2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 投资评级 本期（2025.3.3-2025.3.7）非银（申万）指数+1.24%，行业排 17/31, 券商Ⅱ指 数+0.73%,保险II指数+1.72%; 上证综指+1.56%，深证成指+2.19%，创业板指+1.61%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：海南华铁（+28.43%）、新力金融（+10.38%）、中航 产融（+8.80%）、国泰君安（+5.89%）、九坤投资（+5.88%）; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：国盛金控（-5.14%）、海德股份（-3.12%）、建元信托 (-2.93%）、浙江东方（-2.34%）、中国银河（-2.22%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 增持 非银行业周报（2025 年第八期） : 中长期资金入市空间逐步打开,建议关注券商投资 机会 市场表现: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 0.73%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.66pct,跑输上证综 指数 0.83pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.51 倍，位于 2020 年 50 分位点附近。 本周,3月6日,证监会主席吴清在十四届全国人大三次会议 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][32]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the market for non-bank financials has shown a positive trend, with the non-bank index increasing by 1.24% during the week of March 3 to March 7, 2025. The brokerage sector specifically saw a 0.73% increase, lagging behind the broader market indices [1]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing efforts by regulatory bodies to facilitate the inflow of medium to long-term funds into the A-share market, which is expected to enhance market liquidity and improve the overall market ecosystem. Since September 2024, net purchases by insurance funds and various pension funds in the A-share market have reached approximately 290 billion yuan, reflecting a 22% increase in the market value held by these long-term funds [1]. - The report suggests that the ongoing consolidation within the brokerage sector, driven by regulatory encouragement, is expected to enhance industry competitiveness and resource allocation. It recommends focusing on brokerage firms involved in mergers and acquisitions, such as Guotai Junan and Zhongtai Securities [5]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Weekly Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 10,064 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 15.32% week-on-week. The average turnover rate was 3.26%, down by 0.34 percentage points [10]. - As of March 7, 2025, the total equity financing scale for the year reached 740.23 billion yuan, with IPOs contributing 53 billion yuan and refinancing accounting for 687 billion yuan [15]. Insurance Weekly Data Tracking - The insurance sector saw a 1.72% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.33 percentage points. The median comprehensive claim ratio for personal short-term health insurance among 124 insurers was approximately 38.20% [6]. - The report notes that the overall claim ratio for personal short-term health insurance remains low, with a long-term target of around 70% being more favorable for both consumers and insurers [7]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the regulatory environment, highlighting the recent announcements aimed at expanding the scope of financial asset investment companies and supporting insurance funds' participation in equity investments [25]. - It also mentions the potential for further monetary policy easing, as indicated by the People's Bank of China, which may support the financial markets [25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [8] Core Viewpoints - The government work report during the Two Sessions first mentioned "stabilizing the stock market," reflecting a strong commitment to boosting the capital market. Compared to previous years, the content related to the capital market has significantly increased, indicating the government's determination to enhance the capital market's role in economic development [4][14]. - Focus on the follow-up policies that catalyze the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, including the scale of two monetary policy tools and related institutional optimizations, as well as the revision of long-term fund assessment policies [5][15]. Data Tracking - In February, A-share new accounts reached 2.84 million, surpassing the previous 11 months [49]. - The average daily trading volume of A-shares was 1.7 trillion yuan, down 14.6% week-on-week [28]. - As of March 7, the A-share margin balance was 1.9059 trillion yuan, with a financing balance of 1.8941 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date average margin balance increase of 19.1% [28][29]. - The public fund sector saw the establishment of 20 new equity funds this week, totaling 11.47 billion units, a decrease of 54.4% week-on-week [28]. Investment Suggestions - The market's trading activity has significantly increased, suggesting a focus on internet brokerages with high trading elasticity and beta attributes, such as Dongfang Wealth. Additionally, with the recovery of the equity market and the rise of passive investment, it is recommended to pay attention to leading brokerages with advantages in equity asset management and ETF management, such as CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and Huatai Securities [6][16].

Key Points - The article discusses various important news and updates related to the investment landscape, including new stock offerings, economic data, and government policies affecting trade and real estate [2][4][5][6][7][8][11][12][19][20]. Group 1: New Stock Offerings - Jiangnan New Materials has a new stock offering with a subscription code of 732124 and an issue price of 10.54 yuan per share, with a subscription limit of 11,500 shares [2]. Group 2: Trade Policies - The State Council Tariff Commission announced that Canada will impose a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles starting October 1, 2024, and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum products starting October 22, 2024. In response, China will impose tariffs on Canadian canola oil, oilseed meal, and peas starting March 20, 2025, and a 25% tariff on Canadian seafood and pork [4]. Group 3: Economic Data - In February 2025, China's consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with food and tobacco prices down by 1.9%, contributing to a 0.54 percentage point decline in CPI. The producer price index (PPI) also saw a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% [5]. Group 4: Real Estate and Urban Development - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that all old residential areas built before 2000 will be included in urban renewal projects, with a focus on improving living conditions and community facilities [6][7]. Group 5: Corporate Announcements - Dongpeng Beverage reported a 63% increase in net profit for 2024, reaching 3.327 billion yuan, and plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan per share [11]. - Guomai Technology announced that its AI-related technologies have not yet generated commercial revenue, and the company is still in the prototype development stage [13]. - Warner Pharmaceutical plans to invest up to 500 million yuan in a new green manufacturing base for high-end raw materials and intermediates [18]. - Nuo Cheng Jianhua presented significant clinical trial results for its treatment of psoriasis at the AAD annual meeting, showing promising efficacy and safety [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting medium- and long-term capital inflow into the capital market as a stabilizer and ballast for healthy market operation [1] Group 1: Medium- and Long-term Capital Inflow - The National People's Congress representatives are focusing on implementing policies to encourage medium- and long-term capital to enter the market, with a strong push for index investment and innovation in ETF products [1] - The 2025 Government Work Report highlights the need for deepening comprehensive reforms in capital market financing and enhancing mechanisms for stabilizing the market [1] Group 2: ETF Market Development - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has been actively developing index investment and has implemented a special action plan to promote high-quality development of the ETF market, focusing on various aspects such as index compilation and product development [1][2] - By the end of 2024, the scale of ETFs in the Shenzhen market is expected to double, surpassing 1 trillion yuan, with a five-year annualized growth rate exceeding 50% [2] - The proportion of ETF scale to the circulating market value of the stock market is projected to increase from 1.9% to 3.6% by the end of 2024, with the number of ETF holders growing by 39% to 4.56 million [2] Group 3: Product Innovation - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has introduced various cross-market products, including the CSI A50 ETF and CSI A500 ETF, to allow investors to benefit from new productive forces [2] - Future plans include optimizing index investment, enhancing equity product development, and creating more investment options for different risk preferences [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting medium- and long-term capital inflow into the capital market as a stabilizer and ballast for healthy market operation, highlighting the role of ETFs in this process [1]. Group 1: Medium- and Long-term Capital Inflow - The National People's Congress representatives are focusing on implementing policies to encourage medium- and long-term capital to enter the market, with a strong push for index investment and ETF product innovation [1]. - The 2025 Government Work Report calls for deepening comprehensive reforms in capital market financing and enhancing mechanisms to stabilize the market [1]. Group 2: ETF Market Development - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has actively developed index investment in response to new trends in asset allocation and wealth management, implementing a comprehensive action plan to enhance the quality of the ETF market [1]. - By 2024, the scale of ETFs in the Shenzhen market is expected to double, surpassing 1 trillion yuan, with a five-year annualized growth rate exceeding 50% [2]. - The proportion of ETF scale to the circulating market value of stocks is projected to increase from 1.9% to 3.6% by the end of 2024, with the number of ETF holders growing by 39% to 4.56 million [2]. Group 3: Product Innovation and Strategy - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has introduced various cross-market products, including the CSI A50 ETF and CSI A500 ETF, to facilitate investment in new technologies and business models [2]. - Future plans include optimizing index investment, increasing equity product development, and promoting ETF regular investment strategies to create a favorable environment for long-term capital inflow [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the insurance sector, highlighting the benefits of long-term investment reforms and favorable government policies [5]. Core Insights - The long-term investment pilot for insurance funds has been approved, with a cumulative scale reaching 162 billion yuan, allowing major insurance companies to invest in the secondary stock market [1][2]. - The government has emphasized stabilizing the stock and real estate markets in its 2025 work report, indicating a supportive monetary policy environment that is expected to benefit liquidity in both stock and bond markets [2][3]. - The expansion of mid-to-long-term funds in the capital market is seen as a stabilizing force, with insurance funds and pensions significantly increasing their investments in A-shares, contributing to a 22% growth in mid-to-long-term fund holdings [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - Major indices have shown positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.19% week-on-week [8]. 2. Securities Sector - The report notes a total IPO underwriting scale of 6.912 billion yuan and refinancing underwriting of 85.252 billion yuan as of March 7, 2025 [14]. 3. Insurance Sector - The total investment by insurance companies reached 33.26 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2024, with stock investments growing by 28.29% year-on-year, accounting for 7.57% of total investments [1][3]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 777.9 billion yuan, indicating a net withdrawal of 881.3 billion yuan from the market, with a general decline in funding rates [27]. 5. Industry News and Company Announcements - The report highlights the approval of various financial policies aimed at enhancing the stability and growth of the financial sector, including support for technology innovation and the expansion of financial asset investment companies [34].

Core Viewpoint - The institutionalization of the securities market is crucial for its maturity and long-term stability, requiring a series of supporting measures to accelerate the transformation of the market [1] Group 1: Suggestions for Market Development - Promote interaction between the stock market and industries, creating new blue-chip companies in digital economy and artificial intelligence, similar to the "Seven Giants" in the US tech sector, which have a total market value of approximately $18 trillion, nearly a quarter of the total US market value [2] - Develop low-cost, low-volatility products centered around ETFs to adapt to institutional long-term holdings, as index investment has rapidly grown, with corresponding ETF products driving continuous inflow of incremental funds [2] Group 2: Institutional Transformation and Market Optimization - Optimize institutional transformation to create a new service system for the low-interest-rate era, as money market funds account for over 40% of public funds in China, necessitating a shift towards other fund types to enhance investment returns [3] - Improve pricing concepts and methods in the stock market to enhance valuation capabilities for new types of assets, focusing on the monetization and securitization of digital elements [3] - Establish a balanced evaluation system that combines functionality and profitability, ensuring that scientific pricing, market equilibrium, and the promotion of the real economy are key evaluation standards [3]

Group 1: Policy and Market Changes - The new "National Nine Articles" and "1+N" policy framework has systematically reshaped the capital market's foundational systems and regulatory logic since 2024, leading to significant positive changes in the market[4] - Over 50 regulatory rules have been formulated or revised by the CSRC since the introduction of the new "National Nine Articles," enhancing the regulatory system and effectiveness[4] - The total dividend amount in the market reached a historical record in 2024, with dividend repurchases far exceeding the total scale of IPO refinancing and reductions[4] Group 2: Support for Innovation and Long-term Capital - The government emphasizes the need for self-innovation and the integration of technological and industrial innovation, with the CSRC providing tools to support the listing and financing of innovative technology companies[4] - The CSRC has introduced multiple channels to broaden funding sources and diversify exit channels, promoting a virtuous cycle of fundraising, investment, management, and exit[4] - The push for long-term capital to enter the market has seen significant progress, with insurance funds and various pension funds entering the market, stabilizing it effectively[4] Group 3: Economic Transition and Market Stability - The capital market plays a crucial role in optimizing resource allocation towards strategic areas like technological innovation and green economy during China's transition from high-speed to high-quality growth[4] - The importance of capital market stability is increasingly highlighted amid ongoing financial market developments and changes, with expectations for more long-term capital inflows under the new policy framework[4] - Risks include geopolitical changes affecting market risk appetite and potential pressures from U.S. policies towards China, which could impact market confidence[4]

在记者问答环节，证监会主席吴清系统阐述了"强监管、防风险、促改革"的核心要求，为资本市场锚定了服务 实体经济、防范化解风险、深化改革创新的主线。 值得一提的是，吴清在记者会上强调，要打通社保、保险、理财等中长期资金入市的堵点卡点，多渠道增强战 略性力量储备，完善行之有效的稳市机制。 "这一系列举措既着眼当前市场的现实需求，也为资本市场的长期健康发展奠定了更坚实的基础，"武汉金控集 团党委书记、董事长，华源证券党委书记、董事长梅林在接受券商中国记者采访时表示。 梅林认为，长期以来，中长期资金的占比偏低，市场受短期资金博弈影响较大，波动性较强，打通社保、保 险、理财等中长期资金入市的堵点卡点，将从制度上优化中长期资金进入渠道，打破制约长期投资的障碍，为 资本市场提供更坚实的流动性基础。社保、保险、理财等资金具有长期性、稳定性的特征，引导其更高比例地 配置权益资产，不仅能降低市场短期波动风险，也有助于推动市场价值投资理念的深化，提升资本市场服务实 体经济的能力。此外，增强战略性力量储备与完善稳市机制将提高市场应对外部冲击的能力，赋予市场更强的 韧性，进一步提振投资者信心，维护资本市场稳定运行。 "这两天，谁要是不说 ...