1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the escalation of the Middle - East situation and the hawkish stance of the Fed Chair, the US dollar strengthened, leading to significant drops in gold and silver prices. The US and European stock markets closed lower, and US Treasury yields rose across the board. The 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 6.65 basis points to 4.267%, and the US dollar index rose 0.74% to 100.30. COMEX gold futures fell 3.68% to $4823.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 5.63% to $75.42 per ounce. Inflation concerns are high, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to cool, increasing the downward pressure on gold and silver prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 - Gold: The price dropped significantly due to the Middle - East situation and the Fed Chair's hawkish stance. The US stock and European stock markets closed lower, US Treasury yields rose, the US dollar strengthened, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 3.68%. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory increased, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main net long position decreased [4] - Silver: Similar to gold, the price dropped significantly. COMEX silver futures fell 5.63%. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory decreased, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main position changed from net short to net long [5] 3.2每日提示 - Today, focus on the interest - rate decisions of the Japanese, European, and British central banks, US new home sales in January, the first - time jobless claims last week, and the UK unemployment rate [4][5] 3.3今日关注 - 07:50 Japan's core machinery orders in January; 08:30 Australia's employment report in February; time TBD 2026 Huawei China Partners Conference; time TBD Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision; 14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference on monetary policy; 15:00 UK's three - month ILO employment change and unemployment rate in January; 16:30 Swiss National Bank's interest - rate decision; 16:30 Sveriges Riksbank's interest - rate decision and SNB President Thomas Jordan's press conference; 20:00 Bank of England's interest - rate decision; 20:30 US first - time jobless claims for the week ending March 14; 21:15 European Central Bank's interest - rate decision; 21:45 ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference on monetary policy; 22:00 US new home sales in January; 23:15 Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's visit to the US and meeting with US President Donald Trump, and they will have dinner together at 07:15 (Beijing time on Friday); next day 00:00 US household net worth in Q4; next day 05:45 New Zealand's imports, exports, and trade balance in February [12] 3.4基本面数据 - Gold: The basis is - 1.52, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures (neutral); the inventory of gold futures is 106,845 kg, an increase of 1,530 kg (bearish) [4] - Silver: The basis is - 32, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures (neutral); the inventory of Shanghai silver futures is 346,920 kg, a decrease of 6,843 kg (bullish) [5] 3.5持仓数据 - Gold: The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [4] - Silver: The main net position is long, and the main position changed from net short to net long [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expect government bonds to move in a range [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, selling out - of - the - money call options for glass [1][9][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Hold short positions moderately or stay on the sidelines for copper at high prices; strengthen observation for aluminum; stay on the sidelines for nickel; range trading for tin; expect gold, silver, and lithium carbonate to move in a range [1][14][17][18][20][21][22][23] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be strongly volatile; short at high prices for soda ash; buy on dips for rubber without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][28][30][31][32][33] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strongly volatile; apples and jujubes are expected to move in a range [1][37][39][40] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Adopt a bearish strategy on rebounds for May and July live hog contracts, treat September contracts with a range - bound view; eggs are expected to move in a range; corn is expected to move in a short - term range; be cautious about chasing long positions in the May soybean meal contract; suggest rolling long on oils and gradually reducing previous long positions [1][42][43][45][46][48] Core Views - The ongoing Middle East conflict, especially the war between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. It has led to fluctuations in oil prices, inflation expectations, and interest - rate expectations, affecting the prices of various assets [5][14][15][21][22] - Different industries and commodities have their own supply - demand fundamentals. For example, in the non - ferrous metals industry, the supply and demand of copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by factors such as mine supply, production capacity changes, and downstream demand [14][15][17] - In the agricultural and animal husbandry sectors, factors such as production capacity, consumption seasons, and policies have a significant impact on prices. For example, the supply and demand of live hogs and eggs are affected by production capacity changes and consumption seasons [42][43] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Pressured in the short term due to the Middle East conflict and the Fed's hawkish stance, but bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range due to factors such as changes in social financing, loan data, and geopolitical situations [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Short - term trading is recommended as downstream demand recovers slowly [9] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. The price is below the electric - furnace off - peak electricity cost, and the inventory is expected to peak and decline [10] - **Glass**: The downstream replenishment is basically completed, and the market is expected to be in high - level range - bound operation. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in a high - level range and is under pressure. Pay close attention to the duration and intensity of the war, global economic recession expectations, and inventory drawdown progress. Suggest holding short positions moderately or staying on the sidelines at high prices [14][15] - **Aluminum**: The price is in a high - level range. Strengthen observation as the Middle East situation has a two - sided impact on the price, and the supply crisis is still fermenting [17] - **Nickel**: The price is expected to move in a range. Suggest staying on the sidelines as the supply and demand are complex, and the price lacks a clear upward driver [18][19] - **Tin**: The price is expected to continue to be strongly volatile in a wide range. Range trading is recommended, and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [20] - **Silver and Gold**: The prices are expected to continue to be in range - bound adjustment. Suggest staying on the sidelines and trading cautiously, and pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the Fed's March interest - rate decision [21][22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to continue to move in a range as the supply and demand are both increasing, and pay attention to export bans and mining - end disturbances [24] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation is still weak in reality, but there are short - term opportunities due to factors such as low valuation and export tax rebates. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [25][26] - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. The demand from alumina production provides marginal support, and exports are expected to increase [27] - **Styrene**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile. The cost is supported by rising oil prices, and the inventory pressure is relieved [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile due to cost support and marginal improvement in supply and demand [30] - **Rubber**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile. There is a game between synthetic rubber support and inventory pressure. Do not chase highs, and wait for adjustment opportunities [31] - **Urea**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile in a range. The supply is still at a relatively high level, and the demand from agricultural fertilization and compound fertilizers is increasing [32] - **Methanol**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile in a range. The war in Iran may cause a supply gap, and the demand from the olefin industry is relatively stable [33][34] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the inventory pressure is increasing. Suggest shorting at high prices [35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile. The global cotton supply is increasing, and the domestic consumption is strong. The rise in chemical fiber prices has a positive impact [37][38] - **Apples**: The market is generally stable, with a two - tiered trading situation. The prices in different regions vary [39] - **Jujubes**: The price is expected to move in a range. The raw - material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the trading is relatively light [40] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Hogs**: The price is in the process of bottom - building. Adopt a bearish strategy on rebounds for May and July contracts, and treat September contracts with a range - bound view. Pay attention to policy support and production - capacity reduction [42] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to move in a range. The supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the demand is picking up. The futures price is at a premium [43][44] - **Corn**: The price is expected to move in a short - term range. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and pay attention to factors such as grain circulation and wheat substitution [45] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is in a low - level range. Be cautious about chasing long positions in the May contract. Pay attention to factors such as soybean arrivals and oil prices [46][47] - **Oils**: The price is in a high - level range. Suggest rolling long on oils and gradually reducing previous long positions. Different oil varieties have different performance due to supply - demand differences [48][49][50][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. The geopolitical conflicts and macro - economic factors such as Fed policies, inflation data, and supply - demand relationships are the main drivers affecting the market trends of these commodities [6][9][128]. - Different commodities show different trends. Some are expected to be strong, some are in a weak pattern, and some are in a wide - range shock state [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts broke out. The prices of domestic and international gold showed different trends. The prices of Comex gold and London gold increased, while the prices of domestic gold futures and spot decreased. The trend strength is 0 [6]. - **Silver**: It fell from the shock platform. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot increased. The trend strength is 0 [6]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum followed the retracement of gold and silver, and palladium was under continuous pressure. The trend strength of both is - 1 [25][28]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The sharp rise of the US dollar pressured the price. The prices of domestic and international copper futures decreased. The trend strength is - 1 [9]. - **Zinc**: It was in a range - bound shock. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures decreased. The trend strength is 0 [12]. - **Lead**: The decrease in domestic inventory limited the price decline. The prices of domestic and international lead futures increased slightly. The trend strength is 0 [15]. - **Tin**: The macro - sentiment was weak. The prices of domestic and international tin futures decreased significantly. The trend strength is - 1 [18]. - **Aluminum**: It was in a high - level shock. Alumina was running strongly, and cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and aluminum alloy is 0 [22]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, the smelting inventory accumulation and macro - sentiment resonated, and the shortage of the ore end supported the lower limit. For stainless steel, the fundamentals and macro - factors pressured, while the actual cost provided support. The trend strength of both is 0 [30]. Energy - **Crude Oil - related**: The Middle East conflict led to a sharp rise in international oil prices. The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil showed different trends, with the former mainly following the upward trend and the latter strengthening significantly at night. The trend strength of both is 1 [122]. - **Natural Gas - related**: The South Pars gas field was attacked, and LPG was running strongly at night. The cost - end geopolitical disturbances of propylene led to an expected reduction in supply. The trend strength of both is 1 [114]. - **Coal - related**: Coking coal and coke were in a wide - range shock, and thermal coal had a rising trend in the origin and stopped falling at the port. The trend strength of coking coal, coke, and thermal coal is 0 [57][60]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: PX and PTA were in a unilateral shock - strengthening trend, and MEG was strengthening due to increased Middle - East geopolitical risks. The trend strength of PX is 1, PTA is 1, and MEG is 2 [66][72]. - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Rubber was in a weak shock, and synthetic rubber was running strongly. The trend strength of rubber is - 1, and synthetic rubber is 1 [75][81]. - **LLDPE and PP**: For LLDPE, the cracking supply contracted, and downstream was resistant to high prices. For PP, the supply of various raw materials was restricted, and exports continued to be favorable. The trend strength of both is 1 [82]. - **Paper Pulp**: It was in a weak shock. The trend strength is - 1 [87]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. The trend strength is 0 [94]. - **Methanol**: It was running strongly. The trend strength is 1 [97]. - **Urea**: It was in a wide - range shock, and the fundamentals supported the price. The trend strength is 0 [103]. - **Styrene**: It was in a strong shock. The trend strength is 1 [106]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. The trend strength is 1 [109]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil had a short - term strong trend due to continuous geopolitical conflicts, and soybean oil had limited driving factors and needed to pay attention to the Sino - US consultation process. The trend strength of both is 0 [146]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Overnight, US soybeans rebounded slightly, and Dalian soybean meal might rebound and shock. The spot price of soybeans in the producing area was stable, and the disk might adjust and shock. The trend strength of both is 0 [151]. - **Corn**: It was in a shock state. The trend strength is 0 [155]. - **Sugar**: Raw sugar increased, and it was in a shock - strengthening trend. The trend strength is 1 [158]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to external market risks. The trend strength is 0 [162]. - **Eggs**: It was in a weak shock. The trend strength is 0 [166]. - **Hogs**: There were high inventory, high stock, high premium, and high positions. The trend strength is - 2 [169]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend strength is 0 [173]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It was in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to geopolitical sentiment disturbances. The trend strength is 1 [124]. Fibers - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the cost drove them to be strong. The trend strength of both is 1 [134]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It was recommended to wait and see. The trend strength is 0 [137]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: It was in a strong shock. The trend strength is 1 [141].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the second consecutive pause on rate cuts, with a voting result of 11 to 1 [2][16] - The median PCE inflation forecast for 2026 was raised from 2.4% to 2.7%, while the GDP growth forecast for 2026 was adjusted from 2.3% to 2.4% [2][24] - The number of committee members expecting more than one rate cut in 2026 decreased from 8 to 5 since the last December meeting [2][16] Group 2 - The labor market shows some stability but acknowledges downward risks, with the balance point for new job creation significantly lowered [3][18] - The Fed views the current energy supply shock as a one-time event, and it is too early to determine if price increases will spread to overall inflation [3][17] - The market is pricing in no rate cuts for 2026, with expectations that if non-farm data shows unexpected declines, the Fed's stance may shift towards recession and rate cuts [20][26] Group 3 - Asset strategies indicate that the Fed's meeting has reduced future rate cut expectations, leading to anticipated upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields due to inflation and liquidity factors [21] - Short-term volatility is expected, but the relative value of various assets is beginning to emerge, with a focus on opportunities in U.S. equities post liquidity tightening in April [21][9] - Gold, U.S. stocks, and Bitcoin may face challenges due to rising Treasury yields, while the long-term positioning for gold is advised to wait until the yield increase stabilizes [21][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle East energy facilities attack has significantly impacted the global energy supply, leading to a sharp decline in oil exports from Middle Eastern countries and affecting the prices of various commodities [8][9]. - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range unchanged, with a more conservative interest - rate cut path, reflecting a cautious stance [10]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, and different investment and trading strategies are proposed for different commodities [15][18][20] [29]. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The attack on Iranian energy facilities by the US and Israel has led to a sharp increase in the risk of attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities. Iran has retaliated, and the US President's attitude is uncertain. The conflict has caused a significant reduction in Middle Eastern oil exports [8][9]. - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate and has a more conservative interest - rate cut path. It also raises inflation and economic growth expectations [10][12]. - Cloud providers are experiencing a price increase wave, while many banks are reducing deposit interest rates. Samsung is facing a labor - management conflict, and Tencent's QClaw has a major version update [11]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market shows a bottom - out and rebound, but the Iran situation upgrades energy supply risks, so short - term risk defense is the main focus [15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Inflation expectations may ease, and the bond market gradually has odds. Consider gradually going long on the bond market on the left side [16]. Black Commodities - **Steel**: Short - term long positions in steel should take profits at high prices, and the previous short - straddle strategy should be held. The supply pressure of steel is not large, but the high inventory of rolled steel suppresses prices [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may be volatile and strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low prices. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in a wide - range shock [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: For silicon - manganese, it is recommended to wait and see. For silicon - iron, hold the previous short positions. The fundamentals of ferroalloys change little, and the price has limited downward space [21]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. Soda ash supply remains high, and glass has both cold - repair and ignition expectations. The industry is affected by geopolitical disputes and energy prices [22]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices will be under pressure and fluctuate due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. In the long term, the fundamentals are favorable, and the supply of raw materials is tight [23][24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, it will be in a wide - range shock. The supply is increasing, and the demand growth is limited in the short term, but the long - term lithium - battery demand is still good [25]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates, and the downward adjustment space is limited. The previous short - straddle strategy can continue to be held [26]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in a weak shock. Temporarily wait and see. The high inventory and difficult de - stocking are the core contradictions [27]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: In the short term, it is affected by increased imports and external conflicts, and the price is weak. In the long term, the reduction of cotton supply is beneficial to the upward movement of the price center [29][30]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price has pressure to rebound. The global sugar supply situation is controversial, and the domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure [31][32][33]. - **Eggs**: The short - term spot price is strong, but the supply pressure is large, and the upward space is limited. The futures near - month contract has a high premium [34][35]. - **Apples**: High - quality apple products may continue to be strong, and the market is expected to be stable and strong in the short term [36]. - **Jujubes**: Currently, it is in a weak shock. After the Spring Festival, the consumption enters the off - season, and the high - inventory pattern remains unchanged [37]. - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. The spot price is under pressure, and it is recommended to focus on short - selling near - month contracts [38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Middle East conflict has increased supply risks, and the market is facing a significant supply reduction. Oil prices are rising [40][41]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows oil prices, and the focus is on the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. It is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation [42]. - **Plastics**: The prices of polyolefins are supported in the short term, but the spot atmosphere is weakening, and there may be a small - scale correction [43]. - **Rubber**: Be cautious in unilateral trading. Pay attention to narrowing the price difference and selling put options after full - scale tapping [44]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is mainly driven by the cost side, with high short - term fluctuations. Overall, wait and see [45][46]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may be strong due to geopolitical factors, but if the war eases, the price may回调 [46]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price has both upward and downward drivers. The long - and short - term logics are clear, and it is necessary to grasp the market rhythm [47]. - **Asphalt**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price follows oil prices [47][48]. - **PVC**: It may be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of回调 if the market sentiment turns bad. The key is the reduction of ethylene supply [48][50]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Consider a cautious long - term strategy, but beware of price callbacks due to the cooling of geopolitical sentiment [51]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil. The supply is at risk, but the demand is increasing [52]. - **Pulp**: The price is under pressure in the short term, but there may be support. Pay attention to inventory and price increases of finished products [53]. - **Logs**: The demand is gradually recovering, and the price is difficult to fall. Pay attention to port inventory and the impact of the US - Iran conflict [53]. - **Urea**: It is expected to open significantly higher. It is recommended to short according to the trend of chemical futures [54].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's policy determination is expected to strengthen in the short term, potentially exacerbating global liquidity tightening risks[4] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to keep oil prices and the US dollar strong, complicating the Fed's dual mandate of controlling inflation and stabilizing growth[6] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted from two anticipated cuts within the year to less than one, with the timing pushed to the fourth quarter[6] Group 2: Economic and Market Implications - The current liquidity environment is under significant pressure, with major asset classes like stocks, bonds, and gold facing adjustment risks[4] - The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious stance in its March meeting, emphasizing uncertainties from the Middle East and inflationary pressures from rising oil prices[6] - Economic forecasts may be revised downwards for growth and upwards for inflation, reflecting heightened vigilance towards short-term risks[6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Allocation - High-valuation sectors, particularly technology, may face valuation compression, while defensive sectors like energy and utilities are expected to attract more capital[7] - Gold, despite short-term pressures from a strong dollar and rising rates, is anticipated to regain appeal as a hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks in the medium to long term[7] - The overall trend suggests that there remains room for rate cuts within the year, with oil price impacts primarily affecting the timing rather than the overall trend[9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On March 17, platinum and palladium prices rebounded. The PT2606 contract closed up 4.27% to 552.7 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 2.3% to 407.75 yuan/gram. Macroscopically, the US Treasury Secretary's remarks to soothe the market and the slowdown of the upward trends of oil prices and the US dollar boosted the precious metal prices. However, the US - Iran conflict shows no sign of resolution, oil prices remain high, and the expectation of interest rate cuts continues to weaken, which may continue to suppress the upward space of precious metal prices. Fundamentally, WPIC expects the global platinum market to have a supply shortage for the fourth consecutive year, and the imbalance between supply and demand may support the platinum price, but the narrowing gap in 2026 and the possible surplus in the global palladium market may limit the upward space of prices. In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a range - bound trend. After the Middle East geopolitical situation becomes clear, one can choose to go long on platinum at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of platinum futures main contract is 552.7 yuan/gram, up 3.73% from the previous value; the spot price of platinum (99.95%) is 552 yuan/gram, up 6.36%. The basis of platinum (spot - futures) is - 0.7 yuan/gram, a change of - 94.93%. The closing price of palladium futures main contract is 407.75 yuan/gram, up 2.31%; the spot price of palladium (99.95%) is 408 yuan/gram, up 3.42%. The basis of palladium (spot - futures) is 0.25 yuan/gram, a change of - 106.17% [3] - **International Prices**: The London spot platinum price is 2131.1 US dollars/ounce, up 3.61%; the London spot palladium price is 1601.571 US dollars/ounce, up 1.74%. The NYMEX platinum price is 2121.9 US dollars/ounce, up 3.69%; the NYMEX palladium price is 1613.5 US dollars/ounce, up 2.54% [3] - **Exchange Rate and Spread**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate is 6.8961, down 0.14%. The spread between domestic platinum and London platinum is 18.78 yuan/gram, up 11.94%; the spread between domestic platinum and NYMEX platinum is 21.08 yuan/gram, up 8.62%. The spread between domestic palladium and London palladium is 6.50 yuan/gram, up 80.54%; the spread between domestic palladium and NYMEX palladium is 3.51 yuan/gram, down 7.21% [3] - **Price Ratio**: The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium is 1.3555, with a change of 0.0186; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium is 1.3306, with a change of 0.0241 [3] Inventory and Position Information - **Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory is 200,716 ounces, with no change; the NYMEX palladium inventory is 582,441 ounces, with no change [3] - **Position**: The total NYMEX platinum position is 68,758, down 1.99%; the non - commercial net long position of NYMEX platinum is 14,690, up 6.20%. The total NYMEX palladium position is 15,679, down 2.57%; the non - commercial net long position of NYMEX palladium is - 156, down 196.89% [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - Black building materials: Coking coal recommends short-term trading; rebar suggests range trading; glass advises selling out-of-the-money call options [1] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper recommends moderately shorting at high prices or staying on the sidelines; aluminum suggests strengthening observation; nickel advises staying on the sidelines; tin recommends range trading; gold and silver are expected to move in a range; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be moderately bullish; soda ash recommends shorting at high prices; rubber recommends buying on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol recommend range trading [1] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be moderately bullish; apples and jujubes are expected to move in a range [1] - Agricultural and livestock: For live pigs, adopt a bearish approach on rebounds for contracts 05 and 07, and treat contract 09 with a range-bound view; eggs are expected to trade in a range; corn is expected to trade in a short-term range; for soybean meal, be cautious about chasing long positions in contract 05 due to capital disturbances; for oils and fats, recommend rolling long positions and gradually reducing previous long positions [1] Core Views - The global geopolitical situation, especially the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the futures market, affecting factors such as inflation expectations, interest rate expectations, and supply and demand of various commodities [5][6][14][20][21] - Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply and demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [8][9][11][16][17] Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. Due to factors such as the significant downward revision of the US Q4 GDP growth rate, the decline in consumer confidence, and geopolitical events, the index futures may move in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: They are expected to move in a range. Influenced by factors such as China's new social financing and credit data, Sino-US economic and trade consultations, and geopolitical situations, the bond market sentiment is cautious, and the overall bond market shows a differentiated trend [1][6] Black building materials - Coking coal: It is expected to move in a range, and short-term trading is recommended. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is generally weak and stable. The resumption of production in coal mines and the slow recovery of terminal steel demand have led to a weak trading atmosphere [1][8] - Rebar: It is expected to move in a range. The rebar futures price is currently below the electric furnace valley electricity cost, with a low static valuation. The inventory is expected to peak and decline, and the price is expected to be moderately bullish in the short term [1][9] - Glass: It is expected to move in a range, and selling out-of-the-money call options is recommended. The downstream replenishment is basically completed, the supply and demand situation is complex, and the price is expected to be in a high-level range [1][10][11] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: It is in a high-level range and is under pressure. It is recommended to moderately short at high prices or stay on the sidelines. Pay close attention to the duration and intensity of the war, the global economic recession expectations, and the inventory depletion progress [1][13][14] - Aluminum: It is in a high-level range. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply and demand situation is affected by factors such as the price of bauxite, the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and the geopolitical situation. The overall situation is complex, and it is recommended to be long with position control [1][16] - Nickel: It is expected to move in a range, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The supply and demand of nickel ore are tight, the supply of refined nickel is increasing, and the demand is general. The price is expected to be moderately bullish, but there is a lack of obvious upward drivers [1][17] - Tin: It is expected to move in a range, and range trading is recommended. The supply of tin ore is tight, the downstream consumption is in a rigid demand state, and the price is expected to be in a wide and moderately bullish range [1][18][19] - Gold and silver: They are expected to move in a range. Affected by the conflict between the US and Iran, inflation expectations, and interest rate expectations, the prices are in a callback state, and the mid-term price centers are moving up. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and trade cautiously [1][20][21] - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the progress of the export ban in Zimbabwe and the disturbances in the Yichun mining area [1][22] Energy and chemicals - PVC: It is expected to be moderately bullish. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is expected to maintain a high growth rate. It is recommended to operate within the range of the upward channel [1][23][24] - Caustic soda: It is expected to be moderately bullish. The demand from the alumina industry provides marginal support, and the export is expected to increase. The price is expected to rebound strongly at a low valuation, but be cautious about chasing highs [1][25] - Styrene: It is expected to be moderately bullish. Supported by the cost and with a low inventory pressure, it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [1][26][27] - Polyolefins: They are expected to be moderately bullish. Supported by the cost and with an improvement in supply and demand, the price has upward momentum [1][28] - Rubber: It is expected to be moderately bullish. Affected by factors such as synthetic rubber and inventory pressure, it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [1][29][30] - Urea: It is expected to be moderately bullish and trade in a range. The supply is at a high level, the demand from the agricultural and compound fertilizer industries is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be moderately bullish [1][31] - Methanol: It is expected to be moderately bullish and trade in a range. Affected by the conflict in Iran, the supply may be in a shortfall, and the price is expected to be pushed up in the short term [1][33] - Soda ash: It is recommended to short at high prices. The supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure [1][34] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: They are expected to be moderately bullish. The global cotton supply is increasing, the consumption is slightly decreasing, the domestic spot market is active, and the price is expected to be moderately bullish [1][36][37] - Apples: They are expected to move in a range. The market is in a state of polarization, and the prices in different regions vary [1][38] - Jujubes: They are expected to move in a range. The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the trading is relatively light [1][39][40] Agricultural and livestock - Live pigs: For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a bearish approach on rebounds; for contract 09, treat it with a range-bound view. The current supply is greater than demand, and the price is in a bottoming-out stage. Pay attention to factors such as policies, second-round fattening, and frozen product storage [1][42] - Eggs: They are expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are in a state of balance, and the price is close to the cost line. Pay attention to factors such as the rhythm of chicken culling, inventory depletion, and holiday备货 [1][43][44] - Corn: It is expected to trade in a short-term range. The supply and demand are in a state of balance, and the price is in a narrow range. Pay attention to factors such as the circulation of high-quality grain in the Northeast, the replenishment rhythm in North China, and the substitution of wheat [1][45] - Soybean meal: In the case of capital disturbances, be cautious about chasing long positions in contract 05. Affected by factors such as the progress of US soybean exports, Brazilian shipping, and Argentine production, the price is expected to be moderately bullish [1][46][47] - Oils and fats: They are expected to be in a high-level range. It is recommended to roll long positions and gradually reduce previous long positions. Affected by factors such as the conflict between the US and Iran, the supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are different, and the price trends vary [1][47][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global financial market's volatility is mainly driven by the geopolitical game in the Strait of Hormuz. The outcome of the US - Iran conflict will determine oil prices, reshape the global geopolitical pattern, and affect the US dollar hegemony. Short - term news and changes in the war situation cause high - frequency fluctuations in asset prices, and the risk of conflict escalation and supply - chain disruption remains high [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts have forced a shift in global monetary policies. The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates, and the Fed's March interest - rate meeting is in a dilemma. The market's expectation for the Fed's interest - rate cuts has been adjusted [2]. - In the domestic market, the active fiscal policy in 2026 provides support for economic recovery and market stability. The geopolitical game in the Strait of Hormuz is the core variable for global asset pricing, and investors should be cautious when dealing with cyclical products related to geopolitics [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The market is waiting for the details of the FOMC meeting. Key information includes the growth of social electricity consumption, new major foreign - investment projects, the Fed's stance, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest - rate hike, and the energy and Iranian situations [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The geopolitical tension has eased marginally, and the US dollar index is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. China's economic fundamentals are improving, and policy support lays a foundation for the moderate appreciation of the renminbi. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises are advised to adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index adjusted yesterday. The adjustment is expected to continue due to sentiment and external factors, but the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and its impact on the subsequent interest - rate cut path [4][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bonds rebounded weakly. The market focus is on oil prices, and the short - term stability of the bond market needs to be observed. A grid trading strategy is recommended [7]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely between 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton, and the volatility may gradually decrease. In the long term, the demand growth in downstream fields supports the long - term value of lithium carbonate [9][10]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The current industry is at the bottom of the production - capacity cycle. The photovoltaic industry is an important part of the energy - structure transformation. It is necessary to wait for the improvement of the supply - demand pattern and track the marginal optimization signals of the supply - demand structure [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East is affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Short - term Shanghai aluminum prices are dominated by the war situation. Low - cost long positions or call options can be held, and positive arbitrage can be considered [14]. - **Alumina**: The domestic supply is affected by maintenance and new production capacity. Overseas, the price of alumina is affected by the Middle East situation and the policy expectation of Guinea. Selling deep - out - of - the - money put options is recommended [15]. - **Copper**: The copper price is under pressure, and trading should be cautious before the FOMC meeting. The previous strategy remains effective [15][18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is affected by inventory and macro factors, showing a weak and volatile trend in the short term and a relatively strong trend in the medium term [18]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The nickel - stainless steel market shows an intraday shock. The nickel market is affected by macro factors and Indonesian policies. The stainless - steel market has inventory reduction and consumption recovery, but the spot trading is not active [19][21]. - **Tin**: The tin price is affected by the Iranian situation and macro factors, showing a weak and volatile trend [20][21]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate and gradually stop falling under the influence of inventory pressure and cost support [22]. Oils and Fats, and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The Brazilian shipment affects the soybean and soybean - meal market. The short - term domestic soybean - meal price is supported, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The rapeseed - meal has regained cost - effectiveness, and a positive spread arbitrage can be tried [23][24]. - **Oils**: The oil market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The international and domestic supply - demand situations are different. The market follows the trend of crude oil and is affected by bio - fuel policies. Attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [24][25]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The geopolitical situation dominates the pricing of oil. The oil price shows a volatile state, and risk control should be strengthened [26][27]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel - oil market is supported by the Middle East conflict and supply tightening, and the low - sulfur fuel - oil has a tight supply situation [27][28]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is strong. The supply is affected by raw - material shortages, and the demand is not strong. Attention should be paid to position control and hedging strategies [28][29]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum and palladium market is affected by the Middle East conflict, tariff policies, and supply disturbances. In the long term, the bull - market foundation remains, but short - term adjustments may occur. Attention should be paid to position control [30][31]. - **Gold and Silver**: The gold and silver market is affected by the Middle East conflict, inflation concerns, and the Fed's interest - rate expectations. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the long term and pay attention to support levels [32][34]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is under pressure due to the decline in spot prices and weak demand. The offset - paper futures show a range - bound trend [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are supported by the cost due to the Middle East conflict. They are expected to be strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to risks [37][38]. - **LPG**: The LPG market has both positive and negative factors, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [38][40]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is affected by the US - Iran situation. The price fluctuates greatly, and a positive spread arbitrage can be considered for the 05 - 09 contracts [41][42]. - **PP and Propylene**: The PP and propylene markets are expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz [45]. - **Plastics**: The plastic market is affected by supply reduction and demand feedback. The near - month support is strong, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [46][47]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is affected by geopolitical factors. The synthetic rubber may maintain a strong and wide - range shock, and the natural rubber is expected to stabilize in the medium - long term [50][51][52]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has a significant impact on the urea market, driving up the international and domestic prices. It is expected to trigger a price increase [53][54]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda - ash supply is under pressure, and the glass is restricted by supply expectations and inventory. Both are affected by the macro and other factors [55][56]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are supported by the cost of furnace materials, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coil limits the upside. The short - term price may rebound, but the height is limited [56][57]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore price is affected by negotiation events and supply - demand factors. The short - term support is strong, but the long - term supply exceeds demand [57][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking - coal and coke prices are supported by overseas energy price increases, but the oversupply problem restricts the price increase [59][61]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloys are supported by cost, but the weak terminal demand and high inventory of steel products limit the upward space [61][62]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The pig - futures price has fallen below the previous low. The secondary - fattening situation varies by region, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [63]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is supported by supply - demand expectations. The issuance of import quotas may narrow the domestic - foreign price difference, and the price is expected to be strong [65][66]. - **Sugar**: The sugar - futures price is affected by the Middle East situation and the slow sugar - mill crushing progress in Guangxi. The short - term oil price may fluctuate [66][68]. - **Eggs**: The egg - futures price has fallen. The supply is relatively abundant, but the demand is recovering. Selling call options on the main contract is recommended [69][70]. - **Apples**: The apple - futures price is strong, driven by fundamentals and delivery logic. The 05 contract is supported in the short term [76]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is stable. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price may bottom out in a low - level shock [77]. - **Logs**: The log - futures price is neutral to slightly bullish. The inventory decline reduces the pressure on the futures price, and the import cost provides support. A wait - and - see or light - long strategy is recommended [77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, with significant price fluctuations in various sectors. The short - term market is mainly in a state of shock, and investors need to pay attention to geopolitical changes and economic data trends [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The expectation of the easing of the Middle East crisis boosts global risk appetite, and domestic economic data from January to February is favorable. However, due to the influence of the Spring Festival month - shift and external uncertainties, the market sentiment needs to be repaired, and the short - term trend is mainly oscillatory [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Rising oil prices and improved economic data from January to February put pressure on the bond market. The short - term bond market lacks bullish factors, and attention should be paid to the sustainability and strength of economic recovery [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The continuous escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, tariff policy uncertainties, and rising South African electricity prices support the long - term upward trend of platinum - group metals [3]. - **Gold and Silver**: Precious metals are in a low - level shock. The market focuses on geopolitical risks and Fed rate - cut expectations, and the Fed's March FOMC meeting is a key focus [3][4]. - **Copper**: The replenishment demand of downstream enterprises supports the domestic social inventory reduction, and the US energy department's plan to support key mineral processing is a long - term positive [5]. - **Aluminum**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz intensifies the supply shortage of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East, and the short - term price is mainly affected by the war situation [5]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production is affected by regular maintenance and new capacity release, and overseas is affected by geopolitical situations, with mixed long and short news [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and there is strong support below [6]. - **Zinc**: The market is trading on macro - bearish factors. Supply and demand are under pressure, and the zinc price is expected to be in a weak shock [6][7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The shipping volume of nickel ore is seasonally declining, and the downstream of new energy is in the off - season. Stainless steel inventory is decreasing, but the consumer market is not hot [7]. - **Tin**: Geopolitical and rate - cut delay factors are bearish. Supply has a buffer, demand is starting to resume, and the market is in a weak shock [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is affected by the Middle East situation, but the long - term demand growth logic remains unchanged [9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the production capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the process of "anti - involution" and supply - demand optimization [9]. - **Lead**: Affected by macro factors, the supply is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to oscillate [10]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Geopolitical conflicts in Iran drive up the prices of coking coal and iron ore, providing cost support for steel. The production of rebar is expected to increase, while hot - rolled coil may reduce production [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term price is strengthened by negotiation events, but the supply - demand situation is still oversupplied, and the price may reverse quickly [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: In the terminal demand verification period, the black - series prices may face downward pressure, but the price has some support at the bottom [13]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The cost support is gradually strengthening, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations dominate the pricing logic, and the oil price fluctuates greatly. The supply reduction continues, and the market sentiment is cautious [15]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel oil market is strongly supported by supply concerns, and the short - term strong pattern continues [15]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical factors drive up the price of crude oil, leading to preventive production cuts. The demand is weak, showing a state of high price but low trading volume [16]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The chemical sector fluctuates with geopolitical situations, and the cost is supported by rising crude oil prices. The market sentiment is affected by the US attitude [17][18]. - **PP and Propylene**: The PP market follows the crude oil price. The supply of PP is reduced, and the export window is opened. The supply of propylene is relatively loose [18]. - **Plastic**: It follows the crude oil price. The supply is reduced, and the export may increase. The demand is suppressed by high prices [19]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment and geopolitical factors are mixed. The demand for rubber is bearish, but synthetic rubber has cost support [19]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply pressure is high, and the demand is relatively stable. The price space is limited, and the long - term supply is expected to remain high [20][21]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the mid - stream inventory is high. The supply return expectation and high inventory limit the price increase, and the demand needs to be verified [21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is differentiated. The inventory is high, and the export has a certain supporting effect on the market [22]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The current market is mainly trading on the weak post - Spring Festival demand. The price decline is supported by secondary fattening sentiment, but the upward driving force is weak [23][24]. - **Oilseeds**: The Sino - US negotiation in April is postponed, and the market shows a pattern of "buying expectations and selling reality". The short - term spot price is firm, but the medium - term supply is abundant [24]. - **Oils**: The oil market follows the crude oil trend, and short - term policies are favorable. It is expected to maintain a strong operation [25]. - **Cotton**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is volatile, but the cotton price is relatively firm. The supply - demand tightening expectation supports the price, and the import quota policy may lead to a small - scale correction [25]. - **Sugar**: The oil - alcohol - sugar transmission mechanism supports the sugar price, and the price increase mainly depends on the supply - demand fundamentals [26]. - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is gradually recovering. The inventory pressure is relieved, and the demand is expected to be boosted by the approaching Tomb - sweeping Festival [27][28]. - **Apples**: The futures market is strongly supported by fundamentals and delivery logic, and the short - term trend is strong [28]. - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on the demand side. The downstream sales are average, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [28].