Group 1 - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors including Federal Reserve monetary policy, tariff policies, U.S. economic data, and dollar movements [2][3] - Despite short-term pressure on gold prices, there is optimism regarding the long-term outlook due to support from dip-buying and the uncertain tariff policies enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal [2][3] - The divergence in market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction is indicated by the strong buying interest in gold despite rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are experiencing volatility, with significant resistance around $3343 and support levels between $3310 and $3282 [3][5] - The trading strategy suggests a focus on short positions when prices rebound to resistance levels, while also considering long positions at lower support levels [6][5] - The market is expected to remain in a wide-ranging fluctuation, with potential for significant price movements on Fridays, influenced by broader economic indicators and geopolitical tensions [5][6]

美股三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.29%，标普500指数涨0.25%，纳指涨0.19%。阿斯麦跌超8%，管理层 警告2026年增长或无法实现。加密货币概念股SharpLink Gaming涨超16%。特斯拉涨近1%，特斯拉大六 座Model Y L将于今年秋季上市交付。 ...

Macroeconomy - Domestic policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures, with supply - side reform expectations rising in industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, and leading stocks' valuations being repaired [2] - Trump's tariff delay to August 1 eases short - term pressure, but long - term uncertainty may suppress foreign - trade - dependent sectors [2] - The domestic A - share market continues to rise, with broad - based indexes hitting new highs this year. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.07%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.12%, and the SSE 50 Index rose 0.92%. Overall, large - cap stocks rose moderately, mid - cap stocks showed resilience, and small - cap stocks led the gains [2] - The mid - term trend of stock index futures is still biased towards volatile upward movement under low risk - free interest rates and policy -利好 expectations, but short - term pullback risks should be vigilant [2] Crude Oil - The low US dollar index supports oil prices, but the US non - farm payroll data reduces the possibility of a July interest rate cut, and the OPEC + July meeting has an expectation of accelerated production increase, so short - term oil prices will mainly fluctuate [3] - The IEA raises the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.1 million barrels per day. The OPEC + July meeting may increase production, so the long - term price center of crude oil will move down. However, the upcoming summer peak season provides some support for oil prices [3] - WTI main contract is expected to start a rebound around $65 per barrel [3] Gold - Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to mixed factors for gold prices. The market bets that the probability of a September interest rate cut is 65.4%, but the expectation of no action in July still accounts for 92.8%. Gold prices are under short - term pressure [4] - On July 11, Asian - session spot gold fluctuated higher, trading around $3350 per ounce [4] - Spot gold may test the resistance of $3342 per ounce. If it breaks through, it may rise to the range of $3357 - $3374. In the short term, it may maintain a high - level volatile state [6] Silver - On July 11, the international spot silver price continued to rise, breaking through $38 per ounce to reach $38.06 per ounce, hitting the highest level since 2012 [7] - The Fed's June meeting minutes show differences among officials on interest rate cuts. Trump's tariff delay causes supply - chain anxiety. The increase in Shanghai silver registered warrants indicates spot support [7] - If spot silver effectively breaks through $37.5, it may rise to the range of $38.8 - $40. Be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" of the Fed's July decision and inflation rebound pressure after the August tariff implementation [7] Chemicals PTA - The raw material PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the current PTA spot processing fee is at a relatively low level, so the short - term cost support for prices is strengthening. PTA supply pressure increases significantly, while demand is weak [8] - PTA will continue the range - bound trend in the short term [8] Ethylene Glycol - The overall ethylene glycol operating load and coal - based operating rate increase, but the whole process is in deep loss except for coal - based with a small profit. Low inventory supports prices, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the third quarter and other factors suppress the upward space [9] - The short - term price of ethylene glycol may maintain a range - bound state between 4200 - 4400 yuan per ton [9] PVC - PVC production capacity utilization rate changes slightly, demand from downstream products enterprises has no obvious improvement, and social inventory increases. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10][11] PP - The average polypropylene capacity utilization rate and production decrease slightly, downstream industry average opening rate drops, and port inventory decreases. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [12] Plastic - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises decreases, the average opening rate of downstream products has a slight change, and the inventory of production enterprises increases. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash supply is relatively stable, inventory increases, and demand is average. The market has limited new driving forces, and it is in a bottom - range - bound trend. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range - bound thinking in the short term [14] Glass - Glass supply increases slightly, inventory continues to decline, and demand is weak. The market fundamentals have limited driving forces, and the disk fluctuates greatly affected by macro - sentiment and enterprise price increases. It is recommended to treat it with a slightly bullish and volatile thinking in the short term [15][16] Rubber - Rubber prices are affected by macro factors. The supply is in a loose state as the main producing areas have good weather and new rubber production increases. The downstream tire opening rate decreases, and trade negotiations affect export orders. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream opening rate and the rebound height [17] Methanol - The methanol futures price decreases, port inventory increases, the domestic operating rate drops due to device maintenance, and the demand of MTO devices increases slightly while traditional downstream demand is weak. The short - term futures price will be range - bound [18] Agricultural Products Corn - The US 2025 corn planting area is slightly lower than expected, which supports the futures price. The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain transition period, and the price fluctuates downward affected by wheat substitution and policy - grain auctions. The downstream demand is weak [19] - The short - term corn futures price will test the support around 2300 yuan per ton [19] Peanut - The estimated domestic peanut planting area in 2025 is expected to increase year - on - year. Currently, the market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak, with prices difficult to have large fluctuations. The short - term futures price will be range - bound [20] Cotton - The US cotton production forecast is revised downward. The domestic new - year cotton supply is expected to be loose, but the short - term supply is expected to be tight before the new cotton harvest. The demand is weak. The short - term cotton price will run with a slightly bullish and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 14000 yuan per ton [21] Soybean Meal - Internationally, tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for prices. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is prominent, and the demand is strong. The short - term soybean meal futures price will be range - bound [22] Soybean Oil - Internationally, attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean oil is large, and it is in the consumption off - season. The short - term soybean oil futures price will be range - bound [23] Pig - The long - term pig market will continue to release production capacity. In the short term, the slowdown of supply rhythm supports prices, while terminal consumption is weak. The short - term futures price will run with a slightly bullish and volatile trend, and it is expected to test the 14500 yuan per ton level [24][25] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient, demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price will be in a low - level volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Metals Shanghai Copper - The US copper import tariff issue causes large fluctuations in US copper prices. Domestic policies support the market, but raw material problems and inventory changes make the copper market more complex. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the retest strength of the moving - average system [27] Shanghai Aluminum - Trump's tariff policy causes fluctuations in the metal market. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is high, demand is in the off - season, and inventory begins to accumulate. It is recommended that aggressive investors conduct range operations, and conservative investors wait and see [28] Alumina - The supply of bauxite is tight, and the demand for alumina is rigid but the procurement rhythm slows down. The inventory is at a relatively low level in the past four years, and the main contract may test the pressure level of 3300 yuan per ton [30] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported by tight scrap - aluminum supply, but the supply is in excess, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is increasing. The 2511 contract will maintain a range - bound state [31] Lithium Carbonate - The cost of lithium carbonate is supported by stable lithium - ore prices and large inventory reduction. Supply is at a high level, demand is in the off - season, and the futures price stops rising. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait for signals [32] Industrial Silicon - The production of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in July. Although large - scale enterprises' production cuts reduce the supply surplus, the supply is still large. The demand varies in different fields. The short - term futures price will be slightly bullish and volatile, but the long - term supply - demand imbalance may intensify [33] Polysilicon - The supply of polysilicon shows structural differentiation, and the demand side has strong bargaining power. The market trading is light. The short - term price may be slightly bullish and volatile, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of price decline [34][35] Black Metals Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel disk is in a weak and volatile state. The raw - material cost supports prices, supply pressure exists, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory decreases slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the low - level range [36] Rebar - The rebar disk rebounds strongly due to improved macro - sentiment. The cost support is strengthened, demand increases slightly in the off - season, inventory is low, and supply is expected to shrink. It is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish thinking and hold long positions [37] Hot - Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil disk rebounds and then consolidates. Similar to rebar, it is affected by macro - sentiment, cost support, and supply - demand factors. It is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish thinking and hold long positions [38] Iron Ore - The global iron - ore shipment volume decreases in July, demand is weak in the off - season, and port inventory is at a high level. The main contract will be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term [39] Coal - The supply of coking coal improves marginally but the increase is limited. The demand for terminal steel supports coal prices, and inventory decreases. The supply of coke is tight as inventory is reduced, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm increases. The main contracts of coking coal and coke will be slightly bullish and volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [40][41]

·银河期货：预计贵金属下方的支撑仍强将延续偏强走势 ·国投期货：风险情绪可能反复贵金属震荡为主 ·东海期货：黄金中长期支撑逻辑坚实未改 ·东海期货认为，金价在政策预期摇摆与避险情绪反复中维持震荡。特朗普威胁对金砖国家加征新关税 一定程度激发避险买盘，支撑贵金属上行，但美元技术性反弹叠加美债收益率上行压制金价涨幅。美联 储6月会议纪要显示内部分歧，黄金波动率有所上升。受有色共振影响，白银相对强势运行，金银比显 著修复。短期市场主要扰动因素仍为关税政策，白银受有色共振影响短期偏强。中长期支撑逻辑坚实未 改，"大而美法案＂推升财政赤字加速美元信用消耗，地缘不确定性及经济放缓预期则巩固黄金配置价 值。本周重点关注美国CPI数据及后续美联储官员发言，以判断下一步政策路径。 ·RJO Futures高级市场策略师Daniel Pavilonis指出，除非地缘政治局势出现重大升级，否则金价短期内难 以突破每盎司3400美元的关口，预计将维持区间震荡格局。这一判断反映了当前市场对黄金的谨慎乐观 态度，避险需求为金价提供了支撑，但美元和美债收益率的上行压力不容忽视。 ·盛宝银行（Saxo Bank）大宗商品策略主管Ole Ha ...

Report Overview - The report is issued by Green大华 Futures Research Institute on July 14, 2025, focusing on the morning session notice of precious metals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sector [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The prices of gold and silver in the precious metals sector are in a state of oscillation. The price of COMEX gold is expected to range between 3250 - 3480 dollars per ounce, and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract is expected to operate between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. Silver has reached new highs, and after a significant and rapid increase, it may adjust at any time. It is recommended to hold long positions [1] Key Information Summary Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 1.34% to 3370.3 dollars per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.74% to 39.08 dollars per ounce. At night, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.68% to 778.42 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 2.38% to 9232 yuan per kilogram [1] ETF Holdings - As of July 11, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.17 tons from the previous day to 947.64 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 131.41 tons from the previous day to 14758.52 tons [1] CFTC Data - As of the week ending July 8, COMEX gold speculators reduced their net long positions by 1,855 contracts to 134,842 contracts [1] Tariff Policy - On July 12, local time, Trump announced on social media that starting from August 1, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU. On July 9, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, effective from August 1, 2025 [1] Market Logic - US fiscal deficits and tariff policies have increased inflation concerns. The US dollar index rebounded slightly on July 11 and then fluctuated narrowly horizontally. Gold prices rose on July 11, and silver prices increased significantly [1] Trading Strategy - Gold prices are oscillating, with COMEX gold operating between 3250 - 3480 dollars per ounce and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract operating between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. Silver has reached new highs, and after a significant and rapid increase, it may adjust at any time. It is recommended to hold long positions [1]

Report Investment Rating The report does not mention the investment rating of the industry. Core Viewpoints - Tariff risks have intensified, leading to a collective decline in US stocks, an upward trend in US Treasury yields, a rebound in the US dollar, and increases in copper, gold, silver, and oil prices [1][9][10]. - Fed officials' hawkish stances have cooled the market's expectations for interest rate cuts [2][24]. - Trump's tariff policies have been the focus this week, with data indicating that tariffs were effectively implemented from May to June [3][30]. - The overall overseas economic situation shows mixed trends, with changes in recession probabilities, employment, demand, production, shipping, prices, and financial conditions [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market Weekly Review - **Equity**: US stocks fell collectively due to tariff impacts, while European stocks rose. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq dropped by 0.31%, 1.02%, and 0.08% respectively. The German DAX, Eurozone STOXX, and London FTSE 100 increased by 1.97%, 1.79%, and 1.34% respectively [9]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar rebounded, with the dollar index rising 0.91%. The euro, yen, and yuan against the dollar decreased by 0.7%, 2.0%, and increased by 0.1% respectively [9]. - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury yields continued to rise due to inflation concerns, lower - than - expected jobless claims, and hawkish Fed officials. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries rose by 2BP and 8BP respectively [10]. - **Commodities**: Copper prices soared, and gold, silver, and oil prices also increased. COMEX copper rose 9.5%, WTI crude oil rose 3.4%, and COMEX silver and gold rose 6.9% and 1.1% respectively [10]. 2. Overseas Policies and Key News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - Fed officials' stances were hawkish. Some believed that the impact of tariffs would be fully felt later this year or early next year, and new tariff threats might delay interest rate cuts [2][24]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts cooled. As of July 12, the probability of a rate cut by September was 60.4% (down from 69.4% a week ago), and the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 decreased from 2.25 to 2.01 [2][24]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Tariff Announcements**: Trump announced "Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0" for 25 countries or regions on August 1, with different tariff rates for each. He also announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1 and threatened a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals [3][30]. - **Tariff Implementation Data**: In June, US tariff revenue reached $27 billion, a 301% year - on - year increase. In May, the average effective tariff rate was 6.95%, up 3.25 percentage points from January, and the effective tariff on China was 45.6%, up 34.7 percentage points from January [3][30]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Prosperity - The probability of a US recession was 35% (down from 37.5% a week ago), and the eurozone recession probability remained at 30%. The US weekly economic activity index rose, while Germany's declined [4][42]. - The Fed's expectations for US Q2 economic growth remained unchanged [46]. 3.2 Employment - The number of initial jobless claims decreased to 227,000, lower than expected and declining for the fourth consecutive week. The number of continued unemployment benefit recipients rose slightly to 1.965 million [51]. 3.3 Demand - US retail sales increased, with the Redbook commercial retail sales annual rate rising from 4.9% to 5.9%. Airport security check - in numbers decreased but were higher than last year, and railway transportation volume declined [55]. - Mortgage interest rates rose slightly, and real estate market activity rebounded [55]. 3.4 Production - The US production sector remained highly prosperous. Crude steel capacity utilization and production were higher than last year, while refinery capacity utilization was slightly lower [62]. 3.5 Shipping - International freight indicators showed mixed trends. The Baltic Dry Index rose 15.8%, and the Panamax Freight Index fell 22.4%. The Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) dropped 8.5% [65]. - Export demand from Ningbo and Shanghai continued to decline [67]. 3.6 Prices - US retail gasoline prices rose 0.29% to $3.157 per gallon. Inflation expectations in the swap market increased, with the 1 - year inflation swap rising 0.21 percentage points to 3.37% and the 2 - year inflation swap rising 0.11 percentage points to 2.93% [69]. 3.7 Financial Conditions - US financial pressure decreased. The OFR US Financial Stress Index fell to - 1.045, and the CCC high - yield bond credit spread decreased to 8.53%. The SOFR - ON RRP spread averaged 8.0bp [71]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders Next week, key overseas events include US inflation data (CPI, PPI, import price index), US retail sales, and the US stock earnings season [76].

关于鲍威尔考虑辞职的消息突然刷屏。 美东时间7月11日，美国联邦住房金融局局长兼房利美和房地美董事会主席比尔·普尔特发表声明称："有报道 称美联储主席鲍威尔正在考虑辞职，这将是对美国的正确决定。"对此，美联储发言人拒绝置评。 在上述消息传出后，美股三大指数周五盘中一度短线跳水。有分析称，市场的负面反应凸显了投资者对美联储 潜在领导层变动的敏感性，尤其是在经济不确定时期。 与此同时，美联储官员的最新讲话也引发市场关注。芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比周五警告称，美国总统 特朗普公布的新关税可能再次引发通胀担忧，迫使美联储维持观望态度。 "鲍威尔考虑辞职" 美东时间7月11日，有媒体报道称，一位特朗普政府高级官员公开暗示，因美联储华盛顿总部翻新项目面临的 压力，美联储主席鲍威尔可能"考虑辞职"。 比尔·普尔特在 美国联邦住房金融局 (FHFA) 官网发表声明称："有报道称杰罗姆·鲍威尔正在考虑辞职，这让我 感到鼓舞。我认为这将是对美国的正确决定，经济将会繁荣。" 对于辞职传闻，美联储发言人拒绝置评，仅重申鲍威尔此前在4月4日的表态，即他打算完成其到2026年5月的 任期。 这场风波的导火索是，鲍威尔被指在国会就美联 ...

因通胀担忧，美债连续第二周下跌。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that silver prices are on an upward trend due to geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and positive price expectations, with predictions that silver will surpass gold in investment value by 2025 [1] - In the first half of this year, silver ETF net inflows reached 95 million ounces, surpassing the total for 2024, and bringing global silver ETF holdings to 1.13 billion ounces by the end of June, close to the historical high of 1.21 billion ounces set in early 2021 [1] - The value of silver holdings exceeded $40 billion for the first time in June, with monthly purchases contributing nearly half of the year-to-date increase [1] Group 2 - As of the latest market dynamics, silver futures closed at the second-highest level of the year, with a year-to-date increase of 28%, outpacing gold's 26% [2] - The current market is focused on various silver investment tools, including SLV and PSLV, as well as diversified combinations like GDXJ, NUGT, and others, indicating strong global capital expectations for silver [2] - The real-time price of silver is reported at $37.735 per ounce, reflecting active trading and positive market sentiment towards silver's future [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of President Trump's announcement of high tariffs on imports from 14 countries, leading to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets and raising concerns about inflation and interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 422.17 points, or 0.94%, closing at 44,406.36 points, while the Nasdaq dropped by 0.92% to 20,412.52 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.79% to 6,229.98 points [1]. - The announcement of tariffs has led to increased uncertainty in the market, with analysts suggesting that the market may begin to question its current pricing scenarios if tariff uncertainties rise [2] [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Outlook - The tariffs have complicated the Federal Reserve's path for interest rate cuts, with the market currently pricing in a 95% chance of no rate change in July and nearly 60% probability of a cut in September [4]. - Rising U.S. Treasury yields were noted, with the 10-year yield increasing by 4 basis points to 4.39% and the 2-year yield rising by 1.3 basis points to 3.91% [2]. Group 3: Individual Stock Movements - Tesla shares fell by 6.8% following comments from Elon Musk expressing dissatisfaction with Trump's tax and spending policies [5]. - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Apple down 1.6%, Google down 1.5%, and Nvidia down 0.6%, while Amazon saw a slight increase of 0.03% [6]. - Dow Chemical's stock dropped by 3.4% after the company announced plans to sell several assets, incurring costs between $630 million and $790 million [7]. - Uber's stock rose by 3.2% after Wells Fargo raised its target price from $100 to $120, maintaining an overweight rating [8]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - International oil prices rebounded by over 1%, with WTI crude oil increasing by 1.39% to $67.93 per barrel and Brent crude rising by 1.87% to $69.58 per barrel, driven by strong demand [9]. - Gold prices saw a slight increase, with COMEX gold futures for July delivery rising by 0.02% to $3,332.20 per ounce [10].