Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 21.02 [1][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue and net profit have shown significant year-on-year growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching RMB 13.546 billion, up 13.62% year-on-year, and net profit of RMB 302 million, up 40.32% year-on-year [1][2]. - The "anti-involution" trend in the industry is expected to continue, leading to a recovery in pricing and benefiting the company, which is anticipated to enhance its service capabilities and market share [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 6.18%, improving both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, which positively impacted net profit per ticket, reaching RMB 0.046 [3]. - The company’s total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 38.570 billion, with a net profit of RMB 756 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.17% and 15.81%, respectively [1][2]. Industry Context - The overall express delivery business volume in China reached 49.43 billion pieces in Q3 2025, growing 13.3% year-on-year, while the average price per piece decreased by 4.4% [2]. - The company’s express delivery volume was 6.52 billion pieces in Q3 2025, up 10.7% year-on-year, with a business revenue of RMB 13.04 billion, up 10.3% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the pricing recovery will continue into Q4 2025, supported by the e-commerce peak season and ongoing regulatory measures against "involution" [4]. - The company is also in the process of acquiring Zhejiang Dan Niao Logistics Technology Co., which is expected to enhance its quality express delivery services and expand into regional distribution and instant retail markets [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to RMB 1.323 billion, RMB 1.687 billion, and RMB 2.015 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of RMB 0.86, RMB 1.10, and RMB 1.32 [5]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 19.1x for 2026, reflecting a premium due to its superior cost control capabilities and expected benefits from pricing improvements [5].

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，9月水泥产量1.54亿吨，同比-8.6%(8月同比-6.2%)，跌幅略有扩 大。后续建议关注行业协同提价力度以及供给侧反内卷背景下水泥企业限制超产政策落地执行进展。钢 铁方面，9月粗钢产量7349万吨，同比-4.6%，国内粗钢表观消费量6452万吨，同比-4.4%，供需同比降 幅均走阔。近期行业供需趋弱，炉料价格受供给扰动侵蚀利润，导致钢材价格及利润收缩，但反内卷下 行业供需长期改善趋势未变。 中金主要观点如下： 水泥：9月产量同比跌幅略扩大，小旺季价格环比略有提振 9月水泥产量1.54亿吨，同比-8.6%(8月同比-6.2%)，跌幅略有扩大。根据中金建筑组统计，9月广义基建 投资同比-8.4%，其中水利、环境和公共设施管理业细分项同比-15%，基建表现疲软，水泥需求偏弱。 在7-8月淡季企业盈利持续承压背景下，不同地区错峰停产、协同提价，效果一般：9月全国水泥均价环 比+3元至342元/吨，低于去年同期375元/吨；测算9月行业吨毛利同比-18元/吨左右。后续建议关注行业 协同提价力度以及供给侧反内卷背景下水泥企业限制超产政策落地执行进展。 标的上，建议关注海螺水泥(00 ...

Group 1: Pesticide Industry Insights - Current pesticide prices and stocks are at relatively low levels, with increasing demand driven by expanding grain planting areas in South America [1] - Strong replenishment demand is expected during the peak season due to previous low inventory strategies by downstream buyers [1] - The pesticide industry is entering the end of its second expansion phase, with capital expenditure growth having turned negative for five consecutive quarters [1] - The industry is anticipated to see an overall price increase due to demand-driven factors and actions against internal competition [1] Group 2: Potash Market Dynamics - China, as the largest potash consumer globally, faces a tight supply-demand balance, with over 60% import dependency [1] - Domestic production of potassium chloride is projected to decrease by 2.7% to 5.5 million tons in 2024, while imports are expected to rise by 9.1% to 12.633 million tons, reaching a historical high [1] - Domestic potassium chloride port inventory has decreased by 43.95% year-on-year, indicating a significant reduction in stock levels [1] - The average market price for potassium chloride in September was 3,237 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.43% month-on-month decline but a 34.82% year-on-year increase [1] Group 3: Phosphate Industry Overview - The profitability of the phosphate chemical industry is closely linked to the price trends of phosphate rock, which is expected to maintain a high price level due to declining ore grades and increasing extraction costs [2] - The domestic supply-demand situation for phosphate rock is tightening, with the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 RMB/ton for over two years [2] - As of September 29, 2025, the price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei was 1,040 RMB/ton, while in Yunnan it was 970 RMB/ton, both stable compared to the previous month [2] Group 4: Phosphate Fertilizer Export Dynamics - The export policy for phosphate fertilizers in 2025 continues to emphasize domestic priority, with a reduction in export quotas compared to the previous year [3] - The price difference between domestic and international phosphate fertilizers remains significant, benefiting companies with export quotas [3] - As of September 30, the price difference for monoammonium phosphate between the Baltic FOB price and the Hubei market was approximately 1,370 RMB/ton, while for diammonium phosphate it was about 1,409 RMB/ton [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the upcoming e-commerce promotional events, with JD.com starting on October 9 and Tmall on October 15, indicating a competitive landscape in the logistics and e-commerce sectors [1][3] - The promotional periods have been extended, reflecting a slowdown in growth within the e-commerce sector, leading to a focus on pricing strategies rather than sheer volume growth in the logistics industry [1][5] - The peak delivery volume during the 2024 Double 11 event is expected to reach 7.01 billion packages, a 9.7% year-on-year increase, with the total volume during the promotional period projected at 127.83 billion packages [3] Group 2 - The logistics industry is shifting its focus from volume growth to maintaining price increases, especially after a nationwide price hike, with emphasis on sustaining these gains during the off-peak season [5][6] - There are challenges in implementing price increases in certain regions, particularly in key agricultural areas, while other regions may see more successful price adjustments during the peak season [6] - Recent legal actions against collusion among logistics companies highlight the need for fair competition and the potential impact of price manipulation on e-commerce businesses, particularly smaller players [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - China Dajie Nonferrous Metals (00661) has seen a significant stock price increase of nearly 25%, with a cumulative rise of over 144% in the past nine trading days, indicating strong market interest and volatility in the sector [1] Company Summary - As of the latest report, the stock price is at 0.133 HKD, with a trading volume of 33.55 million HKD [1] - The company experienced a revenue decline of over 10% in the first half of the year, attributed to the dual impact of accelerated release of domestic and foreign smelting capacity and tight copper concentrate supply [1] - The processing fees for copper concentrate have remained at low levels, which has negatively affected the company's financial performance [1] Industry Summary - The recent meeting of the Copper Industry Association highlighted the issue of "involution" competition within the copper smelting industry, which has led to persistently low processing fees for copper concentrates [1] - The tight supply of copper concentrates and reduced production output are currently the most prominent challenges facing the industry [1]

Report Title - Focus on Convertible Bond Equity Characteristics and Seize Structural Opportunities: Convertible Bond Strategy for Q4 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Q4 2025 may be the quarter with the strongest equity characteristics of convertible bonds since 2017. Equity characteristics are likely to be one of the most important factors determining convertible bond returns in Q4. Attention should be paid to technology - related catalysts and the implementation of the 15th Five - Year Plan. There are still structural opportunities, especially bond downward revisions. Additionally, clues can be found from convexity, undervaluation, and debt resolution. The pressure to take profits is expected to bottom out, and there is still room for valuation to rise [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Q4 Convertible Bond Outlook: Focus on Equity Characteristics and Seize Structural Opportunities 1.1 In Q4, the Key to Convertible Bonds Lies in Equity Characteristics - Due to institutional behavior, the equity characteristics of convertible bonds may be at a historically strong level. As of the end of Q3 2025, the overall parity level of convertible bonds was at a historical high, the YTM levels of overall/partial - debt convertible bonds were at almost historical lows, and the median delta of convertible bonds was at a historical high. For "fixed - income +" investors, equity characteristics have become the primary investment attribute. From the perspective of return decomposition, the contribution ratio of equity/valuation returns in Q4 may exceed 4:1 [6][8]. 1.2 Pay Attention to Potential Opportunities Brought by Technology Catalysts and the 15th Five - Year Plan - In Q4, the industrial track may remain active. There are many leading technology - sector targets among new bonds that have recently or may be listed in Q4, such as Maolai Optics and Weidao Nano in the photolithography semiconductor concept. The "technology content" of the convertible bond market may continue to increase. Looking forward to the 15th Five - Year Plan, concepts such as new - quality productivity, green and low - carbon, and anti - involution in industries may bring new industrial opportunities, and convertible bonds in the new energy direction are worthy of long - term attention [13]. 1.3 Beyond Equity Characteristics, There Are Still Structural Opportunities. Pay Attention to Terms, Convexity, Undervaluation, and Debt Resolution - In terms of terms, downward revisions are particularly worthy of attention. 47 convertible bonds will end their downward - revision cooling periods in October 2025. Six convertible bonds with a scale of over 2 billion yuan are about to start downward - revision counting. In terms of convertible bond quantification, the convexity and undervaluation strategies have performed well since 2025, and it is expected that they will have a high probability of generating stable excess returns in Q4. In the context of aging convertible bonds and strong equity sentiment, 2025 is expected to be a big year for debt resolution. It is recommended to allocate debt - resolution targets in the early and middle stages when funds are at a low level [15][17][19]. 2. Valuation: The Probability of Valuation Compression Is Low, and There May Still Be 3% - 5% Upside Space - The pressure for insurance funds to take profits on convertible bonds in Q4 may decrease, and the probability of valuation compression is low. The insurance convertible bond position has reached a historically low level, and the cycle of insurance funds reducing their convertible bond holdings that started in September 2024 may be approaching the end. Implied volatility is an important reference factor for specific valuation points. The three important thresholds for the 100 - yuan premium rate in Q4 may be 26%, 31%, and 34%, with an upside space of about 5% [21][23]. 3. Risk: The Risk of Near - Maturity Convertible Bonds Is Small, and Market Risk Appetite May Be Stable - It is expected that there will be 10 convertible bonds maturing in Q4, with a total scale of about 30 billion yuan. From three perspectives, the probability of substantial credit risk in the convertible bond market in Q4 is small: the unrestricted monetary funds of these convertible bonds in H1 2025 can cover the bond balances; convertible bonds with low parity are actively resolving debts; and the credit rating results in 2025 are the best in recent years [25]. 4. Supply: Faster Approval Cannot Offset the Delisting Speed, and the Market May Continue to Shrink - The approval speed of new convertible bonds has significantly accelerated recently. However, the delisting speed of convertible bonds is faster. By the end of Q4, the convertible bond market size may decrease to about 550 billion yuan. As of September 30, 2025, 21 convertible bonds have announced early redemptions, with a total scale of 3.129 billion yuan. There are 10 convertible bonds maturing at the end of the year, with a total scale of 31.196 billion yuan. There are also 53 convertible bonds that have triggered the early - redemption price and are in the counting period, with a total scale of 65.285 billion yuan [27][31]. 5. Capital Behavior: Pay Attention to Potential Style Drifts of Convertible Bond ETFs - After excluding early - redeemed and near - maturity convertible bonds, the market - value contribution of power equipment by Boshi Convertible Bond ETF will exceed that of bank convertible bonds. Similarly, for Haifutong Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond ETF, the proportion of bank convertible bonds' market - value contribution will significantly decrease after excluding relevant bonds. Overall, power equipment and electronics have the largest increase in total market - value contribution [35][40][43].

Core Insights - The "Petrochemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" has been jointly released by seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, aiming to stabilize and promote growth in the petrochemical sector [1][3]. Industry Overview - The herbicide industry, particularly in the case of glyphosate and glufosinate, is undergoing a "de-involution" movement, which is expected to help reverse the current downturn in the industry. A meeting is scheduled for October 12, 2025, to discuss maintaining fair competition and promoting high-quality development [2]. - The average market price for glufosinate raw powder is reported to be 44,500 yuan per ton as of September 25, indicating a stable market [2]. - The nylon industry is facing challenges such as insufficient demand, rising inventory, and declining profitability. Industry leaders are encouraged to adopt a cooperative approach to ensure healthy development [2]. Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading companies in various sectors such as Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, and others in the chemical and new materials sectors [4][5]. - Beneficiary stocks in the herbicide sector include Lier Chemical, while in the nylon sector, companies like Huading Co., Shunhua Chemical, and others are highlighted [2][4].

Group 1 - The PTA industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with a notable demand for improved profitability as the average operating rate has dropped to 78% and the price spread has narrowed to under 100 yuan/ton [1] - The industry is highly concentrated, with six major players holding 74% of the capacity, facilitating discussions for potential joint production cuts to restore processing fees [1] - The PTA and polyester filament sectors are expected to enter a dual prosperity cycle, with the recent anti-involution efforts accelerating the industry's upward trend [1][2] Group 2 - By 2025, the PTA industry will see an addition of 870,000 tons of capacity from three new facilities, with the current cycle of new capacity expected to conclude after the commissioning of a 300,000-ton facility in October [2] - The growth rate of new capacity in the polyester filament sector is projected to be only around 3% in 2026, indicating limited supply growth [2] - The simultaneous supply turning point for PTA and polyester filament suggests a potential recovery for both sectors, supported by joint anti-involution measures [2] Group 3 - The largest chemical ETF (159870) opened with a 0.87% increase, with constituent stocks such as Hengyi Petrochemical hitting the daily limit, and Tongkun and Xin Fengming rising by 6.86% and over 7% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates a cautious approach from airlines regarding capacity deployment in domestic routes, with improvements in passenger load factors observed in August, supported by the introduction of the self-discipline convention by the China Air Transport Association [1][5]. Domestic Routes - In August, the capacity deployment for domestic routes by listed companies increased by approximately 1.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, with growth rates declining to a lower level [2]. - The three major airlines maintained a capacity deployment level in August that was largely unchanged from July, with year-on-year growth rates declining compared to July [2]. - The overall passenger load factor for listed companies improved by about 0.9 percentage points year-on-year and increased by 3.3 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a significant recovery in load factors [2]. - Airlines adjusted their strategies in response to lower-than-expected demand, shifting focus from maximizing load factors to balancing capacity and pricing for better profitability [2][3]. International Routes - For international routes, capacity deployment by listed airlines increased by approximately 14.6% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month in August [4]. - The passenger load factor for international routes remained stable year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of about 2.8 percentage points [4]. - Notable increases in load factors were observed for Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, both based in Shanghai, reflecting strong seasonal demand in the region [4]. Industry Policy Changes and Investment Recommendations - The introduction of the self-discipline convention by the China Air Transport Association in August has laid the groundwork for reducing market chaos and improving operational standards, contributing to revenue enhancement [5]. - The ongoing effort to combat internal competition is seen as a long-term initiative that will aid in the rebalancing of the industry and improve overall profitability [5]. - Large airlines are expected to benefit more significantly from these changes, suggesting a focus on these companies for investment opportunities [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the aviation industry is experiencing low growth in supply, while passenger load factors have improved significantly month-on-month in August [3][12] - The cautious approach of airlines towards capacity deployment is influenced by the unsatisfactory load factors in July and the ongoing trend of industry self-regulation [4][5][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining supply constraints to achieve a balance between supply and demand, which is crucial for alleviating operational pressures on airlines [5][21] Summary by Sections Domestic Routes - In August, the capacity deployment for domestic routes by listed airlines increased by approximately 1.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, indicating a slowdown in growth [4][17] - The overall passenger load factor for listed companies improved by about 0.9 percentage points year-on-year and 3.3 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting a recovery in demand during the peak season [4][35] - Airlines are shifting their focus from maximizing load factors to balancing pricing and volume, prioritizing profitability over market share [4][42] International Routes - For international routes, capacity deployment increased by approximately 14.6% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month in August, with load factors remaining stable [6][57] - Notably, airlines based in Shanghai, such as Spring Airlines and Eastern Airlines, saw significant improvements in load factors, exceeding 4% month-on-month [6][59] - The report indicates that the demand in the Shanghai region is relatively strong, as evidenced by the higher growth rates in international passenger throughput compared to other major airports [6][71] Industry Policy Changes and Investment Recommendations - The publication of the "Self-Regulation Agreement for Air Passenger Transport" by the China Air Transport Association in August is seen as a foundational step towards curbing market chaos and improving revenue levels [7][16] - The report suggests that the ongoing self-regulation efforts are essential for achieving long-term balance in the industry, with larger airlines expected to benefit more significantly from these changes [7][16]