Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Date: December 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [7] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Data - SRO9: Closing price 5,262, increase of 0.17%, volume 6,374, increase of 1,257, open interest 28,876, increase of 1,892 [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,337, increase of 34, increase rate of 0.64%, volume 173,785, increase of 20,741, open interest 289,716, decrease of 27,587 [3] - SROE: Closing price 5,244, increase of 11, increase rate of 0.21%, volume 118,780, increase of 25,273, open interest 309,725, increase of 14,181 [3] Spot Price Data - Sugar spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,505 (no change), Kunming 5,345 (decrease of 25), Wuhan 5,810 (no change), Nanning 5,430 (no change), Yingkou 0 (no data), Rizhao 5,700 (no change), Xi'an 5,960 (decrease of 20) [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 168, Kunming (data missing), Wuhan 473, Nanning 93, Rizhao 363, Xi'an 623 [3] Inter - month Spread Data - SR05 - SR01: Spread - 23, change - 33; SR09 - SR05: Spread 18, change - 2; SR09 - SR01: Spread - 75, change - 25 [3] Import Profit Data - Brazilian imports: ICE主力 14.82, premium (0.19), freight 37.75, in - quota price 4,049, out - of - quota price 5,144, spread with Liuzhou 361, spread with Rizhao 556.00, spread with the market 193 [3] - Thai imports: ICE主力 14.82, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4,082, out - of - quota price 5,192, spread with Liuzhou 313, spread with Rizhao 508.00, spread with the market 145 [3] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - As of December 8, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, 11 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 425,000 tons, 112,500 tons less than the same period last year. 16 sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, 6 more than the same period last year, with a planned daily crushing capacity of 59,900 tons, 23,500 tons more than the same period last year [5] - In November 2025, the actual arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar was 114,500 tons, and the forecasted arrival was 363,500 tons [6] Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest stage, the sugar - making ratio has decreased, and the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil is 39.179 million tons, 800,000 tons more than the same period last year. International sugar prices show signs of bottom - building and are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [8] - Domestically, sugar mills are starting to crush, and the supply and sales pressure will gradually increase. However, due to tightened imports of syrups and premixes and high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are relatively high, supporting the futures price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Brazilian sugar supply pressure is easing, international sugar prices are showing signs of bottom - building, and are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term. Domestically, although there are sales pressure, considering the high production cost and low futures price, it is recommended to build long positions at low prices [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options at low prices [10] Group 4: Related Diagrams - Diagrams include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, monthly production, Liuzhou sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, sugar basis for different months, and inter - month spreads for different contracts [11][14][17]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest market information on the oilseeds and oils industry, including inventory, export, production, price, and spread data in countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Canada [1]. Detailed Summaries 1. Inventory and Export Data - Analysts expect the US 2025 - 26 soybean year - end inventory to rise to 302 million bushels, up from the USDA's November 14 estimate of 290 million bushels [1]. - For the week ending October 30, US soybean export sales increased by 1.2485 million tons, in line with expectations, with exports to the Chinese mainland up 232,000 tons. Export shipments were 1.0285 million tons [1]. - For the week ending October 30, US soybean meal export sales increased by 219,800 tons, meeting expectations, and export shipments were 238,700 tons [1]. - ANEC predicts that Brazil's December soybean exports will reach 2.81 million tons, up from 1.47 million tons last year, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.33 million tons, down from 2.17 million tons last year [1]. - Secex data shows that Brazil exported 4.19717712 million tons of soybeans in November, a 64.40% year - on - year increase [1]. 2. Production Data - Canada's 2025 rapeseed production reached a record high, with the national yield rising to 44.7 bushels per acre and production increasing by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons [1]. 3. Price and Spread Data - **Spot Prices**: From November 28 to December 4, 2025, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, and palm oil in Guangzhou fluctuated [2]. - **Basis**: The report provides basis data for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil at different periods and locations [3][4][5]. - **Price Spreads**: The report includes various seasonal price spreads of oilseeds and oils, such as the spreads between different contract months of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the spreads between different varieties [16].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 土泽辉 Z0019938 2025年12月4日 | | 原田 | | 现价 江苏一级 8620 8620 0 0.00% | | 期价 Y2601 8286 8288 -2 -0.02% | | 墓差 Y2601 334 332 2 0.60% | | 江苏1月 01+260 01+270 现货基差报价 -10 | | 8619 | | 棕榈油 | | 12月3日 12月2日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 8720 8620 现价 广东24度 100 1.16% | | 8720 0.11% 期价 P2601 8730 10 | | 基差 P2601 -10 -100 90 90.00% | | 现货基差报价 广东1月 01+50 01+0 50 ត | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1月 9195.1 9091.7 103.4 1.14% | | 盘面进口利润 -372 -93 -25.14% 广州港1月 -465 | | 仓单 352 355 0.00% 0 | | 菜籽油 | | 现价 江苏三级 10050 10080 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2][3] - Report Date: December 3, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [5] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Disk - SR09: Closing price 5,317, down 11 (-0.21%), volume 4,413 (down 1,659), open interest 22,981 (up 1,618) [6] - SR01: Closing price 5,366, down 16 (-0.30%), volume 133,086 (down 30,887), open interest 330,181 (down 8,305) [6] - SR05: Closing price 5,297, down 19 (-0.36%), volume 60,725 (up 2,637), open interest 237,171 (up 15,382) [6] Spot Price - Sugar in Liuzhou: Today's quote 5,545, down 20, basis 179 [6] - Sugar in Kunming: Today's quote 5,410, down 5, basis 44 [6] - Sugar in Wuhan: Today's quote 5,840, down 10, basis 474 [6] - Sugar in Nanning: Today's quote 5,480, down 30 [6] - Sugar in Rizhao: Today's quote 5,750, basis 384 [6] - Sugar in Xi'an: Today's quote 6,040, down 20, basis 674 [6] Monthly Spread - SR05 - SR01: Spread -69, down 3 [6] - SR09 - SR05: Spread 20, up 8 [6] - SR09 - SR01: Spread -49, up 5 [6] Import Profit - Brazil Import: ICE main 14.77, premium (0.19), freight 38.00, in - quota price 4,071, out - of - quota price 5,173, spread with Liuzhou 372, spread with Rizhao 577, spread with the disk 193 [6] - Thailand Import: ICE main 14.77, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4,117, out - of - quota price 5,223, spread with Liuzhou 322, spread with Rizhao 527, spread with the disk 143 [6] Group 3: Market Judgment Important Information - Guangxi: As of November 30, 2025, 35 sugar mills have started crushing, 26 less than the same period last year; cumulative cane crushed 1.4411 million tons, 3.2521 million tons less than last year; mixed sugar production 133,900 tons, 378,500 tons less than last year; mixed sugar yield 9.29%, 1.63 percentage points lower than last year; cumulative sugar sales 89,400 tons, 195,600 tons less than last year; sales ratio 66.77%, 11.15 percentage points higher than last year; new sugar industrial inventory 44,500 tons, 182,900 tons less than last year [8] - Yunnan: As of November 30, 2025, 10 sugar mills have started crushing (5 last year); cumulative cane crushed 439,400 tons (349,700 tons last season); sugar production 44,800 tons (38,600 tons last season); sugar yield 10.22% (11.05% last season); cumulative new sugar sales 32,200 tons (32,600 tons last year); sales ratio 71.89% (84.50% last year); industrial inventory 12,600 tons (5,900 tons last year) [9] - Brazil: The growth of ethanol demand in Brazil should ensure that the expansion of corn as a bio - fuel raw material will not endanger sugarcane ethanol producers. Since the early 2000s, Brazil's corn ethanol production has more than tripled, while sugarcane ethanol production has remained roughly flat [11] Logical Analysis - International: Brazilian sugarcane is expected to gradually enter the harvest stage, and producing ethanol is more advantageous, so the sugar - making ratio has decreased significantly recently. The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is 39.179 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out, with a short - term price trend slightly stronger in a volatile manner [12] - Domestic: In the short term, domestic sugar mills are starting to crush one after another, and the output in the new season will increase, so the supply and sales pressure will gradually increase. However, considering the tightened import of syrup and premixed powder in China and the relatively high previous point - pricing cost, the domestic sugar production cost is also high, which provides some support for the futures price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [12] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: As the Brazilian sugar season is approaching the end, the supply - side pressure is easing, and the international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out, with a short - term expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner. Although the domestic market has an unexpectedly large amount of imported sugar and the start of sugar mills, increasing the sales pressure, considering the high domestic white sugar production cost and the relatively low current futures price, the downward space is expected to be limited. Short - term long positions can be considered to be built at low prices [13] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [14] - Options: Sell put options at low levels [14] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, Guangxi monthly production, Yunnan monthly production, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, sugar September basis, Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread, sugar January basis, Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spread, sugar May basis, Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 spread, etc. [15][20][23][24][29][31]

伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗发 运110w，预计12-1月进口下降较难，盘面01给进口无风险套机会，认为01终点仍是高库存，偏向逢高 做15反套。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司授权，不得随意转 载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力 造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担 任何责任。 塑 料 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound between ports and the inland, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but considering the large floating storage, it is expected to return to a state of inventory accumulation. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to expect a significant decline in imports from December to January. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the end - state of the 01 contract will still be high inventory. It is advisable to take advantage of high prices to conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread operation [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream, the two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream, raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding remains stable, other price differentials fluctuate, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance operations in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has recently decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream inventory of the two major oil companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Against the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face a moderately excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance operations, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - For PVC, the basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. During the summer, the northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recently, the near - end export orders have slightly declined. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [6]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the动力煤期货price remained at 801. The prices of江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, and CFR东南亚 showed various changes. For example, the江苏 spot price increased from 2053 to 2100, and the CFR China price increased from 237 to 247 [1]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Iranian plants have shut down, leading to a resonance rebound between ports and the inland. The basis has strengthened slightly, and port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but there is a large amount of floating storage. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to expect a significant decline in imports from December to January [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the东北亚乙烯price remained at 730 on some days. The prices of华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, and LL美湾 showed fluctuations. For example, the华北LL price decreased from 6760 to 6680 and then increased to 6720 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral compared to the same period. Upstream, the two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream, raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the山东丙烯price changed from 5900 to 6000, and the东北亚丙烯price remained at 695 on some days. The prices of华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, and PP美湾 also showed fluctuations. For example, the华东PP price decreased from 6285 to 6205 and then increased to 6270 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The upstream inventory of the two major oil companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the西北电石price increased from 2450 to 2500, and the山东烧碱price remained at 777 on some days. The prices of电石法 - 华东,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南,电石法 - 西北,进口美金价, and出口利润 also showed changes. For example, the电石 - based PVC price in East China increased from 4530 to 4560 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. During the summer, the northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: In Malaysia, the BMD crude palm oil futures may gradually recover and rise after the release of risks following the MPOB report and as India returns to the market next month. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, with an expected support level at 8200. - Soybean oil: The uncertainty of biodiesel policies and short - term soybean export data affect the CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestically, the increase in soybean oil production and weak downstream demand lead to an increase in inventory, but the poor oil - mill profit and weak demand for soybean meal support the price. The spot basis quotation will maintain a narrow - range oscillation [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry The market supply is recovering, and the demand support is limited. Although there are sporadic epidemics in the Northeast, large - scale outbreaks are unlikely. The pig price is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating structure, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [4]. 2.3 Meal Industry The US soybean market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the South American new - crop soybean planting progress is good. Domestically, the soybean inventory is high, and the meal supply is loose. The meal price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [6]. 2.4 Corn Industry The corn price in the Northeast is strong due to limited logistics and storage support, while the price in North China is affected by the increase in supply. The demand side has different inventory replenishment intentions. The short - term supply - demand mismatch makes the futures price strong, but attention should be paid to the pressure caused by concentrated grain sales [9]. 2.5 Sugar Industry The ICE raw sugar futures are rising. Although the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region is expected to increase in the first half of November, the early end of the harvest and lower ethanol inventory support the price. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern [13][14]. 2.6 Cotton Industry The ICE cotton futures are rising due to the US Department of Agriculture's export sales report and a weaker dollar. Domestically, the high production of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season brings hedging pressure, but the strong basis and downstream demand support the price. The cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry The current egg price is below the feed cost line, and the inventory in production and circulation links has decreased. It is expected that the egg price will have limited downward space and will oscillate at a low level, with attention paid to the support at the previous low [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean oil**: On November 25, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8510 yuan/ton (up 0.24% from the previous day), the futures price of Y2601 was 8144 yuan/ton (down 0.29% from the previous day), and the basis was 13.66%. The inventory of soybean oil in factories increased by 30,000 tons last weekend [1]. - **Palm oil**: On November 25, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8370 yuan/ton (down 0.71% from the previous day), the futures price of P2601 was 8360 yuan/ton (down 1.48% from the previous day). The盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port in January was 8932.4 yuan/ton (down 1.08% from the previous day), and the盘面 import profit was - 543 yuan/ton (down 5.32% from the previous day) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On November 25, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10190 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of OI601 was 9818 yuan/ton (up 0.41% from the previous day), and the basis was - 9.71% [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry - **Futures indicators**: The main contract price of live pigs was 11995 yuan/ton (up 0.59% from the previous day), the 1 - 5 spread was - 580 yuan/ton (down 10.48% from the previous day), and the main contract position decreased by 4.44% [4]. - **Spot prices**: The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend, with the price in Henan dropping by 150 - 180 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot indicators**: The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 0.04%, the white - strip price decreased by 100%, the self - breeding profit decreased by 18.37%, and the外购 breeding profit decreased by 14.10% [4]. 3.3 Meal Industry - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3000 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of M2601 was 3013 yuan/ton (up 0.07% from the previous day), and the basis was - 18.18%. The盘面 import profit for Brazilian February shipments increased by 333.3% [6]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2460 yuan/ton (up 0.82% from the previous day), the futures price of RM2601 was 2431 yuan/ton (down 0.61% from the previous day), and the basis was 583.33%. The盘面 import profit for Canadian January shipments increased by 9.54% [6]. - **Soybean**: The spot price in Harbin was 3940 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4108 yuan/ton (down 1.01% from the previous day), and the basis was 20% [6]. 3.4 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2601 was 2242 yuan/ton (up 0.99% from the previous day), the basis was - 6.67%, the 1 - 5 spread was 52.27%, the import profit increased by 8.49%, and the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 7.46% [9]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2601 was 2556 yuan/ton (up 0.83% from the previous day), the basis decreased by 84%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.13%, and the starch - corn 01盘面 spread decreased by 0.32%. The profit of Shandong's starch enterprises increased by 1000% [9]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - **Futures market**: The sugar 2601 futures price was 5387 yuan/ton (up 0.32% from the previous day), the 1 - 5 spread increased by 21.57%, and the main contract position decreased by 2.73% [13]. - **Spot market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were unchanged. The import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) increased by 0.59%, and the import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) increased by 0.62% [13]. - **Industry situation**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03%, the sales increased by 9.17%, the national industrial inventory decreased by 41.20%, and the sugar import increased by 37.50% [13]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures market**: The cotton 2605 futures price was 13580 yuan/ton (up 0.37% from the previous day), the cotton 2601 futures price was 13645 yuan/ton (up 0.44% from the previous day), the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 18.18%, and the main contract position increased by 0.09% [15]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.17%, the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.26%, and the FC Index: M: 1% increased by 0.18% [15]. - **Industry situation**: The industrial inventory increased by 24.2%, the import volume decreased by 10%, the textile industry's inventory decreased by 25%, and the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6% [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures indicators**: The egg 12 - contract price was 2950 yuan/500KG (down 1.42% from the previous day), the egg 01 - contract price was 3210 yuan/500KG (down 0.25% from the previous day), and the 12 - 01 spread decreased by 13.08% [18]. - **Spot indicators**: The egg - producing area price increased by 1.11%, the egg - chick price decreased by 3.57%, the culled - hen price decreased by 3.96%, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 3.33%. The breeding profit decreased by 18.60% [18]. - **Inventory situation**: The production - link inventory decreased by 8.62%, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 2.22% [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and high imports are likely in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory reduction difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it does not affect methanol profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating, with LD weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [4]. - **PP**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The production of drawing materials is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. - **PVC**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the price of thermal coal futures remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2010 to 2053, the South China spot price increased from 2005 to 2028, and the Northwest discounted price increased from 2568 to 2588. The daily change on November 24 showed an increase in most prices, with the largest increase in the import profit, which rose by 64 [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 730 on some days. The North China LL price increased from 6770 to 6760, and the East China LL price remained at 7000 on some days and then decreased slightly. The two - oil inventory decreased from 71 to a lower level, and the warehouse receipt decreased from 12017 to 11721. The daily change on November 24 showed an increase in the主力期货 price by 23 and a decrease in the warehouse receipt by 114 [4]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained at 5900 on some days. The East China PP price decreased from 6340 to 6285, and the North China PP price decreased from 6315 to 6255. The two - oil inventory decreased from 71 to a lower level, and the export profit showed some fluctuations. The daily change on November 24 showed a decrease in most prices and a 15 - point increase in the主力期货 price [4]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2450 to 2450 (with a 50 - point increase on November 24), and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 792 to 777. The East China price of calcium carbide - based PVC increased from 4520 to 4530. The basis of the high - end delivery product increased from - 90 to - 70 [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face further downward pressure, and Dalian palm oil futures are likely to continue to weaken. [1] - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is in a rebound after over - selling, and domestic soybean oil is supported by high import costs but has a pattern of sufficient supply and weak demand. [1] Meal - U.S. soybeans face supply - demand pressure, and South American new - crop soybeans have good planting progress, so the supply pressure continues to be released. Domestic meal prices are expected to oscillate widely. [2] Corn - Corn prices are affected by the rhythm of supply. In the short - term, the futures market is strong, but subsequent selling pressure may limit the gains. [5] Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening structure. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held. [10] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to oscillate around 14 cents per pound. Domestic sugar prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening pattern this week. [13] Cotton - Globally, the cotton supply is loose. Domestically, cotton prices may oscillate in a range in the short - term. [14] Eggs - Egg prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at the previous low. [17] Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with November 21, soybean oil's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 8490 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) decreased by 22 yuan to 8168 yuan, and the basis increased by 42 yuan to 322 yuan. Palm oil's spot price in Guangdong decreased by 40 yuan to 8430 yuan, the futures price (P2601) decreased by 64 yuan to 8486 yuan, and the basis increased by 24 yuan to - 56 yuan. Rapeseed oil's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 10190 yuan, the futures price (OI601) decreased by 38 yuan to 9778 yuan, and the basis increased by 58 yuan to 412 yuan. [1] Meal - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, soybean meal's spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3000 yuan, the futures price (M2601) decreased by 1 yuan to 3011 yuan, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to - 11 yuan. Rapeseed meal's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 2440 yuan, the futures price (RM2601) increased by 12 yuan to 2446 yuan, and the basis increased by 5 yuan to - 6 yuan. [2] Corn - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of corn 2601 increased by 25 yuan to 2220 yuan, the basis increased by 5 yuan to 30 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13 yuan to - 44 yuan. [5] Live Pigs - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of live pigs 2605 increased by 65 yuan to 11925 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan to - 525 yuan. The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 11550 yuan. [10] Sugar - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5370 yuan, the Nanning spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5450 yuan, and the Nanning basis decreased by 47 yuan to 131 yuan. [13] Cotton - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 82 yuan to 13530 yuan, the 5 - 1 spread increased by 40 yuan to - 50 yuan, and the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 3 yuan to 14574 yuan. [14] Eggs - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the price of the egg 12 - contract increased by 16 yuan to 2950 yuan per 500KG, the egg - producing area price decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.84 yuan per catty, and the basis increased by 43 yuan to - 302 yuan per 500KG. [17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content was provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the deliverable, and there is limited room for further increase. Consider closing the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiating a 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spread [5][10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, SP2601 was 5396, down 0.22% day - on - day and 1.57% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4858, down 0.29% day - on - day and 0.61% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5398, down 0.22% day - on - day and 1.46% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5400, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Golden Fish was 4400, unchanged [5] - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In November 2025, the outer - market quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars, down 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Golden Fish was 530 dollars, up 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Golden Fish was 4344, up 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp on November 13, 2025, was 22.9 tons; chemimechanical pulp was 23.6 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [5] - **Demand**: As of November 13, 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.90 tons; coated paper was 8.30 tons; tissue paper was 28.48 tons; white cardboard was 36.20 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 19, 2025, the Russian coniferous pulp basis was 542, with a quantile level of 0.961; the Silver Star basis was 692, with a quantile level of 0.908 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 19, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9, with a quantile level of 0.594; broadleaf pulp Golden Fish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.704 [5]