1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the import profit and internal - external price differences of various commodities on May 23, 2025, and analyzes the market trends and trading strategies of different industries [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of considering factors such as logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence in the internal - external arbitrage of non - ferrous metals [1]. - It also points out that different industries are affected by various factors, including trade policies, seasonal patterns, and exchange rate fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products - Cotton: Due to trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the internal and external cotton markets are decoupling. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton, but now the situation has reversed. Continuous attention to subsequent tariff policy changes is needed [1]. - Oilseeds and Oils: These commodities have a high import dependence, with smooth trade and logistics. The risks of the international industrial chain are transmitted to domestic terminals through basis contracts, and the focus is on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [1]. 3.2 Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipping and arrival of iron ore have increased, iron - water production is oscillating at a high level. Overseas macro factors cause strong short - term disturbances, while the domestic macro situation is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - term, the global balance sheet shows a slight surplus compared to China's [1]. 3.3 Energy - SC: The on - shore spot discount has weakened, and the internal - external price difference has also weakened. - FU: In summer, the internal - external price difference maintains a weak pattern, and the internal - external spread of FU09 is compressing. - LU: The previous valuation has been realized, and the internal - external price difference is starting to decline. - PG: The external market shows that FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased, and the oil - gas ratio is oscillating. The internal - external price difference has significantly decreased, and FEI - MOPJ has slightly declined. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East have decreased [1]. 3.4 PX - Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has significantly converged, and the valuation is becoming neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1]. 3.5 Precious Metals - For precious metals, the abnormal movement of the RMB exchange rate has supported the domestic price, causing the internal - external price ratio to quickly decline. The end of the domestic consumption peak season and the Diwali festival in India, which supports gold consumption, also contribute to the decline of the internal - external price ratio. - The spot discount of silver has widened, and the import window has closed [1]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position to take profit. - Tin: As overseas mines and Burmese mines resume production smoothly, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage. The LME inventory has been continuously low recently. - Zinc: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position [1]. 3.7 Exchange Rates - On May 23, 2025, the US dollar index, the Australian dollar against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Brazilian real showed different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and annual periods [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes import profits, internal - external price differences, and trading strategies across multiple industries including agriculture, energy, metals, and precious metals. It also considers the impacts of tariffs, supply - demand, and exchange rates on these factors [1][3]. Group 3: Industry - Specific Summaries Agriculture - **Cotton**: Due to trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the relationship between domestic and foreign cotton markets has changed. After tariff cuts, the strength of Zhengzhou cotton and US cotton has reversed. Continued attention to tariff policy changes is recommended [1]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: These commodities have a high import dependency. Their international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports, and the focus should be on the difference in domestic and foreign supply - demand rhythms [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipping and arrival of iron ore are increasing, iron - water production is oscillating at a high level. With strong overseas macro - disturbances and relatively stable domestic macro - conditions, the ore price center has declined, and there are fewer short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - run, the global supply - demand balance is more surplus compared to the Chinese market [1]. Energy - **SC**: The internal - external price relationship is weakening. - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external relationship remains weak, and the internal - external price difference of FU09 is compressing. - **LU**: The external crack spread basis has rebounded, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the internal - external relationship is strengthening. - **PG**: After tariff relaxation, the external price has risen. The internal - external price difference has decreased significantly [1]. - **PX**: Domestic PX operating rates have declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has converged significantly, and the valuation is becoming neutral, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Metals - **Aluminum**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position to take profit. - **Tin**: As overseas and Myanmar mines resume production smoothly, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities. The LME inventory has been low recently. - **Zinc**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price, and the internal - external price ratio has dropped rapidly. The end of the domestic consumption peak season and the Diwali - supported gold consumption in India have also contributed to this decline. - **Silver**: The spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3].

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/1 2 801 2437 2395 2560 2625 2510 2705 257 332 187 160 -880 2025/05/1 3 801 2460 2415 2565 2635 2515 2705 260 340 174 160 -899 2025/05/1 4 801 2525 2470 2575 2645 2515 2738 266 340 191 155 -1002 2025/05/1 5 801 2425 2418 2580 2645 2515 2738 262 332 132 155 -899 2025/05/1 6 801 2397 2375 2560 2645 2515 2730 261 332 107 60 -859 日度变化 0 -28 -43 -20 0 0 -8 -1 0 -25 -95 40 观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库存将去化至季节性低位，警惕伊朗后期发货仍不及预 期，5 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/14 | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/05/0 7 | 801 | 2432 | 2388 | 2565 | 2650 | 2585 | 2695 | 259 | 340 | 179 | 170 | -788 | | 2025/05/0 8 | 801 | 2400 | 2365 | 2565 | 2640 | 2585 | 2695 | 258 | 340 | 158 | 170 | -763 | | 2025/05/0 9 | 801 | 2420 | 2373 | 2560 | 2640 | 2585 | 2695 | 257 | 340 | 15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, due to low shipments from Iran and insufficient time for the 05 contract, inventory is expected to decline to a seasonal low by the end of April. Be vigilant of continued lower - than - expected shipments from Iran. Assuming normal imports and the shutdown of Shenghong in May, inventory will accumulate, but the low inventory at the end of April will still be factored into trading. An unexpected supply gap in the 05 contract could keep inventory low, providing a safety margin for long positions [1] - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries have accumulated inventory during holidays. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other spreads are oscillating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has increased month - on - month as maintenance in February decreased. Attention should be paid to US quotes and the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [6] - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories have accumulated. The basis is +10, non - standard spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. There are no reports of large - scale export transactions. Propylene is oscillating, and powder feedstock plant operation is stable. The scheduled production of drawn products is neutral. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, and raw material inventory is neutral while finished - product inventory is slightly high. Given over - capacity, the 05 contract is under pressure. To relieve the pressure, there needs to be a significant increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH plants [6] - For PVC, the basis has strengthened to 05 - 120, and the ex - factory basis is - 280. Downstream operation is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. With concentrated spring maintenance, the operation rate is expected to reach 75% temporarily. In the second quarter, attention should be paid to the scale of spring maintenance after profit compression. Export orders are fair. In April, pay attention to the Politburo meeting. Coal prices are stable, the cost of semi - coke is weak, and calcium carbide may struggle to expand profits with PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 400. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 300. Currently, the static inventory is at a high level, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Focus on exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rates [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price data shows that from May 6 to May 12, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the Jiangsu spot price increased by 17, the South China spot price increased by 22, and the盘面MTO profit decreased by 66 [1] Plastic Polyethylene - From May 6 to May 12, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780, the East China LL price decreased by 10, and the主力期货 price increased by 114 [6] Polypropylene - From May 6 to May 12, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased by 70, the主力期货 price increased by 63, and the warehouse receipt increased by 276 [6] PVC - From May 6 to May 12, 2025, the Shandong caustic soda price increased by 10, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price increased by 10, and the basis (high - end delivery product) increased by 10 [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop commercial sales are behind schedule, with 57% of the expected output sold, lower than last year's 64.6% and the five - year average of 70.3%, though it increased by 6.3 percentage points from last month [1] - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sales reached 7.9% of the expected output, still lower than last year's 9.9% and the historical average of 17.2%, indicating producers' caution due to market uncertainties [1] - A US private exporter reported selling 120,000 tons of soybeans to Pakistan for the 2025/2026 market year [1] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 8% to 184,500 tons in the current week compared to the previous week, and exports from 2024 to 2025 increased by 70% compared to the previous year [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Brazil Soybean Sales - 2024/25: With an expected output of 172.45 million tons, 97.88 million tons have been sold, accounting for 57% of the expected output [1] - 2025/26: With an expected output of 182.57 million tons, about 14,350 tons have been sold, accounting for 7.9% of the expected output [1] US Soybean Exports - A US private exporter reported selling 120,000 tons of soybeans to Pakistan for the 2025/2026 market year [1] Canada Rapeseed Exports - Current week: Exports increased by 8% to 184,500 tons compared to the previous week [1] - 2024 - 2025: Exports reached 7.8791 million tons, a 70% increase compared to the previous year [1] - As of a certain date, commercial inventory was 1.201 million tons [1] Spot Prices - Provided spot prices for soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from April 30, 2025, to May 9, 2025 [2]

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/08 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/04/2 8 801 2450 2455 2680 2650 2720 2770 261 340 206 135 -918 2025/04/2 9 801 2450 2425 2675 2660 2720 2770 261 340 184 140 -842 2025/04/3 0 801 2453 2415 2650 2660 2720 2755 258 340 218 170 -812 2025/05/0 6 801 2435 2380 2615 2660 2605 2705 258 340 185 175 -762 2025/05/0 7 801 2432 2388 2565 2650 2585 2695 258 340 185 170 -788 日度变化 0 -3 8 -50 -10 -20 -10 0 0 0 -5 -26 观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/07 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/04/2 5 801 2440 2458 2740 2610 2720 2780 261 340 163 30 -867 2025/04/2 8 801 2450 2455 2680 2610 2720 2770 261 340 206 135 -918 2025/04/2 9 801 2450 2425 2675 2610 2720 2770 261 340 184 140 -842 2025/04/3 0 801 2453 2415 2650 2610 2720 2755 258 340 218 170 -812 2025/05/0 6 801 2445 2380 2615 2610 2605 2705 258 340 218 175 -762 日度变化 0 -8 -35 -35 0 -115 -50 0 0 0 5 50 观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库存将 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of April 19, 2025, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2024/25 season was 92.5%, up from 88.3% the previous week and 83.2% the same period last year [1] - In the first three weeks of April, Brazil exported 9,422,639.91 tons of soybeans, with a daily average export volume of 724,818.45 tons, a 9% increase from the daily average export volume of 667,629.19 tons in the whole month of April last year The total export volume in April last year was 14,687,842.09 tons [1] Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from April 16 to April 22, 2025 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper stabilized and rebounded, with the main contract rising 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. The industry is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased slightly, while SHFE copper inventory decreased. The PMI is declining, and the copper market is in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. The processing fee is recovering slowly, and CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [4][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper's main contract rose 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors from the Russia - Ukraine war and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. LME copper inventory was 213,400 tons with a slight increase, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,330 tons to 171,611 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: The PMI is declining [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2023, the copper market is in a tight balance, and it will be in surplus in 2024. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory remains at a high level, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is recovering slowly [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [25]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific information provided. - **Import Profit**: No specific information provided. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific information provided.