Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, which has led to a stronger dollar and increased risk aversion among investors [2][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices closed with a bullish opening gap but faced selling pressure, retreating to around $3,350 after being rejected at the $3,400 level [4][5]. - The market is reacting to U.S. military actions against Iran's nuclear facilities, which has heightened concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East [6][7]. - The situation has increased demand for the dollar as a safe haven, putting downward pressure on gold prices [7]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is testing the critical short-term support level at the 21-day simple moving average of $3,351, with a potential downward trend if it fails to maintain above this level [3][11]. - A failure to hold above the 21-day moving average could lead to a decline towards the 50-day moving average at $3,321, and further down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,297 [11]. - The next upward target for gold is set at $3,400, with a breakthrough potentially leading to testing static resistance at $3,440 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Central Bank of the Philippines indicated that interest rates may increase if inflation concerns worsen, but currently, there are no signs of such a situation [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank is monitoring inflation trends closely [1] - There is no immediate indication of rising inflation that would necessitate a rate hike [1] - The Central Bank remains vigilant regarding potential economic shifts that could impact inflation [1]

Market Review - Gold opened high at around 3452 but faced resistance and retreated, fluctuating between 3410-3423 during the European session, and eventually dropped to a low of 3383 during the US session before closing at 3405, forming a bearish engulfing pattern [1] News Analysis - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, have significantly boosted gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have reportedly damaged around 15,000 centrifuges, while Iran has retaliated with missile strikes, resulting in civilian casualties [1] - The situation remains uncertain, with Iran's foreign minister indicating potential flexibility in nuclear negotiations if the US pushes for a ceasefire, while Trump has urged Iran to sign a nuclear deal, adding to the unpredictability [1] - Key economic data, specifically the US retail sales month-on-month figures, are anticipated to influence market volatility [1] Technical Analysis - Daily chart indicates a transition from consecutive gains to a bearish trend, with a focus on the strong support level at 3380. The long-term trend remains bullish as all moving averages are aligned positively [2] - On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands' lower boundary and the MA20 moving average converge around the 3345-3335 range, marking a critical short-term support level. A breach below this could signal a deeper correction [2] - The hourly chart shows a five-wave upward structure from a low of 3293, with 3452 potentially marking the third wave peak. Currently, gold is in the fourth wave adjustment phase, and attention should be on signals indicating the end of this phase [2] Upcoming Risk Events - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is a key variable for the short term, with a high probability of maintaining current interest rates. The market will focus on forward guidance from Fed Chair Powell. A hawkish signal could strengthen the dollar and reduce gold's appeal, while a dovish tone may provide support for gold at critical technical levels [4] Trading Strategy - The current outlook for gold remains bullish, with a focus on buying during pullbacks, setting a stop-loss below 3380. Short positions can be considered near the resistance level around 3410, with the upper Bollinger Band at 3420 also acting as a significant barrier. The market is currently in a range-bound phase, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within the 3380-3420 range [6]

10年期美国国债收益率今日上行3个基点至4.43%，表现逊于德国同类债券。交易员削减了对美联储降 息的押注，预计年底前降息幅度为46个基点，而上周五为49个基点。经济学家表示，市场波动剧烈，投 资者涌向避险资产并推高原油价格。这可能导致10年期美国国债收益率进一步上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to lead to a sustained sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 10-year bonds, as historical patterns suggest similar outcomes in past conflicts [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Since the escalation of tensions last Friday, the yield on U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds has increased by 9 basis points, driven by rising oil prices and heightened inflation concerns [1] - Historical analysis indicates that during previous conflicts, such as the direct attack by Iran in April 2024 and the renewed conflict in October last year, U.S. Treasury yields also rose sharply and remained elevated for about 30 days [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Market volatility is prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets, which is contributing to the increase in oil prices and may further push up the 10-year Treasury yields [1] - Current geopolitical tensions, combined with ongoing trade wars initiated by former President Trump, are exacerbating inflation worries and worsening the U.S. debt situation [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - As tensions in the Middle East impact energy prices, market traders may continue to demand higher risk premiums, potentially leading to further increases in Treasury yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - German and US government bonds are likely to continue lacking clear direction due to inflation concerns and risk aversion amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Movements - Eurozone government bond yields have generally increased slightly, with the rise in yields being consistent with that of US and Japanese government bonds [1] - The 10-year German government bond yield rose by 1.2 basis points to 2.544% [1] - The 10-year US government bond yield increased by 1 basis point, currently trading at 4.433% [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The research department of Deutsche Bank, led by Rainer Gunterman, indicates that the current market sentiment is influenced by inflation worries and geopolitical tensions [1] - Japanese government bonds are underperforming compared to Eurozone and US bonds [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - After disturbances, index futures still have room for recovery [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - On June 14, all four major index futures contracts for the current month declined. IF fell 0.65%, IH fell 0.63%, IC fell 0.83%, and IM fell 1.11% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 16,731 lots, IH by 6,001 lots, IC by 19,977 lots, and IM by 39,034 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 14,756 lots, IH by 5,232 lots, IC by 4,434 lots, and IM by 10,451 lots [1][2] 2. Basis Analysis - Data on the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented through charts, showing changes over time [4] 3. Position Changes of the Top 20 Members in Index Futures - For IF contracts, the long - positions and short - positions of the top 20 members in different contracts (IF2506, IF2507, etc.) showed various changes. For example, in IF2506, the increase in long - positions was 3,567 and the net change in long - positions was 14,111, while the increase in short - positions was 1,902 and the net change in short - positions was 11,933 [5] - Similar position change data are provided for IH, IC, and IM contracts, with some data not disclosed [5] 4. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is 1. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] - Important drivers include the Israeli attack on Iran, which led to a global stock market decline. The S&P fell more than 1.1%, the Dow fell nearly 1.8%. In China, the social financing increment in May was 2.29 trillion yuan, and other economic data were also released [6] 5. Policy and Market Conditions - The State Council executive meeting studied measures to optimize drug and consumable procurement and promoted the construction of "good houses." The three major A - share indices declined unilaterally, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1.13%, and over 4,400 stocks falling [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current Middle East tensions are redefining the concept of "safe haven" in the markets, with oil prices soaring and stock markets declining, while traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries are being sold off [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Oil prices have surged significantly, impacting foreign exchange markets, where traditional safe-haven currencies have underperformed [2][3]. - The initial reaction saw the U.S. dollar rise, reflecting traditional safe-haven behavior, but this was reversed during the New York trading session as stock markets rebounded [2]. Group 2: Currency Performance - Traditional safe-haven currencies, such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, have weakened against the U.S. dollar, showing a strong negative correlation with Brent crude oil prices [3]. - Oil-related currencies like the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar have performed well, aligning with their sensitivity to oil price movements [3]. - Other currencies displayed mixed performance, with the Swedish krona and New Zealand dollar underperforming, while the euro depreciated moderately, maintaining above 1.15 against the dollar [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has reacted unexpectedly, with significant sell-offs in global core sovereign bonds rather than the anticipated inflow of "safe haven" funds [3]. - The rise in actual interest rates was largely influenced by better-than-expected U.S. sentiment data, contributing to the increase in rates [3]. - Rising oil prices have led to increased inflation expectations, with the U.S. 10-year breakeven rising by 2 basis points and real yields increasing by 5 basis points [3]. Group 4: Changing Safe Haven Logic - The dynamics in the U.S. Treasury market are shifting due to concerns over fiscal and inflation risks, as well as expectations of increased supply [4][6]. - The weakening of the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is attributed to inflation worries and rising sovereign debt supply [6]. - Unless there is clear evidence that geopolitical tensions will lead to global growth slowdown or reduced inflation, U.S. Treasuries may take longer to regain their traditional safe-haven qualities [6].

以色列和伊朗之间的紧张局势加剧，全球股市遭重挫，道指跌超700 点。由于担心原油供应减少，原油价格飙涨、创2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅。避险情 绪则助推黄金收盘创新高，不过油价引发的通胀担忧短期压制避险买盘，美债收益率先跌后涨。 受以色列对伊朗发动袭击影响，美股开盘低开，随着冲突加剧，标普跌回6000点下方、道指跌近1.8%： 亚太时段，据央视新闻，当地时间13日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动袭击。以伊冲突爆发在全球市场引发巨震，WTI原油一度暴涨超13%后回落，黄金等避险资 产明显拉升，全球股市集体下挫。 欧股盘中，央视报道，以色列称伊朗方面向以色列发射了100多架无人机。冲突加剧一度推动10年期美债收益率下行至4.31%。不过油价引发的通胀担忧压 制避险买盘，美债收益率随后悉数转涨，2年期和10年期美债收益率均上行超4个基点。 美股早盘，据央视，以色列袭击伊朗导致多国关闭领空，全球多地航空股下跌。标准普尔1500航空公司指数下跌近4%，至5月7日以来的最低水平。美国航 空、美联航跌超5%。由于原油价格飙涨，能源、油气和光伏板块提振上行，其中油气板块涨近2.7%。 周五美股三大股指下跌。标普500指数跌破6000 ...

一觉醒来，全球股市遭重挫，道指跌超700 点， 标普指数跌回6000点下方， 德法意股指 收跌超1%， 英国富时100指数收跌0.39%。本周德国股指跌超 3.2%，丹麦股指累涨4.7% 。 欧元区蓝筹股指数本周累跌约2.6%。 由于担心原油供应减少， 原油价格一度飙涨13%， 收涨超7% 创2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅。 避险情绪则助推 黄金收盘创新高， 涨逾1.4% 。 不过油价引发的通胀担忧短期压制避险买盘，美债收益率先跌后涨。 发生了什么？ 以色列袭击伊朗，伊朗发起报复行动， 密集发射上百枚导弹 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊13日晚间通过伊朗官方媒体发表声明，称伊朗武装部队将采取武力行动，彻底摧毁以色列政权。 伊朗周五晚向以色列发射了"数百 枚"导弹。 此前据新华社报道，13日，哈梅内伊的国际事务高级顾问阿里·阿克巴尔·韦拉亚提发表声明，宣布美国参与了以色列的袭击。 声明中，韦拉亚提强调，此次袭击发生在国际原子能机构理事会通过反伊朗决议后，以及第六轮伊美核谈判即将开始之前，并将此次袭击描述为以色列面 对伊朗日益增长的实力而"绝望和恐惧"的表现。 声明中，韦拉亚提表示，当前伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队正在准备回应。 周 ...