Core Viewpoint - The international silver price has surged, reaching a new high since 2010, driven by macroeconomic factors, strong industrial demand, and increased investment interest in silver assets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Movement - On September 26, the London spot silver price broke through $46 per ounce, peaking at $46.62, marking a 30% increase over the past six months and a 59% rise year-to-date, outperforming most commodities [1]. - The price of silver has been significantly influenced by the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, which enhance the appeal of dollar-denominated silver [2][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver remains robust, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics, electric grid upgrades, and automotive electronics, despite ongoing efforts to reduce silver usage in photovoltaic cells [3]. - The silver market is experiencing a persistent supply gap, with strong industrial demand supporting price increases [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Silver ETFs have seen substantial inflows, with over 95 million ounces net inflow in the first half of the year, surpassing the total for the previous year, indicating a revival in investment demand [3]. - The Indian market has shown increased investment buying and inventory replenishment, contributing to the upward pressure on silver prices [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term silver prices are expected to remain influenced by macroeconomic conditions and gold price movements, with potential for further increases if the Fed maintains a dovish stance [4][5]. - The silver market is projected to remain in a supply-demand deficit, although the gap may decrease from 2024's high levels [4].

Core Insights - Silver is expected to challenge its historical high of $50, while gold prices may face some resistance due to a short-term rebound in the dollar [1] - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with Q2 GDP growth revised up to 3.8%, supporting the dollar's rebound and impacting gold's upward momentum [1][2] - The market is experiencing a divergence in the performance of gold and silver, with silver outperforming gold due to a recovery in the gold-silver ratio [2][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE index for August rose by 0.2%, aligning with expectations, indicating consumer resilience [3] - The second quarter GDP annualized growth was revised from 3.3% to 3.8%, marking a two-year high [2][3] - Initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations, reflecting a strong labor market [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The dollar index is stabilizing above 98, supported by hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials and a macro environment characterized by economic resilience and persistent inflation [2] - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is increasing, with a 63% probability of occurrence, which may elevate market risk aversion and support gold prices [3] - Central bank gold purchases are expected to continue, driven by global monetary expansion and de-dollarization trends, which will support gold prices in the medium to long term [3][4] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Asset Strategies International anticipates that despite signs of overbought conditions in the gold market, the upward trend in gold prices will persist due to ongoing central bank purchases [3] - Phoenix Futures and Options highlights that the current market dynamics, including expectations of lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, are favorable for gold [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic conditions, fundamental supply-demand dynamics, and increased investment interest, with silver outperforming many commodities in the past six months [1][2][3]. Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's initiation of a mild interest rate cut cycle has reduced the opportunity cost of holding silver, a non-yielding asset, as inflation declines and real interest rates continue to fall [2][4]. - A weakening U.S. dollar has provided additional support for silver prices [2][4]. - The correlation between gold and silver prices has been significant, with gold prices stabilizing at historical highs, thereby supporting silver prices [2][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver remains robust, particularly from sectors such as photovoltaics, electric grid upgrades, and automotive electronics [3][4]. - Despite the push for "silver reduction" in the photovoltaic industry, overall industrial demand for silver is expected to remain high due to continued growth in new installations [3][4]. - The silver market has seen a persistent supply gap, with strong industrial demand further driving price increases [2][3]. Investment Trends - Silver ETFs have experienced significant inflows, with over 95 million ounces net added in the first half of the year, surpassing the total for the previous year [3]. - The investment demand in markets like India has accelerated, contributing to the upward pressure on silver prices [3][4]. Price Outlook - Short-term silver prices are likely to be influenced by macroeconomic conditions and gold price movements, with expectations of continued strong performance if the Fed maintains its easing stance [4][5]. - The silver market is projected to remain in a supply-demand deficit, although the gap may decrease from 2024's high levels to around 4,000 tons by 2025 [4]. - There is potential for silver prices to challenge the historical high of $50 per ounce within the year, although risks of short-term corrections exist due to fluctuations in manufacturing growth and trade tensions [4][5].

早上好！先来看重要资讯。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为10.7%，降息25个基点的概率为89.3%。美联 储12月维持利率不变的概率为2.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为32.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 64.9%。 据央视消息，美国副总统万斯9月28日在接受福克斯新闻台采访时证实，美方正在考虑乌克兰提出的获 取远程"战斧"导弹的请求。万斯称，美国总统特朗普将就是否批准这笔军售做出"最终决定"。 而从万斯在节目中的前后表态来看，如果美国决定提供"战斧"导弹，也将由欧洲国家出钱购买后提供给 乌克兰。 当地时间9月23日，特朗普在纽约出席第80届联合国大会活动期间会晤了乌克兰总统泽连斯基。据美 国"阿克西奥斯新闻网"报道，泽连斯基当时请求美方提供"战斧"巡航导弹。 以军称一枚导弹自也门方向发射 据央视报道，当地时间9月29日凌晨，以色列国防军证实，一枚导弹从也门向以色列领土发射。以军防 空系统正在部署以拦截该威胁。 以军发布消息称，以色列中部多地拉响防空警报。随后军方表示，该导弹已被拦截。目前暂无人员伤亡 的报告。 联合国确认安理会涉伊朗制裁决议已重新生效 据央视消息，当地时间9 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-09-26 美联储官员言论鸽派 贵金属延续偏强表现 市场分析 经济数据方面，美国第二季度GDP终值年化环比增长3.8%，较修正值3.3%大幅上调，创近两年最快增速；上修主 要得益于消费者支出的意外强劲以及进口的下降；核心PCE物价指数终值由2.5%上调至2.6%。利率方面，美联储 新晋理事米兰公开主张美联储迅速降息，以避免对美国经济造成损害；米兰警告称，当前的政策利率远高于他所 估计的"中性"水平，正处于"高度限制性"的区间；美联储"可以通过一轮非常短暂的、每次50个基点的降息来达到 目标"。除此之外，美联储理事鲍曼表示，通胀已足够接近美联储目标，鉴于就业市场正在走弱，有理由进一步下 调利率；而芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，如果经济数据显示通胀正处于达到央行目标的轨道之上，且劳动力市 场保持稳定，那么利率可能会进一步下行。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-09-25，沪金主力合约开于860.00元/克，收于854.72元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.61%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于854.00元/克，收于858.12元/克，较昨日午后 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core View of the Report - The divergence within the Federal Reserve has increased, and the US economic data continues to be weak. The market tends to bet on the Fed's interest rate cut. Therefore, the gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the near future, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 845 yuan/gram and 875 yuan/gram. The silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10,250 yuan/kilogram and 10,550 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The divergence within the Federal Reserve on the future monetary policy path has increased. Fed Governor Bowman supports three 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, while Goolsbee believes the Fed should be cautious about further rate cuts. The US economic data in September showed that the preliminary value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52, the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 53.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 53.6, all lower than expected and hitting a three-month low [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On September 23, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 847.50 yuan/gram and closed at 855.44 yuan/gram, up 1.06% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 258,495 lots, and the open interest was 271,554 lots. The night session opened at 861.34 yuan/gram and closed at 859.88 yuan/gram, up 0.52% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 10,276 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10,349 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 811,054 lots, and the open interest was 508,755 lots. The night session opened at 10,442 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10,394 yuan/kilogram, up 0.43% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 23, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.106%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.533%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions increased by 2,078 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 458 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 398,549 lots, up 9.79% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,690 lots, and the short positions increased by 1 lot. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,332,060 lots, down 0.63% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,000.57 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,469 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 23, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -18.29 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,005.13 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 82.66, up 0.74% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 85.33, down 0.52% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On September 23, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 53,156 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 548,328 kilograms, down 9.60% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,000 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 55,200 kilograms [7].

Industry Overview - Silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 3.81%, reaching a historical high [1] - Gold prices have been consistently hitting historical highs this year, with silver prices also on the rise, as London spot silver prices surpassed $42 per ounce, marking a 14-year high and a cumulative increase of over 40% this year [1] - The main silver futures contract in Shanghai exceeded 10,000 yuan per kilogram, achieving a nearly 13-year high with a cumulative increase of over 30% this year [1] - Demand for investment silver bars has significantly increased, while orders for semi-finished jewelry products have decreased due to rising silver prices [1] Company Developments - Guiyan Platinum Industry is accelerating the establishment of an annual production capacity of 2,000 tons of Guiyan brand silver, aiming to solidify its position as the leading brand of green silver in China [2] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Yihua Tong to actively seek collaboration opportunities in fuel cell catalyst product research and development, as well as platinum resource recovery [2] - Zhongjin Lingnan possesses silver metal resource reserves of 5,722 tons, along with cobalt reserves of 20,807 tons in its affiliated mines [3]

早上好！先来看重要资讯。 今天下午3点国务院新闻办公室将举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，请中国人民银 行行长潘功胜，金融监管总局局长李云泽，中国证监会主席吴清，中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇局局 长朱鹤新介绍"十四五"时期金融业发展成就，并答记者问。 多国宣布承认巴勒斯坦国 据新华社报道，英国、加拿大和澳大利亚21日分别发表声明，宣布承认巴勒斯坦国。以色列总理内塔尼 亚胡当天表示，以方将在未来几天作出回应。 英国首相斯塔默当天发表视频声明说："为了恢复巴勒斯坦人和以色列人对和平以及'两国方案'的希 望，英国正式承认巴勒斯坦国。" 斯塔默还表示，加沙地带人为制造的人道主义危机和以色列政府不断升级的轰炸行动"完全令人无法容 忍"，"必须结束"。 加拿大总理卡尼在声明中说，加拿大承认巴勒斯坦国是国际社会协调一致努力的一部分，旨在维护"两 国方案"的可行性。 卡尼说，以色列政府持续在约旦河西岸扩建定居点，正在破坏巴勒斯坦建国的前景。以方在加沙地带的 持续行动已造成数万名平民死亡，并引发一场破坏性极强、本可避免的饥荒。以方这些行为都违反了国 际法。 澳大利亚政府21日发表新闻公报，宣布从即日起承认巴勒 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests maintaining a "buy on dips" approach for the precious metals sector, with a focus on the upward potential of silver prices [11]. Core Viewpoints - Influenced by the Fed's monetary policy expectations and potential tariff risks from the Trump administration, precious metal prices showed strong performance this month. COMEX gold and silver prices outperformed domestic prices. The Fed is likely to adopt a dovish monetary policy stance in the September FOMC meeting and cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Silver prices are expected to have stronger upward momentum compared to gold as the Fed's monetary policy turns accommodative [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Monthly Summary**: Affected by the Fed's monetary policy expectations and potential tariff risks from the Trump administration, precious metal prices were strong this month. COMEX gold prices rose 5.38% to $3,602.4 per ounce, hitting a new record high. COMEX silver prices broke through the $40 per ounce mark, rising 10.51% to $41.32 per ounce. Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting signaled the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle. Trump's team's actions have undermined the Fed's independence, and the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in September [11]. - **Market Outlook**: As the Fed's monetary policy becomes more accommodative, silver prices will have stronger upward drivers than gold. The current gold - to - silver ratio is 87, significantly higher than the historical average of 62.1 since 1971. The market has almost fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and a 55% probability of a further 25 - basis - point cut in October. The Fed may cut rates more than the market expects in the remaining FOMC meetings this year. The recommended trading range for the SHFE gold main contract is 801 - 840 yuan per gram, and for the SHFE silver main contract is 9,526 - 11,000 yuan per kilogram [11]. 2. Market Review - **Price Performance**: As of September 4, COMEX gold prices rose 5.38% to $3,602.4 per ounce, and SHFE gold prices rose 3.56% to 812.98 yuan per gram. COMEX silver prices rose 10.51% to $41.32 per ounce, and SHFE silver main contract prices rose 5.56% to 9,773 yuan per kilogram [11][29]. - **Position and Volume**: Domestic gold positions performed better than foreign ones this month. SHFE gold total positions increased by 0.44% to 439,900 lots, while COMEX gold total positions decreased by 0.34% to 443,800 lots. Domestic silver positions also outperformed foreign ones. SHFE silver total positions increased by 5.42% to 838,100 lots, while COMEX silver total positions decreased by 6.87% to 158,600 lots. As of the latest report date, COMEX gold and silver managed - fund net positions both increased [32][35][37]. - **ETF Holdings**: The total holdings of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope reached 2,224.4 tons as of September 4, and the total holdings of foreign silver ETFs were 27,665.94 tons. The total holdings of gold and silver ETFs continued to rise [40]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: The report presents various interest - rate charts, including the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year U.S. Treasury bonds, short - term Treasury yields, the federal funds rate, and inflation expectations [51][54]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The Fed's total assets decreased by $38.772 billion this month. The Treasury's TGA account balance increased, the deposit reserve scale declined, and the U.S. dollar liquidity tightened [56][59]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI and PCE**: In July, the U.S. CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8% and in line with the previous value. The core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3% and the previous value of 2.9% [64]. - **Employment**: As of the week ending August 30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 237,000, higher than the expected 230,000 and the previous value of 229,000 [67]. - **PMI and PPI**: In August, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49 and below the boom - bust line. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52, higher than the expected and previous value of 50.1 and above the boom - bust line [70]. - **New Housing Data**: In July, the annualized total of new housing starts in the U.S. was 1.428 million, significantly higher than the expected 1.29 million and the previous value of 1.358 million. The annualized total of building permits was 1.354 million, lower than the expected 1.386 million and the previous value of 1.393 million [73]. 5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The foreign gold basis (London spot gold - COMEX gold) increased, while the domestic gold basis (AuT + D - SHFE gold) decreased [12]. - **Silver Basis**: The foreign silver basis (London spot silver - COMEX silver) decreased, while the domestic silver basis (AgT + D - SHFE silver) increased [12]. 6. Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The report shows various silver inventory charts, including the combined inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX, as well as the inventories of SHFE, SGE, COMEX, and LBMA [90][92]. - **Gold Inventories**: The report presents charts of COMEX and LBMA gold inventories [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's easing expectations are intensifying and its independence is being questioned, which is beneficial for the safe-haven premium of gold. Gold prices are expected to show a relatively strong oscillation pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 780 yuan/gram and 830 yuan/gram [8] - The market is highly enthusiastic about trading easing expectations. Besides its financial attributes, silver may also be traded based on industrial demand, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9500 yuan/kilogram and 10000 yuan/kilogram [8] Market Analysis - Tariffs: Trump said India has proposed to reduce tariffs to zero, but it's too late. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump may declare a national housing emergency this autumn, and the plan may include exemptions for building materials. Bessent is confident that the Supreme Court will support Trump's tariff policy [1] - Economic data: The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose to 50.7 from 49.8 in July, a three-year high and higher than the preliminary value of 50.5, expanding for the first time since mid-2022. Factory output and new order growth reached the fastest in nearly three and a half years [1] - Employment market: The eurozone's unemployment rate in July dropped to 6.2% from 6.3% in June, with the number of unemployed people decreasing by 170,000, matching the record low set in November 2024 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On September 1, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 786.10 yuan/gram and closed at 800.56 yuan/gram, a change of 1.97% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 799.54 yuan/gram and closed at 801.58 yuan/gram, a 0.13% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On September 1, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9394.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9775.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 4.14% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 884,674 lots, and the open interest was 294,815 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9775 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9836 yuan/kilogram, a 0.62% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 1, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.225%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 0.606%, up 0.11 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On September 1, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 0 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions also changed by 0 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 495,904 lots, a change of 9.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,516,854 lots, a change of -2.80% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - As of August 30, the gold ETF position was 977.68 tons, up 9.74 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,310 tons, down 22.59 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 1, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -20.32 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1028.51 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 81.90, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.82, a change of 0.65% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On September 1, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 64,412 kilograms, a change of -11.69% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 653,358 kilograms, a change of -13.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9880 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 20,010 kilograms [7]