Core Viewpoint - Recent U.S. non-farm employment data indicates a slowdown in job growth, reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to potentially continue lowering interest rates to support the economy [1] Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The bond market is increasingly focused on the changes in yields of different maturities, particularly the spread between short-term and long-term government bonds [1] - Following the employment data release, market attention has shifted to the upcoming consumer price index, with expectations that inflation will remain resilient, potentially providing justification for the Fed to pause further actions [3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Some institutional investors are adopting a "steepening trade" strategy, anticipating that short-term bonds will outperform long-term bonds, thereby steepening the yield curve [3] - The difference between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields has widened to its highest level in nearly nine months, indicating a sustained interest in this strategy among fixed-income management institutions [3] Group 3: Economic Context and Future Outlook - Capital Group's fixed income portfolio manager believes that this strategy may still have performance potential under various economic scenarios over the next one to two years [3] - Market participants are also closely monitoring external policy developments, including potential adjustments to tariff policies and government spending, which could impact the bond market [4] - There are concerns that if external policy changes alleviate inflation pressure, it could provide support for long-term bonds, affecting the performance of the steepening yield curve strategy [4]

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant surge, with a trading volume exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan, setting a historical record [4][5]. - The average daily trading volume for A-shares last week was 2.8 trillion yuan, which dramatically increased to 3.5 trillion yuan today, surpassing the previous high from October 8 of last year [5][6]. - The current trading volume in the A-share market has outpaced that of the U.S. stock market, which had an average daily trading volume of approximately 3.4 trillion yuan in the first half of last year [6]. Sector Highlights - The commercial aerospace sector continues to thrive, with two indices hitting the daily limit up, particularly in AI application-related media and commercial aerospace satellites [9]. - A total of 44 ETFs in the market surged over 9% today, indicating a strong performance across various sectors [9]. - The proportion of trading volume in the commercial aerospace sector increased from just over 15% to 23.6% since December 22, although it saw a slight decline today due to many stocks hitting their upper limit [12]. AI Applications - The media ETF related to AI applications saw significant gains, driven by the recent listings of MiniMax and Zhizhu in the Hong Kong market, with the former rising over 30% and the latter over 60% [16][18]. - The concept of Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) is emerging as a new trend in digital marketing, potentially leading to higher advertising revenues due to more precise targeting compared to traditional Search Engine Optimization (SEO) [21][22]. - The performance of companies like Zhihu, which has seen a decline in stock price post-ChatGPT rise, illustrates the competitive landscape in AI applications, where stronger players are likely to dominate [23][25]. Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing rapid structural differentiation, with notable volatility in stock performances, particularly among AI hardware and battery giants, which are currently underperforming [31]. - Sinopec, after a brief surge due to restructuring news, has seen a decline of 10% from its peak, highlighting the unpredictable nature of market reactions [33]. - Gold prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $4,600, reflecting broader trends in global equity and commodity markets amid ongoing interest rate expectations [35][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The non - farm payrolls in the US in December fell short of expectations, leading to an increase in interest - rate cut expectations and a rise in precious metal prices. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and initiated a reserve management - type balance - sheet expansion. With the weakening of US economic data, the central bank's gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to move up. Due to concerns about potential US tariffs on platinum and palladium imports, their prices are expected to remain strong and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the US December CPI data to be released on Tuesday [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - US December non - farm payrolls fell short of expectations, increasing interest - rate cut expectations and providing liquidity support. Gold prices rose, with the US gold closing at $4,518 per ounce last Friday, up 4.1% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,580, and the lower support level is $4,460. Silver prices also rose due to the same factors and the continued shortage of silver spot. The weekly gain was 10.4%, closing at $79.8 per ounce, with a lower support level of $76 and an upper resistance level of $83 [6][9]. 2. Weekly View - The non - farm payrolls in the US in December were lower than expected, and the precious metal prices continued to be strong. The Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet. The slowdown in the US employment situation and the weakening of economic data suggest that the mid - term price centers of gold and silver will move up. The prices of platinum and palladium are expected to remain strong and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the US December CPI data [11]. 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple macro - economic indicators such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance - sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided in the given text [15][17][19]. 4. Current Week's Important Economic Data - The actual values and expected values of US December economic data are presented, including non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, ADP employment, and ISM non - manufacturing PMI [24]. 5. Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - The US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate decreased. It is expected that the Fed will pause interest - rate cuts in January and from January to May, and may cut interest rates 1 - 2 times after the new chairman takes office. The US is discussing the option of acquiring Greenland [25]. 6. Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2,832.02 kg to 1,129,427.74 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory decreased by 51 kg to 97,653 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 312,057.22 kg to 13,677,468.74 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 71,376 kg to 620,262 kg [13][30]. 7. Fund Holdings - As of January 6, the net long positions of gold CFTC speculative funds were 213,743 contracts, a decrease of 5,756 contracts from last week. The net long positions of silver CFTC speculative funds were 28,532 contracts, a decrease of 127 contracts from last week [13][34]. 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - On January 13 (Tuesday) at 21:30, the US December CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released; on January 14 (Wednesday) at 21:30, the US November retail sales monthly rate and November PPI annual rate will be released; on January 15 (Thursday) at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 will be released [36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the divergence in global central bank monetary policies due to the influence of U.S. President Trump's administration and its impact on economic uncertainty and market volatility [1][5][8] - Bloomberg Economics predicts that the monetary policy paths of major economies will become increasingly diverse over the next two years, moving away from the synchronized approach seen in recent years [4][8] - The "Trump variable" is identified as a significant factor affecting global central bank policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rate expectations and the independence of the Federal Reserve [5][9] Group 2 - The articles indicate that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be more flexible than previously anticipated, with expectations of potential rate cuts in 2026 exceeding market predictions [11][12] - Other major central banks, such as those in Canada, Japan, and Switzerland, are expected to announce continued rate hikes, while the Eurozone may maintain its current policy rates [11][12] - Emerging market countries, including Brazil and Nigeria, are anticipated to implement significant rate cuts, further contributing to the divergence in global monetary policy [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4,580 per ounce, is driven by a combination of economic expectations and geopolitical tensions [1][3][4] Economic Factors - The U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, reinforcing market predictions for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Lower interest rates reduce the holding costs for non-yielding assets like gold, increasing their attractiveness [3] - Since the Fed's three consecutive rate cuts in the second half of last year, the market has prepared for a more accommodative monetary environment [3] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing domestic unrest in Iran has created political uncertainty, triggering increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Heightened geopolitical risks typically lead investors to seek traditional "safe havens" during times of instability [3] Market Trends - Silver prices have also reached historical highs, continuing a nearly 10% increase from the previous week, while palladium and platinum have strengthened as well [3] - This indicates that current capital flows are not solely focused on gold but are reassessing the entire precious metals sector [3] Long-term Perspectives - Despite significant gains in gold over the past year, funds have not rushed to exit, with some asset management firms choosing to maintain their positions, reflecting a recognition of gold's long-term value [3] - A long-term examination of the U.S. dollar's credibility is also contributing to gold's status as a strategic asset [3] Potential Variables - A forthcoming Supreme Court ruling on key tariff policies from the previous administration may impact policy continuity and market stability expectations, adding another layer of global risk sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has reached a historic high due to multiple factors, including expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On Monday morning, international gold prices surpassed $4,580 per ounce, with spot gold prices rising by 1.7% to $4,585.26 per ounce [1]. - Silver prices also hit a historical peak, increasing by 3.80% to $83.025 per ounce, continuing a strong upward trend of nearly 10% from the previous week [1]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. non-farm payroll report indicated that the number of new jobs added last month was below market expectations, reinforcing the market's anticipation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to support the economy [1][4]. - The Federal Reserve has already implemented three consecutive interest rate cuts in the second half of last year, leading the market to price in at least two more cuts this year [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing deadly protests in Iran have increased the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets, with potential risks associated with a change in the Iranian regime adding uncertainty to the geopolitical landscape and international oil markets [4]. - The combination of a rate-cutting cycle, heightened geopolitical tensions, and a decline in the credibility of the U.S. dollar has contributed to the strong rise in gold prices [4]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Several asset management firms have expressed a strong long-term investment outlook for gold, choosing to maintain their positions rather than rushing to take profits [4].

Group 1 - The cancellation of export tax rebates for the photovoltaic industry is a significant policy change that will accelerate industry differentiation and clearing [4][7] - The estimated impact of the cancellation is a reduction of approximately 18 billion RMB in profits annually for the photovoltaic sector, given a projected export scale of 30 billion USD in 2025 and a 9% rebate rate [7] - Larger companies may have stronger risk resistance and new growth points, while small and medium-sized enterprises, especially those heavily reliant on exports, will face tougher conditions [7][9] Group 2 - The cancellation of export tax rebates represents a reform in expenditure distribution, with funds potentially redirected towards consumption and investment sectors [10][14] - The central government's fiscal revenue is projected to be around 10 trillion RMB in 2024, with export tax rebates accounting for over 20% of tax revenue [10][12] - The reduction in export subsidies is expected to enhance the resilience of exports, with upcoming data on December's import and export performance anticipated to be positive [14] Group 3 - The U.S. non-farm employment data released indicates a slight decrease in job creation but a lower unemployment rate, suggesting a cooling labor market [19] - Market expectations now suggest that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates until April, with an anticipated total of 2.2 rate cuts for the year [20] - The performance of global equity markets and commodities may remain positive in the first half of the year, contingent on the maintenance of these rate cut expectations [21] Group 4 - Three major risks for the A-share market this year include regulatory risks related to corporate disclosures, performance risks due to potential earnings misses, and reversal risks linked to overseas market trends [23][26][30] - The regulatory environment is expected to tighten as market speculation increases, necessitating cautious investment strategies [24] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market's innovative pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [32] - The potential listing of popular food chain Lao Xiang Ji in Hong Kong could enhance market interest, following the successful IPO of another food brand [35] Group 6 - Changes in QDII investment strategies are anticipated, with a shift towards public QDII products as private quotas are reduced [38] - The recommendation for investors is to diversify geographically and balance asset allocation, particularly as the A-share market heats up [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the non-ferrous metals sector [4]. Core Views - The report highlights a bullish sentiment towards non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, aluminum, rare earths, tin, lithium, gold, silver, tantalum, niobium, antimony, and uranium in the medium to long term [1][2][3]. - The macroeconomic environment is warming, leading to price increases in various non-ferrous commodities, with lithium, silver, tin, and aluminum leading the gains [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued price increases in rare earths and tantalum, which are less influenced by supply-demand dynamics [1]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown significant increases, with COMEX gold closing at $4,473 per ounce (+3.68%) and silver at $79.4 per ounce (+2.75%) [1]. - The U.S. labor market data indicates a slight decrease in unemployment to 4.4%, influencing market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, now holding 74.15 million ounces [1]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: LME copper closed at $12,965.5 per ton (-0.93%), while SHFE copper rose to ¥101,210 per ton (+2.60%). Supply disruptions in Chile and a slight decrease in demand from downstream industries are noted [2]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum reached $3,149.0 per ton (+1.91%), with SHFE aluminum at ¥24,455.0 per ton (+7.78%). The report indicates a slight increase in domestic production capacity but weak downstream demand [3]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin contracts rose to ¥352,910 per ton (+7.7%), driven by macroeconomic sentiment and supply expectations from key producing regions [7]. Energy Metals - **Nickel**: Nickel prices experienced volatility, with LME nickel peaking at $18,000 per ton before a sharp decline due to increased inventory levels and weak demand [8]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices remain stable around ¥460,000 per ton, with supply constraints expected to tighten further in 2026 due to export quota delays from the Democratic Republic of Congo [9]. - **Lithium**: Carbonate lithium futures reached ¥143,420 per ton (+18%), with expectations for increased demand from energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [10]. Strategic Metals - **Rare Earths**: Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and terbium oxide have increased to ¥626,000 and ¥623,500 per ton, respectively, with expectations for continued price growth due to stable demand [12].

Market Performance - The US stock market reached new historical highs driven by strong performance in chip stocks and a rotation into value sectors, with the S&P 500 index rising 0.65% to 6966.28 points, the Nasdaq composite up 0.81% to 23671.35 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing 0.48% to 49504.07 points [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a weekly increase of 1.6%, the Dow Jones up over 2.3%, and the Nasdaq rising 1.9%, indicating a continued recovery in risk appetite [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector led the market, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 2.7% to a record high, and notable gains in storage and equipment stocks, such as Lam Research up 8.7% and Intel rising nearly 11% [2] - Value sectors showed signs of recovery, with the S&P 500 value index up approximately 3% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 growth index which rose about 1% [5] Economic Data - The US labor market showed moderate growth with 50,000 new non-farm jobs added in December, below the expected 73,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, better than the anticipated 4.5% [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have shifted, with the probability of a cut in January dropping to 4.8% from 11.6% prior to the data release [3] Notable Company Movements - Major tech companies saw varied stock performance, with Broadcom up 3.79%, Tesla up 2.11%, and Meta Platforms rising 1.08%, while Nvidia experienced a slight decline of 0.08% [2] - Vistra Energy surged 10.5% following Meta Platforms' agreement to purchase its nuclear power plant electricity [2] Commodity Market - International oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures rising by $1.36 to $59.12 per barrel, a 2.35% increase [7] - Gold prices remained strong, with spot gold rising to $4496.09 per ounce, up 0.5%, and silver prices also increased significantly [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with the upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to confirm this trend, impacting the dollar index and gold prices [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized that lowering interest rates is crucial for economic growth, urging the Federal Reserve not to delay action [1][2]. - President Trump has indicated he has decided on a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, but has not disclosed the name, suggesting that the nominee must support rate cuts [2][3]. - The current Fed Chair Powell is under pressure from Trump, who has been vocal about his desire for significant rate reductions, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [2][3]. Group 2: Labor Market Data - The market is focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll data, with expectations of 60,000 new jobs added in December, down from a previous value of 64,000, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [1][4]. - If the actual non-farm payroll data is in line with or weaker than expectations, it may further validate the trend of a slowing labor market [1]. Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices are currently in a high-level consolidation phase after a recent upward trend, with prices moving from $4,300 to $4,500 [4]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to influence gold prices, with a lower-than-expected result likely to strengthen rate cut expectations and support gold prices [4]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices face resistance around $4,500-$4,520 and support near $4,450-$4,430, with a potential for adjustments based on the non-farm data [4].