Economic Status - The U.S. economy is experiencing a complex tug-of-war, with inflation declining but facing persistent resistance, while overall growth and employment data show resilience, masking deeper structural issues [1][2] - As of March 2025, the core PCE year-on-year growth rate is approximately 2.7%-2.8%, indicating challenges in the "last mile" of inflation reduction, largely due to structural factors such as supply chain regionalization and geopolitical tensions [2] - The job market shows significant mismatches, with a low unemployment rate of about 4.2% as of April 2025, but notable layoffs in the tech sector and job shortages in manufacturing [3][4] Policy Framework Adjustments - The Federal Reserve recognizes the need for adaptive adjustments to its policy framework to better respond to complex shocks, moving from an average inflation targeting (AIT) approach to a more forward-looking range management [6][7] - Discussions around expanding liquidity support tools, including the potential expansion of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) and the possibility of reintroducing yield curve control (YCC) under extreme market conditions, aim to enhance financial system resilience [7][8] External Shocks and Market Impact - The comprehensive tariff strategy initiated during the Trump administration is impacting the U.S. economy through direct cost transmission and supply chain restructuring, leading to varied effects across different industry sectors [8][9] - The erosion of the dollar's dominance due to emerging economies pushing for local currency settlements and central banks exploring digital currencies may increase volatility in the dollar's exchange rate and affect global asset allocation strategies [9][10] Future Outlook - The market is highly focused on when the Federal Reserve will begin to lower interest rates, with a clear "data-dependent" threshold set by Powell, emphasizing the importance of core PCE trends and labor market conditions [10][11] - The potential upward shift in the long-term neutral interest rate (r*) from around 0.5% pre-pandemic to 1.5%-2% suggests a systemic revaluation of capital markets, impacting asset valuations and increasing liquidity and repayment risks for high-leverage sectors [11][12]

金十数据5月16日讯，富达 2.3万亿美元固定收益业务的主管表示，随着特朗普的贸易战颠覆经济前景， 美联储政策制定者遏制通胀、同时最大化就业的目标正"把它们拉向截然不同的方向"。Robin Foley表 示，美联储"抗击通胀的努力不错，但就业仍有待观察"。她补充说，央行正处于"困境"。Foley发表上 述言论之际，美联储今年暂停了始于2024年的降息周期，因为特朗普加征关税可能会加剧通胀并打击就 业市场。Foley指出，过去一年，市场参与者对利率的预期出现了"非常不稳定"的变化。期货市场的交 易表明，投资者预计美联储将在9月份恢复降息，这比年初的预测要晚得多。 （英国金融时报） 富达债券主管：关税让美联储陷入两难 ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase has lowered the risk of a U.S. economic recession to below 50% and adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts from September to December [1][3]. Economic Outlook - JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, attributes the improved outlook to the U.S. government's recent reduction of certain tariffs on China, which has significantly lowered recession risks [3]. - The firm has raised its growth forecast for the U.S. economy, now expecting a growth of 0.6% in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 0.2% [3]. Inflation and Employment - A key inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, is now expected to rise to 3.5%, down from an earlier forecast of 4%, indicating reduced inflationary pressures [3]. - Although a slight decline in employment is anticipated later this year due to a slowdown in labor demand, the overall employment situation is not deemed alarming, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to act [4]. Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Timing - The adjustment in the expected timing for interest rate cuts reflects a broader consensus among major Wall Street firms, with Goldman Sachs and Barclays also pushing their rate cut predictions to December [4][5].

市场终于开始接受鲍威尔传递的信息：美联储对开始降低利率并不急迫。 鲍威尔表示，随着政策制定者寻求对关税政策有更多了解，由于特朗普的全面征税，通胀上升和失业率 增加的风险已经增大。这使得美联储面临两难选择。 Allianz Global Investors全球固定收益首席投资官Michael Krautzberger认为，央行最终将优先支持劳 动力市场，只要确信物价上涨主要是由关税造成的。虽然通胀飙升可能是短暂的，但美联储将警惕对就 业和增长可能产生的长期影响。 在鲍威尔上周重申了美联储在货币政策上的"观望"立场后， 交易员积极增加了对基准贷款利率在2025年 降幅不足75个基点的押注，且首次降息预计要到7月才会开始。 更令人震惊的是，期权交易员正在大举建立对冲头寸，以防范美联储今年可能不会放松货币政策的风 险， 其中一个日益增长的头寸预计美联储在2025年不会降息。 在最新的就业数据显示4月招聘依然强 劲之前，互换合约曾显示，最早在下个月降息的可能性很大。 未来几周，美国经济的走势和通货膨胀数据将对这一押注的成败起到关键作用。 华尔街预期分歧加剧！美联储面临通胀与就业之间两难 华尔街对今年降息幅度的预测从0到 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of tariff policies on the Chinese employment market and the broader economic implications. Core Points and Arguments - **Tariff Impact on Employment**: The estimated impact of tariff policies on China's employment market is between 1% to 1.5%, which is lower than the initial expectation of 3%. The actual employment reduction is estimated to be between 6 million to 10 million jobs [1][3] - **Export Contribution to Economy**: Exports contribute more to the economy than their share of employment due to rising labor productivity, a shift towards capital and technology-intensive industries, and the creation of new job opportunities in emerging sectors [1][4] - **Simplified Tariff Impact Assessment**: Key assumptions for assessing the impact of tariffs include that tariffs only affect goods trade, with manufacturing exports accounting for over 90%, and a baseline tariff level of an additional 34% [1][6] - **Non-Significant Employment Impact**: The non-significant impact of exports on employment is noted, with estimates suggesting a reduction of only 0.16% to 0.2% in employment due to tariffs, indicating that current employment pressures are not as severe as portrayed by some media [1][7] - **Sector-Specific Effects**: Light industries such as leather, wood furniture, and electronics are significantly affected by tariffs, especially those reliant on U.S. revenue. However, their overall impact on total employment is relatively small due to their low share in domestic employment [1][7] - **Economic Environment and Employment**: The slowing GDP growth in China has led to rising unemployment rates, with a structural contradiction arising from industries with high external circulation having stronger job absorption capabilities compared to those with high internal circulation [1][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Challenges in Service Industry Development**: The service industry faces challenges such as demand hierarchy, non-linear growth, and regional disparities, necessitating policy support and structural adjustments to increase its share in the economy [2][9] - **Artificial Intelligence Impact**: The development of artificial intelligence is changing employment demand, with some jobs being replaced, while a significant number of job seekers, particularly youth, face high unemployment rates [11] - **Labor Market Supply Changes**: Changes in labor market supply are influenced by generational wealth transfer, rising educational levels, and a preference for stable jobs, leading to mismatches in the job market [12] - **Policy Measures for Employment Stability**: Current policies to stabilize growth and employment include economic development, service industry enhancement, education reform, and improved job matching through information platforms [13] - **Pathways for Service Industry Development**: The service industry can develop through deregulation, allowing outstanding companies to thrive, while addressing potential structural unemployment among traditional industry workers [14]

美联储理事巴尔将于十分钟后就人工智能和就业市场发表讲话。 ...

美国经济的未来走向似乎正被两股力量拉扯。一方面，通胀预期的上升引发了市场的关注；另一方面， 就业市场的不确定性又为经济增长蒙上了阴影。纽约联储发布的最新月度调查揭示了这一复杂局面：美 国消费者的中期通胀预期在4月攀升至近三年的高点，而对就业市场的看法却出现了明显的恶化。 调查显示，消费者对未来三年通胀的预估中值在4月升至3.2%，这是自2022年7月以来的最高水平。这 一数据的变化可能暗示着消费者对未来物价上涨的担忧正在加剧。然而，这种担忧并非全面性的，因为 对未来一年通胀率的预期保持稳定，而对长期通胀率的预期甚至小幅降至2.7%。这种短期与中期通胀 预期的分化，反映出消费者对当前经济形势的复杂认知：他们既担心近期物价的快速上涨，又对长期经 济的稳定性保持一定的信心。 美联储官员正在密切关注这一趋势。他们试图通过消费者对未来物价压力的预期来评估政策变化，尤其 是贸易政策调整，是否会引发持续的通胀。关税政策的不确定性无疑是当前经济中的一个重要变量。关 税的范围和持续时间尚不明确，这可能导致消费者对未来通胀的不确定性加剧。贸易政策的变化不仅影 响到企业的生产成本和供应链布局，也可能通过进口商品价格的上涨传导至消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced volatility, starting at $3365.22 per ounce, reaching a high of $3414.41 before declining to a low of $3288.63, ultimately closing at $3305.77, reflecting a daily drop of $59.45 or 1.77% [1][2]. Market Influences - Hawkish comments from Powell limited bullish sentiment in gold, while positive trade news, including a breakthrough trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK, boosted market optimism [2][11]. - The Bank of England's 25 basis point rate cut pressured the euro and supported the dollar, contributing to gold's decline [2][11]. Technical Analysis - Gold is facing short-term moving average resistance, with indicators suggesting a potential for further declines to support levels of $3260 or $3160 [2][13]. - The monthly chart indicates a bullish trend, but the current price action suggests a potential for high-level consolidation or a peak if it fails to break above $3500 [13][15]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a range-bound adjustment phase until further bullish catalysts emerge, with geopolitical tensions and ongoing tariff policies providing some support for gold prices [11][13]. - The anticipated end of the rate cut cycle by the end of the year may reduce gold's attractiveness, leading to a potential peak and correction phase [11][15].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate change since January and March [1][3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates and will not use early rate cuts to address economic downturn risks [1][3] - Powell noted the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the Trump administration's new policies on the economy, stating that inflation effects could be temporary or more persistent [4][6] Group 2 - The U.S. economy's "hard data" remains robust, providing the Fed with more time for observation and assessment, despite a reported GDP contraction of 0.3% in Q1 2025, the worst performance since 2022 [5][6] - The U.S. trade deficit has surged, with a record $140.5 billion deficit in March, contributing to a significant drag on GDP [5] - Consumer sentiment has declined, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index falling to 52.5, the lowest since August 2022 [5] Group 3 - The job market remains stable, with 177,000 new jobs added in April, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, alleviating some economic concerns [6] - Analysts predict that the Fed may cut rates later in the year, with July and September seen as potential meeting points for a 25 basis point reduction [7][8] - The divergence in monetary policy responses is evident, as the Fed maintains its stance while other central banks, like the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, have opted for rate cuts [8]

新西兰联储官员Kawkesby：就业市场数据确认活动受抑。 ...