Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing weak fluctuations around $3,330, influenced by technical resistance and market uncertainties regarding U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Economic Data - Recent U.S. inflation and employment data show strong performance, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) remaining flat month-on-month and a narrowing year-on-year increase, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates persistent inflation [3]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may only implement limited rate cuts within the year, despite high core CPI and hawkish comments from Fed officials [3]. Market Reactions - President Trump's comments about potentially dismissing Fed Chair Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [3]. - New tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper have heightened global market risk aversion, providing some support for gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading in the lower Bollinger Band range after a peak of $3,499.83, indicating a consolidation phase with key resistance at $3,444.82 and support at $3,278 [4]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish trend, but diminishing selling pressure suggests a potential weak rebound [5]. - The RSI is stable at 49.47, indicating neutral market sentiment but slightly weak, with no clear direction expected in the short term [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly above market expectations and the highest increase since February [1] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.3%, matching market expectations and higher than the 0.1% increase in May, marking the second-highest monthly increase in 2025 [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month, accelerating from 0.1% in May, while the year-on-year core CPI growth was 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3% [1] Group 2 - The market is currently pricing in a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in July, indicating that the June inflation data has not significantly impacted short-term rate cut expectations [2] - There is a notable divergence in market expectations regarding a potential rate cut in September, with a 48% probability of maintaining rates and a 52% probability of a rate cut, reflecting growing concerns about possible inflation rebounds [2] - The article suggests that while June's CPI data shows some warming, the overall performance remains moderate, and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on commodity prices is beginning to emerge, warranting further observation [2]

Core Insights - The June inflation data in the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly above market expectations of 2.6%, primarily driven by rising energy prices [3][4] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a continued trend of lower-than-expected inflation [3][5] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more pronounced, with economists warning that price increases related to tariffs may not be immediate but could lead to greater consumer cost pressures over time [5][6] Inflation Data - The consumer price index (CPI) for June increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest year-on-year increase since February [3] - Energy prices rose by 0.9% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, with gasoline and fuel prices also increasing [3][4] - Core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.2% and year-on-year increase of 2.9% reflects a slowdown in rent inflation and used car prices [3][5] Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, both the stock and bond markets faced pressure, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 400 points and the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5% [4][7] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have diminished, with the probability of maintaining rates in July rising to 97% [7][8] Tariff Impacts - Recent trade policies have led to increased tariffs on a wide range of goods, causing uncertainty in pricing for businesses and consumers [5][6] - The potential for rising prices on imported goods due to tariffs is expected to manifest in the coming months as companies deplete existing inventories [5][6] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is currently assessing the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions, with a divided outlook among policymakers regarding the timing of potential rate cuts [7][8] - The influence of tariffs on inflation is expected to be a gradual process, with significant effects possibly taking months to fully materialize [5][6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tracking of U.S. inflation data and anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in the second half of the year, raising questions about the pressure on gold prices [1] Group 1: U.S. Inflation Data - U.S. inflation data is being closely monitored as it influences monetary policy decisions [1] - The potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is linked to the inflation trends observed in the economy [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in the latter half of the year, which could impact various asset classes [1] - The anticipated rate cuts are a response to the evolving economic conditions and inflation metrics [1] Group 3: Gold Market Implications - The article raises concerns about how the expected interest rate changes may affect gold prices [1] - Investors are advised to consider the implications of monetary policy shifts on gold as a safe-haven asset [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Short - term international situation is volatile, and risk preference drives market sentiment back. A - shares have a significant increase, and different futures varieties in various sectors present different trends and investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The large - finance sector continues to reach new highs, and A - shares rise with increased trading volume. It is recommended to buy the deeply discounted 09 contracts on dips in the CSI 1000 variety and sell the 09 call options near 6300 to form a covered combination [2]. Bond Futures - Near the end of the month, the bond market may anticipate the central bank's restart of bond purchases. The overall pattern of bond futures is short - term volatile but generally strong. In the unilateral strategy, bond futures can be appropriately bought on adjustments, and in the spot - futures strategy, attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and the steepening of the yield curve [2]. Precious Metals - The impact of geopolitical conflicts fades. The expectations of fiscal and monetary easing in Europe and the United States boost precious metals. It is recommended to continue the strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides of gold, and silver prices are driven by easing expectations in the short term [2]. Shipping Index Futures - It is recommended to watch cautiously. The 08 contract of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 [2]. Steel Futures - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is mainly a wait - and - see approach, and for arbitrage, the strategy of going long on finished products and short on raw materials can be considered [2]. Iron Ore Futures - It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720 [2]. Coking Coal Futures - It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low prices or go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Coke Futures - It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Base Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, etc.) - For copper, the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000; for aluminum, between 19600 - 20600; for zinc, between 21500 - 22500. Each metal has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, and corresponding investment strategies are provided [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil: The market is mainly oscillating, and short - term long positions can be considered at low prices. For other chemical products such as PTA, PF, etc., different investment strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand and price trends [2]. Agricultural Futures - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends. For example, soybeans may have short - term corrections, and different trading strategies are given for each product [2]. Special and New Energy Commodity Futures - For special commodities like glass and rubber, and new energy commodities like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, corresponding price trends and investment strategies are provided [2].

金价上周劲升近4%，以色列打击伊朗引发避险买盘金价上周五大涨，现货黄金上涨1.35%，日线录得三 连阳，收报3432.45美元/盎司，周线涨幅约3.6%，因上周五以色列空袭伊朗，再次引发人们对中东地区 爆发更广泛冲突的担忧。投资者纷纷涌向避险资产。以色列上周五对伊朗发动猛烈袭击，称打击了伊朗 核设施和导弹工厂，并杀死了军事指挥官，这可能是一场长期行动，旨在阻止德黑兰制造核武器。美国 总统特朗普暗示伊朗是咎由自取，此前伊朗拒绝了美国在限制其核计划的谈判中发出的最后通牒。以色 列打击伊朗目标，在市场上引发了一点地缘政治恐慌。由于预期伊朗将采取报复行动，金价将维持高 位。"上周早些时候公布的美国通胀数据疲软，强化了对美联储9月降息的预期，也增加了黄金的吸引 力。即央行结构性强劲的买盘将推动金价到2025年底升至每盎司3700美元，到2026年中期升至每盎司 4000美元。美银则预计未来12个月金价将上涨至每盎司4,000美元。 亚市早盘，现货黄金延续上周涨势，一度刷新近七周高点至3450.93美元/盎司，因为以色列和伊朗在周 日（6月15日）互相发动新一轮袭击，加剧了市场对战事升级可能引发更广泛地区冲突的担忧，黄金 ...

Group 1 - The recent unexpected decline in U.S. inflation data has drawn significant market attention, suggesting a positive signal of economic cooling and price stability, but the complexities in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculation, particularly the subjective weighting of Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER), may distort the data and impact Federal Reserve policy accuracy [1][2] - OER, a major component in the housing weight of CPI, is based on homeowners' subjective estimates of rental value rather than actual market transactions, leading to potential statistical biases that may inflate housing costs in CPI calculations [2][4] - The setting of OER weights is not static and lags behind market changes, which diminishes CPI's ability to reflect true inflation levels, especially during rapid economic shifts [2][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve heavily relies on CPI and other economic data for monetary policy decisions, but these data often exhibit lagging characteristics, which can lead to blind spots in policy-making, particularly in a complex and changing economic environment [3][4] - Historical misjudgments by the Federal Reserve, such as the 2021 assessment of inflation as "transitory," were partly due to over-reliance on lagging data that failed to capture underlying economic issues, resulting in delayed policy adjustments [3][4] - The disconnect between Federal Reserve policy and actual economic trends highlights the risks of relying on outdated data, as seen in the unexpected economic growth in 2023 despite predictions of recession following banking turmoil [3][4]

Core Points - The US dollar has fallen to a three-year low due to trade uncertainties and disappointing inflation data [1] - The euro has risen to a three-and-a-half-year high against the dollar as a result of the dollar's decline [1] - European Central Bank Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that the monetary policy easing cycle is "coming to an end" as inflation stabilizes near the ECB's target [1]

Group 1 - President Trump expressed a strong stance on monetary policy, advocating for a 1% interest rate cut to reduce government debt interest payments, highlighting the importance of the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [1][3] - The latest inflation data showed a lower-than-expected month-on-month increase, with the core CPI rising only 0.1% from April and maintaining a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, the slowest since spring 2021 [3] - Treasury Secretary Becerra attributed the slowing inflation to Trump's policies, emphasizing that the current administration's actions have significantly improved inflation rates after four years of rising prices [3] Group 2 - Speculation regarding the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair is influencing market sentiment, with Trump indicating he will soon announce a successor to Powell [4] - Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones suggested that Trump may appoint a "super dove" to lead the Federal Reserve, with Becerra being a strong candidate due to Trump's focus on economic growth and loyalty [4] - The interplay between Trump's interest rate cut advocacy, inflation data interpretation, and Federal Reserve Chair speculation reflects the complex dynamics of U.S. economic policy, which is closely monitored by investors and the public [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 中美关系趋于缓和，金价冲高回 落，上方阻力较大 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 上游强势，下游弱势 | 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：美国 5 月通胀低于市场预期，数据公布后，美元美债收益 ...