Group 1: Oil and Fat Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Palm oil: With concerns about month - end inventory growth, the Malaysian crude palm oil futures may face downward pressure to seek support around 3,800 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures may seek support at the annual line of 8,200 yuan [2]. - Soybean oil: Weak crude oil reduces the attractiveness of soybean oil as a biodiesel raw material. Abundant rainfall in US soybean - growing areas and high - yield expectations put pressure on CBOT soybeans and soy oil. In China, downstream demand is weak, and soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [2]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: From June 27 to June 30, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 50 yuan to 8,240 yuan, a decline of 0.60%; the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 18 yuan to 7,984 yuan, a decline of 0.22%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 100 yuan to 8,400 yuan, a decline of 1.18%; the futures price of P2509 decreased by 46 yuan to 8,330 yuan, a decline of 0.55%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil decreased by 70 yuan, a decline of 0.73%; the futures price of 01509 decreased by 51 yuan to 9,415 yuan, a decline of 0.54% [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Y2509 decreased by 32 yuan to 256 yuan, a decline of 11.11%; the basis of P2509 decreased by 54 yuan to 70 yuan, a decline of 43.55%; the basis of 01509 decreased by 19 yuan, a decline of 10.33%. The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 50 yuan to - 160 yuan, an increase of 23.81%; the 2509 spread increased by 28 yuan to - 346 yuan, an increase of 7.49% [2]. Group 2: Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a slight rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound height, and raw sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern. In China, the market sentiment has improved, and the bullish sentiment may last for some time. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after the rebound [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: From the previous value, the futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 28 yuan to 5,628 yuan, an increase of 0.50%; the futures price of sugar 2509 increased by 15 yuan to 5,807 yuan, an increase of 0.26%. The price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.50 cents to 16.19 cents per pound, a decline of 3.00% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production reached 1,116.21 tons, an increase of 119.89 tons or 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales reached 811.38 tons, an increase of 152.10 tons or 23.07% year - on - year. The national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 32.21 tons to 304.83 tons, a decline of 9.56% [5]. Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The contradiction of tight old - crop cotton inventory in the upstream supply cannot be resolved in the short term, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry continues to weaken, with increasing finished - product inventory. The driving force for cotton price increases is insufficient, and the cotton price is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: From the previous value, the futures price of cotton 2509 decreased by 20 yuan to 13,740 yuan, a decline of 0.15%; the futures price of cotton 2601 decreased by 5 yuan to 13,760 yuan, a decline of 0.04%. The price of ICE US cotton decreased by 1.28 cents to 68.04 cents per pound, a decline of 1.85% [6]. - **Industry Situation**: The industrial cotton inventory decreased by 1.10 tons to 93.01 tons, a decline of 1.2%; the cotton import volume decreased by 2.00 tons to 4.00 tons, a decline of 33.3%. The yarn inventory days increased by 1.52 days to 23.86 days, an increase of 6.8%; the grey - fabric inventory days increased by 2.57 days to 35.46 days, an increase of 7.8% [6]. Group 4: Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The national egg supply is sufficient, the demand is average, and downstream purchasers are cautious. Egg prices are expected to remain stable first, decline slightly in the short term, and then stabilize [8]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The futures price of the egg 09 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3,689 yuan per 500 kg, an increase of 0.44%; the futures price of the egg 07 contract increased by 18 yuan to 2,821 yuan per 500 kg, an increase of 0.64%. The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.14 yuan to 2.78 yuan per catty, a decline of 4.90% [7]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks remained at 4.00 yuan per chick; the price of culled chickens increased by 0.18 yuan to 4.62 yuan per catty, an increase of 4.05%. The egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.09 to 2.24, a decline of 3.86% [7]. Group 5: Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The US soybean planting area report had a neutral impact. The technical support for US soybeans has strengthened, and the Brazilian soybean market is boosted by the rising basis of August and September shipments. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is rising, the basis is stable, and the supply is expected to be high. The soybean meal trend is not yet clear, and there may be opportunities to go long at low prices [11]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 20 yuan to 2,840 yuan, an increase of 0.71%; the futures price of M2509 increased by 15 yuan to 2,961 yuan, an increase of 0.51%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 40 yuan to 2,470 yuan, an increase of 1.65%; the futures price of RM2509 increased by 13 yuan to 2,572 yuan, an increase of 0.51% [11]. - **Spread and Ratio**: The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 3 yuan to - 38 yuan, an increase of 7.32%; the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 2 yuan to 271 yuan, an increase of 0.74%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot decreased by 0.038 to 2.90, a decline of 1.30%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.020 to 2.70, a decline of 0.73% [11]. Group 6: Corn and Corn Starch Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The corn supply is tight, and the spot price is rising steadily. In the Northeast, the remaining grain is scarce, and traders are reluctant to sell. In North China, the corn arrival volume is low, and deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to purchase. Downstream demand is weak, but the wheat - corn price difference is shrinking, which limits the increase in corn prices. In the long term, the tight supply and increasing consumption support the upward movement of corn prices. A large - scale increase in imports is expected. The corn auction starts on July 1, and the overall trend is bullish [13][15]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The futures price of corn 2509 decreased by 6 yuan to 2,378 yuan, a decline of 0.25%; the futures price of corn starch 2509 decreased by 10 yuan to 2,733 yuan, a decline of 0.36% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The number of vehicles remaining in the morning at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 65 to 216, an increase of 43.05%. The corn starch inventory increased by 948 to 23,822, an increase of 4.14% [13]. Group 7: Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs is still in a volatile structure. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening has declined, and the slaughter procurement difficulty has slightly increased. The current breeding profit is declining, and the market capacity expansion is cautious. The market expects a potential upward trend in July and August, but there may be a risk of price decline for the 09 contract near the delivery date if the inventory is postponed [16][17]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The futures price of live pigs 2507 increased by 225 yuan to 13,850 yuan, an increase of 1.65%; the futures price of live pigs 2509 decreased by 135 yuan to 13,870 yuan, a decline of 0.96% [16]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 376 to 140,739, a decline of 0.27%. The self - breeding profit per head increased by 30.9 yuan to 50 yuan, an increase of 159.02%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding increased by 55.1 yuan to - 132 yuan, an increase of 29.49% [16].

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [3] Key Data Summary Futures Contracts - **Prices**: On June 26, BU主力合约 was at 3563, down 11 from the previous day and 132 from the previous week; BU06 was at 3274, down 6 and 142 respectively; BU09 was at 3563, down 11 and 132; BU12 was at 3396, down 9 from the previous week; BU03 was at 3321, unchanged from the previous day and down 113 from the previous week [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume on June 26 was 319,183, down 61,984 from the previous day and 40,161 from the previous week; the open interest was 497,438, down 13,001 from the previous day and 47,627 from the previous week [4]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts were 59,010, unchanged from the previous day and up 3,850 from the previous week [4]. Spot Market - **Prices**: On June 26, the low - end prices in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast China markets were 3580, 3650, 3610, 3760, and 3920 respectively. The daily changes were - 20, 0, 0, - 20, - 30, and the weekly changes were - 20, - 30, - 10, - 20, - 10 [4]. - **Price Spreads**: The Shandong - East China spread was - 70, down 20 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week; the Shandong - Northeast spread was - 340, up 10 from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week; the East China - South China spread was 40, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week [4]. Basis and Monthly Spreads - **Basis**: The Shandong basis was 17, down 9 from the previous day and up 112 from the previous week; the East China basis was 87, up 11 from the previous day and up 102 from the previous week; the South China basis was 47, up 11 from the previous day and up 122 from the previous week [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For example, the 03 - 06 spread was 47, up 6 from the previous day and up 29 from the previous week; the 06 - 09 spread was - 289, up 5 from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - **Crack Spreads**: The asphalt Brent crack spread was 34, down 48 from the previous day and up 572 from the previous week [4]. - **Profits**: The asphalt Marrow profit was - 38, down 43 from the previous day and up 518 from the previous week; the ordinary refinery comprehensive profit was 584, down 55 from the previous day and up 529 from the previous week [4]. Related Prices - **Crude Oil and Refined Products**: On June 26, Brent crude oil was at 67.7, up 0.5 from the previous day and down 11.2 from the previous week; the Shandong market price of gasoline was 7926, down 71 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week; the Shandong market price of diesel was 6918, down 45 from the previous day and up 66 from the previous week; the Shandong market price of residue oil was 3725, down 75 from the previous day and 75 from the previous week [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short - term, and a 7 - 9 reverse spread strategy is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On June 19, 2025, SP2601 was 5266 with a daily increase of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 0.42%; SP2507 was 5250 with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly decrease of 0.27%; SP2509 was 5254 with a daily increase of 0.50% and a weekly increase of 0.77% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6050 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.63%; Knitted Coniferous was 5250 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.87%; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4100 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.49% [1]. - **Outer - Disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, Chilean Star was 560 dollars, and Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, all with no monthly change [1]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 6046, Chilean Star was 4587, and Chilean Venus was 5073, all with no monthly change [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons (month - on - month - 5.01%), broad - leaf pulp imports were 119.9 tons (month - on - month - 18.44%); the pulp shipment volume to China in April 2025 was 1353 tons (month - on - month - 30.80%). The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp on June 19, 2025, was 20.9 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 19.9 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 220.8 tons (a 2.3 - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.1% week - on - week increase); the delivery warehouse inventory was 23.53 tons [1]. - **Demand**: This week, the production of major finished paper decreased, and the finished paper prices remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: The Russian coniferous basis was - 4 with a quantile level of 0.693; the Silver Star basis was 796 with a quantile level of 0.954 [1]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 4 with a quantile level of 0.619; that of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 487 with a quantile level of 0.204 [1].

s 疯皮期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/20 | | 指标 | 5/21 | 6/11 | 6/17 | 6/18 | 6/19 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3519 | 3461 | 3644 | 3695 | 3738 | 43 | 277 | | | BU06 | 3537 | 3530 | 3381 | 3416 | 3448 | 32 | -82 | | | BU09 | 3475 | 3461 | 3644 | રે કે રહ્યું હતું કે જે તે તે પ્રાપ્ય થયેલી છે. આ ગામના લોકોનો મુખ્ય વ્યવસાય ખેતી, ખેતમજૂરી તેમ જ પશુપા | 3738 | 43 | 277 | | 行 | BU12 | 3290 | 3299 | 3482 | 3527 | 3577 | 50 | 278 | | | BU03 | 3249 | 3251 | 3379 | 3434 ...

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 王凌辉 Z0019938 | | | | | | | 员知 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月19日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月18日 张跃 张跌幅 | | | | | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | | 8400 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8350 50 0.60% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, it is expected that the oil and fat market will be volatile and bullish due to external factors, but there is a risk of a high - level pullback after the event changes and the sentiment fades [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2509 for soybean oil was 8084 with a rise of 112; palm oil was 8518 with a rise of 72; and rapeseed oil was 9703 with a rise of 120. The basis of different oils in various regions showed different changes, such as the basis of soybean oil in Tianjin decreased by 10 [4] - **Monthly Spread**: For the 9 - 1 monthly spread, soybean oil was 70 with a rise of 12, palm oil was 42 with a rise of 2, and rapeseed oil was 130 with a rise of 6 [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was 434 with a rise of 40, the OI - Y spread was 1619, and the OI - P spread was 1185 with a rise of 48. The oil - meal ratio was 2.64 with a rise of 0.05 [4] - **Import Profit**: The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 190, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1238 [4] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 24th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 41.0 (compared with 37.3 last week and 84.7 last year), palm oil was 39.2, and rapeseed oil was 75.8 (compared with 76.9 last week and 41.5 last year) [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: According to ITS data, Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 43.3% month - on - month, an increase of 59.9 million tons, and the exports of crude palm oil increased by more than four times month - on - month [6] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of June 13, 2025 (the 24th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 40.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.70 million tons or 9.93%. The inventory was still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation was stable with a slight increase, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight decrease [6] - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 225.87 million tons, and the operating rate was 63.49%. As of June 13, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 84.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43 million tons or 4.22%, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level in the same period of history, and the basis was stable [6][8] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 7.15 million tons, and the operating rate was 19.06%. As of June 6, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 76.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 million tons, still at a high level in the same period of history. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation was around 1050 US dollars, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1400. The spot market was light, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight increase [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: In the short - term, it is expected that the oil and fat market will be volatile and bullish due to external factors, but beware of a high - level pullback after the event changes and the sentiment fades [10] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [11] - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [12] 3.4 Related Attached Figures - The report provides multiple figures, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil; the monthly spreads of Y 9 - 1, P 5 - 9, and OI 5 - 9; and the cross - variety spreads of Y - P 05 and OI - Y 05 [15][18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. In the short - term, the market is affected by production data, and in the long - term, Brazil's production progress and actual increase need attention [4]. - Domestically, the fast sales rate may support sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may drag down sugar prices. Short - term sugar prices are expected to remain weak [4]. - Raw sugar has declined due to expected global supply increases. In China, summer stocking demand is delayed, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar prices in the short - term [5]. - For trading strategies, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see for arbitrage, while considering out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options for options trading [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR2511 closed at 5,679 with a decrease of 12 (-0.21%), trading volume of 190,971 (-9.53%), and open interest of 371,817 (0.68%); SR2507 closed at 5,732 with a decrease of 8 (-0.14%), trading volume of 2,847 (-12.35%), and open interest of 14,281 (-6.06%); SR2509 closed at 5,588 with a decrease of 14 (-0.25%), trading volume of 25,009 (3.21%), and open interest of 51,362 (-0.07%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In regions like Liuzhou, Kunming, and Zhanjiang, spot prices ranged from 5,865 - 6,410 yuan/ton. The price in Liuzhou was 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: SR07 - SR11 spread was 144 with an increase of 6; SR09 - SR11 spread was 91 with an increase of 1; SR07 - SR09 spread was 180 with an increase of 5 [3]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price was 4,373 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5,589 yuan/ton. For Thai imports, the in - quota price was 4,425 yuan/ton, and the out - quota price was 5,657 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **International**: With Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to increase. Short - term prices are affected by production data, and long - term trends depend on Brazil's production [4]. - **Domestic**: Fast sales may support prices, but imported sugar and weak raw sugar may lead to price drops. Short - term sugar prices are expected to be weak [4]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - Raw sugar prices have declined due to expected supply increases, and China's summer stocking delay and raw sugar weakness have increased out - of - quota import profits. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar prices [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term, following raw sugar fluctuations [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It's recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Options Trading**: Consider out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options [10]. 3.5 Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, domestic sugar cumulative sales rate, Liuzhou sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, sugar September basis, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread [11][13][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different commodities show various import profit, price difference, and market trends, which are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and production and consumption patterns. Attention should be paid to policy changes and market dynamics for investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Metals - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For non - ferrous metals, understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence. Aluminum and zinc should end their reverse spreads, while for tin, with the smooth resumption of overseas and Myanmar mines and low LME inventory, pay attention to the positive spread. Nickel, zinc, copper, and aluminum all have negative import profits [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - term shipments and arrivals are increasing, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Overseas macro has strong short - term disturbances, and the domestic macro is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term opportunities for internal - external spreads, with the core being to profit from the discount of Dalian iron ore futures. In the long run, the global balance sheet is slightly in surplus compared to China's [1] - **Precious Metals**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price of precious metals, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, while India's Diwali supports gold consumption. The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3] Energy - **SC**: The spot discount on arrival has weakened, and the internal - external spread has also weakened [1] - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external spread maintains a weak pattern and has been fluctuating recently [1] - **LU**: The internal - external spread has widened again, and domestic production in June is relatively high [1] - **PG**: Recently, FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased. The internal - external spread has decreased, especially PG - CP. FEI - MB has changed little, FEI - CP has declined, and CP - MB has increased [1] - **PX**: Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external spread has converged significantly, and the valuation is gradually neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Due to the trade war and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets have gradually decoupled. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton due to high US tariffs on China. Now, after tariff cuts, Zhengzhou cotton is stronger. Continuously monitor subsequent tariff policy changes [2] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oilseeds and oils have a high degree of import dependence. The international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports. Focus on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating for the industry mentioned in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - Zheng sugar is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend. The reasons include the increasing global supply of sugar, with Brazil's central - southern region having a high - volume sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season, the arrival of imported sugar in the third quarter, the narrowing price difference between imported and domestic sugar, and the impact of low - cost substitutes on domestic sugar consumption [4]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data Domestic Spot Sugar Prices - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning warehouse is 6190 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 455 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In Yunnan, the price in Kunming is 5915 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, and the basis with SR09 is 280 yuan/ton with no change; in Dali, it is 5840 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the basis with SR09 is 245 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6205 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 370 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4]. Domestic Futures Sugar Prices - SR09 is 5735 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; SR01 is 5590 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The spread between SR09 and SR01 is 145 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [4]. Exchange Rates and International Commodity Prices - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is 7.1975, up 0.0030; the Brazilian real - RMB exchange rate is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee - RMB exchange rate is 0.084, down 0.0004. The ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.51 cents/pound, down 0.11 cents/pound; the London white sugar main contract is 573 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton; the Brent crude oil main contract is 66.65 dollars/barrel, up 1.36 dollars/barrel [4]. Supply - related Information - Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of April increased year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio remained high, and the expected sugar production in the 25/26 season may reach 42 million tons. The global supply pattern is strong. Imported sugar is expected to arrive in China starting from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter. The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil has dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot sugar has narrowed to 150 yuan/ton. From January to March, the import of syrup and premixed powder was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes are squeezing the consumption space of domestic sugar [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures market is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With the overall supply increasing and macro - instability, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it's inclined to go long at low prices [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. June maintenance is decreasing, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are de - stocking. The basis is +100, non - standard price difference is neutral, and import profit is around -500. Exports are good. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under medium to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to expand or PDH devices are frequently shut down for maintenance [5]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to production capacity commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is at a high level but decreasing. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [9]. 3) Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The price of Jiangsu spot increased from 2245 to 2317, while the price of South China spot decreased from 2278 to 2300. The import profit remained at 261 on June 5, and the daily change was 0. The main contract basis was 42, with a daily change of -3, and the MTO profit on the futures market was -966, with a daily change of -4 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780. The price of North China LL remained at 7050, and the price of East China LD increased by 25. The import profit remained at -281, and the main futures price decreased by 15. The basis decreased by 20, and the two - oil inventory remained at 73 [5]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6350 to 6350, and the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 745. The East China PP price decreased from 7020 to 7020, and the main futures price decreased by 37. The basis decreased by 20, and the two - oil inventory remained at 73 [5]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2250 on June 5. The East China calcium carbide - based PVC price decreased from 4720 to 4710. The basis (high - end delivery product) decreased from -70 to -80 [8][9].