关于鲍威尔考虑辞职的消息突然刷屏。 美东时间7月11日，美国联邦住房金融局局长兼房利美和房地美董事会主席比尔·普尔特发表声明称："有报道 称美联储主席鲍威尔正在考虑辞职，这将是对美国的正确决定。"对此，美联储发言人拒绝置评。 在上述消息传出后，美股三大指数周五盘中一度短线跳水。有分析称，市场的负面反应凸显了投资者对美联储 潜在领导层变动的敏感性，尤其是在经济不确定时期。 与此同时，美联储官员的最新讲话也引发市场关注。芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比周五警告称，美国总统 特朗普公布的新关税可能再次引发通胀担忧，迫使美联储维持观望态度。 "鲍威尔考虑辞职" 美东时间7月11日，有媒体报道称，一位特朗普政府高级官员公开暗示，因美联储华盛顿总部翻新项目面临的 压力，美联储主席鲍威尔可能"考虑辞职"。 比尔·普尔特在 美国联邦住房金融局 (FHFA) 官网发表声明称："有报道称杰罗姆·鲍威尔正在考虑辞职，这让我 感到鼓舞。我认为这将是对美国的正确决定，经济将会繁荣。" 对于辞职传闻，美联储发言人拒绝置评，仅重申鲍威尔此前在4月4日的表态，即他打算完成其到2026年5月的 任期。 这场风波的导火索是，鲍威尔被指在国会就美联 ...

因通胀担忧，美债连续第二周下跌。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that silver prices are on an upward trend due to geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and positive price expectations, with predictions that silver will surpass gold in investment value by 2025 [1] - In the first half of this year, silver ETF net inflows reached 95 million ounces, surpassing the total for 2024, and bringing global silver ETF holdings to 1.13 billion ounces by the end of June, close to the historical high of 1.21 billion ounces set in early 2021 [1] - The value of silver holdings exceeded $40 billion for the first time in June, with monthly purchases contributing nearly half of the year-to-date increase [1] Group 2 - As of the latest market dynamics, silver futures closed at the second-highest level of the year, with a year-to-date increase of 28%, outpacing gold's 26% [2] - The current market is focused on various silver investment tools, including SLV and PSLV, as well as diversified combinations like GDXJ, NUGT, and others, indicating strong global capital expectations for silver [2] - The real-time price of silver is reported at $37.735 per ounce, reflecting active trading and positive market sentiment towards silver's future [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of President Trump's announcement of high tariffs on imports from 14 countries, leading to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets and raising concerns about inflation and interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 422.17 points, or 0.94%, closing at 44,406.36 points, while the Nasdaq dropped by 0.92% to 20,412.52 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.79% to 6,229.98 points [1]. - The announcement of tariffs has led to increased uncertainty in the market, with analysts suggesting that the market may begin to question its current pricing scenarios if tariff uncertainties rise [2] [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Outlook - The tariffs have complicated the Federal Reserve's path for interest rate cuts, with the market currently pricing in a 95% chance of no rate change in July and nearly 60% probability of a cut in September [4]. - Rising U.S. Treasury yields were noted, with the 10-year yield increasing by 4 basis points to 4.39% and the 2-year yield rising by 1.3 basis points to 3.91% [2]. Group 3: Individual Stock Movements - Tesla shares fell by 6.8% following comments from Elon Musk expressing dissatisfaction with Trump's tax and spending policies [5]. - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Apple down 1.6%, Google down 1.5%, and Nvidia down 0.6%, while Amazon saw a slight increase of 0.03% [6]. - Dow Chemical's stock dropped by 3.4% after the company announced plans to sell several assets, incurring costs between $630 million and $790 million [7]. - Uber's stock rose by 3.2% after Wells Fargo raised its target price from $100 to $120, maintaining an overweight rating [8]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - International oil prices rebounded by over 1%, with WTI crude oil increasing by 1.39% to $67.93 per barrel and Brent crude rising by 1.87% to $69.58 per barrel, driven by strong demand [9]. - Gold prices saw a slight increase, with COMEX gold futures for July delivery rising by 0.02% to $3,332.20 per ounce [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in German government bond yields influenced by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, particularly due to the risk of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to a significant rise in international oil prices [1]. Group 1: Bond Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year German government bond decreased by 1.0 basis points to 2.507% [1]. - The 2-year German bond yield fell by 1.1 basis points to 1.838%, trading within a range of 1.889%-1.834% during the day [1]. - The 30-year German bond yield also dropped by 1.1 basis points to 2.961% [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The risk of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz led to a significant increase in international oil prices, raising concerns about inflation [1]. - The 10-year bond yield reached a daily high of 2.563% before declining to a low of 2.495% later in the day [1]. - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds increased by 0.102 basis points to +66.622 basis points, indicating a V-shaped reversal throughout the day [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is driven by factors such as the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and the uncertainty of monetary policy, but the intraday risk - aversion sentiment has declined [3]. - Copper prices are likely to oscillate around 78,000 yuan per ton in the short - term, with greater upward pressure and relatively weaker downward support due to the possible weakening of demand [14]. - Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, and it may maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - Zinc's supply is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. Demand remains stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment [59]. - For nickel, potential audits in Indonesia may affect production. Nickel ore is expected to stabilize, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak in the off - season, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the next week, with support from low inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weakening downstream demand [89]. - Lithium carbonate's mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be in a weakly oscillating state recently [104]. - The silicon industry chain has a relatively loose supply and slightly improved demand. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Factors**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and monetary policy uncertainty drive funds into the gold market [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, and their relationships with factors like the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9] Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term oscillation around 78,000 yuan per ton, with upward pressure and weak downward support [14]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [15]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper spot in different regions, as well as import profit and loss and other data are given [19][23] - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of SHFE and LME copper, and their changes are presented [27][28] Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is gradually weakening, low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short - term, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - **Alumina**: Guinea's Axis mine may have short - term production suspension, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation and price oscillation [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost is strongly supported, supply is excessive, demand growth may slow down, and it may oscillate strongly in the short - term with a BACK structure [32]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures and spot are provided [34][52] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually loosening, but the transmission to the ingot end is not complete. Demand is stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and inventory [59]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of zinc futures and spot are provided [60][68] Nickel - **Industry Impact**: Indonesian audits may affect nickel intermediate products and stainless - steel production. Nickel ore is stable, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related raw materials are provided [73][79] Tin - **Price Outlook**: Prices are expected to remain stable, with support from inventory and mine supply, and pressure from weakening demand [89]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of tin futures and spot are provided [90][98] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating recently [104]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided [105][111] Silicon Industry Chain - **Industry Conditions**: Supply is relatively loose, and demand is slightly improved. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. - **Price and Production Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon spot and futures, and production - related data such as output and capacity utilization rate are provided [117][138]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, which has led to a stronger dollar and increased risk aversion among investors [2][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices closed with a bullish opening gap but faced selling pressure, retreating to around $3,350 after being rejected at the $3,400 level [4][5]. - The market is reacting to U.S. military actions against Iran's nuclear facilities, which has heightened concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East [6][7]. - The situation has increased demand for the dollar as a safe haven, putting downward pressure on gold prices [7]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is testing the critical short-term support level at the 21-day simple moving average of $3,351, with a potential downward trend if it fails to maintain above this level [3][11]. - A failure to hold above the 21-day moving average could lead to a decline towards the 50-day moving average at $3,321, and further down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,297 [11]. - The next upward target for gold is set at $3,400, with a breakthrough potentially leading to testing static resistance at $3,440 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Central Bank of the Philippines indicated that interest rates may increase if inflation concerns worsen, but currently, there are no signs of such a situation [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank is monitoring inflation trends closely [1] - There is no immediate indication of rising inflation that would necessitate a rate hike [1] - The Central Bank remains vigilant regarding potential economic shifts that could impact inflation [1]

Market Review - Gold opened high at around 3452 but faced resistance and retreated, fluctuating between 3410-3423 during the European session, and eventually dropped to a low of 3383 during the US session before closing at 3405, forming a bearish engulfing pattern [1] News Analysis - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, have significantly boosted gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have reportedly damaged around 15,000 centrifuges, while Iran has retaliated with missile strikes, resulting in civilian casualties [1] - The situation remains uncertain, with Iran's foreign minister indicating potential flexibility in nuclear negotiations if the US pushes for a ceasefire, while Trump has urged Iran to sign a nuclear deal, adding to the unpredictability [1] - Key economic data, specifically the US retail sales month-on-month figures, are anticipated to influence market volatility [1] Technical Analysis - Daily chart indicates a transition from consecutive gains to a bearish trend, with a focus on the strong support level at 3380. The long-term trend remains bullish as all moving averages are aligned positively [2] - On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands' lower boundary and the MA20 moving average converge around the 3345-3335 range, marking a critical short-term support level. A breach below this could signal a deeper correction [2] - The hourly chart shows a five-wave upward structure from a low of 3293, with 3452 potentially marking the third wave peak. Currently, gold is in the fourth wave adjustment phase, and attention should be on signals indicating the end of this phase [2] Upcoming Risk Events - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is a key variable for the short term, with a high probability of maintaining current interest rates. The market will focus on forward guidance from Fed Chair Powell. A hawkish signal could strengthen the dollar and reduce gold's appeal, while a dovish tone may provide support for gold at critical technical levels [4] Trading Strategy - The current outlook for gold remains bullish, with a focus on buying during pullbacks, setting a stop-loss below 3380. Short positions can be considered near the resistance level around 3410, with the upper Bollinger Band at 3420 also acting as a significant barrier. The market is currently in a range-bound phase, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within the 3380-3420 range [6]

10年期美国国债收益率今日上行3个基点至4.43%，表现逊于德国同类债券。交易员削减了对美联储降 息的押注，预计年底前降息幅度为46个基点，而上周五为49个基点。经济学家表示，市场波动剧烈，投 资者涌向避险资产并推高原油价格。这可能导致10年期美国国债收益率进一步上升。 ...