spot gold price has rebounded, having previously accumulated gains and absorbed an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) [3] - Silver is consolidating below the key resistance level of $41.67, with potential upward movement towards $44.22 if it closes above this level [4] - The recent support levels for silver are at $40.40 and $39.88, while the gold-silver ratio continues to rise, confirming gold's leading position [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **gold market** and its relationship with **U.S. economic indicators**, particularly focusing on interest rate expectations and inflation trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Drivers**: The recent increase in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts due to weaker economic data, particularly non-farm payrolls, and manageable inflation risks [2][3][4]. 2. **Interest Rate Expectations**: The market has largely priced in a rate cut in September, with expectations of 2-3 cuts by the end of the year, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to 3% by the end of 2025 [3][27]. 3. **Employment Market Analysis**: The decline in non-farm payrolls does not necessarily indicate an impending recession; it reflects a complex interplay of factors including economic slowdown, declining labor participation, and increased AI investments [5][10][11]. 4. **Inflation Dynamics**: Oil prices are identified as the primary driver of U.S. inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to decline due to base effects and falling prices in key categories like used cars and rent [15][17][23]. 5. **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical tensions have historically influenced gold prices, but their impact is currently diminishing as the market stabilizes [37]. 6. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings as part of long-term reserve diversification strategies [31][35]. 7. **ETF Influence**: The relationship between gold prices and ETF holdings is significant; as U.S. Treasury yields decline, ETF purchases of gold are likely to increase, further supporting gold prices [32][42]. 8. **Speculative Indicators**: Speculative long positions in gold can provide some insights into price movements, but their reliability is limited, especially at market peaks [34][36]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Labor Market Trends**: The U.S. labor market is characterized by a "three lows" balance (low hiring, low employment, low unemployment), which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [11][12]. 2. **Future Economic Outlook**: The potential for a global monetary easing environment could benefit both stocks and gold, although stocks may outperform in such scenarios [41]. 3. **Risks to Gold Market**: Potential risks include short-term volatility around the September FOMC meeting and geopolitical developments that could alter central bank purchasing behavior [40][43]. 4. **Long-term Economic Indicators**: The inversion of the nominal GDP and federal funds rate suggests a need for rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures, historically indicating a recession [28]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the interconnectedness of economic indicators, interest rate policies, and gold market dynamics, providing a nuanced understanding of current trends and future expectations.

此番表态正值全球央行年会召开之际，市场密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔即将发表的演讲，期待从中获取关于利率政策走向的线索。今年以来，由于关税政策 对经济影响存在不确定性，美联储一直维持利率稳定。古尔斯比作为联邦公开市场委今年拥有投票权的成员，其观点受到市场格外重视。 就在古尔斯比发表评论的同时，其他联储官员也表达了各自的观点。波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯在另一次采访中暗示，如果劳动力市场状况恶化程度超过 通胀风险上升幅度，九月份降息可能是合适的选择。这一表态与古尔斯比的谨慎立场形成微妙对比，反映出美联储内部正在就政策走向进行深入讨论。 分析人士认为，当前美国经济正处于复杂阶段。一方面就业市场保持相对稳健，另一方面通胀走势出现新的不确定性。古尔斯比此前曾表示，经济前景仍然 复杂，美联储需要等待更多数据才能做出利率调整决策。这种审慎态度在美联储决策者中具有一定代表性。 芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比近日在杰克逊霍尔年会期间表示，尽管近期美国多数通胀指标呈现向好趋势，但最新数据中出现的服务业通胀意 外飙升值得警惕。他指出，这一变化可能独立于关税政策的影响，并将其描述为一个"危险的数据点"，同时表示希望这仅是暂时现象。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed performance on August 15, with Shanghai gold main contract priced at 777.92 CNY per gram, up 0.21%, and Shanghai silver main contract at 9293.00 CNY per kilogram, up 0.85% [1] - International precious metals had varied results, with COMEX gold priced at 3408.10 USD per ounce, up 0.03%, while COMEX silver was at 38.05 USD per ounce, up 0.03% [1] - On the same day, domestic precious metal futures turned negative, with Shanghai gold main contract at 775.72 CNY per gram, down 0.41%, and Shanghai silver at 9209.00 CNY per kilogram, down 1.21% [1] Group 2 - The opening prices for August 15 included Shanghai gold at 776.90 CNY per gram and Shanghai silver at 9242.00 CNY per kilogram, with respective highs of 777.32 CNY and 9262.00 CNY [2] - COMEX gold opened at 3383.20 USD per ounce, reaching a high of 3394.80 USD, while COMEX silver opened at 38.03 USD per ounce, peaking at 38.12 USD [2] Group 3 - Federal Reserve's Daly expressed opposition to a 50 basis point rate cut in September, citing concerns over signaling urgency and lack of justification for aggressive cuts [3] - Current CME FedWatch data indicates a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut, with a 55.2% chance of cumulative cuts reaching 50 basis points by October [3] - On August 14, COMEX gold fell by 0.76% to 3382.30 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold dropped 0.55% to 774.54 CNY per gram, amid higher-than-expected PPI data from the US [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unexpectedly high US inflation data released last night and the Fed officials' cautious stance on interest rate cuts have put short - term pressure on precious metal prices [2][3]. - The much - higher - than - expected PPI data in July shows that Trump's tariff policy has significantly affected US prices. Fed officials' statements around the data release were generally hawkish [3]. - Despite the current resilience of US inflation data, due to factors such as US debt interest payments and Trump administration intervention, the Fed will implement a further easing cycle. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider buying on dips after the price stabilizes. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 766 - 788 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver, it is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Changes - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.55% to 774.54 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) dropped 1.31% to 9197.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold fell 0.12% to 3379.00 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver fell 0.12% to 38.03 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.29%, and the US dollar index was 98.21 [2]. - In the comparison of recent trading days, various precious - metal - related products showed different price and volume changes, such as Au(T + D) rising 0.05% to 775.10 yuan/gram, and London Gold falling 0.61% to 3343.85 dollars/ounce [4]. US Economic Data - In July, the US PPI year - on - year value was 3.3%, much higher than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.4%. The month - on - month value was 0.9%, significantly higher than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0% [3]. Trading Suggestions - Given the current market situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now. After the precious metal prices stabilize after a correction, consider buying on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 766 - 788 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver, it is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. Data Tables and Graphs - Multiple data tables presented detailed information on precious - metal prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventories in different markets and time periods, such as the COMEX and SHFE gold and silver markets [6]. - There are also various graphs showing the relationships between precious - metal prices, US dollar index, real interest rates, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structure and price spreads of precious metals [8][11][21].